Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Sep 30, 2020 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Sep 30, 2020
- Many years ago I bought $AMD for under $3.00....my devastating story and search for redemption
- $BWMX DD: Growth at a MORE Than Reasonable Price! Largest Position I've Ever Taken
- Here is a Market Recap for today Wed, Sept 30. Please enjoy!
- Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) IPO Launched. Shares at $11 & Asana (ASAN) IPO Launched. Shares at $27.
- Strategy too good to be true? Need sanity check.
- Do not buy Palantir, it's a mediocre company with bad financial
- How to invest in a bear market (helpful article)
- Palantir and Asana's IPO Tomorrow. Who is buying and what other stocks are you guys looking at right now?
- NKLA Postpones ‘Nikola World’
- Tesla competitor Nio can surge another 28% amid transformation into 'next iconic auto brand,' Deutsche Bank says
- $TUP - Tupperware
- Growth stock scorecard: DOCU
- Non-US citizen, looking to invest
- Restrictions questions
- Let's Talk REITs...Investing in real-estate without owning any
- Peter Lynch stock picks
- Cormedix (CRMD) - Prime Candidate for a Buyout (2+ years of DD)
- Morning Market Synopsis - Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2020
- Timing the market
- free spreadsheet shareholdings template for everyone
- Can someone explain to me how people make so much money selling Calls and Puts?
- Oil stocks to trust
- Classic Big Bank Dump
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Sep 30, 2020 Posted: 30 Sep 2020 01:06 AM PDT These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts. Some helpful links:
If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky.. See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Many years ago I bought $AMD for under $3.00....my devastating story and search for redemption Posted: 30 Sep 2020 04:49 AM PDT I bought 100 shares of $AMD for something like 2.95 probably 7 years ago or so. It was my first time investing and I had never researched the basics of the stock market. I didn't really know much but many websites said something to the extent that they could be the next big thing. So being a 22 year old, impulsive, and irresponsible I bought 100 shares for something like 305 with trading fee. I checked it for a few weeks regularly, nothing happens and I essentially forgot about it. I was discouraged that it didn't explode to the moon right away and I didn't do anything. I was very busy with work and school at the time and somehow I forgot that $300 dollars of mine was sitting in ameritrade flash forward to roughly 2 years later or so and my phone updates the ameritrade app. I'm like "wait don't I have money on here?" I recover my password and username and log in to see it's worth roughly 16 a share. I'm like "holy fuck I got like 1300 in here". So now I'm hyped and checking it every day. One day it drops to 12 dollars and I panic and sell it all and felt like like wolf of Wall Street. Well flash forward to last year and I get back into investing at a somewhat responsible and educated level and see that AMD is worth fuckin 88 a share. I contemplated layin down on the train tracks. AMD was one that got away. Who knows if I'll ever find another one. I just have to come to terms with the fact that I made a HUGE financial mistake at a young age. Don't panic sell. My asshole puckers every time I see people blowing the dick of $AMD and on Reddit that is A LOT. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| $BWMX DD: Growth at a MORE Than Reasonable Price! Largest Position I've Ever Taken Posted: 30 Sep 2020 07:28 AM PDT I will keep this analysis brief and let the quality of the play speak for itself. Please DM or comment with questions. Intro $BWMX is a Mexican provider of home goods. It utilizes a direct-to-consumer model to sell its products (read: MLM). While Reddit may be against MLMs, they often have success as business models. One famous example that Ackman could tell you about is Herbalife. EDIT: IF YOU ARE AN ESG INVESTOR DO NOT READ FURTHER. I am long $BWMX for three reasons. First, it is fundamentally undervalued, given its current financial performance. A normalization of P/E to a more appropriate multiple should yield an upside of at least 50%, with 100% being a reasonable longer term target (I will expand on this later). Second, $BWMX enjoys two Covid-19 related headwinds, which have been creating a flywheel. Evidence of continued flywheel momentum is mounting every day. Finally, there are a large number of incentives for management to behave appropriately, and help $BWMX capitalize on the potential from these prior two factors. I will discuss each of these reasons in turn, from last to first. Management The company is largely family operated, with Andre Campos serving as CEO, and brother Luis Campos serving as chairman of the board. There is significant insider ownership, aligning the interests of the Campos brothers with shareholders. Institutions own only 1% of the float, which is only 2 million shares (this is an oversimplification which I address later, but understand that this is a low-float company by any measure). In effect, the company is run by an owner-operator. The management team has extensive experience as they've been growing $BWMX or similar companies for years. All of this is important, given the fact that overseas companies are often written off due to their opacity; this is not a shell company or one without direction. Here are brief write ups of key executives:
