• Breaking News

    Wednesday, September 23, 2020

    Stock Market - 86 stocks out of 26,000 stocks responsible for over half of market wealth creation.

    Stock Market - 86 stocks out of 26,000 stocks responsible for over half of market wealth creation.


    86 stocks out of 26,000 stocks responsible for over half of market wealth creation.

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 05:37 AM PDT

    This is from a study by Hedrik Bessembinder. He looked at approximately 26,000 stocks between 1926-2015 and found that over half the wealth was from just the top 86 stocks.

    So my question is (and I'm no expert) that this flies in the face of those who say the FANGs take up too much percentage of the S&P 500.

    Instead of buying an index, shouldn't we (or our active fund manager) be looking to buy the best and strongest companies?

    "The author estimates that $32 trillion of wealth (returns in excess of Treasury Bills) was created between 1926 and 2015 via the approximately 26,000 stocks that have appeared in the CRSP database during that time. Of these 26,000 stocks, only 86 of the top-performing stocks (less than 0.33%), were collectively responsible for over half of the wealth creation. And the top 1,000 performing stocks, less than 4% of the total, accounted for all of the wealth creation. The other 96% only matched the return of the one-month Treasury Bill with many of them producing less"

    submitted by /u/MrDopple68
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    Here is a Market Recap for today, Sept 23, 2020. What a wild day!

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 01:24 PM PDT

    PsychoMarket Recap - September 23, 2020

    Stocks turned sharply negative again, erasing yesterday's gains and continuing the decline from the earlier week as investors weighed slowing economic data and the absence of fiscal stimulus. This was one of the worst sessions in September. The SPY finished 2.35% down, the Nasdaq 3.05% down and the Dow finished 1.93% down.

    Tech shares reversed yesterday's course and sank, leading the broader market down. Big tech stocks, like Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) finished around 2% down on average.

    Economic analysts were mostly bearish. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note, "It's also pretty clear that the rates of recovery have slowed, with only retail sales having completed the V. You can thank the enhanced unemployment benefits for that – $600 per week for more than 30M people, at the peak. It's hard to be optimistic about September and the fourth quarter, with the chance of a further relief bill before the election receding as Washington focuses on the Supreme Court".

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin once again addressed the urgent need for further stimulus in a testimony before the House Financial Services Committee yesterday. Powell underscored the limitations of the Federal Reserve's lending powers. He said, "Many borrowers will benefit from these programs, as will the overall economy. But for others, a loan that could be difficult to repay might not be the answer. In these cases, direct fiscal support may be needed." Mnuchin added that he wanted to reauthorize measures under the Payment Protection Program (PPP) that offered forgivable loans to businesses that stayed open and kept most of their employees on payroll. Unfortunately, any reauthorization or reallocation of funds requires Congressional approval, something unlikely to happen with lawmakers unable to come to a consensus about stimulus and focused mainly on the Supreme Court.

    Highlights

    • Yesterday was Tesla's (TSLA) battery day. The company laid out plans to $25,000 car and cut battery costs in half over the next three years. However, this fell short of expectations of investors and analysts, who said "while the technology and manufacturing innovations outlined were impressive, Tesla's valuation already priced in these disruptors". The stock finished the day 10.34% down.
    • SPI Energy (SPI) rocketed today after the company announced they were launching a new electric vehicle subsidiary. Stock was up 3000% at one point before finishing the day 1,199% up.
    • Nike (NKE) shares spiked up today after the company's earning announcement based on increased ecommerce sales. The stock finished the day 8.77% up.
      • EPS of $0.95 vs $0.46 estimate
      • Revenue of $10.59 billion vs $9.15 billion estimate
    • StitchFix (SFIX) fell steeply today after underperforming earnings. The stock finished the day 6.8% down.
      • EPS of -$0.44 vs -$0.18 estimate
      • Revenue of $443.4 million vs $414.52 estimate
    • Twitter has been on a tear recently after Pivotal Research Group upgraded to BUY with a $59.75 price target, very bullish. Stock outperformed the market, finishing the day 6.08% up and 16.41% up in the week.
    • GoodRX debuted in the market today. The stock finished the day 8.48% up (vs $46 listing price for the public)
    • Tesla (TSLA) Analyst Ratings:
      • Deutsche Bank Upgraded HOLD to BUY
      • Jeffries Financial Group reiterated BUY
      • JP Morgan Chase target set $65 SELL
      • UBS Group target set $325 NEUTRAL
    • Hasbro (HAS), currently $75: BMO Capital Markets upgraded to OUTPERFORM and increased price target from $69 to $90
    • Facebook (FB): Jefferies Financial Group target set by $310 at BUY
    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) announced that its coronavirus vaccine candidate had entered the late stage clinical phase, becoming the fourth company to do so in the global search for an effective COVID-19 inoculation.
    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
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    Home sales reach highest levels since the 2006 housing bubble

