Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Tesla cutting all employee salaries. Expecting a reflection I the market tomorrow.
- Dow ends day in red despite starting day 900+ points up
- TAL education group, a $33 bln chinese education platform plunges 20% on disclosure of fraudulent sales figures
- S&P 500 now up 25.8% from bottom. DOW nearly 30%
- 2001 and 2008 investors ? What are your crazy trading stories ?
- Howard Marks Memo: market movement during previous financial crises.
- The Case for a Severe Bear Market in the Coming Months - A CPA Auditor's Perspective
- Volume Now vs Past
- Some early data on the impact to $BYND from COVID-19
- Reuters: WeWork sues SoftBank for dropping $3 billion tender offer
- Federal Reserve Unlimited QE & Market Rebound
- 2000 vs 2008 vs 2020
- “This is not a light switch that we can just flick on and everything goes back to normal,” Gov. Andrew Cuomo said. Commentary on how the US economy gets back to work.
- US Crude Oil Inventories and Seevol Cushing Storage Report in 1.5hr
- Premarket stock values
- What are your thoughts on the OPEC meeting Thursday?
- How can I determine if a company is cash-positive?
- How Can Tesla Say They Aren't Changing Their Financial Forecast - Then Furlough Their Employees Days Later?
- Current bear market rally is significantly supported by 2 days of major short squeezes, basically a technically led rally. CTA's are jumping out of their short positions (hence the squeeze... gain in equities). A growing number of investment houses warn that this rally is very likely temporary.
- $NFLX: Stay-at-home appears to be extending Netflix's lead:
- Huge sell block at EOD SPY
- Italy and Spain flattening their curves should have no bearing on the S&P (because America isn't even close)
- People shouldn't correlate pure fundamentals to an arbitrary stock market value
- Different values for the same ticker symbol
- The yield curve was inverting before corona, when is the real crash coming?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 08 Apr 2020 05:13 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tesla cutting all employee salaries. Expecting a reflection I the market tomorrow. Posted: 07 Apr 2020 08:38 PM PDT US salaries being reduced 30% for Vice Presidents and above, 20% for Directors and above, and 10% for everyone else. Expecting reality to set in the market this week. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dow ends day in red despite starting day 900+ points up Posted: 07 Apr 2020 01:16 PM PDT What do y'all make of this? It was quite interesting to see the Dow slide 600, then go back up, then lose at the end of the day. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 07 Apr 2020 05:58 PM PDT TAL Education Group ADRs (TAL) - plunged in after-hours trading Tuesday after the Chinese education company disclosed a case of apparent sales fraud by an employee. The company said in a statement that it "discovered irregularities and violations of the Company's business conduct and internal control policies by an employee in the Company's newly introduced 'Light Class' business," during a routine audit. The company "suspects that the employee of question conspired with external vendors to wrongly inflate 'Light Class' sales by forging contracts and other documentations," according to the statement. TAL said "Light Class" sales accounted for approximately 3% to 4% of the company's total estimated revenues for the fiscal year ended Feb. 29. TL:DR Stop it, get some help. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| S&P 500 now up 25.8% from bottom. DOW nearly 30% Posted: 07 Apr 2020 06:52 AM PDT Do Bull Traps in the past go up that much? Genuine question? I've been bearish, but this rally is starting to break my belief, at this rate we'll be at ATH by June lol. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2001 and 2008 investors ? What are your crazy trading stories ? Posted: 08 Apr 2020 04:59 AM PDT Just compiling crazy stories of 2001 and 2008 1- A coworker was trading heavy margin in 2001 and got wiped out and owed his broker 80k when the bubble burst. I think he said he was trading aol stock at the time 2- I personally was trading margin on Apple stock during the 2008 crash and it wiped me out, luckily I had a stop loss and only lost 12k of equity What are your stories ? I recovered a few years later (high paying job and big savings) and came back in the market and made 3-4 times what I lost [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Howard Marks Memo: market movement during previous financial crises. Posted: 07 Apr 2020 11:25 PM PDT 2001-2002
2007-2009
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/calibrating.pdf "In my opinion, the difference between most people's positive and negative views is likely to stem largely from their innate biases, and thus the data points they choose to overweight." Its possible people who were fully invested going into February of 2020 are the most eager for a V-shaped recovery, and people who were prudent enough to be in cash are more willing to consider a future retesting of previous lows. Uncertainty reigns supreme right now. We should have been open to the possibility, regardless of probability, of a financial crisis worse than 2008. Now we should be willing to concede that the market may have further to fall as new economic data comes in. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Case for a Severe Bear Market in the Coming Months - A CPA Auditor's Perspective Posted: 07 Apr 2020 12:30 PM PDT Yes I'm stating the obvious, there's a bear market coming. However I've only seen technical analysis theories for a downturn in the near future, but I haven't seen facts based on financial statements. As a value investor and up until recently, a public auditor at a big 4 accounting firm, here's why I think we'll be seeing a 40-50% downturn from our pre-pandemic highs in the S&P. The factors I list below I highly doubt are priced in, at the exception of #4. Disclaimer: I am not making predictions for tomorrow, next week or next month, but more towards the medium-term (next few quarters). The post is intended to educate people on accounting losses that aren't obvious to the average retail trader. Assumptions
