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    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    April 01, 2020

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 01 Apr 2020 05:16 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Opinion: The market is rising not because people ignore the severity of the crisis but because financial statements of Q1 hasn't been released yet

    Posted: 31 Mar 2020 11:22 AM PDT

    Sure, jobless claims and empty streets are a hints of the severity of the crisis and that's why the stocks went down in the first place - but it's also important to note that little or no information of financial losses (besides the occasional news reports on yahoo) have been released by companies.

    And at the end of the day revenue dictates the individual stock price much more significantly than the number of jobless claims in California .

    Expect a significant downturn only once those financial statements get released this month.

    submitted by /u/depressed333
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    Economists Are Losing Hope in a ‘V-Shaped’ Post-Virus Recovery

    Posted: 31 Mar 2020 07:05 PM PDT

    The coronavirus is guaranteed to throw the world into recession, but economists are becoming less convinced about the potential for a strong snapback in growth.

    The base case for forecasters is that a recovery, perhaps even a vigorous one, gets under way in the second half of 2020. But as the pandemic spreads through Europe and the Americas, and the wide range of knock-on effects comes into clearer view, caveats to that call are piling up.

    relates to Economists Are Losing Hope in a 'V-Shaped' Post-Virus Recovery Underlying all of them is the simple fact that economic outcomes hinge on something that's beyond the professional competence of most economists to forecast: the trajectory of the disease itself.

    "We have no certainty the virus will be gone by the end of the second quarter," said Nobel prizewinner Joseph Stiglitz, a professor at Columbia University in New York. If it "lasts through the summer, then all the effects will be amplified."

    Read More: Economists See U.S. Facing Worst-Ever Quarterly Contraction

    Beyond that, there is an array of questions for economists to grapple with -- and those doubts increasingly undermine projections for what's known as a "V-shaped recovery," in which lost output is quickly restored.

    Rather than sounding a decisive "all clear," health authorities seem likely to advocate a gradual return to normal working life, so the behavior known as "social distancing" may stick around.

    Along with financial blows sustained during the downturn, that is likely to damp spending on travel or spending at shops or restaurants -- assuming those businesses can stay afloat in the first place.

    "It takes more time to get 'back to play' than to 'get back to work'," said Catherine Mann, chief economist at Citigroup Inc. This "underpins concerns for the trajectory for services-dependent advanced economies in the second half of 2020," she said.

    Global Easing in 2020 Central banks across the world have cut interest rates this year

    Source: Bloomberg

    Note: Map shows rate decisions since the start of the year

    Consumer caution is already evident in China, even though authorities say it's safe to go back into the marketplace, and it could happen elsewhere.

    That's why Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, likens his forecast to a "Nike swoosh" rather than a V- or U-shaped rebound. He says U.S. output alone could plunge at an annualized pace of as much as 25% in the second quarter, bounce back by up to 15% in the third, then stall in the fourth with the economy "basically limping along."

    Much will depend on how fast businesses bring back jobs. The International Labor Organization warns 25 million positions may be shed, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said on Tuesday it expected U.S. unemployment to soar to 15%.

    Mckinsey & Co. notes one quarter of U.S. households already live from paycheck to paycheck, and that 40% of Americans are unable to cover an unexpected expense of $400 without borrowing.

    Stiglitz worries about what he calls "financial gridlock" in which households and companies can't pay bills, forcing those they owe to into bankruptcy and default as well and so on.

    That threat could be heightened by the scale of borrowing in recent years. The Institute of International Finance estimates household debt -- as a share of output -- is at record levels in several economies.

    Who's Borrowing? In many countries, households didn't delever after the financial crisis

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Corporate borrowing has also hit a high in countries including France and the U.S. Those debts along with the collapse in earnings and slide in equities may limit the ability of companies to reboot after the crisis, with some also likely to be hurt by the collapse in oil prices.

    "In any recovery, firms may need to sell shares or slash capex to reduce debt or repay government assistance," said Charles Dumas of TS Lombard.

    Keen to avoid an extended recession, policy makers have been taking emergency measures on a scale that likely exceeds even the response to the 2008 financial crisis. They're extending credit lifelines to business, paying cash to households, and helping companies cover their wage bills so they don't have to fire workers. Central banks have slashed interest rates and started new asset-purchase programs.

    Read more: Understanding Recessions as World Heads Into One: QuickTake

    The strongest argument for a rapid recovery is what economists call "pent-up demand" -- a label that applies quite literally in the current crisis.

    Economies shuddered to a halt when people were forced to hunker down at home, so there should be a corresponding upswing when they're allowed out again -- especially with governments everywhere injecting cash to speed the process.

