Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Technicals Tuesday - Apr 07, 2020 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Technicals Tuesday - Apr 07, 2020
- How messed up is our financial system that in the middle of a global pandemic we are only -5% from April of 2019?
- I can control the stock market with only 2 ETF's
- This rally is a mirage, we are only in the beginning stages of this recession
- BA announces that they are shutting down all production of airplanes - the stock jumps up 20% on the news yesterday.
- Zoom is extremely overvalued at $34B market cap
- In broad strokes, why, just why?
- The key to understanding how to time this market
- PSA: Never hold any of these triple levered short etfs for a long period.
- Did anyone else see that huge SPY drop just now? Dropped about 3 points in one minute. wtf
- Luckin coffee halted?
- Have we reached an era where it's riskier NOT investing in the market?
- What do you exactly look at in Balance Sheets and Income Statments?
- Square(SQ) CEO pledges 1 billion in stocks for pandemic relief - what will happen now?
- $CCL +1300% on 4/9 Calls - Bought Monday 4/6
- When will we see the first 10 trillion dollar market cap company?
- Its too good to believe that its over
- Warning : Edward Jones
- Today's Pre-Market Movers & News [Tuesday, April 7th, 2020]
- SDOW, SPXS, SQQQ
- Are people buying oil in prep for Thursday’s OPEC meeting?
- Target buy prices on stocks
- Thoughts on AMD
- what on earth happened at 16:00?
- Forecast for today, Tuesday 04/07
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Technicals Tuesday - Apr 07, 2020 Posted: 07 Apr 2020 01:07 AM PDT This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on technical analysis (TA), but if TA is not your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against TA here and not in the current post. Some helpful day to day links, including news:
Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions. The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as "priced in"): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price. TA can be useful on any timeframe, both short and long term. Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks If you have questions, please see the following word cloud and click through for the wiki: See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Apr 2020 06:59 AM PDT Seriously how rigged is our stock market. You're telling me people have the same confidence right now in our market as 1 year ago? Recession cancelled! [link] [comments]  |
| I can control the stock market with only 2 ETF's Posted: 07 Apr 2020 01:28 PM PDT I can control the entire stock market with only 2 ETF's. TQQQ and SQQQ. You might be wondering, how? Well it's simple. Every time I purchase TQQQ, the stock market immediately declines. Everytime I purchase SQQQ, the market inclines. It has become evident that I alone, can mitigate a stock market crash by purchasing at least 1 SQQQ a day. Unfortunately, I'll need some funding if I want to do that. No, don't ask me to do any favors for you. Just remember, when the mountain peaks or the valley bows, I have purchased a share. [link] [comments]  |
| This rally is a mirage, we are only in the beginning stages of this recession Posted: 07 Apr 2020 08:23 AM PDT TL;DR at the bottom Hi guys, with the market rallying 20% from its "bottom", many people are expressing the sentiment that we should buy back into the market again because the "fed" or the "government" won't allow stocks to crash. We will for sure see unprecedented actions taken by the fed and the government because they have both the motive and the political capital to enact such policies. However, I think this is a misguided reason to believe the market is currently making its "real" rally. I am not not a permabear nor am I a permabull. I just try to objectively analyze the facts, apply a healthy dose of margin of safety, and then see if my conclusions are actionable. For example, I posted my thesis on why we will enter a serious global economic downturn on Feb 9th 10 days before it happened. At the time we were at the height of the biggest bull market in our history, and I had gotten a lot of attacks on my thesis leading up to me consolidating my thoughts: https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f1fm6y/the_world_economy_will_enter_a_serious_downturn/ I continued adding more thoughts on things like the potential efficacy of Chloroquine 2 weeks before Trump announced it in a press conference and the media picked up on it, the potential collapse of American oil producers before the price war happened, casinos going under, helicopter money, bailouts, etc all before they were announced or the markets priced them in here: https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fede69/continued_thoughts_on_the_global_economic_impact/ And finally I talked about an upcoming inflection point coincidentally moments before Trump first announced Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine and 2 trading days before the "bottom" of the market: https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/fleh7e/incoming_inflection_point_for_general_market/ So I'm perfectly happy to make bearish calls or bullish calls, they are dependent variables of independent and unbiased analysis. I hope I made a reasonable case for why I am not personally biased (although, for the sake of humanity, I do wish for progress and prosperity of course). I think the market rally is largely a mirage, and we are not getting correct pricings. The rally is probably driven by two main sources:
