WSJ: No rent was paid in April by nearly a third of American renters Investing |
- WSJ: No rent was paid in April by nearly a third of American renters
- I liquidated my entire portfolio on March 23rd - the bottom.
- The thing which will make the market drop...
- NY Times - Rally driven by FOMO money managers + short sellers
- WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Cause Deep U.S. Contraction, 13% Unemployment
- The dow today is higher than it was on first day of 2019. How can this possibly be correct?
- Disney+ has more than 50M subscribers
- For everyone worried about missing a/the bottom, here is a bit of advice
- Axios: Staples refuses to pay landlords for April rents
- Where was the rampant hyperinflation post-2008?
- Aswath Damodaran (Professor of corporate finance and investment philosophy) breaks down the last 6 weeks. (VIDEO)
- Subscribers here with 2008 real estate experience: what was your experience with real estate developers that continued to close on properties through 2008 at the pre-crisis negotiated sales prices?
- Buying options after hours
- Why do you think the stock market keeps going up when so many people are laid off and businesses are closed?
- Share your portfolio
- Are we currently watching the healthcare bubble burst?
- Geekwire: Redfin lays off 7% of staff, furloughs hundreds of agents due to COVID-19 impact on housing demand
- Southwest Airlines (LUV) is the safest airline bet, but United Airlines (UAL) is the BEST RISK-ADJUSTED INVESTMENT.
- How do you value $ZM and justify its 1,300 PE ratio?
- Narrative of never being able to time the market
- What are the different outcomes of tomorrow's oil meeting between Trump, Russia and the Saudis?
- Airbnb Coronavirus Crisis
- FT: Wall Street urges caution as bullish investors rush into recovery bets
| WSJ: No rent was paid in April by nearly a third of American renters Posted: 08 Apr 2020 07:15 AM PDT Only the first week was studied so the number may improve but given all the circumstances this will likely be a continuing trend over the next month or two
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| I liquidated my entire portfolio on March 23rd - the bottom. Posted: 08 Apr 2020 07:53 PM PDT The bottom (so far). Clearly, I fucked up pretty badly. I knew the playbook: don't sell during a panic. I did the one thing that I was certain I shouldn't have done. Consequently, I took a few days to take a step back and analyzed why I didn't follow the 1-step process of not opening your brokerage account. Up until March 23rd, I held Vanguard targeted date funds and DCA'd. I wasn't worried that the world was going to end, and I genuinely believed we'll be back to full steam in 2-3 years. The reason I sold was because that was the point when I internalized that the fund was a mishmash of everything. Still, I was holding a bunch of companies and sectors that I believe would stagnate/collapse in the next 10-20 years. It just didn't sit right with me. Regardless of the countless evidence pointing towards indices being the best for investors, I just cannot reconcile with that fact. There will always be a voice in my head telling me to sell. I realized that the only way I could hold through crises is by actively choosing what was going to be in my portfolio. Is that a personal failure not following the data? Maybe. Can I beat the indices? Certainly not with day/swing trading. However, over a longer time frame, I think I have a good shot. I just wanted to share this with other people. This sub's version of loss porn if you will. Fuck that was a lot of money. PS: one thing I wanted to address on the side. People often talk about how there are these huge teams of analysts from Ivy League schools with PhDs and what not, hence it is impossible to beat them. I disagree with that statement. I went to school with many of them - including the PhD part - and I've worked with a few companies who have hired them for their services. They are far, far, far from infallible. [link] [comments]  |
| The thing which will make the market drop... Posted: 08 Apr 2020 01:57 PM PDT ...will be something you don't expect. Any known quantity won't matter. People dying of the virus won't matter. Bad economic data won't matter. People being out of jobs won't matter. What will cause the next chaos in the market will be something which is currently unexpected and which might emerge. Examples that are plausible tail-end risks to the virus: 1, Italy goes broke and cannot service its debt or will not service its debt. Possible as eurobonds aren't going to happen and they have a huge debt mountain. This would cause a debt spiral which would engulf the entire world and be an absolute financial disaster which dwarfs 2008. Italy could also trigger trying to leave the EU if eurobonds don't happen - public opinion has shifted due to the virus. 2, China vs the west break down of trade/relations. Company valuations are often based on global supply chains. If these break down (which could happen) it means all these blue chip multi-nationals that make up index-trackers suddenly lose a huge amount of potential value. This would cause a stock market collapse. This is possible as the west might hold china responsible for killing millions of people here. There will also be a movement against globalisation with countries being unable to source things from abroad in a crisis. Protectionism and pulling back from globalisation would devastate big multi-nationals. So stop expecting bad unemployment numbers to cause a stock market decline when central banks and governments are pumping in trillions of dollars, pounds, yen and euros. It will be one of these new things which causes the next crash in the market. [link] [comments]  |