    "Assuming the outbreak peaks by April/May, this will likely set the stage for a recovery in the second half of 2020," said Chetan Ahya, chief economist at Morgan Stanley.

    He predicts the global economy will contract 2.3% on an annualized basis in the first half of the year before growing 1.5% in the second half. Even that scenario means the U.S. and euro area won't regain their pre-crisis levels of output until the third quarter of 2021.

    Bond-Purchasing Programs The coronavirus pandemic has driven more central banks to buy bonds

    Source: Bloomberg

    At JPMorgan Chase & Co., economists led by Bruce Kasman are citing emerging markets as another source of concern. They're being pinched by gains in the dollar and the outflow of foreign-held capital, pushing up local borrowing costs.

    The most encouraging virus news for economists at the moment comes from Asia, which suffered the first outbreaks but appears to have gotten them under a degree of control.

    China is cranking back into action, with numbers released on Tuesday showing manufacturing activity rebounded strongly in March.

    Demand in the domestic market is reviving, as lockdowns ease and consumers return to the shops or showrooms. Auto sales, for example, have been ticking higher for weeks, though they're still down some 40% from last year's level.

    What Bloomberg's Economists Say... "If outbreaks in other countries follow the same trajectory, the world economy could be up and running again by the start of the second half. But that's far from guaranteed. Past pandemics lasted years, not months. Scientists at Imperial College London are warning containment measures may have to stay in place for 18 months."

    -- Tom Orlik, chief economist. See {BECO <GO>}

    International orders, though, may take longer to recover. Because other economies got hit later by the virus, they're seeing a slump in demand for imports just as China's export engine is revving up again. That feedback loop may undermine other recoveries too.

    And in China, as in other countries, economics will continue to depend on epidemiology for some time to come. Even as overall progress is made toward containing the coronavirus and developing a vaccine, there's no guarantee that the movement will be in one direction.

    Instead there could be "aftershocks following the initial outbreak, with restrictions being re-imposed and lifted so as to manage the capacity of the healthcare system to cope," said Keith Wade, chief economist at Schroder Investment Management. "In economic terms, this would lead to a double-dip recession."

    History also suggests reason to worry. A just-published study of pandemics and armed conflicts found such shocks typically weigh on wages and investment for years to come.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/a-quick-rebound-from-virus-economists-have-reason-to-doubt-it?srnd=premium-asia

    submitted by /u/HugeCanoe
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    Oil Prices Drop below $10/bbl at American Hubs as Storage Space Fills up

    Posted: 31 Mar 2020 04:09 PM PDT

    https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/31/oil-selling-below-10bbl-at-key-american-hubs

    Oil selling below $10/bbl at key American hubs

    By SHEELA TOBBEN on 3/31/2020

    NEW YORK (Bloomberg) --Oil is selling for less than $10 across key North American hubs as the global demand shock from coronavirus leaves crude with nowhere to go.

    The coronavirus pandemic has hit demand so hard that as benchmark futures plunge to lowest in 18 years, oil is backing up throughout the distribution system, raising the prospect that producers will need to shut in wells. Some of the hardest-hit areas have been those thousands of miles from export terminals, which would provide the possibility of escape, either to foreign markets or onto tankers as floating storage.

    Refiners across the U.S., including PBF Energy Inc., Valero Energy Corp. and Phillips 66, are slowing fuel production as restrictions on travel and work has reduced gasoline and jet fuel demand to a trickle. North Atlantic Refining Ltd will be idling its 130,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Newfoundland, Canada, for two to five months due to the outbreak.

    The market is groaning under the weight of this oversupply so much so that U.S. midstream operators such as Plains All American Pipelines have asked their suppliers to reduce oil production because storage capacity is reaching its limits.

    Bakken crude in Guernsey, Wyoming, sank to a record-low $3.18 a barrel Monday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, while Western Canadian Select in Hardisty, Alberta, was worth just $4.18. Even oil in West Texas is as cheap as it's ever been. West Texas Intermediate in Midland was $10.68, just above its all-time low from 1998. And it's lower-quality counterpart, West Texas Sour, slid to a record $7.18, the lowest in data going back to 1988.

    West Texas Intermediate Light, also known as WTL, traded at around $7.50 a barrel below the WTI Midland benchmark on Monday, traders said, the equivalent of about $3 a barrel outright. Including transportation costs from the wellhead, that would mean the very light crude is worth near-zero, if not negative, when it comes out of the ground.

    Even oil that makes it to a dock isn't immune from the price plunge, as refineries around the world slow down. U.S. oil for export from Corpus Christi -- the end point of several new Permian pipelines and a major exporting hub -- traded at $15 a barrel below July Brent, according to traders.

    submitted by /u/throwaway2134274
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    Amazon and Microsoft actually ended the first quarter higher as most of the market tanked

    Posted: 31 Mar 2020 02:18 PM PDT

    Reality Check: You dont have enough infromation (or capabilities) to predict market sentiment. Your predicitions have no validity.