So the capital displacement is relatively simple: If you're seeking shelter in "risk free" investments that has some yields, you're now competing with a buyer (federal reserve) that prints hundreds of billions up to whatever it wants. They're literally squeezing out capital from the finite treasuries. If you want riskier high quality corporate bonds, the fed will be there. If you want even equities, you're going to face competition for them in the future. At least that's what former chairwoman Jenet Yellen recently said about the possibility of expanding their powers to buy equities. So money is getting squeezed into a smaller and smaller relative portion of the financial markets, and the artificial demand is driving yields down and prices up. I could write a whole thread about this, but let's stick with the explanation of price movement. The second main reason for the recent rally is from institutional investors who are incorrectly modeling earnings/yield of equities. So the logic here is: trillions are injected into the economy (fiscal injections), those trillions will become earnings for companies at some multiplier of the original stimulus over x amount of time, and if we add this number to the unstimulated estimated earnings, we can model future earnings. My issue with this model, is on two main assumptions: The first assumption is the length of disruption caused by the threat of this virus. This virus is not going to stop its serious disruption of behavior from economic actors. Especially not in a country like the US where the majority of people have a massive financial disincentive to seek out healthcare. Here's my logic: For months I've been praising the governments and response of South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. With Taiwan being the absolute best at handling the virus. However, I have also been using them as my leading indicators for how the virus will progress and affect economic actors. What I have seen developing lately is not good. Singapore is now calling for a shutdown, after they initially did a herculean job of containing their outbreak. I had hoped that they would develop procedures (that we can copy) needed to run an open economy while the threat of the virus looms in the background. But that is not what has happened. Instead, we are seeing growing numbers of new clusters forming, and quickly getting out of control. They are tightening and shutting down their economy rather than opening up more. This is our leading indicator. A government far more responsible and effective than us is resorting to shutting down. Taiwan is faring better, but only because of their prohibitive ban on almost all foreign travelers (this is obviously devastating to their tourism sector and broader economy). Their economy and society remains open, with many if not most people having hardly any interruptions to their lives (aside from mask wearing). They are one of only 3 countries where all children are still going to school. However, even their economy is faltering as they try to balance the prohibitive actions needed to contain the virus and the economic need to keep things open. They are proposing an unprecedented stimulus/rescue package to bolster their economy. And I think it's a safe assumption that if they ever do open up to foreign travelers again, especially with covid19 having proliferated as it already has, then they will have to deal with massive outbreak clusters all over their island. South Korea, which has probably the relatable and relevant model for us to copy, has recently extended its social distance campaign. South Korea is a far larger nation than Singapore or Taiwan. They have a climate similar to Seattle/New York. They had a major outbreak in Deagu but didn't shut their country down. They never even banned Chinese travelers, yes, they had Chinese tourists in their country while the outbreak was happening. They were among the first to widely use Hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine as a treatment for Covid19. They had among the lowest fatality rates. They contained their outbreak without shutting the whole country down. Even South Korea can't truly return to normal and open their economy up. So why, in our incredible American exceptionalism hubris, and far less competent leaders, do we believe we're going to come anywhere close to normalcy in the near future? Let's look at the next assumption, that fiscal stimulus would end up as earnings for companies. There's