Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- My Broker (Questrade) called the police on me after I refused to take down posts criticizing them
- US jobs report: unemployment rose to 4.4% in March after February's 50-year low
- Bloomberg: Mortgage Defaults Could Pile Up at Pace That Dwarfs 2008
- $560 billion of investment-grade corporate bonds were downgraded by credit-ratings firms last month.
- Tesla, why?
- USBLS Survey Says Unemployment Rises to 4.4% in March
- Looks like Adam Neumann of WeWork won’t be getting his near $1b payout
- Thoughts on COVID-19 and Current Market Opportunities from an MD
- Will Work From Home (WFH) lead to companies renting less office spaces and also lead to offshoring/outsourcing?
- TSLA up 18%+ after hours after announcing Q1 results
- So, Oil will go up at some point, how to be ready?
- Oil surges 24% for best day on record after Trump tells CNBC Saudis, Russia reach agreement
- What’s going to happen to oil? Is not a good time to short while prices are high or should we be doubling down on it?
- This has been a humbling experience.
- Anyone else worried about the corporate bond market?
- SBA 7a (forgiveable) loan to small businesses - Frantic Confusion
- What are you buying?
- The same companies are often listed in several countries. Which stock is better to buy?
- Reasons why markets aren't falling farther
- What could happen with Luckin
- What is the Government's Plan for the Housing Market after Everything Returns to Normal?
- We Are Entering A New GFC: Analysis on the Coming Months
- If the Tiffany acquisition by LVMH falls through, what price would Tiffany be trading at?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 03 Apr 2020 05:13 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| My Broker (Questrade) called the police on me after I refused to take down posts criticizing them Posted: 02 Apr 2020 01:35 PM PDT This is kind of part 3 of what's been happening so here are some links to the first 2 posts as well as a link to the original post on WSB about this story: Post #2 - Questrade Legal Contacted me Post #3 (Original post on WSB)- Got a call from police regarding "threats" to Questrade last night... I was read some of the posts you guys made on their sub So in the original email where they mention legal action they accused me of threats, extortion and defamation.
Obviously the quotes in the email don't provide full context but the cops understood that and read it back to me. Paraphrasing here but this is the comment regarding burning down the building:
So obviously I was saying it as a figure of speech in a time of frustration and not serious in anyway regarding it but regardless Questrade took it to the police. The other comment about "if I can't get my money back I'll be sure they lose an equal amount in whatever way I can" was meant as in them losing potential/current client's commissions. Obviously I didn't mean any harm which I clarified in my reply to the original email. Basically the police cautioned me and said they don't think I was serious. The call I got was around 1:30am EST and I asked if they usually call this late and the officer said that they were just getting to it cause they had more pressing matters (assuming COVID19). Just a waste of police resources in general if you ask me. Especially during this time. Like the guy from the TradeDesk said to me in an email...
I would urge Questrade to think about their actions. The officer also asked me if I was the one writing posts about "Questrade killing someone's wife"(?) and I think something about Hitler but I was able to clarify that it wasn't me writing those posts and it was other people who were likely upset. Just find it pretty ridiculous that police had to waste their time going through screenshots sent by Questrade of their sub... Not sure why they would waste the police's time with this but it ultimately resulted in nothing. It was, in my opinion, obvious that those comments were both said out of frustration and I removed them (along with all comments) at the request of a Questrade employee as well anyway. I think what people should take away from this though is how poorly Questrade is treating its clients. If I were to phone them and be upset I don't want to be scared of potentially having a criminal charge brought forward on me because they took something I said out of frustration seriously and involved the police. Honestly think their handling of this matter has been incredibly unprofessional throughout. Upsetting to think this was a company I used to admire and recommend to countless people. Even just a few days before all this happened I was recommending them to friends - https://imgur.com/a/DHVOHhE It's amazing to me how poorly they've handled all this and how in less than 3 weeks my opinion of them has done a complete 180. What a joke. I'm sure you guys worked this out for yourselves but just want to point out how it's weirdly convenient that they saw the "threats" last week but the police only contacted me after I refused to take down my posts about