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    Saturday, September 5, 2020

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 05:12 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Tesla has been excluded from the S&P 500 rebalance

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 02:33 PM PDT

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3611885-teslaminus-4_3-s-and-p-500-rebalance-skips-automaker

    In a fairly heavy shuffle, several companies are moving among the S&P 500 Index, the S&P MidCap 400 and SmallCap 600 as part of September's quarterly rebalance.

    Not added to the S&P 500 in the rebalance: Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which is down 4.3% after hours.

    Moving into the S&P 500 are Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY), Teradyne (NASDAQ:TER) and Catalent (NYSE:CTLT), as more reflective of that market space. Making room for them are three names heading down to the MidCap 400: H&R Block (NYSE:HRB), Coty (NYSE:COTY) and Kohl's (NYSE:KSS). ETSY is +5.4% postmarket; TER +3.1%; COTY +0.8%; KSS +0.5%.

    Making a market-cap move up to the MidCap 400 are SmallCap 600 constituents Wingstop (NASDAQ:WING), Medpace Holdings (NASDAQ:MEDP) and Fox Factory Holding (NASDAQ:FOXF). They're replacing PBF Energy (NYSE:PBF), Allegheny Technologies (NYSE:ATI) and Mack-Cali Realty (NYSE:CLI), all of which head down to the SmallCap 600. After hours: WING -0.9%; PBF +0.8%; ATI +3.5%.

    Jazz Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:JAZZ) is also joining the MidCap 400, replacing Transocean (NYSE:RIG), which is no longer representative of the space. After hours: JAZZ +4.8%; RIG -0.8%.

    And Mr. Cooper Group (NASDAQ:COOP) and R1 RCM (NASDAQ:RCM) are joining the SmallCap 600, replacing Express (NYSE:EXPR) and Pennsylvania Real Estate (NYSE:PEI). After hours: COOP +1.5%; RCM +7.1%; EXPR -0.5%.

    All moves are effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, Sept. 21.

    You can find the direct link here (PDF warning)

    submitted by /u/PLS_PM_FOOD
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    The bull case for Square: A Top 100 Stock

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 06:39 PM PDT

    While Square is currently looking up at the Top-100 stocks, it's not so far-fetched to think that the company could easily surpass the size of many of today's biggest banks and financial institutions. At the time of this writing, Square has a market cap of $69 billion, while a financial giant like JPMorgan Chase is more than 4.5 times bigger, valued at $313 billion. As a payment processor, Square could even target Visa, and its $420 billion market cap. Will Square take all of Visa's customers tomorrow? No. But, as technology proves to be invaluable to the financial world, Square will slowly begin to eat away at the customer base held by outdated, bloated financial institutions.

    Square innovates away the competition

    There is no denying that digital banking is the future of commerce. It's not just that the coronavirus pandemic has forced the hand of so many consumers and businesses into digital banking, it's that Millenials and Gen Z don't just view mobile banking as a nice feature, they see it as an absolute need. According to a PWC study, 67% of Millenials are already using, or are considering using mobile banking, compared to 60% of Gen X and 46% of Baby Boomers. Luckily, this is where Square excels. The company has invested heavily into mobile banking and payment processing solutions. It has been helping companies process payments with a smartphone since 2010 and has improved on its offerings since then.

    It's not just that Square is ahead in digital banking, unlike some of its counterparts, Square is ahead of the curve in digital currency adoption as well. The company already has a patent on technology that allows merchants to accept payments in cryptocurrency.

    Next stop, banking

    Recently, the company received approval from the FDIC to open its own bank, Square Financial Services. By 2021, Square is expected to provide small businesses with an array of banking products. Banking is the next logical move for Square, which will easily be able to integrate mobile banking, point-of-sale (POS) and its other technology directly with its financial service offerings.

    submitted by /u/mansoortaken
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    U.S. created 1.37 million jobs in August, vs 1.32 million expected; unemployment rate falls to 8.4%

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 05:37 AM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/jobs-report-august-2020-.html

    Nonfarm payrolls increased by 1.37 million in August and the unemployment rate tumbled to 8.4% as the U.S. economy continued to climb its way out of the pandemic downturn.

