Stock Market - How I Use Data to Analyze My Trading Performance |
- How I Use Data to Analyze My Trading Performance
- Ticker symbol TSLA
- Pot ETFs...
- Unusual Price Action, Options Swaps, and Insider Trading (Without Actually Trading)
- Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 29th, 2019
- Question for TOS users
- Is it common that brand new IPOs never double their initial starting price?
- Noob question Trading strategy when $$ <= 6,000
- If I buy a call, and then sell it. If that same buyer later decided to exercise am I responsible instead of the contract writer?
- Check this out. Daily returns.
| How I Use Data to Analyze My Trading Performance Posted: 28 Apr 2019 12:55 PM PDT Hey all. As a pretty active trader I thought people might find it useful to read about how I analyze my performance and use stats and data to improve my strategies. I apologize in advance for the formatting here but I'll try to make it as pretty as possible! If you wanna read the OP with quality meme pics and better formatting it's HERE along with a lot of other similar posts! Feel free to critique/discuss! Data Analysis and Strategy DevelopmentThe most important thing you can do as a developing trader is consistently review and analyze your trades.As a data-driven trader (and a data geek in general), I love data analysis in trading. When reviewing and analyzing your trades, your goal is to identify potential pitfalls, understand what you did wrong, understand what you did right, and single out any trends, ultimately allowing you to draw conclusions about how you can improve in the future. Like any other new skill such as playing an instrument or learning a new sport, learning to trade requires practice and a lot of trial and error. The only way to get better at it is to practice, collect data, analyze trends and mistakes, create rules to avoid mistakes in the future and then try again while following those rules. I do this occasionally, especially if I feel like my trading is getting sloppy. Usually in these situations I've been making silly mistakes like clicking buy when I mean to click sell, buying/selling the wrong stock due to a typo or just not changing the ticker in the right window, chasing entries and being greedy on exits. These types of things usually indicate that I'm stressed out and need to take a break and get my head on straight before I continue. When performing this type of analysis there are a few key questions you should be trying to answer:
At times in my trading career I've found myself unable to answer these questions, either because I've lost my way or because I just haven't analyzed my trading in a while. Perhaps I'm using a strategy that worked in the past but now the nature of the market has changed and I've failed to adapt my strategy to the new conditions. I usually have a plan for each specific trade I take – sometimes even multiple plans – but that doesn't mean I haven't unknowingly been creating awesome plans for setups that, statistically speaking, I'm not very good at trading. Sometimes it's easy to lose sight of what you're good at when trading becomes monotonous because you just wake up and do the same thing every day with a systematic method. During these times, I often don't know exactly what's going on so I rely on data to figure it out. To demonstrate, I'm going to use one such strategy analysis session from a few years ago as an example: To cure my trading blues, I took several months worth of trades and went on a quest to find trends and correlations, then looked at the statistics surrounding which setups I was trading and how they were working. I found some interesting stuff which explained why I felt my trading had been sub-par. I'm going to share that here with the hope that it will help you understand what you should be looking for as you develop as a trader and will assist you in interpreting the information you have available to you. I'll start by talking about what my process was for the analysis and then get into the results: Step One:My first task was to take several months of trade data and upload it to Tradervue which is an awesome service for analyzing and creating reports with trading data. I then started to go through some of the basic reports such as volume traded (i.e. my own sizing), instrument volume (the stock's average volume), performance by day of the week and hour of the day, performance by SPY movement and SPY gap, and overall win/loss ratio. This gave me a starting point. Right off the bat I noticed that I had been under-performing on Thursdays and Fridays and also under-performing on instruments that trade less than 500,000 shares on an average day. I also noticed that I had a near 90% win rate on Wednesdays and Mondays were very high also. This indicated that maybe I was getting burned out as I go through the week and also that a lot of losses were coming from low volume stocks. Then I took it a step further and looked at a sample of loss days, a sample of win days, and ten weeks of daily data to decide whether the losses on Thursday and Friday were all from one or two days or if it was actually a trend. I discovered that out of ten random trading weeks I chose, I only ended Fridays green 2/10 times, and Thursday only 3/10 times! In contrast, I