them... (15 hours after the deadline Questrade gave me to take down the posts) Proof I was contacted by police since some people think I am lying about it- https://imgur.com/a/rVU3KfR Guys if you want to help get the word out and potentially save other Canadians from signing up with this nightmare of a broker please tweet this thread at Questrade or Business Insider or marketwatch or bloomberg or anyone else that can write about it. I don't have an active twitter account so can't really do it myself but would appreciate it immensely. I think it's important for Canadians to know that they could potentially get contacted by the police if they say something to their broker out of frustration or anger. People should know what kind of company they are dealing with. You can also email the News Tips email on sites with links to these threads if you want. Thanks guys. edit: To contact cbc: https://www.cbc.ca/mediacentre/contact and Edit 2: To those saying I'm in the wrong. I can agree that I shouldn't have said some things but what I want to point out is this I understand that but if they were worried about the threat why did they wait until after my second round of postings to bring it up? Why wasn't I contacted by police sooner regarding it. How is it that police only contacted me about 15 hours after the deadline they gave me to take down my posts had passed? If there was a concern of safety they had screenshots of the posts Thursday March 26 at 5:53 pm EST at the latest. How is it police only contacted me April 1st at 1:16AM EST? 13 hours and 16 minutes after the deadline had passed. Police also had screenshots of posts made on Mar 30 and Mar 31. Obviously I can't know but it seems like they only went to the police after I refused to take down the posts. Here's a more clear timeline: Step 1 - lose money Step 2 - post about it on /r/Questrade (and only /r/Questrade) on every single post and warn people Step 3 - mod on /r/Questrade asks for my number Step 4 - TradeDeskGuy calls me to talk to me Step 5 - TradeDeskGuy says he's gonna see what kind of compensation he can get me Step 6 - TradeDeskGuy asks me to remove my posts while he is "going to bat for me" (no joke he really said that)
Step 7 - I comply and delete even my original complaint Step 8 - Receive 1200USD offer Step 9 - Decline offer and post about what happened everywhere I can think of Step 10 - Get asked to remove my posts again (by TradeDeskGuy):
Step 11 - I don't Step 12 - Mar 31 12pm passes Step 13 - 13.5 hours later I get a call from the police regarding the "threats" that I had deleted in Step 7 I think Step was the wrong word to use in all this but does that clear up the timeline for you? [link] [comments]  |
| US jobs report: unemployment rose to 4.4% in March after February's 50-year low Posted: 03 Apr 2020 05:35 AM PDT |
| Bloomberg: Mortgage Defaults Could Pile Up at Pace That Dwarfs 2008 Posted: 02 Apr 2020 05:44 PM PDT
It's a vicious cycle here, landlords who depend on renters who can't pay their rent now will result in landlords not being able to cover their mortgage--and anyone with a service job that is a homeowner that's furloughed/laid off will also likely face default as well. While I'm not sure if this will "dwarf '08", there most certainly has to be major action taken to prevent even something that's half as bad as '08. [link] [comments]  |
| $560 billion of investment-grade corporate bonds were downgraded by credit-ratings firms last month. Posted: 03 Apr 2020 04:00 AM PDT Although some believe that QE and Central Bank purchases are sufficient to reduce credit spreads, investment-graded corporate bond downgrades are on a 20-year high. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Apr 2020 03:46 AM PDT First of all i am new to the stock market. I don't know if this is a good question. I am asking so i can learn. Yesterday tesla announced that they produced around 89.000 cars in 1st quarter of 2020, 10% more than wall street had estimated. That caused the after market to be around +20% at some time and now to +13%. Obviously it will cause a temporary (or not) rise to the stock. What i want to ask is 1) Isn't this announcement supposed to be done when they report the 1st quarter earnings and not 20 days before? Or is this completely irrelevant? 2) Was this a tactic to prevent further drop to the stock because in last two days it has dropped a significant amount (i think). 3) The procedure of earnings report is standard for all companies? Thanks in advance. [link] [comments]  |
| USBLS Survey Says Unemployment Rises to 4.4% in March Posted: 03 Apr 2020 05:33 AM PDT |
| Looks like Adam Neumann of WeWork won’t be getting his near $1b payout Posted: 02 Apr 2020 06:54 AM PDT https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/tech/wework-softbank-bailout/index.html SoftBank canceled the shares buyout [link] [comments]  |
