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    Wednesday, September 2, 2020

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 01 Sep 2020 05:13 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    What would happen to major tech stocks (such as Apple, Amazon, Facebook, etc) if the companies get broken up?

    Posted: 01 Sep 2020 09:33 PM PDT

    There has been a lot of talk of antitrust recently (which I believe and support). So what would happen if the companies get broken up?

    I've never seen a major company get broken up. For example, if Facebook has to make instagram a separate company (based on law), would Instagram have its own stock? Would my current Facebook share be reduced and I would gain an Instagram share?

    submitted by /u/freebird348
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    Tesla has just issued a $5bn capital raise

    Posted: 01 Sep 2020 05:07 AM PDT

    https://sec.report/Document/0001193125-20-236699/

    We have entered into an equity distribution agreement, or the equity distribution agreement, with Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, BofA Securities, Inc., Barclays Capital Inc., Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, SG Americas Securities, LLC, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and BNP Paribas Securities Corp., as our sales agents, under which we may offer and sell from time to time our common stock having an aggregate offering price of up to $5,000,000,000. The sales agents may act as agents on our behalf or purchase shares of our common stock as principal.

    Our common stock is traded on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol "TSLA." The last reported sale price of our common stock on August 31, 2020, as reported on the Nasdaq Global Select Market, was $498.32 per share.

    Sales, if any, of common stock under the equity distribution agreement may be made in ordinary brokers' transactions, to or through a market maker, on or through the Nasdaq Global Select Market or any other market venue where the securities may be traded, in the over-the-counter market, in privately negotiated transactions, in block trades, in transactions that are deemed to be "at the market offerings" as defined in Rule 415 under the Securities Act or through a combination of any such methods of sale. The sales agents may also sell our common stock by any other method permitted by law. We will designate the maximum amount of common stock to be sold through the sales agents on a daily basis or otherwise as we and the sales agents agree and the minimum price per share at which such common stock may be sold. Subject to the terms and conditions of the equity distribution agreement, the sales agents will use their reasonable efforts consistent with their normal sales and trading practices to sell on our behalf all of the designated shares of common stock. We may instruct the sales agents not to sell any common stock if the sales cannot be effected at or above the price designated by us in any such instruction. We or any sales agent, with respect to itself only, may suspend the offering of our common stock by notifying the other party.

    We will pay each sales agent a commission of up to 0.5% of the gross sales price per share of common stock sold through such agent under the equity distribution agreement. We have also agreed to reimburse the sales agents for certain of their expenses. In connection with the sale of the shares of common stock on our behalf, each of the sales agents may be deemed to be an "underwriter" within the meaning of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Act, and the compensation paid to each of the sales agents may be deemed to be underwriting commissions or discounts. See "Plan of Distribution."

    Settlement of any sales of common stock will occur on the second business day following the date on which such sales were made (or such earlier day as is industry practice for regular-way trading).

    There is no arrangement for funds to be received in an escrow, trust or similar arrangement. Sales of our common stock as contemplated in this prospectus supplement will be settled through the facilities of The Depository Trust Company or by such other means as we and the sales agents may agree.

    submitted by /u/PLS_PM_FOOD
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    Is it a crazy idea to invest in Real Estate Index Funds now?

    Posted: 01 Sep 2020 06:05 PM PDT

    I keep a tiny portion (5%) of my portfolio in a Real Estate Index Fund. Obviously, with all that's going on in the world, my RE fund is down a significant amount.

    Logically I'm thinking I should buy more. But I don't want to 'overbuy'. I prefer to keep the amount to 5%, but is it silly to put some money into a Real Estate Index Fund right now?

    I'm not trying to time the market or anything, but I guess I'm not sure if I should temporarily increase my holdings based on the fact that I'd be 'buying at a discount'.

    submitted by /u/CKyle22
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    Apple's Market Cap reaches 2.3 Trillion - twice what was in April 2020 (1.1).. - Too big to fail? Too much faith?

    Posted: 01 Sep 2020 11:38 AM PDT

    I briefly talked yesterday about Tesla's market cap and how it was absurdly priced and honestly felt like gambling to me. However, APPL is somewhat overlooked as well and I wanted to hear your guys' thoughts on it!

    Apple's Market Cap as of right now is 2.3 Trillion (Source). On August 20, it was 2 Trillion. It has added 300 billion in about 10 days - without having added any products what soever (primarily due to the stock split).

