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    Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here Investing

    April 05, 2019

    Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here Investing

    Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 05:16 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Investing in REITs as an alternative to rental properties.

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 07:30 PM PDT

    Hey everyone, I'm interested in what you all have to say about this. I have just recently started researching REITs and have been wondering if they are a good alternative to investing directly in rental properties. What are your thoughts?

    submitted by /u/joline1120
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    Dividend Investing - too good to be true?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 03:42 PM PDT

    I'm currently in a position to put about 10k per month towards investments. In 2021 it'll be 14k. I'm 32.

    My question is about dividend investing and if it's too good to be true. According to the website below with the default conservative numbers, if i save about 13k a month for 15yrs with dividend reinvestment, I'll have about 4.7 million with 150k/yr dividends.

    What's the catch? And if you assume yield rates higher than 3.2, it explodes to 500k a yr, etc.

    Can it be this simple to break into the millions? Im talking 10s of millions. What am i not seeing?

    https://www.investopedia.com/calculator/dvcal.aspx

    submitted by /u/travelingscribe
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    Whos your favorite person you get stock advice from?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 06:51 PM PDT

    It would be cool if I could get advice from someone wether it be from email, Instagram etc. I want to invest long term, so someone that isn't a penny stock trader.

    And before one of you comments this. No, I'm not going to buy whatever stocks they tell me to. I just was some suggestions/advice.

    Thanks in advance

    submitted by /u/DrMemeStealer
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    Why is Boeing up today?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 08:04 AM PDT

    Hi,

    I'm not an investor in Boeing, but today there are lots of reports about the recent crash which seem to pin the blame firmly on Boeing, but the stock price is up - which is not what I expected to see!

    What do you all think?

    Thank you for any thoughts!

    submitted by /u/JoshSummers
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    4/4/2019 Macy's 2018 10-K Recap

    Posted: 05 Apr 2019 03:14 AM PDT

    Macy filed its latest 10-K filings for 2018 on 4/3/2019. Below is a quick recap on things we felt important to review.

    ​

    Business Analysis Recap

    • Top things to be aware - Private label and trademarks impacts, competition, executive changes
    • The agreements for American Rag, Greg Norman, Material Girl, and Thalia Sodi will expire at the end of the year.
    • Paula A. Price assumed the role of CFO since July 2018. Jeff Gennette is now Chairman of the board. The retirement of Karen M. Hoguet, who is the prior CFO at Macy.

    Business Risk Factors Recap

    • Macy highlighted changes in consumer shopping preferences and possible economic impacts on consumer discretionary spending as things that could negatively impact their business. It attributed these to psychological and economic effects which we felt could be an early indication of further deterioration of their business.
    • Macy further highlighted competition from e-business and its dependence on brick and mortar stores to remain relevant.
    • Macy added verbiage in its most recent 10-K that inventory may require to be sold at a significant discount and they may not be able to seel the inventory at all.
    • An increase in data security coverage and supply chain and third parties risk coverage.
    submitted by /u/liangchen1992b
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    AMD is looking easily overvalued, can any bulls justify its price besides the google Stadia project.

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 06:52 PM PDT

    PSA: three prominent investment advice sites which are a total sham

    Posted: 05 Apr 2019 03:18 AM PDT

    I woke up today and I'm feeling philanthropic and goodcitizenish

    Zach's:

    They update their rating after the stock has popped or plummeted. By the time their analysts decide to change the rating, it is either entering correction territory or still in downtrend. I have caught them in the in between status and it is hilarious what they do

    Seeking Alpha:

    Pumpers and Dumpers pretending to be analysts. There is so much misinformation on this website. I stopped reading it during the rare earth metals craze in 2009. I responded rather cheekily that rare earth metals are neither rare, nor earthy nor are they metals. Like the Holy Roman Empire joke. A week later, a poser stole my idea and wrote the rare earth metal joke as his. I mean, that is how bad they are.

    Forbes:

    This site is a joke. Not even worth a write up. I follow a ridiculous permabear on Twitter just because he is so idiotic and he is a Forbes contributor and his articles trend on many finance sites. He's been calling for a crash since 2008.

    submitted by /u/stepmill_jack
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    Are there any online investing courses out there?

