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    Financial Independence Weekly “Help Me FIRE!” thread. Post your detailed information for highly specific advice. - March 04, 2019

    Financial Independence Weekly “Help Me FIRE!” thread. Post your detailed information for highly specific advice. - March 04, 2019


    Weekly “Help Me FIRE!” thread. Post your detailed information for highly specific advice. - March 04, 2019

    Posted: 03 Mar 2019 10:09 PM PST

    Need help applying broader FIRE principles to your own situation? We're here for you!

    Post your detailed personal "case study" and ask as many questions as you like, or help others who've done the same. Not sure if your questions pertain? Post them anyway…you might be surprised.

    It'll be helpful to use our suggested format. Simply copy/paste/fill in/etc. But since everybody's situation is different, feel free to tailor your layout to your needs.

    -Introduce yourself

    -Age / Industry / Location

    -General goals

    -Target FIRE Age / Amount / Withdrawal Rate / Location

    -Educational background and plans

    -Career situation and plans

    -Current and future income breakdown, including one-time events

    -Budget breakdown

    -Asset breakdown, including home, cars, etc.

    -Debt breakdown

    -Health concerns

    -Family: current situation / future plans / special needs / elderly parents

    -Other info

    -Questions?

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    A pessimist's case against the 4% rule

    Posted: 04 Mar 2019 01:31 PM PST

    Edited for typo and added bullet point

    Hello! Longtime fan of FIRE (doing it before I knew it was a thing). I love the back-and-forth discussions around SWR; it seems like the real answer is "we don't know", since it's always possible that the future will be structurally different in ways we don't forecast.

    Nonetheless, I thought I'd give my 2 cents as an industry research economist.

    As we all know, the 4% is based on historical S&P500 data. The draw is that it's based on a LOT of history, something like 80 years, including tons of ups and downs, wars, technological breakthroughs, etc. However, let me make the case why it might not hold true for people like myself (mid-30's, living in the US, invested in a lot of US equities).

    In a lot of ways, equity prices come down to expected corporate earnings (I say expected, because the price at any given time is a type of forecast of future earnings/cash flows, discounted to present value).

    If we look structurally at the US economy, however, it's started to look more and more European (no judgement here!):

    • The workforce is trending older and more educated
    • Long-term prime-age workforce participation continues to tick downward
    • By many measures (maybe all?), both supply and demand for labor are getting less dynamic
      • New business formation rate has decreased, while avg. firm size, quits, hires, time-to-hire/fire are increasing
      • Concentration has increased (airlines are an easy and concrete example), leading to less innovation and competition within industries
      • Movement by individuals (within or between states) is way down from a generation ago
      • Family size continues to decrease
      • Increase in occupational licensing (from 8% in the 1950's to roughly a quarter of workers today)

    All of these things lead me to believe that the next 30 years of the S&P 500 may look more like the CAC40 (not good for long-term investors). What do I do? Well, I'm happily working, and a long way from FI, so I have the luxury to worry about this in theory, not practice.

    FWIW, there's a really strong case to be made that the 4% is probably fine- it boils down 4% still being a lot lower than the average total return, so a decrease in long-term returns from 8% to 6% may still be OK. But hopefully this can at least provide some food for thought for those here that are interested in possible determinants of long-term equity prices.

    submitted by /u/dg_fan_2837
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    Weekly budgeting ritual for couples

    Posted: 03 Mar 2019 05:41 PM PST

    Hi All,

    I thought I would share a best case practice I've been working on with my husband for us to build the habit of going over our budget together every week. We have started the following ritual of going over our personal finances together on the first week of Jan and haven't missed a week yet - we look forward to this a lot.

