Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2 trillion market cap
- Intel Initiates $10 Billion Accelerated Share Repurchase Agreements | Intel Newsroom
- Ask a Banker, Get an Answer - Open Q&A
- Stock market at record forcing everyone to become believer, forcing strategists to raise S&P 500's price targets
- Airbnb has filed confidential IPO paperwork
- Key dates for the Tesla and Apple split. Any dates to avoid trading on?
- The Roaring 2020s
- What do you think will happen to bank stocks if they decide that it's better to extend the length of loans instead of collecting lump sums for missed payments?
- Buy low, sell high
- Why are sustainable stocks outperforming markets
- JPM DD
- BJ’s Earnings
- US Stocks finish the day in red. Neither S&P 500 or Nasdaq reached new record highs.
- Countries with significant "Technology" exposure in their indice
- Is Fastly a good stock to buy right now?
- Question on HCAC merger with Canoo
- Do investors in BRK.A/B pay capital gains tax twice?
- FDA rejects approval Filgotinib, GLPG slumps 25%
- Macro Investing: P/GDP or P/M (liquidity)? You decide ��
- Valaris files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection
- In another shocker, FDA rejects BioMarin’s ($ BMRN) hemophilia A gene therapy, demanding more data on durability
- Inflation-adjusted stock valuations in 2020
- Do you rely on reviews of the company's products or work culture when evaluating growth companies?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 19 Aug 2020 05:12 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2 trillion market cap Posted: 19 Aug 2020 07:54 AM PDT
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| Intel Initiates $10 Billion Accelerated Share Repurchase Agreements | Intel Newsroom Posted: 19 Aug 2020 07:54 PM PDT https://newsroom.intel.com/news-releases/august-2020-intel-financial/ SANTA CLARA, Calif., Aug. 19, 2020 – Intel Corporation today announced it is entering into accelerated share repurchase (ASR) agreements to repurchase an aggregate of $10 billion of Intel's common stock. Following completion of these agreements, Intel will have repurchased a total of approximately $17.6 billion in shares as part of the planned $20 billion share repurchases announced in October 2019. [link] [comments]  |
| Ask a Banker, Get an Answer - Open Q&A Posted: 20 Aug 2020 01:25 AM PDT My internet's a bit slow right now, so it's difficult to be productive. All my friends are also sleeping, leaving me with nothing to do but browse the internet. As a result, I'm going to hold an open Q&A for the next few hours. I currently do corporate finance at a Series D startup and used to work on the risk team of a large investment consultancy, primarily on portfolios in the multi-billion dollar range. Anyways, feel free to ask away. I'll answer most questions you guys send my way. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 19 Aug 2020 05:15 AM PDT From professional investors to market handicappers, it's becoming next to impossible to stay bearish in the face of the rally in equities. Fund managers who went to cash when the pandemic broke out have been forced back in to stocks, pushing measures of positioning toward historical highs. Wall Street forecasters, some of whom threw up their hands in surrender four months ago, are pushing up targets each day. Even Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which once warned that bad loans and falling dividends could drive a second leg of the bear market, now sees another 6% of upside in the S&P 500. While testament to the career pressure missing a $12 trillion rally creates, the unanimity has become one of the biggest risk factors in markets right now, with positions getting crowded as everyone is forced to buy. A custom gauge of sentiment compiled by Citigroup Inc. showed "euphoria" just hit the highest level since the dot-com era. "While a new all-time closing high would certainly be encouraging, it's not always the pedal to the metal trade that it would seem," said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at Bay Crest Partners. "There is lot of optimism out there, which often makes breakouts harder to sustain." Fear of missing out gave birth to the rally and now it's downright rampant after stocks staged a powerful rebound from the fastest bear market ever. Up more than 50% in less six months, the S&P 500 is poised for the quickest recovery on record. The index rose to as high as 3,395.06 Tuesday, surpassing its prior intraday record reached in February, before trading little changed on the day. Money managers are embracing the equity rally after cutting their exposure to historically low levels during the downdraft, according to a survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers. The group's exposure index, tracking investment advisers from 200 firms overseeing more than $30 billion, has risen to a two-year high. Even the most bearish respondents are 50% long equities, something not seen since late 2017. "Takeaways from discussions with institutional investors indicate significant comfort with central banks' willingness to keep rates low for an extended period," Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup, wrote in a note last week. "This is a marked shift from commentary