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    Thursday, July 11, 2019

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 11 Jul 2019 05:14 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    When I hear “an inverted yield curve has preceded every recession” - how many times has the yield curve inverted VS how many true recessions (<10%) have there been?

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 08:00 PM PDT

    This stat gets thrown around a lot, but perspective would be helpful.

    submitted by /u/AnimalTom23
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    S&P 500 Index officially hits 3000

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 06:52 AM PDT

    Given Virgin Galactic going public, thoughts on this Space Portfolio?

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 05:30 PM PDT

    Link to portfolio

    Goals:-Maintain holdings in broad array of companies involved in aeronautical engineering, research, and manufacturing.-Donate half of all income distributions to organizations promoting space travel and public interest (personal goal, I wouldn't recommend if investing purely for profit)

    Performance Since 2017 (link):

    CAGR Stdev Best Yr Worst Yr US Mkt Correlation
    11.38% 19.60% 24.49% -5.57% 0.81

    Holdings:

    Company Description Ticker Target Allocation Comment Crowning Achievement(s) in Space
    Boeing Global aeronautical design, manufacturing, and research company BA 21% Prime contractor for NASA and has reach in nearly every stage of space travel. Lunar Roving Vehicle, Saturn V, International Space Station, Space Shuttles, Delta Rockets (ULA), CST-100 Starliner (upcoming manned space capsule competing with Space X's dragon), SLS
    Lockheed Martin Corporation Global aeronautical design, manufacturing, and research company LMT 21% Prime defense contractor (received nearly 10% of Pentagon spending in 2013) Military and civilian satellites, multiple deep space probes, NASA's Orion crew vehicle (upcoming), Space Shuttle external tank
    Northrop Grumman Corporation Global aeronautical design, manufacturing, and research company NOC 18% Prime defense contractor James Webb Space Telescope, acquired Orbital ATK, extensive satellite and launch expertise
    Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings American rocket and missile manufacturer AJRD 13% Prime manufacturer of launch system engines Space Shuttle Main Engine, Delta, Atlas, and Ares engines, Blue Origin rocket engines
    Social Capital Hedosophia Public investment vehicle. Merging with Virgin Galactic in de facto IPO IPOA 7% Virgin Galactic aims to be at the forefront of space tourism. Implications for rapid terrestial transportation as well. Has working space plane and marked interest SpaceShipTwo
    ORBCOMM Inc. IoT and M2M communications company ORBC 4% Hosts satellite array for terrestrial communication ORBCOMM OG2 satellite array launched by Space X
    Iridium Communications Satellite communications company IRDM 4% Hosts satellite array for global terrestrial communication Iridium Satellite Constellation
    Maxar Technologies Inc. Satellite, on-orbit servicing, Earth observation company MAXR 4% Contractor for NASA and other space programs Canadarm, Dextre, NASA Lunar Gateway (upcoming)
    ViaSat Inc. Satellite TV company VSAT 4%
    Heico Corporation Manufacturer of niche aeronautical parts HEI 2% Extensive reach in all aeronautical sectors
    Arconic Inc. Specialized lightweight metals manufacuter ARNC 2% Spinoff of Alcoa Corp.

    Considerations:

    -Given the genesis of US space-faring, almost all US companies involved in space travel have extensive operations in defense or weapons manufacturing. This presents certain ethical questions that an investor must consider.

    -Space travel is not profitable. Nearly all profits generated by these companies for their efforts in space came directly from government contracts. There are at present very few profit-motivations in outer space. An investor should be aware that the companies above act very differently from the widget manufacturers of Economics 101.

    -The allocation weightings above are based on my own inferences. I considered each company's market cap, as well as the proportion of space-related revenues to all revenues, but ultimately the allocations above are totally made up.

    Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions

    Additionally today I made a subreddit for space investing because there was limited discussion elsewhere on reddit. If you're interested in this kind of thing, check out R/spaceinvesting

    submitted by /u/Awesomesauce1492
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    JP Morgan is rolling out a robo-adviser with free ETFs to lure new investors

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 04:57 AM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/jpmorgan-creates-robo-adviser-you-invest-portfolios-with-free-etfs.html

    After years of development, J.P. Morgan is releasing a digital investing service called You Invest Portfolios.

