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    Monday, December 31, 2018

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Dec 31, 2018

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Dec 31, 2018


    r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Dec 31, 2018

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 04:09 AM PST

    These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday.

    Some helpful links:

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Why drastic difference between GOOG and GOOGL some mornings pre market?

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 04:06 AM PST

    This morning right now GOOG is up 15.33 and GOOGL is up .67.

    Why?

    submitted by /u/bartturner
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    How to hedge against China's ghost town crisis?

    Posted: 30 Dec 2018 11:53 PM PST

    I've read some books like Hary Dent's sale of life time. They mentioned about China's urbanization on steroids leading to ghost cities. And it can be a simple trigger to the collapse of the real estate market. For example just search ghost town on youtube. Given that there are many ghost cities and shit buildings that no one lives in in China and that you can invest in China equities, what industry will benefit? One idea is the demolition companies but buildings are already fall down by itself. Another idea will be some sort of recycling or clean up, trash collection industry. What are your thoughts?

    submitted by /u/stockcapture
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    Financial sector of equities market performs well in a rising rate environment. Right?

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 11:22 AM PST

    The cost of debt was very low for the past few years. Therefore, as banks loaned out large sums of capital across the market, won't this mean they (JPM, BAC, WF, C, etc.) will collect more interest/generate more profits as the Fed raises interest rates next year?

    submitted by /u/AFMCbrah
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    Thoughts on ROKU?

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 12:14 PM PST

    ROKU has been hit very hard in the past few months (75 to 30). The latest ER had a 20% cut when they beat EPS but had lower guidance. It seems to finally be stabilizing, and I'm thinking of opening a position. Is this still an pump and dump with more room to fall? I see lots of potential upside and don't think it will decrease much more.

    submitted by /u/IDKWAT2NAME
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    It's official: US stocks suffer worst year since 2008 financial crisis; S&P 500 sees 6.2 percent annual drop, Dow falls 5.6 percent.

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 01:48 PM PST

    Per the Associated Press.

    https://apnews.com/4b133176caf74126b3255ee4b0388508?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP

    Personally, I still have decades to go so I'm just holding what I own and riding it out. But man, it sucks so hard having put years of "I should have invested this" money into the market in late September. I'm a living example of why you should start as young as you can.

    submitted by /u/AlwaysTheNoob
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    Massive volume spike last minutes of trading today?

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 01:45 PM PST

    It's not uncommon to see the heaviest volume on the close of the trading day.. but today it came minutes before the close. Does anyone have any thoughts?

    submitted by /u/Luxbu
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    Your AM Global Stocks Preview and a whole lot more news that you need to read: Global stocks advancing on the last day of trading for 2018 on hopes for continued progress in US-China trade talks

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 04:58 AM PST

    US Stocks

    • US stocks index futures are advancing and point to a positive close to a volatile CY2018 with front-month Dow Jones minis +1.07%, S&P 500 minis +0.99% and Nasdaq 100 minis +1.16%
    • In spite of last week's rally, US stocks are on pace for their worst year since 2008 financial crisis
    • Interesting fact for the day: while the S&P 500 is having its worst year since 2008, "technically", the 9 year bull market still has not "broken" with S&P 500 still holding above its weekly trend line
    • According to Bloomberg analysis, whole valuation for the S&P 500 as measured by the Cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio remains at historically elevated levels, the CY2018 contraction in the ratio may point to a rally in US stocks next year -- on average, in subsequent years after a 10% drop in the CAPE ratio, the real return in the S&P 500 has been +9.6% going back to 1871
    • US President Donald Trump tweets that negotiations between US and Chinese trade officials are "moving along well" with "big progress" towards a comprehensive trade deal between the world's two largest economies
    • Emerging Markets ETFs experienced their 11th straight week of inflows with USD$300.9 million flowing into emerging markets stocks ETFS
    • The VIX is moving down this morning and is currently at 27.19 after closing at 28.34 last week
    • XOP January 18 OTM Calls, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU) January 18 OTM Call and IWM January 04 OTM Calls are some of the most actively traded options in the US premarket this morning
    • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 1.58 basis points to 2.734%
    • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.77 basis points to 0.21%
    • WTI Crude is currently up 1.61% to USD$45.33/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$1.36 to USD$8.1/bbl
    • Gold is currently little changed 0.21% to USD$1283.38/oz

    Stocks Trending in the News

    Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.