no doubt some will end up as earnings, but only a small fraction of what is being modeled by those on Wall Street. The average American don't even have $1000 in emergency funds, do we expect them to return to their normal consumption habits when they risk having hospital bills multiples of $1000 just from walking past the wrong person? Do you think Americans, as much as they love to spend, aren't going to put some of that stimulus check in their emergency funds rather than contribute it to the earning of some companies? Sure, there will be some "forced" spending of the money (food and necessities), but if anyone is modeling the multiplier effect from previous data, then they really don't appreciate how different this virus makes things. Even in the GFC, laid off people didn't really worry about the heightened threat of being hospitalized. Finally, some investors believe the Fed and the government literally will do anything to keep the numbers up. If this is true, you should be buying silver (or gold), not stocks. Monetary actions can be reversed relatively easily. They are far more dynamic tools. Fiscal actions are not. You put money in the hands of spenders, that money is gonna circulate. And you really don't have an easy way of reversing that. If we think the government is going to keep handing out stimulus checks, grants to businesses, and other fiscal stimulus, then the inflation predicted from the GFC will come true for this crisis. The fall out of inflation will be difficult to truly understand. But I do think inflation will be disruptive enough to the economy that inflation hedge assets will outperform other assets at least in the short term. For example, if inflation goes to 5%, who's going to lend to companies for less than inflation? With costlier debt, equity yield goes down, and again, what investor wants yields less than inflation? Inflation is going to cause all kinds of disruptions. I think the disruptions will come down to less liquidity (credit will vanish with uncertain inflation) and higher economic friction (less efficiency). So if the response to why the market has to go up is continuous fiscal (and some monetary) actions to prop up spending and earnings, then the question is how will fiscal actions be reversed? How do we get that money out after things go back to "normal"? I think if we see equities rise from here, it'll be reflective of inflation rather than inflation-adjusted earnings. Silver would be the play here. I have a lot more thoughts on this, especially on the time it takes to turn the gears of the financial system and why the inertia is moving us deeper into global recession, not out of it, but I'm running out of time and must end here. TL;DR this is a fake rally, and if anyone really expects prices to continue rallying, buy silver instead [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Apr 2020 09:39 AM PDT Is it worth investing in a market where this is a reality? Has this market exposed itself as a confidence game not tethered at all to reality or major company specific problems? [link] [comments]  |
| Zoom is extremely overvalued at $34B market cap Posted: 07 Apr 2020 04:31 AM PDT Was reading about Zoom (ZM), it's a simple conferencing app that's worth more than General Motors or Ford. It's like a 1999 dot-com bubble stock. It's been banned by SpaceX and New York public schools over privacy concerns [link] [comments]  |
| In broad strokes, why, just why? Posted: 07 Apr 2020 07:44 AM PDT It's my first post but i lurk all the investing subs for a couple years now. Maybe it will sound funny but I have a master in economics, i invest for the last year and I just don't understand what's going on. The economy halted, nobody is buying anything (no cars, no RE, no cinema, no cruise, no hotels, no softwares, not eating out, no travel, no new PC, no new TV etc). Companies are laying people left and right, downsizing their work force, they don't get their products from China, they are not selling anything (from services, to utilities, to products). Workers won't pay rent, will not be able to pay mortgage, debts will be pilling up, And then you have BA climbing +6%, hilton going up +7%, Sedg +9%, Planet fitness +8% etc. the stock market is green like a summer lawn. Did I miss anything? How can people invest into a company that is just closed for business for we don't know how long.... There is so much uncertainty in the world and VIX is down 3 or $5. China is lying through the teeth, won't be able to ramp up production for the next months. And in the States everyone is happy with 1200 USD that will cover rent and food for one month. I know that nobody can time the market, time in the market is better than timing the market. DCA and ETFs are the way to go but why? Why everyone is so optimistic? If this is a bully rally then it is a very long one. [link] [comments]  |
| The key to understanding how to time this market Posted: 07 Apr 2020 09:53 AM PDT Just use all conventional wisdom and then do the exact opposite of what you believe will happen. [link] [comments]  |
