Value Investing Consolidated Water Co. (CWCO) Long Thesis |
- Consolidated Water Co. (CWCO) Long Thesis
- Guide to the market 2Q19
- Has anyone ever used a Monte Carlo analysis for portfolio construction?
- Old Value Line Investment Survey
- Saudi Aramco's Financials Secrets Revealed
| Consolidated Water Co. (CWCO) Long Thesis Posted: 02 Apr 2019 07:36 PM PDT Background: Consolidated Water Corporation (CWCO) is a seawater desalination and water distribution company. They operate in four main segments, Retail, Bulk, Services, and Manufacturing. Retail segment supplies water to end-users in Cayman Islands inn 2/3 highly populated areas given by government. Also has a desalination plant in Bali, Indonesia. The Bulk segment supplies water to gov owned distributors in Cayman Islands and Bahamas. The Services segment does desalination plant management and operating services and the Manufacturing segment manufactures & services water products from 51% equity in Aerex Industries in US. Thesis: My price target on Consolidated Water (CWCO) is $19.12, based on the following reasons: · 13.5% growth in the next 5 years and decreasing to 9.32% in the terminal year. This growth is organic and driven by their increase in operations in Mexico and in the United States · Market is expected to double by 2026 · No debt, $31m in cash which gives the company flexibility · Long term contracts that are not set to end in the next 10 years Concerns · Their EBIT margins are around 15%, which is half of the industry standard. · Bad acquisition strategy that turn a strong balance sheet into a poor one. However, given that their past acquisitions have gone well (Aerex Industries) so it is not a huge concern. Key Ratios/Statistics · $191m MC, $161 EV · ROIC = 5%, Cost of Capital = 7.38% · $31m cash, $1m in debt · 2.67% dividend Current Price: $12.75 My Price: $19.12 Upside: 49.95% Hopefully you found this thesis interesting. The last one I did generate a lot of good questions, so I hope this does the same as I feel that I have gotten a lot better at modeling. I welcome all questions/comments, I personally do not have much experience in this industry so if there's any red flags please point them out in the comments. Also, if anyone is interested in my model, I can send it to you. Thanks [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Apr 2019 08:05 AM PDT |
| Has anyone ever used a Monte Carlo analysis for portfolio construction? Posted: 02 Apr 2019 06:34 PM PDT I realize this a broad question, but I'm wondering if this type of analysis has any place in sizing positions in your portfolio. [link] [comments]  |
| Old Value Line Investment Survey Posted: 02 Apr 2019 01:08 PM PDT I'm trying to find copies of old Value Line investment surveys (print). I'm specifically interested in the single page reports with 10 years financials, description, etc. by company and industry. I know you can sign up for a subscription and get a year's worth of the current reports but I'm interested in older versions (pre-2010 if possible). I would have thought these would be available on Amazon, eBay, and used book stores in droves as updated versions are mailed out. Obviously I'm missing something because I can only find one lousy listing on eBay. [link] [comments]  |
| Saudi Aramco's Financials Secrets Revealed Posted: 02 Apr 2019 08:51 AM PDT |
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