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    Stocks - Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning January 6th, 2020

    Stocks - Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning January 6th, 2020


    Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning January 6th, 2020

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 06:26 AM PST

    Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.

    Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning January 6th, 2020.

    Geopolitical tensions could hold back stocks in the week ahead, as investors await jobs report - (Source)


    Geopolitical concerns could continue to weigh on stocks in the week ahead, leaving investors wondering whether Middle East tensions will be the catalyst for a much anticipated market pullback.


    Stocks sold off Friday, the second trading day of the year, after a rally to new highs on Thursday. The market was slammed after the U.S. killed Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani, sparking a rally in oil prices and raising concerns Iran will take some retaliatory action.


    The big event in the coming week is the December employment report, expected to show 160,000 payrolls were added and average earnings rose 3.1% year-over-year, according to Refinitiv. The jobs report is especially important after December's ISM manufacturing data Friday was surprisingly negative and the weakest in more than a decade.


    The S&P 500 ended the four-day week at 3,235, with a loss of 0.2%, after Friday's 0.7% decline. Treasury yields retreated on Friday, as buyers moved into the safety of bonds and the 10-year yield was at 1.78%.


    "This was a textbook rationale for a bout of profit taking, but that said, I don't think it's dramatic," said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. "Nonetheless, the question will be when do buyers come in ... Much will depend on this weekend and next week in terms of headlines from both the White House and Iran."


    Some analysts have been looking for a minor selloff in stocks after the fourth quarter's 8.5% gain in the S&P 500. But whether Friday's decline is the start of something bigger is unclear.


    "It could be, but only in retrospect will you know for sure," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.


    Boockvar said if Iran takes some minor action, the market could shrug it off, oil could lose its gains, and stocks could move higher again.


    "We may see Treasurys continue to get a big bid, gold get a bid and the safe-haven currencies get a bid. If we go into things next week and all things are quiet, the market will pay attention to the data," Krosby said.


    Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities, expects to see Treasury yields lower initially. "I think short-term, the geopolitical risk is probably going to override any fundamental views that people have of the marketplace," he said.


    But there could be a catalyst for some Treasury selling with the issuance of high level of corporate bonds in the coming week. Faranello expects the year to start off strong, with corporate treasurers looking to raise about $30 billion to $35 billion in the debt market.


    Strategists said they will be looking closely at the jobs data after Friday's surprisingly weak manufacturing survey from the Institute for Supply Management, which was expected to have been better because of the trade agreement.


    Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont, said the survey actually took place before the trade deal was announced, and he's waiting for the results of the next couple of reports.


    He expects to see 165,000 jobs added in December, off of 266,000 in November, which was in part skewed by the end of GM's strike. "I think there's a little upside risk. It seems like we saw a pretty strong Christmas season," he said, adding there could have been more hiring than was factored into seasonal adjustments.


    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Indices for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

    Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

    Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

    Typical January Trading: Volatile Last 20 Years

    Yesterday major indexes continued their recent trend of strength on the first trading day of 2020. While today the market has turned weaker on escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. This type of volatility was once quite rare in January. However since 2000, the S&P 500 has declined ten times in twenty years in January. This recent weakness can be seen in the above January seasonal pattern chart.

    Over the last 21 years, Only NASDAQ has posted a full-month average gain. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have started January positive, only to surrender early-month gains by the eighth trading day. Greatest weakness has appeared just after mid-month, the eleventh trading day. Mild average losses on or around the eleventh trading day quickly swell to over 2% for DJIA and nearly as much for S&P 500 and Russell 1000.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    A Banner Year for US Equities

    2019 was surely a banner year for US equities. With a total return of 31.5%, the S&P 500's gain in 2019 was nearly three times the historical average 12-month return of 11.7%. That's strong! In the chart below we compare the S&P 500's annualized returns over the last one, two, five, ten, and twenty years to its average annualized returns over those same time frames since 1928. While the one-year return sticks out like a sore thumb, we would note that the S&P 500's annualized returns over the last two, three, and ten years are also above average. Almost as notable as the fact that the one year return has been so much stronger than average is that the S&P 500's two-year return is less than two percentage points above its historical average. That just shows how bad 2018 was! Looking further out, the only time frame where returns are below average is over the last twenty years where the 6.1% annualized gain is almost five percentage points below the historical average. Over a full twenty years, that's a difference of tripling your investment versus making eight times your investment!

