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    Sunday, April 5, 2020

    OPEC meeting for Monday has just been postponed as Saudi and Russia tensions flair Investing

    OPEC meeting for Monday has just been postponed as Saudi and Russia tensions flair Investing


    OPEC meeting for Monday has just been postponed as Saudi and Russia tensions flair

    Posted: 04 Apr 2020 09:32 AM PDT

    Stanford test for coronavirus immunity in California ‘hours’ from approval

    Posted: 04 Apr 2020 06:22 PM PDT

    The Stanford blood test is just "hours" away from federal approval and could allow people to begin to return to work, Newsom said. The tests are "serological," and could determine whether someone has developed antibodies to the coronavirus.

    https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article241774351.html

    submitted by /u/DrunkEngr
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    SCMP: As many as 205 million Chinese workers cannot find jobs or are unable to return to their previous posts, according to one analyst

    Posted: 05 Apr 2020 01:44 AM PDT

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3078251/coronavirus-chinas-unemployment-crisis-mounts-nobody-knows?utm_source=Pico&utm_campaign=26a6ebb205-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_04_03_10_44&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_aa6d5ab160-26a6ebb205-165461233

    Some of the paragraphs from the article:

    In the United States, data on the number of Americans filing their first claim for unemployment benefits each week offers a relatively up-to-date reading of the national jobless situation. But in China, jobless indicators are released on a monthly or even quarterly basis, and cover only part of the workforce.

    The most widely cited figure, the surveyed urban unemployment rate issued by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), jumped to an all-time high of 6.2 per cent in January and February combined, up from 5.2 per cent in December. This roughly equated to an additional 5 million people thrown out of work.

    Another government metric, the urban registered jobless rate, is published quarterly and measures only the urban residents willing to file tedious reams of paperwork to register as being unemployed. This indicator has been stable at a rate of around 4 per cent for years, with few fluctuations over economic cycles.

    Due to the lack of official data covering China's entire workforce, economists and analysts have started to rely on private surveys, online job listings, anecdotal reports and even indicators such as subway rides in major cities to get a clearer view of the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the unemployment situation in China.

    Beijing's challenge is particularly severe given the lack of an adequate social safety net in China.

    Unemployment benefits are small and reserved for only a few – a maximum of 2.5 million people claimed unemployment benefits in each quarter over the past decade, in a country of almost 1.4 billion.

    "Rural migrant workers who lost their paid work are generally not included in government data," Lu said. "Many of them may find it hard to maintain their previous living standards. Many migrant workers will have to go back to their farmland to support a basic lifestyle."

    TL;DR: China is under reporting unemployment data and unemployed people don't really have a social safety net.

    submitted by /u/COMPUTER1313
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    When someone like Jeff Bezos sells 4 billion in shares, where is that cash kept.

    Posted: 04 Apr 2020 10:51 AM PDT

    I heard that a few months ago Jeff Bezos sold around 4 billion dollars worth of Amazon shares. I know that alot if this money went to funding his space company and other things, but I am wondering how someone can store millions or billion in cash. I know that U.S banks only ensure 250k, so when Bezos did this, where was the money kept?

    This is my first post, so I'm not sure if there us a better place to share it.

    submitted by /u/jimmothy_theunicorn
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    Were there any stocks that went up during the great depression?

    Posted: 05 Apr 2020 01:04 AM PDT

    If so what were they?

    submitted by /u/fax_it_to_me
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    SPCE is the biggest DOGSHIT company I have ever researched. It is up there with Boeing on levels of shitness.

    Posted: 05 Apr 2020 12:17 AM PDT

    SPCE is the biggest DOGSHIT company I have ever researched. It is up there with Boeing on levels of shitness.

    It is a paper company, all they have is one shitty space plane that doesn't even go into space. It only experiences weightlessness for 4 minutes before coming back down to Earth. They have zero plan for supersonic/hypersonic travel, which is where the hype for SPCE is. Even if they did, it would take TENS OF BILLIONS of dollars to get something up and running. Running shitty space tourism flights won't make enough revenue.

    They even stripped Virgin Orbit out of SPCE. So you aren't even investing in their rocket company anymore.

