• Breaking News

    Saturday, December 7, 2019

    Stocks - Some interesting news in the stock market this week

    Stocks - Some interesting news in the stock market this week


    Some interesting news in the stock market this week

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 03:52 AM PST

    Alphabet ($GOOG) announced on Tuesday that Sundar Pichai will take over as CEO as Larry Page and Sergey Brin both stepped down from their roles as CEO and President. It was a popular choice with Mr Pichai being seen as a safe pair of hands with a collaborative style.

    Expedia ($EXPE) announced a C-Suite transition that was altogether less smooth with the resignation of both the CEO and CFO after a disagreement on strategy and disappointing Q3 results. The company's now ex-CEO Okerstrom had begun a push for Expedia to integrate its brands and technology earlier in the year. It appears he has been ditched due to a subsequent lack of focus on Expedia's core business that resulted from this push.

    However pressure from Google suggests Okerstrom' strategy may have been the right one. Competitors Airbnb, TripAdvisor and Booking have all been implementing a similar strategy of integrating their brands and technology. Expedia's very real problems remain, namely it needs to wean itself off of Google SEO as a source of traffic or face getting further squeezed as Google continues to convert more traffic from free to paid.

    There were also a couple of interesting articles in Barron's saying Amazon ($AMZN) "cannot be beaten" and that Nike ($NKE) "is in the early innings of transition from a traditional wholesale business"

    In summary, Citi analyst Jason Bazinet said other traditional retailers and e-commerce firms are unable to replicate Amazon's scale and capabilities. That means that Amazon can continue to grow by selling goods at a loss while offsetting losses with the profitable selling of services to enterprises. If he is right then Amazon looks cheap with annual forecast growth of 72% compared to a TTM PE 78.

    However it seems there is one very specific exception to Mr Bazinet's assertion with Nike's decision to no longer sell merchandise through Amazon showing that strong brands are realizing that traffic driven to their own site is self-sustaining, more profitable, and actually brand enhancing. Morgan Stanley's Kimberly Greenberger's has a TP 22% above current level and says, "We continue to believe NKE is in the early innings of transition from a traditional wholesale business to a digitally-driven, direct-to-consumer brand,"

    Elsewhere Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ) said on Tuesday that more tests showed that Johnson's Baby Powder was free of asbestos and Peloton ($PTON) had a bad week with their Christmas advert branded "dystopian" and "sexist". I am going to take this opportunity to say nothing.

    Value stocks (Signet and At Home Group)

    Signet Jewelers Limited ($SIG) reported Q3 results with same store sales up 2.1%. CEO Virginia Drosos says the company's "transformation journey" is starting to pay off with recent initiatives beginning to take hold. "Starting with customer first, much better product marketing, and a transformed media plan for this holiday season, better omni channel, iPads in the hands of every jewelry consultant, and better websites," Drosos said "And we're driving out costs in the business that we've been able to reinvest to drive growth."

    The company guided to full year non-GAAP diluted EPS of between $3.11 - $3.29 which looks attractive compared to the stock price of $20.58.

    Encouragingly Drosos said "In the jewelry category, the consumer market is healthy," and continued, "We've seen over the last number of years low single digit growth in the category, and we expect that to continue."

    At Home Group Inc ($HOME) beat top and bottom line third-quarter estimates but disappointed analysts with a guidance cut. After a difficult Thanksgiving, At Home sees fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 31-36 cents per share, significantly below the 49 cent per share consensus estimate. That reflects 25% off discounting on seasonal items at an earlier time than At Home has ever implemented.

    However the stock looks cheap following its 33% drop with a valuation of less than 10x current year estimates.

    KeyBanc Capital Markets Bradley Thomas maintained an Overweight rating but cut its price target from $14 to $10 (Friday's closing price was $5.67) and said "Ultimately, recent trends are undeniably frustrating, but we believe the Company is taking its medicine on markdowns and has mostly de-risked 4Q," Thomas wrote, "New store performance remains strong and HOME continues to take share from competitors."

    Wells Fargo maintained a Market Weight rating and $7 target with Zachary Fadem saying encouragingly, "Looking ahead to next year, we believe the roll outs of EDLP+ [Everyday Low Prices] and BOPIS [Buy Online Pickup Instore] can drive incremental sales and improve HOME's value perception with consumers".

    Growth stocks (Duluth Holdings Inc, The Trade Desk and Ulta Beauty)

    Duluth Holdings Inc ($DLTH) is up 20% after reporting strong Q3 results on Thursday that beat expectations with healthy top-line growth of 12% and improved third-quarter operating margin and earnings growth on a year-over-year basis. Revenue of $119.90 million thrashed analysts' estimates of $114.97 million and full year EPS guidance of 60 cents to 66 cents compared to consensus forecasts for 60 cents.

