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    Wednesday, August 26, 2020

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 05:10 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    What are three tech stocks you think still have a ton of opportunity for large growth?

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 04:13 PM PDT

    Okay the aftermath of the covid dip for tech stocks has been pretty crazy.

    I've been mostly in tech stocks for the past 4 years, and this year has been a wild ride.

    Some companies seemingly starting to slow down, but others have a ton of room for growth.

    What would be your top three tech stocks you would add if you were buying tomorrow?

    submitted by /u/Glovers0telephony
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    Carl Icahn Scores $1.3 Billion on Bet Against Shopping Malls

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 05:55 AM PDT

    Icahn's Big Payday

    Investor Carl Icahn's bet on the downfall of brick-and-mortar retailers produced a $1.3 billion gain during the first half of the year.

    The profit came from a short position on commercial mortgage backed securities, Icahn Enterprises LP said Monday in a regulatory filing. Icahn's publicly traded holding company has committed capital to his proprietary investment funds and thus reports on their returns quarterly.

    Icahn, 84, began making the bet, frequently called the "mall short," in mid-2019 by purchasing credit default insurance using CMBX 6, an index highly exposed to shopping mall loans. The likelihood of defaults soared in March as the Covid-19 pandemic led to store closures and prompted more consumers to shop online, accelerating a trend already well underway.

    submitted by /u/kbgecko
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    Palantir lost $580 million last year

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 03:28 PM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/25/palantir-files-s-1-before-going-public.html

    The company derives more than 20% of its revenue from two unnamed customers, according to Tuesday's filing.

    submitted by /u/RealWest321
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    Is Bitcoin a leading indicator for stocks? (plot attached)

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 07:43 PM PDT

    I read an article that claimed that Bitcoin tended to lead stocks market changes, but this was the usual tea leaf reading and chart-staring.

    So I decided to compute the cross-correlation function of daily bitcoin percentage changes with SP500 daily percentage changes, from 2015 to today.

    Plot here: https://i.imgur.com/zNHSzZK.png

    The big white peak shows that bitcoin and stocks move in parallel on the same day (zero time lag).

    But the broad bump in the red boxcar-smoothed correlation function suggests that bitcoin prices changes today are correlated with SP500 changes over the upcoming week.

    However the SP500 seems to have little or no predictive power for Bitcoin, because there's no peak to the left of zero.


    NOTE: the cross-correlation function is defined as

    c(t) = ∫ 𝝙BTC(𝜏 )/BTC((𝜏 ) ⨉ 𝝙SP500(𝜏 +t)/SP500(𝜏 +t)d𝜏

    so that if BTC(𝜏 ) tends move the same as SP500(𝜏+t) for many 𝜏 then c(t) should have a peak at t.

    submitted by /u/VeryStableGenius
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    Why/how does Apple's stock split push Exxon out of the Dow Jones?

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 06:10 PM PDT

    I've read online that Apple's stock split is somehow the cause of Exxon's exit from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but I fail to see how this works. If it's merely a reflection of the 30 largest market cap stocks, then how does the split of Company A nudge out Company B?

    Even if the split increases the market cap of Apple (by a larger relative share price), it doesn't knock anyone out, unless #31 or below makes a large move.

    So what gives?

    submitted by /u/musteatbrainz
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    Palantir S-1

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 03:06 PM PDT

    SEC Filing

    2019 Financials ('000s):

    • Revenue: 742,555

    • Cost of Revenue: 242,373

    • Gross Profit: 500,182

    • Sales and Marketing: 450,120

    Other:

    • Gross margin of 67%
    • 250 customers
    • 3 (un-named) customers reperesent 28% of revenue
    • Net loss of $579M last year

    Funny Woke CEO:

    "The engineering elite of Silicon Valley may know more than most about building software. But they do not know more about how society should be organized or what justice requires. Our company was founded in Silicon Valley. But we seem to share fewer and fewer of the technology sector's values and commitments. From the start, we have repeatedly turned down opportunities to sell, collect, or mine data. Other technology companies, including some of the largest in the world, have built their entire businesses on doing just that. Software projects with our nation's defense and intelligence agencies, whose missions are to keep us safe, have become controversial, while companies built on advertising dollars are commonplace. For many consumer internet companies, our thoughts and inclinations, behaviors and browsing habits, are the product for sale. The slogans and marketing of many of the Valley's largest technology firms attempt to obscure this simple fact."

    submitted by /u/-GreyMilk-
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    When is ANT Financial Going IPO

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 04:02 PM PDT

    All I've seen from my attempts to look it up are sometime in October. Doesn't seem to have a fixed date as far as I can tell. Maybe I missed something though that one of us saw.