    Posted: 05 Apr 2019 03:35 AM PDT

    Im looking for a value investing course, something that teaches me strategies for finding good companies. Companies someone like Warren Buffett would invest in. Also any courses on calculating Intrinsic value.

    submitted by /u/Southern_Radish
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    Jim Simons' EV battery venture: does anybody know what the name of the company is and how it's been going?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 06:00 AM PDT

    Simons spoke about it back in 2012 in an interview with Cheeger (he was his student back when Simons was still in math), mentioning a company he backed which was spun off out of BrokeHaven Labs back in the 90s.

    Lithium-Sulfur batteries to be precise.

    The complete interview. Chapter 30 is called "Car Battery Venture"

    He also mentioned a grant by the Department of Energy and a deal with a big German chemical company in 2012.

    submitted by /u/AjaxFC1900
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    Constellation Brands Q4 2019 Earnings Breakdown

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 05:53 AM PDT

    • Beer Business Delivers Double-Digit Net Sales and Operating Income Growth for FY19
    • Company Generates Record Operating Cash Flow
    • Signs Agreement to Sell Portion of Wine & Spirits Business to E. & J. Gallo Winery
    • Achieves fiscal 2019 reported basis EPS of $17.57 and comparable basis EPS of $9.28, an increase of 53% and 7%, respectively
    • Generates record operating cash flow of more than $2.2 billion and $1.4 billion of free cash flow for fiscal 2019
    • Fiscal 2020 outlook, expects reported basis EPS of $8.47 - $8.77 and comparable basis EPS of $8.50 - $8.80
    • Projects fiscal 2020 operating cash flow target of approximately $2 billion and free cash flow projection of $1.1 - $1.2 billion
    • Repurchases 2.4 million shares of common stock for $504 million for fiscal 2019
    • Declares quarterly cash dividend of $0.75 per share Class A and $0.68 per share Class B common stock
    • Held gross margin of 54.4% in a rising cost environment
    • Operating margin decreased slightly to 39.3%, as favorable pricing was more than offset by higher marketing and transportation costs
    • Marketing as a percent of net sales increased 30 bps to 9.3% driven primarily by marketing initiatives
    • Q4 2019: Operating margin increased 60 basis points to 27.7%, from lower SG&A and favorable price were partially offset by higher COGS.
    • FY 2019: Shipment volume exceeded depletions volume, which is expected to reverse in first quarter fiscal 2020.
    • Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.75 per share of Class A Common Stock and $0.68 per share of Class B Stock
    • 2020 Outlook: Beer: net sales and operating income growth 7 - 9%
    • 2020 Outlook: Wine and Spirits: net sales decline 25 - 30% and operating income decline 30 - 35%
    • 2020 Outlook: Operating cash flow: $1.9 - $2.1 billion
    • 2020 Outlook: Free cash flow: $1.1 - $1.2 billion
    • 2020 Outlook: Tax rate: approximately 17%
    submitted by /u/hyousef333
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    Fallen Angel ETF

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 11:52 AM PDT

    Any opinions on fallen angel funds? I bought a few hundred shares of ANGL, as it looks like it might be a decent choice.

    submitted by /u/2FlagsFarm
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    hold or sell AABA?

    Posted: 05 Apr 2019 12:31 AM PDT

    Sorry for the n00b question but I have a small position in AABA from Yahoo RSUs that converted a while back. Should I hold or sell?

    submitted by /u/iambillybaroo
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    VTSAX vs VITAX

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 08:12 AM PDT

    I noticed that nobody seems to have asked this here before so I figured I would. What are the thoughts on VTSAX vs VITAX for long term holdings? Is it likely that tech will continue to dominate the stock market 10-30 years into the future?

    I realize the expense ratio is slightly higher on VITAX vs VTSAX, 0.10% vs 0.04%, but the general trend is that it returns 4% more than VTSAX annually, based on the last decade and nearly 5% since they were both created. I would assume that makes up for the difference in expense ratios, but I'd like to hear other people's thoughts on this.

    The way I look at it is that since the top holdings of VTSAX are mostly tech companies anyways. If tech, and in return VITAX, suddenly went down, so would VTSAX. The only difference being that VTSAX would likely recover faster since it would just self cleanse the tech stocks and that VITAX may never recover if tech never recovers. They both seem to generally track the market only with VITAX noticeably higher. Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/iTopKiller
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    Where is the cash flow statement for kraft heinz?

