Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Life lessons learned from Investing
- S&P 500 now out of correction territory; highest close since March 4th
- Shorting Uber
- Zoom Video earnings and sales blow away expectations, stock rises toward more records
- Will the next 30yr growth region be Africa? How to adjust portfolio?
- How much of the Fed’s $7 trillion balance sheet was issued as new debt?
- Schwab Slices (i.e. Schwab's fractional shares) now available
- Biden capital gains tax repercussions
- What is the best free investing platform that has access to fractional shares?
- Undervalued stock - Imperial Oil ($IMO)- Below P/B and set to survive
- For those that believe the market is oversold, how are you capitalizing?
- Positive basic EPS but negative diluted EPS?
- What is your current portfolio allocation?
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- $FB, $GOOGL - Digital advertising trends still continue to improve:
- How to profit from inflation?
- Generally speaking, does adding a small-cap emphasis to one's portfolio lead to higher gains in the long-run, but with more volatility?
- Morningstar on Zoom ($ZM): Zoom Delivers the Best Quarter We Have Ever Seen; Valuation Still Hard to Justify; FVE up to $116
- Trader Bob
- What percent of my investment should be in an index funds and how much in individual stocks?
- BRK.B laggind behind SP500. Any chance for a surge?
- Upcoming Stock IPO Discussion
- £20,000 in individual stocks - Should I have just used Index Funds?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 02 Jun 2020 05:10 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Life lessons learned from Investing Posted: 03 Jun 2020 02:55 AM PDT I have drawn many parallels, and learned many life lessons from my investing experience. I thought I would share with you some of those principles. I hope they help you in however you decide to apply them. These are not investing rules. These are principles for a better life.
Notes from OP: 4. Quantify everything: I am a quant investor. Quantitative investing is evidence-based investing. I am not a day-trader; I use backtested investing strategies that have outperformed the markets over the past 100 years. My single biggest inspiration in investing was the book "What works on Wall Street" by James O'Shaughnessy. The book has changed every facet of my life. Quantitive models nearly always outperform qualitative judgement. 8. Occam's razor:A simple model very often outperforms the more complex. Dresdner, Klein, Wort did a study into the accuracy of the diagnosis of psychosis. They had two cohorts: Medical students, and experienced medical doctors. The medical students correctly diagnosed psychosis 59% of the time, and the doctors correctly diagnosed psychosis 64% of the time. However, when a simple model was introduced as an aid to the cohorts, the medical student improved to a 67% accuracy and the doctor improved to 75%. However when the model was used alone - with NO qualitative judgement, it was correct 83% of the time. The best by far. Trust the model. 14. Set it, and forget it: I wholly trust my investing strategy. In fact, my human emotion is the weakness. The model is a ceiling from which we detract, not a floor on which we build. The potential weakness is that I over-trade, or liquidate. Because of this I only look at my portfolio once per year. I turnover my portfolio each December, selling whatever has left my screen, and buying whatever has entered it. 16. Loss aversion: Loss aversion was outline by Nobel prize winner Daniel kannemann. I use a website called beeminder (.com) to help me achieve my goals and keep up my habits. I pledge a certain amount of money that I will keep up my habit, if I don't I have to pay up. It is VERY powerful and has allowed me to achieve a lot. 19. Be a sceptic: CXO tracked the results of 6,582 predictions from 68 different investing gurus, made between 1998 and 2012. The average of the gurus accuracy was 47%. Worse than a coin toss. Be a doubting thomas. If you have any interest in quantitative investing come on over to r/FactorInvesting! [link] [comments]  |
