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    Saturday, February 29, 2020

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 04:10 AM PST

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    This sub needs much stronger moderation. I have seen a sharp decline in its quality of posts and comments.

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 11:53 PM PST

    Over the last couple of years that I have lurked on this sub, I have observed a noticeable decline in the quality of the posts and comments. The conversation here used to be much more rigorous and collegiate in its analysis of investments.  

       

    An example of one, out of many, low quality posts: https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/fb6y7c/coronavirus_in_idaho/

    Burner account cause this info isn't supposed to be public yet. Coronavirus may or may not have multiple cases in idaho now. Prepare yourself for monday.  

       

    The linked post above is highly dubious, probably made by OP to spread misinformation about the Coronavirus (because he probably bought puts). This kind of low quality post and misinformation should not be allowed on this sub. We did not come here to read misinformation, or make posts that belong on /r/wallstreetbets. We did not come here to look at memes or "get rich" schemes. We came here for high quality discussions on investing.  

       

    I am really sad that this sub has started to turn into /r/wallstreetbets. I actually hate to say this, but the quality of this sub has declined so much that I sometimes find more useful advice on /r/wsb than here.  

       

    Mods, this is not an attack on the hard work you do, but we really need much stronger moderation in this sub. It is not about limiting free speech. It is about maintaining the integrity and quality of the sub.

    More concretely, comments that are borderline low quality can be downvoted by the sub, comments that obviously fall below a certain quality bar should be removed via moderation, and egregiously low quality comments like above should result in temporary banning of the member.

    submitted by /u/WarrenBuffetsLostSon
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    My Coronavirus Stock Portfolio strategy

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 05:51 AM PST

    Thought I would add something for a change, take this FWIW. Here is my strategy:

    1 - DCA I am buying this week. I will be buying next week and the week after. Catch a falling knife, wait for the bottom, blahs blahs blahs. I am buying. I am mostly in index funds, although I have positions in several large companies also. I have been around a while, possibly longer than many people here. I was also buying in 2008 when people were freaking out and I have done quite well

    2 - Unsubscribe from this sub Seriously. This place has become a fear mongering echo chamber lately. Last week people were asking if they should buy at all time highs. Now people are shitting themselves because everything is on sale. I am going to Unsubscribe and try to focus more on my side hustles to generate more cash for buying (see item #1). I am not saying this to be a dick. I am saying it because it is legit unhealthy to freak out and surround yourself with other people that are freaking out.

    Take a deep breath. New flu strains surface from time to time, it is very cyclical. Yes, things will get a little worse, but it will rebound and people who buy will be the beneficiaries (don't buy with your rent money obviously, just be smart). Watch what happens when a vaccine is announced.

    Just my two cents. I am going to Unsubscribe now and go for a run. Because good mental & physical health is key.

    Downvote away and peace out brothers.

    submitted by /u/progman2000
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    China pmi is out guys, worse then 2008, record low

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 07:12 PM PST

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3052985/coronavirus-chinas-factories-activity-plunges-all-time-low

    China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 35.7 in February from 50.0 in January, below the 38.8 figure reported in November 2008

    The non-manufacturing PMI – a gauge of sentiment in the services and construction sectors – also dropped to 29.6 from 54.1 in January, the lowest since November 2011

    submitted by /u/hoseex999
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    S&P Futures jumped up almost 100 dolars just minutes before close....anyone knows WTF?

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 01:09 PM PST

    This week officially closes as the worst week since Oct '08

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 02:48 PM PST

    Edit: for the S&P 500/SPX

    Pulled from: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?period1=1109548800&period2=1582848000&interval=1wk&filter=history&frequency=1wk

    Date Close drop
    5-Oct-08 899.22 -18.20%
    24-Feb-20 2,954.22 -11.49%
    28-Sep-08 1,099.23 -9.40%
    17-Nov-08 800.03 -8.39%
    31-Jul-11 1,199.38 -7.19%
    17-Dec-18 2,416.62 -7.05%
    2-Mar-09 683.38 -7.03%
    16-Feb-09 770.05 -6.87%
    19-Oct-08 876.77 -6.78%
    18-Sep-11 1,136.43 -6.54%
    submitted by /u/pikindaguy
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    Dow tumbles 1,000 points for third time this week as Friday’s sell-off worsens

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 07:19 AM PST

    Markets recover losses as Powell 'vows' to act and save the markets. The U.S. 1, 2, 3, and 5 Year Treasuries all dip below 1%. The market is now pricing in a greater than 90% chance for two rate cuts next next month.

