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    Monday, August 5, 2019

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 04 Aug 2019 05:15 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Chinese Yuan Crashes Past 7/USD To Record Low

    Posted: 04 Aug 2019 06:59 PM PDT

    This is the first time in quite awhile if ever that the Chinese Yuan has gone below $6.90/USD. When it stays above its support of $6.90 is represents stability but it has gone right through its support tonight.

    All US Markets futures very red.

    submitted by /u/jcarmona24
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    What are your top dividend stocks?

    Posted: 04 Aug 2019 04:18 PM PDT

    Title explains all

    submitted by /u/dh1317
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    How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio

    Posted: 04 Aug 2019 06:11 PM PDT

    How did you learn to invest?

    Posted: 04 Aug 2019 05:39 PM PDT

    Where did you learn how to invest?

    I feel like I will always be behind and never fully understand it. I want to understand it and be comfortable with it so bad. I've downloaded learning apps and have tried doing as much research as I can.

    Besides going to college or school for it, what would you recommend to learning how to properly invest and be smart about it?

    submitted by /u/Clb010
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    Thoughts on the state of the markets and stock watchlist for 8/5 - 8/12 trading week (LONG POST)

    Posted: 04 Aug 2019 09:45 PM PDT

    Hey y'all,

    APOLOGIES FOR THE LONG POST - If you're here just for the picks, scroll down and skip my scattered musings on the state of the markets for the week

    What a week for the stock market we just had! JPOW, earnings/guidance all over the place (I'm looking at you, $SQ, $ETSY), new tariffs on China. Unless we get significant news about a positive trade deal development we should expect the new week to be a great one for the bears - markets should lose (quite) a few points across the board, with the potential for a significant drop (we're talking SPY below 280 very quickly, if 285-287ish resistance doesn't hold) depending on the news that come ahead.

    Even if the main indicators and most stonks come down, however, we know that some will trend up. There are promising potential venues for traders to make a profit across the aisle, and if you've followed my posts/watchlists for some time you know that I advocate for investing in individual stocks, and I think both bears and bulls can make a profit in these markets. With the trade war, we know that not all sectors will be affected equally, and if we learned anything from the previous round of tariffs in early May, we know that some sectors and some stocks are actually quite strong in times of trade war turmoil. Cybersecurity, software, health insurance, genetics, (some) medical devices, etc. proved pretty strong in the last round of cuts. And I personally expect cybersecurity, software, and much in the health care sector to climb up/correct in the weeks ahead.

    With all this said, make sure you identify those strong stocks that are oversold and shouldn't be (so) affected by the new tariffs, and keep a close eye on those. If you think a strong company's stock has been unfairly hit by trade war news and no other significant news (ehem... CRWD, OKTA, ZS, NOW, MDB), then there's no reason why you should stop investing on that stock, especially if you're in for the long term.

    If you're feeling overly bearish on the main indicators, keep in mind that a lot of the damage from the news we know (that the US will impose new tariffs on China, that the Chinese govt. is considering retaliation, etc.) will be priced in. By the time the markets open (expect a sharp drop in all main indicators then), we should see the gains of over two months totally wiped out... (in just a few days since FOMC+Tariff tweet, mind you). So if you're considering going all in on SPY puts (like a couple of you messaged me about!), reconsider. The optimal time to have done this was right after the tariff tweets or even holding puts over the weekend. Monday at market open might not be such a good idea - it'll all be contingent on what we hear from Trump/China on trade developments, and whatever way the news media spins that. Expect the coming week(s) to be all about China (just like early May was)... Though y'all already knew that.

    Also keep in mind that we have (yet another) big round of earnings ahead of us (i.e. $DIS, $ROKU, $TTD, $LYFT/UBER, etc.), Xi's (hopefully lack of) retaliation, Trump's whimsical (to say the least) trade policy decisions/responses in the next week, and plenty of significant developments in the global economy to keep an eye out for (i.e. watch out for developments on Brexit and Boris Johnson [my heart goes to my fellow Brits for such a joke of a PM]; developments with Iran and in the Middle East as a whole; unrest in HK; currency wars, etc.). Plenty of news/potentials to turn the markets around. Also keep in mind that Buffett's Berkshire is holding more cash than ever (would love to hear your thoughts about this/its implications below!)