    The unemployment rate was by far the lowest since the coronavirus shutdown in March, according to Labor Department figures released Friday.

    Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting growth of 1.32 million and the jobless rate to decline to 9.8% from 10.2% in July.

    Government hiring helped boost the total, with the growth of 344,000 workers accounting for a quarter of the monthly gain.

    The report comes amid a raft of mostly positive economic signals, with retail sales, real estate and manufacturing showing sharp rebounds off their coronavirus lows. Still, economists worry that absent another round of stimulus from Congress, the boosts in activity could be short-lived. August's job gains mean that more than half of those displaced during the pandemic are back at work.

    submitted by /u/GloBoy54
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    SoftBank unmasked as ‘Nasdaq whale’ that stoked tech rally - Financial Times

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 07:43 AM PDT

    https://on.ft.com/3gUWUIZ

    SoftBank is the "Nasdaq whale" that has bought billions of dollars' worth of US equity derivatives in a move that stoked the fevered rally in big tech stocks before a sharp pullback on Thursday, according to people familiar with the matter.

    The Japanese conglomerate has been snapping up options in tech stocks during the past month in huge amounts, contributing to the largest trading volumes in contracts linked to individual companies in at least 10 years, these people said. One banker described it as a "dangerous" bet.

    The aggressive move into the options market marks a new chapter for the investment powerhouse, which in recent years has made huge bets on privately held technology start-ups through its $100bn Vision Fund. After the coronavirus market tumult hit those bets hard, the company established an asset management unit for public investments using capital contributed by its founder Masayoshi Son.

    Now it has also made a splash in trading derivatives linked to some of those new investments, which has shocked market veterans. "These are some of the biggest trades I've seen in 20 years of doing this," said one derivatives-focused US hedge fund manager. "The flow is huge."

    The surge in purchases of call options — derivatives that give the user the right to buy a stock at a pre-agreed price — has been the talk of Wall Street in recent weeks, as the sheer size of the trades appears to have exacerbated a "melt-up" in many big technology stocks over the summer. Shares in Tesla soared 26 per cent in under a week to September 1, while Amazon and Google parent Alphabet gained about 9 per cent.

    One person familiar with SoftBank's trades said it was "gobbling up" options on a scale that was even making some people within the organisation nervous. "People are caught with their pants down, massively short. This can continue. The whale is still hungry."

    The options boom means that the US stock market remains vulnerable to further bursts of volatility, according to Charlie McElligott, a strategist at Nomura. "The street is still very much in a dangerous space, and that flow is still out there," he said in a note on Friday, adding that this leaves the market open to swings higher or lower.

    The overall nominal value of calls traded on individual US stocks has averaged $335bn a day over the past two weeks, according to Goldman Sachs. That is more than triple the rolling average in 2017 to 2019. The retail trading boom has played a big part of the frenzy, but investors say the size of many recent option purchases are far too big to be retail-driven.

    submitted by /u/fitnessfatness
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    Fidelity says we're in an early cycle bull market - do you guys agree?

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 03:13 PM PDT

    Source: https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/markets-sectors/bull-market-highs?ccsource=email_weekly

    Key takeaways from the article:

    • The stock market hit new highs last week, and the history of market cycles suggests that the current bull market trend could continue for some time to come.
    • In terms of the business cycle, the US economy is out of recession and into an early cycle recovery.
    • In addition, the market continues to display characteristics of a secular bull market. Secular bull markets are prolonged super-cycles in which the market produces above average returns.
    • Factors supporting the secular thesis include de-equitization (the number of public stocks is declining), a highly accommodative monetary policy, and a weaker dollar.

    Interested in hearing your opinions.

    submitted by /u/initialzx
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    What is it about media stocks that Buffett loves so much?