    For an annual fee of 0.35% of assets, J.P. Morgan will put users into an investment portfolio made up of the bank's ETFs.

    Unlike most rivals, J.P. Morgan is waiving fees for the underlying investments, which should cut investors' costs by about 15 basis points, according to the bank.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    The 10y-3m yield curve has now been inverted for over 30 straight days. This chart highlights each time this has happened since 1982....

    Posted: 11 Jul 2019 05:13 AM PDT

    Trump has reportedly tasked aides to find a way to weaken the US dollar

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 12:00 PM PDT

    A question for those investing in the resources space

    Posted: 11 Jul 2019 03:04 AM PDT

    If you are an investor in the resources sector, and specifically in Exploration and Mining Companies, what is your greatest challenge in picking stocks with a high probability of being successful?

    What is your greatest challenge in knowing when to exit your position?

    submitted by /u/MinerExperience
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    IPO mania produced record exits for VCs in second quarter, PitchBook says

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 09:28 PM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/ipos-from-uber-pinterest-zoom-produced-record-exits-in-q2-pitchbook.html

    Uber accounted for almost half of the exit value from venture-backed companies in the quarter, while Slack, Zoom, Pinterest and CrowdStrike made up most of the rest.

    The biggest prior period for exits was the second quarter of 2012, when Facebook went public.

    Private financing is getting a big boon as pension funds and endowments pour money back into new venture funds.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    FED rate cut over hype?

    Posted: 11 Jul 2019 05:29 AM PDT

    I feel like with all the headlines going around the market is being overhyped in a possible rate cut rather than a no cut and no raise. The problem here is SPY has been rallying purely based on the fact that Fed will cut the rates. The global fundamentals haven't shifted rather it has gotten worse as we stall the war. Has Powell actually hinted directly or indirectly that's so obvious to justify such a confident market rally?

    submitted by /u/MuskIsAlien
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    Altitude Group Plc (LON:ALT) - the promotional products monster. Potential to become a Billion $ company.

    Posted: 11 Jul 2019 05:27 AM PDT

    (Disclosure: I hold 125k+ shares in ALT)

    I have been researching and buying ALT for 6 months now, and thought I would share some of my research. The next update is due at the end of August/early September.

    Quick snapshot of company: https://ibb.co/hdRMkJ4 (They have ~£7m more cash than listed here due to placing in early 2019)

    ALT operates in the USA, but is listed on the U.K. AIM marketplace, as that is where the legacy business is situated. I wouldn't be surprised to see a dual listing in a few years. In my opinion the business is undervalued by a factor of 10, in part because of the U.K. listing and the lack of broker coverage (only 1 broker covers it atm).

    The only broker notes available on the stock are written by Finncap. The company looks dirt cheap on their forecasts, yet I believe that their forecasts are extremely conservative.

    My notes:

    Altitude Research - basic

    29/5/19

    What do ALT do?

    Altitude (ALT) own AIM, the largest promotional products distributor member group in the US.

    Promotional products are branded merchandise produced for companies, usually for marketing purposes. Think a cap, or pen, with the Google logo on it for example.

    A distributor member group is where a group of smaller market distributors club together to achieve benefits from scale such as wholesale supplier discounts, for example.

    ALT also own AIMPro, an online tech platform for the AIM member group that provides additional online services to AIM members (distributors) and those that supply them.

    Promotional products is a $23bn mkt in the USA.

    • Highly fragmented.
    • Only 23% of business is done online.
    • 42% of the market share is from 22,700 small distributors with revs <$2.5mil/year.
    • >88.5% of orders placed face to face/fax/phone/email.
    • <11.5% of orders processed online with small distributors.

    The above suggests to me that there may be huge potential for consolidation in the market, and also for market participants to move their business online.