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 05:09 AM PDT

    https://money.yahoo.com/home-sales-reach-highest-levels-since-the-2006-housing-bubble-202041941.html

    Total sales in August hit a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6 million units, the highest level since December 2006 before the housing crash helped to usher in the Great Recession. August sales were also 2.4% higher versus July and 10.5% higher than a year ago.

    Still, housing scarcity remains, with average listings sitting on the market for just 22 days, tying the existing record. That helped to push prices higher for the 102nd month in a row to $310,600, up 11.4% from last year.

    "Even if home sales come down from this high level, the demographics are favorable for sales to continue to happen," said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. "By that, I mean millennials are a big group and they are aging into years where they will do a lot of home-buying — both first-time and trade-up buying."

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    GoodRX (GDRX) became publically traded today. Stock already around $49.

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 09:56 AM PDT

    GoodRx priced its shares at $33 apiece, above its $24-$28 per share offering range, which will give it an initial market cap of around $12.7 billion. Stock already trading at around $49 a share. Seems like a very interesting stock

    • The company will begin listing Wednesday on the Nasdaq under ticker GDRX, and used Morgan Stanley as lead underwriter.
    • It reports nearly $55 million of net income on $257 million in revenue for the first half of 2020, making it one of precious few profitable tech startups to go public.
    • Existing investor Silver Lake agreed to buy another $100 million of stock via the IPO. Prior to the IPO, Silver Lake had a 35.3% ownership stake.
    • Other investors include Francisco Partners (23.7% pre-IPO stake) and Spectrum Equity (15.4%),
    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
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    Why’s tech stock taking so many hits recently?

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 12:31 PM PDT

    Did we just see to fast a recovery post-covid and are finally feeling the effects of job losses affecting the tech market? Seems like tech and NASDAQ should be much steadier unless they really are just feeling the impacts of a stunted economy.

    EDIT: To clarify, I understand how the market works. There are ups and downs. My question is specifically if something is happening in the tech industry that caused such a dramatic shift from record highs to a plummet that was almost as steep as covid's was -or- if it was just the organic market balancing itself out.

    submitted by /u/Thraex_Exile
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    Is my father’s portfolio pointless?

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 06:35 PM PDT

    My father recently got a moderate sum of money and has started to invest it. He put this money into some stocks on Robinhood and then asked me for help.

    His Portfolio that he put $1000 each into:

    AAPL HD JNJ MSFT NEE LMT SQ V MA ABT COST NET WM VOO

    I dont know much about stocks but from what I understand all or most of these stocks fall in the S&P 500. Wouldn't it be better for him to put all this money in SPY or VOO as they already have they stocks plus a bunch of other companies. Again I'm not much of an expert when it comes to this kind of stuff so any advice helps

    Thanks.

    submitted by /u/Hi_Hows_It_Going
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    Mixed feedback causing anxiety

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 08:16 PM PDT

    I have been saving money for 2 years and decided to start investing.

    After putting money into a set list of stocks I chose, a friend who works at a large financial firm gave feedback that is making me a little nervous.

    Some have told me my portfolio is fine long term, but he stoked some real fear. I'm not much of an expert at all, I did some research, but any advice helps!

    Here is my 160k portfolio at 24 years old.

