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    Wednesday, December 26, 2018

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Dec 26, 2018

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Dec 26, 2018


    r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Dec 26, 2018

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 04:08 AM PST

    These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday.

    Some helpful links:

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Thanks /u/catfarts99

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 09:25 AM PST

    I would just like to thank /u/catfarts99 for saving the economy!

    I don't know how we would have survived without this man, without him we were in for certain doom.

    submitted by /u/Exbozz
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    Long term stocks

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 01:11 AM PST

    With the recent drop in prices for almost all stock. What stock are your recommendations that I could benefit in the years to come. Im planning to keep them for 5 to 10 years regardless of the market. I currently have amzn and dis

    submitted by /u/OhMyGodItIsMe
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    Is this a dead cat bounce?

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 09:32 AM PST

    Do you guys think that this sudden upswing in the markets is just a blip and that the markets will continue to trend downwards? Or do you think we have finally reversed for good.

    submitted by /u/Periodicowner123
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    All us stock indice futures green right now

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 03:49 AM PST

    Have we seen the end of this correction?

    All US futures are green right now: https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

    U.S. stock markets suffered their steepest Christmas Eve decline in decades Monday, defying the best efforts by the Trump administration to instill confidence, and coming very close to ending a record 10-year upward run.

    By the end of Monday's shortened holiday trading session, the great bull market that began in the lows of March 2009 lay lifeless, capping a three-week, 16 percent sell-off of the S&P 500.

    President Trump and administration officials faced intense scrutiny of their unorthodox attempts to steady nervous markets. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's phone calls Sunday to major U.S. banks further stoked anxiety among traders, while Trump's Monday tweet attacking the Federal Reserve for not having "a feel for the Market" appeared to exacerbate the day's sell-off.

    Investors have been shaken by recent economic and political ­developments, including the abrupt resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis; a partial federal government shutdown; an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve; speculation that Trump might seek to fire Fed chief Jerome H. Powell; Mnuchin's unusual calls to U.S. banks; and Trump's sudden decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria against the counsel of his national security team.

    Do you think the stock market will continue to tank?

    Or have we seen a bottom in this area?

    submitted by /u/gorillaz0e
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    Your AM Global Stocks Preview and a whole lot more news that you need to read: US stocks advancing in early trading on Boxing Day

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 05:03 AM PST

    US Stocks

    • US stocks index futures are rising, as front-month Dow Jones minis +0.57%, S&P 500 minis +0.61% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.56%
    • US holiday retails sales rose 5.1% compared with a year ago, the strongest growth in 6 years, according to a report in the Wall Streeet Journal today
    • The US government shutdown continues with no end coming soon as Congress is not in session
    • Oil is catching a bid this moring with WTI up 1.7%
    • The VIX is moving down this morning and is currently at 34.86 after closing at 36.07 Tuesday
    • Bank of America (BAC) December 28 OTM Calls, HYG February 15 & March 15 2019 OTM Puts, and SPY January 18 OTM Puts are some of the most actively traded options contracts in the US pre-market this morning
    • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 0.34 basis points to 2.7417%
    • The US Treasury 2s-5s Spread has narrowed 0.45 basis points to 0.02%
    • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.42 basis points to 0.18%
    • WTI Crude is currently up 1.7% to USD$43.26/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$1.26 to USD$8.03/bbl
    • Gold is currently up 0.39% to USD$1273.53/oz

    Stocks Trending in the News

    Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.

    • Amazon (AMZN) reported "record-breaking" holiday season sales, saying it shipped more items world-wide than it ever has. Amazon said tens of millions of people stated Prime memberships this holiday season. Amazon shipped over 1 billion items for free for Prime members. Amazon is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Attractive" in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • ExxonMobil (XOM) is on track for its worst year since 1981, according to a Bloomberg report today. ExxonMobil is in the midst of one of the biggest restructuring efforts ever, a USD$200 billion, 7-year plan. ExxonMobil has no problem with funding the plan but the time it takes to see fruit of these effort could be some time in the future, the story goes on to note. ExxonMobil is rated "Attractive" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. (TSE: 6305), the world's largest maker of construction excavators, said it sees demand in 2019 flat or somewhat lower. Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. said North America and India will not be able to make up for lagging demand in the rest of the world, as had been the recent trend. Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. has seen 3 years of strong demand and lower commodity prices as well as trade uncertainly has tamped demand. Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. is rated "Unattractive" in our Japan Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • JD.com (JD) announced it approved a USD$1 billion share buyback program. JD.com last approved a USD$1 billion buyback in September of 2015. The buyback comes as the end of a year that has seen JD.com stock fall 52%. JD.com is rated "Top Short" in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Mastercard (MA) said holiday sales in the US rose 5.1% from a year ago, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. That is the strongest growth in 6 years. Mastercard consider the holiday season to be November 1st until December 24th. Online sales grew 19.1% while department stores sales fell 1.3%. Mastercard is rated "Top Buy" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Attractive" in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Tesla (TSLA) has been working overtime to deliver vehicles to owners before the end of the year in its usual end-of-year push. Tesla is trying to maintain strong growth numbers while helping customers take advantage of a tax credit for 2018 that is in effect, which requires the delivery take place before 2018 comes to a close. Tesla is rated "Top Short" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Neutral" in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.

