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    Tuesday, June 30, 2020

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 30 Jun 2020 05:11 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Dow jumps more than 500 points despite worsening COVID-19 cases in USA

    Posted: 29 Jun 2020 02:33 PM PDT

    The Dow jumped more than 500 points today despite the rise in COVID-19 cases. SPY rose by more than 1%. I think for all the traders thinking that we are due for a pullback because of the worsening COVID-19 situation need to think again. It seems the market does not believe that rising COVID-19 cases in the US and across the world is a relevant issue. I would be extremely careful about shorting right now.

    submitted by /u/LUCKIN_INVESTOR
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    Latest stats from Goldman show consumers starting to travel again, despite resurging COVID cases

    Posted: 29 Jun 2020 10:06 AM PDT

    May be good news for hotel and (to a lesser extent) airline stocks. Despite all the negative headlines around resurging COVID cases and increased restrictions in parts of the US and internationally, analyst checks at Goldman indicate leisure travel booking demand continuing to recover.

    A few interesting data points:

    1) a notable increase in bookings 0-15 days in advance of traveling reflecting consumers taking more spontaneous trips;

    2) for July 4 hotel bookings, the top 5 destinations are Vegas (+34.2% yoy), Panama City (+173.2%), Miami (+51.6%), Tampa (+26.6%) and Orlando (+15.2%);

    3) interestingly, July 4 airline bookings are less positive with Miami (-51.0% yoy), Orlando (-70.7%) and Vegas (-67.9%), which imply the bulk of the holiday weekend traffic will likely come from drive to travelers;

    4) corporate travel recovery is lagging leisure, but is seeing some "green shoots" most evident in European and US destinations;

    5) airline bookings confirm the recovery is lead by shorter-haul, domestic flights to destinations with outdoor attractions;

    6) closer-in airline bookings (91 to 180 days) are seeing a bigger rebound in domestic vs. international, but further out booking (181+ days) is actually seeing a bigger rebound in international than domestic.

    submitted by /u/street-guru
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    What factors could lead the S&P500 committee to reject an eligible TSLA?

    Posted: 29 Jun 2020 07:49 AM PDT

    If TSLA became S&P500 eligible, the only barrier between it and entering the index would be getting rejected by the committee. What reasons are there that they could reject for?

    I've seen places like r/realtesla saying their fraudulent accounting will be found out and be the ultimate cause of rejection but I'm not sure if that's the case or if there's other factors not considered. Has there been any historical rejections of a company the size of Tesla?

    submitted by /u/TotallyNotCorporate
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    "Lululemon is buying exercise hardware startup Mirror for half a billion dollars"

    Posted: 29 Jun 2020 03:00 PM PDT

    https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/29/21307484/lululemon-mirror-startup-acquire-purchase

    "Lululemon, the company behind trendy fitness apparel, is getting into the hardware business with Mirror. The fitness lifestyle company announced on Monday it would spend $500 million to acquire the startup, which sells a $1,495 reflective display so subscribers can exercise while simultaneously streaming workouts and watching themselves"

    My thoughts: On paper this seems not to be a bad deal - it appears Mirror is inching near profitability, has significant revenue and MAU. Other players in the at-home fitness space like Peloton have fared well in these recent corona times. Lululemon and other fitness-wear companies have had their sales affected recently, but diversifying into the fitness tech space may be somewhat of a wise hedge. Obviously at a $1500 price tag, they're not targeting a general consumer base.

    submitted by /u/bigchungusmode96
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    Only 1 systemically important bank to cut dividend

    Posted: 29 Jun 2020 05:16 PM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/bank-of-america-citi-and-goldman-keep-dividends-the-same-post-stress-tests-wells-fargo-to-cut.html

    Wells Fargo

    Per-share dividend for quarter ended March 31: 51 cents

    New dividend: Reduced. Exact payout to be determined.

