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    Friday, January 3, 2020

    Stock Market - Musk defies skeptics, meets Tesla delivery goal; shares hit record

    Stock Market - Musk defies skeptics, meets Tesla delivery goal; shares hit record


    Musk defies skeptics, meets Tesla delivery goal; shares hit record

    Posted: 03 Jan 2020 05:02 PM PST

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/musk-defies-skeptics-meets-tesla-delivery-goal-shares-hit-record-idUSKBN1Z21B5

    (Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) beat Wall Street estimates for annual vehicle deliveries and met the low-end of its own target, sending shares to a record high in a vindication for Chief Executive Elon Musk after a few turbulent years.

    Boosted by demand for its mass-produced Model 3 sedans as overseas sales pick up, Tesla on Friday said it delivered 112,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, including 92,550 Model 3s and 19,450 Model S/X SUVs, which was above expectations of 104,960 vehicles, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    Given the Iran situation would it be good to invest in gas and oil, such as Exxon?

    Posted: 03 Jan 2020 11:19 AM PST

    Is it a good idea to invest in oil stock? In Exxon or other oil companies ?

    What are you buying?

    Oil? Defense? 3x etfs? Volatility play

    submitted by /u/ExistingProcess
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    What are your thoughts on the Shiller-PE accuracy?

    Posted: 03 Jan 2020 06:27 AM PST

    We know Shiller-PE is regarded as one of the more important metrics for overall market valuation.

    One of the criticisms I've heard over the past couple years is that since it takes into account data from the last 10 years the ratio would be artificially inflated from the 2008-2009 high numbers. Fair point.

    But now it's 2020, and 10 years ago the ratio was at it's lowest it had been since about 1980.

    Using the same logical criticism, wouldn't that make this number artificially deflated at this given point?

    Currently the ratio sits around 31, double the historical median.

    Thoughts?

    Shiller-PE

    EDIT: Alright I'm back from work and took my afterwork nap. Perhaps foolishly, I implied that based on the current CAPE that markets are sure fire overvalued. This was not really my intention. To clear things up, I was specifically looking for a discussion about the merits and demerits about this particular metric. Maybe "one of the more widely used or famous metrics of market valuation" is a more sensible thing to say.

    submitted by /u/Mute1543
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    This Is The Chart You Need To Show Your Children And Grandchildren

    Posted: 03 Jan 2020 11:16 AM PST

    Yogi Berra was quoted as saying that "it's tough making predictions, especially about the future."

    However, there are times when one is able to at least obtain a probabilistic reading about the future, based upon an understanding of mass human sentiment and human psychology.

    In fact, back in the 1940's, an accountant named Ralph Nelson Elliott identified behavioral patterns within the stock market which represented the larger collective behavioral patterns of society en masse. And, in 1940, Elliott publicly tied the movements of human behavior to the natural law represented through Fibonacci mathematics.

    Elliott understood that financial markets provide us with a representation of the overall mood or psychology of the masses. And, he also understood that markets are fractal in nature. That means they are variably self-similar at different degrees of trend.

    Most specifically, Elliott theorized that public sentiment and mass psychology move in 5 waves within a primary trend, and 3 waves within a counter-trend. Once a 5 wave move in public sentiment has completed, then it is time for the subconscious sentiment of the public to shift in the opposite direction, which is simply the natural cycle within the human psyche, and not the operative effect of some form of "news."

    This mass form of progression and regression seems to be hard wired deep within the psyche of all living creatures, and that is what we have come to know today as the "herding principle," which gives this theory its ultimate power.

    And, over the last 30 years, many social experiments have been conducted throughout the world which have provided scientific support to Elliott's theories presented almost a century ago.

    But, even before these more recent studies have begun to support Elliott's understanding of the market set forth 80 years ago, Elliott provided us with an extraordinarily bold stock market prediction. Allow me to present you with the following prediction made by Ralph Nelson Elliott in August of 1941:

    [1941] should mark the final correction of the 13 year pattern of defeatism. This termination will also mark the beginning of a new Supercylce wave (V), comparable in many respects with the long [advance] from 1857 to 1929. Supercycle (V) is not expected to culminate until about 2012.

    For those of you that do not understand this quote, Elliott was predicting the start of a 70-year bull market in the face of World War II raging around him. Quite an amazing prediction, no?

    Now, the rally that Elliott was predicting seems to have gone well beyond his expectations from a timing standpoint. In fact, if we follow through with Elliott's original assessments, and we take into account the actual structure we have seen over the last 70 years, I believe the rally he was forecasting will last considerably longer than his expectations, especially when we now can fill in the wave structure of the rally he expected. You can see what I am speaking of on the attached chart compiled by Garrett Patten of Elliottwavetrader.

    📷 https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/images/charts/202001/full-218eaee8c1261adf0336cb12c5c5c7ae2a163675.png

    Specifically, what it tells us is that the market could very well be in the final stage of a multi-year rally, which in my work has an ideal target in the 4000 region. But, as you can see from this much longer-term perspective chart, it even has potential to rise as high as the 6000 region in a blow off top. (I will have a much better idea of that topping target within the next year or so).