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The chart below compares how current returns during the above time frames rank on a percentile basis relative to all other periods. The S&P 500's one-year return ranks in the 85th percentile which is pretty extreme. For the two, five, and ten year periods, though, current returns are much more middle of the road. Conversely, as stretched as extreme to the upside that the one-year return is relative to all other periods, the twenty-year return is even more depressed to the downside. At just 4.6, more than 95% of all other 20-year periods have been better than the last 20.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Finally, as mentioned above the last year has certainly been a strong one, and it follows a year where returns had been abnormally poor. The chart below shows the rolling 12-month total return for the S&P 500 going back to 1990. The gain of 31.49% over the last year was the strongest for the S&P 500 in six years coming up just shy of the 32.39% gain in 2013. Last year at this time, though, the S&P 500 was down over 4% on a total return basis in the prior 12 months.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    2019 and 2020 Dogs of the Dow

    The Dogs of the Dow strategy is a simple, hands-off investment approach that says to buy the 10 highest yielding stocks in the Dow 30 at the start of each year. With the calendar turning over from 2019 to 2020, below is a look at how the Dogs strategy performed in 2019. As shown, the 10 Dogs posted a total return of 19.38% in 2019, which was below the 25% return for the Dow and well below the 28% that the 20 non-Dogs returned. The biggest winner in the Dogs in 2019 was JP Morgan (JPM) with a gain of 47.27%, but Pfizer's (PFE) decline of 6.92% really hurt overall performance.

    The 20 non-Dogs were led by Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Visa (V), and United Tech (UTX), while Walgreens Boots (WBA) and 3M (MMM) were the two non-Dogs that fell in 2019. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our Trend Analyzer tool and track key trends in individual stocks and major ETFs.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Moving on to 2020, below is a list of this year's Dogs of the Dow. Eight of the ten Dogs from 2019 remain on the list, while 3M (MMM) and Walgreens Boots (WBA) -- the two non-Dogs that fell in 2019 -- have replaced JP Morgan (JPM) and Procter & Gamble (PG) -- the two biggest gainers of the Dogs in 2019. Dow Inc. (DOW) is the highest yielding Dog at 5.12%, followed by Exxon (XOM), IBM, and Verizon (VZ), which all have dividend yields above 4%.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Full Year 2019, Q4, and December Asset Class Total Returns

    Below are the final total return performance numbers for key ETFs across asset classes in 2019. For each ETF, we also include its performance in Q4 and December.

    The S&P 500 rallied 2.9% in December and 8.99% in Q4 to finish the full year up 31.22%. The Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was by far the best performing US index ETF in 2019 with a gain of 38.96%, and it was the third best ETF in the entire matrix. The title of best performing ETF in 2019 goes to the S&P 500 Technology sector ETF (XLK), which rallied 49.86%. Remember, 40% of XLK is made up of just Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT), which gained 89% and 58% in 2019, respectively. The Russia stock market ETF (RSX) was the second biggest winner in the matrix with a 2019 total return of 40.79%.

    Everywhere you look across the equity landscape, there were big winners in 2019, but the weakest area of the market was the Energy sector ETF (XLE). Even still, XLE managed to put up double-digit percentage gains on the year at +11.74%.

    In the commodities space, we saw oil gain 32.61% in 2019, which actually bested the gain for the S&P 500. Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) both put in solid gains in the mid-teens, while the perpetually losing natural gas ETF (UNG) was the only ticker in the matrix that fell across all three time frames (December, Q4, and full year).

    Looking at fixed income, the aggregate bond market ETFs (AGG and BND) posted total returns of 8%+, while the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) gained 14% on the year. Q4 and December were tough for fixed income, however, as rates moved higher.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

    January Almanac: Average Performance Slips in Presidential Election Years

    January has quite a reputation on Wall Street as an influx of cash from yearend bonuses and annual allocations typically propels stocks higher. January ranks #1 for NASDAQ (since 1971), but fifth on the S&P 500 and sixth for DJIA since 1950. It is the end of the best three-month span and holds a full docket of indicators and seasonalities.

