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    Monday, September 21, 2020

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Sep 21, 2020

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Sep 21, 2020


    r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Sep 21, 2020

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 01:08 AM PDT

    These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts.

    Some helpful links:

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    MSFT to acquire Bethesda

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 06:11 AM PDT

    https://news.microsoft.com/2020/09/21/microsoft-to-acquire-zenimax-media-and-its-game-publisher-bethesda-softworks/

    MSFT announced today that they will buy ZeniMax Media and it's game studio Bethesda for $7.5b.

    submitted by /u/7thAccountDontDelete
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    Leak reveals $2tn of possibly corrupt US financial activity

    Posted: 20 Sep 2020 03:01 PM PDT

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/20/leak-reveals-2tn-of-possibly-corrupt-us-financial-activity

    Is this gonna screw up wall street the coming weeks? I mean, if it's true, it will put even more fear and distrust of the whole economy and the stock market.

    submitted by /u/futureIsYes
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    Disney tailored ‘Mulan’ for China. It still ‘never had a chance’ at the mainland box office

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 07:24 AM PDT

    https://fortune.com/2020/09/20/disney-mulan-2020-china-box-office-flop/

    The film generated $23.2 million in its opening weekend at the mainland China box office, sinking below analysts' estimates that it would rake in $30 million to $40 million. Early indications suggest the movie's reception in Hong Kong will be underwhelming too.

    The film's mainland China debut was considered a failure not just because it missed analysts' expectations, but also because Disney had poured five years and $200 million into the film, in part, to ensure it appealed to a Chinese audience. Disney cast actors popular in China, hired Chinese consultants, shared the script with Chinese authorities, and cut scenes that Chinese test audiences didn't like.

    Rampant illegal downloading meant that many viewers in China had watched Mulan days before it came out in Chinese cinemas on Sept. 11. Within hours of the film becoming available on Disney's streaming platform Disney+ on Sept. 4, it appeared on illegal streaming sites worldwide. (Disney+ is available to subscribers in more than two dozen countries in Europe, Asia, and North America. It's not available in mainland China, but users with a virtual private network can bypass regional restrictions.)

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    Stocks Are Barely at August Levels Guys, This is Hardly a Fire Sale

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 07:44 AM PDT

    I see everyone going nuts either thinking this is the buying opportunity of the decade or thinking the sky is falling. These stock prices have retreated to levels of like 3 weeks ago to maybe early August at the most for the most part, after a spectacular run.

    No the sky is not falling, no need to freak out. Also, this isn't the buying opportunity of the century. If your a DCA guy continue doing your thing but I wouldn't be foaming at the mouth to buy into this slight pullback nor would I be freaking out.

    submitted by /u/thesuppplugg
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    Here is a Market Recap for today, Sept 21, 2020. Please enjoy!

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 01:19 PM PDT

    PsychoMarket Recap - Monday, September 21, 2020

    Stocks continued sinking Monday, with the three major indexes extending last week's declines. The drop continued as traders became concerned with stagnating improvement in coronavirus cases and political uncertainty, with the US presidential election around 6 weeks out. The Dow fell the hardest today, finishing 1.84% down, the Nasdaq finished 0.39% up, and the SPY was 1.07% down.

    Nicholas Colas, Co-founder of DataTrek Research said, "The root causes of the recent drawdown in US large caps are [first], recent weakness in real-time economic indicators, [second] the lack of movement on a fiscal stimulus package that could offset #1 and [third] the Fed's lackluster forecasts in its Wednesday release of the Summary of Economic Projections".

    Shares of major bank stocks including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), HSBC (HSBC) and Deutsche Bank (DB) fell following a report that they and other financial institutions for decades facilitated fund transactions used for allegedly criminal activities, and failed to report suspicious activity. The report by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists found five global banks moved "staggering sums of illicit cash for shadowy characters and criminal networks that have spread chaos and undermined democracy around the world." The report cited documents leaked by BuzzFeed News that identified more than $2 trillion in transactions between 1999 and 2017 that were flagged by financial institutions' internal compliance officers as possible money laundering or other criminal activity, including $514 billion at JPMorgan and $1.3 trillion at Deutsche Bank.