    Some more info on ANT Financial and why their IPO is such a huge deal:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/08/25/jack-mas-ant-group-files-for-hong-kong-shanghai-ipo.html

    submitted by /u/GilletteSmooth
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    U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly falls in August

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 08:32 AM PDT

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-confidence/u-s-consumer-confidence-unexpectedly-falls-in-august-idUSKBN25L1SI

    U.S. consumer confidence fell for second straight month in August as households worried about the economic outlook.

    The Conference Board said on Tuesday its consumer confidence index dropped to a reading of 84.8 this month from 91.7 in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index edging up to a reading of 93 in August.

    https://twitter.com/BittelJulien/status/1298269597863305221

    Largest disconnect between consumer confidence and equity valuations ever.

    Will this translate into anything or will Jay Powell manage to fix this too?

    Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/atavisticfuture
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    How can I track actively managed ETF trades over time?

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 06:56 PM PDT

    Is there a place to check the daily trades of stocks in actively managed ETFs? I have subscribed to the intraday trades for ARK funds but I am interested in comparing other actively managed ETFs as well. Another thing I'd like to do is be able to track how the ARK funds are changing over time. Are there any websites or databases that track this info?

    submitted by /u/123321123123
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    How did you learn to start option trading?

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 08:48 PM PDT

    For the options traders that are good at it... how did you learn and get a grasp of options trading. Was it a certain video you watched or classes? Or is it more or a get in there and learn as you go type of thing? I'm young and would just like to learn :)

    submitted by /u/zaddyzee
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    Do you like Etsy in light of FB Shops?

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 05:34 PM PDT

    I bought Etsy at the beginning of April. I added more after the FB Shops announcement made it dip, and now it's dipping again. At $125 I think Etsy is really attractive before the holiday season, but I wanted to see what others think.

    I was concerned before IG Shops' launch, but now that I've actually seen it I think it's very mediocre. It's nice if you already know the store you want to buy from, but poor if you're just browsing for a gift.

    Meanwhile, Etsy has much better ways of searching and filtering and has barely dipped in search interest since the start of quarantine. The average analyst PT is $153 and the street high is $172.

    submitted by /u/visvya
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    Morgan Stanley analysts are still bullish on Apple, raising its price target for the stock to $520 per share

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 09:56 AM PDT

    "Apple's stock skyrocketed to new all-time highs last week, gaining over 8% and now trading at just over $500 per share.

    Despite its high valuation, Morgan Stanley analysts are still bullish on Apple, raising its price target for the stock to $520 per share from $431—now the highest of any major Wall Street firm, according to FactSet.

    At 25x free cash flow, "Apple trades at a discount to both tech platforms and strong consumer brands," Morgan Stanley's note said.

    The analysts point out that Apple's free cash flow has grown more than 20% annually over the last four years, despite a slowdown in iPhone sales: "These results underscore the strength of Apple's broad ecosystem of products and services, a change from past years where Apple was more reliant on the success of the iPhone to drive growth.""

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/08/24/apple-stock-could-surge-even-higher-following-2-trillion-valuation-morgan-stanley-says/amp/

    Sweet let's goooo! Let's see if they can actually go higher.

    submitted by /u/sechumatheist
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    New to investing

    Posted: 26 Aug 2020 03:53 AM PDT

    I have recently just began to invest in some stocks through revolut, but I am wondering if I plan on holding these stocks for a long period of time while continuously adding to them, should I change to a different broker such as DEGIRO or Trading 212? If so can you give me recommendations on which one would be the best to use? I plan mainly on holding long term but I also want to begin to perhaps look at day trading later on. Any help is much appreciated cheers!

    submitted by /u/Mophead7
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    Cloudflare ($NET) or Crowdstrike ($CRWD)? Discussion inside (X-post from /r/stocks)

    Posted: 26 Aug 2020 03:41 AM PDT

    Cloudflare currently has a 12 billion dollar market cap on revenues of 99.7 million for the latest quarter.