    DJIA and S&P rankings did slip from 2000 to 2016 as both indices suffered losses in ten of those seventeen Januarys with three in a row, 2008, 2009 and 2010 and then again in 2014 to 2016. January 2009 has the dubious honor of being the worst January on record for DJIA (-8.8%) and S&P 500 (-8.6%) since 1901 and 1931 respectively. Last year, January was downright stellar after the worst December since 1931 for DJIA and S&P 500.

    In election years, Januarys have been weaker. DJIA and S&P 500 slip to number #8 while DJIA average performance dips negative. NASDAQ slips to #3, but average performance remains respectable at 1.7%.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending January 3rd, 2020

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1.5.20

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)


    Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-


    • $CMC
    • $WBA
    • $BBBY
    • $STZ
    • $LEN
    • $CALM
    • $SMPL
    • $RPM
    • $ANGO
    • $AZZ
    • $KBH
    • $UNF
    • $MSM
    • $INFY
    • $SCHN
    • $SNX
    • $AYI
    • $GBX
    • $HELE
    • $SAR
    • $EXFO
    • $NTIC
    • $LNN
    • $WDFC
    • $KRUS
    • $FC
    • $SLP

    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:


    Monday 1.6.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Monday 1.6.20 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    NONE.


    Tuesday 1.7.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 1.7.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 1.8.2 0Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 1.8.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 1.9.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 1.9.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 1.10.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 1.10.20 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    NONE.


    lululemon athletica inc. $229.38

    lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, December 11, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.93 per share on revenue of $896.50 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.98 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.90 to $0.92 per share on revenue of $880.00 million to $890.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.00% with revenue increasing by 19.91%. Short interest has increased by 9.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.0% above its 200 day moving average of $182.08. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, December 6, 2019 there was some notable buying of 927 contracts of the $260.00 call expiring on Friday, December 13, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.1% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Commercial Metals Company $22.18

    Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, January 6, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $1.45 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.59 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 60.00% with revenue increasing by 13.52%. Short interest has decreased by 22.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.0% above its 200 day moving average of $18.18. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.1% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc $59.08

    Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, January 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.40 per share on revenue of $34.63 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.41 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.11% with revenue increasing by 2.48%. Short interest has decreased by 30.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.3% above its 200 day moving average of $55.08. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. $16.08

    Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. (BBBY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, January 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $2.86 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.04 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 83.33% with revenue decreasing by 5.68%. Short interest has decreased by 7.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 65.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 24.8% above its 200 day moving average of $12.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, December 27, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,141 contracts of the $17.00 put expiring on Friday, February 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.3% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Constellation Brands, Inc. $189.53

    Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, January 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.90 per share on revenue of $1.95 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.91 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 51% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 19.83% with revenue decreasing by 9.75%. Short interest has decreased by 7.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.9% below its 200 day moving average of $193.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Lennar Corp. $56.47

    Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, January 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.90 per share on revenue of $6.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.95 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.84 to $1.94 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3.06% with revenue increasing by 3.73%. Short interest has increased by 4.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.7% above its 200 day moving average of $53.44. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.6% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Cal-Maine Foods $42.45

    Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, January 6, 2020. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 19.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.6% above its 200 day moving average of $41.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.7% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Simply Good Foods Company $28.17

    Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, January 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.21 per share on revenue of $166.52 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.23 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 16.67% with revenue increasing by 37.70%. Short interest has increased by 140.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.0% above its 200 day moving average of $25.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 18.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    RPM International Inc. $75.15

    RPM International Inc. (RPM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Wednesday, January 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.73 per share on revenue of $1.40 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.72 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.71 to $0.76 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 40.38% with revenue increasing by 2.75%. Short interest has decreased by 16.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.8% above its 200 day moving average of $66.05. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.7% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    AngioDynamics $16.49

    AngioDynamics (ANGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, January 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.01 per share on revenue of $71.88 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 95.45% with revenue decreasing by 21.45%. Short interest has decreased by 27.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.1% below its 200 day moving average of $18.55. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 16.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.4% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    AZZ Inc. $45.21

    AZZ Inc. (AZZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, January 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.84 per share on revenue of $276.30 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 42.37% with revenue increasing by 15.36%. Short interest has increased by 121.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.1% above its 200 day moving average of $43.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    DISCUSS!