Financial Statement Impacts in Q1 and Q2 2020:
I see people stating that stocks are forward-looking and that's why the market has been going up. Why should a business lose half it's value for only being shut a few months? You're partially right. However this pandemic might only last a few months, but the losses incurred in these can wipe-out years worth of net income, especially in stocks with low-margins and high fixed costs. Airlines, hotels and cruises are extreme cases where 10+ years of equity is getting eliminated in a few months, but many other businesses are in the same situation in the coming months. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 08 Apr 2020 05:21 AM PDT Hi all, I know volume is somewhat irrelevant for our analysis but every time I open a chart on a stock, I realise the stock's volume is not at all comparable to what it was verified in the financial crisis. Obviously we are still in early stages and we don't know how severe this year is going to be, but in late Feb / early Mar investors were selling everything, regardless of the underlying fundamentals. For this reason I'd expect a higher volume than what we have been seeing so far. So I quickly gathered monthly data since Jan 1st 2000. Here are the top 10 volume months for the three major indices:
Again, this is not relevant for our analysis, but I still find interesting to discover that the fastest 20% drawdown in history had a lower volume than events like the 2008 crisis. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Some early data on the impact to $BYND from COVID-19 Posted: 08 Apr 2020 04:24 AM PDT Analyst checks at Credit Suisse confirm Beyond Meat's Foodservice channel sales (~1/2 of revenues) have declined dramatically, with 30-35% declines at QSRs and nearly 70% declines in casual dining. Retail sales however (other 1/2 of revenue) jumped 500% by late March as stay-at-home orders likely caused short-term pantry-loading, although this may normalize in April. Anecdotally, smaller grocery chains appear to be running out of BYND products as distributors prioritize inventory for higher volume grocery chains. Overall, BYND's sales shift from Foodservices to Retail during COVID-19 will be a net negative to revenue, but also hurt margins because of significantly higher costs shifting inventory out of the Foodservice channel. The pandemic will also undoubtedly delay BYND's growth plans in Europe as retailers now give much more of their merchandise space to top-sellers instead of newcomers, so consumer trial will fall below management's initial expectations. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Reuters: WeWork sues SoftBank for dropping $3 billion tender offer Posted: 07 Apr 2020 03:32 PM PDT
The only winners in this fight will be the lawyers, as both companies have quite a bit of I.O.U's. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Federal Reserve Unlimited QE & Market Rebound Posted: 07 Apr 2020 07:07 PM PDT If you take a look at the Federal Reserve link below, you'll notice that massive QE started the week of March 11th. Between March 12th and April 1st the Fed purchase 1.5T worth of assets. The market bottomed (short term, permanent who knows) a week after this QE was introduced. If 1.5 Trillion was injected into credit markets, should we assume 1.5T from institutional investors shifted from credit markets to equities? 1T? We don't know the number, this is just for conversation. Theoretically, how much will 1.5T push up equities. Can they really just PROP/BACKSTOP forever? I understand this is a complex question as it also have more to do with confidence, momentum trading etc. W'ere now essentially back to Jan 2019 levels for SPY and other than intense liquidity, it's pretty fair to say that then environment is challenging at best. Market seems, well, like it's not actually a market anymore. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm Tl;DR for WSB. Guys, if you're going to hang out here now you have to speak like an adult okay? SPY 06/19 $250P [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 07 Apr 2020 03:58 PM PDT For those of you who experienced the dotcom bubble, the banking crisis of '08, and now the coronavirus pandemic... What advice would you give to a fairly new investor (1-2 years) who currently has positions in stocks as well as $5-10K capital available to invest in more? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 07 Apr 2020 10:10 PM PDT Thought this was worth sharing. It appears the bulls' main logic (or at least the ones looking at a V-Shaped recovery) about their short term position is that the virus will have a limited impact on the economy since it's possible that once this will all be over, the US can simply return back to work, re-employ all the workers and we can carry on as before. This begs the question, how exactly does the US restart the economy without endangering everyone for a second wave and potentially a second lock-down?