| Thoughts on COVID-19 and Current Market Opportunities from an MD Posted: 02 Apr 2020 11:14 AM PDT 4/2/20 Biotechnology in the COVID-19 Crisis Environment – "We are our worst enemy" Theory Hi all, I'm a neurology resident physician with a masters degree in molecular biology with a bit of extra time for the moment so wanted to share some personal opinions on areas that COVID-19 might push us towards. Overall I believe the markets are emotional AF and are panicking currently out of line with reality. Panic looks for a cure, so having some insight into where that 'cure' might come from may be highly profitable to some. Thoughts On COVID-19 For some reference and to possibly assuage your fears that the world is ending; as of 4/1, there are a reported 45,000 deaths worldwide related to this new virus. Worldwide, the #4 cause of death is a lower respiratory infection, accounting for 2,957,000 deaths/year (Not including #10, tuberculosis at 1,293,000)^1. As a factor of mortality, COVID-19 should not be too scary to the average person (You're still more likely to die from driving to work than from COVID-19, so staying at home really is saving lives!).^2 This is not to say you should not be taking precautions. All of medicine is predicated on a cost versus benefit calculation. The benefit of being alive, versus the current cost being social distancing and hand washing. An easy calculation for most I hope. My basic overall model for the future is underlined by the thought that we will not get rid of COVID-19. After this initial wave, we will continue to be hit with pockets of virus off and on. The virus itself will bounce up and down in years to come becoming part of our usual environmental anti-biome. A vaccine will eventually come around to synchronize with herd immunity and depress the virus to levels that people will return to their usual activity levels and every few years we'll hear about a COVID-19 outbreak. Using this as a theoretically realistic model of what to expect, below are my thoughts on companies that may interface with this virus long term. First the Science-y stuff on COVID-19 that guides my assumptions (Simplified/Skippable) Death by Cytokine Storm Though this virus is 'new', coronaviruses and similar viruses have existed for a very long time. Other subtypes of it are known as the common cold. We are almost all exposed to it in childhood without many hiccups. Similar to how many kids seem to be exposed to COVID-19 but don't seem to be suffering nearly as much as adults. This is likely because children's bodies are trained to see new viruses and react to them in measured ways (Their immune system is tilted towards a T-cell response, which takes longer to respond, but responds in subtle ways to slowly tilt the battle against an intruder). Imagine the T-cell(child) response as a coordinated intelligence program that takes time to learn about a threat and find a precise way target and kill it. It takes time in comparison to our adult (B-cell) response (why kids can be sicker for longer versus adult 'day colds'). The B cell (adult) response is like we kept all the intelligence information we got as a kid and kept the bombs, but fired the intelligence personnel. Why should we pay (calories) to you T-cell people if you've already figured out all the targets our body will need to fight in this life? So the T-cell producing organs shrivel as we get older and our immune system is mainly predicated on our B cells response. But now, we're exposed to a new virus. Our body turns to the old plans and bombs. The bombs fall, but the targets aren't right. We hit some virus, we hit some of our cells, collateral damage may be more dangerous than the virus but the body doesn't know that. We try to rehire old intelligence personnel to try to get them to figure out this new thing attacking us. As we await the hiring process, our body continues to drop bombs trying to destroy everything that might be infected, without knowing what the infection looks like. Eventually, our response is too much, we just dropped bombs on what is ostensibly ~80% of our own lung tissue and now we need a ventilator but there isn't one available, so we 'suffocate' and die. The virus didn't kill us, we did it to ourselves. In a storm of rebellion against an invader, we triggered a cytokine storm^5 and burned down the whole building to keep the virus from getting in. The B cells had one job, kill virus. Well the virus can't survive in a corpse for long. Mission accomplished.^3 (If you're interested in this model, read about IRIS in HIV/IADS patient for an analogy. To put it simply, when we fix peoples immune systems they can die due to said immune system.)^4 There is a growing bed of literature concerned about the role of cytokine storms in mortalitiy issues ie; this is the thing that kills people. This is the thing we can save people with if its prevented, below is some discussion on options to prevent it. ^5 Viruses in general, are not that prone to innately killing people. They want to keep you alive so they can reproduce more. Unfortunately, our immune responses to viruses can likely be more of an enemy than the virus itself. The biggest thing we want to prevent is death, so with the goal of reducing said endpoint of death, this are my thought on current treatment options and future avenues that could financially benefit. The thoughts below are from my education in medicine and molecular biology and what I've seen from treating COVID-19 patients. General Medical Algorithm in treating any contagion:
I think we are ripely between #2 and #3 currently and the next big spike in equities will be in companies positioned to leverage #3. #4 unfortunately is too unpredictable at this point for me to comment on. Interface of treatments and finance options: More + = Greater Reward/Risk considerations. (+/-) Ventilators (BDX, Phillips, etc) : Short term, essential to limit mortality. As COVD-19 hits hospitals hardest, it will drive up need for ventilators massively (already seen). Outside of the lethality of the virus, the biggest threat to mortality is a lack of ventilators. Initial demand will greatly increase. Unfortunately, once made, ventilators will likely remain long after this virus, depressing the market long term. As we get better treatments that work, ventilators will likely be needed less. Currently all we really have that we know helps is the throw someone on a ventilator and let their immune system kill the thing while we support them. Short term outlook (<6 months) Positive. 1-2 year outlook: Neutral. (-) Hydroxychloroquine: It doesn't work as a treatment in my opinion. It is a classic petri-dish versus human problem. It stops/reduces cell virus entry, which is great if you use it as a prophylactic as it will increase the required viral load needed to become infected. As a treatment though, when you have 50,00,000 copies of virus already, reducing the spread isn't the same as treatment. I believe unfortunately by the time the virus is showing symptoms, a person has too many copies of virus so slowing the rate of repeat cell entry does not make a clinical difference. A few papers have now shown this but not in statistically reliable ways (Not enough patients, an expected limitation at this point). The closest analogue to this is amantadine with its prevention of the flu (which also, doesn't really work because by the time you have symptoms the virus has spread too much to be clinically blunted). Also the theory behind it is founded on a laboratory model that cannot be necessarily safely replicated (due to dosages) in humans. Would you rather die from COVID-19 or from HCQ overdose stopping your heart? Overall: cheap medication with limited clinical benefit. Most upside has already been unraveled, greater risk than reward at this point in my opinion. (+) Antivirals (Gilead): Possible area of research, but generalized research into antivirals as a broad class leave a lot to be desired. Used in combination with other medicines target other mechanisms of action they seem to work (HIV treatments) but in isolation they limit reproduction of virus. At >50,000,000 copies the damage might be done though. The thought is the same to "flattening the curve" / slowing down virus replication to give your body time to fight it off. I think this will be an adjunct to treatment long term but given production constraints of remdisivir I don't think the swing will be that large. (/"priced in" at this point) Overall: expensive medication with possible clinical benefit. Long term will add to Gileads portfolio but seems somewhat 'priced in' at this point. Speculative play against COVID19 only. (++) Tocilizumab (Chugai, La Roche/RHHBY): An IL-6 blocker, one of the important co-factors in the cytokine storm. This is something cells release to tell the body to 'release the bombs'. I'm hopeful for this as a treatment. If we go back to the original hypothesis, the bodies response to a 'new invader' is a large part of what causes the end point of death. Multiple studies have now launched across countries as this seems to be clinically effective. Limiting its potential upside is the fact that it's immunosuppressive and we don't have a lot of long term data on how COVID-19 interacts with immunosuppressed people. Personally I'm very bullish on this. Overall: expensive medication with likely clinical benefit. Will likely become a key part of long term management of this disease as it will target the mortality causing part of the disease. Limited background market outside COVID19. (++) Sarlimumab (Sanofi/SNY, Regeneron/REGN): Similar to tocilizumab, also an IL-6 blocker. Overall: expensive medication with likely clinical benefit. (++++) IVIG (Grifols/GRFS, CSL Behring AG/CSLLY, Baxter/BAX): This is other peoples plasma. Like vaccinating someone else, pulling out the antibodies they made against the virus, and injecting them into someone else. Targeted treatment that also blunts peoples own inflammatory response, limiting the effect of a cytokine storm. It is used as an immune-modulatory agent (not immunosuppressive) at baseline and has a good market for multiple sclerosis and other autoimmune disorders that 'flair'. The theory being that injecting other peoples premade antibodies to the virus will kill the virus in a targeted way