    What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?


    I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
    [link] [comments]

    Why didn't I invest sooner?

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 06:40 AM PST

    I post from a throwaway because I'm too ashamed.

    I started earning money 7 years ago and I was always very savvy, finance orientated guy. I knew about inflation, taxes, how banks work et But because I was too afraid of a next recession, of too complex DD, of people losing furtunes on the stock market I never invested...

    Until 1st February 2019.i pulled the plug and started investing 10k here, 10k there etc. Rn I have 50% in cash and 50% in stocks. And my god... Why didn't I invest sooner?

    I invested mostly in individual stocks after doing a lot of dd and I'm up 16%. The best saving account I have is making 1.5% per annum... And the inflation where I live grew from 2.5% to 5%(10% in some sectors) in one year.

    I'm dumb and ashamed that I was losing so much money over the year and of all the not realised gains

    submitted by /u/Throw_me_away8273
    [link] [comments]

    Uber is up almost 12% since Cramer said it was a buy, and since you all called him an idiot and said you would short it.

    Posted: 03 Jan 2020 03:23 PM PST

    Just thought you would all be curious to know.

    Oh and it made major technical breakouts this week, flashing some bullish indicators that it never had prior.

    submitted by /u/professordurian
    [link] [comments]

    Some interesting news in the stock market this week

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 09:57 AM PST

    While there was little news from large cap names this week, President Trump managed to keep things interesting with his New Years eve tweet that he expected to sign a Phase 1 trade agreement with China in the next couple of weeks. That sent Chinese stocks, along with US companies that import and use Chinese products, higher on Thursday. Then on Friday, oil and defense stocks, along with gold, received a boost (for the want of a better word) from the US airstrike that killed Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani. Airline stocks fell as oil reached a seven month high.

    In Japan, Carlos Ghosn, the 5 foot 6 inch ex CEO of Renault and Nissan who was facing charges of financial misconduct charges, provided a great story that seems more appropriate for Hollywood than Wall Street. Despite being held under strict bail conditions including constant surveillance, Mr Ghosn apparently climbed into a case for musical instruments on Sunday evening before being whisked off to a local Japanese airport and flown to Turkey and then on to the Lebanon.

    Back home, Barron's ran a worrying story about Canada Goose's ($GOOS) $1,000 signature parkas and how they are stuffed with goose down and trimmed with coyote fur. That's a dangerous product to be associated with in the age of the anti-fur movement and social media. The Daily Beast has already run a story claiming that owning a Canada Goose parka may even put off potential dating partners. Canada Goose's stock price has fallen 50% from 2018 highs and its valuation at 35x earnings would normally be reasonable for a company growing at around 30% p.a. However the risk of being outed for the use of fur in the fickle fashion industry means I would avoid.

    Cassave Science Inc's ($SAVA) stock price almost doubled after CEO Remi Barbier bought 100,000 of stock on New Years eve. The purchase follows positive data from a mid stage trial for one of its experimental Alzheimer's disease drugs. There is still a way to go before approval, meaning the stock may yet have to give up all the recent gains (and more), but with a market cap of just $166 million the potential upside from an approved Alzheimer's drug would be huge. The purchase by the CEO is a big vote of confidence from those in the know and sends out a strong signal to the market.

    On Monday, Sol-Gel ($SLGL) jumped 90% after reporting positive phase 3 trial results for its acne treatment drug Twyneo. Sol-Gel now plans to file a new drug application (NDA) in the second half of 2020. It is more good news for the company which was already planning to file an NDA for its rosacea drug Epsolay and potentially going from zero to two commercial stage drugs in one year. The company's valuation has jumped to $320 million, but that looks reasonable given its two drugs that are close to approval with a combined total addressable market of $10 billion.

    Otherwise the news was largely confined to analyst upgrades and downgrades. A couple that caught my eye were Goodyear Tire and Axsome Therapeutics.