    • 31% VTI
    • 8.5% MSFT
    • 7.5% SQ
    • 6.5% AMD
    • 5.75% V
    • 5% AAPL
    • 5% DIS
    • 5% TSLA
    • 4.5% GOOG
    • 3.5% DKNG
    • 3% JPM
    • 3% JNJ
    • 3% WMT

    The rest in other investments, outside of Stocks/ETFs.

    Thanks guys.

    submitted by /u/MajinJuuu
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    Was “Cuties” A Long Term Genius Marketing Plan that could Grow user Growth/Revenue over time?

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 07:14 PM PDT

    SS: Netflix is a pretty great platform overall - No ads, you can skip intros, and end credits. That's unheard of in this advertisement heavy market, unfortunately it's design has attracted content that has attracted negative attention on more than one occasion.

    I think overall, their model is successful, and even it's close competitors struggle to carry the same infrastructure, even Disney plus - done right without the ads, can feel sluggish compared to Netflix's experience in the streaming market. Hulu is a joke with it's ads, HBO Max has a unique selection, but what brings people in next? It's old content that did well, Netflix has shows people want to see that dont exist yet. (Next season of black mirror, stranger things, pick your poison)

    The truth that will hit most people is that all the companies are corrupt and they still want to watch their shows, so why do the one that doesnt bury you in advertisements.

    —-

    If things go to what I think might be Netflix's evil plan

    With shared accounts broken up from the negative publicity of "Cuties"

    The market will drop memberships by the handful.. Take a temporary loss in revenue, and then start seeing a potential increase in user base, from the same user base, by having people create new accounts from previous shared account members.

    The whole market is trending downwards, a 'reset' of a historic rally period. Now, or I would even predict in a week to two (down trend will likely continue even if it bounces some days), will be the most optimal time to pick up more shares in companies that have great long term potential

    I'm looking at:

    Netflix - for this reason even though it's weird

    Adobe - recently adopted Allgoretmethic, the 3d software of substance suite, you're seeing companies like unity going public, adobe on its subscription based model owning the industries most needed tools like substance and photoshop/primere/illustrator/pdf. They own the tech future

    Atlissian -

    Snow

    Unity

    Tesla

    Amazon

    Google

    Apple

    Sony

    AMD

    submitted by /u/commenter37892
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    Advice on books and resources needed on short term investment theories.

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 06:04 PM PDT

    Folks, I am an engineer that builds big data backends. I now have access to tons of stock data. I don't trade very much at all so my use of financial lingo is need of refinement/improvement ( apologies in advance ). As an engineer's academic exercise ( mostly to flex my big data skills ) I am just writing code to generate statistics on common investing theories. So far I have found a couple of that I'm going to program: historical performance of stock splits and daily regression to previous days closing prices. What I come to you folks for is advice on resources and books that list some well known theories that people use for investing so I can then transform into algos. Any advice is appreciated.

    submitted by /u/sherab2b
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    Back to April #'s

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 03:40 PM PDT

    Like many, I jumped into the trading game when the market cratered earlier this year. I figured, I can beat what the bank gives me for just sitting there. The 1st sector I jumped into was oil. Cars need gas, rates dropped to zero...not that hard. I sold them long ago, but I still dabble into that group every now again. I currently have EOG and it closed at 36.38. It hasnt been this low since the week I started, 1st week in April. I checked some of the others, MPC, VLO, CVX...exact same chart. All this time and they are back to crash levels. I have a call that expires in a month, wow, will it every bounce to get be back to even?!?!?

    submitted by /u/beason7
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    eToro: impressions, doubts and (ignored) lessons from copy trading

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 02:21 PM PDT

    (no promotional content, no affiliate links)

    Hi,

    exactly four years ago, I started copying eToro investors / traders that I selected using the broker's built-in search engine (profitable in last two years, already being copied by others), followed by manual filtering, to take into account fluctuations in yearly returns, composition of their portfolios etc. With that, I got a list of 10 people whom I started to copy on a demo account:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1u52f0XHfr-LauIscKcFDYF0yGTTUr6VY/view?usp=sharing

    In the screenshot you can see that in case of the first two of them the amount invested was $10,000, while for the rest it was just $100. This is because I started copying the first two a couple of weeks earlier; eventually I changed this into $100 the same day I made the screenshot and this is when my calculations start - so this thing is irrelevant, I just cannot travel in time to make another screenshot.

