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    Wednesday, August 12, 2020

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 12 Aug 2020 05:12 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Tesla just announced a 5-for-1 split

    Posted: 11 Aug 2020 02:07 PM PDT

    Tesla, Inc. ("Tesla") announced today that the Board of Directors has approved and declared a five-for-one split of Tesla's common stock in the form of a stock dividend to make stock ownership more accessible to employees and investors. Each stockholder of record on August 21, 2020 will receive a dividend of four additional shares of common stock for each then-held share, to be distributed after close of trading on August 28, 2020. Trading will begin on a stock split-adjusted basis on August 31, 2020.

    submitted by /u/macelote
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    Today was a weird day. Stocks, bonds, gold, everything fell.

    Posted: 11 Aug 2020 03:15 PM PDT

    I always thought these assets move with an inverse relationship to each other, so it's kind of strange seeing all of them fall at once. It doesn't feel like a panic sell either like what happened during March. Anyone with more experience knows what typically happens next after these kinds of days? Liquidity crunch => crash, or will it just pass over?

    submitted by /u/adayofjoy
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    We do not live in a political and institutional vacuum, you should keep that in mind

    Posted: 11 Aug 2020 05:28 AM PDT

    Every now and then, people on here think they have some "brilliant" thought about the markets. Often it's something they believe no one else has thought of, and will make them money. And it goes both ways, bulls see a coming surge. Bears have analyzed the markets and "know" they're in for a large dip. I claim that whoever in here believes he or she timed the markets, is fooled by randomness.

    Either way, let's talk about one common trait among a lot of bearish posts in here...

    ... They seem to imply we live in a proverbial vacuum. Every time the world doesn't end, I see posts and comments along the lines "of only the Fed hadn't X" or "if only the lawmakers hadn't Y". Well, ok, interesting theories, but we live in a developed world. Governments will always do X and Y, and institutions are always ready for Y. And if they're not, the legislative bodies are ready to step in to fix whatever systematic faults need to be addressed. The whole market economy is just a set of laws and regulations, and those laws and regulations are being adjusted and amended all the time. Therefor, any analysis made on the assumption that the world will just stay passive when there's a risk of it burning, is sloppy and irrelevant.

    "The Congress can't just...", yes they can. "The Fed can't keep...", yes they can. Same goes for the EU. Don't underestimate the political will of the European Union member states. "They can't save Italy should their bond yields skyrocket...", yes they can and they will.

    Tl;dr: Whatever laws and interventions needed to stabilize the economy and induce growth, will be set in place. Always. And the means of production in mature economies will manage.

    submitted by /u/MrOaiki
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    MicroStrategy, a Nasdaq-listed software firm worth $1.2 billion, has bought $250 million in bitcoin as a "reasonable hedge against inflation".

    Posted: 11 Aug 2020 05:53 AM PDT

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200811005331/en/MicroStrategy-Adopts-Bitcoin-Primary-Treasury-Reserve-Asset

    "Our investment in Bitcoin is part of our new capital allocation strategy, which seeks to maximize long-term value for our shareholders," said Michael J. Saylor, CEO, MicroStrategy Incorporated. "This investment reflects our belief that Bitcoin, as the world's most widely-adopted cryptocurrency, is a dependable store of value and an attractive investment asset with more long-term appreciation potential than holding cash. Since its inception over a decade ago, Bitcoin has emerged as a significant addition to the global financial system, with characteristics that are useful to both individuals and institutions. MicroStrategy has recognized Bitcoin as a legitimate investment asset that can be superior to cash and accordingly has made Bitcoin the principal holding in its treasury reserve strategy.

    Mr. Saylor continued, "MicroStrategy spent months deliberating to determine our capital allocation strategy. Our decision to invest in Bitcoin at this time was driven in part by a confluence of macro factors affecting the economic and business landscape that we believe is creating long-term risks for our corporate treasury program ― risks that should be addressed proactively. Those macro factors include, among other things, the economic and public health crisis precipitated by COVID-19, unprecedented government financial stimulus measures including quantitative easing adopted around the world, and global political and economic uncertainty. We believe that, together, these and other factors may well have a significant depreciating effect on the long-term real value of fiat currencies and many other conventional asset types, including many of the assets traditionally held as part of corporate treasury operations."

    submitted by /u/itisworking1
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    20.y.o NOOB; aggressive portfolio optimization

    Posted: 12 Aug 2020 05:01 AM PDT

    Current holdings:

    VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 40.00%

    QQQ PowerShares QQQ 30.00%

    IHI iShares US Medical Devices ETF 10.00%

    VXUS Vanguard Total International Stock ETF 10.00%

    VSS Vanguagrd FTSE All-World ex-US Sm-Cp ETF 10.00%

    Looking to save up for the down-payment of my first home. Please rate and suggest how I can improve/ optimize my portfolio.