    Goodyear Tire ($GT) is a cyclical stock that will never trade at a premium but with the stock down 55% over the past two years and trading on 7x 2020 consensus earnings its valuation is looking cheap. Nomura Instinet analyst Anindya Das agrees with a target price 33% above Fridays close. Das says GT has a strong earnings outlook having largely completed its restructuring. I would agree, auto sales have slumped since 2015 but, with the average auto age at an all time high of 12 years (and in the absence of a recession), it's likely that the renewal cycle will begin in the near term. GT's forward PE looks cheap compared to peers such as Cooper Tires (10x 2020 earnings). The 4.2% dividend also looks attractive.

    Axsome's ($AXSM) was up on Monday after reporting positive results from a late-stage study to evaluate, AXS-07, its drug for the acute treatment of migraine. Good news for Axsome and 37 million Americans suffer from migraine. Axsome said it plans to file an NDA in the second half of 2020.

    It follows news earlier in December regarding Axsome's new clinical drug the blockbuster, AXS-05, which reported significant improvements in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). 47% of patients with MDD achieve complete remission, as opposed to the 16% of patients taking the placebo. Depression treatments are one of the largest healthcare markets in the U.S., with around 7.1% of adults -- or 17.3 million -- Americans affected each year. Estimated at USD 15.60 Billion in 2018. And there's not a lot of competition.

    Axsome's stock has surged by almost 4,000% since the beginning of 2019, pushing the stock from a $93 million market cap into the $3.5 billion range. But it could have further upside potential due to AXS-05 and AXS-05 and the large addressable market. Priced at $95.20 at Fridays close Cantor Fitzgerald raised their price target to $125 and HC Wainwright increased theirs from $170 to $200.

    "Follow" me if you would like to receive updates during the week.

    This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Stocks are not suitable for everyone. Some of the stocks mentioned are risky small cap and/or highly speculative. Please do your own research.

    submitted by /u/InterestingNews1
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    Dear god Amd

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 09:12 AM PST

    I'm sweating, how long can this possibly keep up? Should I be dumping this stuff?

    submitted by /u/garbageusa
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    Why does the killing of Iran commander affect the stock market? Iran has has not only been sanctioned..you can't buy Iranian stocks from the exchange.

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 09:10 AM PST

    Can't really find information about this.

    submitted by /u/throwra8523
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    Can you go in debt?

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 12:41 PM PST

    If you invest in a stock and it falls, can it go to a point where you owe money, or do you just lose everything you invested?

    submitted by /u/ESSKEETTITT
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    Is $FIT is overlooked? The stock could make you 14% in a few months

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 12:11 PM PST

    I don't normally traffic in merger arbitrage, but the spread at $FIT is so wide you can drive a truck through it.

    Brief background: Google agreed to acquire Fitbit on Nov 1 for $7.35/share. $FIT spiked to $7.20 and has bled to $6.44 since the announcement on the back of a supposed investigation by the DOJ (more on that here

    I'm no lawyer, but there are likely no antitrust issues here - $FIT is a pimple on GOOGL's balance sheet, and has only 4% share of the wearables market. The issues are around privacy concerns - how is Google going to use the data? Google already has a partnership with Fitbit with its health analytics , and Fitbit partners with Google Cloud to house its data.

    So, why wouldn't a simple opt in/opt out alleviate these privacy concerns (like GDPR) and collapse the spread, causing the stock to rise closer to $7.35?

    The background on the merger is worth a read Fitbit merger proxy . Google and Fitbit will exercise their best efforts to get the deal done, and there was a very active second bidder here (rumoured to be Facebook, which would arguably face the same scrutiny).

    Google was also Investigated for its recent acquisition of Looker , and that was approved a few months after (frankly, any mega tech/internet mergers will be investigated in detail). Perhaps this one is no different ?

    Would love to read any opposing (or agreeing) thoughts here.

    I currently don't have a position in $FIT

    submitted by /u/rocketpower98
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    Split Effects on Stock Option Premiums

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 11:04 AM PST

    I've read multiple articles that explain how a split affects the shares and strike price, but I can't find anything that explains how it affects the premium. Does it follow the same factor as the shares and strike price?

    For example, let's say I bought a $100 option contract with a $0.15/share premium. I've paid the $15 premium up front for the option. If the stock gets a 1:2 reverse split, the contract is now for 50 shares at $200 each, but how is the premium adjusted?