    Its an utter dog shittler company. Its worth $4 at most.

    submitted by /u/Teffub200
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    Question about Zoom investment. Some DD

    Posted: 04 Apr 2020 11:19 PM PDT

    The CFO of Zoom (ZM) appears to get a 11,067 shares of stock per month and sells them immediately, leaving her/him with 0 shares in the company.

    10/18/19 Kelly Steckelberg CFO Sell 11,067 $65.60 TOTAL: $725,995.20 -- Remaining: 0

    11/18/19 Kelly Steckelberg CFO Sell 11,067 $69.90 TOTAL: $773,583.30 -- Remaining: 11,067

    [Not sure how 11/18 is possible unless she got double shares that month]

    12/18/19 Kelly Steckelberg CFO Sell 11,067 $67.23 TOTAL: $744,034.41 -- Remaining: 0

    1/21/20 Kelly Steckelberg CFO Sell 11,067 $76.05 TOTAL: $841,645.35 -- Remaining: 0

    2/19/20 Kelly Steckelberg CFO Sell 11,067 $102.66 TOTAL: $1,136,138.22 -- Remaining 0

    3/19/20 Kelly Steckelberg CFO Sell 11,067 $126.58 TOTAL:$1,400,860.86 -- Remaining 0

    Source: https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/ZM/insider-trades/

    So the CFO has been selling 100% of her stock as soon as she apparently gets a refresh on her options. This has occurred since before the corona virus despite the price increasing each month (except one time since 10/19). This doesn't show much faith in the company (Or she just needs a couple new lambos each month). Is this normal behavior? Is it also normal for a CFO to make on average ~1mil per month on stock options? Also the CEO has sold over 50% of her stock options in the past month.

    I just flipped my long in zoom from long to short, and I'm slightly in the red, so I'm obviously looking to confirm my bias. But with all the privacy/security worries related to China recently, and the 160% increase in stock price within 16 weeks, I don't want to cut my losses yet.

    TL:DR: Is it normal for CFO's to get 1mil in stock options per month and sell them immediately like the CFO of Zoom does?

    Edited for Source

    submitted by /u/NoPantsNoCare
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    COVID-19: 10 Investing rules in this bear market – conservative way of deploying your savings for long term returns [avoid reading if you are a short term speculator]

    Posted: 04 Apr 2020 04:18 PM PDT

    After having spent over 10 years working for the most prestigious names in the financial industry and having witnessed first hand two large financial stress periods (the Global Financial Crisis and the European Debt Crisis) here are my ten suggestions you may potentially consider while investing

    https://bankeronwheels.com/covid-19-investing-in-bear-market-crash-bottom/

    1. Buy gradually on the way down

    If you have directly or indirectly prepared for a period of financial stress and have available cash you may consider starting investing now. A good strategy is to build rules and stick to them – either based on certain index levels e.g. S&P 500 at 2500 invest 20% of savings, 2300 another 20% etc. or based on timing (slicing every few weeks since we have no clarity which way the market may go and when it will bottom out)

    2. Do not chase an upward trend in a bear market

    One of the common mistakes we see is people chasing upward trends because of FOMO – Fear of Missing Out (when stock market recovers for a few days giving hope of long term gains). It takes more courage to buy according to predefined rules which often means buying when everything is gloomy and stocks lose massively. But in the long term it pays off. Do not be tempted by rebounds that may prove short-lived

    3. Do not try to time the market

    Even the best investors struggle with market timing. In fact most hedge funds (even the most prestigious ones) made substantial losses in the few past weeks.

    The market can turn rapidly both ways and while you may avoid some bad days avoiding just a few good ones can be extremely detrimental to your long term performance as illustrated by a study done by Fidelity.

    It is extremely risky to use leverage today since additional debt implies you must be correct on timing

    4. Invest, do not speculate

    You may not get spectacular 300-400% returns but your money will be relatively safe if you base your decisions on sound financial statements and diversify. ETFs are a great way to invest in indices without taking idiosyncratic risk (e.g. Luckin Coffee (see right) recently dropped 80% in one day on uncovered fraud – as Warren Buffett says "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked").

    Ask yourself the question – am I more qualified than a professional investor to predict which industry player may outperform the rest of the market? Do I know how the landscape post crisis will look like? Even if you suspect knowing first order effects are you sure of the second and higher order effect (to Nicholas Taleb's point)?