    ALT's AIM is the largest player in the market, having an 8% market share, with $1.9bn in member revenues. Next largest competitors by sales are 4imprint (LON:FOUR) $608m, and Staples, $592m.

    The AIM member group was, in part, created to counter the potentially monopolistic threat from large online retailers.

    (As an aside, staff seem to be happy to leave 4imprint and other competitors to come to AIM:

    "we are delighted to have appointed Stacey McConnell as Vice President of Member Services who has over 20 years' experience at top 40 distributor companies, including 4imprint and AIA Corporation, and Cathy Cummings as Head of Vendor Relations who has over 18 years' experience with 4imprint and AIA Corporation.")

    ALT's AIM progress since Jan acquisition:

    Preferred Suppliers:

    Suppliers to AIM members (distributors) pay a % of sales to ALT to become "preferred suppliers". In return they get heavy marketing of their products to the AIM members (in trade mags, industry emails etc.) and AIM members get discounts when buying from them.

    New preferred supplier agreements, replacing the prior agreements, have been signed with 150 suppliers, down from 280 in Jan. Management want to reduce total preferred supplier numbers to concentrate sales to the best and most efficient operators. They can also charge preferred suppliers more as the preferred supplier slots become harder to get, and more valuable as AIM membership and therefore throughput revenue grows.

    Management say goal is "Strengthening and securing high performance partner suppliers and purposefully reducing those who dilute performance of the supply chain".

    Expect more preferred suppliers to be signed in 2019, apparently 250 is the final target.

    Management are also planning to introduce extra "packages" for suppliers, which potentially are tiered memberships in similar fashion to those which are outlined for distributors below. There will be three packages (tiers?), Gold, Platinum, and Diamond. This allows for additional monetisation of suppliers beyond just the % of order value. Details on this front are scarce at the moment however.

    Preferred suppliers pay ALT 3-6% of all orders of supply order value, depending on how the order was made. I have been informed that they pay up to 6% for offline sales, and up to 16% for online, but have not been able to fact check this.

    Members (Distributors):

    There are now 3 tiers of AIM membership: (these are how ALT monetises the members' throughput revenues)

    • AIM BASIC $59 flat fee(all AIM members were on this before ALT got involved) Current member benefits package:
      • AIM BASIC will represent the standard AI Mastermind membership. However, all members will be required to send data via EasySync meaning all orders are captured and invoiceable to the AIMPro preferred supplier regardless of how or where the order is processed. The average percentage GTR gained by AIMPro is dependent on the member throughput and influenced by whether it is derived online (at a higher rate) or offline.
    • AIM MARKETPRO $59 +3% of gross member revenue. Access to marketing and tech tools.
      • AIM MARKETPRO customers gain further benefits from enhanced membership including a full order processing system and quotes system, supplier follow up, some artwork and digitisation, and weekly social media posting. The cost to the member will include the base membership fee of US$59 per month plus a percentage of their gross transaction value.
    • AIM SALESPRO $59 +6% of gross member revenue. Access to all above + business, customer service, and sales admin assistance.
      • AIM SALESPRO customers benefit from full business management, full customer service support, full artwork/digitisation, and enhanced healthcare and retirement benefit packages. The cost to the member will include the base membership fee of US$59 per month plus a higher percentage of their gross transactional value.

    If signed up for the new, higher tiered packages "MARKETPRO", and "SALESPRO", AIM members get 1% cashback when ordering from preferred suppliers.

    51 AIM Members are now on these higher tier packages. Billing commenced 1st May. 400 tiered members expected by YE2019.

    Average member (distributor) revenue has risen from $870k (Jan presentation figure) --> $916k (May) (+5.3%)

    Member numbers have gone from 1917 (Nov) --> 2108 (May) (+10% in 5-6 months vs. 23% increase 17-18).

    As a result, AIM throughput sales have gone from $1.66bn --> $1.9bn (+14.5% in 5 months)

    AIMPro (Tech Suite):

    AIM Pro is "a patented technology platform for distributors which has a supply chain already built in and combines an ecommerce trading platform with a cloud based CRM and order management system that enables both offline and online promotional product transactions to be executed."