    That's good news for the rapidly growing lifestyle brand with well-established direct business. The company opened 3 new stores during the quarter, taking the total to 58, but has identified markets with 100 potential store locations meaning there is still plenty of potential for growth.

    At $247.35 (market cap of $11.2bn) The Trade Desk's ($TTD) stock price has recovered some of Monday's correction but is still significantly down from recent highs of $290. On Friday, Needham analyst Laura Martin upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy with a new $325 price target.

    That's in line with the CEO who maintains the view that most of the $700 billion plus pie of advertising will end up programmatic - that's a huge opportunity for the $11 billion market leader.

    Global markets in particular have huge potential but account for just 14% of The Trade Desk's current business. That figure should grow to two-thirds, reflecting the global break down. The Trade Desk is the only mainstream DSP with a strong play in China and that could drive huge returns.

    Ulta Beauty's ($ULTA) stock jumped 11% on Friday after reporting a strong Q3. Comps rose 3.2%, driving overall revenue growth of 7.9% and gross margin improved 40 basis points to 37.1%. Full-year guidance was raised to EPS of $11.93 to $12.03, up from a previous range of $11.86 to $12.06 and up from $10.94 last year.

    That will suit CEO Mary Dillon who bought $308,000 of stock in September. The prestige cosmetics industry has seen growth slow from its frenetic pace of recent years but (on a PE of 22x current year estimates) Ulta doesn't look expensive.

    Speculative and high risk (electroCore)

    This week, the UK's Depart of Health agency NICE (National Institute for Health and Care Excellence) published its guidance recommending the use of electroCore's ($ECORE) gammaCore treatment for the acute and preventive treatment of cluster headache in adults.

    Even though treatment costs about £3,000 ($4,000) per year, the NICE guidance states that gammaCore, when added to standard of care, can save an average of £450 ($590) per patient in the first year of treatment. Additionally, among the comments received by NICE in their review of gammaCore are endorsements from UK neurologists expressing strong support for patient access to gammaCore in the NHS, such as "This device has changed the way we practice - it has huge implications beyond the results of headache diaries," and "[I have] had a lot of experience with seeing clinical responses and the meaningful and significant impact this treatment can commonly have on people's lives."

    That's pretty encouraging.

    Iain Strickland, Managing Director of electroCore UK, said "approximately 66,000 people in the UK suffer from this devastating headache disorder, and experts have reported that 25-50% of the most severely affected will benefit from our therapy,"

    Back of the envelope that suggests (66,000 x 37.5% x 4,000) $92.4 million of revenues from the UK alone which would go along way to offsetting electroCore's $50 million annual cash burn and set up the company for profitability.

    Additionally, in the US back in April 2017, the FDA cleared electroCore's gammaCore therapy for the acute treatment of cluster headache, or CH. CH is an extremely painful form of headache affecting approximately 350,000 people in the United States with an estimated total addressable U.S. market of approximately $400 million. Additionally, according to a 2016 market research survey, 87% of respondents reported dissatisfaction with the then-available treatment options for managing CH.

    Further, in January 2018, the FDA cleared electroCore gammaCore therapy for electroCore's lead indication: the acute treatment of migraine in adults. Reports suggest an even greater total addressable market of approximately $4 billion and some reports suggest that up to 60% of migraine sufferers are dissatisfied with, or have contraindications to, the current standard of care treatments.

    Unfortunately the UK news probably comes too late to save existing shareholders from significant dilution. With an annual cash burn of c.$50 million and cash of just $33.5 million as of September 30th. We could easily be looking at 30 million new shares at $1, diluting exiting shareholders 1:1 (or worse).

    It is probably wise to wait to see the terms of that issuance before entering into a position. However, the guidance and comments from the UK are extremely positive. If electroCore can execute in the UK and bring some of that success back to the US then, even with dilution, it could yet be a multibagger.

    Insider buying (Evolent Health and Kodak)

    Insider buying at Evolent Health ($EVH) Inc this week with the CEO purchasing $228,000 of stock on Tuesday followed by a $100,000 purchase by the President on Thursday. It comes after a 75% drop in the stock in just over a year. Last week the stock dropped almost 40% after reporting that it's largest customer, Passport Health, had lost the contract to manage the $8B per year Kentucky Medicaid business which it had maintained for 20 years.

    It's a terrible blow that could put Passport out of business and bad news for Evolent who derive 12% of their revenues from Passport and had recently agreed to purchase a 70% ownership for $70 million (expected to close by the end of this year). However I think the 40% drop looks overdone and insider buying sends a signal that management think so too.