    Posted: 31 Mar 2020 04:16 PM PDT

    Stop wasting time trying to figuere out what's driving the market and whats priced in.

    You can't possibly know. You don't have the infromation required, and even if you did you wouldn't know how to intergrate it.

    Go make yourself useful and focus on things you can actualy predict with some real validity.

    submitted by /u/Jeroen_Jrn
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    JPMorgan Asset Management Says It’s Too Early to Buy Stocks

    Posted: 31 Mar 2020 11:46 PM PDT

    In a walkback from their earlier statement only two days ago, JPMorgan's strategist says that it's too early to buy stocks yet.

    "I'm not yet confident in advocating overweight risk assets positions because you're vulnerable in that scenario to a deterioration of the news on the medical front," said Hugh Gimber, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, in a phone interview. "The policy measures have helped but they're not on their own enough for us to call a definitive bottom in this market."

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/jpmorgan-am-says-it-s-too-early-to-buy-stocks-amid-virus-risks

    Two days ago, JPMorgan said that the worst of the market routs was probably over:

    Conditions that JPMorgan had set for market stabilization and revival have largely been met, with recession-like pricing, a reversal in investor positioning and extraordinary fiscal stimulus, strategists led by John Normand wrote in a note Friday. Coronavirus infection rates remain a "wild card," as they're still high.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/jpmorgan-says-the-market-rout-is-probably-past-its-worst-now

    submitted by /u/goldcakes
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    The first 4 hours of the FTSE, DAX, AMX, CAC 40 and IBEX 35 have all been red

    Posted: 01 Apr 2020 04:16 AM PDT

    With some of the biggest European markets going down and with the markets in the states opening in a couple of hours, here is a quick summary of the numbers: FTSE (United Kingdom) -3.76% ... DAX (Germany) -3.60% ... AMX (Netherlands) -2.40% ... CAC 40 (France) -4.07% ... IBEX 35 (Spain) -2.45% ...

    This post is only meant to show how this economic downturn is affecting some of the major economies in Europe today, since most of the focus is usually (and understandably so) on markets like the Dow Jones and the S&P 500.

    submitted by /u/3STmotivation
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    The Nasdaq is up over 6% since October 2019. Is the future outlook for the Nasdaq stronger today than it was 6 months ago? What are your thoughts?

    Posted: 31 Mar 2020 07:12 AM PDT

    Most of last year, we had a potential crisis brewing with repo, bond yields, and weakening international markets. When the Fed came in and dropped rates three times, and then started 'intervening' in the repo markets, we saw the U.S. markets melt up from October 2019 to January.

    So, basically, this Covid-19 crash brings us back to October 2019 levels when we had all that uncertainty. The foward-looking earnings for Nasdaq entities is now 6% higher than then. Does that, to you, seem indicative of current market health?

    submitted by /u/lulzcakes
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    Long Term Leveraged ETF Strategy | TQQQ

    Posted: 31 Mar 2020 03:53 PM PDT

    The swing trading strategy I am going to share with you has produced a 815% return on 48 trades since 2-10-2010. It makes 22.31% on average when it is correct, -3.93% when it is wrong and works 37.5% of the time. I encourage discussion but please read my explanation +before jumping to conclusions. This is a back-tested strategy as you will see. The SPY during this same period returned 140%.

    This method is a modified version of what Dr. Eric Wish of UMD developed : https://wishingwealthblog.com/2017/01/tqqq-again-beats-almost-all-individual-stocks-etf-performance-since-gmi-turned-green-on-111016/

    Leveraged ETFs are very useful for day/short term traders as they increase the volatility of the underlying equity.

    Most people agree however that they are not suitable for long term investors due to high fees and volatility drag (decay). These are certainly things to think about if you decided to use these instruments.

    Volatility drag is the biggest issue as many people point out. For instance if you had 50 days straight of alternating +5% and -5% moves in the etf, at the end of the streak you would be left with 93.9% of your initial money, and a 6% loss is quit manageable. However if during the same streak you had your money in a 3x leveraged etf with +15% and -15% moves, you would be left with only an abysmal 56.6% of your initial cash.

    This is because losses work geometrically against you, consider the following

    3% loss needs a 3.09% gain to reach breakeven

    5% loss needs a 5.26% gain to reach breakeven

    10% loss needs a 11.11% gain to reach breakeven

    20% loss needs a 25% gain to reach breakeven

    25% loss needs a 33.33% gain to reach breakeven

    30% loss needs a 42.85% gain to reach breakeven

    40% loss needs a 66.66% gain to reach breakeven

    50% loss needs a 100% gain to reach breakeven

    This is why it is so important to not fall in love with a stock. Even if you are a long term investor have a line in the sand where you will sell. Otherwise you are not compounding your money, you are compounding your losses.