Note that Martin Werner oversaw the reverse merger transaction which saw $BWMX listed on the NASDAQ. Flywheel Management has recently been extremely successful at creating a flywheel effect during Covid-19. First, demand for homegoods and cleaning supplies (which are $BWMX's primary offerrings) has dramatically risen. This can be seen in Google Trends data for "cleaning products" or "home goods." Further evincing this demand spike are the dramatically increasing viewership numbers on Betterware's Youtube videos. For those who don't know, the company releases monthly "Catalogos", detailing new additions to the product offering. Consider the consistent increase in viewership for these successive releases: Catalogo 8 will soon be far and away the most viewed release, considering it was released just one week ago. Management has commented on this demand spike, saying: "And I think that this situation of COVID-19 came to accelerate our process to convince people about the importance of cleaning and organization at home. Then we believe that this is something that will remain. People now are more conscious about cleaning and organization, and we are the right providers for that." Of course, it's hard to know whether this will be a permanent lifestyle shift, but as part of my research I've spoken to several Mexican friends who have mentioned that Betterware is increasingly popular and an increasing household name. Part of that is also due to the other half of the flywheel: the increasing number of Betterware representatives who are selling the company's products as a means to diversify their income stream / earn after having been laid off. To again quote from the earnings call: "And obviously, during the pandemic and during the COVID-19, our growth came mainly from growth in associates and distributors. So these are people that have joined our business, that have joined our model and we expect to remain being part of the model and continue growing from there." Essentially, we have an MLM model where the product is actually in high demand, and there is a corresponding rise in sellers as people diversify income streams due to the pandemic. However, the pandemic has only accelerated this effect, which was already occurring. This is crucial, because it means that we are not simply seeing demand be pulled forward; see below. Financials The company's financials speak for themselves and demonstrate that we are seeing acceleration augmenting already strong performance (note that I've put the financials below in millions of USD). I'd encourage everyone to play around with the numbers themselves and do their own forecasting. I've been highly conservative here, and have simply forecasted revenue, etc. based on down-ward rounded straight line average performance (so this is not even accounting for Covid-19 tailwinds):
As you can see, the company is trading at 2.8x sales or 14x EPS with these conservative estimates. But adjusting more reasonably for Covid-19, it's more like 2.5x sales or 12x P/E. Those are numbers you might expect to pay for a solid company in an industry like Insurance or Auto Parts—not a rapidly growing company in an emerging market. Making the mispricing of $BWMX even more apparent is the fact comparable MLM companies universally have declining YoY EBITDA. Many of them enjoy comparable or higher multiples, and yet they are money losers, while $BWMX is printing FCF: The most comparable company is Natura and Co.—they're growing revenue at a comparable rate—but they trade at a ridiculous P/E of 183.4. Essentially, BWMX is an industry leader, is a beneficiary of Covid-19, and yet is being treated like mature industrial stock. This is not to mention other initiatives, such as the company's increased focus on digital marketing and its successful trial expansion into Guatemala (Google the earning's call to learn more). Discovery There are several reasons why $BWMX has not yet been efficiently priced. The most obvious is the low float. After all, it's scarcely worth it for an institution to begin a position at this point, because there are so few shares available. However, with an increasing number of warrants expanding the share count there will be ample room for the fairer pricing that comes with institutional attention (Note: the warrants, $BWXMF, are also severely mispriced). With full warrant conversion, we could see an additional 4.5 million shares and institutional entry. I talk more about the pros and cons of this in the "Risks" section. Second, and relatedly, there is no sell-side coverage for the stock. As we've seen time and time again, sell-side coverage is responsible for massive price movements and price discovery. For instance, NIO recently jumped 5% on a bullish report from DB. Finally, the company hasn't been around for very long. It was created through a reverse merger with a S.P.-A.