while also mitigating the immune reaction and keeping your body from killing itself. Personally I'm extremely bullish on this and Grifols in particular as that is the product most hospitals seem to use around my area. CSL Behring also has a reported subcutaneous formulation which could keep people out of the hospital for infusions, limiting exposure/spread of virus as well. Overall: Expensive medication, already in shortage (increased demand/decreased production over the past few years) prior to this, with limited companies able to produce it. Likely to have a large clinical benefit and become a mainstay of treatment prior to more directed therapies/vaccines. Has a baseline market (other disorders) that will only increase in the background long term. Safety of a stable market/demand with upside as a massive treatment for COVID-19. (++++) Vaccine: A vaccine is the ultimate treatment, unfortunately there's no way to pick which company will be most successful. I expect the first vaccines to not be very effective and will unfortunately likely give the virus an opportunity to morph. All this to say, picking a vaccine company is impossible at this point with the available literature base currently. You could try to assemble all of the companies working on a vaccine that have a separately good pipeline to try to play the eventual massive swing when a vaccine is announced and limit downside when it's not the company you picked. (--) Hospitals in general: Will be hit fairly hard, most reimbursement for hospitals comes from elective procedures, self funded payment or payed with private insurance. COVID19 represents a glut of patients that are likely to not be able to pay, being shoved into expensive ICUs that the hospital will have to front unfortunately. On top of this are costs to retrofit hospitals for the increased burden. At the same time hospitals are needed to hire more people, cover shifts, and go without their main source of income dependent on a low government reimbursement rate. (Almost any US hospital would go under if it depended only on government reimbursement as of this moment so there is a very real risk to hospitals.) From a financial standpoint, I think the IVIG market stands to benefit the most from all this long term with the least amount of initial risk though the research is still lacking in the field. This is the closest to a crystal ball prediction that I have given my education and experience with these patients. Overall, things will hurt, in the short term and in a human term. People who could have been alive given proper government action will not be by years end regrettably. As it has though, the global markets will continue in their indifferent churning ways and in the end we will be preparing for the next downturn. We have gotten past many different pandemics before. In the end, this too shall pass. Also, thank you to all those that are washing their hands and trying their best to self isolate. I know it's a massive pain but it really is saving lives. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Apr 2020 06:57 PM PDT Will Office REITs be affected once bosses realize they don't need such a big office space? [link] [comments]  |
| TSLA up 18%+ after hours after announcing Q1 results Posted: 02 Apr 2020 02:29 PM PDT The roller coaster continues for them https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/tesla-tsla-1q-2020-production-and-delivery-numbers.html
[link] [comments]  |
| So, Oil will go up at some point, how to be ready? Posted: 02 Apr 2020 09:19 PM PDT I'm not a buyer in today's market, but Oil industry cannot collapse and once this said and over with, and I would like to be part of it going up. Now I'm not familiar with the oil industry and would love some guidance. I'm not looking for a particular stock or ETF, I'm find doing my own DD but I would love it if someone points me to the right direction. Thanks [link] [comments]  |
| Oil surges 24% for best day on record after Trump tells CNBC Saudis, Russia reach agreement Posted: 02 Apr 2020 11:53 AM PDT |
| Posted: 02 Apr 2020 07:49 PM PDT |
| This has been a humbling experience. Posted: 03 Apr 2020 01:16 AM PDT There are many lessons to draw from this crisis, but for me the main lesson is that we are never truly in control. Everything can come crashing in the blink of an eye. No matter how great the market looks one day, unexpected and uncontrollable things (9/11, 2008, covid-19) can take hold of the wheel and drive you into a ditch. Just last month we were debating whether or not we were living in the greatest bull market in history. Now today our government is fighting with every ounce of energy to keep us from a depression. Just a few months ago, media outlets were publishing stories about record breaking consumer confidence rates. Today, we are seeing record breaking unemployment claims and banks are asking whether we'll be trending towards levels of mortgage defaults that can rival what transpired in 2008. You could have been the most financially responsible person, but depending on how things