    I bring this up to say that a successful leveraged ETF strategy needs to take advantage of the upside possibilities while ruthlessly cutting losses if the trend breaks. The goal is to have an excellent gain to loss ratio of over 3:1. With this a strategy's break even point is a 25% success rate meaning you can be right only a quarter of the time. The actual strategy has a p/l ratio of 5.67 and a success rate of 37.5% meaning it works extremely well.

    The strategy is this:

    Create 6 short term daily EMAs, color them red, find the minimum of them

    Create 6 longer term daily EMAs color them blue, find their maximum

    Enter when the all the reds are first over the blues with a 3% stop loss. Sell when the stop loss is hit or any red EMA crosses below a blue.

    That's it, and you will find this is an excellent way of timing the market and visualizing its trend.

    I have created a python back testing program to test different length EMAs, different stop losses, adding a SMA restriction…

    You can try it for yourself here: https://repl.it/@RichardMoglenMo/RWB-with-Stop-loss

    1. Run the program by hitting the green arrow, it will have to download some libraries
    2. Enter the Ticket Symbol you want to test- I use TQQQ
    3. Enter the Start date of the test- I use 1/1/2010
    4. Enter Six Short term red emas- I use 5,6,8,10,12,15
    5. Enter Six longer term blue emas- I use 30,35,40,45,50,60
    6. If you want a simple moving average restriction enter a period (So it will only enter if the current price is over that moving average) Otherwise enter 0-I use 0
    7. Enter a stop loss % I use 3%
    8. Press enter

    My suggestions yield a return of 815% in about 10 years which would turn a 10k initial investment into 91.5k. It also outputs some key statistics such as max gain, max loss and holding periods.

    I use this strategy with a portion of my portfolio as it outperforms almost every individual stock pick during uptrends (defined as when the red emas are above blue emas in the index etfs QQQ, SPY)

    submitted by /u/Rmogo21
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    Thoughts on CSX Corporation?

    Posted: 31 Mar 2020 07:42 PM PDT

    Hello I'm Ditka. I follow the transport sector:

    CSX provides rail freight transport over a network of approximately 21,000 route miles and 36 terminals across the Eastern Half of the US. It owns approximately 4k locomotives, 60k rail cars and 18k containers. It has roughly 22k employees and I forecast them generating $12bn + in annual revenues.

    Here are my top reasons why CSX is a long-term hold for me:

    • The railroad is an essential part of the supply-chain, and despite the outbreak of COVID19, they remain open for business. In terms of volumes, carloads are down only 1.4% QTD. Core economy continues to move though, inventories have been depleted, given slow-downs in production in Asia, as well as increased demand for consumer good carloads.
    • Impressive contingency plans to avoid a network shutdown. That includes four sites which can be turned if its primary location is impacted.
    • They ended FY 2019 with 2bn in cash and 2.7x debt/EBITDA.
    • Low cost structure among its peers (operating ratio is sub 60%) as they have executed a Precision Scheduled Railroad (PSR) model for a few years now.
    submitted by /u/TheDitkaDog
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    Any Undervalued stocks with a decent FA

    Posted: 01 Apr 2020 03:25 AM PDT

    Currently looking into AAPL and TSLA. Investing more in growth for the long term rather than short term.

    submitted by /u/TheoreticalBob
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    U.S. aims to lease space in emergency oil stockpile, after buying plan canceled

    Posted: 01 Apr 2020 04:18 AM PDT

    consequence of the coronavirus for Tesla Inc

    Posted: 01 Apr 2020 03:59 AM PDT

    I think this deserves a dedicated post because many love and are bullish TSLA.

    This post is bearish, from my comment.

    Risk for TSLA is not the virus shutdown, because all competitors shut their factories, no credit due until 2021, and Musk recently got 2b$ gift card.

    Instead, the risk are

    1. EV demand drops because people are not rich any more. This depends on the gravity of the pandemic and the corresponding stimulus
    2. EV demand drops, because the green hype dies out, because people care less about environment. This again depends on the pandemic gravity.
    3. The second wave of pandemic. More specifically, the outbreak in US and whether the situation is really under control in China.
    4. Replace EV in 1. and 2. by Solar City stuffs. However this must be minor and less focused.

    For now, these risks are considered very lightly, that's why TSLA is being traded at about 124% the taking-private-funding-secured target.