| NY Times - Rally driven by FOMO money managers + short sellers Posted: 08 Apr 2020 05:04 PM PDT
What do you think about this take on the market? I have been convinced it has to go back down so I have confirmation bias towards stuff like this that says it is a mirage. [link] [comments]  |
| WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Cause Deep U.S. Contraction, 13% Unemployment Posted: 08 Apr 2020 10:40 PM PDT "Business and academic economists in this month's survey expect, on average, that the unemployment rate will hit 13% in June this year, and still be at 10% in December. The jobless rate was 4.4% in March. Relative to February 2020, they expect employers to cut 14.4 million jobs overall, with about a third of economists predicting the labor-market's low point will be in May this year. Economists predict gross domestic product will contract at an annual rate of 25% in the second quarter. That is a sharp downgrade from the March survey of economists, when they expected GDP to shrink just 0.1% from April to June." Seems like Market is about to rise exponentially. Time for SPY calls. [link] [comments]  |
| The dow today is higher than it was on first day of 2019. How can this possibly be correct? Posted: 08 Apr 2020 10:31 AM PDT January 2nd 2019 (opening of the year), the dow was at 23,058 Today it sits at 23,200. Given what's going on in the world, how the hell can we possibly reconcile the economy being in a better place right now than it was then? [link] [comments]  |
| Disney+ has more than 50M subscribers Posted: 08 Apr 2020 02:53 PM PDT
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| For everyone worried about missing a/the bottom, here is a bit of advice Posted: 08 Apr 2020 10:28 AM PDT As you may or may not have noticed, the markets do not follow any kind of logic or trend at the moment. Whether or not all the unemployment and infection rate is priced in does not matter, for you will not realise if it was or wasn't until about a year after this is all over. You might reasonably wonder "but when do I invest? Is the market going down? Will it be a V-shaped recovery?" and once again the answer is: nobody knows. If someone pretends to know, do not listen to them. During all this uncertainty and stress, I want to give my 2 cents on how to deal with it. I am sure many of you already apply this one way or another, but in my opinion it is not talked about enough. It's a simple way called: pick...that...price Analyze the company you want to invest in, check their balance sheets, PE ratio, management, plans for the future and past stock prices. After you have done that, put a price on what you are willing to pay per share. For example, I will only buy AAPL if they drop to 220. If they don't? I will not be buying and will instead focus my intention on another stock. If they do? Great, I will be buying. If they drop even more? Even greater, this is where DCA becomes an important part of your investment strategy, go in slowly after a share has reached a certain price point. Set these prices, write them down and try your best to not to budge. The most important part of making this work is simple, keep emotion out of it. If you can't handle your portfolio displaying red numbers, log out and log back in after some time has passed. Emotion clouds judgement and the market does not care about you feeling bad about it going up or down, so try your best to remember this. I am well aware that this is easier said than done, but this is what has worked for me and I hope it works for you as well and takes some of the stress off of what can be one hell of a ride in this current market. Best of luck to all of you. [link] [comments]  |
| Axios: Staples refuses to pay landlords for April rents Posted: 08 Apr 2020 08:24 AM PDT Sycanmore (owner of Staples) really taking advantage of the situation here. [link] [comments]  |
| Where was the rampant hyperinflation post-2008? Posted: 08 Apr 2020 12:16 PM PDT I'm seeing a lot of posts from Redditors who have insider knowledge of the upcoming hyperinflation. Some facts:
But CPI doesn't account for REAL inflation!!! Inflation is a specific term. Inflation is a sustained increase in the general price level of goods/services in an economy over time. Inflation means your USD purchasing power is reduced. Note: this has nothing to do with asset price increasing. But this time is different!!! Redditors like to bring up 1920s Germany. A war-torn country struggling to repay its debts. Meanwhile US bond yields are almost negative and at a record low, worldwide investors see the US treasury as a safe haven and the USD remains the world reserve currency. But Fed promised unlimited QE!!! The Fed's main aims are to avoid deflation, maintain liquidity in the financial system and to maintain investor confidence. It really surprises me that despite the huge risk of deflation during a recession, Redditors are instead scared of the complete opposite! Why is deflation bad? 1) consumers avoid purchasing today to buy at a later date at a lower price 2) firms avoid investing today as the real cost of debt increases. Later when the economy is recovering and there is risk of higher inflation, the Fed will reduce their balance sheet. From 2017-2019, their balance sheet decreased from $4.5 to $3.7 trillion. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Apr 2020 03:06 PM PDT In this video Aswath Damodaran breaks down the volatility between March 26 and April 3rd. Looks at the bond default spreads and how they have changed on a daily basis over the past six weeks, and estimates the equity risk premium for the S&P500. Along the way he provides a comparison for the same day to day movements during the 2008 crisis. Probably the best explanation anyone could give us. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Apr 2020 01:58 PM PDT I work in commercial real estate and have been noticing a number of our clients pushing through to close on deals that were negotiated prior to all of this COVID chaos. These are deals for new builds on condos, multifamily developments, retail developments etc. In 2008, for those that were developers that had negotiated their terms and proceeded to close despite the market crash, how do those projects end progressing? Did they fail? Were they just slow to get going? From the perspective of someone merely brokering deals right now, it seems as though this would be a terrible time to continue with closing on a property that realistically will take a 30-50% haircut in the next 12-18 months. Not all buyers are proceeding, and the ones that aren't are citing potential revenue disruptions on for their businesses that will delay real estate expansions, as well as a presumed deflation of already over-priced commercial real estate values. Any other CRE folks seeing any trends? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 09 Apr 2020 12:47 AM PDT If I try to buy options after hours, will it execute at the current ask price at open or at some point tomorrow? I tried at 4:30 EST and they stayed queued. (Not sure this question follows the "rules" sorry but google was only showing results for regular trading, and a Robinhood Reddit thread on the topic was outdated and not completely relevant) [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Apr 2020 01:12 PM PDT |
| Posted: 08 Apr 2020 09:13 PM PDT I got following AAPL MSFT TSLA DIS UBER TWTR O SQ T RCL BA BABA NVDA DAL ABBV CSCO INTC VGT VTI VOO XLE XRT XLF [link] [comments]  |
| Are we currently watching the healthcare bubble burst? Posted: 08 Apr 2020 06:26 PM PDT |
| Posted: 08 Apr 2020 08:38 AM PDT |
| Posted: 09 Apr 2020 02:47 AM PDT We completed a debt analysis for all the airlines and have come to conclusions on the following questions:
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| How do you value $ZM and justify its 1,300 PE ratio? Posted: 09 Apr 2020 02:14 AM PDT |
| Narrative of never being able to time the market Posted: 09 Apr 2020 03:48 AM PDT With every book I read and podcast I listen to the narrative is constantly that you can't time the market and to always hold. In black swan events like this surely people should evaluate the situation and realise that pulling money out of their portfolios to sit in cash/less risky assets could be the right play. I feel like this narrative is making people put their head under the sand and take any form of decision making out of their hands because they assume that their analysis can't be correct vs professional investors. Obviously the timing to get back into the market is a trickier call but any drop in the market will increase their portfolio long term if they buy back in and surely a drop will come... [link] [comments]  |
| What are the different outcomes of tomorrow's oil meeting between Trump, Russia and the Saudis? Posted: 08 Apr 2020 07:29 PM PDT If they agree to a deal, oil production is cut and I assume stocks fly. If they don't, will oil crash, or will it bump a bit anyway from the attention? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Apr 2020 03:30 PM PDT Link to the article on wsj. This was an interesting read. One of the things that they mention is that the company recently raised $1bn in debt at an interest rate of LIBOR + 10%. If you think that is high, they mention here that some potential investors refused to lend money arguing the conditions were not attractive. Jeez, that's tough. To put this in perspective, as per Booking Holdings (BKNG) latest 10-K, the company paid an effective annual interest of 3.2% in 2019, down from 3.4% in 2017. The longer term debt on Booking's financial statements matures in March 2028, and has a fixed 3.55% interest rate. The article doesn't mention the maturity of the new issued debt of Airbnb. If the company goes public, these investors can decide to be compensated by receiving either cash or shares of stock. If they hadn't refused to go public in 2018, they were looking at a valuation in the $50-70bn range. In hindsight is easy to point fingers at people, but still. That was an excellent valuation for a company that was burning cash then (and still is now). Reservations fell 80% in March, from 500,000 a week on March 1st to 100,000 a week at the end of the month. Curious to hear your thoughts. [link] [comments]  |
| FT: Wall Street urges caution as bullish investors rush into recovery bets Posted: 09 Apr 2020 03:03 AM PDT Thoughts?
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/0e9656b7-3693-46d7-b46f-d065e1550e6d [link] [comments]  |
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