| PSA: Never hold any of these triple levered short etfs for a long period. Posted: 07 Apr 2020 09:36 AM PDT They are built to go to zero. The market (QQQ) is still down 15% yet SQQQ is now lower than it's low in late February. They are fine for trading in and out of, but they will eat your lunch every time if you hold over a long duration. I've seen them thrown out as a hedge and it's awful advice unless for a quick trade. [link] [comments]  |
| Did anyone else see that huge SPY drop just now? Dropped about 3 points in one minute. wtf Posted: 07 Apr 2020 12:53 PM PDT Its dropping even more as I type this out. what the heck is going on? JPows gonna pump it up after hours, anyways,. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Apr 2020 06:36 AM PDT Anyone have any info on this? I got a few puts a couple days ago dont know if I've set fire to it or not. [link] [comments]  |
| Have we reached an era where it's riskier NOT investing in the market? Posted: 07 Apr 2020 01:53 AM PDT I'm talking about the S&P, NASDAQ (indexes). It has become clear to me that governments now simply won't allow a market to behave naturally and are willing to do literally whatever it takes to keep the market propped up. Back in the day Presidents and the federal reserve would only intervene when things got dire, now it seems the first sign of panic in the market and the government swoops in with their freshly printed trillions to save it. They're not allowing the free market to behave freely. At this rate this crash / bear market will be over and done with in just 3 months which is absolutely extraordinary considering we're facing the worst global crisis since world war fucking 2! So even in the span of a few months you're already losing money by not investing... In the years before bear markets could easily last a year or two (2000 lasted 631 days, 2008 lasted 354 days) and this one is on track to recover in just 90 days... Fuck me we didn't even retest the lows... That is unheard of in a crash / bear market. I guess what I'm really saying is if you invest in the stock market (primarily the US market), the government won't allow you to lose money, even in the short term. So convince me not to remortgage my house and invest in the stock market? After all I have the support of the government who won't let me not make profit... So what's the catch? [link] [comments]  |
| What do you exactly look at in Balance Sheets and Income Statments? Posted: 07 Apr 2020 12:48 PM PDT Hi ! So I am trying to analyse DAL vs Southwest So usually first I see the overall assets v.s. liabilities . I see both these airlines have greater assets than liabilites. So that's good ! Secondly I look at the debt. Right now LUV is at 819,000 current debt and 1,846,000 long term debt. Hmmm Delta is at 2,287,000 current debt and 8,873,000 long term debt... Hmm so Delta doesn't look that good overall (Am I right??) In the income statement I look at Delta and they have been a positive profit the last few months so has Southwest. That's good news for now But what else should I be looking at? [link] [comments]  |
| Square(SQ) CEO pledges 1 billion in stocks for pandemic relief - what will happen now? Posted: 07 Apr 2020 02:29 PM PDT CEO of Square pledges $1 billion in Square stock to Coronavirus pandemic relief. How will this impact the future of Square and it's stock reaction to this news? I've been following SQ as my first stock to invest in and I'd love to hear any advice! [link] [comments]  |
| $CCL +1300% on 4/9 Calls - Bought Monday 4/6 Posted: 07 Apr 2020 10:35 AM PDT My folio got shredded in SPY puts from $5600 --> $4700 --> $2400 The market had no reason to go up, but it was, and i was getting BTFO, so if the market was going to be retarded, then i was going to be EVEN MORE retarded. So i YOLOD my $2400 into $CCL FD's and here we are lol [link] [comments]  |
| When will we see the first 10 trillion dollar market cap company? Posted: 07 Apr 2020 12:01 PM PDT When will we see the first 10 trillion dollar market cap company? Who will it be? My money is on Microsoft. [link] [comments]  |
| Its too good to believe that its over Posted: 07 Apr 2020 07:25 AM PDT Dont fall for it, we still have difficult weeks ahead of us, even if the cases of the corna begin to slow down we still have not felt the consequences of this pandemic in the economy, its TOO early to tell. Long term will be ok, short term maybe its a good time to sell. Maybe all of what i mentioned has 0 impact on the market, but i highly doubt it. HOLD TIGHT BROTHERS AND STAY STRONG in this economic crush that is coming [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Apr 2020 07:47 AM PDT I made the mistake of investing with Edward Jones. I had over 8K with them, over 6 years and I barley made over 1K. Their hidden fees are high especially when you go to sell. I finally decided to pull the plug today after realizing my 6 year mistake. I'm being charged $1,400 on fees on top of my loss due to the market being down. Any new investors that think going with a brokerage is the SAFER option, you're wrong. [link] [comments]  |