    CEO Frank Williams noted that there was a possibility that Passport would not be awarded the Kentucky contract in the Q3 conference call last month and said, "If Passport's contract is not renewed beyond June, 2020 than we anticipate services growth in 2020 of at least 10%." That is a lot lower than the 20% expected if it had won the contract but still suggests a very healthy level of growth. Additionally Passport Health Plan has confirmed that they intend to appeal Kentucky's decision meaning they could well win some of the business.

    However, even when assuming the worst case scenario of 10% growth, the valuation of Evolent (trading at just 0.77x sales) looks cheap.

    Insider buying at Kodak ($KODK) after two directors made purchases of $5.5 million and $11.1 million this week. They follow Executive Chairman James Continenza who increased his holding last week by 50% with a $103,000 purchase.

    The once iconic film manufacturer has struggled since it emerged from bankruptcy proceedings in 2015. It does have a number of growth engines that account for about 25% of revenues, including its SONORA Process Free Plates which grew by 22% in Q3 and the PROSPER Inkjet Platform which grew by 5 percent, but these as yet have not been enough to offset the decline and overall revenues fell by 4.3%.

    The company is not expensive with a market cap of $111 million compared to net cash of $75 million. It reported Operational EBITDA of $14 million in Q3 ($9 million Q3 2018). However, with the core business still facing strong headwinds, it is difficult for an outsider to see any value in the business.

    "FOLLOW" me if you would like to see my regular updates during the week.

    This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Stocks are risky and not suitable for everybody. Some of the stocks mentioned are HIGH RISK AND SPECULATIVE. Please do your own research.

    submitted by /u/InterestingNews1
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    Amd? Good buy or overvalued

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 11:55 AM PST

    I'm looking at both amd and nvidia as potential buys, but I'm worried that amd is over valued and will eventually fix itself

    submitted by /u/DeepWebConspiracies
    [link] [comments]

    Nvidia at $212

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 11:05 AM PST

    Would you guys recommend buying nvidia at its current price? I'm more worried about losing money once the crypto currency mining bubble burst and people start selling their gpu to make some extra profit flooding the market

    submitted by /u/DeepWebConspiracies
    [link] [comments]

    Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning December 9th, 2019

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 07:28 AM PST

    Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.

    Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning December 9th, 2019.

    What Trump does before trade deadline is the 'wild card' that will drive markets in the week ahead - (Source)


    The Trump administration's Dec. 15 deadline for new tariffs on China looms large, and while most strategists expect them to be delayed while talks continue, they don't rule out the unexpected.


    "That's the biggest thing in the room next week. I don't think he's going to raise them. I think they'll find a reason," said James Pauslen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group. But Paulsen said President Donald Trump's unpredictable nature makes it really impossible to tell what will happen as the deadline nears.


    "He's the one off you're never sure about. It's not just tariffs. It could be damn near anything," Paulsen said. "I think he goes out of his way to be a wild card."


    Just in the past week, Trump said he would put new tariffs on Brazil, Argentina and France. He rattled markets when he said he could wait until after the election for a trade deal with China.


    Once dubbing himself "tariff man," Trump reminded markets that he sees tariffs as a way of getting what he wants from an opponent, and traders were reminded tariffs may be around for a long time.


    Trade certainly could be the most important event for markets in the week ahead, which also includes a Fed interest rate decision Wednesday and the U.K.'s election that could set the course for Brexit. If there's no China deal, that could beat up stocks, send Treasury yields lower and send investors into other safe havens.


    When Fed officials meet this week, they are not expected to change interest rates, but they are likely to discuss whether they believe their repo operations to drive liquidity in the short-term funding market are running smoothly, ahead of year end. Economic reports in the coming week include CPI inflation Wednesday, which could be an important input for the Fed.


    Punt, but no deal As of Friday, the White House did not appear any closer to striking a deal with China, though officials say talks are going fine. Back in August, Trump said if there is no deal, Dec. 15 is the date for a new wave of tariffs on $156 billion in Chinese goods, including cell phones, toys and lap top computers.


    Dan Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas, said it seems like a low probability there will be a deal in the coming week. "What the market is focused on right now is whether there's going to be tariffs that to into effect on Dec. 15, or not. It's being rated pretty binary," said Clifton. "I think what's happening here and the actions by China overnight looks like we're setting up for a kick."


    China removed some tariffs from U.S. agricultural products Friday, and administration officials have been talking about discussions going fine.


    Clifton said if tariffs are put on hold, it's unclear for how long. "Those are going to be larger questions that have to be answered. This is really now about politics. Is it a better idea for the president to cut a deal without major structural reforms, or should he walk away? That's the larger debate that has to happen after Dec. 15," Clifton said. "I'm getting worried that some in the administration... they're leaning toward no deal category."