    Here's a list of stocks to keep a watch on for bulls and bears, along with a very brief explanation on each:

    BULLISH:

    • $CRM is quite oversold, and the markets haven't really priced in the positive news with the $BABA partnership. There's an encouraging amount of buying in the 8/23 $150C, and we ($CRM traders/investors) know the company's tremendous potential and solid fundamentals. If feeling bullish at all this week, this is one to consider.
    • $CRWD and $OKTA. These have come down sharply on no good reason, they are in an essential sector that grew in the last round of tariffs. Both are incredibly strong companies ($CRWD well ahead of $OKTA imo, and with much more potential to soar in the short term). $CRWD dropped on Friday on no volume. Monster growth company with VERY few stocks available for trading in a sector well positioned to grow during the trade wars. If bullish, $CRWD should be HIGH on your watchlist, $OKTA closely following. $ZS is also a strong entry, especially if going long (and willing to cash in on strong upcoming earnings!)
    • Software/cloud and other tech companies such as $NOW, $MDB, $SPLK, $TWLO (all alarmingly oversold), $ADBE (strongish close above 290, very oversold), $TEAM (Oppenheimer Tech Conference 8/6-8/7) and even popular tech companies like $FB and $PINS. None of these should be terribly hurt by new tariffs, have much potential from a technical standpoint, and are much smarter investments than companies in other sectors such as retail, construction, finances, etc. These stand to lose the least (and win the most, if any!) in the middle of the trade frenzy.
    • Do not underestimate the positive Barron's mentions that $LULU and $NKE received, and consider that the stocks have gotten significant analyst upgrades in the last month or two. Good to keep high on your watchlists if you're a bull or considering entry on a strong retail stock

    BEARISH:

    • Most things, really... I wouldn't consider starting positions on retail right now. For those of you who trade options and are bearish, a lot of the cheddar is to be made here. Shorting stocks like $DLTR and $BBY should print tendies, and I do think there's lots of potential for your $WM and $COST to keep dropping quite a bit.
    • Bearish on $CAT, $DE, $MMM
    • Bearish on oil companies/oil across the board for next week
    • SPY will come down hard if no good news (from China, especially) on the horizon

    EARNINGS PLAYS (I will post an explanation for these in my personal wall to declutter this post):

    • BULLISH: $DIS (holding some calls, will be picking up a few more right before earnings**) , $TTD, $STMP, $CRON**
    • BEARISH: $MELI, $ROKU, $WYNN (considering buying puts right before earnings)

    LETS GET THE CHEDDAR, MIS AMIGOS.

    Have a bountiful trading week

    ***Note: I changed the format of this week's post a little and tried to include a little more information on why those are high on my watchlist. This is not investment advise, as you know. For the negative posters - The main purpose for this post, as in the past, is to start a conversation about individual stocks and to encourage sharing ideas about strong stocks/stocks with more easily discernable patterns. I know that many have benefited in the past, and I will continue to work on these in spite of the shade. Again, these picks are for you to research and to know well, before jumping in.

    ***I'll be posting flash stock picks and thoughts on my reddit wall sporadically throughout the week. Make sure you keep an eye out for those!

    submitted by /u/EsteevTrabajos1
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    Fidelity’s No Cost Index Funds?

    Posted: 04 Aug 2019 06:54 AM PDT

    A few sources have recommended Fidelity's no cost index funds to me recently. I'm transitioning out of my Robo-Advisor (not great gains compared to indexes) and wanted to buy etfs/mutual funds instead.

    The recommended funds were: - FNILX (S&P500) - FZROX (Total Market) - FZILX (International Market) - FZIPX (Small+Mid Cap)

    The funds seems to be doing well-enough, and the first one is pretty much exactly tracking the S&P.