    Thanks.

    submitted by /u/Bulky-Consideration
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    What are your thoughts on Bitcoin vs Ethereum vs altcoins?

    Posted: 12 Aug 2020 02:58 AM PDT

    The crypto markets are hot again.

    The investor chat still tends to revolve around Bitcoin, but if you hang around in cryptocurrency forums, the chat is more focused on Ethereum and DeFi (which is mainly built on top of Ethereum). Altcoins are still around but they don't get much attention.

    What does /investing thing of Bitcoin vs Ethereum?

    I'm not asking what your opinion of the crypto markets is in general, but your opinion on one crypto asset relative to the other.

    Do you have strong opinions on any altcoins (cryptocurrencies other then Bitcoin and Ethereum)?

    submitted by /u/greyzcale
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    Airbnb plans to confidentially file for IPO this month

    Posted: 11 Aug 2020 10:14 AM PDT

    They were struggling even before the pandemic and now they're doing much worse. Given layoffs and revenue, the IPO seems to be a way to keep them afloat until travel picks back up.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/11/airbnb-plans-to-confidentially-file-for-ipo-this-month.html

    The company had plans earlier this year to enter the public markets, but put those on hold due to the Covid-19 pandemic and laid off 25% of its staff, roughly 1,900 employees.

    At the time, CEO Brian Chesky told employees that its 2020 revenue will be less than half of what the company earned in 2019.

    The pandemic has been a huge hurdle for the short-term rental company to overcome, as it's devastated the travel and hospitality industries.

    Airbnb's private valuation has dropped to $18 billion, down from the $31 billion figure when it raised a round of funding in 2017. The company also raised $1 billion in April in equity and debt from Silver Lake and Sixth Street Partners to get through the crisis.

    submitted by /u/pipsdontsqueak
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    [Hubert Horan] Can Uber Ever Deliver? Uber has now lost $23.2 billion in the past four and a half years.

    Posted: 11 Aug 2020 09:09 AM PDT

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/08/hubert-horan-can-uber-ever-deliver-part-twenty-three-ubers-already-hopelessly-unprofitable-economics-take-a-major-coronavirus-hit.html

    Last Thursday, Uber announced a first half 2020 GAAP loss of $4.7 billion with a GAAP net margin of (-81%). Uber's "official" full year 2019 result was a GAAP loss of $8.5 billion with a (-60%) margin, but these were based on problematic accounting that makes it impossible to evaluate Uber's financial performance properly over time. After necessary adjustments that were documented in Part 22 [1], the more meaningful full year 2019 result was a GAAP loss of $5.9 billion with a (-42%) margin. Uber has now lost $23.2 billion in the past four and a half years.

    Uber burned $4 billion in cash in the first half of 2020. As of June 30th, it had $7.8 billion in unrestricted cash and short-term investments on hand. Uber's full year 2019 cash burn was $5.1 billion.

    For readers who have followed this series' depiction of Uber's awful economics and financial results over the past four years, these headlines may seem no more surprising than "Francisco Franco is still dead." [2] Nothing has happened to change the fact that after ten years, riders have always been fundamentally unwilling to pay prices that would cover Uber's actual costs, that Uber was always less efficient than the traditional taxis it drove out of business, that its only "efficiency improvement" was to push driver compensation to minimum wage levels, and that its growth depended entirely on unsustainable predatory subsidies.

    But if anyone still thought that Uber could somehow magically reverse its multi-billion dollar losses, the coronavirus should have put their fantasies totally to rest. The coronavirus has crushed the major drivers of urban car services demand, including business travel and discretionary urban entertainment (clubs, restaurants, etc.). Their customers remain highly concerned about the health risks of all forms of public transportation.

    While many industries have been devastated by the coronavirus it is critical to distinguish between those that clearly had a strongly profitable business model prior to the pandemic (United Airlines, Disneyland, Major League Baseball) and a company like Uber that had been incapable of generating positive cash flow under ideal economic conditions. There needs to be discussion about how to best restructure airlines, tourist and entertainment industries because they have contributed to overall economic welfare in the past, and clearly can in the future. Uber has only served to reduce overall economic welfare. Society has nothing to gain from "saving" Uber.