    AIMPro is important as it provides opportunities for ALT to charge for additional services as part of the tiered pricing model.

    Member sales through AIM pro have risen from $19.9m in FY2018 → $31m in the first 5 months of 2019 ($48.9 FY19 assuming no uptick in current growth rate), however rate IS accelerating ($1mil/week in March → over $2mil/week in April).

    • AIMPro ordering member growth 60.9% YTD vs. same 20 week period last year.
    • Sales order growth 56.2% YTD vs same 20 week period last year.
    • 893 AIM members already using ALT tools.
    • 2900 live websites and company stores.

    AIMPro was previously ALT's bread and butter - charging AIM members to use. Now with acquisition of AIM, monetisation no longer solely reliant on AIMPro usage.

    EasySync:

    This is because of EasySync, which all AIM members are required to use. To repeat myself, this a service whereby all orders are captured and invoiceable to the AIM preferred supplier regardless of how or where the order is processed (fax/phone/online/face-to-face). The average percentage GTR (gross transactional revenue) gained by AIM is dependent on the member throughput and influenced by whether it is derived online (at a higher rate) or offline.

    In other words, using EasySync allows ALT to invoice suppliers for all their sales to AIM members, whereas previously ALT could only invoice suppliers for orders conducted via AIMPro.

    Additional value here is the data gathered from EasySync/the AIMPro platform. Once captured when,what, and where members are ordering can fine tune with suppliers to improve efficiencies and in turn drive greater order flow. (simplistic e.g. Water bottles selling well at start of summer. AIM EasySync data shows, goes to suppliers, suppliers know to hold more stock, widen bottle range etc). This data has huge $ value to the industry, as it is essentially market research, driving efficiencies, and saving market participants money.

    In conclusion, it is my opinion that ALT is massively undervalued. They have captured the ~$2bn of revenues of the AIM member group, and it is now a matter of when, not a matter of if, they monetise these revenues.

    Some links:

    Most recent copmany presentation: https://www.altitudeplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Altitude-2018-Preliminary-Results-Investor-Presentation-%E2%80%93-June-2019.pdf

    My short notes on the Annual General Meeting (AGM): https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-a-rAvfuwutLMq5GN9xwSY-yhNopEx-A7mR2Xc-6sVw/edit

    If interested in any other UK listed stocks, you can follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/Naan_Deal

    submitted by /u/Naan_Deal
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    Stock Pick- Wednesday, July 10 2019 (11:45PM) LONG GLUU for the long term, SHORT GLUU for the short term

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 08:55 PM PDT

    This is the second of many posts to keep track of my stock picks. I plan to post periodically so I can practice stock pitches in interviews. Please feel free to comment on my picks, as well as my rationale. I have provided full disclosure of my portfolio at the end of this post.

    LONG for the long term, SHORT for the short term:

    Glu Mobile (GLUU)

    https://glumobile.gcs-web.com/investor-relations

    Today's price $7.15 Today's movement -0.14% Market Cap (Yahoo Finance) $1.02B

    52 week high: $11.75 52 week low: $5.08

    Summary: Glu Mobile designs and publishes mobile games. It is known for games like Diner Dash, Kim Kardashian:Hollywood, Deer Hunter, Design Home, Covet Fashion, Tap Sports Baseball, and QuizUp. In November 2016, Glu promoted Nick Earl to CEO from President of Global Studios. Nick Earl set a 3-phase plan to drive profitability for the long term. Phase 1 was to increase profitability in its three "growth games": Design Home, Covet Fashion, and Tap Sports Baseball. Phase 1 was achieved in Q1 19 when the three growth games grew 30% year-over-year and contributed 78% to total bookings, up from 64% a year ago. (FYI: Analysts concentrate on bookings more than revenue in mobile apps. Bookings include all the cash paid for any virtual item, consumable or durable, and independently of whether those items have been used or not.) Phase 2 is to create new growth games and Glu is in the midst of this. It launched two potential growth games in Q2, WWE Universe and Diner DASH Adventures. Disney Socerer's Arena is set to launch in August and three more titles are set for 2020. Phase 3 is to strive for operating excellence and financial discipline. Glu achieved its first GAAP profitable quarter in Q1 19 since Q1 15.