    What I did after that?

    Well, within the next six weeks my profits oscillated between -$11 and +$9.50 (the biggest profit was on Nov 9, a day after US presidential elections). I found this "boring" and discontinued experimenting with copy trading.

    Today I looked back at those ten traders. Here is what I found. Firstly, seven of them are not with eToro anymore; investorNo1, Simple-Stock-Mkt, tradingrelax, 4exPirate, primit, Gallojack, xjurokx. The other three traders are:

    • toppertrader: not being copied by anyone and for a good reason: his loss this year alone is 61.16%!
    • Jean-marcLenfant: copied by only 67 people; his loss this year is -1.09% but in general he is quite successful, with yearly profits ranging from 3.57% to 7.32%.
    • Girem2: he has no copiers, his profit this year is 41.45% but in 2018 he experienced a loss of 83.15%!

    My observations and thoughts are as follows:

    1. Seven out of ten traders are not with eToro anymore, which makes me wonder why. I have no proof but my guess is they simply performed poorly, lost their copiers and closed their accounts. This is already alarming but what if they opened another account? Or, even worse, multiple accounts? They could be investing small money and try different risky approaches, hoping that at least one account will turn out profitable in the long turn, attracting potential copiers. (I'm not claiming that those 7 particular traders did this, it's just my general suspicion regarding some of eToro traders)
    2. I'm unable to calculate what would be my profit if I never stopped copying them, because I cannot check at what day and with what profit those seven traders left eToro. I'm guessing this would be an immense loss. On the other hand, considering the three traders who are still with eToro, I would lose more than a quarter of my assets!

    What now?

    I must be a quite adventurous person or at least an incorrigible optimist, because a month ago (exactly on Aug 26th) I started copying three traders with real money. Here is who they are.

    rubymza (Heloise Greeff)

    • invests in stocks, with GOOG, INTC, BLDP, MA, MSFT, AMZN, V, MU, IBM and NXPI making up 50.3% of her portfolio (allocation of each of them is in between 3.02% and 6.85%)
    • active since 2016 (only the year 2016 ended with a loss)
    • has 3044 copiers and $2M-$5M of copy assets under management
    • strategy (her own words): "My investing strategy focusses mostly on US indices, tech and pharma, promising future (5-10years) growth. My trades are based on technical analysis using machine learning to understand patterns and trends in the markets. I prefer to keep a diverse portfolio to spread risk while achieving great returns."
    • she gave an interview for Bloomberg a couple of weeks ago
    • own experience: I just happened to run across her second worst month ever on eToro; my loss is -6.27% at the time of writing

    OlivierDanvel (Olivier Jean Andre Danvel)

    • he is a Forex trader, making typically 21 trades per week; his favorite currency pairs are EURCHF (12% of trades), CADCHF and GBPUSD; the trades, however, typically make up below 5% of his portfolio (at least whenever I'm checking it), making most of my funds unused
    • active since January 2017: surprisingly enough, he has every single month profitable, though monthly profits are in the range of 0.03% to 3.34% only
    • has 8977 copiers and more than $5M of copy assets under management
    • strategy (his own words): "I monitor currency pairs all day to find the best entry. There is some management/scaling position for perfect entry. The risk control is a big part of my strategy," (quite vague, to be honest)
    • own experience: my current profit is 0.26%

    rayvahey (Raymond Noel Vahey)

    • commodities compose 76% of his portfolio and his favorite assets are Gold and Oil (at the moment, Gold makes up half of invested amount)
    • active since July 2016, with the following yearly profits, starting from 2016: 6.56%, 10.05%, 13.09%, 32.26% and -2.03% (the current year)
    • has 1493 copiers and $1M-$2M of copy assets under management
    • strategy (his own words): "My system is based on patterns, and a variety of technical analysis tools and some fundamental analysis. I primarily trade in commodities. " (quite vague as well)
    • own experience: my profit with rayvahey is 2.56%