    European Stocks

    • European stock markets are closed
    • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.1385
    • GBP£ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.2688
    • CHF is currently down -0.316% against the USD$ to 1.0098
    • German 10-Year Bunds are flat with yields little changed 0 basis points to 0.25%
    • UK 10-Year GILTs are flat with yields little changed 0 basis points to 1.263%

    Asian Stocks

    • The Nikkei 225 finished up +0.89%, the Hang Seng ended down -0.4%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise declined -0.38%, and the CSI 300 was -0.51%
    • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 4.49x
    • 0 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 220 stocks reached 4-week lows
    • 0 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 166 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
    • Japan 2-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 1.9 basis points to -0.127%
    • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 0.3 basis points to 0.022%
    • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 1.6 basis points to 0.15%
    • China RMB 2-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 3.8 basis points to 2.762%
    • China RMB 10-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -1 basis points to 3.31%
    • China Government RMB 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 4.8 basis points to 0.55%
    • JPY¥ is currently up +0.254% against the USD$ to 110.59
    submitted by /u/QuantalyticsResearch
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    AT&T's dividend too high?

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 08:02 AM PST

    Can AT&T continue paying out its dividend at the rate it is at now? Seems a little too high to me.

    submitted by /u/Periodicowner123
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    Started investing in October... what an education. Looking for advice.

    Posted: 25 Dec 2018 09:59 PM PST

    I've nearly made it to 40 (years old) without dabbling in the stock-market. Only minor investing done through work retirement accounts, bonds, and things of that nature. But with a few hundred thousand just sitting around doing nothing, I decided back in August to start trying to learn about investing in stocks to get my money working for me. Needless to say - what and education it has been.

    Invested a modest 10k (apprx) between Aug & October in a mixture of INTC, GOOGL, AMZN, SQ, VZ, AMD, NFLX, PEGI, NVDA. I was quite pleased with earning about 5% by October but boy, what a time to start investing. Down over 3k from about 10k (down to about 6.9k now.)

    As a new investor, losing over a quarter of my investment in a few months with no end in sight is a bit of a shock.

    I'm assuming the advice at this point is "Hang on. Keep investing", but just want to hear the opinion of the masses. At this rate it's probably going to take me well over a year or two to regain what I've already lost.

    My reasonable, amateur inclination is to give it a little more time until there's an upward trend and invest another 10k over a few months to expedite the recovery. But I see other people on subs here suggesting they've sold the bulk of their positions and are waiting out the bear. Maybe that's the right strategy given the current circumstances? Should I consider moving a big chunk of my funds to some well-performing ETFs? Just don't have a lot of knowledge about those. Does it seem foolish to just hang on at this point, having invested at the peak of the bull, when it seems universally agreed we've still got a long way to fall?

    What do you suggest?

    EDIT: Headline incorrect - started investing in **AUGUST**, not October. Apologies.

    submitted by /u/urbanreason
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    As 2018 comes to an end, what is the biggest lesson(s) you learned about the market?

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 12:29 PM PST

    Chime away. Hopefully we can spread our biggest takeaway of the year and how you plan of applying it for 2019.

    submitted by /u/seriousgenius
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    Short Seller Citron Research turns from skeptic to a major bull on Facebook

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 10:25 AM PST

    (Reuters) - Short-seller Citron Research on Wednesday backed Facebook Inc, saying the stock could hit $160 in 2019 as the company's revenue and user base have seen little impact from the reported data scandals and privacy issues this year.

    Shares of the social network rose as much as 4.4 percent to $129.57 after Citron's report. They are down 28 percent this year.

    "We believe investors will be rewarded by the shift of user behavior to Instagram shopping and the personalization of the commerce process," according to Citron's research note https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Citron-Research-Backing-Up-the-Sleigh-on-Facebook.pdf.

    Citron said Facebook has come a long way, turning the short-seller from a "one-time skeptic to a major bull".

    "As investors have become overly concerned about the short-term noise of privacy and propaganda, they have forgotten to look at the earnings power and potential of the most advanced advertising tool with global reach in messaging, networking, and the future of shopping," the short-seller said.

    submitted by /u/SuchRush
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    Asian stocks before the markets open.

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 01:51 PM PST

    Us market is up. And looking good What should I invest in in Asia before they open? I'm thinking tencent

    submitted by /u/meanordljato
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    Bear market. How long will this really last if the economy doesn’t go south?

    Posted: 25 Dec 2018 10:41 PM PST

    As of now the market is just running on pure fear. So if the economy doesn't head south to match the markets price action how long can this really last? I hear people trying to compare this to the great depression and the financial crisis but in reality we are no where near as bad shape as we were back then.

    submitted by /u/Jpat863
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    Rego and Rego Jr. have 33 predictions for post holidays

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 01:42 PM PST

    While I was away for the holidays I had my AIs keep working determining which stocks would at least see a 15% increase in the next two months.