heard a month or two ago and reflects both complacent/ebullient investor sentiment and a sense of rationalization for the relentless bull run." Wall Street strategists, who rushed to cut price targets for the S&P 500 during the March selloff, are now trying to catch up with a rally that has defied most of their predictions. More than half of the strategists tracked by Bloomberg have raised their projections since June, when their projections were way below the market. The latest skeptic giving in is Goldman's David Kostin, who boosted his 2020 target by 20% to 3,600, the most bullish among peers. The call ended his months of skepticism over the market's resilience, including a warning in May that the S&P 500 would probably drop to 2,400 over the next three months. Like the others, Kostin's bullish case is centered around near record-low interest rates. "Share prices reflect not just the expected future stream of earnings but also the rate at which the profits are discounted to present value," Kostin wrote in a note. "A plunging risk-free rate partially explains why equities have performed so well despite downward revisions to expected earnings." As stocks keep rising and turbulence subsides, demand from computer-driven investors who buy and sell stocks on momentum or volatility signals, is also returning. At Deutsche Bank AG, strategists including Binky Chadha aggregated positioning among stock pickers and quant funds, and found their overall exposure has increased to a one-year high. Fund positioning tends to show an inverse relationship with future market returns, Deutsche Bank study shows. That is, the more bullish fund managers are, the poorer the market performs in coming coming months. While the current reading still signals positive market returns, with gains averaging 1% over the next month, it also points to one third of chances to go negative. So much faith is put in the Federal Reserve that investors are willing to pay up for earnings that's estimated to drop 20% this year. At 26 times forecast profits, the S&P 500 was traded at the most expensive level in two decades. To Peter Cecchini, founder of AlphaOmega Advisors LLC, all the index's gains above 3,000 are unjustified. "The equity markets are now like an old elevator way over capacity," said Cecchini. "It's just a matter of time before the cable snaps and its passengers end up in the basement. That's where the Fed will be waiting." [link] [comments]  |
| Airbnb has filed confidential IPO paperwork Posted: 19 Aug 2020 01:48 PM PDT https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/19/airbnb-has-filed-confidential-ipo-paperwork.html
Article is pretty light on information, but I'm really looking forward to seeing how this one goes. There's going to be a lot of hype. [link] [comments]  |
| Key dates for the Tesla and Apple split. Any dates to avoid trading on? Posted: 20 Aug 2020 02:51 AM PDT Tesla 5-for-one - Source
Apple 4-for-one - Source
Question: [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 19 Aug 2020 08:07 AM PDT Not my write up, but I heard about this blog post on a podcast and wanted to share it here. Another Roaring Twenties May Be Ahead We seem to be living in unprecedented times. We always seem to be living in unprecedented times, according to conventional wisdom, mostly because we don't spend enough time studying history. There's certainly a precedent for our current times in the past, one that was truly unprecedented back then. World War I was followed by the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, which infected an estimated 500 million people and killed as many as 50 million. Given that the world population was 1.8 billion back then, that implied a 28% infection rate and nearly a 3% death rate. Both stats are currently significantly lower for the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, the global population is 7.5 billion. There have been 20 million cases and 735,000 deaths worldwide as of yesterday. The good news is that the bad news during the previous precedent was followed by the Roaring Twenties. So far, the 2020s has started with the pandemic, but there are plenty of years left for the prosperous 1920s to become a precedent for the current decade. If so, the driver of the coming boom will be technology-enhanced productivity, as it was during the 1920s. Before we go there, let's go back to the late 1700s and recall the grim forecasts of Thomas Malthus. He was the first economist, and he was a pessimist. In other words, he was the first Malthusian. During the late 1700s, he predicted that populations would grow faster than food production; the result would be a regular cycle of starvation and death. He was dead wrong. Agriculture was among the industries that benefited the most from the Industrial Revolution of the 1800s. Technological progress always confounds the pessimists by solving scarce-resource problems. It also fuels productivity and prosperity, as it did in the 1920s and could do again in the 2020s. Consider the following: (1) Technology during the 1920s. In 1920, 51% of the US population lived in cities, up from 23% in 1870. This remarkable urbanization was enabled by innovations in electricity and plumbing. Electric grids provided clean, bright light without emitting