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 01:19 PM PST

    When bonds return effectively negative yields, they are no longer bonds in the traditional sense. We're seeing a worldwide erasure of an entire asset class as treasury bonds no longer yield positive returns after inflation. The U.S. 30 Year was, before this COVID-19 panic, returning barely at or above inflation. Every bond now, for almost every developed nation around the world, is essentially a penalty.

    submitted by /u/lulzcakes
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    Fed's Powell says coronavirus poses 'evolving risks,' pledges to 'act as appropriate' for economy

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 11:32 AM PST

    The thing about "buying the dip"

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 07:01 AM PST

    The S&P at 2900 is basically back to October 2019 prices.

    If you weren't buying all the stocks back then, why are you so excited to buy them now? The future earnings projections and risk from corona has certainly increased.

    Buying the dip from a long term perspective is fine but dont think this will definitely recover ASAP like it did in December 2018. it might but this may also lead to further price declines.

    On an individual stock level, there's probably some values that are beginning to emerge but the overall market is probably not that amazing a deal just yet with all the unknowns. If your investment horizon is 10+ years, you're good to go but be wary if you're investing money you need 6 months from today.

    Keep DCAing via the 401ks and HSAs and keep ignoring the day to day fluctuations and you'll be fine long term but buying now with the expectation of quick returns is a risky proposition.

    submitted by /u/timeinthemarket
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    What's wrong with buying the dip...

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 08:47 PM PST

    If you expect to get something at a discount/fair value and are willing to accept some short-term losses?

    I don't understand why people on this subreddit discourage buying stocks during a market correction. You are likely not going to buy them when they reach their low point, but they're bound to go back up in the long-term, and you would be purchasing them at a discount.

    Anyways, I was thinking about buying into these companies if they drop to the following prices.

    MSFT: $140, SBUX: $65, TGT: $75, DIS: $95, AMD: $35

    submitted by /u/augustopinochet101
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    Fake ZOOM up 50% today, real ZM down 13%

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 08:48 AM PST

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZOOM/

    The "real" zoom has had a good run up but down 13% today https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZM

    submitted by /u/pikindaguy
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    What are your tips for beginners in the stock market, and success stories?

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 04:02 AM PST

    Corona Dutch Surge

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 03:57 AM PST

    So yesterday in a university at Twente multiple students were tested positive for Corona. Today the Dutch news spoke over more than 100 cases of Corona. Shit's spreading like crazy. I'm really curious about Monday market open. What do you guys think? Short term puts are still a way?

    submitted by /u/zen_dts
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    A red or green Monday?

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 12:37 PM PST

    Would anyone like to hedge their bets as to which? Would be interesting to know given then intense speculation

    submitted by /u/AskingThings99
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    Gold Joins the Virus Bloodshed With Biggest Slide Since 2013

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 10:39 AM PST

    The iconic "safe asset" today (Friday) suffered a 4.5% drop - its biggest since 2013 - in the middle of a stock market selloff.

    submitted by /u/jinlonn
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    In Rare Statement, Fed Chair Keeps Rate Cut on Table as Virus Risks Roil Markets

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 06:42 PM PST

    The market is now officially pricing in a solid ZERO percent chance that we DON'T have a rate cut in 19 days. And a >51% chance for two rate cuts at once.

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 07:24 AM PST

    Please discuss.

    submitted by /u/lulzcakes
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    There's a whole lot of drug shortages right now. China isn't keeping up with supply and that is going to cause a problem.

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 04:04 PM PST

    It just blew up this week. Go to the 'New and Updated' tab and then click on 'Updated.'

    FDA Drug Shortages

    https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/drugshortages/default.cfm

    submitted by /u/BicycleGripDick
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    What’s something positive you got out of this week?