-C. (formatting to avoid Auto-mod), which means that most people simply haven't heard of it. If you check the Stocktwits message board (I know, I know, Stocktwits…) you'll see that it has under 200 followers, which I'm using as a rough proxy for market following. I believe that the company will not go undiscovered for long for three reasons. First, the market, while not perfectly efficient by any means, is not this inefficient. I'm seeing increasing chatter on social media about this ticker, which is actually meaningful in terms of discovery, since many institutional bigwigs are on Fintwit. Secondly, earnings are right around the corner (in early November), and it becomes increasingly difficult to ignore a company putting up the financials of $BWMX if they do so for several consecutive quarters. Finally, the company itself is aware of the fact that it's undervalued, and has committed to better IR. Per the last earnings call: "I mean, as you said before, we just listed on March 16 (sic) [13], a few months ago. We are strengthening our strategy in order to have more activity in this regard in the future. In fact, beginning in September, you will see more and more activity from our side because we really want (inaudible) [our investors] to know us very well, to understand what our business model represents and to be confident about our consistency in terms of growth and profitability." Risks The main risks for the company are geo-political and legal. First, given the nature of MLMs, such companies are often subjected to unfavorable changes in the law. I don't know enough about Mexican MLM law to comment further, but my expectation is that—because it's Mexico—regulations are relatively lax. Still, this is an undeniable risk. The geo-political risk is obvious. Given that this is a foreign company listed on the NASDAQ, it's entirely possible that they'll face the ire of Trump. And further, USD/Peso currency fluctuations will have a noticeable impact on financial results. As a $BWMX investor, you'll want a strong peso. Another thing worth discussing is the possibility of dilution. There exist warrants trading under $BWXMF which have a dividend-protected strike price of $11.50 (so, effectively, $10 with the current dividend). When and if these are tendered, they will increase the float by ~4.5 million shares. This could be good for institutional involvement, but it obviously will not be good from a pure supply / demand perspective. In fact, I'm confident that the recent dip is at least somewhat attributable to people cashing in some of their warrants. However, I think that conversion will occur slowly, because the potential of the company is so obvious. I could also see an activist investor buying up warrants and challenging any tender offer that occurs. If a tender offer does occur, you should see 30% upside or more on the warrants immediately (which is actually a risk, because I think that's still undervaluing them). Of course, all of the regular risks—such as a new market entrant or a failure to monetize their distribution network—apply. But the above two risks are the ones which I believe could serve to significantly limit upside. Yet, given the ridiculous valuations in U.S. equities, I'd be remiss if I didn't say that the risk / reward here seems favorable. Summary Over time, $BWMX will be more fairly priced, assuming that it continues to perform. It's hard to assign a price target, but if it maintained the pace of its revenue growth, this would be at least a bagger in a year or two. The upside will be realized through continued financial performance accelerated by the Covid-19 flywheel, and catalyzed by discovery and improved IR communication. The risks are mainly legal and geo-poltical in nature. I'd encourage everyone to strongly consider $BWMX, and I am long. Disclaimer: I have a large position in $BWMX. I am not a financial advisor. Do your own DD. Understand risk factors before making an investment. This is not financial advice. Etc :) [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Here is a Market Recap for today Wed, Sept 30. Please enjoy! Posted: 30 Sep 2020 01:34 PM PDT PsychoMarket Recap - Wednesday, September 30, 2020 Stocks traded higher throughout the day before pulling back steeply in the last hour of trading in another extremely volatile day. While major benchmarks are up around 4% in the last five trading days, intraday volatility has been extreme, making options trading difficult. Traders weighed a wild presidential debate and developments among Congressional lawmakers for further fiscal stimulus. Stocks recovered in the last 20 minutes of the market, capping off an extremely volatile final hour. The Nasdaq (QQQ) finished the day 0.68% up, the S&P (SPY) finished the day 0.59% up, and the Dow (DIA) led the day finishing 0.99% up. Yesterday's presidential debate between Pres. Trump and Joe Biden proved to be an extremely contentious affairs, with Trump frequently interrupting both Biden the moderator, Chris Wallace who could not control the candidates, and a slew of highly personal attacks from both sides. The Guardian branded the debate 'a national humiliation'. With the election in 36 days, analysts expect volatility to increase