smoke. Urban water networks supplied clean water, and sewer systems removed waste without the pungent odors of chamber pots and outhouses. Telephones allowed people to converse with distant friends. Henry Ford's Model T, built between 1908 and 1927, was the first car invented and helped people to live an easier life by making transportation easier and faster. In 1900, just 8,000 motorcars were registered in the US, but there were 9 million in 1920 and 23 million in 1929. Streetcars and subways, unheard of in 1870, were in all the major cities by 1920. Intercity trains were becoming steadily faster and more reliable. Detroit Police Officer William Potts came up with the idea of traffic lights, taking inspiration from railroad traffic signals. General Electric bought the idea for $40,000, and traffic lights soon were everywhere. Ford's assembly line innovation boosted productivity in many manufacturing industries, including the processed food industry. National food brands—including Heinz, Campbell's, Quaker Oats, Jell-O, and Coca-Cola—began to fill cupboards. Refrigerated railroad cars and in-home iceboxes meant that vegetables were available in winter. Restaurants began to proliferate early in the 20th century. When people out and about in their Model Ts got hungry, their options were few, but the first fast-food chain opened its doors in 1919, an A&W (better known today for its root beer). White Castle hamburger stands opened in 1921, and the first Howard Johnson's restaurant in 1925. Increasingly, anything not available in a local store could be obtained by a mail-order catalog. The Montgomery Ward catalog was first issued in 1872, the Sears catalog in 1894. By 1900, Sears was fulfilling 100,000 orders a day, and its catalog featured fur coats, furnaces, furniture, and much more—including homes. Sears sold more than 70,000 mail-order homes between 1908 and 1940. The catalog business was helped along by Parcel Post, which arrived in 1913. Penicillin is considered one of the most important inventions to come out of the 1920s. It was created by Sir Alexander Fleming, Professor of Bacteriology at St. Mary's Hospital in London, after studying bacteria in 1928. The antibiotic kills or prevents the growth of bacteria. The bulldozer—used today in all kinds of construction the world over—was invented in 1923 by James Cummings and J. Earl McLeod, originally to dig canals. Another popular invention found in almost every home by the mid-1900s was the radio. Listening to the radio became a national pastime, and many families gathered in their living rooms to listen to sports news, concerts, sermons, and "Red Menace" news. The phonograph—invented in 1877 and widely used by the 1920s—offered another entertainment option: listening to professional-quality music at home, unheard-of in earlier generations. Outside the home, going to motion picture shows—which were silent until 1927—was a very affordable and popular pastime. (2) Technology during the 2020s. Today's doomsters could be confounded by biotechnological innovations that deliver not only a vaccine for COVID-19 but for all coronaviruses. Scientists are investigating a dizzying array of approaches to fight COVID-19. Hopefully, beyond finding a cure or a vaccine, one of beneficial outcomes of all this research will be that scientists learn many more ways to combat illnesses in general and viruses in particular. Typically, it takes roughly a decade for a new vaccine to go through the various stages of development and testing. However, the urgency of the pandemic has mobilized global medical resources as rarely seen in human history. Billions of dollars, provided by both the public and the private sectors, are funding the global campaign to develop tests, vaccines, and cures for the virus. My colleague Jackie Doherty and I have been writing about disruptive technologies for some time, usually in our Thursday commentaries. (See our archive of Disruptive Technologies Briefings) The awesome range of futuristic "BRAIN" technological innovations includes biotechnology, robotics and automation, artificial intelligence, and nanotechnology. There are also significant innovations underway in 5G for cellular networks, 3-D manufacturing, electric vehicles, battery storage, blockchain, and quantum and edge computing. As I wrote in my 2018 book Predicting the Markets: "Economics is about using technology to increase everyone's standard of living. Technological innovations are driven by the profits that can be earned by solving the problems posed by scarce resources. Free markets provide the profit incentives to motivate innovators to solve this problem. As they do so, consumer prices tend to fall, driven by their innovations. The market distributes the resulting benefits to all consumers. From my perspective, economics is about creating and spreading abundance, not about distributing scarcity." Now consider the follow stats on technology capital spending in the US: High-tech spending on IT equipment, software, and R&D rose to a record $1.32 trillion (saar) during Q2-2020 (Fig. 1). It jumped to a record 50.1% of total capital spending in nominal GDP during the quarter (Fig. 2). Equipment and software accounted for 31.1%, while R&D accounted for 19.1% of capital spending in nominal