    "Reopening stocks", or stocks benefits when the economy looks like it will reopen soon amid the pandemic, fell steeply today, as fear over coronavirus cases here and abroad led to fear of more business closure. In the US, there are now, sadly, 200,000 deaths and new cases have risen in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, and North Dakota, per Yahoo Finance. WHO officials warned that the spread of coronavirus in Europe now is worse than it was in March, near the start of the pandemic and that a 'very serious situation is unfolding in Europe". Cruise stock Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) fell more than 7% in intraday trading, and airlines including United Airlines (UAL), Southwest (LUV) and Delta (DAL) were each down at least 6%.

    Highlights

    • After opening the day deep in the red, tech stocks like $AAPL, $AMZN, and $MSFT rallied in the last hour to end firmly green or modestly red.
    • Tesla (TSLA) will likely partner with a Canadian mining company, Giga Metals Corp. (OTCQB:HNCKF) to source Nickel. Company claims it can source it in an environmentally friendly way. Battery day is tomorrow, we expect big things!
    • London Mayor exploring new plans to enforce new restrictions to slow spread of virus in lieu of vaccine and more widespread testing possibilities. - Reuters: Alex Zukin upgraded Oracle from Sector Perform to Outperform and raised the price target from $60 to $68, calling the TikTok deal a 'shot in the arm'.
    • Shares of Nikola (NKLA) fell sharply after it was announced that Trevor Milton, Executive Chairman and Founder, stepped away from the company in lieu of Hindenburg's allegations
    • $MSFT acquired ZeniMAx Media, parent company of Bethesda studios, the creators of the Fallout and Elder Scrolls series, in a $7.5 billion deal.
    • Walmart (VVPR) has just announced doubling down on addressing climate crisis issues. It is targeting zero emissions across its global operation by 2040.
    • Vivo Power (VVPR) signed Letter of Intent to acquire 51% stake in Tembo, a dutch 4X4 EV manufacturer.
    • Roku (ROKU) stock surged today after it was announced it made a deal with Comcast to add Peacock to its platform. Stock finished the day more than 17% up.
    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
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    Are we the baggies?

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 07:10 AM PDT

    Looking at long-term charts, I can't help thinking that those of us buying stocks/indexes (not options) at these prices are risking bagholding for a long time.

    No one can predict the market, yada yada yada, but holy shit these valuations are, just like in February, kind of nuts historically.

    When we look at long-term CAPE, it's not looking great for those of us buying indexes right now.

    https://www.lynalden.com/wp-content/uploads/CAPE-Returns.jpg

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ea/S%26P_500_Shiller_P-E_Ratio.png/1920px-S%26P_500_Shiller_P-E_Ratio.png

    Am I worrying for nothing? Yes, my horizon is 10+ years, but still....

    submitted by /u/elongated_smiley
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    Breaking news: Trevor Milton out of Nikola Motors

    Posted: 20 Sep 2020 09:25 PM PDT

    https://www.freightwaves.com/news/breaking-news-trevor-milton-out-of-nikola

    Sources close to the embattled fuel cell truck manufacturer are reporting that founder Trevor Milton has resigned as Executive Chairman of Nikola Motors (NASDAQ: NKLA) and has departed the company effective immediately.