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 07:42 PM PST

    Lots of negativity and red this week, but shit happens.

    What's a positive investment/financial move you were able to get out of this week and you feel accomplished for?

    Keep it short and simple-ish.

    submitted by /u/businesspajamas
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    10-year Treasury yield collapses to another record low below 1.12%, 2-year rate tumbles to 0.9%

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 12:20 PM PST

    If somebody gave you $50k right now What would you do?

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 03:59 AM PST

    Title. You have to invest it all immediately.

    submitted by /u/Cheechoo56in05-06
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    Some are panicked others seemed thrilled....

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 10:21 AM PST

    Are you buying or selling right now? Why? I'm genuinely curious as to how everyone is reacting to the market right now and what's your reasoning behind it.

    submitted by /u/realmoney_supply
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    Corona Virus Research and Stock DD: Part 2

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 03:33 AM PST

    Link to Initial Post

    As 19th century German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer claimed, "All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident."

    The Coronavirus outbreak has reached the "highest level" of risk for the world, the World Health Organization announced today. Bill Gates calls coronavirus a 'once-in-a-century' pathogen. The Dow fell over 3,500 points this week.

    The US Federal Reserve's Chairman stated "U.S. economy remain strong", Iran has no plans to quarantine cities, The acting US administration is lying to the public, and has barred the top US disease expert from speaking freely to the public.

    • 84,154 confirmed cases worldwide (7 day Increase:🔺5,958 or 7.61%)
    • 2,876 fatalities

    Countries with First Case Outbreaks between 2/26 - 2/28

    1. Mexico
    2. Azerbaijan
    3. Belarus
    4. Lithuania
    5. Nigeria
    6. San Marino
    7. Netherlands
    8. Estonia
    9. Denmark
    10. Romania
    11. Norway
    12. Georgia
    13. North Macedonia
    14. Greece
    15. Brazil
    16. Iceland
    17. Monaco

    Keep in mind the asymptomatic period was reported to be at most 27 days and patients whom recovered are developing the coronavirus and testing positive again, which means public exposure in these countries could have begun weeks ago. By Monday, I estimate that there will be at least 2,000 total new cases in the above countries experiencing the new outbreaks alone.

    Why does this matter? This weekend the Corona Virus news will be flowing steadily, thus IMO influencing the virus stocks to continue to rise on Monday and throughout next week.

    Controlling the outbreak is going to become increasingly difficult.

    To control the majority of viral outbreaks, for R0 of 2-5 more than 70% of contacts had to be traced, and for an R0 of 3·5 more than 90% of contacts had to be traced.The delay between symptom onset and isolation had the largest role in determining whether an outbreak was controllable when R0 was 1·5. For R0 values of 2·5 or 3·5, if there were 40 initial cases, contact tracing and isolation were only potentially feasible when less than 1% of transmission occurred before symptom onset.

    Researchers estimate the R0 value of COVID-19 to be likely between 4.7 and 6.6. Further, they speculate that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

    The Case of Africa

    With the continent's high volume of air traffic and trade between China new outbreaks are inevitable.

    Without treatment or vaccines, and without pre-existing immunity, sustained Corona Virus outbreaks might be devastating due to the multiple health challenges the continent already faces: rapid population growth and increased movement of people; existing endemic diseases, such as human immunodeficiency virus, tuberculosis, and malaria; remerging and emerging infectious pathogens such as Ebola virus disease, Lassa haemorrhagic fever, and others; and increasing incidence of non-communicable diseases.

    Governments are already anticipating demand and addressing supply chain management, mapping, and stockpiling of COVID-19 response needs: large quantities of personal protective equipment, gloves, surgical masks, coveralls, and hoods, and medical countermeasures like antiviral agents.

    IMO, the market for the products of Corona Virus stocks will increase exponentially when new outbreaks begin in this continent.

    The Stock Market

    Things are about to get way worse.

    The Harvard Business review predicts that the peak of the impact of Covid-19 on global supply chains will occur in mid-March, forcing thousands of companies to throttle down or temporarily shut assembly and manufacturing plants in the U.S. and Europe. The activity of Chinese manufacturing plants has fallen in the past month and is expected to remain depressed for months.