    What happened so far:

    submitted by /u/portabili
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    If the US government takes 40% equity stake in airlines how will this affect share price?

    Posted: 31 Mar 2020 03:57 PM PDT

    Why don't most Tech ETFs have Amazon?

    Posted: 01 Apr 2020 03:18 AM PDT

    VGT and XLK both don't have Amazon, the only Tech ETF I can find with Amazon is IGM

    submitted by /u/shentonwaybets
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    Harvard Business Review: Understanding the Economic Shock of Coronavirus

    Posted: 31 Mar 2020 11:42 AM PDT

    https://hbr.org/2020/03/understanding-the-economic-shock-of-coronavirus

    I think this article does a really good job of explaining why we can't confidently say "It's priced in." It also provides examples of how the 2008 global financial crisis had very different impacts (V-shaped vs. U-shaped vs. L-shaped) to the real GDP of several affected countries, and explains the contributing factors that would make each path more likely. I am curious to hear the community's opinions on this piece and how it relates to our current unprecedented crisis.

    submitted by /u/HypnoticStrix
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    Anybody here not stick to their gameplan, got spooked and realized a huge loss last week?

    Posted: 31 Mar 2020 04:58 AM PDT

    Would love to hear your story

    submitted by /u/teamasperger
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    Overview of Last Week's Suspicious Insider Purchasing Activity

    Posted: 31 Mar 2020 09:45 AM PDT

    We have been looking at unusual insider compensation activity (executive purchases, sales, grants) for a while now and will start posting the previous week's findings here.

    It is still a fairly new effort and we need a bunch more time/data to verify the long-term results, but the early findings have been promising. We found $SLRX and $YTEN within 10 days of announcements that jumped their stock 25% and 40% respectively (and the stocks below beat the market by 50% since we wrote about them throughout the last week).

    1) Dynex Capital Inc ($DX) - Insider Purchases

    Dynex Form 4 -> https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-disp?action=getissuer&CIK=826675&type=&dateb=&owner=include&start=0

    From Yahoo Finance:

    Dynex Capital, Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, invests in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) on a leveraged basis in the United States.

    Dynamix was seeing some nice growth at the beginning of the year, but have fallen 41% to a price of $11.84 since reaching their high of $20.17 on February 20th.

    Their Form 4 activity shows a whole bunch of executives and directors purchasing stock over the last few days.

    Digging deeper into the purchases we can see that there are some sizable purchases in both dollar amounts and percentage sizes. We also see that some of the purchases were preferred stock purchases.

    Date Executive Name Title Type Stock Type Avg Price Total Purchased # of Shares Total Shares Share Increase
    2020-03-18 Stephen Benedetti CFO and COO P-Purchase Common $8.51 $72.3K 8.5K 119.4K 8%
    2020-03-18 Byron Boston CEO and co-CIO P-Purchase Common $7.94 $103.2K 13.0K 261.8K 5%
    2020-03-18 Jeffrey Childress VP and Controller P-Purchase Common $8.15 $16.3K 2.0K 10.6K 23%
    2020-03-18 Jeffrey Childress VP and Controller P-Purchase Series B Preferred $11.19 $1.9K 0.2K 0.2K 100%
    2020-03-17 Jeffrey Childress VP and Controller P-Purchase Series C Preferred $16.93 $27.9K 1.7K 1.7K 100%
    2020-03-18 Smriti Popenoe EVP and co-CIO P-Purchase Common $10.15 $77.1K 7.6K 68.3K 13%
    2020-03-18 Robert Salcetti Director P-Purchase Series B Preferred $12.80 $35.1K 2.7K 2.7K 100%
    2020-03-17 Barry Igdaloff Director P-Purchase Common $11.45 $1.2M 100.8K 211.4K 91%
    2020-03-17 Barry Igdaloff Director P-Purchase Series C Preferred $17.64 $20.0K 1.1K 1.1K 100%
    2020-03-16 Michael Hughes Director P-Purchase Series C Preferred $17.40 $47.0K 2.7K 2.7K 100%
    2020-03-16 David Stevens Director P-Purchase Common $11.91 $4.9K 0.4K 4.5K 10%

    Checking the actual Form 4 forms, we verify that there is no explanation or pre-arranged plan for these purchases.

    Dynex does have ownership requirements that require directors to hold 3x their retainer fee in stock, the CEO to hold 5x their salary in stock, and the other specified executives to hold 3x their salary in stock.

    Before the market crashed, all of the directors and executives were well above their ownership guidelines. The market crash pushed the CEO and EVP below their threshold, but their purchases did not put them back over the threshold (they have until December 31, 2020, to reach the threshold).