| Today's Pre-Market Movers & News [Tuesday, April 7th, 2020] Posted: 07 Apr 2020 05:34 AM PDT Good morning traders and investors of the r/stocks sub! Welcome to Tuesday. Here are your pre-market movers & news this AM-Today's Top Headlines for Tuesday, April 7th, 2020
STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:(CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!)YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!)TODAY'S MARKET MAP:(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!)YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!)THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:($SMPL $CONN $GBX $LEVI $ANGO $RPM $SGH $LNN $MSM $SJR $WDFC $NTIC $EXFO $CAAP $SLP $TLGT) (CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:() ([CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!]())N/A. EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!)(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!)(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!)YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!)TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR!)THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING TICKERS:
THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:(source: cnbc.com)
DISCUSS!What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at r/stocks? I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Tuesday, April 7th, 2020! :)[link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Apr 2020 10:23 AM PDT INVERSE ETFs. As I'm sure many of you looking at this post are in the same situation as I am. These past two days have took a tole on me as all my positions are inverse. I've taken all emotion and prediction out of judgement at this point, but how much longer are you willing to let it ride? Also, must factor in the possibility of a deal being reached on Thursday for aid to small businesses. Discussion welcome [link] [comments]  |
| Are people buying oil in prep for Thursday’s OPEC meeting? Posted: 07 Apr 2020 09:32 AM PDT Will OPEC meeting result in oil stocks going up? What do you think? Should we be buying oil now? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Apr 2020 12:29 PM PDT Does anyone care to share their target buy prices on any the following stocks (bonus points if you add how you got to that price): V MSFT DIS AAPL KO JNJ O PFE COST T [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Apr 2020 09:21 AM PDT I bought AMD end of feb for $42.72 a share, currently up 20% at $49.41/share. Unsure whether to sell or hold at this point? Tl;Dr - Is AMD a hold or sell? [link] [comments]  |
| what on earth happened at 16:00? Posted: 07 Apr 2020 07:52 AM PDT All major indexes, especially the french one started a fall at 16:00 local time and it seems like it will go on. EDIT: UTC 14:00 [link] [comments]  |
| Forecast for today, Tuesday 04/07 Posted: 07 Apr 2020 05:35 AM PDT The bulls are back and the markets are soaring upward. After a couple of days of declines in new cases, optimism that the worse has passed is fueling the stock market. After yesterday's massive gains, futures are pointing to another spike in stock prices. The rally from the USA continued in Asia, as most Asian stocks were in the green. South Korea and Japan saw a 2% gain, while Chinese stock composites rose from 2 to 3%. Europe is also all green, with major indexes up around 3% as of 8 AM ET, when this article is being written. US futures were relatively stable during last night. But as the new day started, specifically from 1 30AM ET to 6 30AM ET, there was significant buying going on in the market. In this time frame the Dow futures gained over 4$ or over 1000 points. In the last hour and a half, the futures gave back some of these gains. I point out this move because it implies institutional buying which was apparent even yesterday in the last 30 minutes when buying volumes ticked up. The outbreak in Europe looks like it has passed its peak as more and more countries report declines in new cases. In the USA there is also a slowing down of new cases, as States report the similar or declining numbers for 3, 4 days now. At the same time President Trumps is talking about another stimulus package aimed at more cash payments to individuals, which could boost spending after the crises. It is still too early to speculate on this, since we haven't even received the first checks, but after you make that promise publicly it is hard to back pedal especially in an election year. For today's trade I recommend starting to shop around good companies like Boeing that have been pummeled to the ground by this crises and investing money in quality stocks. I would stay away from airlines, since we do not know what the Government's stake in those companies will be for the relief that they will get. Banks are also good investments, while Apple is a good technology stock. Good luck! [link] [comments]  |
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