    Brace for a major effect on manufacturing worldwide. It will begin to hit full force in two to three weeks and could last for months. IMO, the only safe plays are plastic, Biotech, and Biopharmaceutical stocks. Liquidate your other positions now so you can buy back in lower.

    The Vaccines Stocks

    According to the WHO, more than 20 coronavirus vaccines are in development around the world. IMO, I am waiting to invest in the below companies once they release more data on their Corona virus vaccines.

    Gilead Sciences ($GILD)🔻6% this week

    Shares Outstanding 1,263,640,000, Float 1,257,113,299, Insider Ownership 0.53%, Institutional Ownership 85.30%

    • On 2/26 announced that it's initiating two late-stage clinical studies to evaluate its experimental antiviral drug remdesivir in treating adults diagnosed with coronavirus disease COVID-19.

    • Currently evaluating the antiviral drug in two studies in China, and recently began a study in the U.S. led by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).

    Moderna INC ($MRNA) 🔺 34% this week

    Shares Outstanding 362,853,000, Float 220,527,176, Insider Ownership 2.90%, Institutional Ownership 49.10%

    • Recently announced that it has shipped the first batch of its experimental COVID-19 vaccine, known as mRNA-1273, to U.S. governmental researchers at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. An early-stage trial for the vaccine is slated to kick off this April.

    • CEO cautions that an approved treatment is more than a year away.

    Novavax ($NVAX) 🔺 93% this week

    Shares Outstanding 32,122,600, Float 31,917,176, Insider Ownership 0.10%, Institutional Ownership 21.40%

    • On 2/26 announced progress in its efforts to develop a novel vaccine to protect against coronavirus disease COVID-19. Novavax has produced and is currently assessing multiple nanoparticle vaccine candidates in animal models prior to identifying an optimal candidate for human testing, which is expected to begin by the end of spring 2020.

    NanoViricides Inc. ($NNVC) 🔻 5% this week

    Shares Outstanding 3,854,000, Float 3,249,889, Insider Ownership 15.64%, Institutional Ownership 2.00%

    Vaccine Manufacturer

    Ibio Inc. ($IBIO)🔺 665% this week

    Shares Outstanding 76,195,500, Float 72,305,339, Insider Ownership 41.32%, Institutional Ownership 10.00%

    The Testing Stock

    Co-Diagnostics ($CODX)🔺 293% this week

    Shares Outstanding 24,916,000, Float 16,954,890, Insider Ownership 26.66%, Institutional Ownership 3.70%

    • CODX's CDI test is able to detect 2019-nCoV in asymptomatic patients, is cost efficient, and has the ability to run 48 samples at once. High sample size is important due to governments looking to stock health clinics. The CoDx design software automates the discovery process and helps design the CoPrimers faster than could be done by hand.

    • On 2/24 received CE mark in the European Union for its COVID-19 test.

    • CODX's test are reportedly, "easier to use than those from the CDC"

    • CEO reported received overwhelming interest in our novel coronavirus diagnostic from all over the world since first announcing its development a month ago.

    • In a 2/21 interview CODX's CEO stated, "they are in the middle of talks with the FDA, who have been very responsive".

    • Maxim Group recently wrote up a review of the company and stock, which was very promising.

    • Last public offering on 2/12

    OpGen Inc ($OPGN) 🔺 112% this week

    Shares Outstanding 5,602,000, Float 5,560,982, Insider Ownership 0.35%, Institutional Ownership 14.10%

    • Collaborating directly with Chinese genomics companies (BGI) in making molecular testing for the new coronavirus.

    • BGI was the first to sequence the genome of 2019-nCoV and has developed a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for its detection.

    • Chain reaction test already obtained approval by the Chinese National Medical Products Administration.

    Medical Supply Stocks

    "Health systems around the world are just not ready," Dr Mike Ryan, head of the WHO emergencies program, told a news briefing.

    The FDA is keenly aware that the outbreak will likely affect the medical product supply chain, including potential disruptions to suppliers shortages of critical medical products in the US. The US relies heavily on Chinese-made medical devices, with their supply chain disrupted domestics medical supply companies have skyrocket.