    Meanwhile Crowdstrike has a 24.5 billion dollar market cap on revenues of 178 million for the latest quarter.

    They have seen similar growth of the stock price (130%) YTD.

    Cloudflare seems to me to have bigger potential, better tech and a more dedicated workforce, but have a hard time monetizing it, whereas Crowdstrike has cash reserves, steady income and incredible growth (Something like 89% YOY).

    I would like to buy both, but would like more input as to why I should prefer one over the other. I personally don't understand the tech very well, although it seems like Cloudflare is used quite widely.

    submitted by /u/Sneaky_Man
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    Etoro

    Posted: 26 Aug 2020 02:58 AM PDT

    Hi guys,

    a friend me mine have invested in etoro, an social media broker type. He copy traders and they basically invest for him. Now, he put in 10k, is that a wise move to put so much money in these sites? what investigation does one need to do before investing so much money in a broker website? Is exit scamming a thing?

    submitted by /u/xsizo
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    Rate my Super Growth Tech portfolio

    Posted: 26 Aug 2020 01:20 AM PDT

    Im thinking of creating a diversified tech portfolio, with high growth potential. Do you have any recommendations or comments?

    My idea of a portfolio:

    Splunk 5%
    Atlassian 10%
    Service Now 10%
    SalesForce 10%
    Paypal 5%
    Adobe 5%
    Facebook 5%
    Google 5%
    Microsoft 5%
    Amazon 5%
    Apple 5%
    Square 5%
    Nvidia 5%
    Cloud Wisdom Tree 20%

    submitted by /u/monkey7878
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    Priorities when investing

    Posted: 26 Aug 2020 01:10 AM PDT

    Hi,

    I just made my first broker account and I'm ready to start investing but there are so many directions in which I would wish to go that I cannot decide where to start. Right now it would make sense to go for the markets that are recovering from COVID, like air travel but that can change any day with a new surge of virus cases. EV, renewable energy, technological advancements seem to be safe investments for long term but it seems that there is no need to be hasty with these. How do you decide which investments are with higher priority and which can wait?

    Thanks for any advice on this.

    submitted by /u/BadabumBadabam
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    Nasdaq files with SEC for IPO alternative to raise funds

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 05:25 AM PDT

    Link to the article

    Exchange operator Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ.O) has filed with U.S. regulators to change its rules to enable companies that debut on the stock market through a direct listing to raise capital, as an alternative to an initial public offering.

    The move underscores a desire for an alternative route to the public markets to an IPO, for decades the avenue used by the likes of Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) and Apple Inc (AAPL.O), amid criticism by venture capital firms that investment banks underprice IPOs to help investors score big gains.

    Nasdaq made the proposed rule change in a filing submitted on Monday and which is set to be published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Tuesday.

    submitted by /u/canadian_air
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    Chinese goverment bonds

    Posted: 26 Aug 2020 12:52 AM PDT

    The yield on 10-year Chinese goverment bonds is circa 3%. Even those with maturities of 1 year have yields close to 2,5%.

    Is there any way for foreign investors to invest in such bonds? Or perhaps I can get exposure to them by investing in mutual funds or ETFs?

    submitted by /u/ChengSkwatalot
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    $DAL says flight demand still down ~75% y/y in last several weeks

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 09:43 AM PDT

    Goldman hosted a virtual investor meeting yesterday with $DAL* CEO Ed Bastian and CFO Paul Jacobson. The discussions focused on demand recovery and the company's ability to adapt costs to the uncertain demand outlook. Here are the key takeaways:

    1. Commenting on the current demand environment, management noted that this has held relatively steady at down ~75% year-over-year for the last four to six weeks, underlying which business demand remains down a more depressed -86% to -88% year-over-year. However, more recently the company has seen a very modest uptick in bookings, likely driven in part by the upcoming Labor Day holiday weekend. Given that bookings remain relatively close-in, the company does not currently have much clarity around fall demand, but expects to have a better view post-Labor Day.
    2. Due to ongoing demand uncertainty, the company remains committed to its flexible planning approach. Currently, Delta's planning guardrails are for summer 2021 capacity to be down 20% to 40% vs. 2019 levels. If the demand recovery by summer 2021 requires a capacity cut of greater than 40%, the company believes there is room to flex down further. However, if demand were to recover in a more V-shaped fashion than most airline managements and we believe is likely, it would be difficult for Delta to cut capacity less than 20% given previously announced headcount reductions and aircraft retirements.
    3. Delta anticipates that its unit costs ("CASM") coming out of the crisis will be lower than pre-COVID levels given various cost savings across the organization, including labor and the fleet. On the former, the company highlighted that 17,000 employees, or ~20% of its workforce, have already elected to participate in voluntary retirement/separation programs. The majority of participants in these programs were more senior and therefore at the higher end of the pay scale, which should result in lower labor costs even as Delta/the industry scale back up as demand recovers, further aided by productivity gains the company is planning to leverage. With respect to fleet-driven savings, management highlighted its previously announced aircraft retirement plans would accelerate its fleet simplification process and reduce expenses going forward tied to improved fuel burn, fewer training events, reduced spare parts inventory, etc.
    4. With Delta planning for both capacity and costs to be down ~50% year-over-year in the Dec Q, the company continues to anticipate that further cash burn improvement will largely hinge on demand. However, management commented that potential further fleet simplification actions could drive additional costs out of the business.
    5. Delta reiterated that it does not currently plan to draw on its loan allocation under the current CARES Act given the associated restrictions and as it has other options to raise additional liquidity if necessary. Looking forward, there have been discussions of a potential airline provision in a new proposed stimulus package (or "CARES 2"), which could include an extension of the Payroll Support Program (currently slated to end September 30th). Management noted that these discussions, which started out as a union-driven initiative, have bipartisan support in the US government and that a relatively larger CARES 2 package would increase the likelihood of the airlines provision being included.
    6. Management currently does not plan to back away from its long-standing strategy to strengthen its global network through partnerships with various international airlines. Instead, management believes cooperation between Delta and its global partners may actually accelerate as a result of the pandemic.
    submitted by /u/street-guru
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    [CNBC] Sales of newly built homes surge 36% in July

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 10:12 AM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/25/sales-of-newly-built-homes-surge-36percent-in-july.html

    Sales of newly built homes soared across the nation in July, as pent-up demand from the shutdown spring market, urban flight and a new desire for more work-at-home space fueled the growth.

    As measured by signed contracts, new home sales jumped 13.9% compared with June and were a remarkable 36.3% higher annually, according to the U.S. Census. June's reading was also revised higher. This is the strongest one-month pace since 2006.

    This is the third consecutive month of sizable sales gains, after sales dropped dramatically in March and April, due to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

    Strong demand sucked up the inventory of newly built homes for sale, which fell to a four-month supply from a 4.7-month supply in June.

    "The new home market has everything going for it right now including limited resale supply, fear of missing out, heightened dissatisfaction of our current living situation, low mortgage rates, months of saving money, and increased demand from key demographic cohorts," said Ali Wolf, chief economist at Meyers Research.

    Low supply and strong demand made it easier for builders to raise prices. The median price of a newly built home sold in July was $330,600, an increase of 7.2% compared with July 2019.

    "With larger homes, greener backyards, garages and home offices ranking at the top of home buyers' lists, new homes in the suburbs fit the bill and have been a welcome answer to a housing market parched for existing inventory," said George Ratiu, senior economist at realtor.com. "Builders have recognized the acute need for more construction and have moved to fill the gap. The main concern hovering over the market is whether the rising costs of building materials will drive prices even higher."

    Lumber prices are up more than 100% since mid-April, as mills shut down in the spring and did not expect to see such strong demand so quickly. There are also higher tariffs on imports of lumber.

    Buyers are taking advantage of low mortgage rates, which give them additional purchasing power but also tend to juice home prices. The average rate on the 30-year fixed set two record lows in July, when these sales contracts were signed.

