Hey what's happening r/StockMarket! Good morning and happy Sunday to all of you on this subreddit. I hope everyone made out pretty nicely in the market last week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 8th, 2019.
Key data could end or defend recession fears as stocks notch best quarter in a decade - (Source)
The worst earnings season in nearly three years is about to begin, but stock strategists say the market should be able to look right past declining profits and continue to reach for all-time highs, as long as trade talks between the U.S. and China continue to show progress.
Stocks were higher in the past week, on the prospect that the trade talks would ultimately lead to a deal that could end punitive tariffs and boost earnings growth. The S&P 500 was up 2% for the week, at 2,892 and is just about 1.6% from its all-time high of 2,940, reached in September.
Among the first major companies to report are J.P. Morgan Chaseand Wells Fargo, both on Friday. In addition to earnings, investors will be watching Wednesday for minutes from the last Fed meeting; CPI inflation data also on Wednesday; and any headlines on trade or the U.K.'s "Brexit" from the European Union.
As for earnings, Refinitiv expects a 2.2% decline in first-quarter profits for the S&P 500 companies, but those lower results are expected to be the trough. Earnings growth is projected to rebound to 2.8% in the second quarter and by as much as 9% in the fourth quarter. The first-quarter decline would be the first negative earnings period since the second quarter of 2016.
"The second, third and fourth quarter will show a rebound.That's supportive of higher equity prices," said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. "I was thinking I'd like to see a record for the whole year, and it looks like we might do better than that."
'Picture much brighter' Keon said there are risks, including whether there really is a trade deal with China over the next couple of weeks and whether China's economy is really bottoming. "Is the success of China's stimulus gong to to continue and spread to other countries? To me, the picture is much brighter than it was a couple months ago," he said.
Strategists said any number of factors could be the catalyst to push stocks to records, including earnings season, if companies beat lowered guidance and their outlooks are good. Stocks could also ride higher on a better outlook for the U.S. economy, after a batch of better data including Friday's March jobs report.
"I think maybe we end up getting to a new high sometime early in the second quarter, and then maybe we do some sideways moving in that 'sell in May' period," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. "I think we confirm that 10th anniversary of this bull market by hitting a new all-time high. Then we digest some of those gains and move sideways for a bit and let some of those earnings catch up, and then maybe there's a year-end advance."
Also in the week ahead, investors are watching for the minutes from the Fed's last meeting, scheduled to be released Wednesday afternoon. At that meeting, the Fed released revised forecasts, with no rate hikes now expected in 2019 and a slower growth outlook. The minutes should also show what Fed officials were considering when they decided to end the program to roll down their balance sheet, and bond traders are looking for clues on which type of Treasurys the Fed will hold in its balance sheet.
On the data front, there are CPI consumer inflation data Wednesday and producer price inflation on Thursday. Both of these indexes should be closely watched since wage gains were muted in Friday's March jobs report, and strategists said they see no sign of inflation on the horizon. The Fed also sees below-trend inflation, so any unexpected change would be important.
The U.K.'s effort to leave the European Union will continue to make headlines in the week ahead. The Council of the European Union meets Wednesday, and will consider the U.K.'s request to extend the Brexit deadline, originally this coming Friday.
"It could go in any number of directions. The thing we've been telling people is if it's a messy, hard Brexit, the big difference between now and three years ago is you'd get a big chunk of that safe haven flow into U.S. dollars," said Michael Schumacher, director, rate strategy at Wells Fargo. Schumacher said investors would be more inclined to move into the short end of the Treasury curve, rather than into German bunds, which have negative yields.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
Major Indices for this past week:
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
Big First Quarter Gains Undoubtedly Bullish
Well the big gains of Q1 are in the books and after the nastiness in Q4 it's reassuring to see the "Sweet Spot" of the 4-Year Presidential Election Cycle returning to form and delivering solid gains. The Sweet Spot of the 4-Year Cycle runs from Q4 of the Midterm Election Year through Q2 of the Pre-Election Year for with an average gain of 21.1% for the S&P 500 over the 3-quarter span. The S&P 500 gained 13.1% in 2019 Q1, but it lost 14.0% in 2018 Q4 and is still down -2.7% for the Sweet Spot so far.
But, nevertheless, this type of gain for the S&P 500 in Q1 is undoubtedly bullish. The S&P 500's gain for 2019 Q1 is the 26th best quarterly gain for the index since 1930, 7thbest Q1 since 1949, largest Q1 gain since 1998 and the top quarterly gain since September 2009.
As illustrated in the accompanying table the 44 prior times that the S&P 500 was positive in Q1 since 1949 resulted in 40 full-year gains and 4 losses for an average gain of 16.2% and gains for the remaining 9 months of the year 38 times out of 44 year with an average gain of 8.6%. The 18 years with Q1 gains between 5.5% and 13.9% are all followed by full-year gains with the only blemish in geopolitically charged 1956.
The big black mark came from Black Monday 1987. 1956 was mired by the Hungarian Revolution and the Soviet invasion as well as the Suez Crisis, the Second Arab-Israeli War. 2011 was hindered by the international sovereign debt crisis, the U.S. debt-ceiling crisis and the resulting downgrade of U.S. credit rating. The dotcom bubble popped in the year 2000. Tepid growth and earnings declines created a mini bear in 2015 that bottomed in February 2016. And finally, the 1980-1982 double-dip recessions put U.S. stocks in abear market throughout 1981 that ended in August 1982.
The Bespoke Report -- Second Quarter Chart Checkup
Following big market moves like we have seen in the last six months, a number of market characteristics tend to change as some new leadership groups emerge and others fall by the wayside. In order to help get a better idea of what sectors and groups have been driving the market, in this week's Bespoke Report, we are providing a 'chart checkup' of all the S&P 500 Industries as well as providing updates to some key market and economic charts that we feel are important to highlight.