    Alpha Pro Tech, Ltd. ($APT) 🔺 215% this week

    Shares Outstanding 13,021,000, Float 10,133,697, Insider Ownership 22.14% , Institutional Ownership 25.50%

    Allied Healthcare Products Inc. ($AHPI) 🔺 832% this week

    Shares Outstanding 4,014,000, Float 2,286,607, Insider Ownership 2.30%, Institutional Ownership 10.00%

    • AHPI is a leading manufacturer of medical gas construction equipment, respiratory therapy equipment, home healthcare products, and emergency medical supplies. Our products appear worldwide in a range of medical applications, including hospital care, sub-acute treatment, long-term care, home healthcare, and medical emergencies.

    • The Company's revenues are derived primarily from the sales of respiratory products, medical gas equipment and emergency medical products. The products are generally sold directly to distributors, customers affiliated with buying groups, individual customers and construction contractors, throughout the world.

    Harvard Bioscience ($HBIO) 🔺 25% this week

    Shares Outstanding 38,066,000, Float 33,950,000, Insider Ownership 2.60%, Institutional Ownership 67.00%

    Additional: $LAKE🔺40% this week, $BIMI🔺5% this week, $LLIT🔻4% this week

    The USA

    More cases are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. It's also likely that person-to-person spread will continue to occur, including in the United States.

    Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and transportation industry may also be affected. Health care providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed.

    Congress is working toward approving $6-8 billion to fight coronavirus. White House Director of Legislative Affairs stated the goal is to have Trump sign the funding package next week.

    As of 2/28. there are now 61 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus in the United States, according to an update today by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. These include:

    • 43 people who were aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship

    • 3 people repatriated from China

    • 15 US cases

    The 15 US cases include nine in California, one in Massachusetts, one in Washington state, one in Arizona, two in Illinois and one in Wisconsin. Among these cases, there are two instances of person-to-person transmission, one in Illinois and one in California. The latest case in California did not have any relevant travel history or known contact with another infected person, suggesting it could be the first instance of "community spread" of the virus in the United States, according to health officials.

    The CDC aims to have ALL state and local health departments testing for coronavirus by end of next week. Word choice of all is interesting here, we already know that the CDC didn't have an ample supply of test kits and they were reported as inaccurate last week. If the were going to provide each state and local health departments with testing capabilities, this might be a signal that test kits developed in the private sector will be distributed.

    Looking Forward to Next Week

    IMO, the virus news this weekend will be off the charts. As new outbreaks occur and the sustained outbreaks continue, the demand for these corona virus stocks will rise.

    I still stand by the recommendation from my initial posting, in which I suggested investing into the companies producing test kits and personal protection / medical equipment.

    I am still currently holding $APT, $AHPI, and $CODX. No vaccine companies at the moment. I feel that there is a great deal of profit to be made swinging these stocks using 15 second candle chart & the 50, 100, and 200 day moving average. Take a look at how the stock behaved the last two days and find a plan that can work for you. Watch the volume in premarket as well on the various virus stock to get a sense of where the interest is for that day.

    My Portfolio Breakdown:

    • 65.5% AHPI: On Friday AHPI reached a crazy premarket high of $67 a share. Upon market opening, price dropped steaply down to $16. Looks to be continuing along a trend line for now. The reason I increased my holding % here is because the float is considerably smaller than APT. https://imgur.com/u9BO2UY

    • 6.3% APT: Similarly to AHPI, the price reached a big high premarket and corrected its self to the support from 2/27. https://imgur.com/orOnmri

    • 28.2% CODX: Big swings here. Had been previously following the 50 day moving average and corrected down to the 200 day / trend line. Still waiting on FDA approval or PR from the company on order numbers. Will sell upon receiving FDA approval for their test kits. https://imgur.com/MTTw8Y1

    News Sources:

    submitted by /u/BPBT2020
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    Stock simulation apps with options

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 05:43 PM PST

    Looking for a IOS simulation app that has options and live market so I can short sell, only ones I can find are the ones that use a web browser and I prefer a streamlined app experience, thanks

    submitted by /u/memeoi
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