    I recommend short Glu until it achieves two profitable quarters in a row. I believe Glu was overly optimistic in its FY 19 guidance after Q1 19 and needs to prove it can create other growth games. I believe in Glu's team, its strong balance sheet, and the possibility to be acquired by Zynga that I am long for the long term.

    Catalysts for Short in the Short term:

    1. Glu is overly optimistic with its bookings guidance.

    Glu beat its bookings guidance in Q1 19 by $2.8M and increased its FY19 guidance by $10M to $445-$455M. It also, expects Q2 19 to be its highest bookings quarter ever in company history at $100M-$102M. Glu stopped providing a guidance breakdown by game but Eric Ludwig (COO &CFO) said on the earnings call that the boost will come from its new titles, WWE Universe and Disney Socerer's Arena. Eric also mentioned, Design Home, Covet Fashion, and Kim Kardashian: Hollywood will have flat bookings from Q1 19 to Q2 19 because two game publishers started aggressive UA (user acquisition) campaigns and drove up CPI (cost per install). Glu decided to reduce its own UA spend to maintain profitability.

    I believe Glu is putting too much pressure on its new titles. WWE Universe has great ratings (Google Play Store 4/5 stars, Apple App Store 4.7/5 stars), but dig a little deeper in its most recent reviews and they are mixed. Users are complaining about the app crashing and pay to play being introduced too quickly into the game. I am worried about user retention and bookings for WWE Universe.

    https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.glu.wrestling&hl=en_US&showAllReviews=true

    https://apps.apple.com/au/app/wwe-universe/id1297055947

    2. Insider selling

    Tencent sold a little less than 25% of its stake in Glu on May 31st. Tencent now owns 14.5% of Glu. This is a soft catalyst but large insider selling always concerns me. In addition, I thought Tencent could have been a potential acquirer for Glu in the future. The recent sell off makes it less likely.

    https://www.pocketgamer.biz/news/70905/tencent-sells-56m-worth-of-glu-mobile-shares/

    Catalysts for Long in the Long Term:

    1. Glu's strong Executive Team and Board of Directors

    Aforementioned, Nick Earl is doing a great job getting Glu back to profitability. In addition, Darla Anderson, Pixar's Coco producer, joined the board of directors in March of this year. Disney licenses its mobile games to companies like Glu (aka Disney's Socerer's Arena). I believe Darla's connection and the potential success of Disney's Socerer's Arena can make Glu a larger player with Disney. Glu has a blend of licensed and royalty-free Glu IP (intellectual property) titles.

    Executive Team & Board of Directors

    https://www.glu.com/company/

    2. Strong Balance Sheet

    Glu has a healthy cash balance and its liabilities are manageable.

    See slide 12 from Glu's Q1 19 Earnings Call slide.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4260712-glu-mobile-inc-2019-q1-results-earnings-call-slides

    3. Possibility to be acquired by Zynga

    Zynga ($5.85B Market Cap from Yahoo Finance) entered into a deal to sell its San Francisco headquarters for $600M. This could be dry powder for Zynga to acquire a company like Glu (1.02B Market Cap from Yahoo Finance)

    https://www.zynga.com/blog/zynga-enters-into-sale-and-leaseback-agreements-with-beacon-capital-partners-for-san-francisco-headquarters-building/

    Links:

    Q1 2019 10-Q (Period ended 3.31.19)

    https://seekingalpha.com/filing/4484852

    Q1 2019 Earnings Call Transcript

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4260748-glu-mobile-inc-gluu-ceo-nick-earl-q1-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript

    (End of GLUU Stock Pitch)

    Other positions

    LONG:

    BREW, BZUN, PLAN, JCAP, EVBG

    HOLD:

    BL, CCRN, F, HT, KHC, OLP, PD, SHAK

    SHORT:

    DF, CBIO, COTY, CUTR, KFRC, M, VNDA, WORK

    Disclosure of Personal Portfolio:

    Own shares in BL, BREW, BZUN, EVBG, F, JCAP, PD, PLAN, SHAK

    Short via put option in WORK

    submitted by /u/PJHFStocks
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    Thoughts on XGRO, with cannabis stocks added

    Posted: 11 Jul 2019 04:08 AM PDT

    Im coming into some money via inheritance, and was wondering thoughts about my plan for allocation.