was killing it on Mondays and Wednesdays, and Tuesdays were a mix and match of wins/losses. This told me that I should be more aggressive at the beginning of the week and taper off and just chill out toward the end of the week because it seemed like I was getting burned out or just trading out of boredom. With the sample of random win and loss days I also wanted to see whether they started with wins or losses. I pulled 23 random winning days and 25 random losing days and looked at the first trade on each of those days. I discovered that 19 out of 23 winning days started with a winning trade, and also that 18 out of 25 losing days started either with a losing trade or a flat trade. This told me I was having some difficulty coming back from a loss in the morning. Step Two:Now that I knew most of my winning days started with a win, I wanted to analyze the four days that started with a loss and ended up green overall. My goal was to identify why I was able to recover on those four days. I learned that all four of those days that I ended green I started either with a very small loss or a flat trade. I ran a similar analysis on the 7 losing days that started with a win but turned red by the end of the day. 6 out of 7 of those days were either a Thursday or a Friday, and all 7 of them started with a very small winning trade. So, it seemed that if I started with a win that was "too small", I had a high likelihood of turning it into an overall losing day by the end of the day, especially if it was a Thursday or Friday. Likewise, if I began the day with a small loss, there was a good chance I'd be able to recover from it and turn the day green overall. The pattern was crystal clear: basically if I started the day with only a small win, it felt like I needed more, so I'd push and trade weak setups rather than letting a good trade come to me. If I began the day with a small loss, then it didn't seem to matter to me, and I'd usually be able to recover from it. Step Three:Finally, I wanted to get to the questions mentioned at the beginning of this post: Did my entries and exits make sense? What was my strongest type of trade, and where was I failing the most? To accomplish this I arranged my trades first by biggest loss and then by biggest gain. I opened every single trade in order and looked at the charts to see which setup I was trading on each one. To my astonishment, many of my biggest losses didn't even have a setup! I was trading them strictly based on a big intraday volume push, or anticipating something I had minimal data for, like trying to short weakness, buy strength, or short the front side of a parabolic move. These types of trades are very tricky for all traders because you really have no defined risk and you need to enter the trade with a smaller size anticipating that the trade will most likely go against you at first and you'll have to average into it. I'm pretty good at that, generally speaking, but I was getting sloppy on my entries and the types of stocks I traded these setups on. Another way of looking at it is that I was trading the right setups on the wrong stocks or that I didn't have specific criteria defined for the setups even though I felt like I did in my head. I also discovered that my biggest gains came on only a few types of trades and during very specific times of the day. Using all this analysis, I was able to refine many of my rules and get my trading back on track. Here are some examples of the rules that this analysis allowed me to come up with and some information on where my best and worst trades came from. I still follow many of these rules today! Rules (these apply to day trades only):
My best trades occurred in the following situations:
My worst trades occurred in the following situations:
Remember, the goal of all this analysis is to review your performance and identify areas of improvement, which can provide you with a more solid system of rules that will both cut down on taking trades that aren't worth the risk and also increase your win percentage drastically. This is an important part of developing as a trader and something that you absolutely must do if you want to be successful in the long term. Until next time, happy trading! [link] [comments]  | ||
| Posted: 28 Apr 2019 02:06 PM PDT Tesla is now at a year low by 15%. Investors are disappointed by earnings and losing faith in elon musk's ability to keep his promises. I see this as a great buying opportunity, as demand for tesla cars appear higher than ever. Monthly visits on tesla's website are going up from 11 million from Jan 19-feb 19 to 21.7 million from February to march. (Vstat chrome extension) Tesla is still the leading electric car maker and is expanding the software of the cars rapidly. The robotaxi program looks like it could make tesla a lot of money. People will use the robotaxi system as an excuse to buy a tesla when it rolls out. (People buy because of emotion and justify with logic) So I see the robotaxi leading to more tesla sales and cash flow generation from commissions to tesla. This being said, I do agree with most people who say the robotaxi program will likely be delayed and it'll be hard to get the government to allow this. What do you guys think of tesla's current position? [link] [comments]  | ||