    5. Avoid binary outcomes

    Each crisis has its own most vulnerable industries where outcomes can be binary – in 2008 some Banks went out of business and as an investor you may have lost everything. The Coronavirus crisis has other prime candidates for such outcomes, airlines can be nationalised and hotel/tourism industry players can go bankrupt should the distress last longer. You want to avoid these investments until there is more clarity on consumer confidence

    6. Look for financially resilient firms

    If you do invest in single names, do not believe blindly in potentially meaningless dividend yields based on past data unless it has been confirmed by the management after incorporating all the outlook related to Covid-19. Instead look at balance sheets with low debt and build-in resilience (cash). These firms may outperform and even acquire weaker competitors in the current environment

    7. Cash is King

    Ray Dalio now infamously said a couple of months ago that 'Cash is Trash'. While he is one of the best thinkers in Finance the remark was badly timed. Even in the most conservative scenarios keep some reserves. This is primarily a health crisis and while an economic crisis unfolds having a safety net is paramount. Additional unforeseen tail risks always exists

    8. Diversify in other assets including currencies, commodities and high quality debt products

    It is difficult to predict which countries may relatively outperform. Keep your portfolio diversified geographically (e.g. Asia, Europe, US) and product-wise potentially including commodities like Gold that may outperform in low real rates / high inflation environments. Consider very high quality debt products (Treasuries or Investment Grade Debt)

    9. Stay informed but remain cautious

    And adjust your strategies accordingly. But be very careful with financial experts and consensus – when you see opinions converging usually something else will happen

    10. Duration of the coronavirus pandemic is key

    The risks are still skewed to the downside. While there is an attractive discount to peak market values and positive catalysts may materialise (most pharmas are working on Coronavirus vaccines and mitigating drugs) the time it takes and the change of behaviour will alter the markets significantly. The impact on people's health even when cured and society at large is at this stage highly uncertain. Stay safe and healthy! [Read this post about potential way out]

    submitted by /u/bankeronwheels
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    REIT Stocks (ex NRZ, NYMT, TWO) down at least 80% across industry from peak and down Friday 30% but all maintain strong buy ratings and among 100 Most Popular on Robinhood.

    Posted: 04 Apr 2020 06:19 AM PDT

    Why Mortgage REITs are plunging Friday

    Despite three day market rally last week REIT stocks are at their lowest ever. For some companies margin calls aren't being met and for most dividends are being cut or stopped altogether.

    With this in mind this could either be one of the best long opportunities in the post coronavirus market or one of the first industries to collapse.

    Sentiment among investors on the potential of these stocks is most likely shifting even now but why do REIT stocks maintain such a positive forecast?

    submitted by /u/AeroMechPV
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    Denmark to ease Corona-restrictions tomorrow

    Posted: 05 Apr 2020 02:22 AM PDT

    Just in today news of Denmarks approach to the Corona virus. They will ease the restrictions as of tomorrow.

    What does this mean as an investor? Well for me it gives me a bit of FOMO-feel on the long side. Honestly this might be the new flow of news we see now, country after country reducing the restrictions.

    What do you guys think?

    Source: https://www.berlingske.dk/politik/berlingske-erfarer-mette-frederiksen-paa-vej-med-forsigtig-genaabning-af

    submitted by /u/Tyngast
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    US and Canada discuss putting tariffs on Saudi and Russian oil

    Posted: 04 Apr 2020 09:59 AM PDT

    Complete List of Publicly Traded Companies Receiving Aid During Corona ?

    Posted: 05 Apr 2020 01:40 AM PDT

    Where can I find this info ?

    submitted by /u/badbaddoc
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    If you were “lucky” enough to have sold before this crash, what would your strategy be?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2020 09:59 PM PDT

    My margin rate is about 1.25% with IBKR. Why shouldn't I go long the index or blue chips on margin?

    Posted: 05 Apr 2020 03:26 AM PDT

    Say I start buying on margin now, gradually going to 25%. My portfolio would have to fall more 50% (more like 70%) from where it is already before getting a margin call. Is there something I'm missing? Am I miscalculating?