as November 3rd gets closer. Tom Lee, managing partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said "I think markets are really nervous into those 36 days [before the election] and one of the things we have to think about is, when does nervousness price in the worst is yet to come? When do you think the worst is priced in? There's $4.3 trillion in cash on the sidelines. I don't think in the history of any financial market in the world do you ever have a top when there's 20% of the equity market sitting in cash. Investor cash — that's excluding the private equity cash, the record cash held by corporates too. So you've got tons of dry powder. People are bearish." The election comes against a dire economic situation, especially in the labor, with major corporations recently announcing new rounds of job cuts. Disney (DIS) announced it was slashing 28,000 jobs in their theme parks, cruise line, and retailers. Shell (RDS) announced it was cutting 9,000 jobs as the pandemic has affected the demand for oil. According to CNN business, tens of thousands of airline jobs could be lost as soon as tomorrow, as a federal prohibition on job cuts in the industry expires. Airline executives say they are prepared to keep workers only if Congress approves $25 billion in grants. Congressional lawmakers and the Trump administration are attempting to come to a deal in the near-term to provide additional fiscal relief to the families and small businesses that are struggling in the pandemic. House Democrats are pushing forward with a new $2.2 trillion proposal as speaker Pelosi and the White House make a final attempt to strike a deal before the election. Today, Pelosi and Mnuchin were unable to strike a deal after a 90-minute meeting. The pair said they will continue discussion as they continue to work to craft legislation that could pass both Houses of Congress. House Democrats are holding a vote on their plan today, a largely symbolic gesture as McConnel has already opposed the plan. Republicans are rumored to have a $1-1.5 trillion ceiling for any new relief legislation. Highlights
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| Posted: 30 Sep 2020 11:03 AM PDT Palantir IPO debuts around $10.50, slightly higher than the expected $7.25. Currently trending around the $11 mark. Asana IPO debuts around $27, higher than expected $21. Currently trending around the $29. Both of these debuts have exceeded initial expectations, but this can be typical due to primary market swing before selling off in the open market. For those who want to get in, wait for the dips. Good luck out there. Edit, Current Volume in the last hour [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Strategy too good to be true? Need sanity check. Posted: 30 Sep 2020 07:38 AM PDT I have some good mid-level coding skills and I've been investing for a about 7 years, so I think I know the basics-ish. I recently decided to have some fun developing buying/selling strategies based entirely on technical triggers. I then put the strategy to the test by simulating 100s of random start dates between 1990-2010, and then letting the algorithm run for 10 years. My first strategy is routinely getting an annualized 15-20% yearly returns over 10 years, where my benchmark is a strategy involving only investing the a S&P index fund, which averages around 5-8%. I feel like I'm missing something... this seems too good. I've checked the code multiple times, and everything checks out. Can anyone give me a sanity check? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Do not buy Palantir, it's a mediocre company with bad financial Posted: 30 Sep 2020 12:54 PM PDT Palantir was founded in 2003, over 17 years ago.
The company couldn't even hit $1 billion revenue AFTER 17 years. On top of that they're losing $0.78 for every $1 of revenue. This is a shitty company, worse than Uber/Lyft. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| How to invest in a bear market (helpful article) Posted: 30 Sep 2020 07:01 AM PDT Found this article and found it really helpful. Not saying that we're in a bear market, but these are principles we (new investors) should keep in mind all the time. Also it is not my article, all credit to bankeronwheels.com
When and how to invest in stocks? If you have directly or indirectly prepared for a period of financial stress and have available cash you may consider starting investing when there is a market crash. A good strategy is to build rules and stick to them — either based on certain index levels, for example S&P 500 at 2700 invest 20% of savings, 2500 another 20% etc. or based on timing (slicing every few weeks since we have no clarity which way the market may go and when it will bottom out)
One of the common mistakes we see is people chasing upward trends because of FOMO — Fear of Missing Out (when stock market recovers after a big crash for a few days giving hope of long term gains). It takes more courage to buy according to predefined rules which often means buying when everything is gloomy and stocks lose massively. Buy on days when stocks are massively sold not bought. In the long term it pays off. Do not be tempted by rebounds that may prove short-lived.