    Notable commentary:

    "We expect our second quarter results will include an increase in the allowance for credit losses substantially higher than the increase in the first quarter," said CEO Charlie Scharf. "Wells Fargo continues to have one of the strongest capital positions relative to regulatory minimums among the world's financial services firms as demonstrated by our stress test results. These are certainly extremely challenging times for many and we remain committed to supporting our customers and communities, and we will continue to take appropriate measures to maintain strong capital and liquidity levels and to improve the earnings capacity of the company."

    submitted by /u/TrumpHasASmallPnis
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    Norwegian drops BA order - steps up legal proceedings

    Posted: 29 Jun 2020 10:25 PM PDT

    Can't find an actual English link, but Norwegian is reported (in local media) to have dropped a 97 plane order and cancelled further service agreements. They will also step up the legal proceedings to get compensation for losses related to grounding of the 373 MAX and 787 engines.

    EDIT: It's reported through the market.

    " Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA (NAS) – Notice of termination to the Boeing Company of purchase agreements and GoldCare agreement

    Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA (the "Company" or "Norwegian") has issued a notice to the Boeing Company ("Boeing") of termination of the Company's purchase agreements of the remaining five Boeing 787 aircraft, 92 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft and the GoldCare service agreements (BSG) related to the 787 and MAX aircraft. Norwegian has in addition filed a legal claim seeking the return of pre-delivery payments (PDP) related to the aircraft and compensation for the Company's losses related to the grounding of the 737-Max and engine issues on the 787. The Company's 737 MAX aircraft have been grounded since the world-wide grounding of the aircraft type was imposed on 12 March 2019. This has also disrupted NAS' operations and caused significant losses. In addition Norwegian's Rolls-Royce Trent 1000-powered 787 aircraft have suffered from long-running reliability issues that have affected reliability and resulted in premature and unplanned maintenance, which has disrupted the Company's operations and caused further significant losses. Norwegian has engaged in a commercial dialogue with Boeing with a view to resolving its 787 and 737 MAX issues and obtaining compensation for its losses. The dialogue has [yet to date] not led to an agreement with a reasonable compensation to the Company. Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA Fornebu 29 June 2020 "

    submitted by /u/Joppe84
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    How to calculate the loan amount on a prime broker account?

    Posted: 30 Jun 2020 04:56 AM PDT

    How do you actually calculate the amount of the loan from the broker, on a prime account, by knowing:

    Long market value
    Short market value
    Cash balance

    but without knowing the initial investment in the account.

    Let's take the following example:

    LMV = 80mln
    SMV = 30mln
    Cash = 20mln

    Gross exposure = (LMV + SMV) / Net Liquidation value (LMV – SMV + CASH) = 110 / 70 = 157%?

    What's the formula to get the exact amount of the money borrowed from the broker?
    Can it be calculated only with the info above?

    submitted by /u/norpheid
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    The Bull Case for Avid Techologies

    Posted: 29 Jun 2020 11:59 PM PDT

    Avid Technologies ($AVID) has been an impressive stock coming an impressive ~63% from its lows in mid May. An insider (Impactive Capital) has recently more than doubled their position in a month and a half, now owning 15% when their previous ownership was around 5% in early May.

    Avid saw revenue declines like most public companies due to COVID 19 in Q1, sending their stock down to the lows in May. However, their services revenue increased 10% YoY and is their higher margin revenue line at 75% gross margin. The decrease in overall revenue is due to their decrease in product revenue associated with COVID 19 impacts.

    To counteract this management has decided to implement cost savings initiatives that will save the company roughly 40 million in 2020, with 9 million savings in Q2 alone. That will leave about 15.5 million in savings remaining for Q3 and Q4, their highest revenue quarters historically.

    Management did not provide further guidance for 2020 and pulled the guidance they did have, but provided us with key information. 1. They expect services revenue to increase again YoY and continue throughout the year, with product revenue decreasing (bringing down total for Q2 again) but expect pent up demand to increase going into Q3 and Q4. 2. They expect operating expenses to be down 9M in Q2 and 40M for the year due to the cost savings they implemented. Using this information we can do some number crunching.