    Date Executive Name Title $ Amt Owned $ Amt Required Delta
    2020-03-18 Stephen Benedetti CFO and COO $2.6M $1.3M $1.3M
    2020-03-18 Byron Boston CEO and co-CIO $3.0M $3.5M -$479.3K
    2020-03-18 Smriti Popenoe EVP and co-CIO $788.3K $1.3M -$516.7K
    2020-03-17 Barry Igdaloff Director $2.4M $255.0K $2.2M
    2020-03-18 Robert Salcetti Director $1.1M $195.0K $935.4K
    2020-03-16 Michael Hughes Director $1.4M $255.0K $1.1M

    2) SITE Centers Corp ($SITC) - Insider Purchases

    SITE Form 4 Activity -> https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-disp?action=getissuer&CIK=894315&type=&dateb=&owner=include&start=0

    From Yahoo Finance:

    SITE Centers is an owner and manager of open-air shopping centers that provide a highly-compelling shopping experience and merchandise mix for retail partners and consumers

    The start of 2020 has been rough for SITE. They entered 2020 with a stock price near $12.75 and then saw it fall 55% to its closing price of $5.67 on March 20th.

    The recent Form 4 activity shows their CEO, CFO, and a Director making purchases on the open market. The CEO made a sizable $568,000 worth of purchases while the Director and CFO increased their positions by 11% and 23% respectively.

    Date Executive Name Title Type Stock Type Avg Price Total Purchased # of Shares Total Shares Share Increase
    2020-03-19 David Lukes CEO P-Purchase Common Shares $5.20 $520.0K 100.0K 368.2K 37%
    2020-03-19 David Lukes CEO P-Purchase Preferred Class A $12.00 $24.0K 2.0K 2.0K 100%
    2020-03-19 David Lukes CEO P-Purchase Preferred Class K $12.00 $24.0K 2.0K 2.0K 100%
    2020-03-19 Conor Fennerty CFO P-Purchase Common Shares $4.58 $50.4K 11.0K 59.7K 23%
    2020-03-19 Terrance Ahern Director P-Purchase Common Shares $3.96 $106.9K 27.0K 263.2K 11%

    The individual Form 4 forms show that there was no explanation given for the purchases, so we can assume these were not part of some pre-arranged plan.

    SITE has ownership requirements requiring the CEO to own 5x their salary in stocks, the COO and CFO to hold 3x their salaries, and the Directors to own 5x their cash retainers.

    Before the market crash, all of the executives were above the stock ownership thresholds (except for the CFO who recently became CFO and has until March 31, 2025, to meet the requirement). The market crash put the CEO well below his ownership requirement and his purchases did not put him back over the requirement.

    \ Mr. Fennerty's salary was not present in the most recent Proxy Statement because he just recently became CFO, so we just used the old CFO's salary for this table**

    Date Executive Name Title $ Amt Owned $ Amt Required Delta
    2020-03-19 David Lukes CEO $2.1M $4.3M -$2114.2K
    2020-03-19 Conor Fennerty CFO $338.2K $1.5M -$1161.8K
    2020-03-19 Terrance Ahern Director $1.5M $250.0K $1.2M

    SITE has 4 executives that must file their trades publicly, and we only see the CEO and CFO making open market purchases. This is obviously less compelling than if all 4 executives were to have made purchases, but the CEO paying over $500,000 to increase his holding by over 40% is still noteworthy.

    3) Chimera Investment Corp ($CIM) - Insider Purchases

    CIM Form 4s -> https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-disp?action=getissuer&CIK=1409493&type=&dateb=&owner=include&start=0

    We wrote about Chimera last week, but they recently amended their Form 4s to clarify that what they previously said were stock grants were actually purchases by the executives and directors.

    From Yahoo Finance:

    Chimera Investment Corporation operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States. The company, through its subsidiaries, invests in a portfolio of mortgage assets, including residential mortgage loans, agency and non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities, agency mortgage-backed securities secured by pools of commercial mortgage loans, commercial mortgage loans, and other real estate related securities

    Chimera was on a slight upward trajectory during the beginning of the year before falling 58% from their high of $22.98 to their closing price on March 20th of $9.55.

    Their Form 4 activity shows that all of their executives (and one director) made purchases (with 4 of the 5 executives making sizable six-figure purchases) on March 18th.