Great so what do this all mean, for the workforce to return to work safely without restarting the pandemic there will need to be mass testing for both the virus and antibody testing, and the accuracy of these tests needs to be to a high standard where we're not sending out people who are potential carries or false immune back into the work force. Now the question becomes, how long will it take to: a) Create an accurate test which can be mass produced and approved (in theory shouldn't be too difficult, China and Singapore are already using these tests). b) Mass produce the tests and actually test everyone to get them back to work. An extremely optimistic timeline for this would be 2 months from today (I'm quoting other articles I've read) at best before you can execute the plan and get some semblance of "returning to normal", i.e. fully functioning economy, malls, restaurants, stadiums full and consumption (70% of GDP) back to full steam. Why is this important? Because even if you send people back to the workforce before the pandemic has been solved, it will still significantly impact the economy. China and South Korea who are further ahead than the US have empty malls, restaurants, sporting events and significantly less consumption (still 70% of GDP). So it's imperative that the economy returns to full functionality asap. What is a more realistic timeline for this given how this government has handled the situation so far? 4-6 months or even longer is not out of the question. As Cuomo suggested we won't be able to just flick on the economy like a light switch and everything goes back to normal. Questions naturally arise about who will pay for it, who will have access to it and how is it distributed? Therefore, what exactly happens when GDP is impacted for 4-6 months? Or even in the optimistic scenario of 2 months? 2 months is nearly 20% of a year. 20% of nearly all GDP just gone and evaporated. 20% of companies revenues and earnings massively blunted. Unemployment naturally rises, consumer confidence and disposable income falls, bad debt piles up. This cycle builds upon itself because as businesses start to lose revenue, they have to cut margins or fail, this leads to further unemployment and further falls in GDP. Lower GDP = Lower earnings = Lower stocks. This hasn't even taken into account the fragile state of the economy due to the Fed pretty much using all their weapons to keep the economy afloat, how do you restart an economy that is already at zero interest rates and has significant sovereign debt as as debtor. What are the repercussions from the Fed using "unlimited QE"? It may prop up the economy in the short term but eventually it will catch up on itself. Throw in the fact that the Shiller PE Ratio for the S&P 500 is still fairly overbought (25.10 currently) and it has a significant way to drop before it goes back to a fair valuation, especially during a recession and you can see why it's far more likely there is huge downside in the near term than upside. There may also be huge downside long term which isn't explored here. What does that mean for your investments? Still dollar cost average in because it will eventually rebound and you will eventually be up (whether that's 2-5 years from now), but in the immediate term look for yields in high yielding corporate debt with strong balance sheets, potentially look into silver and gold to diversify against a weakening dollar and also consider building a short position through an inverse ETF or options until we reach another inevitable bottom. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| US Crude Oil Inventories and Seevol Cushing Storage Report in 1.5hr Posted: 08 Apr 2020 05:13 AM PDT Oil futures are pumping, WTI Crude Futures May20th up by 2% leading up to the report release. Are ya'll ready kids? This is gonna be a rollercoaster ride. PS: Something funny, EIA's STEO report, 95% confidence interval chart for WTI crude prices anywhere between $90-15 in the short term lmao. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 08 Apr 2020 05:11 AM PDT On which website do You guys check premarket stocks values? I can't find any which lists ALL stocks not some top 10 movers list. Could You recommend something? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What are your thoughts on the OPEC meeting Thursday? Posted: 07 Apr 2020 10:11 PM PDT With the state of global oil market where it is, this Thursday's OPEC meeting is slated to be the single most important meeting ever in relation to such a large swath of the global economy. The deal goes great and you get a sudden, but I would argue short-lived, surge in the price of oil. I say short lived because it's unlikely that any production cuts will be sufficient to counteract the demand destruction from COVID19 in the medium term; still though, there's money to be made there. However, if the meeting goes poorly, I say sub $20 oil. Hell even $16 oil. A bear's dream. What makes this incredibly tough is that there definitely will be a drastic change in the oil, but deducing what direction that change will be depends on predicting how a meeting of people goes. No financial metrics. No supply/demand fundamentals. How do 30 people on a video chat come to an agreement. And when it comes to making a guess at a situation like that, there's just too many things to consider. What are your thoughts? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| How can I determine if a company is cash-positive? Posted: 08 Apr 2020 12:58 AM PDT For example, one of my country's companies shows a positive net income, but it has closed its offices after being unable to pay its workers for 3 months straight. What am I missing in this analysis? I can't only look at net income to decide if a company is cash-positive. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 08 Apr 2020 06:54 AM PDT Tesla said less than a week ago that they would not be advising that their financial forecast would change. Then today they furlough and give pay cuts to all their employees. How are they planning to maintain development levels and necessary functionality to hit their original goals? That, plus the harshly descending purchases of vehicles in the US right now make it seem impossible. Thoughts? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 07 Apr 2020 09:26 AM PDT Nomura published an insightful piece about the short squeeze, that partially pushed stocks higher. featured in this article from Financial Time's Alphaville (copy link tag text with dot after com to access article) https://ftalphaville.ft.com./2020/04/07/1586255667000/Markets-Now---Tuesday-7th-April-2020/#comments It also mentions that investors would be wrong to value stocks too strongly for their long-term future growth potential in the current short-term driven news reality. A quick summary of the greed and fear (fomo) scenario we are currently experiencing and that half of GS' clients didn't reach their lows Some new developments from today's economic and infection numbers Additionally, today's infection numbers don't tell the positive story as good as they did yesterday. Spain's daily death toll has seen 100 more daily deaths than yesterday. Similar stories for the UK and France for which death tolls were speeding up compared to the previous days. New York's and New Jersey's fatalities rised again more strongly, really showing a pattern of weaker weekend fatality numbers. Germany and other countries discuss lifting the lockdown with the key requirement to wear masks in order to be allowed onto the street. The key problem is that approximately 95% of the population in Germany cannot get masks because the supply is too low, and will likely not be much greater in the foreseeable future because global demand is rising rapidly, while supply growth cannot keep up with demand. This puts an effective obstacle to lifting lockdowns in the near-term. Companies like Accor (strongly exposed to Covid risks) just let 200k employees go. Additionally, more bonds are graded junk with the numbers steeply to rise (https://www.ft.com/content/72641a3f-5c11-40b1-923a-7aeefbb89d7f) Consumer surveys in Germany concluded that more than 25% of consumers are planning to massively reduce their consumption, even after the lockdowns are lifted. Edit: CitiBank strategists have suggested that the rally is nothing more than an "aftershock" and is not underpinned by trading volume or any guarantees of an end to the outbreak. Obviously we are in unchartered territory here. So, where does this leave us with current investment allocation and risk assumptions in view of the current rally? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| $NFLX: Stay-at-home appears to be extending Netflix's lead: Posted: 08 Apr 2020 04:49 AM PDT Analyst checks suggest Q1 subscriber growth likely to beat expectations with record downloads globally of ~71m, surpassing the previous peak of ~61m in Q1 of 2019. This appears to be driven mainly from international growth, with both Latam and AsiaPac at breakout levels, and Europe 20% above holiday levels. Viral content such as Tiger King coinciding with stay-at-home orders from COVID-19 appears to be extending Netflix's lead as most of its competitors are not yet global. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 07 Apr 2020 09:56 PM PDT Huge sell of 90 million shares at the end of the day for SPY. Some sort of glitch or inaccuracy? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 07 Apr 2020 08:36 PM PDT As the markets rallied on Monday and were set to rally again on Tuesday, the most common headline was that the NYC was peaking in cases. With Italy and Spain having now passed their peaks, the US in general would supposedly soon follow. Here's why this is wrong. Google recently released a fascinating report on the mobility behavior of various countries (based on anonymized tracking data as of March 29th). These reports compare how much time people are spending in different types of locations (retail stores, grocery stores, parks, transit stations, workplaces and their homes) compared to usual. Here are the reports for Italy and Spain. They look pretty similar, about a 85-90% decrease in traffic to retail, groceries, parks and transit stations. Meanwhile, this is what New York looks like: -60% retail and transit, -30% groceries, -50% parks. And keep in mind, this is the hardest-hit state in America; states like Florida have even worse numbers. My point here is that as of a week ago, America as a whole was not even close to enacting social distancing measures on the levels of Spain or Italy. And even if such measures were implemented now, it would take at least 2 weeks for their effect to be felt on the charts (look at how long Spain and Italy have been at -90% on their traffic before their numbers leveled off). So no, the coronavirus is not slowing down in the US. The statistics might not agree with this conclusion, but considering what a clusterfuck they have been so far it's hard to put much faith in them. The conclusion is this: Spain and Italy made great social sacrifices to slow down this virus and unless America gets its shit together and does the same, it shouldn't expect rosy outcomes. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People shouldn't correlate pure fundamentals to an arbitrary stock market value Posted: 07 Apr 2020 08:43 PM PDT If you want to skip this block of paragraphs next, you can just go to the last paragraph for a general summary. I made this post because I see all these well-written and very long posts arguing for why like SPY can go to like 170 or 180 or some value like 200 or lower. The information is great, but I think people are missing the main point, which is this market is driven by buyers and sellers at the end of the day. Here's the thing people need to understand. Stop looking at just the virus and it's economic impact and then putting some arbitrary number on where you think SPY can go. The only way we can get to say a value of like 180 is forced selling. That's the only way. That's actually how we even got to 220 in the first place on that very sharp drop. As long as people are not forced to sell, you can forget 180. It cannot get to 180 on regular market dynamics. Even with forced selling, it needs to be like a catastropic amount of correlated forced selling (from short vol blowupts to Treasury blowups) to get to that level. The forced selling would also have to come from the tech names that have not been hit as hard. AMZN, MSFT, AMD, NVDA, NFLX are all UP for the year. Sure, they'll go down if SPY drops, but for SPY to get to 180, these stocks would need to really crash. Do you really think MSFT is going to crash to 100? Think about it this way. You know anyone who owns MSFT right now and is even passively selling it? Now, not only do you need the passive sellers to sell, but you need the forced sellers to sell on top? Very, very unlikely that's happening in MSFT. You may ask how does forced selling occur? I can explain that more in detail, but it's way too technical here (it's related to a bunch of assets, but option gamma, short VIX, credit, and bonds are the main ones - and it needs to be across different funds/trading firms who are all forced to sell). I'm just here saying that's an event that is not very probable right now, so don't expect SPY 180 to happen. SPY 220? That's more possible, not sure if we reach it again or not (we already reached it once), but SPY 180 or even 200 is way lower chance than what most of these posts I've read on Reddit are implying. It's a way lower chance, like maybe 5% of what the Reddit posts imply. It doesn't make sense to say some (insert a bunch of fundamentals like unemployment, deaths, etc.) -> means this value in SPY. The market is driven by buyers/sellers at the end of the day. This is what people forget. Buyers/sellers are correlated to news, but it's not a 100% correlation. At the end of the day, you need a ton more sellers than buyers for SPY to go to 180. You won't ever get that unless there's forced selling, and it needs to be really dramatic forced selling that is far beyond March. Ask yourself r/investing if you are a bear, have you shorted a ton of SPY right now or are you just in cash waiting to buy? If you are waiting to buy, then you aren't part of this even passive selling group, and that's the main point. Just FYI, my long term bottom has always been 220ish, and I've maintained that (I called that when we first reached there). I have no idea if we re-vist it or not, but I stick to not going to like 200 and below. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Different values for the same ticker symbol Posted: 08 Apr 2020 03:12 AM PDT How is it possible that different investment web pages show totally different values for the same ticker symbol? For example: AT&T
So, what is true Payout Ratio for AT&T company? And why does the other web pages show another value? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The yield curve was inverting before corona, when is the real crash coming? Posted: 08 Apr 2020 06:58 AM PDT The yield curve saw an inversion in late august, I'm guessing this is not that crash since, well it was caused by Corona, so when is all that gonna play out. Did the beer virus make it come early since from an inversion a crash is likely 12-18 months after that. Why were people worried in august? Alot of speculation about Deutsche crashing and a mortgage crisis has been on wsb in the past month and those ideas did not seem to pan out into a crisis. What would likely be the cause of a huge crash in the market? Are we entering a depression considering 1929 was so long ago and has there been a depression since 2008? It might look like I'm searching for something that ends the economy as we know it and yes I am looking for exactly that. I want some Michael Burry action in this sub since wsb went private. If we want a healthy economy the S&P should drop to 1600, right? [link] [comments]  |
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