    Regionally, sales gains were strongest in the Midwest and the South but dropped in the Northeast on a monthly basis. The Northeast tends to be the most volatile read, as it has the smallest concentration of new construction. Sales saw a modest monthly increase in the West but were up a strong 41% annually.

    submitted by /u/Spring_Far
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    Google enters the stop-loss health insurance market

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 03:38 PM PDT

    Verily, a life-science unit of Google, just created a new subsidiary called Coefficient Insurance, which will leverage Google's core technologies (big data, artificial intelligent, cloud infrastructure, etc ...) to offer stop-loss insurance to employers. So what is stop-loss insurance? Basically it protects employers from unexpected and large employee healthcare costs - obviously this is inspired by the current ongoing pandemic. This is quite attractive for self-funded employers, who often don't have the money reserved to deal with unexpected health crisis.

    I'm sure covid-19 won't be the last pandemic that the world will face (in fact, Bill Gates has warned us for years about this). So the incentive to protect business from current and future health crisis will only get bigger. And with the immense Google tech backing it, Coefficient Insurance can easily tailor its insurance policy to meet the need/risk of each employer.

    I believe this is the right move for Google given the current circumstance and the rising hype about online data-driven insurance-related business (ie, LMND and DCT). So I expect more upside to Google stock in the near future.

    https://getcoefficient.com/announcing-coefficient-a-verily-subsidiary-focused-on-employer-stop-loss-and-backed-by-swiss-re-corporate-solutions/

    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/09/831174885/bill-gates-who-has-warned-about-pandemics-for-years-on-the-response-so-far

    submitted by /u/learner4f
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    BigCommerce Teams Up with Facebook to Unlock Checkout on Instagram Feature for US Merchants

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 08:23 AM PDT

    BigCommerce merchants now have the ability to enable customer checkout directly within Instagram

    BigCommerce (Nasdaq: BIGC), a leading open SaaS ecommerce platform for fast-growing and established brands, today announced the availability of checkout on Instagram for eligible US merchants. BigCommerce merchants can be among the first to adopt the new feature, which provides shoppers an intuitive, seamless and secure way to purchase products they discover on Instagram in a few clicks, without leaving the app.

    Leveraging BigCommerce's native integration with Facebook Commerce Manager, merchants can easily connect their ecommerce storefront's catalog to Instagram and give customers the ability to buy from their favorite brands directly on Instagram—rather than navigating to a brand's website to make a purchase—and pay using PayPal, Visa, Mastercard, American Express or Discover. After placing an order, customers can also use the Instagram app to view their order status, estimated delivery date and tracking number, as well as cancel orders, initiate returns or request additional support.

    "Creating a streamlined checkout experience is paramount for merchants looking to social commerce to drive revenue growth. The rollout of checkout on Instagram is another significant step in Instagram's evolution toward becoming an essential commerce channel for customer-focused brands," said Brent Bellm, chief executive officer at BigCommerce. "BigCommerce is proud to be one of a select group of partners to offer their customers access to this innovative new feature at launch."

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bigcommerce-teams-facebook-unlock-checkout-150500474.html

    submitted by /u/fairytailzz
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    Business and Investing are the gifts that keep on giving

    Posted: 25 Aug 2020 10:31 AM PDT

    The more I learn about investing the more in love I fall with it. I revere Warren Buffett. I see corporate executives as individuals who work for me and my money. Reading 10Qs and 10Ks are like glimpses into everything a company does, summarized for our convenience.

    So many people lambast CEOs, businesses, the stock market, but once you take effort to research it and learn why and how things work, it's one of the most beautiful things in the world. I really understand why so many billionaires and true businessmen say that; they really believe it.

    Warren Buffett owns DQ and huge stakes in AMEX; DQ doesn't accept AMEX. Warren Buffett owns massive stakes in AAPL, he doesn't even use an iPhone. People strive to get an AMEX card or apple products, he intuitively realizes this. It's just so amazing.

    I really have nothing constructive to add to any conversation, just that I love investing and have fallen in love with business and capitalism. If you do research, work, and try to understand all that capitalism has to offer, you can make your money work for you. It's beautiful.

    submitted by /u/Musitall
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