    In April of this year, it was 1.1 Trillion or so. It has since doubled since that time, so much so that it is the size of the GDP of France (https://www.statista.com/statistics/685925/gdp-of-european-countries/)

    Now, I am all for Apple devices and services. They make some of the best products ever. They have crazy high margins and once a consumer buys an Apple device, he has to buy other ones due to the seamless integration it provides (biggest selling point). It is now getting in more markets such as India with its' new iPhone SE 2, but I am somewhat skeptical on its' valuation.

    I feel like people are buying AAPL due to its security - it has always gone up, so it will always go up - and therefore, it's safe to park their money there. Some are even likening it to Treasury Bonds - that it's better to put your money in AAPL stock because it's safe and because it's so big, it won't fail.

    I wanted to know if AAPL is overvalued/overpriced or not? I know the first 5G iPhone is coming out and it will have an impact but still, are people putting too much blind trust/faith in AAPL?

    Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/rsoni1997
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    Why Wells Fargo and HSBC stocks are now even more down than during March 2020 fall?

    Posted: 01 Sep 2020 06:42 PM PDT

    Hi everyone.

    Stocks of all major US banks fell in March 2020, but most of them significantly regained their losses. From major US banks only Wells Fargo and HSBC stocks are still about 2 times cheeper compared with their February 2020 maximum and are even more down compared with March fall.

    What do you think, is it now a good time to purchase WFC and HSBC stocks or they can fail like some giant banks in 2008?

    submitted by /u/aramtas
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    Dating app Bumble preparing for an IPO above $6 Billion

    Posted: 02 Sep 2020 01:30 AM PDT

    The popular dating app Bumble is preparing for an initial public offering, could seek a valuation of $6 billion to $8 billion, according to people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported.

    submitted by /u/jordanbevann
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    Analyzing US Stock Market vs. International Market - Long Time Frame

    Posted: 01 Sep 2020 05:26 PM PDT

    The recommendation is to have a strong mix of US stock and international stock in your overall portfolio. The percentages can differ, but it is a fairly common to have both. Some argue that having a pure US stock index is already pretty diversified because many companies within an index such as the S&P are international companies and in-directly related.

    I want to draw the comparison visually, but having a tough time picking funds that can illustrate that point.

    Does anyone know of a resource that compares these two concepts in detail? Or, 2 funds that have an inception date far in the past and both international and US funds are similar dates?

    I am interested to see the correlation because sometimes one might be up, the other down, etc. But I am guessing they follow a pretty close correlation.. neither will be drastically down and the other drastically up. Rather, they follow the same trend (as we would except with world globalization).

    submitted by /u/Austins-Reddit
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    CMV: "Fundamentals" and P/E ratio do not and have never mattered

    Posted: 01 Sep 2020 10:41 PM PDT

    Change my view: Folks always be saying that certain stocks are too expensive and will inevitably fall back down to lower prices as defined by their fundamentals. Their P/E is too high. It costs this much investment to get a dollar of revenue back. Or that the market cap is too high. These other companies have multiple times the revenue and assets with a much smaller market cap or lower stock price than company ABC, so it makes no sense to buy ABC.

    If we purely go by fundamentals and P/E, then every stock will have a mathematically calculated price based on all of these numbers and comparisons with other available stocks.

    But that's how how stocks are priced. I do not invest 1000 in ABC stock because I expect this much revenue from my shares, or that much in value from their assets. I buy my ABC stock because I'm speculating that the demand for the stock continues to go up and someone else will want to buy my shares for a higher price in the future. Regardless of "fundamentals".

    For the past 15 years I've chosen investments purely based on speculation of future demand and have never glanced at a balance sheet or looked at any numbers. My long term holdings have grown anywhere from 300-1100%. I have invested through the Great Recession, the 2018 mini recession, and the Covid dip and have always come out fine on the other side by buying stocks that I believe are popular and sexy and stay in demand by their brand and utility to society. Open to having my mind changed that this is not a viable or smart investment strategy.

    submitted by /u/askdogey
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    Planning for a crash/correction scenario

    Posted: 01 Sep 2020 01:55 PM PDT

    Many people are making the case for a significant correction in markets right now. Specifically, people point to the over extension of tech. This is impacting the way people are looking at the bigger market and considering that the FAANGs have become such a massive part of the indexs, if they pull back, they entire market will likely sell off and take a large dip.