    *all numbers in thousands

    Q1 revenue 19: 103,319 Gross profit: 61,282 Margin: 59.31%

    Q1 revenue 20: 86,483 (decrease of 16.3%) Gross profit: 53,151 (decrease of 13.3%) Margin: 61.46% (increase of 3.6%)

    Q1 19 expenses: 55,872 Q1 20 expenses: 53,603 (decrease of 4.1%)

    Q1 19 EBITDA: 5410 Q1 20 EBITDA: -451

    Assuming 9M expenses savings from Q2 19 and 12% revenue decrease YoY, same profit margin as Q1 20:

    Q2 revenue 19: 98701 Gross profit: 56660 Margin: 57.41%

    Q2 revenue 20: 86857 (12% decrease) Gross profit: 53381 (5.8% decrease) Margin: same as Q1 2020

    Q2 19 expenses: 54093 Q2 20 expenses: 45093 (assuming 9M in savings)

    Q2 19 EBITDA: 2567 Q2 20 EBITDA: 8287

    Management stated in their EOY 19 results they expected 2020 0.84 non gaap EPS. GAAP EPS should've fallen around 0.55. With their revenue decreases and cost savings I expect GAAP EPS of around 0.41. With a PE ratio of 25 that gives us a stock price of $10.25 a share. It's current valued at 7.53 and would represent a 36% upside.

    If their revenue comes back faster then I think they may very well meet that 0.55 GAAP EPS thanks to their 40M cost savings. Assuming they maintain their margins (which they hinted at in Q1 they would) a 0.55 EPS and PE of 25 puts the stock price at 13.75 and would represent 82.6% upside.

    *the reason I only did Q2 numbers is because I didn't feel like typing out the other quarters. My phone is the smaller iPhone, the struggle is real.

    *I am long AVID.

    submitted by /u/CrustyMold
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    Question about buying a friend's stock option at a private startup

    Posted: 29 Jun 2020 05:02 PM PDT

    A great friend of mine cannot afford to buy all of his stock options given to him at a private tech startup. He offered to let me buy 5,000 shares under his name. There's a decent chance that the company could one day IPO and it could be profitable so I am definitely interested.

    Does anyone have experience with this?.. some questions I have are:

    - Can we legally draft up a document that the 5,000 shares are mine incase there are personal problems that come up later on?

    -He's going to have to pay taxes on these shares since they are under his name. How can I calculate this?

    -Is this a bad Idea?! Any tips?

    submitted by /u/Get_emmmmms
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    Fidelity Cash

    Posted: 30 Jun 2020 06:12 AM PDT

    Question about fidelity cash:

    Once a sell occurs, does the "cash available to trade" have to be "settled" in order to be used to buy other options?

    Or once the transaction is complete, and it appears as "cash available to trade", can it be used?

    What is the difference between available to trade vs settled?

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/turboCode9
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    Oxford Lane Capital Corp (OXLC) just cut it's Dividend Payout

    Posted: 30 Jun 2020 06:11 AM PDT

    ETFs in a diversified portfolio

    Posted: 30 Jun 2020 05:58 AM PDT

    Hey all. I'm 23 and a student working PT and I started investing around mid-may. I've put in around 6.5k into a portfolio of around 35 stocks, fairly well diversified across sectors, and planning to put in around 500 every month. Currently, I have 3 main ETFs, Vanguard S&P 500, iShares FTSE 100 and iShares Emerging Markets. I tried to get global coverage through my ETFs but eventually sold out. Since I'm quite young, I'm happy to take slightly more risks. In light of this, I have been contemplating selling out of my positions on ETFs to buy individual stocks that I find promising. I'm particularly thinking of the FTSE 100. Currently, about 1/6 of my portfolio are in ETFs and while the returns so far are okay, I see greater returns on individual stocks that I believe are a really good value right now (like Pfizer and JP Morgan).

    Also, I'm going for a buy and hold strategy for at least 10-15 years. For anyone following value investing strategy, is there merit in selling out of ETFs? How much of your portfolio should be ETFs?

    submitted by /u/notredwan
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    Looking for advice - The Stars Group (TSG) shares stuck on my broker...they should be converted to Flutter Entertainment (PDYPF)

    Posted: 30 Jun 2020 05:49 AM PDT

    The Stars Group (TSG) merged with Flutter Entertainment on May 5th 2020 and all TSG shareholders are entitled to 0.2253 shares of Flutter Entertainment. As of today, I only have a TSG placeholder on my brokerage account. I have been in contact with my broker multiple times to check on the status of when I will be receiving my shares however each time, the same answer I get is that they are waiting for the Flutter shares to come in and they continue to push back the date I should receive them by a week or two every time.