Even the best investors struggle with market timing. In fact most hedge funds (even the most prestigious ones) made substantial losses in March The market can turn rapidly both ways and while you may avoid some bad days avoiding just a few good days can be extremely detrimental to your long term performance as illustrated by a study done by Fidelity. Also, it is extremely risky to use leverage since additional debt implies you must be correct on timing
You may not get spectacular 300–400% returns overnight but your money will be relatively safe if you base your decisions on sound financial statements and diversify. ETFs (including Bond ETFs) are a great way to invest in indices without taking idiosyncratic risk (e.g. L**** Coffee dropped 80% in one day in March on uncovered fraud — as Warren Buffett says "Only when the tide goes out to do you discover who's been swimming naked"). Ask yourself the question — am I more qualified than a professional investor to predict which industry player may outperform the rest of the market? Do I know how the landscape post-crisis will look like? Even if you suspect knowing first-order effects are you sure of the second and higher-order effect (to Nicholas Taleb's point).
How to invest in stocks to avoid drawdowns? Each crisis has its own most vulnerable industries where outcomes can be binary — in 2008 some Banks went out of business and as an investor, you may have lost everything. The Coronavirus crisis has other prime candidates for such outcomes, airlines can be nationalized and hotel/tourism industry players can go bankrupt should the distress last longer. You want to avoid these investments until there is more clarity on consumer confidence. Since these recover now you may think it was wise to invest at some point but the key is that you can't base the rightness of a decision bed on an outcome but on a probability it would occur. And in March chances were high there would be lots of Airline Lehman Brothers (in fact, a lot materialized — LatAm, Virgin Australia, etc) Solution for how to invest in stocks avoiding binary outcomes: Choose Index Funds!
If you do invest in single names, do not believe blindly in potentially meaningless dividend yields based on past data unless it has been confirmed by the management after incorporating all the outlook related to Covid-19. Instead, look at balance sheets with low debt and build-in resilience (cash). These firms may outperform and even acquire weaker competitors in the current environment. Be cautious though, you can't predict the impact of post-Corona market on Business Models.
Ray Dalio now infamously said a few months ago that 'Cash is Trash'. While he is one of the best thinkers in Finance the remark was badly timed. Even in the most conservative scenarios keep some reserves. This is primarily a health crisis and while an economic crisis unfolds having a safety net is paramount. Additional unforeseen tail risks always exist (think Oil Price crash or Trade War on top of Coronavirus etc.)
It is difficult to predict which countries may relatively outperform. Keep your portfolio diversified geographically (e.g. Asia, Europe, US) and product-wise potentially including commodities like Gold that may outperform in low real rates / high inflation environments. Consider very high-quality debt products (Treasuries or Investment Grade Debt Bond ETFs). Here is a good guide on how to protect your Stocks Portfolio.
Knowing how to invest in stocks is also about adjusting your strategies as there is more clarity about the outlook. But be very careful with financial experts and consensus — when you see opinions converging usually something else will happen
The risks are still skewed to the downside (it can take significant time). While there is a discount to peak market values and positive catalysts may materialize (most pharmas are working on Coronavirus vaccines and mitigating drugs) the time it takes and the change of behavior will alter the markets significantly. The impact on people's health even when cured and society at large is at this stage still uncertain. Stay safe and healthy! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 29 Sep 2020 10:39 PM PDT I hear a lot of noise regarding Palantir and Asana's IPO Tomorrow. Who else is buying Palantir? Other companies/stocks I'm bullish on long term:
What do you guys think? Please send stock recommendations. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 30 Sep 2020 09:55 AM PDT "Due to COVID-19 audience size restrictions at Arizona's major venues, we have made the decision to reschedule an in-person Nikola World until we can bring the Nikola community together safely," the company said. "We will continue to provide progress updates across our entire product portfolio." Edit: NKLA +20% [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 30 Sep 2020 03:17 PM PDT Nio may not have the intense following enjoyed by the industry leader Tesla, but Deutsche Bank thinks the electric-car manufacturer can quickly dominate the expanding Chinese market. In a Tuesday note delving into whether the company could become "the next iconic auto brand," analysts led by Edison Yu highlighted Nio's growth in the competitive electric-vehicle market. For one, sales are trending higher. The team projected record third- and fourth-quarter deliveries and raised its estimates for full-year sales and earnings. As adoption of battery-powered electric vehicles "increases and word of mouth spreads, we believe Nio can take material