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 07:17 PM PDT

    I haven't been able to figure out why he loved media stocks so much. Looking at current media broadcasting stocks to see how they're trading, the sector seems to be trading at some cheap valuations (on a P/E basis, EV/EBIT leaves some of them rather expensive depending on what your preferred valuation method is):

    SBGI (Sinclair Broadcasting): EV/EBIT 1.6x, P/E of 4.2 (23.80% earnings yield), ROE 29.8% over ten years

    GTN (Gray Television): EV/EBIT 10.4x, P/E of 6.4 (15.625% earnings yield), ROE 16.4% over ten years

    TGNA (Tegna): EV/EBIT 12.4x, P/E of 11.3 (8.84% earnings yield), ROE 18.2% over ten years

    NXST (Nexstar): EV/EBIT 15.4x, P/E of 11.9 (8.40% earnings yield), ROE 27.5% over ten years

    SSP (Scripps): EV/EBIT 31.4x, P/E of -19.4 (invert EBIT/EV to get a 3.184% earnings yield), ROE 0.9% over 10 years.

    So you have a mix of cheap valuations and some stellar ROE over the past decade and rightfully so. Is high ROE a hallmark of the media industry? Is this why Buffett likes these companies? I don't understand his draw to them. His draw to banks and insurance I understand since that's rather self explanatory but media? I'm lost.

    submitted by /u/howtoreadspaghetti
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    I've analyzed Snowflake numbers before its IPO

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 07:06 PM PDT

    Snowflake is one of the fastest growing SaaS companies in the world. I've analyzed their numbers:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/SecurityAnalysis/comments/imt10v/ive_analyzed_snowflake_numbers_before_it_goes_ipo/

    submitted by /u/giugiacaglia
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    Goldman shortlists 19 stocks to focus on when a vaccine arrives

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 09:59 AM PDT

    While Goldman is not taking a view on when a vaccine will be approved, they shortlisted 19 stocks that they believe could outperform once a vaccine is approved. These stocks are broadly divided into 4 categories:

    1. Stocks that have sold off in 2020, but should bounce back after people are able to 'return-to-normal'

    $ACC (campus student housing), $BDX (syringes for administering a vaccine), $BFAM (child care), $FUN (amusement park), $LW (french fry maker), $UAL (air travel)

    2. Stocks that appear to have gained a competitive advantage but need their markets to reopen as competitors have dropped out of the business, failed, or are grappling with balance sheet issues.

    $DIS (Disney), $IMAX (movies), $ITT (brake pads), $SBUX, $ULTA (beauty retailer/salon)

    3. Stocks that should bounce back when global growth recovers

    $BA (planes), $BG (agriculture processor), $CAT (machinery & equipment), $CE (global chemical demand), $HUN (speciailty chemicals)

    4. Stocks that should be okay over the long-term, but there may still be doubts -- even after a vaccine is approved

    $BXP (commerical offices), $SLG (offices), $UFS (office paper)

    submitted by /u/street-guru
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    Have US savings bonds ever been a good investment?

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 05:39 PM PDT

    When I was a kid, my parents bought me a savings bond every month. This was supposed to be my college fund.

    My dad decided to spend that money on himself and I got to pay for college using loans, but that's beside the point...

    I'm now investing into an S&P 500 index in a 529 account for my son. At almost 2 years old, he already has half the amount that I would have had at 18. By the time he graduates high school, he'll have almost 5x what I would have had, though I'm not investing much more per month than the cost of the savings bonds my parents bought.

    Which begs the question for me... Why buy savings bonds? From where I'm sitting, they feel more like a super low interest loan to the US government. Did they used to be better? Or have they always been kind of a scam?

    submitted by /u/dmmagic
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    Any actually helpful Green ETFs?

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 02:53 PM PDT

    I'm aware of various ETFs such as iShares that cover a wide range of the renewable energy market which is great! However...

    There are more environmental issues in mind than just the burning of fossil fuels.

    I'm curious if there is an ETF that covers all types of green companies developing means of fighting environmental issues such as cleaning the plastic from oceans or restoring deforested areas or wildlife.