    Clifton said Trump's approval rating falls when the trade wars heat up, so that may motivate him to complete the deal with China even if he doesn't get everything he wants.


    Michael Schumacher, director of rates strategy at Wells Fargo, said his base case is for a trade deal to be signed in the next couple of months, but even so, he said he can't entirely rule out another outcome. It would make sense for tariffs to be put on hold while talks continue.


    "The tweeter-in-chief controls that one, " said Schumacher. "That's anybody's guess...I wouldn't be at all surprised if he suspends it for a few weeks. If he doesn't, that's a pretty unpleasant result. That's risk off. That's pretty clear."


    Because the next group of tariffs would be on consumer goods, economists fear they could hit the economy through the consumer, the strongest and largest engine behind economic growth.


    Fed ahead The Fed has moved to the sidelines and says it is monitoring economic data before deciding its next move. Friday's strong November jobs report, with 266,000 jobs added, reinforces the Fed's decision to move to neutral for now.


    So the most important headlines from its meeting this week could be about the repo market, basically the plumbing for the financial system where financial institutions fund themselves. Interest rates in that somewhat obscure market spiked in September. Market pros said the issue was a cash crunch in the short term lending market, made better when the Fed started repo operations.


    The Fed now has multiple operations running over year end, and Schumacher said it has latitude to do more. Strategists expect there to be more pressure on the repo market as banks rein in operations to spruce up their balance sheets at year end.


    "No one is going to come to the Fed and say you did too much in the year-end funding," said Schumacher. "If repo happens to spike somewhat on one day, the Fed is going to hammer it the next day."


    Paulsen said the markets will be attuned to this week's inflation numbers. Consumer inflation, the CPI is reported on Wednesday and producer prices are Thursday.


    A pickup in inflation of any significance is one thing that could pull the Fed from the sidelines, and prod it to consider a rate hike.


    "I think the inflation reports might start to get a little attention. Given the jobs numbers, the employment rate, growth picking up a little bit and a better tone in manufacturing. I do think if you get some hot CPI number, I don't know if the Fed can ignore it," he said. "Core CPI is 2.3%." He said it would get noticed if it jumped to 2.5% or better.


    The Fed's inflation target is 2% but its preferred measure is the PCE inflation, and that remains under 2%.


    Stocks were sharply higher Friday but ended the past week flattish. The S&P 500 was slightly higher, up 0.2% at 3,145, and the Dow was down 0.1% at 28,015. The Nasdaq was 0.1% lower, ending the week at 8,656.


    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Indices for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

    Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

    Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

    Reasons We Still Believe In December

    It has been a rough start to the most wonderful month of them all, with the S&P 500 Index down each of the first two days of December. Don't stop believing just yet, though.

    Everyone knows December has usually been a good month for stocks, but what happened last year is still fresh in the minds of many investors. The S&P 500 fell 9.1% in December 2018 for the worst December since 1931. That sounds really bad, until you realize stocks fell 30% in September 1931, but we digress.

    One major difference between now and last year is how well the global equities have been performing. Heading into December 2018, the S&P 500 was up 3.2% year to date, but markets outside of the United States were already firmly in the red, with many down double digits.

    "We don't think stocks are on the verge of another massive December sell off," said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "If my Cincinnati Bengals can win a game, anything is possible. However, we are quite encouraged by the overall participation we are seeing from various global stock markets this year versus last year, when the United States was about the only market in the green heading into December."

    Stocks have also overcome volatile starts to December recently. The S&P 500 was down four days in a row to start 2013 and 2017, but the gauge still managed to gain 2.4% and 1%, respectively, in those years.

    As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, December has been the second-best month of the year for stocks going back to 1950. It is worth noting that it was the best month of the year before last year's massive drop. Stocks have historically been strong in pre-election years as well, and December has never been lower two times in a row during a pre-election year. Given stocks fell in December 2015, bulls could be smiling when this month is wrapped up.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Could Impeachment Be Good for Investors?

    Impeaching a President with the possibility of removal from office is by no means great for the country. However, it may not be so horrible for the stock market or investors if history is any guide. We first touched on this over two years ago here on the blog and now that much has transpired and the US House of Representatives is now proceeding with drafting articles of impeachment we figured it was a good time to revisit the history (albeit limited) of market behavior during presidential impeachment proceedings. The three charts below really tell the story.