go you might have to put retirement off by 5 to 10 years. You may be the hardest working person around, but depending on how things shape up you might be out of a house and job. Our country preaches bootstraps and hard work but almost never says anything about luck and fate. We are powerless against nature, and we suffer the consequences of other people's decisions. I am truly humbled by this. I will never look at investing, business, and even life the same way. It's all so fragile. We are dust in the wind. Control is an illusion. Luck is the ground that we walk on and fate is our master. The silver lining is that it should be clear that we are in this life together. When enough of us get hurt, everyone feels the pain. Life is not a zero sum game. We can all live decent lives and we should wish exactly that for one another. Never let a crisis go to waste, some like to say. In that same spirit, may this crisis be the calling shot to the power brokers and money elites to start building a different society. One that practices compassion and fairness as a matter of course, not only when the apple cart looks like it's about to tip over. [link] [comments]  |
| Anyone else worried about the corporate bond market? Posted: 02 Apr 2020 09:29 PM PDT I've been reading up on the corporate bond market recently and theres a lot of signals that the whole bond market might crash, thoughts? Also if there is someone with an opposite view I'd love to hear that side as well. [link] [comments]  |
| SBA 7a (forgiveable) loan to small businesses - Frantic Confusion Posted: 02 Apr 2020 06:27 PM PDT I wanted to make a short post about the CARE act and what's actually happening on the ground. I'm a lifelong entrepreneur, and I own about 10 small businesses (of varying size). Background: This last week has been a total clusterfuck of business owners trying to figure out the details of the SBA 7a loans. The entire week has been information overload. I probably have 250 emails in my inbox with conflicting information about the process to receive a loan, and the requirements for forgiveness. Everyone has been told that applications will be available to submit by tomorrow (Friday) through your banker. Current Situation: The banks obviously have no clue what's going on. Here is a quote from one of the local banks in my area written and sent out today: "As it stands now, banks are being publicly called on to deliver a program where many of the most basic questions about it, including the terms and conditions under which the loans will be approved, and lenders' liability for the loans, have not yet been fully addressed. This leaves individual lenders unable to decide the parameters of their participation in the program". NOBODY believes that 350 billion is enough to fund all of the loans necessary to small business across the country. This was confirmed today from the call I received from my BofA rep. He told me that he just had a call with management, and BofA is going to prioritize those with the largest credit lines to be first in line. Obviously this works out well for BofA. He also said he didn't think there would be enough money to fund any CARE act forgivable loans for my companies (ouch). As you can imagine, business owners are frantic trying to be first in line for this free money grab. They're about to find out it's not necessarily first come, first serve. The banks are going to charge origination fees from 5-14% on each government loan. I've heard they're non-refundable, although that last part has not been confirmed. Each of my companies are in a different position due to the coronavirus. Some had revenues of tens of millions go down to almost zero. Others are down 20%, and a couple are doing better than ever. It's very difficult to make strategic decisions on what to do with employees and cash when there is so much uncertainty. Please don't take any of this as a complaint. I just wanted to share as much as I could about what's going on for entrepreneurs right now. Ask any questions. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Apr 2020 05:00 AM PDT I'm interested in finding some great value on stocks. 10$ or less. I've got my eye on AMC just on current price alone, but I'm also curious about companies with better financials you may be eyeing. For example I'm planning on picking up some AEO, which has had solid financials for the past 5 years. It's currently selling in the 6-7$ range. What dips are irresistible to you right now? Let me know what you think. [link] [comments]  |
| The same companies are often listed in several countries. Which stock is better to buy? Posted: 03 Apr 2020 03:04 AM PDT Some companies are listed in more than one country, so I am confusing which one is better to buy. For example, LVMH is listed in the Milan stock exchange (ticker: LVMH) and also in the EURONextParis (ticker: MC). The same situation is for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (ticker: 2330 in the Taiwan stock market, and ticker: TSM in the New York Stock Market Exchange). Is it better to buy stocks from its native national stock exchange? Or Doesn't it matter much? Thank you for the help in advance. [link] [comments]  |