    Keys to success: we decided on an annual budget in December over the holidays together, then broke it down into a weekly budget. We decided to set a weekly "date night" on friday nights, where we combined something we WANT to do (go on a date), with something we HAVE to do (review our finances). We also have a few other traditions/rituals that sweeten the deal. Here's how it looks in practice:

    1. On the way home from work on Fridays, I buy him a chocolate bar. We both follow a very healthy diet and have lost a ton of weight doing so, but chocolate bars are the one thing he used to eat all the time and now he doesn't eat. He doesn't buy them on his own, but he LOVES it when I buy one for him. So he enjoys his chocolate bar while we do our finances, which is a little bit of a spoon full of sugar situation and i think has helped make him look forward to it.
    2. We sit down at our computers, pull up our weekly spreadsheet, and use the program WAVE (kind of like mint), to pull all our debit/credit card accounts from the last week. We then go through what we spent, categorizing everything into the categories of our pre-set budget. There's no judgement here, we just discuss what we spent and for which category.
    3. We run a report in wave to tally all of our various spending categories. We then see if it matches up to our current budget, goes over, or comes in under.
    4. If it comes in under, we IMMEDIATELY allocate the amount we came in under budget to our next savings goal (i.e. pay off debt, move to a 529, move to a vacation fund, etc.) THIS IS KEY, it is SO gratifiying to see your money working for you. I think OFTEN during the week before spending on something if it's going to blow my budget because I REALLY look forward to those fridy night payoffs/budget wins.
    5. We try as hard as we possibly can to keep this whole ritual to just an hour.
    6. IMMEDIATELY after doing so, we go to our favorite restaurant and have a nice romantic evening (we only do this once a week, usually). We love celebrating our "victories" and talking about our next goals together.

    I came up with this ritual after reading Atomic Habits by James Clear. It's a great book which essentially tricks your mind into solidifying your habits by doing things like habit stacking (we had a ritual of going out to dinner on fridays before this, so we built on that by adding the finance piece first), combing stuff you have to do with stuff you want to do (i.e. I'll only watch netflix on the treadmill or (here) I'll only eat a chocolate bar during budget night), and optimizing the cue-responses- reward mechanism (here: cue: it's friday night, response (better do the budget), reward (KEY: we pay off debt/save for the future/go to dinner). Hope this helps someone else. So far this year we have been SLAYING our current personal finance goals way ahead of the schedule we set in December, and I credit most of that to this new habit.

    submitted by /u/ThatDIYCouple
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    Anyone see Generation Wealth?

    Posted: 04 Mar 2019 12:35 AM PST

    Just watched this movie on Amazon Prime and thought it was really on point for the ethos of this sub. It follows the rampant consumerism and pursuit of meaningless mega wealth from the 90s to now.

    But my favorite part was how many of the characters, over 30 years, comes around to a non-monetary, value based thinking. Where money loses its correlation to what brings real value to their lives.

    http://www.generation-wealth.com/

    Also, I'll leave it with a quote from the ex hedge fund manager and now fugitive from the film. "If you think money will buy you anything and everything, then you've never ever ever had money."

    submitted by /u/gitfetchcash
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    Is it foolish not to move?

    Posted: 04 Mar 2019 08:37 AM PST

    Hey guys. I'm just out of college, living in a HCOL area in an entry-level SWE position.

    I started renting a condo in August. It's a fantastic place, perfect for the events I host, great location, and very short commute. However, I signed the lease before I discovered this subreddit.

    I've made significant changes to my lifestyle recently, and started planning out long-term FIRE goals. However, my condo is a glaring exception.

    I would be sad to move, and realistically need to find roommate(s) given the area I'm in. How many of you would give up the nice living space and find something cheaper? Can I achieve reasonable savings if I don't?

    For context, my annual rent is currently approximately 25% of my pre-tax salary if I include utilities.

    submitted by /u/Throwfire8
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    Daily FI discussion thread - March 04, 2019

    Posted: 04 Mar 2019 12:10 AM PST

    Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply!

    Have a look at the FAQ for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked.

    Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    The New 30-Something...Receiving Financial Assistance in Your 30s

    Posted: 04 Mar 2019 12:35 AM PST

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/02/style/financial-independence-30s.html

    This is a really interesting article and highlights a growing trend that I have been seeing.