    Is there a risk I'm missing for them being no cost? Any insight is greatly appreciated, thanks!

    submitted by /u/aumbersharma
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    The impossible trinity

    Posted: 05 Aug 2019 12:50 AM PDT

    In light of the recent RMB devaluation, let's revisit one of my favourite topics concerning exchange rates.

    The "impossible trinity" or the "trilemma", which states that you can have only 2 of the following 3 options:

    • Fixed exchange rate
    • Independent monetary policy
    • Free capital movement

    To understand why, we can focus first on the first 2 options (the "dilemma"). If a foreign country wants to peg its currency against the dollar they can do so by:

    1) printing more of their own currency, if it appreciates 2) buying their own currency with their foreign currency reserves, it the currency depreciates. In principle option 1) is easier to do since in theory the country can print unlimited amounts of money. Nevertheless, it has its limits (see CHF/EUR from 2011 to 2014). Option 2 can only be achieved while reserves last, but many countries manage to balance these forces appropriately for years.

    The dilemma appears if the country (A) then decides that they want interest rates different than those in the country (B) they have pegged their currency against. If the country A decides that they want to offer higher interest rates than in B, then investors will want to invest in country A. This situation of course cannot hold. Demand for bonds in currency A will increase dramatically and drive down the price until it is equal to the price in country B. The opposite is also true, if country A wants to offer lower rates, then investors will take their money out of the country and invest it in B. The dilemma is therefore complete you have to chose between independent monetary policy and a fixed exchange rate.

    But what happens if we add capital controls? Then investors cannot move their money freely from one country to another. Investors cannot easily move their capital around as interest rates diverge, and therefore the demand and supply pressures do not occur, seemingly allowing the government to have its cake and eat it too (see China, they have fixed ex. rate and their own monetary policy).

    Unfortunately, free capital flows are often desirable. One of the key strengths of capitalism is that it allows investors to allocate capital to where its more productive. This strength is lost when capital flows are controlled. It remains to be seen whether China will be able to manage their currency as they have done until now when their economy matures and slows its growth.

    submitted by /u/Druheinv
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    5G stocks

    Posted: 04 Aug 2019 08:13 PM PDT

    So I've been reading a lot about 5G and how big it is suppose to be. What companies will prosper from this the most? I hold Verizon, but I'm wondering if there is better stocks to own for this or not.

    submitted by /u/CutMaster-
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    China just devalued the Yuan in response to the trade war. Which means China's purchasing power has declined. Does that mean that China is paying for Trump's tariffs after all??

    Posted: 04 Aug 2019 07:38 PM PDT

    Everyone assured me that only American importers bear the true cost of the tariffs...

    submitted by /u/Power80770M
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    Land development idea (billboard + palm trees)

    Posted: 05 Aug 2019 12:56 AM PDT

    Hi All,

    A few years ago I was fortunate to gain a piece of land which is about 6,000 SQM (64583.46 SQF) in a Mediterranean country. The piece is on a main road in a fast growing region (also very fertile land) and I have been consider how I could develop this idle land into a revenue generating asset. I don't have a lot of money so I was thinking to do something such as build a billboard on the main road side of the piece and generate income from an advertiser. The remainder of the land would be used to create a palm tree plantation (typically EUR 15/per for a 2-3m baby tree) with the hypothesis that I can let them grow and sell them after 3-5 years (when grown) to people looking to buy palm trees building homes.

    What do you think of my strategy?

    Also, not sure how to proceed with building a billboard (most cost over 10k).

    image 1 https://imgur.com/UZ321dv

    image 2 https://imgur.com/bCFwS1U

    small end of piece = main road.

    submitted by /u/jhadj
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    Abrupt Ousters, Public Missteps Sink Morale Inside New York Fed

    Posted: 05 Aug 2019 04:17 AM PDT

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-04/abrupt-ousters-shake-staff-inside-new-york-fed?srnd=premium

    The sudden departure of two longtime officials shook staff, sank morale and drew attention to the leadership of the New York Fed under John Williams as he enters his second year at the helm. On Wall Street, questions arose again a couple of weeks ago when a speech he gave inadvertently whipsawed markets.