    During the Watergate scandal of Nixon's second term the market suffered a major bear market from January 1973 to October/December 1974 with the Dow down 45.1%, S&P 500 down 48.2% and NASDAQ down 59.9%. Sure there were other factors that contributed to the bear market such as the Oil Embargo, Arab-Israeli War, collapse of the Bretton Woods system, high inflation and Watergate. However, shortly after Nixon resigned on August 9, 1974 the market reached the secular bear market low on October 3 for S&P and NASDAQ and December 6 for the Dow.

    Leading up to the Clinton investigations and through his subsequent impeachment and the acquittal by the Senate the market was on a tear as one of the biggest bull markets in history raged on. After the 1994 midterm elections when the Republicans took back control of both houses of Congress the market remained on a 45 degree upward trajectory except for a few blips and the shortest bear market on record that lasted 45 days and bottomed on August 31, 1998.

    Clinton was impeached in December 1998 and acquitted in February 1999 as the market continued higher throughout his second term. Sure there were other factors that contributed to the late-1990s bull-run such as the Dotcom Boom, the Information Revolution, millennial fervor and a booming global economy, but Clinton's personal scandal had little negative impact on markets.

    It remains to be seen of course what will happen with President Trump's impeachment proceeding and how the world and markets react, but the market continues to march on. If the limited history of impeachment proceedings of a US President in modern times (no offense to our 17th President Andrew Johnson) is any guide, the market has bounced back after the last two impeachment proceedings and was higher a year later. Perhaps it will be better to buy any impeachment dip rather than sell it.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!!)

    Typical December Trading: Modest Strength Early, Choppy Middle and Solid Gains Late

    Historically, the first trading day of December, today, has a slightly bearish bias with S&P 500 advancing 34 times over the last 69 years (since 1950) with an average loss of 0.02%. Tomorrow, the second trading day of December however, has been stronger, up 52.2% of the time since 1950 with an average gain of 0.08% and the third day is better still, up 59.4% of the time.

    Over the more recent 21-year period, December has opened with strength and gains over its first seven trading days before beginning to drift. By mid-month all five indices have surrendered any early-month gains, but shortly thereafter Santa usually visits sending the market higher until the last day of the month and the year when last minute selling, most likely for tax reasons, briefly interrupts the market's rally.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Odds Still Favor A Gain for Rest of December Despite Rough Start

    Just when it was beginning to look like trade was heading in a positive direction, the wind changed direction again. Yesterday it was steel and aluminum tariffs on Brazil and Argentina and today a deal with China may not happen as soon as previously anticipated. The result was the worst first two trading days of December since last year and the sixth worst start since 1950 for S&P 500. DJIA and NASDAQ are eighth worst since 1950 and 1971, respectively.

    However, historically past weakness in early December (losses over the first two trading days combined) were still followed by average gains for the remainder of the month the majority of the time. DJIA has advanced 74.19% of the time following losses over the first two trading days with an average gain for the remainder of December of 1.39%. S&P 500 was up 67.65% of the time with an average rest of month gain of 0.84%. NASDAQ is modestly softer advancing 61.11% of the time during the remainder of December with an average advance of 0.30%.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending December 6th, 2019

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 12.8.19

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)


    Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-


    • $LULU
    • $COST
    • $THO
    • $AZO
    • $ADBE
    • $AVGO
    • $CIEN
    • $MDB
    • $CHWY
    • $SFIX
    • $AEO
    • $GME
    • $OLLI
    • $TOL
    • $PLCE
    • $UNFI
    • $PLAY
    • $ORCL
    • $HDS
    • $CONN
    • $MTN
    • $JT
    • $LOVE
    • $CMD
    • $PLAB
    • $DBI
    • $ROAD
    • $VRA
    • $CDMO
    • $LQDT
    • $TLRD
    • $TWST
    • $PHR
    • $NDSN
    • $MESA
    • $VERU
    • $DLHC
    • $BLBD
    • $OXM
    • $NX
    • $GNSS
    • $PHX
    • $GTIM

    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:


    Monday 12.9.19 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Monday 12.9.19 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 12.10.19 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 12.10.19 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 12.11.19 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 12.11.19 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 12.12.19 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 12.12.19 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 12.13.19 Before Market Open:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    NONE.