    He will remain as one of the company's largest shareholders, but will not have a say in how the company is managed going forward. Sources tell FreightWaves that the decision was Milton's, in an effort to protect the company and his investment. Milton owns approximately 82 million shares or 20% of the company, worth about $2.8 billion dollars.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    Morning Market Synopsis - Monday, Sept. 21, 2020

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 07:17 AM PDT

    US equities lower: Dow (2.40%), S&P 500 (2.06%), Nasdaq (1.63%), Russell 2000 (2.94%)

    • US equities lower in Monday morning trading, extending last week's decline when S&P 500 finished at six-week low and suffered third straight weekly decline. Political risks surrounding SCOTUS vacancy, a renewed uptick in coronavirus case counts (and lockdown speculation) in Europe and money laundering accusations facing some big banks among the latest headwinds coming out of the weekend. Value groups worst performers, with energy, materials, industrials the biggest laggards. Consumer staples and utilities faring best. Tech and communication services also ahead with FAANGs relatively better. Treasuries stronger with the curve flattening. Dollar seeing good gains vs euro and sterling but little changed on yen cross. Gold down 2.3%. WTI crude off 3.2%.
    • September pullback has been attributed to several different factors though concerns about overbought conditions, particularly in the growth and momentum factors that have led the market higher since the 23-Mar coronavirus bottom, have received the bulk of the blame. The dampened prospects for a near-term fiscal stimulus deal have been another overhang. Some of the other excuses have included worries the Fed may be increasingly pushing on a string, heightened political uncertainty into the November election, skepticism about some of the more aggressive vaccine timelines and a resurgence in coronavirus cases in Europe.
    • Supreme Court vacancy following the passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg has grabbed most of the attention over the last few days. Trump said he will announce his nomination later this week and McConnell has vowed to approve year-end, despite pushback from Democrats. Some mixed thoughts on how the court shakeup may impact the election in November. Biggest near-term issue for the market is that it likely makes a deal on a fifth coronavirus relief package even more of a longshot. However, Pelosi said she won't use a government shutdown as a bargaining chip.
    • President Trump signed off on deal under which TikTok will partner with ORCL-US and WMT-US to become a US-based company. JPM-US and BK-US among big banks caught up in money laundering allegations. ILMN-US to acquire GRAIL for $8B in stock and cash. ALL-US announced $750M accelerated share repurchase agreement. NKLA-US down big after founder Trevor Milton voluntarily agreed to step down as executive chairman following recent battle with short-selling firm. TOL-US said QTD net signed contracts up 110% y/y. CUB-US announced shareholder rights plan after Elliott acquired 15% stake and expressed interest in an acquisition.

    Notable Gainers:

    • +10.8% ROKU-US (Roku): Roku and CMCSA-US 's NBCUniversal reached a deal to put Peacock and other NBCU broadcast and cable apps on Roku platform, and NBC content on ad-supported Roku Channel; terms not disclosed, but includes meaningful partnership around advertising.
    • +3.7% BJ-US (BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.): Added to Conviction List at Goldman Sachs; notes new member acquisition likely to drive higher comps; cites accelerating unit growth, record FCF, and margin tailwinds from merchandise expansion and cost initiatives.
    • +2.3% ORCL-US (Oracle): President Trump said he agreed to concept of a deal of partnership between TikTok and Oracle and WMT-US ; Oracle to hold 12.5% stake in new entity called TikTok Global; upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets, saying acquisition a potential catalyst to price appreciation.
    • +2.3% RCII-US (Rent-A-Center): Guided Q3 earnings and revenue above consensus and raised FY guide; said lease portfolio performance and customer payment activity have remained strong even without additional government stimulus.
    • +2.2% TSLA-US (Tesla): Electrek reported that CEO Musk told employees company has a chance at record vehicle deliveries for Q3.
    • +1.9% UPS-US (UPS): Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse; cited increased carrier pricing power, expectations for declining capital intensity going forward, and the new CEO.