    Yet, the main take away for those investing over the coming decade is that we are likely approaching a point in time where the market can enter into a multi-decade "correction" in wave [IV], as outlined on the chart above. While that would likely be the next generational buying opportunity, it seems to suggest that the last half of the upcoming decade will result in a lot of pain for investors.

    At a minimum, I would expect the next bear market would have us revisit the 1800SPX region in the second half of the new decade. So, enjoy the profits of this "last hurrah" over the coming several years, as we are likely setting up for a once in a century event, which can rival the Great Depression, as it is of the same long-term wave degree. Remember, while history does not exactly repeat, it certainly does rhyme. And, those that are unwilling to learn from history are certainly bound to repeat it.

    submitted by /u/avigilburt
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    Question on transferring to a new brokerage.

    Posted: 03 Jan 2020 07:30 AM PST

    I have around $2300 invested in a Robinhood account and I want to move it to Fidelity and use their 2% back credit card now that they have free trades. A couple of questions.

    1. I have a couple of shares of Vanguards VOO (S&P 500) and I'm kinda ignorant to fees. Do I need to get rid of it after I move and buy Fidelity's S&P 500 fund so that I don't pay fees?

    2. Is transferring really the best option? Should I just sell everything and move the money over instead?

    submitted by /u/PassmetheToastplez
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    Recession Proofing your 401k

    Posted: 03 Jan 2020 02:08 AM PST

    Tesla a buy with the possible escalation of conflict with Iran?

    Posted: 03 Jan 2020 01:05 PM PST

    With Tesla being the main EV producer, do you think the possibility of major conflict with Iran, and accordingly the rise of oil prices, will have any effect on Tesla stock?

    submitted by /u/marveliteIG
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    td ameritrade lack of customer support, rant

    Posted: 03 Jan 2020 11:54 AM PST

    I have multiple accounts at td ameritrade. Most of the time things just work the way I would expect - satisfactorily.

    I've definitely noticed better order execution/routing at other brokers, but it's also not the worst I've seen.

    There have only been a few occasions when I've had to reach out to their customer support. The most recent one has really been a pain because it's an issue that's preventing me from placing trades.

    Previous support requests I placed received totally inept responses. The solutions always came from google, here, etc. not from customer service. It was like they didn't even read my question.

    The most recent support request has received misleading, uninformed, unprofessional advice. On a really good day I may get like 70% of the questions on a series 7 exam right - I'm by no means a broker/advisor, etc. But talking to these people about an account is like playing chess with a child. They don't know basic things I would think would be essential to the job. I do want to clarify: When I have had trade related questions, the brokers are extremely informative and professional. But unfortunately when the questions are more account related, the support id piss poor. I don't really mind the idea of having a first line of customer service agents who just answer calls and can help with simple questions, but it's annoying as hell when they are unwilling to admit there are things they don't know and transfer your call to someone who does. Instead if there is something they are unfamiliar with they will pretend it doesn't exist / isn't something TD ameritrade does, etc. ie. they are more interested in ending the call than finding a solution.

    I don't really know the structure of a brokerage this large, should I(would it be possible to) just talk to brokers[or anyone better than a standard customer service agent] for account maintenance related issues?

    submitted by /u/nerraw888
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    Is there a Yahoo Finance equivalent for Chinese stocks?

    Posted: 02 Jan 2020 10:45 PM PST

    Hi. I am looking for Chinese stocks information but I don't think I have found good websites that provide me with

    financials (like financial statement numbers as in Yahoo Finance).

    Is there a good website for Chinese stocks that provide free financials?

    Thank you!

    submitted by /u/nimbusmettle
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    What's the next AMD?

    Posted: 03 Jan 2020 06:14 AM PST

    Curious what you guys think the next AMD will be. Really wish I had bought some when it was under $5. Same with Snapchat.

    submitted by /u/dronetactics
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    Assignment on Robinhood

    Posted: 03 Jan 2020 12:50 AM PST

    When you have a credit spread and you are waiting for the value of it to fall to zero by the expiration date, when is it that you can be assigned these stocks for the strike price. I hear people talking about being assigned on Robinhood and I thought that could only happen if you short a naked option, not if you are doing credit spreads since you have an insurance and you can only lose the difference between the credit that you received minus the collateral. Can anyone confirm or explain this idea of being "assigned" it would be greatly appreciated.

    submitted by /u/abdelflores1
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    Actual value of a stock?

    Posted: 02 Jan 2020 10:49 PM PST

    I'm starting to learn about the stock market and have a basic question: what is the actual value of a stock?

    I know the price you see is what the market thinks the stock is worth, but what's the "intrinsic" value of a stock?

    It's not a debt for the company. There's no guarantee you'll make the money you put in. It seems the companies have all the power here. They get money for investment and expenses and don't even have to pay it back!

    And the dividends on these are so low so not sure what the point is.

    submitted by /u/itsthekumar
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    I just bought $1500 of VEU, what upcoming events could affect its share price? Was it even a good buy? Thanks.

    Posted: 02 Jan 2020 09:44 PM PST

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