    I am very reluctant to pull out of the market completely due to what many (including myself) see as a risk on scenario. What are some effective ways to plan to minimize damage?

    If you roll into other sectors of the market, they are just as likely to take a hit. I don't see it as effective to just pull out completely for a correction where you may miss just as much grow as a pull back brings.

    Is a stop-loss the mist effective strategy?

    submitted by /u/SirNoods
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    Can I loss money selling covered calls?

    Posted: 02 Sep 2020 12:43 AM PDT

    Theoretically let's say I was going to buy 100 shares of a company I would have bought regardless since I believe in the companies potential, is there any way I would loss on selling the covered call aside from the two options listed below?

    1. Losing from the potential stock gain. Might be a bit contradictory since if I believe in the company I should be holding the stocks regardless but I would want to have part of my portfolio for holding and the rest low risk decent reward covered calls. Technically in this scenario I wouldn't be paying a cost to front the shares as these are shares I would invest in regardless.

    2. The stock price drops. The loss in this case would be I suppose losing value on the shares themselves but I would still cash in on the premium. Since these are stocks I believe in and would want to buy regardless I could in a sense just hold long term if it drops and just collect the premium no? In this case the loss would be no different than if I had just bought and held the shares outright without selling the covered call.

    So putting these 2 risks of loss aside is there any other way I could make a loss selling a covered call? I understand it may be better to buy and hold the 100 shares if its a company I believe in but I wanted to find a very low risk method and with the cost of certain bids on blue chip stock it really seems like I could get a guaranteed 10-15% return monthly on certain stocks, assuming I would be willing to weather through and hold these 100 shares if the price were to drop anyways. Am I wrong in thinking so? Is there any other loss I could incur aside from the two scenarios of losing out on potential gain and share price drop on the 100 shares?

    submitted by /u/ineedtojackit
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    Thoughts on $MGM?

    Posted: 01 Sep 2020 09:45 AM PDT

    I bought into $MGM a few weeks ago after I heard about the $1bn investment from $IAC. The reasoning is that MGM has big plans to digitize and invest bigtime in online gambling. It's a long play though, might take a couple of years to launch in any significant way. They just laid off 10,000 employees from their resorts but the stock is still up. I tend to love IAC and their investments in general, and $IAC stock has done quite well for me the last couple of years.

    Does anyone else have any pros/cons for $MGM?

    submitted by /u/Z_Designer
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    The bubble conversation.

    Posted: 01 Sep 2020 07:17 PM PDT

    So I'm not blind to the conversation of a pending market crash. My only long is TSLA where my avg is now $200 after picking up a few share post split. My portfolio lives and dies by the hand of Tesla but in any case I have been doing well maintaining liquidity and taking small wins on small positions daily bringing $50-150 on each short. Ive been doing my best to avoid getting too attached to anything even if I sell for profit and it continues up. I do not chase unless it is early in a rally. My goal is to consolidate as much capital and splurge on blue chips in the event of a crash. Rather then take calls or hedge with GOLD. I'm rather new to investing like many others and I've poured a lot of my earnings into the market the past few months so for me a 40% drop on long holds would hurt me. My outlook is if professional investors are screaming crash I would rather bet on their anxiety being real rather then manipulation. My ROI this year is 62% while a lot of this accounts for the gains via TSLA I've made about $1500 via a short strategy. While I understand that I'm leaving a lot on the table I'm viewing this as a scalper taking a lot of small victories across a consistent period of time.

    While a conservative approach may be less lucrative if the endless rally somehow continues I'm looking for a bit of affirmation or someone to play devils advocate. I'm still relatively new. I am consuming all the information I can to learn but I'm not blind to the atmosphere of the market we are in. Everyone and their mother is trading, the fed keeps buying something has to give right?

    submitted by /u/fatrickchewing
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    Hedge Fund Presentation

    Posted: 01 Sep 2020 11:47 PM PDT

    Nice collection of presentations over the last few years by various hedge funds for investments in companies across numerous industries. If you're just starting out with your own investments or are interested in how the Buy-side views companies that they believe have the best risk/reward for stock position purchases you may enjoy this.

    https://www.10xebitda.com/hedge-fund-presentations/

    If anyone has experience using the 10xEbitda site I would love to hear what you think of their offerings. Seems to be a nice resource if you're just starting out or already have a decent amount of investing knowledge.

    submitted by /u/DURO208
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    Hi does anyone have any suggestions for good investment books to read? Just getting started. :)

    Posted: 01 Sep 2020 11:24 PM PDT

    Hi does anyone have any suggestions for good investment books to read? Just getting started. :)

    Been looking for a while and haven't found one but am very interested in starting up.