    What was my strategy to hand-pick these particular traders? First I did some basic scanning using eToro's built-in search engine. The most important filter was that the trader was profitable within the last two years: unfortunately, eToro does not allow to reach details of earlier performance automatically. To know how the trader performed before 2019, I had to look at stats in the profile of each of them. I was also taking into account how often they trade (to avoid those who do only a couple of trades yearly), whether they were trading recently and whether they write posts regularly in their feed. With this, I got a list of fifteen candidates to copy:

    • olivierdanvel
    • marianopardo
    • rubymza
    • rayvahey
    • martidg97
    • overit
    • misterg23
    • knw500
    • jianswang
    • reinhardtcoetzee
    • miyoshi
    • alderique
    • jarodd76
    • benson9904
    • big-profits

    As you already know, I finally chose three of them. Rubymza seemed to be the most trustworthy stock trader, based on profits, posts feed and regular trading, among other things. Regarding OlivierDanvel, his uniqueness is the ability to record continuous profits with the Forex market. Finally, with rayvahey I wanted to increase my exposure to the commodities market.

    Wish me good luck!

    Michael

    P.S.

    You might find those copy-trading related readings interesting:

    Disclosures:

    • What you see here is my personal opinion, my own investments and should not be treated as investing advice
    • I'm an amateur investor
    submitted by /u/investing-scientist2
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    GME volume fluctuations

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 06:48 AM PDT

    Noticed this morning that $GME had less than 800k volume (with an average of 15.25m) this morning at open. Yesterday it held steady at around 30-40m volume.

    The way I understand it, that means that there was a massive sell off, shouldn't the stock have crashed this morning then? Instead it's up 1.33%

    I am a noob and just want to know what happened

    Also have a $9p 9/25 which I expect to expire worthless😭

    submitted by /u/Arubamama29
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    Swing Trading - Best and Worst Stocks to swing trade right now?

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 12:43 PM PDT

    Not looking for any extreme payoff, just would be nice to make a couple hundred bucks here and there. What stocks have you had success/failure with in swing trading recently?

    submitted by /u/batterylow001
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    Icahn Enterprises (IEP)

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 12:16 PM PDT

    I hope this is the right place for this post.

    I'm doing some research on dividend paying stocks with higher than usual yields.

    I came across IEP and it piqued my interest namely because it is run by Carl Icahn and the dividend is 2 dollars per share.

    Can I ask your opinions on if this would be a good investment for the near or long term, how long do you think they can maintain this high of a dividend yield...

    submitted by /u/Dropperofdeuces
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    Why Did The Stock Market Drop Today?

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 03:41 PM PDT

    Down 69 Points Today

    If you are wondering why the market dropped today we were at the bottom of the vix uptrend and faield to break below 25/26 level then on top of that dollar breaks above SMA and we spike up. If you don't know in the last 90 days the dollar and s&p 500 are inveresely correlated 95% so when the dollar breaks higher and that quickly too the market drops. in combination with the vix being at the bottom of its range gave high probability to spike up and thats what lead to the drop today. I explain in more in detail with charts here if you want to watch but overall this is the main points and i hope it makes sense. let me know if you have any questions.

    https://youtu.be/1xeNDgOuNSk

    submitted by /u/Zabit2
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    New to stocks...

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 09:32 AM PDT

    I'm just getting into stocks right now and I'm wondering good penny stocks or bigger companies to get my portfolio looking good. (I don't even know if I'm using this terminology correctly) I am running a few different simulator stocks and just investing in companies that I know or have seen on the trending list. If anyone could help me that'd be great!

    submitted by /u/benny_buckets
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    Watchlist: 9/23 Reversal? Short List

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 04:21 AM PDT

    Market Notes:

    Yesterday the market posted decent gains after breaking key support last Friday. I expect the SPY to find resistance in the 331-333 area. That is exactly where the market is pointing towards opening this morning.

    I believe today will be a critical day in the overall direction of the market heading into October.