    Posted: 05 Apr 2019 12:11 AM PDT

    How to track portfolio performance in a professional way?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 08:23 PM PDT

    Hi folks,

    So...I´m facing this issue that I don´t know how to solve.

    I´m going to manage someone else´s portfolio.

    ​

    This person is a friend of mine, but I want to keep things as clear and objective as possible.

    ​

    Half of his portfolio is going to be in fixed income. For this part, I´m not going to charge him. I´m just going to give my best advice, but as a friend.

    ​

    The other half is going to be actively managed by me.
    I´m not doing just buy & hold. I plan to use options...mostly selling covered calls.

    ​

    The issue that I have is that this person might add more money to the account and also, the coupons from the fixed income might end up being more powder for the actively traded strategy.

    Would you have a good tool to recommend to track the yield of the portfolio on a time adjusted basis?

    Also, it´s pretty easy to evaluate the performance of a buy and hold strategy, but is there any tool to easily evaluate the performance of options strategies?

    ​

    So far I have managed my own portfolio, but I haven´t been consistent measuring my alpha.

    ​

    Moreover, what would you consider a fair fee?
    My main concern is how to properly measure my performance considering that new cash can be added.

    I´d really appreciate your help and opinions.

    ​

    I know that some of you might feel that if I don´t know this stuff, my friend is in danger, but I can tell you that my strategies are pretty defensive....mostly buying good value and selling calls to increase the performance at the expense of some upside.

    ​

    Anyway....thanks :)

    ​

    ​

    ​

    ​

    submitted by /u/JohnVincentMoon
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    Investing in Equity Crowdfunding

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 11:31 PM PDT

    Is equity crowdfunding worth investing? What is the area to consider when investing in equity crowdfunding project?

    submitted by /u/MondayBlueBlue
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    What happens if m1 finance gets bought by private equity?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 07:43 AM PDT

    I'm really digging M1 finance, but I have a concern. What happens if they sell out to a bigger player, or worse, sell out to a terrible private equity firm? I imagine they'll ruin everything, jack up fees, etc, and I'll have to move my money (probably at an inopportune time, incurring losses, etc).

    Does anyone know if there are any legal guarantees that protect money that is invested through firms like m1? And in the worst case (someone like Idera buys M1), would it be possible to somehow move the stocks that I own out of m1 without having to sell them?

    Note: I've opened a similar question with M1 support, and I'll update this thread with their answers, but I'm curious to hear the perspective of folks outside of M1.

    submitted by /u/ferociousturtle
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    Capital gains and dividends question

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 02:05 PM PDT

    How do cap gains and dividends work in mutual funds? I'm new to investing and retired (late 40s, with 7 figures all in Vanguard funds). Was trying to figure out how distribution works for living expenses. Have money in an IRA that I'm not touching until RMD, then about 60% of remaining money in inherited IRA (I'm a widow and I can take out RMD now if I elect to do so) and the rest in cash and brokerage account (VTSAX and VTIAX). Asset allocation is roughly 30% bonds, rest in domestic and international funds.

    Yesterday I decided to calculate cap gains and dividends for the funds out of curiosity, and I was getting about $50k per million. This is way more than enough to live on. Does this mean I don't have to sell any holdings at all? How will this amount change with a market downturn? If nothing else changes can I just rely on cap gains and dividends for expenses? Am I overlooking something? The value of the holdings is more than when I originally started, more than two years ago, even with the cap gains/div distributions.

    Thanks, and sorry for the stupid question.

    submitted by /u/borborygmess
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    Thoughts on Brexit and the political situation.

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 08:47 AM PDT

    I've been holding cash for a few months in preparation for more market volatility related to brexit and American political announcements. Brexit keeps getting pushed back and back and I'm still holding cash as the market rises.