    Just trying to reach the character limit now as this is a short question but any advice would be very helpful.

    submitted by /u/hamishguyyy
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    Can we have a more nuanced discussion about levered ETFs

    Posted: 01 Sep 2020 07:36 AM PDT

    The prevailing attitude around here seems to be that levered ETFs should be avoided like the plague. It usually goes something like HUR DUR volatility drag bad make money go away. You can see the effects quite clearly in the table below:

    S&P 500 vs. Daily Leveraged S&P 500 (August 8, 2011 – August 15, 2011)

    Index 8/8/2011 8/9/2011 8/10/2011 8/11/2011 8/12/2011 8/15/2011 Cumulative Return
    S&P 500 -6.65% 4.74% -4.37% 4.65% 0.53% 2.19% 0.51%
    1.25x -8.31% 5.93% -5.47% 5.81% 0.66% 2.73% 0.46%
    2x -13.30% 9.49% -8.75% 9.29% 1.06% 4.37% -0.14%
    3x -19.95% 14.23% -13.12% 13.94% 1.58% 6.56% -2.02%

    Source

    It's clear that in markets that trend sideways with lots of volatility the end result is a net negative for levered ETFs. It's usually argued that overtime this decay will gradually erode the value of the investment. However, back testing a levered version of the S&P500 seems to show otherwise (assuming a 1% expense ratio):

    Unleveraged Buy and Hold versus Leveraged Buy and Hold (October 1928 – October 2015)

    S&P 500 S&P 1.25x S&P 2x S&P 3x
    Annual Return 9.1% 9.8% 13.7% 15.3%
    Annual Volatility 18.9% 23.6% 37.8% 56.7%

    Source

    The study that I'm sourcing here goes on the discuss relocating the investment elsewhere (treasuries or cash) in times where the underlying index is below the 200-day moving average (indicating higher than normal periods of volatility). By doing so they were able to reduce volatility and improve return.

    Unleveraged Buy and Hold versus Leveraged Rotation Strategies (Oct 1928 – Oct 2015)

    S&P 500 S&P 1.25x S&P 2x S&P 3x
    Annual Return 9.1% 12.5% 19.1% 26.8%
    Annual Volatility 18.9% 15.5% 24.9% 37.3%

    Source

    I would highly recommend giving the study a read, it's pretty interesting. I would love to hear what you guys think.

    submitted by /u/HardPoop69
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    I know noone holds CFDs for long term but why exactly?

    Posted: 01 Sep 2020 08:51 PM PDT

    I am holding AAPL, AMD, INTC and TSLA for a while now (months that is) and the profit has been extremely high, so high even that a major fall back at each position, would still result in a profitable position.

    What are the downsides of this tactic other than the high risk factor in trading on margin, when one has enough funds to back the positions (in order to prevent a forced-close) and when the open positions have been gone far up from when the trader bought them?

    submitted by /u/guy_with_his_hair
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    $WMT - analysts react to launch of Walmart+ on Sep 15

    Posted: 01 Sep 2020 12:06 PM PDT

    Credit Suisse: "The news should be positive for the longer-term story, given the initial interest in the service that we highlighted in our survey in July, the opportunity to deepen customer relationships and gain better data, and the potential for further re-valuation of this company over time. That said, we think that there is little incremental today vs. what the stock has been embedding after the initial run up in July, and the near-term direction of the stock will depend on comps and relative traffic trends due to the impact from unique COVID-related factors as detailed a couple weeks ago."

    "Ultimately, the main value in the offering seems to be the speed of home delivery... Missing from this program is free shipping (next day/two day) with no threshold on the broader and growing online assortment, a key value of Prime and a feature that ranked high in our survey (number two, right behind free same day grocery)."

    "In that context, one key factor will be breadth of general merchandise SKU's available for this same day option, to make it competitive vs. Prime."

    "Initial interest in our July survey showed 61% of respondents said "yes" or "maybe" to subscribing to Walmart+, and 70% within the 18-44 age cohort."