    Will be 50 percent XGRO, held in registered account, 25 percent APHA in TFSA, and 25 percent HMUS ETF in RRSP.

    I know weedstocks are risky, but I'm bullish on the U.S potential, and Aphria has a major ramp up underway not priced in. Tell me why I'm dumb :)

    submitted by /u/LordHypnos
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    Is the 4% rule now the 3% rule?

    Posted: 11 Jul 2019 03:23 AM PDT

    Jerry retired thirty years ago in 1989 and put his money in a mixture of two popular mutual funds. Vanguard Wellesley and Vanguard Wellington. It gave him about 50% total Stock and 50% total bond. He used the 4% rule which involved taking out 4% of his starting assets and adjusting it for inflation each year. On his death bed on July 2019, he looked at his Vanguard account and saw that his starting figure of one million dollars was now $8,208,598

    JUST THINK: He was told the 4% rule was too risky and he should go with 3% instead.

    His kids will enjoy the $8,208,598 but he should have taken out more each year and lived his life to the fullest?

    submitted by /u/KillingTime56
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    Who bought all the 10Y treasuries?

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 03:37 PM PDT

    In the past 8 months or so, the 10Y yield has gone from above 3% to about 2%.

    I think this means that lots of folks have been buying up treasuries (despite the fact that record fiscal deficits mean that issuance of new treasuries is high) to push down the yield. Right?

    (Back in Nov/Dec, surely the market plunge created a bit of flight to safety which first got the 10Y yield plunging... but it kept declining for months and months afterwards, indicating there is still tons of "excess" demand, despite markets recovering.)

    The money to buy all these treasuries has to come from somewhere, right? ITOT, IXUS, IEMG are all up since November. (A change in market cap doesn't necessarily imply a proportional change in money 'flow' though, so maybe money has been 'exiting' equities while the apparent bid/value of equities has been rising on lower volume, for example.)

    I can imagine the narrative that everyone in Europe is buying US treasuries because they pay so much more interest than (negative) bonds from EU countries... but is there any data that show this might be the case?

    Is it just leverage and credit? Banks are taking money from the future and pulling it into the present (in the form of new loans), and that money is winding up (directly or indirectly) in US treasuries?

    Something else?

    I just don't have any kind of suitable narrative that explains the last four months of 10Y yields dropping, and wondering if anyone else does.

    submitted by /u/brianmcn
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    Federal Reserve members saw a strengthening case for a rate cut, minutes of June meeting show

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 11:05 AM PDT

    When someone like Buffet says they are in cash right now, is that in a money market? T-Bills?

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 09:39 AM PDT

    Just curious what cash actually means.

    submitted by /u/infohawk
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    What the rich man does in the beginning the fool does in the end.

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 07:50 AM PDT

    After the financial crisis houses and stocks lost half of their value. People who bought into either has made a lot of money since then. However currently I've heard of several people who I work with and on the internet looking into real estate investing. Is the market oversaturated with buyers pushing the housing market back up to dangerous levels? Most economists and financial leaders believe we are now in the 8th inning of a nine inning game regarding the market cycle. (Ray Dalio and Howard Marks)

    With the S&P 500 at all time highs are any of you market timing and moving to a more conservative (bond heavy) portfolio?

    I'm not but the main reason why not is because theres also a lot of pessimism in the market which I think is healthy. Bulls don't die because of longevity, they die on exuberant optimism.

    Edit: It seems more people are optimistic than I thought from these responses.