| Posted: 28 Apr 2019 10:16 AM PDT I have been wanting to get some exposure on pot and given the inherent risks associated with the industry I was thinking of buying an ETF to reduce specific equity risk. I have the Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index Etf on my radar. I would appreciate thoughts on: (1) Whether an ETF is indeed the right strategy; and (2) If yes, whether the above mentioned ETF is the correct choice. [link] [comments]  | ||
| Unusual Price Action, Options Swaps, and Insider Trading (Without Actually Trading) Posted: 28 Apr 2019 05:30 AM PDT Take a look at NFEC's option history (changed ticker to BIMI recently, company name is NF Energy Savings Corp, a China stock) . You can see that CIBC World Markets owned 5 millions call options in their 3rd quarter 13-F. There is only 8 million shares available and more than 1/2 is owned by the insiders. The stock went up 600% on no news or developments. I suspect the insiders loaned the stock to a non affiliate, who then engaged in some kind of derivative swap with CIBC to somehow profit on its increase without actually delivering the stock to CIBC. The 5 million call options also had no strike price. Out of the dozens of options CIBC had in their portfolio, NFEC was the only one without a strike. In the area of the report where there should be a price, there is just a question mark. I think I've figured out what happened. CIBC reports owning call options, but I think this is because there was an option swap agreement. On the date of the agreement, the insider (or an affiliate of the insider) bought put options, and CIBC went short. In order to hedge the short sale, CIBC purchased a call option from the insider to net any potential increase in the price. The insider intended to short, so when the price declined, they could (theoretically) sell the stock to CIBC then buy it back immediately and profit off the difference. To avoid actually trading the stock (so they don't violate insider trading laws), CIBC performs the trade, so when the price fell, CIBC just covers the short then gives the insider the profit after subtracting the strike premium the insider pays for the option. This is all just speculation. It just seems very strange that CIBC World Markets owned 5 million NF Energy Call options between 6/30/18 and 12/30/18. The price fluctuations were very unusual considering there were no material events. Just take a look at their company website. It looks like something made by a 5th grader [link] [comments]  | ||
| Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 29th, 2019 Posted: 28 Apr 2019 10:20 AM PDT
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| Posted: 28 Apr 2019 06:06 PM PDT How do you all go about plotting support and resistants on the platform? Things are so compressed together on it that it makes plotting S&R extremely hard if not impossible. Is their something I'm missing? [link] [comments]  | ||
| Is it common that brand new IPOs never double their initial starting price? Posted: 28 Apr 2019 05:26 PM PDT There is a lot of instability it seems when IPOs launch and after years I know the price can fall much lower and stay that way indefinitely. But it seems that almost ANY popular stock at the very very least makes 50% at least once. For example NIO is at like 4$. When it's IPO launched within the first day I think it went up and down like 200%. Now there's a chance that it will never go back up to that or even back up to the $5.30 it started at. I'm asking this because I have been watching the trends in popular culture and right now BEYOND is exceptionally trendy and going public in a few weeks. My strategy is this. I can't day trade I lack the knowledge. Even long haul trades I lack the understanding. But it seems that if a stock is: Popular Well Known Worth a lot That at the very least it will at one point gain at least 50%. So I wish to know that if I dump let's say $8,000 into beyond IPO upon release and set it to sell once it goes up 40% and never trade with it again (because I'm not skilled) is this a relatively "safe" strategy? [link] [comments]  | ||
| Noob question Trading strategy when $$ <= 6,000 Posted: 28 Apr 2019 11:11 AM PDT Getting into trading and I still have more than a lot to learn but I have a decent idea of the concepts now. I picked up the Robinhood app and bought a share of Disney and a couple of stocks in the cloud computing sector because that's what I do for work and know a lot about the technology sector. Right now I have about 6k in savings I want to start investing but I'm not quite sure where to start as I've come across so many different strategies. I know I need to diversify my portfolio as I build it, but I was curious if there Is there a particular strategy you would recommend for someone that's looking to increase their portfolio semi-aggressively that is working with a small initial investment. [link] [comments]  | ||
| Posted: 28 Apr 2019 01:29 PM PDT Just to clear it up. I am talking about buying a call and then later on selling it, to a person who exercises it. [link] [comments]  | ||
| Check this out. Daily returns. Posted: 28 Apr 2019 01:52 PM PDT |
![[link]](https://i.redd.it/teocl64wg1v21.png){kind=link}
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