    Friday 12.13.19 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    NONE.


    lululemon athletica inc. $229.38

    lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, December 11, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.93 per share on revenue of $896.50 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.98 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.90 to $0.92 per share on revenue of $880.00 million to $890.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.00% with revenue increasing by 19.91%. Short interest has increased by 9.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.0% above its 200 day moving average of $182.08. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, December 6, 2019 there was some notable buying of 927 contracts of the $260.00 call expiring on Friday, December 13, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.1% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Costco Wholesale Corp. $294.95

    Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, December 12, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.70 per share on revenue of $37.43 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.74 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.59% with revenue increasing by 6.73%. Short interest has increased by 19.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.3% above its 200 day moving average of $267.50. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 19, 2019 there was some notable buying of 916 contracts of the $265.00 put expiring on Friday, December 27, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Thor Industries, Inc. $67.77

    Thor Industries, Inc. (THO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, December 9, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.23 per share on revenue of $2.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.30 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.89% with revenue increasing by 30.98%. Short interest has increased by 48.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.0% above its 200 day moving average of $58.44. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, December 3, 2019 there was some notable buying of 838 contracts of the $60.00 put expiring on Friday, December 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.6% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    AutoZone, Inc. -

    AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, December 10, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $13.69 per share on revenue of $2.76 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $14.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1.63% with revenue increasing by 4.48%. Short interest has decreased by 13.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.9% above its 200 day moving average of $1,077.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.6% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Adobe Inc. $306.23

    Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 12, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.26 per share on revenue of $2.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.30 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $2.25 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 23.50% with revenue increasing by 20.51%. Short interest has increased by 44.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.1% above its 200 day moving average of $280.60. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 25, 2019 there was some notable buying of 505 contracts of the $340.00 call expiring on Friday, December 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Broadcom Limited $316.05

    Broadcom Limited (AVGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, December 12, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.36 per share on revenue of $5.76 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 7.27% with revenue increasing by 5.80%. Short interest has increased by 22.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.7% above its 200 day moving average of $288.21. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, December 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 625 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 5.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.7% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Ciena Corporation $35.00

    Ciena Corporation (CIEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, December 12, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $964.80 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $945.00 million to $975.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 26.92% with revenue increasing by 7.28%. Short interest has increased by 66.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 9.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.0% below its 200 day moving average of $39.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, December 6, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,156 contracts of the $36.00 put expiring on Friday, December 13, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.1% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    MongoDB, Inc. $131.17

    MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, December 9, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.28 per share on revenue of $99.73 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.26) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.29 to $0.27 per share on revenue of $98.00 million to $100.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 15.15% with revenue increasing by 53.47%. Short interest has increased by 15.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 16.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.1% below its 200 day moving average of $138.19. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 19, 2019 there was some notable buying of 970 contracts of the $210.00 call expiring on Friday, December 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.7% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Chewy, Inc. $24.95

    Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Monday, December 9, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.16 per share on revenue of $1.21 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.15) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has increased by 40.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.6% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 6.4% move on earnings in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Stitch Fix, Inc. $24.09

    Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, December 9, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.06 per share on revenue of $441.04 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.04) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $438.00 million to $442.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 160.00% with revenue increasing by 20.43%. Short interest has increased by 30.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 41.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.4% below its 200 day moving average of $24.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 21, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,000 contracts of the $13.00 put expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 20.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 18.9% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    DISCUSS!

    What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?


    I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
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    Tariffs looming....

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 07:22 AM PST

    Hello r/stocks is anyone worried about another repeat of last december? Does anyone think if tariffs go into effect on the 15 there will be a major drawback similar to last years december crash?

    submitted by /u/tazman141
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    Trucking Industry

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 02:12 PM PST

    As of late, the prices of freight are down. The amount of freight is up. The capacity to haul the freight is going down.

    If I were to make move in trucking related stock (USA) what would be the way to do it?

    Should I grab... commodities? A trucking company that is doing well? Or a distributor and producer of freight?

    Please, any advice is appreciated. I am new to investing, but I know there is opportunity somewhere here. Thanks!

    submitted by /u/Zoydberg_
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    TWTR has (finally) an activist now: right time to buy?

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 01:34 AM PST

    Scott Galloway who owns $10M of shares is pushing for CEO's replacement: https://www.profgalloway.com/twtr-enough-already/

    submitted by /u/oldcrobuzon
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    Ubisoft is listed as two separate tickers. UBSFF and UBSFY. As an American looking to invest, which one do I go with?

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 01:45 PM PST

    They have taken a lovely nose dive recently, but I believe the coming year with 3 AAA titles and the growth of their online Uplay+ service will make this worthwhile. I'm just confused on which to actually use.

    submitted by /u/WaffleMints
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    AUPH

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 09:39 AM PST

    Do you guys think it will drop on Monday or keep rising?

    submitted by /u/thomaswujek
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    What would you do with $50K?

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 09:21 AM PST

    I am a 29 year old and for the last few years I have been putting my savings into a fund (a UK bank fund) and the returns over that time has been just shy of 5%. I am thinking of investing in individual companies now and was looking for some advice. My time frame is 5-10 years. Now the stocks I want to invest in some are not very popular. I was thinking of investing in the following:

    *Uber $20K (Uber is not going anywhere imo and I just don't see how this company can fail given that it's become so ubiquitous. It also has first mover advantage. Once they stop concentrating on expansion I think they have a good chance at profitability)

    *TWTR $10K (Would I get shouted at if I said this is like a utility company? It has become part of everyday life and is used by politicians and all the way down to the common man. You want live news. This is the closest you can get to that.)