    Watchlist:

    AXGT is a low float, resistance at $4.75

    EVGN is a lowish float, resistance at $3.75

    GHIV is a on watch

    GME watching for a setup above $11

    FTK has resistance at $3

    PRTY resistance at $3.50

    BBBY watching for a setup above $14

    submitted by /u/tradingforkeeps
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    AppSwarm Launches Video Conferencing Platform SwarmConnect™

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 06:59 AM PDT

    With SwarmConnect, a guest can join a meeting simply by clicking a link in their email or messaging program. This ease-of-access is a boon for the average user who may otherwise miss out on the benefits of a video conferencing system.

    Platform Features

    - Video & Audio Conferencing Services
    - Webinar & Web Conferencing
    - Attendee Registration
    - Screen Sharing
    - File Sharing
    - Recording for Rebroadcast
    - Chat

    Webinar Hosting

    SwarmConnect allows users to conduct online training, seminars, or product demonstrations for your clients, colleagues, prospects, and employees. Host distance learning classes for online education. Broadcast live or record your webinar in advance and let attendees view it on demand. SwarmConnect provides the flexibility and convenience of hosting first-class Webinars for everyone to see. By offering powerful communication tools with ubiquity across all platforms, SwarmConnect makes Internet-based collaboration easy and affordable.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/appswarm-launches-video-conferencing-platform-123000878.html

    submitted by /u/NASDQplayer97
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    $DGDM Watch for breakout. Company tweets "Begin in early October 2020" for its product roll out (tiny float)

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 06:41 AM PDT

    FINALLY! Micro floater $DGDM just became active last week, went pink, now starting to release updates. Their big product roll out is expected for October.

    One to keep watch.

    Source: https://twitter.com/DGDMCorporate/status/1308741648420081670?s=20

    PR: https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/DGDM/news/story?e&id=1696378

    submitted by /u/belac1804
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    Global Technologies, Ltd Expands Revenue Stream Through Acquisition and Vendor Approval

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 06:40 AM PDT

    ST. PETERSBURG, FL, Sept. 23, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Global Technologies, Ltd (OTC Pink: GTLL), a holding corporation, which through its subsidiaries, has operations engaged in the online sales of CBD and hemp related products, the acquisition of intellectual property in the safety and security space and as a portal for entrepreneurs to provide immediate access to live shopping, e-commerce, product placement in brick and mortar retail outlets and logistics is pleased to announce that the Company has taken steps to expand its revenue stream through an acquisition and vendor approval.

    On September 3, 2020, the Company entered into a Commitment to be Bound by the Amended Operating Agreement to Effect Transfer of Membership Interest in order to facilitate the transfer of 25 Membership Units (the "Units") issued by Global Clean Solutions, LLC ("Global") and held in the name of Graphene Holdings, LLC ("Graphene") to the Company. In exchange for the transfer of the Units to the Company, the Company issued to Graphene a Convertible Promissory Note (the "Note") in the amount of $250,000. The Note has a term of 6 months, is due on March 3, 2021 and accrues interest at 3% per annum. Upon Closing, the Company holds a twenty-five percent interest in Global.

    Global is a purpose-built entity with a focus on supplying and facilitating the sale of Personal Protective Equipment ("PPE"). In addition to the sale of masks, gowns and gloves, Global recently released its two proprietary hand sanitizer brands: (1) Purple Mountain Clean, and (2) Blue Sky Pure.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-technologies-ltd-expands-revenue-113000483.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

    submitted by /u/NASDQplayer97
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    CNBC still entertaining Gordon Johnson

    Posted: 23 Sep 2020 03:41 AM PDT

    The Tesla bear was back on this morning (UK time). Doesn't the guy ever get sick of being wrong? And why do people invest with him? Surely, he can't have any cash left?

    https://medium.com/@moumj/analyst-that-cost-clients-millions-shorting-tesla-is-now-shorting-aurora-cannabis-9ef94f7509b6

    He also gives out wrong information:

    https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-bear-apologizes-inaccurate-report/

    submitted by /u/MrDopple68
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