GDP (Fig. 3). The 1920s ended with a stock market meltup followed by a meltdown. The 2020s may already be seeing a meltup, begun on March 23. We live in interesting, though not unprecedented, times. The Roaring 1920s could be a precedent for the Roaring 2020s. As Mark Twain observed: "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 19 Aug 2020 05:37 PM PDT So this foreclosure protection is resulting in alot of speculative cash returns in the form of lump payments. When the protection ends, people won't suddenly have the money for all the missed payments. Surely instead of mass foreclosures, they will extend the length of loans for the number of missed payments. (Hopefully) Will bank stocks be negatively impacted by the reduced short term profits from collecting lump sums? What are the ramifications of this? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 19 Aug 2020 05:03 PM PDT Hi. I have been DCAing religiously into stocks and index ETFs for the past few years. I bought aggressively in the March crash. In fact, I was a little early and more or less went all in around 2650. The market comeback has been unbelievable since. However, now I feel it is time to sell and cash out on the gains. I think the market has gotten ahead of itself. I like Apple a lot, but honestly I don't feel another trillion in market cap is justified given the circumstances. I am planning to sell a considerable portion of my portfolio and hold some cash. I think the economic reality is going to catch up soon and hopefully, present more attractive opportunities for buying. Anyone else thinking the same? [link] [comments]  |
| Why are sustainable stocks outperforming markets Posted: 20 Aug 2020 04:45 AM PDT
Food for thought: https://www.finance-monthly.com/2020/06/why-are-sustainable-stocks-outperforming-markets/ [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 20 Aug 2020 04:41 AM PDT After following SLV for many months and watching the price rise and rise it finally hit a point of resistance that it can't seem to break. Silver historically follows a ratio of 40:1 with gold. I wondered why? Enter JPM and their metal desk. They have been shorting silver to protect their multimillion ounce horde of the precious metal AND earn premium. This earnings report should blow JPM out of the water and into the stars. I suspect that between their moves in precious metals and their new lending programs they will double in value before the EOY. Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 19 Aug 2020 06:47 PM PDT With BJ's Earnings coming up I was wondering what other people in this sub were doing. Last quarter they obliterated earnings as more people shopped online through BJ's amid the wisest of coronavirus. I think the earnings tomorrow could also be a beat but I was wondering what other people were thinking. [link] [comments]  |
| US Stocks finish the day in red. Neither S&P 500 or Nasdaq reached new record highs. Posted: 19 Aug 2020 01:44 PM PDT https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/stock-market-news-081920/index.html
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| Countries with significant "Technology" exposure in their indice Posted: 19 Aug 2020 09:14 PM PDT Given that technology is the future, would it make sense to focus on countries that are leaders in technology or high tech manufacturing? Most other country indices are made up of the old economy of financials and industrial. Instead of investing in "Total World", how about the S&P 500 + selected countries with significant Technology exposure? Netherlands (28.90%) https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239671/ishares-msci-netherlands-etf Compared to the rest of the rest of Europe, their indices do not have as much exposure to technology. (Sweden @ 11.39%, Germany @ 15.76%) Taiwan - 60.86% (27% of its index is TSMC) https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239686/ishares-msci-taiwan-etf [link] [comments]  |
| Is Fastly a good stock to buy right now? Posted: 20 Aug 2020 03:09 AM PDT Fastly's share price had been one of the standout performers this year - but since the start of August. it has plummeted around 30% since the start of August. Triggering the sell-off is Trump's threat to ban the edge-computing provider's single biggest customer, TikTok, from operating in the US. Given how far Fastly's stock has fallen, is it now a bargain or just dead weight? [link] [comments]  |
| Question on HCAC merger with Canoo Posted: 20 Aug 2020 02:32 AM PDT HCAC have just announced a formal merger with Canoo, to be listed on the NASDAQ, does this mean my shares of HCAC will be automatically converted into shares of Canoo, assuming I don't opt for their tender offer of $10.28? Or have I got it the wrong round and I should accept the tender offer in exchanged for Canoo shares? [link] [comments]  |