    Edit 2. Someone pointed out that market highs are normal and fine, but high CAPE ratios, inverted yield curve, high student debt, high national debt to GDP are some indicators that, I think, shows that things may not be alright. High employment is also an indicator we are at the end of the cycle.

    submitted by /u/Brandon4454
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    Not sure if you all saw this or not, but this is the collective stock picks of r/investing a couple months back

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 04:00 PM PDT

    https://old.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/9kl1i4/here_it_is_the_rinvesting_underrated_stocks/

    personally i chose LPTX, SILK, AYX and another i cant remember that are all doing great

    AYX has done AMAZINGGGG

    so not a bad thing to look through even right now

    submitted by /u/rawrtherapy
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    Portfolio simulator like Firecalc but pre-retirement?

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 07:00 PM PDT

    I am looking for a portfolio simulator that would allow me to get an idea of the upper- and lower-bound of my inflation-adjusted portfolio by retirement by specifying simple allocations, annual contributions etc. Basically, one that uses historical performance data and my years to retirement to run simulations like FireCalc.

    I'm sure something like this must exist, but I can't seem to find it after googling and searching on here. Thanks.

    submitted by /u/rkp07
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    How to invest in the company that is not fully working yet?

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 09:39 PM PDT

    Few of my friends are born entrepreneurs, the have a pretty cool idea for a business and recently made a prototype of the product that are trying to figure out how to mass produce for as cheap as possible.

    They are trying to get as much funds as possible and of course they asked me if I would like to invest... but how do you invest in something like that that in so early stage that product is not even being sold yet?

    Let's say that I'm willing to give them my money - where do I start?

    I have come up with my request what I would like to get in the return for my investment - what could and should I ask for? to be a CEO :) ? or a % of the company?

    How to make a smart request - especially that they took some loans from the different lenders that I would not like to be responsible for?

    Are there any common plans of action in the situation like this that I could follow?

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/mrfinancecracker
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    Secular stagnation and the current investing environment

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 03:31 PM PDT

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiEz5_5rKvjAhX1dc0KHfg3Ag8QFjAAegQIABAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.advisorperspectives.com%2Fcommentaries%2F2017%2F03%2F27%2Fthe-deep-causes-of-secular-stagnation-and-the-rise-of-populism&usg=AOvVaw299BHQ1FbEMFmIbRXqRHpQ

    A 2017 article I just ran across by James Montier and Philip Pilkington (of GMO). The premise is that secular stagnation describes our current economy; further, that markets are currently priced for continuing secular stagnation; further that secular stagnation is the consequence of 70s-90s era neoliberal policies and could readily be reversed by policy actions. These actions would stimulate the economies of the advanced (G7) countries that implemented them but (by implication) would lead to changes in stock valuations.

    The article is readable, idea-dense, and loaded (but not overloaded) with data. Worth a read.

    Montier has a podcast today on Morningstar 'How Do I Get Paid for Owning This Asset?' that I am not in a position to listen to right now.

    submitted by /u/jonahsrevenge
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    Is there any way to see your Fidelity portfolio growth chart without the bumps from frequent deposits into it?

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 09:02 AM PDT

    Generally I see small dips and peaks in my growth, but generally an overall trend upwards, however the graph is based on the overall value in dollars of my investments, which through bi-monthly deposits is constantly increasing. Is there any way to view your growth charts, which would avoid including peaks from your investments, so you can actually see how its performing?

    submitted by /u/CommentToBeDeleted
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    Help with Eurodollar futures options...

    Posted: 10 Jul 2019 08:51 PM PDT

    So I've read more or less everything I can find and I'm hoping that someone with some experience can just confirm what I believe is correct, but can't quite believe:

    Price $98.50

    Assumed rate at expiry 1.5%

    Hypothetical actual rate at expiry 1.0%

    50 basis points

    50 x $25 = $1250

    All from 1x option at $98.50????

    Is this correct?

    Does anyone have any insight on how closely the LIBOR actually tracks the fed rate?

    And, I'm assuming you sell before the option expires or date of the underlying asset payment? How does selling in the money work?

    submitted by /u/Chigurh101
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