    The story involves Simon Potter, who ran the all-important markets desk, and Richard Dzina, head of the financial services group. Both were abruptly relieved of their roles in late May by Williams. Little explanation was given, but according to current and former New York Fed employees, as well as those close to the bank, the nature of the exits, by fault or design, seemed to be a warning: fall in line.

    Williams, who during his San Francisco Fed days often mentioned his reluctance to pay too much attention to short-term swings in the markets, came under fire on July 18 after saying in a speech that central banks should act quickly "at the first sign of economic distress."

    With the remarks coming just a day before Fed officials entered a quiet period prior to their July 30-31 policy meeting, traders immediately took his comments to mean a more-aggressive rate cut was in store. The New York Fed issued a rare clarification walking back his comments later that day, causing another sharp move in the opposite direction.

    I am aware that it isn't a directly investing article, but the Fed has a major impact on the market (cut rate, hold them, raise them, tinker with QE, etc), and having drama play out in it would add uncertainty.

    submitted by /u/COMPUTER1313
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    Gold Hits New Highs, MCX watch on Gold

    Posted: 05 Aug 2019 04:03 AM PDT

    Where can you see 5B $ fine in Financial Reports for Facebook?

    Posted: 05 Aug 2019 03:57 AM PDT

    I can't find it here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FB/cash-flow?p=FB

    What am I missing?

    submitted by /u/flyingtable_
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    How safe is Webull?

    Posted: 04 Aug 2019 06:23 PM PDT

    I've been getting add for 2 free stocks at Webull and I'm interested, but it also scares me a bit that the holding company is a Chinese firm I've never heard of. I don't feel I can necessarily trust them blindly with my SSN and other sensitive personal data.

    Am I being paranoid?

    submitted by /u/manfrin
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    What's your opinion on the 'Dogs of the DOW'?

    Posted: 04 Aug 2019 07:15 PM PDT

    "The Dogs of The Dow is an investing strategy that consists of buying the ten stocks with the highest dividend yield out of the 30 DJIA components at the beginning of the year."

    Historically, this strategy has outperformed the S&P 500 by 1.2% points. Has anyone had positive (or negative) experience in trying this strategy?

    submitted by /u/Savanty
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    Employee stock options

    Posted: 04 Aug 2019 08:24 PM PDT

    I am naive to how this works, please forgive my ignorance.

    I work for a company that has been bought by another company.

    I received an "Offer to purchase for cash" for my stock.

    Is selling my only option? Will my shares not roll over into the new company?

    The offer is via a "procedure" known as the modified "Dutch Auction."

    I have a book and have to read and understand it before 8/16/19

    Reading it is doable, fully understanding - I will need to do a lot of self education.

    Would I be better off calling the firm that holds the shares to discuss this? Do you think I can count on them to provide advice in my best interest?

    Thank you so much!

    submitted by /u/Sayyoulikecrepes
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    Why are companies annoucing stock buybacks rather than higher Expected dividends?

    Posted: 05 Aug 2019 01:53 AM PDT

    I don't really see the value buybacks contribute to people who hold and never sell. Why are companies paying more dividends rather than conducting buybacks?

    submitted by /u/JuicySmoothie
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    What % of your total net worth do you keep in liquid assets like cash?

    Posted: 05 Aug 2019 12:23 AM PDT

    Wondering :)

    submitted by /u/fittes7
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    Looking to move eventual house down payment into a low/no fee bond with low/no withdrawal penalty.