    Notable Decliners:

    • -15.5% NKLA-US (Nikola Corp.): Trevor Milton is leaving the company, having stepped down as chair of the board amidst short seller claims of exaggerated technology and an investigation by the SEC/Justice Department; Stephen Girsky will become chair and Mark Russell will remain CEO after being named in June.
    • -14.8% THC-US (Tenet Healthcare): JPMorgan reevaluated hospital ratings; Tenet and UHS-US downgraded to underweight from neutral, HCA-US to neutral from overweight; cited the passing of Justice Ginsburg as a political catalyst for Biden with his proposed public option and lower eligibility age seen as negative; also noted stalling national hospital revenue trends, greater competitive forces via value-based care innovations.
    • -4.5% ILMN-US (Illumina): Reached agreement to buy remainder of Grail it does not already own for $7.1B in cash and stock; expects deal to be revenue accretive beginning in 2021 though some analysts have suggested Grail could require significant investments before paying off.
    • -4.1% ADP-US (ADP): Downgraded to market perform from outperform at Cowen; noted Next-Gen HCM has not become a meaningful contributor as fast as anticipated; cited slower-than-expected pace of platform availability and mini-app market development.
    • -3.3% JPM-US (JPMorgan Chase): Reporting on leaked suspicious activity reports from US Treasury alleged several of world's largest banks (including DB-US , STAN-GB , and BK-US ) facilitated more than $2T in suspicious transactions for suspected criminals over two decades.

    09:08:09 AM CDT on 21 Sep '20

    submitted by /u/spacej3di
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    Bull case.

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 09:39 AM PDT

    A 2% + drop has most often been a good opportunity in hindsight. Drops of this size do not happen that often and while many large cap tech stocks have run too far too fast the pullback is healthy. Because many other sectors and stocks get pulled down with the market there is good opportunity to be had. The S&P also does not pull back to the 200 moving average often, it's close but I suspect it won't. Buying will come in between here and there. History most often proves these are simply opportunities, maybe this time will be the exception but my bet is to the upside. Besides with low rates and a long term time horizon I have nothing to worry about.

    submitted by /u/Maficinc
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    On the future of BP/Shell vs. Exxon/Chevron

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 06:38 AM PDT

    "While BP and other European companies invest billions in renewable energy, Exxon and Chevron are committed to fossil fuels and betting on moonshots. [To] some Wall Street investors, the American oil giants are clearly making the wrong call. "

    (I'm long on BP and RDS)

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/21/business/energy-environment/oil-climate-change-us-europe.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage

    submitted by /u/J_P_Olofsson
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    Could someone explain to me how I've lost so much on this CFD even though the price hasn't changed that much?

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 01:20 PM PDT

    I bought 800 Cineworld shares at 0.57100. The price is now 0.4291, and yet somehow I'm at -£149

    That doesn't make any mathematical sense to me. Can anyone explain? I'm baffled by this and really stressed out. To be honest I didn't actually mean to buy a CFD, I thought I was buying a regular share. I know I should have researched more but I can't change that now. I'm just dumbfounded as to how I owe so much on a share that hasn't changed all that much.

    submitted by /u/Nutrig
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    Corona losers that will rebound?

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 06:26 AM PDT

    What are some companies which stocks have fallen over 50% that you are betting on will rebound strongly post pandemic? I have put a small amount (relative to me) on Norwegian Air Shuttle who have dropped more than 90% thinking that its not a big amount that I would lose if they go complete bankrupt but if they rebound in the coming years its a really nice profit. Any stocks in similar situations?

    submitted by /u/AronwithoneA
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    The US markets have out performed the entire world for 30 years. Why?

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 01:46 PM PDT

    OK the obvious answer is tech... Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia etc etc. But is this actually the answer?

    The chart below just emphasises just how bad international markets are lagging.

    https://i.gyazo.com/86eae1f8e59d9484b3b511cc89fad8ce.png

    All I've done is taken the German DAX, the UK FTSE 100, the UK FTSE 250, the Toronto Composite, the France 40, the Australian Index, the Japanese 225, and then divided that by the SPX and the Nasdaq.

    As you can see international equities have diverged 65.34% since 2008, this chart does not go back further but I assure you it's worse over a longer time frame, somewhere in the region of a 75% divergence over a 30 year period.

    Basically if you invested your money in a US index fund instead of international funds you'd be somewhere in the region of 50% - 80% better off. This is a substantial amount of money considering 30 years of compounding growth.