    *VRTX $10K (produce the only drug that directly treats cystic fibrosis itself. This could be a huge profit driver)

    *VISA $10K (contactless payments are on the way up and society is going towards cashless transactions)

    I am open to ideas and if this seems stupid do tell. I have a good job and an emergency fund should I need it. I want to start investing now so I can be comfortable when I am an old man iA. Grateful for any advice.

    submitted by /u/SlowTortuga
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    Has $NFLX reached peak market penetration in the US?

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 08:50 AM PST

    The below table is adapted directly from the Netflix Q3 2019 earnings report. According to Netflix, their churn rate, i.e. people unsubscribing, is around 9% per quarter. Using this, one can calculate the total churn, the gross added subscriptions as well as the net added subscriptions. CAC (customer acquistion cost) is calulated by dividing marketing spend by gross added subscriptions, netCAC by dividing marketing spend by net added subscriptions. Numbers in thousands, apart from CAC and netCAC.

    Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
    Subscript. 55.087 55.959 56.957 58.486 60.229 60.103 60.620
    Marketing $250.719 $251.298 $210.595 $312.739 $221.046 $250.606 $211.793
    Churn 4.958 5.036 5.126 5.264 5.421 5.409 5.456
    Gross add 7.030 5.830 6.034 6.655 7.007 5.295 5.926
    Net add 2.277 872 998 1.529 1.743 (126) 517
    CAC $35.66 $43.11 $34.90 $46.99 $31.55 $47.33 $35.74
    netCAC $110.11 $288.19 $211.02 $204.54 $126.82 ($1988.94) $409.66

    As you can see, CAC has only risen marginally. netCAC however - which is the important metric - has reached enormous levels. The marginal cost of adding one additional subscriber is nearly $410 - equal to more than 16 quarters of average revenue (~$25). So right now it takes more than 16 quarters for a new user to just recoup the marketing spend.

    The outlook: Netflix own estimates for total domestic subscriptions is 61.220.000 - that is adding 600.000 new subscribers in Q4. They also stated that marketing spend will be more weighted towards the fourth quarter. Let's just assume a lower bound of $312 million - which would be the same spend as in Q4 2018. In reality, marketing spend should be closer to $400 million, thanks to new competitors (Apple TV, Disney+, NBCUniversal's Peacock...). But numbers are already disastrous with the lower bound. $312 million for 600 thousand new subscriptions is around $520 per effective new subscriber. That is more than 20 quarters - or five years.

    These numbers are unsustainable. Effectively, Netflix has reached its peak user baser in the US. There are around 129 million households in the US. Nearly 50% have a Netflix subscription (probably even more, if you consider shared accounts). There is just no one left who would still become a new Netflix subscriber.

    At the same time, new competitors enter the ring (as mentioned above). Which means, that the churn rate might rise a little bit. Maybe up to 10%, maybe even 12%. More importantly though: the users who decide for a subscription service have a choice now. Disney+ is only $7 a month. And they've spent the last two years acquiring licenses for all time classic movies and series. This makes them a lot more attractive than Netflix.

    Some people might even consider Apple TV - others have Amazon Prime Video. There is also Hulu, HBO Go and NBCUniversal's Peacock. What all of those companies have in common: They are not solely reliant on streaming as a source of revenue. Apple and Amazon have pockets deeper than the Mariana trench. Netflix doesn't. In fact, Netflix burns around $3.5 billion dollars of cash this year. And the year before. They have amassed more than $32 billion in debt. Financed through junk bonds. Just in 2019, their interest payments will be more than $600 million. Those numbers are rising dramatically. Unless they raise new capital...

    Netflix uses the cash to produce new content. All kinds of movies and series. But here is the trap: In the moment they stop, people will unsubscribe. They do not have the same library depth anymore. I remember when I could watch "The Godfather" on Netflix (I am located in Germany). Not anymore. Same with other favourite movies of mine. So all Netflix has remaining, are their own productions. And so they have to produce and produce and produce more shows - while prices for production increase and they suddenly have to share the market with more players.

    Internationalisation does not help much, since different cultures prefer different content. Series like "Casa de papel" which cater to an international audience are rare. So what should Netflix do? Continue their content-producing spending spree, getting more and more into debt? What if interest rates rise and suddenly they have to pay 8% or more?