    Having hit my 30s recently, this very relatable. Both my brothers have received assistance from our parents--from a down payment on a home to child care. And both my brothers are successful by our standards. Even my close friends had to ask for help to help co-sign on their first home purchase. This is starting to be a new normal for my peers.

    On this forum, we all share the desire to FI and eventually RE. Not all of us are born into the same situation. I am an immigrant--first generation, from parents who gave up everything to start over in America. I am also fortunate enough to be debt free and have a very high savings rate after working all these years. But working overseas and knowing that one day I will have to settle back in the States, I have my worries and concerns. If anything, I am even more focused on my goals now. It scary to think that many more are just struggling to get by. I don't ever want that for myself or my family. What's why I need to make that Fuck You money!

    This is why I am pursuing FI and hopefully RE along the way.

    submitted by /u/chasinpaperplanes
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    If 2008 happened and the banks did NOT receive bailouts, what would have been the best ways to preserve wealth or take advantage?

    Posted: 03 Mar 2019 04:30 PM PST

    In other words, what kind of investments would be likely to lose all value in the event of a major market downturn where the federal government is unwilling or unable to bail out the affected sectors? What would still retain value and what would eventually regain it? Assuming the event is not cataclysmic to the extent of "hoard food and weapons" but is at least as severe as the Great Recession? Would inflation make cash worth much less? Would real estate hold value? Could the stock market drop far enough that it could potentially take decades to recover? I ask because right now I have a stable job, can stay with my parents indefinitely, have a small nest egg, and no debts or obligations. I can afford to be patient until the next recession, however long that is. But eventually there will be a major downturn of some kind, and I would like to be prepared so my plan to FIRE is not derailed when that happens. How do you protect against such an event?

    submitted by /u/Johnny55
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    Weekly FI Monday Milestone thread - March 04, 2019

    Posted: 04 Mar 2019 12:10 AM PST

    Please use this thread to post your milestones, humblebrags and status updates which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply!

    Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Kinda RE, but in a non conventional way. Looking for hobbies

    Posted: 03 Mar 2019 11:55 PM PST

    Hey guys, so I'm trying to FIRE as a business owner.

    Thing is, I'm currently bringing in just over 115k a year and after recent changes in the structure of my businsss, I'm only working around 15 hours a week at the moment including drive time.

    I have around 70K in assets, no debt.

    My current hobbies include around 15 hours a week of volunteer time at church. Going to school part time. Weight lifting. Reading. Etc.

    I just feel like I have so much free time. I'm 24 years old and all my friends work 70+ hours making a lot less than I do. I hang out with friends as often as I can, but I basically have unlimited free time from 9 a.m. till 5 p.m. seven days a week.

    How do you guys fill your free time?

    submitted by /u/GHOSTLYHUMAN
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    FIRE shoutout spotted in my 401(k) provider's email newsletter

    Posted: 03 Mar 2019 06:48 PM PST

    https://imgur.com/a/nraoOtR

    It's crazy how mainstream this movement has become over the last few years!

    submitted by /u/Quaking-Aspen
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    What's the best count-argument for people saying "a stock correction is coming sooner or later, longest bull market in history - it's smarter to wait for that and buy VTSAX at a big discount then"?

    Posted: 03 Mar 2019 04:25 PM PST

    FIRE made it onto the BBC Website

    Posted: 04 Mar 2019 08:20 AM PST

    https://bbc.in/2TudiZk

    I thought of this sub immediately! It's the first time I've seen talking about FIRE in mainstream media.

    submitted by /u/MarucaMCA
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    A way to measure FI efficiency

    Posted: 03 Mar 2019 04:45 PM PST

    In the FI world, there are many key figures for measuring one's FI health (savings rate, SWR, etc.). In the spirit of tax season, I propose a number-crunching exercise that attempts to measure one's lifetime FI efficiency:

    FI Efficiency = [Net Worth] / [Total Lifetime Income]

    I like to use this number as a measure of how efficiently I'm using my earned income to earn my independence.

    submitted by /u/lilcheez
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