    Jefferies: "We remain pos. on WMT's now official Walmart+ subscription offering as it helps tie together WMT's omni-channel efforts and is progress towards a legit ecosystem (TikTok would help) w/ a strong physical footprint that is increasingly competitive vs. AMZN. Today's announcement is largely in line with expectations, but we expect add'l benefits to come in the next few qtrs. N-T EBIT could take a hit on investment, but we see considerable L-T val. expansion oppty."

    "We believe this is the right time for WMT to capitalize on accel'd ecomm demand by leveraging its incumbency in grocery and superior omnichannel capabilities to make progress towards establishing a legit ecosystem that a potential TikTok deal could make whole."

    "We view WMT's 4,700+ store network as a potential advantage over AMZN from a distribution perspective, esp. if WMT can leverage its footprint as 3P Marketplace vendors come onto the platform. While all of this may come at a cost to N/I-T earnings, we see this as the correct move if WMT is to create a true ecosystem that's able to compete w/ AMZN over the L-T, esp. as the online giant continues to push more and more into the physical world."

    submitted by /u/street-guru
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    Any way to get early exposure to LTSE (Long-Term Stock Exchange)?

    Posted: 02 Sep 2020 12:33 AM PDT

    Sorry for newbie questions!

    What would be the best / easiest way to get exposure to the new Long-Term Stock Exchange? Ideally, via some index tracking ETF.

    PS I am not even sure the thing is fully live yet? In any case, would be interested in "queuing in" for the early listings.

    submitted by /u/qertoip
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    Compression and Depression

    Posted: 02 Sep 2020 04:18 AM PDT

    I was saving 90% of my check to invest for almost 2 years straight. I just came off the road from doing OTR (over the road) trucking (53' trailers semi) and i was making over 1k a week. Now I'm in a small town have a baby on the way have two teens to take care of and my lifestyle inflated 120%, naturally I'd like to live under my means. That's currently impossible, and ive already retracted all my spending possible with our jeopardizing my kids future. So this is simply a post to state and ask how do you deal with this sort of compression without ending up depressed. I whole heartedly want to just say fuck it and dump money into this downed economy and spring forward like I'm shot out of a cannon. Not to mention my towns jobs suck and I just found a 11hrly. Talk about pay deduction.

    submitted by /u/Mitisuit
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    Would you want to short the market in the near future?

    Posted: 02 Sep 2020 03:42 AM PDT

    The Market is lacking in red days and it's rallying up without any factual concerns. I recently read a article by Saurabh Mukherjae (An Indian investor), stating that it's correct and good that the market and the economy are divorced. The stock market moves and predicts the next 5-10 years of economy. It's not truly reacting to the current facts because it's not a concern for no st of the investors as they are trying to look at a bigger picture which is the decade growth. All this does makes sense because soon enough we might see a growth in hotel, transportation, finance and oil industry. Only thing is that there might be a correction waiting for us to short. Maybe this might be a tech related correlation?

    My eyes is on SQQQ. Any thoughts of best stocks to short.

    submitted by /u/Bhandari2065
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    Long Term Views on Exxon Mobil?

    Posted: 01 Sep 2020 11:49 AM PDT

    Just wanted to hear what people have to say regarding Exxon. Recently they are being punished after being removed from Dow. To me it seems like post covid when everything's back to normal (demand for fuel rises) the stock is gonna soar. Am I missing something?

    Disclosure : I've invested in Exxon

    submitted by /u/sd9com
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    How has Dave Ramsey arrived at this figure of $8 million for retirement?

    Posted: 02 Sep 2020 03:24 AM PDT

    I was watching a very recent Dave Ramsey video on YouTube where the question was 'how do I know when I have enough money to retire'? Dave said that if he used the average salary in the US of $60,000 and that 15% of that ($9,000) was saved from age 30 to 70 (40 years), that you would end up with about $8 million. Can anyone help me figure out how he has arrived at the figure of $8 million?

    submitted by /u/jjnava7
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    Hedging Currency Risk

    Posted: 02 Sep 2020 01:44 AM PDT

    I'm from Australia and want to start investing in US equities. I'm concerned about the AUD strengthening against the USD which would hurt my returns. I'm thinking of using warrants to hedge, but is there a rule where you hedge using X% of the international investment. I can't seem to find anything on this.

    Cheers

    submitted by /u/Delta_Analytics
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