    S&P+Nasdaq

    Average Annual Return Total Profit
    10.5% with dividends $2,489,185

    Rest of World

    Average Annual Return Total Profit
    8.17% with dividends $1,535,934

    That's a whopping $953,251 difference, from just a 2.33% difference in performance. It quickly adds up... And on top of this the US Dollar has strengthened against most currencies which would only amplify the gains when you come to sell.

    Are we really attributing a 30 year out performance from just tech? Or is there a fundamental reason behind the difference? And most importantly, how much further will this disparity grow?

    Is it even worth investing in international equities at this point since the future of these economies looks like it's going to continue to stagnant bigly as they basically have very little tech to keep them afloat?

    submitted by /u/Redditor45643335
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    Goldman sells em the top...again. $AMZN $3800 price tgt on 7/21

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 07:10 AM PDT

    Goldman sees 28% upside potential in Amazon and ties for Street-high price target on 'accelerating e-commerce growth' (AMZN)

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/amazon-stock-upside-street-high-price-target-goldman-sachs-tie-2020-7-1029410889#

    submitted by /u/seeyounexttuesdaybru
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    ATT keeps dropping, almost to the lows of shutdown

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 11:32 AM PDT

    Is it worth throwing a good amount of money at them? They are generally terrible company to their customers, but I believe they have a low PE ratio and a very nice dividend.

    HBOMax is whatever without a heavyhitter like Game of Thrones, but I am confident that all Telecom companies are bad to their customers. They have different ways of revenue within internet, television, movies, video games, cell phone service, sports, and serveral others. What is your take at $28?

    submitted by /u/jamartin92
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    Morgan Stanley Warns Nasdaq 100 May Fall More Than 20% From Peak

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 01:01 PM PDT

    (Bloomberg) -- The tech-led selloff in U.S. equities is likely only halfway done, according to the Morgan Stanley strategist whose warning last month about the top-heavy market now appears prescient.

    Down 13% from its Sept. 2 high, the Nasdaq 100 has tumbled below its 50-day average and is underperforming the S&P 500 for the first time in a year. Yet deeper losses may be ahead because the selloff has yet to clear out the positive sentiment that bubbled up in the past few months during its historic rally, according to Mike Wilson, the bank's chief U.S. equity strategist.

    The tech-heavy gauge is at risk of falling to its 200-day average, according to the strategist. That level, which sits near 9,528, would be a 12% drop from current levels and a 23% decline from its all-time high of 12,421 reached earlier this month.

    "This is what happens when stocks get so extended -- corrections can be much bigger when remaining in an uptrend," Wilson wrote in a note to clients. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-warns-nasdaq-100-184025667.html

    submitted by /u/buzztiga
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    Thoughts on 89bio Ticker: ETNB ??

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 12:38 PM PDT

    I have invested a decent amount and the average buy price for me was $26.35. I am down about $20 total right now but usually the price for ETNB is over $26.35. It is usually volatile but it has been staying down all week so I was wondering if anyone knows anything or has any recommendations. Sorry I'm just a student (new to investing) throwing money around so I don't know much other than trying to analyze trends.

    submitted by /u/ArsenalGun1205
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    LULU’s fall

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 07:57 AM PDT

    The stock has crashed 24% in the last 2 weeks despite an earnings beat. The price action could be the result of:

    *LULU moving with the overall market because it is a momentum stock

    *Fear that LULU's customers will be unwilling to continue buying high priced leggings

    *A large holder liquidating his/her stake

    Lululemon has received consistent Buy ratings from analysts and it holds a quality product with a cult market. Whats your opinion on the stock? More room to fall or a buying opportunity?

    submitted by /u/lostarrow1
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    Thoughts on Greenpower (NASDAQ:GP)?

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 12:22 PM PDT

    Looks like a pretty good company. They're on a downward trend right now, but provide electric vehicles for cargo and delivery and also provide zero emission buses, in times where zero emission vehicles are becoming more popular. I'm thinking about buying, but I'm interested to hear what others think

    submitted by /u/RowanHarley
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    Too tech heavy?