share in the premium segment as consumers begin to understand the value proposition and quality of its products and services," Deutsche Bank said. The lifted forecast backs the firm's "buy" rating and $24 price target for Nio shares. That target implies a 28% rally from Nio's Monday closing level over the next 12 months. Nio gained as much as 7% following the note's release. Some investors balked at the bank's bullish outlook earlier in the month, saying Nio doesn't boast the same loyalty in China as other luxury automakers. There is some truth to such criticisms "given Nio is an upstart," the analysts said, but the bank continues to find "compelling evidence" that Nio is increasingly viewed as a player in the luxury-autos space. Nio's average customer-referral rate jumped to 62% in the first half of 2020 from 52% last year, according to the bank. Separately, a recent study by China's leading automotive web portal found that Nio had a higher referral rating in China than Tesla, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz, despite being just six years old. Nio's standing in the Chinese market is already translating to more sales. The automaker boosted its monthly production capacity to 5,000 in September after selling out vehicles produced in August. Third-quarter deliveries are set to reach 11,500, the analysts said, landing above the high end of the company's own guidance. Nio will still need to face off with other young Chinese rivals, but Deutsche Bank said it was confident the firm would lead the pack. "With the China EV market already the world's largest and now inflecting upward after the recent downturn, we believe Nio is well positioned to take share in the premium segment," the team said. Nio traded at $19.92 per share as of 12:40 p.m. ET. The company has three "buy" ratings, five "hold" ratings, and two "sell" ratings from Wall Street analysts. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 30 Sep 2020 02:29 PM PDT Hello, Lately I've been looking at TUP and after reading their last Q financial report, I cannot wrap my head around why they jumped from 2$ (march low) to 26$ (sep high), sitting now at 20$ per share. Now, I honestly dont understand much about financials, but to me they don't look good at all. Their overall earnings report looks somewhat fine because they managed to cut costs incredibly and they sold a lot of land. Their revenue growth has been declining since Q4 2017 and they are stating that they want to implement responsible investments to unleash massive growth.. which doesn't make much sense for me if we are talking about a company that makes food containers.. where lies the potential for innovation? Maybe improve the efficency of the supply chain somehow? Well they talk about that, and they say pretty much that they want to move from regional inventory to global inventory, shipping specific products where there is more demand, reducing standing inventory, which is a double edged sword as you probably also increase your shipping costs. They are also working on moving to online selling to boost sales as people dont wanna seek for a consulant to attend a party, which implies direct product shipment to final client. Google Tupperware patents and an incredible amount of articles will come up saying how their fortune was built on their founder depositing patents in the 60', which are now all expired. - magnetic drinking cup - a cup with a magnetic top which allows for easier cleaning because traditional cups have screw tops which are hard to clean (?) - fresh check device - a single use device that tells you if you food is still good to eat... storing in tupperware is meant for food leftovers, not fresh food, who would spend money on a single use device to check the freshness of their leftovers? And dont say restaurants, they already know if their food is shitty lol - anti ageing lotion - big question mark here Can anyone shine a light on why they should be considered a valuable company, worth investing in? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 30 Sep 2020 07:47 AM PDT DOCU is one that has been on my watch list so I decided to run it through my scorecard. DOCU is a company that provides a platform for electronic signatures, with an integrated payment system and mobile app. I give it a score of 11/21 on my scorecard. Where DOCU does really well is in the revenue department. Consistent 35%+ growth in annual revenue, with 44% expected this year thanks to COVID. A slight slowdown is expected in 2021 at only 29%, but still solid. The company has also seen recent acceleration in annual revenue growth, and increasing YoY quarterly revenue growth. The company benefits from a recurring revenue model, offering monthly and yearly subscription plans. It also scores well for being the leader in the area and having a solid moat. Although there are other companies that offer the same service, DOCU is clearly the big player in a specialized area. It also offers a service that will fundamentally change the way people do business, making document signatures easy and efficient. I do have some big concerns, however: 1) Lots of debt. The D/E ratio is through the roof and the current ratio is only 1.13. This raises the risk of a share offering in the future to raise more cash. 2) Profitability (or lack thereof). The path to profitability seems slow, with +EPS not expected until 2023. 