    • Aflac (AFL) said it will enter reinsurance agreements on certain products with Singapore Life. Aflac will make an initial USD$20mn minority investment in the concern as Aflac seeks to enter new markets. Aflac describes the venture as a good example of its ability to leverage digital technology to enter new markets. Aflac is rated "Attractive" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Amazon (AMZN) is making a big push in India to train shoppers on using its website. Amazon has added Hindi and videos to its ordering screen to help residents on the Indian countryside, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal today. Amazon is also adding small stores where shoppers can learn and a fleet of local delivery people what can accept payment when delivering. Amazon is focused on the interior in Indian where 800 million people live and often d not have access to a retailer. Amazon is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Attractive" in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Canada Goose (TSX: GOOS) opened its first store in China this past Friday. The store in located in Shanghai and has seen heavy crowds since its opening. This despite the diplomatic tension between Canada and China after Canada detained a Huawei executive at the US's request. Canada Goose is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Facebook's (FB) recent data scandal has brought many criticisms of inaction at the Federal Trade Commission, according to a New York Times report today. Facebook was not responsible for consultant's misuse of Facebook user data, the Commission rules, rankling many proponents of stronger data protection rules. Facebook is rated is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Attractive" in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Nissan's (TSE: 7201) ousted chairman Carlos Ghosn will remain in jail until January 19th as prosecutors won more detention time for him. Mr. Ghosn has been detained since November 19th for alleged financial crimes related to his personal finances. Nissan is rated "Top Buy" in our Japan Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Tencent (TCEHY, SEHK: 700) was not the beneficiary of any approval for video games as China published approval for 80 new games titles. China's State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television published the approvals online today. China suspended approval of all new games earlier this year throwing a cloud of uncertainty over the sector. Tencent Amazon is rated "Neutral" in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk will visit China in 2019 for the inauguration of Tesla's production facility there. Tesla's factory is known as Gigafactory 3 and is located in Shanghai. Elon Musk tweeted that he would be in China soon for the event without giving a date. Tesla is rated "Top Short" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Neutral" in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.

    European Stocks

    • European stocks are advancing on the last day of the trading year following US President Donald Trump's tweet that US-China negotiations are proceeding well
    • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +0.33%, the FTSE 100 has declined -0.06%, the DAX has advanced +1.71%, and the CAC 40 has risen +0.94%
    • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.61x
    • Oil & Gas (+0.53%), Telecommunications (+0.08%), and Basic Resources (+0.85%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
    • Automobiles & Parts (+0.49%), Food & Beverage (+0.25%), and Utilities (+0.53%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
    • 4 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 26 stocks are at 4-week lows
    • 3 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 37 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
    • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is little changed this morning and is currently at 23.86 after closing at 23.86 yesterday
    • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.1456
    • GBP£ is currently up +0.575% against the USD$ to 1.2772
    • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.0169
    • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 1.1 basis points to 0.242%
    • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 3.9 basis points to 1.309%

    Asian Stocks

    • Asia stocks markets, for the most part, are closed today with last Friday the final day of the trading year for the Tokyo and Hong Kong stock exchanges
    • The Hang Seng ended up +1.34%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +1.33%, and the CSI 300 was +0.67%
    • Hong Kong stocks finish CY2018 down in 9 out of 12 months, the most monthly declines since 1974 – the full year decline in the Hang Seng is the biggest annual decline since CY2011
    • Indian stocks were the best performing regional stock market in Asia for CY2018 with the Sensex finishing +7.23% in local currency (-1.79% in USD$) -- domestic flows helped offset selling by foreign investors
    • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 7.33x
    • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 12 stocks reached 4-week lows
    • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 4 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
    • Asia Bond Markets Commentary
    • China RMB 2-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -1.2 basis points to 2.762%
    • China RMB 10-Year Government Bonds are flat with yields little changed 0 basis points to 3.31%
    • China Government RMB 2s-10s Spread has widened 1.2 basis points to 0.55%
    submitted by /u/QuantalyticsResearch
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    What were your favourite/best and least favourite/worst stock picks for 2018?

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 05:48 AM PST

    For me, best/fave was Sodastream which sold this year to Pepsi, least favourite was probably FB because the bad news just kept rolling.

    How about you guys?

    submitted by /u/luislovesmoney
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    Buy and hold for life strategy

    Posted: 30 Dec 2018 03:31 PM PST

    Why would one want to invest and hold on to dividend paying stocks for life (as in never selling the stock)? I ask this because the yeilds for dividends tend to be low, meaning that it would take many years for one to regain their principal back and actually start making a profit. For instance if I bought a dividend distributing share with a yeild of 2% at the moment of purchase, assuming the dividend cash amount does not change significantly, would it not take 50 years for me to regain the money spent on the stock? I've always heard praises about the buy and hold strategy and how it played a large part in Warren Buffet's techniques, but 50 years to make a profit does not really seem like a great strategy. Is there a misunderstanding that I have?

    submitted by /u/ambyAgubuzo
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    Thoughts on RSP Equal Weight ETF

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 11:41 AM PST

    Let me preface this by saying that I am an ETF and RO I advising advocate, and I am risk seeking. On a scale of 1-10, I am a 10 in this regard.

    Are there any downsides to the RSP equal weight ETF other than the expense ratio being a few basis points higher than a standard low expense S&P 500 benchmarked ETF? In theory, I understand from a beta perspective why RSP is so attractive, and it has peaked my interest. I've started to scale in as a result.