    If it was a call option, my break even share cost would be $100.15. Does that just double to $200.30?

    That would make sense given $.030 premium after reverse split for 50 stocks would be $15. But I just want confirmation.

    submitted by /u/matthew-jumper
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    APHA 2020

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 01:49 PM PST

    Looking around i see sources postning different stuff, is it a good buy for 2020.

    submitted by /u/macan05
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    Tracking trades on Excel

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 01:17 PM PST

    Hi everyone! Does anyone have an excel template they use to track all of their stock trades? Looking for something pretty basic that can help with calculating profits and losses of individual stocks.

    Thanks in advance for your help!

    submitted by /u/exzachly12
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    How to play BBBY earnings?

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 01:16 PM PST

    BBBY earnings caught my eye while I was reading the Week Ahead post and it mentions high put volume for the $17 strike expiring friday. But consensus looks to favor a slight earnings beat...wouldn't calls be the way to play this? Can someone explain?

    How are you playing this?

    submitted by /u/Pineapple1500
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    Best stock buying app?

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 01:06 PM PST

    Stock market buyers of Reddit, I will be turning 18 next month and want to start buying stocks for the long term. I'm currently using a trading 212 practice account as I'm not old enough to use real money yet and was wondering if this is one of the better apps to use, or is there a much better alternative? Any advice is useful thanks :)

    submitted by /u/epicdonkey616
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    How do I increase my leverage/margin?

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 10:36 AM PST

    So I can currently invest up to twice my account value with my ETRADE account. How can I increase my leverage from 2x to like 4x or higher?

    submitted by /u/mihirtak
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    AR to watch for 2020?

    Posted: 03 Jan 2020 10:55 PM PST

    Anyone recommend any AR (Augment Reality) company and/or stock to watch for 2020.

    submitted by /u/mosmani
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    Any investing Instagram pages you like?

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 10:03 AM PST

    I do not follow any stock market investing related pages on Instagram. Any reliable and credible recommendations?

    submitted by /u/likesundayslikerain
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    Why are investors so bullish on $AMD?

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 09:09 AM PST

    P/E of 237, and their biggest competitors are Intel and Nvidia, both of which have more cash to spend on marketing and R&D, as well as a much stronger market presence.

    submitted by /u/Fargraven
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    What was your path in learning about the stock market?

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 08:48 AM PST

    Filler:

    What was your path in learning about the stock market?

    What was your path in learning about the stock market?

    submitted by /u/CIARRAPUNGI
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    Amazon Is a Free-Cash Rocket Ship. Time to Get on Board.

    Posted: 03 Jan 2020 06:23 PM PST

    It might be a crowded trade, but the stock is still cheap, relative to the online retailer's free cash flow.

    "Buy Amazon" isn't the world's biggest stock-picking cliché, but it's close. There are 49 analysts who cover the shares, and 47 of them are positive, with two neutral, according to FactSet. Only Alibaba Group Holding of China and ICICI Bank of India boast more endorsements.

    And after a record-setting run-up, Amazon's stock isn't obviously inviting. A $1,000 stake at the close of the stock's first day of trading in 1997 has turned into more than $950,000. The shares today, at $1,875, go for 69 times projected 2020 earnings.

    Still, buy Amazon.com (ticker: AMZN). The stock price looks sensible when compared with free cash flow, which is swelling quickly. Some growth initiatives are only now paying off. Don't expect a 35% gain this year, as Amazon has averaged, compounded, since going public. But don't rule it out, either.

    Amazon's reputation for operating near break-even has long been outdated. Founder Jeff Bezos has emphasized free cash flow over accounting earnings from the start, and Amazon has generated free cash since 2002. The company has tended to invest much of that cash for growth, and the result is that earnings have been positive only since 2014, and only meaningfully so since 2018. Now the numbers are reaching escape velocity.

    When 2019's results are released, Wall Street expects Amazon to report that revenue increased by 20%, to $279.1 billion; that earnings rose slightly, to $10.4 billion; and that free cash flow ballooned by 28%, to $24.9 billion. In 2020, free cash flow is expected to expand even faster, by 36%, to $34 billion.