    If so I'd love to hear about them since I want to invest in my future not my now

    submitted by /u/A_Wammy
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    Vanguard site looks different

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 05:20 PM PDT

    Anyone else notice that their Vanguard site has switched back its old design style this week? Ever since Monday the site looks like it used to a couple years ago (completely different user interface). Just wondering if anyone else is experiencing this as well

    submitted by /u/gunsoverbutter
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    [Opinion] The real reason why Tesla hasn't been added to the S&P 500

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 10:06 PM PDT

    So far S&P Global hasn't offered any explanation on the rejection but is expected to do in the coming weeks. They will probably blame the "Regulatory Credits" but IMO the real reason has to do with the behavior of some hedge funds and retail investors that bought Tesla shares with the intend to dump them at a higher price on the S&P 500 ETFs.
    Here in Germany there was recently a scandal involving the German DAX index that added a higly speculative and hyped company called Wirecard, once added to the index the company started a steep decline and eventually went bankrupt causing harm to not only Wirecard investors but also DAX ETFs. S&P Global has a reputation to maintain, so my guess is that for them the risk of adding a highly speculative company largely outweighs the benefits.

    submitted by /u/pandoira
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    CNBC: Robinhood traders need to get burned a bit.

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 04:33 AM PDT

    Article: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/traders-say-the-sell-off-was-overdue-has-more-to-go-robinhood-traders-need-to-get-burned-a-bit.html

    Everyone on this sub is sure robinhood traders don't have any influence on the market but it seems some of the analyst pros giving interviews at CNBC disagree with this subs sentiment.

    Here is an excerpt: "What about the Robinhood crowd—the retail traders who have been so active? Maley has little sympathy.

    "The Robinhood traders need to get burned a bit. It will make them more honest. They won't just buy things hand over fist. This will put some fear into them, and take some froth out of the market.""

    If robinhood traders didn't effect the market in any significant way why is it so important they get burned to ease the froth in the market? Discuss

    submitted by /u/Xx360StalinScopedxX
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    Luxury Natural Diamond Market Soars at Christie's Online Auction

    Posted: 05 Sep 2020 03:30 AM PDT

    High end natural fancy color diamonds are turning out to be a great investment and safe haven asset. Christie's recent online auction rocked! Christie's auction. Investment diamonds are a tax free form of wealth preservation and very profitable when purchased at wholesale and sold at retail via the global luxury auction market.

    deluxediamondinvestments.com

    submitted by /u/diamondbiz
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    Tesla Stock Could Tumble Over 90%, Says Analyst

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 02:44 PM PDT

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-could-tumble-over-200529902.html?theme=2&_v=1&color=1&hl=en&sp=1

    GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson expects Tesla shares to be changing hands for $19 each a year from now (yes, that's not a typo), implying a decline of 96%. Needless to say, Johnson's rating for Tesla is a Sell.

    The problems? Let's see. Take away "FSD (full self-driving) and credit sales in 2020," and Johnson believes TSLA will lose roughly $200 million "in both 3Q20 and 4Q20," adding "the core business is still a perpetual loss maker."

    "When does it end?" Johnson asks, "We don't know... but what we are confident of is that TSLA's fundamentals are worsening by the day, and when this ends TSLA will trade down to fair value. Thus, despite all the, quite frankly, BS analysis (lacking of any actual numbers) we see out there, we are sticking with our fundamental view."

    submitted by /u/Michael12390
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    NVDA bull case, need advice

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 08:29 AM PDT

    I personally love this company despite the high multiple and stock being overvalued because of how innovating they are year after year and amazing leadership. There is still lot of growth in cloud and autonomous sector and they have no real competition in my opinion beside TESLA. Just watch their GTC keynote if you haven't. Its crazy how much they are keep innovating. Image processing is going to be central for AI, scientific research, autonomous and you have to use their data centers since no personal computer can have that much GPU power.

    Can someone in the field share more knowledge on how crucial GPU will be in coming years and how easy it is for competition to catch up?

    submitted by /u/daynightcase
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    Assigning option after hours

    Posted: 05 Sep 2020 01:57 AM PDT

    Something really weird has happened in my account.

    I sold 3 410P on TSLA expiring 09/04 (yesterday). I let it expire worthless as the stock price was at ~420. And indeed the stock closed at 418.

    Now I checked my account, and noticed that I've bought 300 shares of TSLA at 410 per share.

    I called my broker (Schwab) and they claim that options may be exercised until 5PM-E.T.