    At this point, do we think brexit is priced into the market? What are you all doing with your spare cash at this point? I'm tempted to go all in with VOO or some other index, but scared. Please advise.

    submitted by /u/Finalplague01
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    Can you lose money in a money market account?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 10:07 PM PDT

    I have my first real job and opened a savings account at a credit union. In the brochure I was reading about a money market account. It pays a higher interest rate than a savings account. I will not be touching the money. Every other check will be going into my account. So my question is can you lose money in a money market account? I don't want to open a account for 3k and the next month it's down to 2800.

    submitted by /u/deircr33
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    4/4/2019 - TJX 10K 2018 Recap

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 08:40 AM PDT

    Recap Risk Factors:

    • Noticable new veribage around business digital transformation, consumer shopping behavior changes, and threats from pure e-commerce player
    • Differ from 2017 and 2016, where logistic execution, expansion, and competing with traditional retailer dominates; in 2018, size, operation complexity, technology and the importance of information sharing and data security, and staff trainings were key topics discussed.
    • Noticable new mentioning of supply chain illeffected by climate changes, trade restrictions with Asia and brexit discussions.

    Recap Footnotes:

    • Changes to revenue recognition as TJX has adopted ASC 606 on 2/4/2018. Resulted in $59 million increases in retained earnings. Most of the value are unredeemed rewards certificates. Also online shares revenue are recognied at point of shipping rather than receipt. Some expenses are shifted from reduction of revenue to SG&A. Details on income classifications changes can be found in our Footnotes 10-K cliffnotes.
    • In 2018 10-K, TJX has added that future adoption of new accounting standards will result in changes to build-to-suit leases. Its unclear what those changes would be at this point.
    • The $500 million revolving credit facility scheduled to mature on March 20121 is extended to March 2022.
    • US Treasury supplmented regulations on 2017 Tax Act will impact TJX filing positions and TJX will record any impacts as a discrete event in the period that the guidance is finalized.
    • There is a pre-tex pension settlement charge of $36.1 million resulted from the transferred of $207.4 million of pension plan assets to insurance company.
    • Noted numerous highlights by AI in pension plan and other retirement benefits.

    Recap MD&A:

    • Different from 2017 and 2016, 2018 10-K is more focused on the impacts brought about by the 2017 Tax Act than foundamental changes at firm. It resulted in a net benefit of $0.09 per share for 2018.
    • We recommend reading the impact of brexit section in MD&A to further understand management position on the exit and how they are planning to manage the risk
    • Noticed a much improved business in Marmaxx and Homegood business though e-commerce continue to not play a significant factor. For Marmaxx, margin wise the 13.5% disguised the 0.4 percent reduction due to Siera impairment and higher incentive compensation and store wage. If operated in similiar environment, the expected margin would be 14.2% which is about the same as fiscal 2017. Homegood margins are under pressue due to higher freight cost, higher distribution cost, and higher wage costs. The collective effect is about 1.1%.
    submitted by /u/liangchen1992b
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    Using IRR as a discount rate?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 12:30 PM PDT

    In the TIP valuation course, an IRR is used as the discount rate in the FCF DCF. Does anyone know the rationale behind this? isn't the point of IRR to effectively make the PV to 0?

    submitted by /u/gymaliz
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    How to auto buy stocks when the hit a certain price

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 07:44 AM PDT

    I use vanguard and morning star and let's say I want to buy $5000 in stock in Kimco OR AT&T. Of course I want a deal to buy low. The 52 week low for Kimco is $13.16 a share so let's say I want to buy if it hits $15. The 52 week low for AT&T is $26.80 so let's say I want to buy at $28. How do i monitor these 2 stocks in this example other then looking at their price every day? Do I place a limit or stop order? If I only have $5k in my settlement fund I cannot place orders of $5k on each stock and which every hits my target first gets bought.

    This is just an example. I have about 20 stocks in my portfolio and I don't think i want to dollar cost average into all of my stocks every month. I can't time the market but I am trying to understand how to invest more funds into the stocks i want to hold and yet get a deal when their price dips?
    Is it best to set up some sort of alert when a stock his a certain price, then run to a computer to buy or setup limit or stop orders. Sorry for the stupid question.

    submitted by /u/David949
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    So I’m completely new to investing but seeing as an election year is coming up here soon what is the general consensus on short term investments on firearms manufactures? They typically see a boom in sales every election cycle but does this translate to an increase in stock price?

    Posted: 04 Apr 2019 08:49 PM PDT
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