    Their latest issued bond is already at 6.375%:

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/bonds/netflix_incdl-notes_201919-29-bond-2029-us64110lax47

    So that means they have to stop spending so much on production and marketing. Unfortunately though, that would make people leave the platform even quicker. Also, they would lack arguments as to why people should subscribe in the first place.

    Lastly, international growth will not help to ease the pressure. Each market wants their own series and movies. New markets are more expensive. And there will hardly be a market with similarly high revenue per subscription as the US.

    While I am positive that Netflix will find its way - $150 billion market valuation is just 70% too much for a company that stopped growing in its most important market and burns $3.5 billion in cash every year. Financed by more and more expensive junk bonds and trapped in a "damned if you do, damned if you do" situation, there is really no basis whatsoever for a valuation as right now.

    Way down we go...

    I have bought a put option expiring two days after earnings in January at a strike price of $270.

    submitted by /u/silvio_berlusponyy
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    Vocabulary Question

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 11:35 AM PST

    Hey Guys, I am reading a book titled "What Works on Wall Street". At the end he went over investment strategies and there is an abbreviation I do not understand. I will appreciate any help as there is no context in the book that I can find.

    Question: what does "Bx" stand for? *Its not black stone.

    It is used in the book as "Cap Bx. $25mm, $250mm, PSR<1, Top 25 stocks by 1-Yr Rel Str."

    Thanks Guys!

    submitted by /u/smithse001
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    Are uber and spotify's business model and sustainable long term?

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 10:37 AM PST

    Uber and spotify both have similar business model's where they undercut other services available to consumers but take advantage of distributing less money to drivers or artists. Is this really an ethical business model and is it really sustainable? On the other side, for example with Spotify it allows artists to bring in another source of income from royalties. I also feel like audio streaming is a way to limit the amount of illegal music downloading because Spotify has millions of songs readily available for download purposes.

    submitted by /u/GmonkeyFunkmoney
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    Small but Consistent Weekly Growth

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 10:23 AM PST

    Is it reasonable to get $100 a week investing 2000$ fairly consistently. (of course there will be bad weeks, but there may also be extremely good weeks)

    submitted by /u/thomaswujek
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    Best Stock for 2020 and future

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 09:34 AM PST

    Hello, quick question what's your favourite picks for 2020 and future and why? ;) My picks: -AMD -> beat intel -Tencent -> owns more and more -Pinterest -> could grow like facebook -China mobile ->5g -Teva ???? What you think about mine?

    submitted by /u/Szoreek1
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    What are the important news events that that effects the S&p500,NASDAQ and TSx60?

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 02:43 AM PST

    I'm thinking of swing trading broader markets, such as ETFS that take in S&p500 or NASDQ or TSX60 because I find dealing with earnings of individual stocks cumbersome, due to earnings or sudden bad/good news. Even individual sectors, such as oil or natural gas etfs because of weather changes or some sort of oversupply.

    My reasoning is that each individual news event would have less of an impact on the market as a whole, making it easier to trade from a technical analysis POV. Are there important announcements and events that would dramatically impact the s&p500/NASDAQ or TSX60 the same way an earnings report would have on an individual stock? is this reasoning sound?

    submitted by /u/jayfoxpox
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    Sell or hold? (WDI.DE)

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 04:42 AM PST

    I invested in Wirecard in January 2019. As you can imagine, that's quite bad timing. The stock rose and then basically plummeted all year long. I'm thinking about selling at loss. It's maybe a bad idea, but I wouldn't buy the stock again and I'm thinking that while I'm waiting for the stock to recover, I could also sell it and use the money to invest in something more stable. The money could already be put to good use.

    I'm on the fence on this. Could anyone provide some advice?

    submitted by /u/theresnoyinhappiness
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    MEDIF

    Posted: 07 Dec 2019 02:06 AM PST

    Cannabis extraction company.

    Their balance sheet is crazy nice, their extraction which means they have lots of room for different products such as CBD only medical products, they are doing the smart move of expanding into Europe and Australia, novel extraction technology, positive revenue while investing in growth.

    The only downside is they are a penny stock.

    What's with the price tag?

    submitted by /u/CookhouseOfCanada
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    How much do you consider recommendations and ratings before investing in a stock?

    Posted: 06 Dec 2019 09:05 PM PST

    I've found a company which seems very strong to grow. However it's rated by Goldman Sachs and other banks as overvalued. I just wanted to ask whether this is something you consider much or not.

    submitted by /u/VanHouzen
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    About to put some money in Aphria!

    Posted: 06 Dec 2019 02:28 PM PST

    I'm excited. This will be my first buy. I've been doing some research and I feel confident in Aphria. Just thought I'd share!

    submitted by /u/laaanscaf69
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