    TSLA tanked 7% after hours, but they started tanking at 5:15PM !!

    But the broker insists that probably someone exercised these PUTs at loss, and that's why I had the obligation to buy these shares and now I'm fucked.

    Is he right?

    submitted by /u/JeniaG13
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    Stock on sale or Bull trap

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 02:19 PM PDT

    Many of us are probably thinking about buying the dip because stock is on sale. That is a valid strategy if we look at the dip in the right context. If a stock is under-priced or reasonably priced, then the dip presents a huge buying opportunity because the stock is now even more under-priced. If a stock is over-hyped and has seen massive gain over very short period of time, then the dip is a trap. So let look at some number:

    Pre-covid Price (Feb 20) Gain (from Feb 20 to Aug 31) Drop (from Aug 31 to Sep 4)
    Tesla $179.88 177.03% -16.05%
    Apple $80.08 61.14% -6.26%
    AMD $58.90 58.58% -9.71

    On Aug 31, Tesla was at 177.03% above its pre-covid price. Now, it just drops 16.05%. Is it on sale? Obviously no because it's still more than 100% above its pre-covid price. Imagine during Labor Day, stores increase their merchandise's price heavily and then put a 16%-off sticker on it. Would you rush into the stores to buy the merchandise because it's 16% off? Most likely no.

    We are only 60 days away from the presidential election, so there are a lot of uncertainty and volatility. So don't FOMO or YOLO into buying the dip of all the ATH stocks. And take profit if you already have massive gain.

    submitted by /u/learner4f
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    Estate taxes for non US residents

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 03:53 AM PDT

    Hi, I recently came across an article discussing types of taxes that non US investors need to pay for investments held within US. One interesting item was the estate tax liability on US securities held by non US residents.

    If you hold more than USD 60K in assets within US then you(or any beneficiary of your assets) are liable to pay 40% as estate taxes post your death.source

    This limit seems way less than the USD 10M set for US residents :(

    Maybe you can plan to slowly offload you US held assets over your life to be in a position to not pay this death tax but is there any other options to lessen it? I don't mean to sound like a dick who is trying to avoid taxes but many people from developing nations around the world have employee stock options in US as a substantial means of investment and if something unforeseen happens then it is quite unfortunate that 40% of those would be payable as taxes.

    submitted by /u/greyasshairs
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    ETF only portfolios

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 04:59 PM PDT

    What are your opinions about ETF only portfolios.

    With the rise of 0 commission trading it's very possible to buy your own stocks but I still prefer etfs. Haven't seen the statistics but are most people geared towards ETF rather than individual stocks?

    submitted by /u/VideoGame_Art
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    Great sites for setting up custom graphs (dashboard) and email alerts

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 11:38 AM PDT

    Hi, I find myself keeping up to date checking the stock prices on the same old stock list, and unfortunately not always keeping taps on all of them on a daily basis. What would be a huge game changer would be somewhere where I could set up the stock graphs I want to follow (ideally with key indicators) that could be pushed out as a daily email providing a quick overview of how "my" market is performing. This could further help with not missing opportune moments to buy a stock I have been wanting to keep an eye on or miss out on selling on big spikes.

    I would furthermore be looking to set up email alerts for e.g. "if this drops below X" send email.

    Any of you guys doing something similar or know about some tools or sites for making this happen?

    submitted by /u/nesdroc
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    Wealthpress

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 04:17 PM PDT

    Is wealthpress a scam? I keep getting ads on youtube and on one ad they claimed that you could make 800% overnight and then in the same ad they said you could double your earnings in a year. They also gave a bunch of "testimonials". I'm just asking around since I don't see anything on it being a scam.

    submitted by /u/FindingAlternative
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    HELP: Where and how to buy penny stock $BNNLF, (Bannerman Resources)

    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 08:00 PM PDT

    This is not advice. I downloaded webull for the express purpose of getting my hands on this stock and it tells me it is not trade able due to being a penny stock. Frankly I don't care. I just want to buy it.

    We can discuss why below if you wish but I really just need to get my hands on an exchange that offers stocks like this with hopefully a low brokerage fee. Thank you.

    submitted by /u/richman76547
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