3) Valuation. Through 2019 and early 2020 the stock was trading in a P/S range of 10-17, and is now at 33. This has been one of the hot COVID stocks, increasing 4x in price from the March lows to the recent highs. Based on 2021 expected revenue and a more reasonable P/S of 20, that would give it a target price of $194. At a P/S of 25, target would be $242. This suggests little/no upside from these prices, not even taking into account the risk of a share offering. I'm putting it on my shopping list in the event of another market selloff and would consider getting in at $150-$175. But I'm not a buyer at these levels. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Non-US citizen, looking to invest Posted: 30 Sep 2020 01:49 PM PDT Hi, I'm not from the US and I already invest in the US market through my bank, but I would like to find another way to trade because the fees are pretty high, etc... I found a few platforms: Saxo Bank TD Ameritrade Interactive Brokers Fidelity Charles Schwab I wanted to know if anyone has used these before and if they are any good. Thanks in advance :) [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 30 Sep 2020 01:37 PM PDT If this is not the appropriate forum please feel free to delete I am looking for a RESOURCE (i.e article, specific law, or website) NOT advice. TLDR: I'm a contractor for X company, my client is company Y, I'm interested in Y's stock but not sure of legalities I'm a software engineering contractor. It just so happens my client's stocks are looking like a good investment in general, and I'd like to buy. HOWEVER, I don't want to get in trouble with the SEC for insider trading. I DO NOT have any access to information that isn't already public in terms of business dealings, the work I do for the company supports existing systems and SOME new systems that my client uses internally that never face the public. Basically all I'm saying is I'm pretty confident I don't have information that would tip me off about stock values, and if I do, I literally have no idea how to correlate it with stock loss or gains. This client does have a stock purchasing plan, but for their employees not contractors obviously. I have never previously owned stock in my client's company, however it is one I have considered in the past before. Only reason why I'm considering it now is cause well I can afford their stocks now that I have a good job lol So if anyone knows which laws I need to go research, or any articles they feel would be useful please let me know. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Let's Talk REITs...Investing in real-estate without owning any Posted: 30 Sep 2020 11:17 AM PDT I have to start by giving credit to "@humphreytalks " on TikTok because I never even knew REITs existed before I saw his recent TikTok on them. As a relatively young, long-long-term investor with a Roth IRA being the main part of my portfolio, his post caught my eye. I can't say I have seen them mentioned on this sub either. So I wanted to get people's overall opinions on REITs. A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company that owns, operates, or finances income-generating real estate. Modeled after mutual funds, REITs pool the capital of numerous investors. This makes it possible for individual investors to earn dividends from real estate investments—without having to buy, manage, or finance any properties themselves. Basically very flat stocks with huge monthly dividends (But correct me if I am wrong). I understand them a lot better now after researching them but I wanted to get some more opinions, if you own any, or if they really are a great way to invest in real-estate without actually owning real-estate. It looks like they all took a huge hit from coronavirus but are slowly making their way back up so I am thinking it is a great time to dump a good chunk of my cash reserves into one or two and not look at it for 20 years. I am seeing that the best ones include ESS, O, SPG, and STOR but open to looking at any I am missing. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 30 Sep 2020 06:30 AM PDT Legendary investor Peter Lynch vastly outperformed the market with a 29.2% annual return following some very simple strategies like investing in what you know, don't look at stock price day to day but hold companies that will be a 5-10 bagger long term, and looking for smaller companies as they have more to gain. I would love to hear what businesses you think Peter Lynch would hold in his portfolio today. My Lynch pick: Shake Shack Good well known brand, great burgers, growing, and their current valuation is barely up since their IPO in 2015 [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cormedix (CRMD) - Prime Candidate for a Buyout (2+ years of DD) Posted: 30 Sep 2020 08:14 AM PDT CRMD (Cormedix) has been my golden goose since July 2018. I believe they will either partner-up or (more likely, imo, get bought out). I am going to explain my reasoning why, either way, I think this has the most upside in the market right now (I own lots of shares and options, trying to time the explosion) They developed a catheter-lock solution (solution that helps reduce infections) called DefenCath (formerly called Neutrolin). This is a huge issue in the world and hundreds of thousands of people die from this annually - in fact, more people have died from catheter-related infections in 2020 than from COVID. 