    Out of the 33 predictions both Rego and Rego Jr both agree on 3 stocks (AMZN, HEAR, KALV) and partially agree on one stock (HAIR)

    More details on the predictions can be found here.

    submitted by /u/Tolure
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    ELI5 puts edition.

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 01:08 PM PST

    Can someone please explain to me in a simple way what puts are and how they make money?

    submitted by /u/blakepoe
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    which dividend stocks do you have your eye on?

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 10:18 AM PST

    with the recent dip in the market, it's typically a good time to pick up some dividend stocks. which one's do you have your eye on?

    submitted by /u/that_kid_steak
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    Risk/Reward , Technicals, and Anticipation of the Next Market Move

    Posted: 25 Dec 2018 10:07 PM PST

    I'm reading a lot of posts in r/stocks and WSB on buying puts as a sure way of making money in this market downturn. I think it's worth a discussion because we're at key junctures for a number of different stocks and indexes.

    Some observations:

    • FAANG Apple was the last FAANG stock to succumb to the death cross, a bearish sign that typically (but not always) indicates further selling pressure and an accelerating downward trend Link: https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/A6C0D83C-048F-11E9-BCDB-3413F1527F47

    • Tech stocks like SQ/TWLO/ZUO/CRM (and other stocks with poor fundamentals) are down 30-60% from their ATHs in October and are in fickle states as they just barely hold above key levels of support (50/100/200 DMA)

    • DJIA It's rare to see a major index like the Dow form a death cross, but we saw the 50 DMA fall through the 200 DMA this month and we're currently in free fall. All the technicals indicate 'strong sell'.

    • A lot of influences on the market right now: Fed rate hikes, Trump <> China, etc.

    Some of my thoughts:

    • Personally, my investment strategy is based on technical analysis - I do NOT think the r/r is worth it to enter a position here. Depends on your level of risk tolerance, but cash is king right now and I wouldn't be adding to your positions unless it's a blue chip stock (I.e. MSFT) and you're DCA-ing down every 5-7% dip.

    • It's interesting to look at hedge funds and financial institutions selling in Aug/Sept in retrospect. People thought they were crazy to sell and said they were leaving money on the table -- looking back, they saved billions of dollars.

    • I do NOT believe we're headed towards a recession and I don't think the market is going to crash, however, I DO believe that we will see the market potentially wipe another year (or two) of gains

    • If you're looking to buy some Put options,you should wait for the DCB to short the market to the ground

    • Remember this chart? https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/content_image/data/ca/ca6b0ea0a8d8c27f659674342da097c9.jpg --- I think we are in the first few innings of the Anxiety phase. People are still calling the bottom and throwing their life savings in saying that these are discount prices. The sentiment combined with technicals IMO indicate that we are headed lower.

    What moves are y'all making?

    submitted by /u/ceud
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    Bottom reached?

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 10:01 AM PST

    I think we might of reached bottom. The Dow couldn't even stay more than one day in bear territory. We might finish the year off strong.

    submitted by /u/New2thisOKC
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    LT Naked Spy Calls

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 09:07 AM PST

    How do people feel about buying LT January 2021 in the margin calls on the spy? Like buying strike price 230 meaning break even at 255. If we go into a recession, maybe we will be out of it in 2-3 yrs?

    submitted by /u/BelgianBillie
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    Interest in Pre IPO stocks like LYFT

    Posted: 25 Dec 2018 02:56 PM PST

    Any Pre IPO investors here? Looking to exchange info on various pre ipo issues such as LYFT, Palantir

    submitted by /u/preiposwap
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    Easy 10k Forms

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 08:30 AM PST

    I saw a post about this earlier but can't seem to find it. What are some companies that have simple 10k forms to read and understand.

    submitted by /u/ccards27
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    I think one thing that will tell the true health of the economy will be

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 07:59 AM PST

    the amount of money used on the holiday shopping season. Whether the numbers of sales by businesses, or just the amount the average consumer spent will go a long way to showing the health of the economy overall.

    I think a lot of people are worried about nonfactors in the market and worried we are slipping into a recession just because of some missed quarterly reports. I am leaning on the edge that this holiday season will be an absolute monster (in a good way).

    Sorry if this seems like a clickbait title, couldn't think of one and just made it a run on sentence.

    submitted by /u/Blahblahblahstocks
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    $ANFI looks hot now

    Posted: 26 Dec 2018 07:27 AM PST

    I was in this stock today it took off look at $ANFI it went over 50 % and it is looking like it will come back. https://pennystocks.news/anfi/

    submitted by /u/Othonas2497
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    The “Winter of Puts” is upon us. What are your picks? CSPs and Puts

    Posted: 25 Dec 2018 03:30 PM PST

    Assuming things will turn bleaker from here, what stocks would you sell cash secured puts on or buy naked puts? List your reasons and strikes.

    submitted by /u/neve1064
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