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 10:06 AM PDT

    Im gonna be 19 in a couple weeks, managed to save up money (big boost from FPUC + PUA lol) and invest. Heres my portfolio:

    12.64% VT

    29.74% Amazon

    14.95% Facebook

    11.70% Microsoft

    10.51% Square

    4.29% ICLN

    1.13% MCHI

    5.13% TQQQ

    1.79% UPRO

    4.23% Intel

    2.82% Bitcoin

    1.06% Ethereum

    100.00% Total

    I think I made a mistake putting so much into tech stocks and not enough into VT. But since Im down like 10% on tech, I'll just hold it for a few years, I believe strongly in FAAMG. TQQQ and UPRO were definitely mistakes, but Im down big and dont want to sell those. Sunk-cost fallacy, I know, but theres a chance good chance they reach new ATHs, if the market eventually calms down and goes on a steady bull run. Also I got my job back and will be buying about $100 in VT everyweek. Any feedback? The portfolio is about 70k USD.

    submitted by /u/khromem
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    Penn National

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 08:37 AM PDT

    I've been holding penn National for the past year now and I'm not sure what I should do now. I originally invested because I have a lot of faith in barstool sports and love what they have been doing. I also knew they had their sportsbook app coming out so that really increased my confidence in this stock. Well fast forward to now and penns stock has almost doubled and they have released their sportsbook app in Pennsylvania last week. As the market continues to trend down I fear I might lost the gains I've recently made with penn. Should I sell off now, watch it go down and reinvest at a cheaper price or should I hold through the thick and the thin and wait for it to continue to go back up as they release the app in more states?

    submitted by /u/cob222222555
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    Buy and hold or Short term trading better?

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 01:28 PM PDT

    Is it better to buy and hold and constantly add to positions monthly over time and never sell, or is it better to buy and sell every time a stock goes up and just take a 5-10% gain even though it could go higher?

    With buy and hold you have the potential to make more that is left on the table through selling quick, and you don't have to pay as much taxes. However, if the market goes down you're stuck holding the bag and you feel like you missed out on another opportunity cost, but oftentimes when the market goes down all sectors go down as well so there is no safe bet.

    With short term trading you get out quick if you cap gains at 5-10%, but you miss future profits. You don't have to worry about huge downward dips though. Short term trading does require more time and can mess with your emotions and have you constantly looking at your stocks. Also, everything sounds good with swing trading but it could be more unpredictable in practice.

    Even during the dips like now is it better to buy and hold say if you bought in at Microsoft 3 weeks ago at 210 then it went to 225 in 3 weeks would you make more money short term selling over small peaks like that in your life, or would you make more just buying it at that set price 210 and leaving it alone?

    submitted by /u/ElectricOne55
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    How do I gift stock?

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 07:30 AM PDT

    I want to give stocks to friends as gifts for birthdays. I found a website called Giveashare that can do this, but it looks gimmicky and not very official, more educational. How can I easily buy like 100 small shares in a friend's name and give them the ability to monitor them and cash them out when they want?

    submitted by /u/JazzyVegetarian
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    Solar Stocks (in relation to corporate zero emissions pledges)

    Posted: 21 Sep 2020 11:01 AM PDT

    Hello! I'm currently invested in TAN, RUN, and NEE but I want to have some more money specifically in solar manufacturing / tech. As more and more American corporations are pledging net zero emissions (Walmart announced zero emissions by 2040 today), who will benefit the most from these pledges? Obviously transportation and storage is a large part of emissions, but these companies also own so much land that could potentially be used for solar.

    In addition, if Dems control the white house / senate and are able to push through climate change projects, certainly American made solar / wind will benefit the most?

    Just wondering what your thoughts are. It's hard to get definitive information on who the largest American solar manufacturers are. I keep seeing conflicting information.

    submitted by /u/tatsurotime
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