4 weeks into their 10 week Phase 3 trial, it was halted due to efficacy. Meaning, the board saw all the needed and the results were so convincing, there was no need to continue the trial. The stock went from $.34 to $.80 the next day. The P Value is 0.0006 from the trial - over 1000 times better than the P Value necessary to equate this to a "successful" trial. AKA - they knocked it out the park. About 18 months ago, the company conducted a reverse-split (5-1) to get the price over $5 and entice institutions and hedge funds to buy in much heavier. Most funds don't touch stocks unless they are over $5. Right now, it is trading at $5.66, which is $1.15 pre-split. The Market Cap is only $177 million. The market for Hemodialysis catheter locks is over $1 billion. For Oncology and other indications, it brings it to over $5 billion. Many believe the FDA will approve this for all indications, which will be a HUGE deal. I think this company will be bought out by big pharma Some facts and reasons why I think this is so bullish and also gets bought out or enters a substantial partnership:
The ONLY bearish case I believe is a risk is that Elliott Management, who owns a huge chunk of this company, could get it in their heads to take this private with a hostile takeover. I just don't see this happening with all of the other institutional ownership here and at the levels it is at. Obviously, the other bearish case is the drug not receiving approval, with a p value of 0.0006 I may add some info here later this week, but this was a big brain dump for me. I am very curious to hear any bearish reasoning, so please throw any questions at me. I hope my 28 months of DD is helpful. GLTA. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Morning Market Synopsis - Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2020 Posted: 30 Sep 2020 08:00 AM PDT US equities higher: Dow +1.32%, S&P 500 +1.07%, Nasdaq +1.26%, Russell 2000 +1.13%
Notable Gainers:
Notable Decliners:
09:39:44 AM CDT on 30 Sep '20 [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 29 Sep 2020 11:37 PM PDT This is purely an opinion post. I feel like there are misconceptions about what "timing the market" is on this sub. People will tell you that holding any cash or buying at the right price is considered timing the market and that you should just buy in now if you plan on holding long term.
I'm drunk right now so I typed this whole post up, hopefully someone reads it and gains some value, even more hopefully someone just shits all over me because I'm making no sense, either way have a good night and thank you. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| free spreadsheet shareholdings template for everyone Posted: 30 Sep 2020 10:21 AM PDT Hi. Do you remember the gsheet I had created for the shareholders? I do not intend to advertise my company or website but posting direct links that you can download, change and use for your shares. they are free for all of you. Here you go! Use this if you have shares of US stock exchanges and the currency is dollars. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SObpJcoPm2RyiuQMpUiv3w7tYAK4qsPFCYGDc7MU1J4/edit?usp=sharing The other one has two tabs. Aktieinnehav is in Swedish with Swedish currency but the shares are from American stock exchanges. Shareholdings is programmed so you can change currency and stock exchanges. All instructions are available. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lif1ig8dhXq_Hiu9gwDenMJYY5RmiK-l7U4QIypt_kM/edit?usp=sharing Good luck with the trade. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Can someone explain to me how people make so much money selling Calls and Puts? Posted: 30 Sep 2020 03:29 PM PDT For example, I looked today and there is a oct 3 call on AAPL at .05 strike price 122.5. This would cost $5 to purchase. I understand what the call means, but I see people who sell some options for thousands upon thousands of dollars. For someone to make money on this wouldn't the current price of the stock have to be significantly higher then 122.5? Otherwise the purchaser of the stock has the original upfront cost of purchasing the option off you, and then buying the 100 stocks at 122.5, and then selling for such a slim margin. Are the people that are making stupid money just super duper in the money, or is there something im missing here about being in the money a bit? Say if the aapl stock was in the money at 125. is there some sort of calculation that is easy to do to figure out the price at which the option is worth? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 30 Sep 2020 09:18 AM PDT Looking at Shell or BP both look like the biggest oil companies making strides to alternative energy investment. They are also both not in the US so less affected by who gets elected as president. Curious to which seems to be the stronger company from a value standpoint? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 30 Sep 2020 11:24 AM PDT No real good news, but tons of "upgrades" in random low mover stocks like SPCE that cause huge spikes. Those huge spikes quickly drop as the banks only pumped it up to a better level to exit. Every good morning spike reverts to almost a low or a low as the big banks dump their positions onto new found bagholders. They're all de-risking heading into a volatile month of November. Every morning they pump a few lagging stocks and head for the exits asap. Now I see JPMorgan calling a 30% gain in the next few weeks on the already monstrously overpriced S&P. Yeah they want out and they're selling you rainbows and unicorns so you'll let them get their money out. Don't be a bagholder, be smart. [link] [comments]  |
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