| S&P 500 now out of correction territory; highest close since March 4th Posted: 02 Jun 2020 02:02 PM PDT S&P 500 now closer to its all time high, than at the peak of the May 2008 bear market rally Thought about selling a part of my portfolio multiple times since the 2900s; think I'll just hold for a few decades [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Jun 2020 11:19 AM PDT Uber IPO'd 1 year ago for $42 a share raising $8.1bn with an initial market cap of $70bn. Today the stock trades at $34 and has a market cap of $62bn. It is trading at a 72x it's 2-year forward P/E ratio. The notion that Uber will be profitable in 2022 at $.48 / share by developing a brand new business line or being first to market with self-driving cars is utterly fanciful. Uber's growth stalled even before the Coronavirus. Uber's revenue grew 100% from 2016 to 2017. Investors were going wild and Uber was taking over the world. Uber bought Otto, a self-driving trucking company that stole data from Google to found the company. In 2017, after many lawsuits, it forgot Otto existed and focused on self-driving cars. Over the past month, Uber laid off 6,700 employees, or 30% of their staff, and shuddered dozens of offices throughout the world to achieve savings of $1bn. Achieving profitability by cost savings is impossible for a business that can only achieve profitability through massive scale. A 30% workforce reduction shows that today they have absolutely no plan to develop new technology or business lines that can move them in the direction of profitability. It basically removes any hope of developing a new future for Uber. Uber will not come out with AWS, buy supermarket to deliver food, nor have the luxury to burn $4bn per year on self-driving cars (Waymo). As of its last filing, which only had a couple weeks worth of Coronavirus fear, Uber grew just 14.3%. Uber ridership growth is slowing dramatically. Furthermore, the lasting impact of the Coronavirus and an increased acceptance of work from home may forever halt Uber's growth. Uber themselves admit rides will never be profitable until there are self-driving cars. If you just watched the Tesla 3 crash straight into an overturned big rig, we're not going to get there in the next few years. Certainly not by 2022. In the mean time, Uber will continue to burn $10bn a year just to stay relevant. Er, maybe $9bn if you believe their recent cost-cutting measures will be effective. You may think Uber Eats is the next big thing, but remember they lose $3.36 on every order and they don't expect profitability until 2024. Also, operations behind Eats are much more complex. A self driving car cannot deliver food. Maybe they'll figure that out, but not any time soon. Growth, while high is slowing. And remember more growth means more lost money. Could Uber Be the Next Amazon? Fuck no. Uber is not the next Amazon. While Amazon chose to not take any profits and reinvest in their business, it was still a choice. Uber has no magic switch to make money and their business revolves around increasing mobility, not cost cutting and decreased commuting from office workers. Uber's 'Other Bets' account for a paltry $30mm in revenue. Google gets to use 'Other Bets' as a line item. Not Uber. But how are they supposed to grow 'Other Bets' R&D if they have no business line that makes money? Amazon has always had a profitable ecommerce business. Google has search, Apple makes the highest quality hardware in the world and Microsoft is a combination of Google and Apple (and other stuff that always seems to make money). I see no bright spot in Uber's future that will allow them to achieve even half of their current valuation. Uber Has a Serious Cash Problem. $9bn might seem like a lot of money for a company with a $62bn market cap, but somehow, it's actually a scary number. Over the last 12 months Uber burned through $10bn in cash, funded by high yield debt. Furthermore, Uber has basically zero tangible assets they can use to secure debt. They only have their brand and driver relationships, which are about as toxic as their $900mm in debt coming due in 2025, with a yield of 7.5%. Imagine if your mortgage had a 7.5% rate. Uber's Q2 numbers coming out in August are going to be downright scary. Banks are already loading up on high yield notes at the behest of the government. Why would they add Uber to their portfolio of UEDs? The fact Uber even considered investing in Flying Taxis puts them in the same mental facility as Adam Neumann. The world looked great in 2018 and 2019. Today is