    Flutter entertainment has a FAQ document (https://www.flutter.com/sites/paddy-power-betfair/files/faq-regarding-settlement-of-flutter-shares-following-completion-of-the-acquisition-of-the-stars-group-inc-10-june-2020.pdf) on what a broker has to do to claim the Flutter shares.

    What can I do besides telling my broker to do what the FAQ document says they need to do to claim the Flutter shares? Or is it basically a waiting game at this point? I am just concerned I've lost out on what I had with my TSG shares.

    Thank you.

    submitted by /u/SPACwhisperer
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    How do you like xerox stock?

    Posted: 30 Jun 2020 05:36 AM PDT

    Hi guys, Sorry for my English, I started learning

    I am from Russia and have been trading for a long time. I recently learned about Robingood and decided to ask you? Over the past two months, I have seen stock prices of many companies return to the level of corovinrus. And for ordinary people who want to earn a lot of money, some stocks become very expensive

    I started looking for stocks of undervalued companies, and I found a copier for the company. I was very surprised to see the chart. With a market cap of $ 3.7 billion, Xerox Holdings Corp. (XRX) has a price-earnings ratio of 3.27. According to the Peter Lynch earnings line, the stock has a fair value of $ 43.05 while trading at down $ 16.

    The stock has lost 50.14% over the last 12 months and is now 55.94% below the 52-week high and 22.29% above the 52-week low.

    The software company has a GuruFocus profitability rating of 6 out of 10. The return on equity of 22.38% and return on assets of 8.23% are outperforming 77% of companies in the software industry. Its financial strength is rated 5 out of 10. The cash-debt ratio of 0.61 is below the industry median of 2.24.

    The company largest guru shareholder is Carl Icahn (Trades, Portfolio) with 11.02% of outstanding shares, followed by Jim Simons (Trades, Portfolio) 'Renaissance Technologies with 0.61% and Joel Greenblatt (Trades, Portfolio)' s Gotham Asset Management with 1.58 %

    I am waiting for a price above 40 bucks and buy 3500 stock.

    https://ru.tradingview.com/chart/P4JbHUsa/

    If we look at the chart, we will see an inverted hammer, which indicates the future growth of the stock.

    submitted by /u/DirectorOfFriday
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    Wirecard ban lifted in the UK

    Posted: 29 Jun 2020 03:56 PM PDT

    On 29 June 2020, the FCA provided written consent to allow Wirecard to resume issuing e-money and providing payment services. The restriction on activities will lift at 00.01 on 30 June 2020.

    https://www.fca.org.uk/news/news-stories/requirements-imposed-wirecard-authorisation

    submitted by /u/buttrimming
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    Jim Mitchell of Mitchell Partners wrote a letter to the commissioner of the SEC back in 2018 advocating in favor of keeping OTC markets open for astute investors to be able to make money.

    Posted: 30 Jun 2020 05:20 AM PDT

    https://www.sec.gov/comments/265-31/26531-4506047-175978.pdf

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/making-big-money-in-microcap-stocks-51568995601

    Barrons did an interview with Jim Mitchell a few years ago and he detailed his investment history of finding companies in the pink sheets (when they were called that) and making great money. In this letter he quotes his investments in Pardee Resources and Hershey Creamery Company. His Barrons article mentions investments in Alaska Power and Water, Aztec Land and Cattle, and Farmers & Merchants Bank of Long Beach. Aztec Land is selling at $220.00 a share right now. OTC doesn't mean penny stock or dubious company, like we are taught to believe. I did a video series on Conrad Industries and I think they're a solid company, OTC traded. Here's some more research for opportunities.

    submitted by /u/howtoreadspaghetti
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    Good faith violations

    Posted: 29 Jun 2020 10:53 AM PDT

    Is it possible to buy and sell a stock the same day with settled funds without getting good faith violations using a cash account, broker is fidelity.