| Reasons why markets aren't falling farther Posted: 02 Apr 2020 11:40 AM PDT Some of you might be as perplexed as I am as to why the markets didn't fall farther, and why we saw that recent huge rally. I was holding some puts in anticipation of a bigger drop, and they lost about 90% of their value over 2 weeks (I've since cut my losses). Let's collect and list some of the reasons why markets aren't continuing to fall. I there's something missing, comment and I'll add it to the list. Here's the list:
My thoughts: I expected markets to drop another 30-40% a couple weeks ago, but instead we saw a big 20% jump. I'm still skeptical of the current situation, but if the virus growth continues to slow we might see that V recovery after all. I'm holding some bonds and a few call LEAPs for QQQ (tech will do well no matter how things go, IMO) and USO, as well as October VIX puts. I'm considering buying some RUT puts 3-6 months out to hedge against another big drop. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Apr 2020 08:59 PM PDT I was just looking at some numbers. Luckin has two classes of shares. The class B shares have 10 votes, the class A shares, which are the ADRs, have 1. 90% of the voting power is represented by the class B shares, which are owned by the founders (and maybe a handful of others). I see it as possible, maybe even probable, that they use the cash on the balance sheet ($1.6B) to buy in the float. The float is only worth $500M at these prices. They would take the company private. And then just use the rest of the cash on the balance sheet to fend off all the coming class action lawsuits. This one would be pretty epic, but I think it's more than possible. The really crazy thing is that this could have possibly all been orchestrated from the get go. [link] [comments]  |
| What is the Government's Plan for the Housing Market after Everything Returns to Normal? Posted: 02 Apr 2020 08:58 PM PDT How will homeowners be asked to pay their mortgage loan once the COVID-19 forbearance grace period is over? Will they be required to pay the accrued monthly principal and interest in one go, or will their mortgage loan be extended for a longer period of time? What is the government's plan for the housing market after everything returns to normal? [link] [comments]  |
| We Are Entering A New GFC: Analysis on the Coming Months Posted: 03 Apr 2020 01:12 AM PDT Hi All, I'm new to r/investing but not new to investing itself - I work at a boutique investment firm. I thought I would come here to offer some of my thoughts on the current economic climate. I appreciate any feedback or comments greatly. 1. As someone mentioned in a previous post, referencing a Bloomberg article, it seems highly likely that mortgage default rates will skyrocket to the 10-15% level, much like the previous GFC of 08-9. While this means that millions of people will be effectively homeless, it also has drastic effects for the economy. As we saw in 08-9, the high default rates mean that banks sell the claimed houses to 'make good' on the loan. This increased selling drives the prices of houses down, which might allow for people to re-enter the market, except for the fact that banks are no longer lending after taking significant losses. What this does is open up a potential area for profit for the investor. While we are most likely unable to buy credit default swaps on mortgage backed securities, called 'bespoke tranche opportunity' by some banks, we can borrow shares to sell at lower prices or simply short bank stock CFDs. Bank stocks sold of by 40% and more during the GFC when it became clear that they did not have a handle on the current market, and it seems clear that this may happen once again. 2. The oil and commodity market is a particular focus of our firm, and I have been given permission to provide analysis on the current sentiment, providing I do not tell our positions or sizings. The WTI oil price has crashed through the floor due to increased production from Russia, compounded by the decreased demand due to COVID-19. This is a time of great uncertainty in the oil markets, with high volatility. However, the current price war is pretty much destined to stop, as both the economies of Russia and the Middle Eastern countries strongly depend on the oil price. Other countries such as Kazakhstan are almost entirely oil based. This means that the price war benefits no one, and both countries would be fit to agree upon production amounts, separate to OPEC recommendations. This means that it can be expected that the oil price returns to the $30 level within the next 4-6 months, and it will most likely stay there for the following year, as everything comes back online and a trade agreement is negotiated. [link] [comments]  |
| If the Tiffany acquisition by LVMH falls through, what price would Tiffany be trading at? Posted: 03 Apr 2020 03:52 AM PDT |
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