    Within five years, the consensus view is that Amazon will become the biggest free cash generator in America, passing some companies that aren't exactly standing still, like Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT). The simplest reason is that Amazon's investment spending can't keep up with its growth rate forever.

    Amazon launched Prime in 2005, with its free two-day shipping for members, and vast opportunities for the company to put capital to work building speedier infrastructure. Not long after, Amazon Web Services went into cloud computing, another path for investment. Both ventures have proved to be lucrative, with Prime spurring increased spending by shoppers, and AWS yielding generous profit margins.

    Last year, Amazon said that it would spend to shorten free Prime shipping to a single day. There are early signs of that paying off, too. Cowen analyst John Blackledge estimates that Prime membership grew 13% during the fourth quarter, versus a year earlier. That compares with 3% growth a year ago and would be the third straight quarter of acceleration.

    Now, consider another of Amazon's growth initiatives: advertising. A recent search for "men's tennis rackets" on Amazon.com yielded editorial recommendations and a racket listing labeled "Amazon's Choice." But nothing was more prominently displayed than the three sponsored racket listings near the top—except for the paid ad for portable nets just above them.

    Advertising doesn't require vast investments in fleets and data farms, and it looks like another boon for Amazon's growth. Ad revenue will rise 36%, to $17.6 billion, in 2020, and by 2025 will top $46 billion, predicts Cowen's Blackledge. Assuming a 35% operating margin for the business, he estimates that advertising and AWS will together account for 90% of operating income this year.

    That has important implications for shareholders. First, it bodes well for the competitiveness of a store when it doesn't have to rely on its retail margins for the bulk of profits. Second, the advertising ramp provides another rich source of funds to invest in growth. Third, with Amazon passing the anniversary of its spending boost for Prime one-day, it is unclear that it will need that extra spending. As things stand, growth in capital expenditures is expected to decelerate from over 25% last year, to 16% this year, to under 10% in 2021.

    Among 10 analysts who have estimated Amazon's free cash flow out to 2021, the lowest says $32.7 billion, the highest says $57.5 billion, and the average is $43.7 billion. Out to 2024, there are only three estimates, averaging $82.8 billion. Apple, in comparison, is expected to produce close to $63 billion in free cash during its current fiscal year through September.

    If distant estimates for Amazon are feasible, or even if they are only moderately overblown, the stock could continue outperforming. At less than 30 times estimated 2020 free cash flow, it is cheaper than the shares of Visa (V), Nike (NKE), or McDonald's (MCD). From here, 20% annual gains for the next three years could leave the stock priced at a humbler 25 times free cash flow.

    A government crackdown against powerful tech titans is a risk, but Amazon may have a better "who me?" defense than some of the others. Its market share in the public cloud is less than half, and falling, as Microsoft and others catch up. In e-commerce, more than half of its sales are from third-party merchants who pay to use its services. And in online advertising, it's a pipsqueak next to Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB).

    All told, Amazon is popular with stockpickers for good reason. It's not too late to join the crowd.

    Source: Barron's

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    Tensions with Iran after that airstrike

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 07:13 AM PST

    What are your thoughts on the situation and how it's going to affect the stock market ? What type of stocks guys will you look into buying or selling during this period ?

    submitted by /u/xko92x
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    Would someone explain the Greeks?

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 06:51 AM PST

    I don't mind how confusing your explanation is.

    submitted by /u/Anonank
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    App incorrect?

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 09:01 AM PST

    Is this app giving incorrect information? It's FreeTrade.

    It shows BP Oil as trading at £4.94, yet a google search shows all other financial sites cite BP Oil at trading 10X more than that, around £494. What is going on?

    submitted by /u/DaddysTongueRing
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    Is eToro any good?

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 05:00 AM PST

    Dear fellow traders,

    I am looking to invest about 5k to 10k into healthcare related stocks, that for some reasons I am pretty sure they will go up. I plan for some while to invest for the long term (buy for 1-3 years without leverage). However, this would be my first investment in stock market and I am looking for a good trading platform.

    I am from central europe and my options are limited, eToro would be one option.

    What is your experience with eToro?

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/polclb
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    Can you guys believe some dude took out a loan to buy Calls?

    Posted: 04 Jan 2020 04:42 AM PST

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