    Offer me some advice before I go on margin!

    submitted by /u/Fire_Lord_Zukko
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    Why is no one talking about $SAVE

    Posted: 04 Apr 2020 08:19 PM PDT

    I've looked through their balance sheet and they are in a good position to weather out this pandemic. They aren't the most popular airline but smart business model

    submitted by /u/cgo1234567
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    What's the benefit in buying BRK.B over S&P 500 ETF?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2020 06:55 AM PDT

    Is it because BRK.B is expected to follow the investment of Warren buffet and is expected to beat S&P 500 consistently in the long term?

    submitted by /u/mrcet007
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    Which cruise lines are you buying?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2020 06:20 PM PDT

    I got some money to play with and I'm looking at everything that is on sale. The Cruise Line industry obviously has taken a huge hit but which ones have a better chance of a rebound?

    Personally I think CCL looks the worst but what about NCLH and RCL?

    Also there's this to consider

    Edit: All the backlash here to the idea of buying cruise stocks convinces me that I should indeed buy. Thanks guys!

    submitted by /u/bass_putter
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    What are your favorite finance, investing, Wall Street, etc. movies/TV shows?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2020 06:14 PM PDT

    How the hell to REIT balance sheets work?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2020 05:35 PM PDT

    I'm looking through a balance sheet of a smallish private REIT and I have no idea what it means.

    It's very different from other non real estate companies because in this case, the retained earnings have been negative for the last 10 years because of depreciation and renovations to properties over the years. So the value of the company goes down every year because the shareholder equity keeps declining.

    They also have very little cash because I assume the distribute a lot of it to investors but I can't tell find out how much because retained earnings are a mess and useless.

    Can someone explain how to find out if a REIT is making money as they say they do?

    submitted by /u/ronnyYaland
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    What's Going on in the Credit Markets?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2020 05:56 PM PDT

    So the Fed has gained quite a bit of attention lately with 1) UQE (unlimited quant easing) and 2) buying ETFs to prop up markets. What happens if the Fed keeps buying up troubled assets in the market? Where does it eventually end? Because correct me if I'm wrong, but they would at some point have to sell those assets back to the market.

    Back in September as many of you remember they quickly intervened in the repo markets which came as a surprise. Barring the Coronavirus, and the real impact from that on the economy, are the credit markets absolute shit and should we be worried, or is Big Dick Daddy Fed just going to buy everything up a tuck it away and pretend it never happened?

    submitted by /u/Potstick3rs
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    Possibility of a rally in the week of april 12-17

    Posted: 04 Apr 2020 11:51 PM PDT

    Gilead's results will most likely surface on Monday of that week and we've had some amazing news from the company over the weekend on compassionate usage for over 140k patients who are severely ill. Primary end point for severe cases was april 3rd and compassionate usage was revived for wide usage on april 4th, which means that the results from the study were most likely positive. Their next primary end point for mild cases is this upcoming friday. Second factor is that Gilead has ramped up production to extreme levels which shows that they've seen remarkable efficacy for this drug and expect immediate FDA approval. In case you're not familiar with Remdesivir, it is perhaps the most potent wide-spectrum antiviral ever made (with nanomolar potency across a range of viruses). Safety profile from the ebola clinical trials shows that the drug does not have any intense side effects. Expect short term rallies as markets will react to this drug, which seems to be a good treatment (and most likely the first legitimate fda approved therapy). These rallies may be further enhanced if oil talks go well and/or new york cases begin to peak.

    submitted by /u/veritasinvestments
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    Nonconforming Loan Packages trading at $0.39 of $1 - where to buy them?

    Posted: 05 Apr 2020 01:17 AM PDT

    Two days ago the CEO of Hercules investments, upon being asked what he will be looking to buy in this economy right now, said that they're seeing some non-conforming loan packages trading at .29 or .39 cents of a dollar. What are these packages and where to buy them?

    submitted by /u/ChiefNegotiator
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    How to buy specific shares with my Fidelity UK ISA? Am I missing something?

    Posted: 05 Apr 2020 03:27 AM PDT

    I was looking to invest in specific shares (e.g. $KO) but a search of investments doesn't bring it. Is it possible to do this?

    submitted by /u/jhcooper_7
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    Who are the best and worst YouTube investors

    Posted: 04 Apr 2020 04:49 PM PDT

    Personally I'm a fan of Joseph Carlson and can't stand Financial Education what do you guys think?

    submitted by /u/MzHolo
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