It was a banner week for US equities and a great encore to a strong first quarter. With the exception of the Dow (DIA), every major index ETF was up over 2%. Value outperformed growth across all three market caps, but the margin between the two was pretty narrow. Defensive sectors like Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) actually saw modest declines this week, while Materials (XLB), Financials (XLF), Communication Services (XLC), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) all rallied over 3%. In international markets, China (ASHR) surged over 7%, while Mexico (EWW) bounced over 5%. Australia (EWA) was the only country up less than 1%. Fixed income ETFs saw modest declines across the board.
Jobs Growth Slows, But Only A Little Bit
Today's job numbers beat expectations, with 196,000 jobs added and a small positive revision to the prior two months. On a rolling 3 month average, job creation fell to the lowest level in over a year, but only marginally. While jobs growth is still solid, it has cooled a bit. That isn't anything to worry about, but it is something to keep an eye on.
Wage growth picked up dramatically last year, with 2016-2018's sideways movement in the year-over-year change of average wages paid surging. Over the last few months that growth has once again been moving sideways, albeit at a much higher rate of growth than we've seen for almost all of the current economic expansion.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for April 5th, 2019
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4.7.19
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
- $DAL
- $JPM
- $RAD
- $WFC
- $BBBY
- $FAST
- $NC
- $MSM
- $SJR
- $INFY
- $FRC
- $WDFC
- $APOG
- $LNN
- $PSMT
- $SOL
- $SLP
- $CAAP
- $LEGH
- $SEAC
- $TRNX
Here are the most notable earnings releases for the trading week beginning April 8th, 2019.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 4.8.19 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Monday 4.8.19 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Tuesday 4.9.19 Before Market Open:
Tuesday 4.9.19 After Market Close:
Wednesday 4.10.19 Before Market Open:
Wednesday 4.10.19 After Market Close:
Thursday 4.11.19 Before Market Open:
Thursday 4.11.19 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Friday 4.12.19 Before Market Open:
Friday 4.12.19 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Delta Air Lines, Inc. $57.73
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, April 10, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.91 per share on revenue of $10.37 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.94 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.70 to $0.90 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 22.97% with revenue increasing by 4.03%. Short interest has decreased by 22.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.2% above its 200 day moving average of $52.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,328 contracts of the $57.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. $105.31
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Friday, April 12, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.32 per share on revenue of $28.07 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.39 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.11% with revenue decreasing by 13.07%. Short interest has decreased by 15.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.9% below its 200 day moving average of $107.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, March 26, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,696 contracts of the $100.00 call expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.3% move in recent quarters.
Rite Aid Corp. $0.58
Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, April 11, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $5.56 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 200.00% with revenue increasing by 3.07%. Short interest has increased by 31.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 33.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 66.6% below its 200 day moving average of $1.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 2, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,339 contracts of the $0.50 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. The stock has averaged a 4.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Wells Fargo & Co. $48.78
Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Friday, April 12, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.08 per share on revenue of $20.87 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3.57% with revenue decreasing by 16.66%. Short interest has decreased by 19.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.2% below its 200 day moving average of $53.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 2, 2019 there was some notable buying of 6,427 contracts of the $46.00 put expiring on Friday, April 12, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.8% move in recent quarters.
Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. $18.35
Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. (BBBY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, April 10, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.11 per share on revenue of $3.33 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 29% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 25.00% with revenue decreasing by 10.39%. Short interest has increased by 41.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 38.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.0% above its 200 day moving average of $15.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, March 26, 2019 there was some notable buying of 28,089 contracts of the $15.00 put expiring on Friday, May 17, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 12.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.0% move in recent quarters.
Fastenal Co. $66.67
Fastenal Co. (FAST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Thursday, April 11, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $1.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.20% with revenue increasing by 9.63%. Short interest has decreased by 0.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.9% above its 200 day moving average of $57.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, March 28, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,362 contracts of the $62.50 put expiring on Friday, May 17, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.0% move in recent quarters.
PNC Bank $127.91
PNC Bank (PNC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Friday, April 12, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.59 per share on revenue of $4.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.62 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 36% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.58% with revenue decreasing by 8.95%. Short interest has decreased by 14.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.2% below its 200 day moving average of $130.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,696 contracts of the $125.00 put expiring on Friday, April 12, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.0% move in recent quarters.
MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc. $85.42
MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc. (MSM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, April 10, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.26 per share on revenue of $830.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.28 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 46% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.22 to $1.28 per share on revenue of $817.00 million to $833.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.97% with revenue increasing by 8.04%. Short interest has increased by 19.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.8% above its 200 day moving average of $83.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.7% move in recent quarters.
Shaw Communications Inc. $20.85
Shaw Communications Inc. (SJR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, April 9, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.24 per share on revenue of $1.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 38% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue decreasing by 4.31%. Short interest has decreased by 16.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.1% above its 200 day moving average of $19.85. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,021 contracts of the $20.00 put and 716 contracts of the $22.50 call expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.2% move in recent quarters.
Infosys Technologies Ltd. $11.32
Infosys Technologies Ltd. (INFY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Friday, April 12, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.13 per share on revenue of $3.04 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.14 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 50.00% with revenue increasing by 8.38%. Short interest has decreased by 12.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $10.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, March 22, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,406 contracts of the $11.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week ahead?
Have a fantastic Sunday and a great trading week ahead to everyone here on r/StockMarket!
![[link]](https://i.redd.it/n9xypz0pgtq21.png){kind=link}
No comments:
Post a Comment