different. We won't have flying taxis anytime soon, I think people would rather increase remote work and live in more affordable areas further from city centers. Taking a flying taxi into work right now is a fantasy we do not need. I just want to have a drink at a bar... All that said, I don't think Uber will go bankrupt. In all likelihood, they will merge with Grubhub, achieve some scale in food delivery, and centralize their ride-share programs to large cities with increased pricing at a dramatically lower scale. Business trips will be fewer and Zoom meetings will be more common. Today I'm buying a few put options expiring on December 18th. That's plenty of time for there to be bad news about earnings and for earnings to be released. I'd like to see Uber do well in the long-term and I don't hate the company. I think they're important to the economy and they take the kind of risks we need to push innovation forward. I just don't like the current valuation. [link] [comments]  |
| Zoom Video earnings and sales blow away expectations, stock rises toward more records Posted: 02 Jun 2020 01:31 PM PDT "Zoom ZM, +1.92% reported net income of $27 million, or 9 cents a share, compared with net income of $2.2 million, or less than a penny a share, in the year-ago quarter. After adjusting for stock-based compensation and other factors, Zoom reported earnings of 20 cents a share, up from 3 cents a share a year ago." "Executives expect the astounding growth to continue: Zoom's forecast calls for $495 million to $500 million in the fiscal second quarter, more than double the average analyst estimate. For the full year, Zoom now expects revenue of $1.78 billion to $1.8 billion, nearly double Zoom's previous annual forecast for a maximum of $915 million in yearly sales. The company now expects full-year adjusted earnings of $1.21 a share to $1.29 a share, after previously guiding for yearly profit of 42 cents to 45 cents a share." [link] [comments]  |
| Will the next 30yr growth region be Africa? How to adjust portfolio? Posted: 03 Jun 2020 04:07 AM PDT In part inspired by the book Factfullness by Hans Rosling there are some facts that have me thinking:
The points above (and I'm probably missing a few) lead me to believe that we might see significant growth in the region. What are your opinions? Am I missing something? What would be a good strategy to incorporate the region into my index portfolio? Recommendations for ETF's (that I can buy in EU). [link] [comments]  |
| How much of the Fed’s $7 trillion balance sheet was issued as new debt? Posted: 02 Jun 2020 10:07 PM PDT I know this isn't straight up investing but it's somewhat related I figured if any community would know the answer it's you guys. The fed just spent $7 trillion since Corona started. I know there was a lot added to the federal debt, but I also remember hearing a lot of talk about "printing money" and printed 2 $1 trillion coins. So the fed can either issue bonds (adding to the debt) or print money. My question is, what amount of that 7 trillion was issued in bonds and what amount was printed? [link] [comments]  |
| Schwab Slices (i.e. Schwab's fractional shares) now available Posted: 03 Jun 2020 04:05 AM PDT Originally thought to be released on June 9th, but they are available starting today. [link] [comments]  |
| Biden capital gains tax repercussions Posted: 03 Jun 2020 02:05 AM PDT Biden plans to raise capital gains tax to be in par with personal income tax. A sizeable increase to many. We could debate whether that's a good thing and whether Biden will get elected or not. But I theorize they'll be market sell off so that people could cash in the lower capital gains rate. Then repurchase stocks after the capital tax is passed. Any thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| What is the best free investing platform that has access to fractional shares? Posted: 03 Jun 2020 12:37 AM PDT |
| Undervalued stock - Imperial Oil ($IMO)- Below P/B and set to survive Posted: 03 Jun 2020 03:48 AM PDT This is my 2nd DD post for hidden gems. My previous call was on MTY which rallied by over 12% since my last post. https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/gth2ac/undervalued_restaurant_franchisor_a_case_for/ Here's a second one for ya'll. Imperial Oil (an integrated petroleum company majority-owned by Exxon-Mobil).