    Posted: 04 Aug 2019 10:42 PM PDT

    We've saved up enough for a down payment on a house with everything sitting in an S&P mutual fund for several years. We just recently pulled it all out because we don't want to risk losing it with a recession looming, and we also can't really afford the mortgage payment until the recession hits anyway (CA bay area). Where is a good place to invest it that isn't tied to the market but will allow us to withdraw it at a moment's notice? We're with Schwab and there are like a hundred different bonds available and it's pretty overwhelming. I'm worried they'll try to push me toward something with higher fees. I just want something simple that will grow I imagine in the 2-3% range but obviously higher is better. If something outside of Schwab is considerably better then I am willing to move it out. Thank you.

    submitted by /u/nibiyabi
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    xpost on CRISPR (CRSP; EDIT; INTL)

    Posted: 04 Aug 2019 10:10 AM PDT

    Edit: Goddamnit got the ticker wrong for NTLA (INTELIA THERAPEUTICS)

    CRISPR is frequently explained through the following analogy: "It's like CTRL+F for DNA." CRISPR can be used to change DNA and, in theory, can permanently cure genetic diseases. Animal studies have been promising, and now human trials are underway. CTRL+C and CTRL+V are being developed to complement this technology.

    Three publicly traded companies are in the CRISPR business, developing therapies. Some at the trial stage.

    CRSP - Furthest along, trialing drugs for severe sickle cell disease and beta-thallessemia. Results expected early in 2021 ($50.00 per share) (HQ: Sweden)

    EDIT - Working on a cure for the leading cause of congenital blindness. Treatment in the eyeball, which has low immune activity, may make for a good target for CRISPR. ($24.97 per share) (HQ: US)

    INTL - Developing a few treatments, none very far along. ($17.70 per share) (HQ: US)

    This technology has some challenges, but breakthroughs are announced in the media frequently.

    I split $10,000 evenly between these companies. CRSP has given me a 30% return, with the others around 5%. The price swings cyclically with the tech sector, but often outperforms it.

    I'm most partial to CRSP in the short term, because it's further along and the US pharma regulatory and pricing market might be in for a drastic change, exposing INTL and EDIT to more volatility.

    Thoughts, discussion, and questions welcome.

    submitted by /u/AgreeableWriter
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    Did I screw myself by rolling over a 401k to a tIRA?

    Posted: 04 Aug 2019 11:47 AM PDT

    I realized after calculating my MAGI I may not be able to fully deduct contributions being made to this tIRA. Maybe this isn't a big deal since I have unlimited investment options now compared to rolling it into my new employer's 401k (terrible options and expense ratios). On top of this I have a Roth IRA I'll soon be not eligible to contribute to and wife's old 401k from previous employer that can no longer contribute to.

    How many accounts is too many? 401k (new employer) rIRA tIRA (85% of portfolio due to rollover) Wife's 401k (part time now and not eligible to contribute, roll this into an IRA to?!)

    Looking for some peace of mind on where I should be focusing my efforts without listening to the three fund portfolio speech from Bogleheads.

    submitted by /u/Tikola_Nesla1
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    Investing in amazon and also does none dividend stocks pay out to the share holders

    Posted: 05 Aug 2019 02:52 AM PDT

    Question? if you buy shares from amazon how do they pay out?

    also does all none dividends shares pay there share holders

    submitted by /u/cyberninjad12
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    Income generating, recession resistant

    Posted: 04 Aug 2019 07:05 PM PDT

    I've currently got about 500k diversified between stock indexes and bonds 70/30. Obviously some of this is yield producing and I am hoping the bonds will buffer me a little bit during a downturn. Actually, if I find the right property, my plan is to sell bonds to use as a down payment (hopefully at a point when real estate is slightly or a lot depressed). Is there a better asset than bonds for this? I've been seeing a lot of REIT hype recently. These are also less correlated with stocks but may generate more yield.

    EDIT: Typo. Bonded boobs.

    submitted by /u/mr_mftsy
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    Books for someone with no financial background

    Posted: 04 Aug 2019 06:42 PM PDT

    Any recommendations for books to read that are somewhat easy to under stand? Maybe cover how to read a balance sheet, intrinsic value, other general ideas.

    I will read the intelligent investor because I see that is the most popular. I just hope I can understand it without any formal background in finance.

    submitted by /u/L0stguy
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