    Date Executive Name Title Type Share Type Avg Price $ Amount Received # of Shares Total Shares Share Increase
    2020-03-18 Gerard Creagh Director P-Purchase Common $8.44 $303.8K 36.0K 153.6K 31%
    2020-03-18 Matthew Lambiase CEO P-Purchase Common $8.51 $425.5K 50.0K 993.9K 5%
    2020-03-18 Robert Colligan CFO P-Purchase Common $9.31 $139.7K 15.0K 237.0K 7%
    2020-03-18 Mohit Marria CIO P-Purchase Common $7.75 $116.3K 15.0K 390.9K 4%
    2020-03-18 Choudhary Yarlagadda COO P-Purchase Common $7.50 $304.5K 40.6K 366.3K 12%
    2020-03-18 Phillip Kardis Chief Legal P-Purchase Common $8.11 $24.3K 3.0K 186.5K 2%

    Looking at the CEO's individual Form 4, we see that these were in fact open market purchases and not stock grants as was originally reported. The Form 4 also does not mention that these purchases are part of any pre-arranged plans.

    The Proxy Statement verifies that Chimera does have ownership guidelines for the executives and directors that require the CEO to own 5x their annual salary in stock, the other named executives to own 3x their salary, and the directors to own 5x their annual cash retainer.

    Even with the almost 60% stock decline, all of the executives and the director that purchased stock are well above their required holding threshold (except the Chief Legal Officer).

    Date Executive Name Title $ Amt Owned $ Amt Required Delta
    2020-03-18 Gerard Creagh Director $1.5M $600.0K $867.2K
    2020-03-18 Matthew Lambiase CEO $9.5M $4.3M $5.2M
    2020-03-18 Robert Colligan CFO $2.3M $1.5M $763.1K
    2020-03-18 Mohit Marria CIO $3.7M $2.4M $1.3M
    2020-03-18 Choudhary Yarlagadda COO $3.5M $2.3M $1.2M
    2020-03-18 Phillip Kardis Chief Legal $1.8M $2.3M -$468.8K

    Any time you have all of the executives making purchases in the open market when the stock price is at its low point, it is worth paying attention to.

    4) Carpenter Technology Corporation ($CRS) - Insider Purchasing

    CRS Form 4s -> https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=17843&owner=exclude&action=getcompany&Find=Search

    From Yahoo Finance:

    Carpenter Technology Corporation manufactures, fabricates, and distributes specialty metals worldwide. It operates through two segments, Specialty Alloys Operations and Performance Engineered Products. The company offers specialty alloys, including titanium alloys, powder metals, stainless steels, alloy steels, and tool steels, as well as drilling tools, and metal powders and parts.

    Carpenter Tech has been having a rough start to the year before ultimately crashing a whopping 70% to their low of $14.87 at close on March 20th.

    The Form 4 activity shows some purchasing activity by 3 of their executives and 1 of their Directors. Not the most compelling purchasing activity as only 3 of the 5 executives made purchases and most of the purchases weren't huge, but the General Counsel did purchase $220,000 worth of stock increasing his shares by 49%.

    Date Executive Name Title Type Stock Type Avg Price Total Purchased # of Shares Total Shares Share Increase
    2020-03-18 James Dee General Counsel P-Purchase Common $22.00 $220.0K 10.0K 30.5K 49%
    2020-03-18 Tony Thene CEO P-Purchase Common $17.72 $97.5K 5.5K 164.1K 3%
    2020-03-18 Brian Malloy Chief Commercial Officer P-Purchase Common $17.63 $52.9K 3.0K 30.5K 11%
    2020-03-10 Robert McMaster Director P-Purchase Common $28.05 $42.1K 1.5K 5.1K 42%

    The individual Form 4 forms do not give any explanation for these purchases, so it is safe to assume these purchases are not for any pre-arranged plans.

    The Proxy Statement tells us that Carpenter Tech has stock ownership guidelines that require the CEO to own 5x their base salary in stock, the SVPs to own 3x their base salaries, and the VPs to own 2x their base salaries.

    Before the market crash, all of the executives were well above their required ownership amount, but the crash put everyone well below their requirements and none of their purchasing activity has pushed them over the requirement.

    Date Executive Name Title $ Amt Owned $ Amt Required Delta
    2020-03-18 James Dee General Counsel $455.6K $846.0K -$390.4K
    2020-03-18 Tony Thene CEO $2.4M $4.5M -$2007.8K
    2020-03-18 Brian Malloy Chief Commercial Officer $455.7K $849.2K -$393.5K
    2020-03-10 Robert McMaster Director $75.5K $330.0K -$254.5K
    submitted by /u/Connorvo
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    Some Potentially Undervalued Stocks

    Posted: 31 Mar 2020 07:23 PM PDT

    Hi, I'm looking at putting some money into a few different small and micro-caps, and one big boy. Thought I'd put them out there and see if anyone has any thoughts on them.

    Some background: I used to trade individual stocks (we're not talking much, I had maybe $20k in a fund) but stopped about 6 years ago, as I just didn't have time to keep up with the market anymore. I moved everything into Vanguard ETFs and all that is fine and still sitting there. I have more time available now, as well as more money, and it seems like as good a time as any to get back into the market with some money I can afford to play around with (and lose without it ruining me).