    Here is the error I get when i try to sell a stock bought with settled funds :

    The sell order you are about to place includes shares that are not yet settled (paid for). Please be aware that if the funds used to purchase these shares are not settled, this sale may result in a Good Faith Violation. Read Avoiding Cash Account Trading Violations for further clarification

    That stock was 2 days old, but when i tryed to sell a stock bought with settled funds the same day there isnt a warning.

    This is copied from fidelity"

    Good faith violation example, Trudy:

    • Cash available to trade = $10,000, all of which is settled
    • On Monday morning, Trudy buys $10,000 of XYZ stock
    • On Monday mid-day, she sells XYZ stock for $10,500

    At this point, Trudy has not incurred a good faith violation because she had sufficient settled funds to pay for the purchase of XYZ stock at the time of the purchase.

    submitted by /u/Sushi-Rice
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    How to keep up with pivotal company decisions/changes?

    Posted: 29 Jun 2020 07:43 AM PDT

    After buying into a company, how does everyone keep up with company decisions and changes?

    What resources does everyone use outside of the basic social media/newsletter email? I know the outlets each company uses varies. I'd rather not wait for quarterly/annual reports to hear big changes and don't want to miss out on information that may or may not have a huge effect on my position.

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/razorfengraul
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    Looking at GE financials only

    Posted: 29 Jun 2020 11:12 AM PDT

    I'm a super newbie Can someone explain based on looking at their balance sheet and cash flow why so many people think GE could go bust. No speculation just financials. I looked today and their free cash flow is positive They have more assets than debt.

    I know the stigmas and being in aero during covid and stuff.

    But I guess just based on financials what stands out to the people that know what their talking about. What makes you go this is not good right away.

    submitted by /u/alejandro1212
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    How is protective puts (Hedging) working? I do not really get it

    Posted: 29 Jun 2020 07:11 AM PDT

    I own 100 shares of pypl since $80. When it reached $173 recently, I bought a long put(Hedge) to protect against falling price.

    It was priced $29.54 and it costed me $2954.

    Today, PYPL price came down to $166, but puts price is also came down to $2875.

    I do not really see the benefit of hedging, am I wrong here in hedging?

    [edit]

    I bought it two days before when PYPL was $172.5-173 range. The expiry is 2022 - the actual puts => PUT (PYPL) PAYPAL HLDGS INC COM JAN 21 22 $170 (100 SHS)

    Finally sold it today for slight profit as I do not clearly know the hedge, but did not sell the stock.

    These replies gave me good insight. I will take more time to research (whatever suggested) and learn more about it.

    Thank you everyone for the positive responses.

    submitted by /u/AlgoWinner
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    Lilis Energy Files for Bankruptcy

    Posted: 29 Jun 2020 11:11 AM PDT

    https://www.thestreet.com/investing/lilis-energy-llex-chapter-11-bankruptcy

    Lilis Energy (LLEX) - Get Report, an oil and gas producer, announced Monday that it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Houston.

    The company's filing comes the day after Chesapeake Energy (CHK) - Get Report, once the country's second-largest gas producer, filed for bankruptcy itself.

    Lilis operates in the Permian Basin of West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico.

    It has a restructuring agreement with many of its creditors and equity holders, including Varde Partners, the company said in a statement.

    Under the agreement, common shareholders would be wiped out. The plan would likely reduce Lilis' funded debt obligations by more than $34.9 million.

    The plan has to be approved by the bankruptcy court.

    "The company expects to continue to operate in the ordinary course throughout the restructuring process without material disruption to vendors, suppliers and partners," Lilis said.

    The plan is contingent on Varde providing an equity commitment and additional debtor-in-possession financing. If Varde decides not to do so, or the restructuring plan isn't pursued, Lilis will sell off its assets, the company said.

    Lilis has suffered big time from the decline of oil and gas prices during the coronavirus pandemic.

    It has received a commitment from its bank lenders to provide up to $15.0 million in debtor-in-possession financing. The company anticipates up to $5.0 million will be available on an interim basis.

    "With the company's usual operating cash flows, these financings are expected to provide sufficient liquidity for it to continue to operate in the ordinary course through the restructuring process," Lilis said.

    The company's shares stood at 22.43 cents, down 13.4% in premarket trading, and have plunged 57% over the last year through Friday.

    submitted by /u/dino_74
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