    2ndquarter Uber revenue in its core "rides/mobility" business fell 74% ($3,056m to $790m) from the 4thquarter of 2019, the last quarter with no coronavirus impacts. Echoing issues discussed in part three of my airline series [3] there is no prospect of any type of robust "V-shaped" urban car service revenue recovery. Demand may remain seriously depressed for years.

    2ndquarter Uber revenue in its "Eats/delivery" business doubled but the economics of these services were always substantially worse than Uber's hopeless car service business. Uber only reports segment financial performance on an "adjusted EBITDA" basis that (in the 2ndquarter) excluded 38% of actual Uber expense from its "profitability" calculation. But 2ndquarter "Eats/delivery" had an "adjusted EBITDA" 25 margin points worse than car services, even after the big coronavirus driven boost in food delivery demand. And since Eats' year-over year "adjusted EBITDA" improved by only $54 million (from negative $286 million to negative $232 million) even though revenue doubled, this business is clearly not "growing into profitability."

    Food delivery is hypercompetitive (DoorDash, GrubHub, JustEat, Deliveroo), neither customers nor restaurants can afford the true cost of the service, and none of these companies have ever been sustainably profitable. Uber has never presented a plausible argument it will suddenly become the first company to realize returns from investments in this business.

    Coverage of these results in the business and tech industry press was a bit less fawning than the coverage Uber received a few years ago. The fact that Uber has always been unprofitable and is still facing major legal challenges to its labor practices is now at least mentioned in all stories. But none of the dozen or so stories published on Friday [4] even raised the issues of whether (or how) Uber revenue might suddenly recover, or how Uber could quickly achieve cash breakeven. The question of whether the coronavirus shock had significantly increased the risks to Uber's viability and survival was totally ignored.

    Most stories emphasized top-line volume numbers instead of GAAP profits or cash flow. None made any mention of the impact of the revenue collapse on Uber's drivers, who comprise roughly 80% of Uber's business model but are not included in its financial reports.

    A couple of stories noted that the ridesharing collapse had been ugly, but most tried to obscure this issue by emphasizing the "pivot to delivery" as a "bright spot" and highlighting Dara Khosrowshahi's claims that with Eats, the company "had built a second Uber in under three years" and "ha[s] secured the path forward." None addressed the question of whether Uber could ever earn sustainable profits from food delivery. [5] None of the stories mentioned that recent Uber narrative claims such as the profit potential of driverless cars, or that it would soon become the "Amazon of Transportation" were totally absent from its presentation about 2ndquarter earnings.

    Several reporters cited Khosrowshahi's new claim that Uber would achieve "EBITDA profitability" by the end of 2021. None of these reporters appeared to understand that this measure was neither "profitability" or "EBITDA" [6]. None made any effort to document how Khosrowshahi hoped to achieve these multi-billion dollar improvements, or mentioned Uber's failure to achieve any of its past profitability promises or to otherwise evaluate the credibility of its newest promise. A couple of articles noted a previous Uber's promise to remove $1 billion in "fixed costs," but failed to note that Uber has never publicly explained where these cost cuts would come from, or that nothing in its 2ndquarter financial release provided any evidence of progress against that target. None considered how long it might take to exhaust Uber's remaining cash given highly depressed demand, or whether a company reporting these results would be able to attract new financing.

    submitted by /u/ssj4rab
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    If you can purchase fractional shares then do stock splits really mean anything?

    Posted: 11 Aug 2020 02:19 PM PDT

    Just read that Tesla is doing a 5 for 1 stock split, and I think last month Apple did a 4 for 1.

    Let's just make the math easy on us and use Apple as an example. If you have 0.5 shares before the split, you'll end up with 2. However your value is still the same.

    I would not be shocked if most people or even a large chunk of investors still only purchase full shares but it just seems to me like things are heading in the direction of fractional shares.

    submitted by /u/matty1monopoly
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    [The Street] Jim Cramer: "Don't Own Uber Stock: This Is Death Knell"

    Posted: 11 Aug 2020 04:49 PM PDT

    https://www.thestreet.com/streetlightning/stock-picks/this-is-death-knell-for-uber-says-jim-cramer

    A judge in California issued a preliminary injunction on Monday requiring Uber and Lyft to stop classifying their drivers as independent contractors, and potentially setting the stage for a major shift in their business models.

    Judge Ethan Schulman of San Francisco Superior Court granted a 10-day stay before the preliminary order takes effect. If the order is upheld, Uber and Lyft could be required to reclassify drivers as employees eligible for certain benefits and protections, rather than as contractors who work for themselves.