| Do investors in BRK.A/B pay capital gains tax twice? Posted: 19 Aug 2020 08:13 PM PDT Example: - Company X grows from $100/share to $300/share over some number of years - There is a simplified version of Berkshire Hathaway that is just a holding company investing everything in company X with a share price equal to the share price of company X - Your personal capital gains tax rate is 15% - Corporate capital gains tax rate is 20% Option #1: You buy one share of X for $100 and sell it for $300. You end up with $300 - ($200 * 0.15) = $270 Option #2: You buy one share of the holding company for $100 and the holding company gets X for $100. Later the holding company sells X for $300 and the holding company is now worth $300 - ($200 * 0.2) = $260. If you now sell your share of the holding company, you end up with $260 - ($160 * 0.15) = $236 Am I misunderstanding something or is this a disadvantage for Berkshire Hathaway (and to a some extent all holding companies, ETFs, and mutual funds)? This can be reduced some by funds harvesting losses, but ideally funds will have a lot more gains than losses. This can also be minimized by funds minimizing selling, but over long enough timelines almost all funds will have to / want to sell some positions eventually. It sounds like ETFs and mutual funds can avoid this some with in kind trades and in retirement accounts by passing the capital gains onto the individuals, which sounds like another disadvantage to companies like Berkshire Hathaway. TLDR: Do investors of holding companies, ETFs, and mutual funds end up paying more in capital gains taxes than they would have by individually owning the same stocks (and buying/selling at the same time as the fund)? [link] [comments]  |
| FDA rejects approval Filgotinib, GLPG slumps 25% Posted: 19 Aug 2020 01:06 PM PDT 2019 was a beautiful year for Dutch biotech company Galapagos. They partnered up with Gilead, who took a stake of 30% in the company, in exchange for €140 per share for a total of €1.1 bln. They also bought the rights to sell their medicines in the US for €4 bln. Last year, the stock price increased by 122% due to the fresh partnership and the potential of a handful of medicines, with the most prominent one being Filgotinib, which treats rheumatism. A lot of fantasy was priced in, and that's what gets selled first in a run to cash as seen in March. The stock went down from €250 to €135. I went up a bit in the following months, but when the news came out that one of their other drugs, colitis, wasn't as effective as hoped for in a small dosage, the stock went down a bit again. The main point of hope for many GLPG investors was the approval of Filgotinib in the USA, Europe and Japan this year. Consensus was that the FDA would approve the drug, because of the detailed data provided by both Gilead en GLPG. Today, the FDA announced that it won't approve Filgotinib just yet. They've requested more data in order to approve it, which will slow down the process by probably another year and a half. I remain optimistic about the stock for a couple of reasons. First off, the company has a cash position of €5.6 bln and a cash burn of only €500 mln (setback included). This leaves the company plenty of cash to invest with. They won't need to turn to financial markets to raise capital to survive, which is a pleasing fact. The management is looking into buying other players whose products are far along in the pipeline, so that they'll generate income in a couple of years from now. However, management is very careful with the companies they're buying and won't rush into decisions. CEO Van de Stolpe is a very capable leader and will weigh any acquistions against their cash position, and their synergy with Gilead. All ingredients are present to make GLPG a big European player in the field. This year alone, 3 other prominent drugs which are currently in phase 2 will be producing clinical results. CEO just gave a radio interview, stating that that the disapproval came as a big surprise, partially because the European FDA had already recommended it to be approved. They'll miss 1.5 years of revenue, because their patent ends in 2034. He also says the stock price won't recover quickly, but the coming results of 2nd phase test results could act as a catalyst. A big part of the stock price was the commercial succes of Filgotinib. Because this will be delayed the market reacts accordingly. However, the stock is still full of potential, but it will just take some more time now. Time for me to add to my position. I hope I did not forget anything and please correct me where I'm wrong because I'm not a pharmaceutical specialist. Just looking on shedding some light on the situation. [link] [comments]  |
| Macro Investing: P/GDP or P/M (liquidity)? You decide �� Posted: 19 Aug 2020 05:17 PM PDT Hey everyone! So Ive been thinking about how everyone loves to market time with the Oracle of Omahas (whos dat) P/GDP as analogous to your typical P/E for equities. But is this REALLY the best measurement? Ive postulated before that liquidity is what drives modern economies, and Ive seen some interesting research that shows risk assets correlate extensively with levels of global liquidity (considered here to be high powered money 💰 💵). Would a more prescient metric be a countrys market price of risk assets / high powered money ? You decide r-investing! [link] [comments]  |