    I try to stay away from industries I can't understand. Biotech, for example. I just trade long, nothing short. I'll never beat the pros and the fees would kill me anyway. With one real exception, GM, I'm just looking for undervalued small or micro-caps with solid fundamentals under the hood and room for growth. Ideally with a dividend but not required. Should be earning solid cash flow and limited, if any, long-term debt. Right now, I'm mostly looking at stocks trading under $50/share. Here's what I'm looking at:

    ​

    Price P/E EPS P/B P/FCF Div. NCAVP CAGR
    DMLP $9.31 6.06 $1.50 2.83 7.13 15.95% 0.68 13%
    OSK $64.33 7.90 $7.81 1.46 10.65 2.07% 5.21 53%
    NC $27.98 4.94 $5.66 0.65 8.92 2.83% 6.47 -162%
    KELYA $12.69 4.42 $2.84 0.37 6.87 2.53% 4.85 -
    FL $22.05 4.96 $4.59 0.94 6.65 7.17% -16.57 17%
    GM $20.78 4.66 $4.57 0.73 6.35 7.11% -74.95 -206%
    PZN $4.46 10.01 $0.45 2.54 5.04 12.22% 0.52 9%
    GLDD $8.30 9.35 $0.86 1.79 3.48 0.00% 4.97 -282%
    NVFY $1.10 2.82 $0.41 0.09 1.00 0.00% 12.14 -14%

    They all appear to me to have good fundamentals. Low LT D/E, good cash flow. Reasonable P/Es, not overvalued, and room for growth. I've been digging into the 10-Ks and I don't see anything glaring. Foot Locker feels like one of Buffett's cigarette butts. Maybe it's in a dying retail business but, based on their fundamentals, I think they have a few good puffs left.

    NVFY is really interesting to me. I can't decide if I want to put money into them or not. They've got a really good business selling furniture, mostly in LA, Hong Kong, and Macau. They're sitting on a ton of assets, worth more than their price. No debt, great cash flow. Seem to be making money hand-over-fist. But they just got hit with a series of related class action lawsuits and coronavirus has basically stopped their business in its tracks. So the fundamentals are really good but they have these pretty big obstacles right now that could kill them. It's an interesting situation.

    I don't think I need to write out a treatise for each unless someone wants to know my thinking, but they all look good to me with the possible exception of NVFY. Curious if anyone has any thoughts about them. Feel free to mock me if these are stupid thoughts.

    submitted by /u/Reptar4President
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    Is the rally over? Quite possibly

    Posted: 01 Apr 2020 05:33 AM PDT

    Futures are already down 3% as we kick off Q2.

    Consumer confidence came our yesterday and was down to 120, unemployment report is coming out tomorrow and expected to be egregious.

    White house held a conference last night and finally admitted to how bad this virus is. Dr. Deborah Birx presented the new goalposts in a graph that shows a "no intervention" case (with more than 1.5M American deaths) and a better-case "flattened" curve by following government guidelines, that accounts for 100,000-240,000 American deaths. Trump also said "We're going to go through a very tough two weeks"

    I suspect we will continue to drop this week. I know a lot of this news was expected, but does anyone have other ideas about how the market will react to this? Dow 31k? (That last bit was sarcasm)

    submitted by /u/pepesilvia189
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    What US-growth stocks do you consider undervalued at the moment?

    Posted: 01 Apr 2020 05:25 AM PDT

    US markets has recovered some % from the last week, but is still down from 1 month ago. Which US-growth stocks do you consider undervalued?

    Please provide reasoning as well if you do decide to answer.

    submitted by /u/zigsap
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    Question for the Canadians: how are you investing right now with the dollar being so low?

    Posted: 31 Mar 2020 11:45 PM PDT

    What stocks have you made serious gains on, and why?

    Posted: 01 Apr 2020 04:24 AM PDT

    The title of this post really.

    I see a lot of people asking "what to buy?" But I'm really interested in success stories.

    For me I did very well buying EA last October-ish at the low $70 and sold if at about $110.

    I just bought when they hit a bit of a PR shit storm, knew it couldn't last forever and it didn't.

    submitted by /u/BuyLowSellNever
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    Microsoft and Amazon finished the 1st quarter higher as the rest of the market tanked

    Posted: 31 Mar 2020 03:51 PM PDT

    Shares of Microsoft and Amazon closed the year's first quarter in the black, while its tech peers dropped due to impacts from COVID-19. Microsoft stock closed up .00006% in the past three months, while Amazon rose 5.43% in what is the broader markets worst first quarter ever.

    submitted by /u/jcarmona24
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