    Judge Schulman opined that Uber and Lyft use "circular" reasoning in arguing that their tech developers are employees, while their drivers are not.

    "Were this reasoning to be accepted, the rapidly expanding majority of industries that rely heavily on technology could with impunity deprive legions of workers of the basic protections afforded to employees by state labor and employment laws," Schulman wrote in the order. "To state the obvious, drivers are central, not tangential, to Uber and Lyft's entire ride-hailing business."

    The companies are likely to appeal the order.

    But if this order goes through, it might be the "death knell" for Uber, says Jim Cramer.

    submitted by /u/jonbonejones
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    Explain to me how real estate is a better investment than stocks

    Posted: 11 Aug 2020 06:40 AM PDT

    My parents bought their house for 126k in 1985. The house now is worth 600k.

    If I invested 126k into the Dow Jones in 1985 it was trading at 1500... Now it's at 28000.. more than 18x it's value. The investment would be worth 2.5 million dollars!

    Not to mention the price of renovations, mortgage interest rates, taxes..etc ...

    Why the hell should I buy a house as an investment??? Stocks require 0 work and I can liquidate them with a push of a button.

    submitted by /u/glcorso
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    OSTK - Overstock monumental 20wk run

    Posted: 11 Aug 2020 07:05 PM PDT

    someone help me comprehend this rally with overstock from the march lows.

    it was trading a little over 2 bucks, and up to 100 this very morning.

    roughly 3,600% increase in share price.

    that is a mind boggling number, in a mere 5 months.

    are you seriously trying to convince me that, Overstock all of a sudden saw it's retail volume increase by such an incredibly significant number to justify such a parabolic rise into the skies?

    I don't get it.

    submitted by /u/i-kno-nothing
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    $NIO

    Posted: 11 Aug 2020 05:25 PM PDT

    So I've done my DD and I still feel skeptical and confused. They look promising with their funding and backing BUT this also looks like a scam with some crazy fraud going on.

    So....what's the prognosis for Nio? Are we loving it or hating it? We buying or selling to avoiding?

    Is it a scam or is it legit?

    submitted by /u/Frenchtoastboi
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    Forex hype?

    Posted: 11 Aug 2020 01:48 PM PDT

    Over the past two years I've been bombarded with people advertising the "wonders" of trading on forex. Whether it's random people on my ig or twitter, or even people I know personally they keep trying to recruit people to join them in investing on forex. They claim that they make lots of profit with low investment just from their phone. Is forex legitimate or is it long-winded pyramid scheme?

    submitted by /u/cosmic_gangsta
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    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 11 Aug 2020 05:10 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
    [link] [comments]

    Tech slide

    Posted: 11 Aug 2020 03:09 PM PDT

    I've seen big returns on my account in the last 5 months especially (and even precovid going back to December) investing in tech based funds. Returns of 60 percent nearly. Recently there's by a 10 percent reversal... is this the bottom? Does tech start getting dip bought soon? I know overvalued stocks like zoom that were covid stocks may be in trouble with a vaccine coming and that a vaccine is bad for tech. But should I take my profits or wait for it to pick back up ??

    submitted by /u/ronburgundy40
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    Topships

    Posted: 11 Aug 2020 02:24 PM PDT

    I recently saw they have been dropping heavily over the years and thought maybe since theyre at the lowest they've ever been to go ahead and get in. It could drop more depending on the oil field and corona but id expect it to jump back up a bit with all the research fir corona and reports of a vaccine. Do yall think its worth it.

    submitted by /u/MilkValkiiry
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    Can a company dilute after an S-3 + EFFECT?

    Posted: 11 Aug 2020 09:21 AM PDT

    I'm looking at the SEC filings for PRPH:

    https://www.bamsec.com/companies/868278/prophase-labs-inc

    I notice they have an S-3 with an EFFECT, but they do not have a 424B5 detailing how they plan to sell their stock (e.g. if it's an at-the-market offering or otherwise). I'm wondering if this company can sell their stock as per their S-3 *without* a 424B5 disclosure, or do they need to first file a 424B5?

    submitted by /u/Future-Professional
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    Why are we still (technically) in a bear market?

    Posted: 11 Aug 2020 08:48 AM PDT

    I keep seeing headlines about how this could be the shortest bear market in history if stocks reach a new bull market this week. My question is... Why was it not already considered a new bull market when we gained more than 20% from the March/April low point? I thought 20% was the threshold?

    submitted by /u/gonets34
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