[link] [comments]  |
| For those that believe the market is oversold, how are you capitalizing? Posted: 03 Jun 2020 03:44 AM PDT I know many disagree, but I do not think the market makes much sense right now and is artificially propped up which will result in a collapse in the next year. So for those that agree, what are you stocks or sectors are you shorting or how are you planning on capitalizing? [link] [comments]  |
| Positive basic EPS but negative diluted EPS? Posted: 03 Jun 2020 01:27 AM PDT I understand that diluted EPS can be lower, sometimes significantly lower than basic, but how can basic be positive and diluted be negative? I've seen this with a few companies, docu as an example. I thought diluted represented outstanding options but it must also represent something else to end up negative. [link] [comments]  |
| What is your current portfolio allocation? Posted: 02 Jun 2020 09:13 PM PDT
[link] [comments]  |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 03 Jun 2020 05:12 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| $FB, $GOOGL - Digital advertising trends still continue to improve: Posted: 02 Jun 2020 10:28 AM PDT According to analyst checks at Raymond James, digital advertising trends overall, as well as the pricing trends for both Facebook and Google, continue to improve, particularly in the eCommerce channel. Facebook/IG global CPMs continue to trend up from pre-COVID levels according to Gupta Media. Overall, global CPMs recently reached $2 (vs. bottom at ~0.75) though still down from pre-COVID levels in the $2-$3 range. According to Social Fulcrum, Facebook CPMs have been rising 5% each week since the last week of March and are back at pre-COVID levels. According to Within, Omnichannel retailer spend with FB continues to trend up vs. the benchmark date with FB spend up from 50-180% over the past few weeks. Google spend has been tracking up positive since early April, with spend up in the 10-50% in May vs. the benchmark date. Pure-play eCommerce spend with Facebook has increased ~30% over the past few weeks (vs. benchmark) while Google spend continues to improve and is tracking up ~15% since the benchmark date. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Jun 2020 03:48 PM PDT What is the best way to profit from inflation? I live in a country which will likely face its highest inflation rate in 40+ years in the near future. How do I best capitalize? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Jun 2020 04:47 PM PDT Hello, The main details are in the question. I've been a 3-fund investor (VTSAX, VTIAX, VBTLX) 55/35/10 for a while now) but recently reallocated some of each of those funds into a fourth fund, VSMAX, which is a small-cap index fund that incorporates both growth and value stocks. Now, my portfolio looks like (VTSAX / VTIAX / VBTLX / VSMAX) in about 50/30/5/15 ratios, and I did this under the presumption that the upside that typically comes with small-caps leads to higher yields, if not a more volatile journey, in the long run. Am I misguided here? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Jun 2020 10:11 PM PDT "We are in unchartered territory model-wise after huge quarterly upside in the face of the COVID-19 recession along with sharply higher guidance, which in turn drives our new fair value estimate from $62 to $116. We note shares have approximately tripled year to date thus far, so even allowing for a complete model reset, we still cannot come close to supporting the current share price within the context of our DCF model." [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Jun 2020 05:22 AM PDT |
| What percent of my investment should be in an index funds and how much in individual stocks? Posted: 03 Jun 2020 05:16 AM PDT I want to start investing in the stock market but I don't know how much I should invest in index funds and how much in individual stocks. Thank you! [link] [comments]  |
| BRK.B laggind behind SP500. Any chance for a surge? Posted: 03 Jun 2020 04:09 AM PDT Looking at the chart it becomes obvious that Berkshire hasn't really participated in this rally that we've seen last two months: Should one expect, based on the historic performance, that sooner or later it will catch up with SP500? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Jun 2020 12:08 AM PDT Anyone got any interesting upcoming IPO stocks that they're looking at? Let's discuss! [link] [comments]  |
| £20,000 in individual stocks - Should I have just used Index Funds? Posted: 03 Jun 2020 03:37 AM PDT Hi everyone, just looking for a bit of advice and opinion. I got made redundant last year and received around £15,000 in my payout so decided to invest it into stocks + £5,000 of my own savings. Financially, I'm comfortable to put in £500 a month which I've been doing. My timing probably couldn't have been any worse in that I bought my stocks in January, then coronavirus kicked my portfolio down quite a bit (about 25%+ at it's worst)! I'm currently 'only' 9% down now but I'm thinking I wish I'd have just bought index funds as I've read a lot about them recently and feel they were a better route? The stocks I've picked are what I think are solid blue-chip companies with a decent dividend history. My top 10 holdings are Coca Cola, PepsiCo, McDonalds, Realty Income, 3M, JP Morgan, Unilever, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson and AbbVie. Some of my portfolio is up, and some is down. I'm debating selling my "ups" and replacing them with index funds. And hopefully waiting the 'downs' out until they recover some more. I'm also thinking of just using the £500 a month for solely index funds from now on? I did read something about the XX% of index returns only coming from the top 20% (?) of companies in that fund. I'm not sure of the numbers but hopefully you can see what I mean. What would people's advice be? Stick with my large "no fail" dividend businesses, or cash it all in and just use indexes? [link] [comments]  |
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