Value Investing How do you reasonably set up the worst scenario? |
- How do you reasonably set up the worst scenario?
- Are there any notable investors who have made their fortune in small cap stocks?
- LYFT-Off? | No Mercy / No Malice
- The Great Replacement Virus is Wiping MBR!
- "More Than You Know" market-beating mutual funds performance followup questions
- Warren Buffett Interview w/Becky Quick (2019)
- Fed funds rate - range bound but barely moves
- ADW Capital Partners Seeks Sale of Select Interior Concepts
- Three Ideas in Shipping
| How do you reasonably set up the worst scenario? Posted: 30 Mar 2019 02:53 AM PDT I think the essence of performing the philosophy of margin of safety is depending on it's lower bound of estimated range. if you start from optimistically estimated future it doesn't give you true margin of safety even if you set substantial discount from it. one quantitative way of setting up the worst scenario could be derived from it's history. like applying maximum drawdown rate in history to the latest figure. but it usually works for cyclical companies. i'm wondering that how you guys are setting the worst scenario in rational way rather than just applying the conservative attitude arbitrary. [link] [comments]  |
| Are there any notable investors who have made their fortune in small cap stocks? Posted: 29 Mar 2019 09:59 AM PDT It's my belief that the market for securities with less analyst coverage and institutional holders has the potential to be much less efficient. Also, historical returns have shown that small cap stocks significantly outperform their larger brethren. [link] [comments]  |
| LYFT-Off? | No Mercy / No Malice Posted: 29 Mar 2019 07:20 PM PDT |
| The Great Replacement Virus is Wiping MBR! Posted: 30 Mar 2019 03:32 AM PDT Hello Fellows, I found this and wanted to share. https://www.grahamcluley.com/new-zealand-shooters-manifesto-used-to-spread-disk-wiping-malware/ Regards. [link] [comments]  |
| "More Than You Know" market-beating mutual funds performance followup questions Posted: 29 Mar 2019 06:23 AM PDT Having re-read Michael J. Mauboussin excellent "More Than You Know" book, I have decided to do a realty check and created an updated spreadsheet with ten-year performance (as of 03/28/2019) of the twenty S&P 500 beating mutual funds from the book. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15tJlHlSO_3iX1yedXJ8PXmU39lZkKdjQWBQixVYLAlU/edit?usp=sharing According to the book, these mutual funds had four attributes that set the group apart from the majority of active equity mutual fund managers:
Based on the process advantages as described in the book, many of these should continue beating the S&P 500 or at least as a group - revert to mean. How did they actually fare? Out of the 20 mutual funds:
The average performance of the 17 survivors was 13.66% (with possible survivorship bias) , lagging the S&P 500 15.58% by almost two percent. This raises questions:
[link] [comments]  |
| Warren Buffett Interview w/Becky Quick (2019) Posted: 29 Mar 2019 09:06 AM PDT |
| Fed funds rate - range bound but barely moves Posted: 29 Mar 2019 10:32 AM PDT While the FOMC sets a range for the federal funds rate (2.25-2.50% currently), it doesn't seem to move much. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF In fact, since December 20th, it's fluctuated between 2.40-2.41%. This is during a time period when the 10Y fell below it causing a slight inversion. I would have expected the FFR to drop to the lower part of the bound. Does anyone know why it doesn't move more within the bound that the FOMC sets? [link] [comments]  |
| ADW Capital Partners Seeks Sale of Select Interior Concepts Posted: 29 Mar 2019 06:39 AM PDT |
| Posted: 29 Mar 2019 06:25 AM PDT |
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