| Valaris files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Posted: 19 Aug 2020 07:11 PM PDT Full disclosure: Personally short this company via puts (not that it matters much at this point). So after having the stock halted for two days on pending news Valaris finally bit the bullet and filed for bankruptcy today. For those who follow the offshore drilling industry this is the second recent filing in the sector with Noble Corp filing a few weeks ago and the third this year with Diamond Offshore filing earlier this year. The company did manage to get a RSA together with around 50% of the bond holders and is targeting a 10.5 month bankruptcy period here, but still won't come out of things too strong given the large amount of unproductive assets they have. Existing equity will receive 0.01% of the new company and is effectively wiped out but will also get warrants with a 7 year expiration date and exercise price at a level of where all creditors would be fully recovered, so if you're thinking of venturing into the OTC market that's basically what you're buying at this point. One of the big problems that has literally brought this entire industry down is that rig attrition just has not been aggressive enough and that trend looks like it'll continue with this filing. The offshore drilling sector ordered a ton of UDW rigs, particularly drillships that use to be making 500k+/day in rates but are now down to levels around 175k or lower. Many of these ships were built and delivered within the last 10-15 years and with productive lifespans of over 30 years no one has wanted to scrap them or sell them off for too cheap leading to a huge overhang in supply that just hasn't rectified itself. A big problem is even after these bankruptcies no one is really wiling to get rid of these ships as it's always easier to hope things turn around in another year or two, even for creditors who wouldn't be able to sell the boats for nearly what they're carried at on the balance sheet. As a result the UDW market remains oversupplied with rigs without much underlying demand given the shift towards unconventional shale production where upfront capital costs and lead time are a lot lower and more responsive to market conditions than longer lived UDW projects. A big reason this particularly bankruptcy is somewhat significant is because Valaris itself was partially the result of the merger of two of the largest shallow water drillers too Ensco PLC and Rowan companies. Had Ensco PLC not previously overpaid for Atwood they would have ended up with one of the more diversified and contracted fleets in the market, but that prior aggressive merger by Ensco along with multiple years of tender offers for debt at near face value left the company particularly vulnerable this year. An accident that damaged a blowout preventer also terminated one of their more lucrative drillship contracts which pretty much sealed their fate. The company was not in a strong or even decent financial position heading into 2020 and ended up being OCF negative for all of 2019 despite a much stronger oil market. Still the company rallied hard into the new year hitting 7.75/share in early January. What followed is the classic unwinding of a value trap. H1 saw massive writedowns due to OPEC+ butting heads and COVID killing demand with $3.6B in book value disappearing from the balance sheet through impairment charges. Of course it was never tangibly there to begin and relied heavily on the company's estimates of the marketability of their own rigs going forward. However I think it does illustrate just how completely unreliable some of the numbers of the balance sheet can be if you don't understand the dynamics at play within an industry. The last few players standing are probably going to get hit with restructurings themselves going forward here. SDRL already stated they might end up seeking another chapter 11 filing if their financial doesn't improve, after having previously doing so in a terriblely structured one back in 2017 which is a big part of why conditions in the offshore sector have remained so terrible, Seadrill was one of the worst positioned companies financially and did a minimal amount of actually reduce debt or right size their sizable fleet. Transocean is more or less the last man standing but as a pure UDW play has seen it's ability to actually generate sufficient cash flows greatly diminish and is generally hamstrung by still having significant debt obligations in an environment where a lot of its competitors won't. This all is kind of illustrative of a worst case scenario for an industry. It isn't always last man standing 'wins' sometimes it's just a bunch of zombie companies where everyone throwing money in loses because no one is really willing to bite the bullet. I had made pretty good money on Noble Corp and Ensco back around 2014-2015 myself by buying equity and debt but there's not much point in touching anything now as the balance sheets are far too week and the contract backlog is nearly non-existent. As crazy as the valuation for companies like Tesla is, there still remains better companies to take short positions on. Be forewarned though that borrowing costs exceed the upside here and when market caps get low enough stupid rumors can tack on 100%+ plus in a day or two, or as was the case with Valaris here the company can halt the stock for longer than you expect that make unwinding a position difficult on top of lower volumes and the usual move to the OTC market. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 19 Aug 2020 06:08 AM PDT Biotech volatility strikes again! Really disappointing news for the Gene-Therapy & Haemophilia fields. Has the FDA now set a precedent for safety/efficacy reporting requirements going forward? It seems crazy that the FDA would announce this requirement in the CRL, after not raising the issue beforehand. Thoughts? See article below on the news: __________________________________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________________________________ It turns out that BioMarin's rivals aren't the only ones with doubts about the durability of BioMarin's hemophilia A gene therapy. Regulators at the FDA have some problems with it as well. In the second major CRL inside of 24 hours, the FDA has slapped down BioMarin's application for valoctocogene roxaparvovec (valrox) — their top program widely tapped as a cinch at the agency. According to the biotech, they were completely blindsided by a demand to see 2 years of data from their ongoing Phase III trial, rather than the latest update from BioMarin's investigators. BioMarin's stock $BMRN plunged 20% on the news, roughly $4 billion of market cap. The move triggers a major delay for a gene therapy that has been in the spotlight for the dwindling effect seen on Factor VIII as patients were tracked following treatment. It offers Sangamo and Pfizer a big opportunity to catch up, with Spark/Roche also in the race to get the first approval, though it also likely raises the bar on everyone in the race by creating a regulatory precedent. Shares of Sangamo (SGMO), meanwhile, surged 9% on BioMarin's setback. From their statement: The Agency first informed the Company of this recommendation in the CRL having not raised this at any time during development or review. The Agency recommended that the Company complete the Phase 3 Study and submit two-year follow-up safety and efficacy data on all study participants. FDA concluded that the differences between Study 270-201 (Phase 1/2) and the Phase 3 study limited its ability to rely on the Phase 1/2 study to support durability of effect. The Phase 3 study was fully enrolled in November 2019, and the last patient will complete two years of follow up in November 2021. Just as Gilead CEO Dan O'Day has to make a major adjustment in the wake of the filgotinib rejection, BioMarin CEO Jean-Jacques Bienaimé — who had the task of voicing his "disappointment" today — has lots to think over today. The BioMarin execs have remained supremely confident that they had spelled out ample durability at the time they filed for an approval, making the argument that even if some patients stop responding eventually, they'll have had a substantial benefit worth the $2 million to $3 million blockbuster price that the biotech had in mind. BioMarin CSO Henry Fuchs took a slap at the competition just a few days ago,noting: "I think Roctavian is generation one gene therapies. Spark and Sangamo are generation .6 and .3, maybe even a higher degree of discounts because they're so far behind. I'm a little hard-pressed to figure out how they're going to do clinical trials. You know, half of the people who are eligible for Roctavian are going to be ineligible for a Sangamo trial and there are going to be some fraction that are also ineligible for a Spark trial because the capsids, they overlap in that direction." Their whole argument for valrox, though, has been flattened in a moment. Given this new timeline, BioMarin can't get an approval ahead of 2022, two years hence. And that also threatens to extend treatment to the point where patients stop responding and start bleeding again, which would cripple commercialization prospects. All in all, it's an epic disaster for the biotech. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________________________________ [link] [comments]  |
| Inflation-adjusted stock valuations in 2020 Posted: 19 Aug 2020 05:39 AM PDT Noob question here regarding fiat valuations vs. stock valuations. So of course the big news yesterday is the S&P hitting new highs in terms of nominal value. However, I've also been watching the DXY and it's down some 7-8% since the ATH we hit in February. So yes we hit ATH, but when you adjust for the decrease in USD currency, doesn't that mean we are still technically below the highs? If you sold everything in February you would be able to buy more with dollars than you can if you sold everything now, even though the nominal price is the same. [link] [comments]  |
| Do you rely on reviews of the company's products or work culture when evaluating growth companies? Posted: 19 Aug 2020 04:13 AM PDT If job portals have negative reviews about the company, do you take them as a positive since management is slave driving to grow their company at the expense of their employees happiness? What about reviews about their products? Only people that have bad experiences with products will write negative reviews especially for B2B or commercial products. https://www.cardpaymentoptions.com/credit-card-processors/square-review/ Even Square is full of negative reviews because of negative bias. No merchant is going to say "I loOoVeEe Square" unless they are a shareholder or had a extremely bad experience with their previous provider. [link] [comments]  |
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