    Am I missing something here? Is there some sort of tracking error to consider that is higher than a standard S&P or Russell etf?

    submitted by /u/uracowman
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    How did the tax change and repatriation affect stocks’ PE ratios?

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 05:30 AM PST

    I've seen that some companies have sky high PE ratios and when researching it I came across something saying it was due to the tax changes and repatriation that happened in 2018.

    I'm wondering how the math on this works and how do I know if it's what's skewing the numbers on a given company?

    submitted by /u/luislovesmoney
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    First time, little knowledge

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 03:54 AM PST

    So, I know basically nothing but the absolute basics about stocks. I want to know more. I started using (a certain green app with a feather who's name starts with Robin), and bought some shares of a penny stocks(25$ worth of). But that's about it.

    I want to know more about day trading and investing wisely. I have several thousand I want to invest, but I do not want to do so until I know more. I'm looking at long term secure investments as well as short term quick gain.

    Tips, resources really anything helps. :)

    submitted by /u/MRcrazy4800
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    $Botz holder here need insight

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 03:27 AM PST

    Botz has been my worst preformer and I am down a lot. I know I should be thinking long term with botz but how long till it jumps. Would you lower cost average or let it ride?

    submitted by /u/sealdragon2
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    ETF Advice

    Posted: 30 Dec 2018 07:07 PM PST

    I have $300 in cash sitting in a Schwab account ready to invest (I know it's nothing). I want to continue to diversify my portfolio and don't know whether investing in a commodity etf, REIT etf, or international market etf is a good option. I have most of my assets allocated in large, small, and mid cap etfs. I also have a good amount of money invested in blue chips such as Microsoft and Visa. I am also 19 years old so risk would not be an issue for me as I do not plan on using this money anytime in the near future. Thanks in advance!

    submitted by /u/theinvestmantguy
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    App/website for portfolio metrics

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 09:42 AM PST

    I am looking for an app/website that provides me with metrics on my portfolio: for example dividend yield of the portfolio, beta of the portfolio vs. S&P500, etc....

    I could obviously do these calculations with a spreadsheet but it's quite annoying.

    Do you have any recommendations?

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/jscivi
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    For those buying tomorrow; what are your top 5 buys? For those who arent, why not? Do you see a continued downward trend on thw horizon?

    Posted: 30 Dec 2018 07:38 PM PST

    Im incredibly afraid to invest as im not very savvy on such devestating downward dips, im reading that stocks should jump; and am.hoping to buy into SQ, Fb, BABA, COST, HD, NVDA, AMD AND ISRG.

    Thoughts? Suggestions?

    submitted by /u/n0tcreatlve
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    Do you like SQ?

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 08:24 AM PST

    I bought Square in the $20ish range a few years ago, but didn't hang on to it.

    Thinking of holding it for a few years again now that's down.

    Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/checklistmaker
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    How do people make money/supplement their retirement with ETFs?

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 08:06 AM PST

    I was looking at ETFs for the long haul, mostly Berkshire Hathaway - B to marijuana ETFs.

    If these ETFs(which to my understanding is just many stocks under one price), but if these ETFs never go up or down in price how do people get a return on them?

    submitted by /u/Diddy43
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    Circuit breaker and Halt regarding LULD

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 03:24 AM PST

    Hey,

    I am learning about stock uptick rule when the stock goes into circuit break. However I recently learned about LULD and if stock decreases or increases by 5% from its 5-minute moving average then stock comes to halt. Does halt also trigger uptick rule regardless if the stock decreases or increases?

    Also is the old rule regarding 10% down on stock circuit break not applicable anymore since the introduction of LULD?

    submitted by /u/xXalaXx
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    Where and how can I buy IPO stocks if I am not from US or Canada?

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 02:42 AM PST

    I read somewhere that because of legalisation of cannabis there is massive potential for investing in companies that offer cannabis and related products. So I would like to buy some cheap stocks of those companies the first day they put stocks on the market and wait for them to grow. I am prepared to invest 100-200 $ and want to make a profit. But I am complete beginner and I don't know how to track those opportunities or how and where I buy them. I would really love some help and advice from you guys. Have a nice day.

    TL, DR: I want to buy cheap IPO stocks but don't know how.

    submitted by /u/sadnudegirl
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    Taxes on Liquidated Stocks for Lowest Income Bracket-er

    Posted: 30 Dec 2018 06:37 PM PST

    Hi everyone, Don't know if I should be posting this in another sub. Regardless, apologies ahead of time for the amateur question. Here is my situation ~

    Ultimately, I would like to know how to determine how much taxes i'd owe on the stocks that I had sold. A bit more context:

    My parents were in a very tenuous financial situation and in egregious debt, thus I offered to sell their stocks alongside my stocks that we held to help them. My father used to be on the Board of Directors for this company, but - after he became sick in 2013 - was unfortunately released from the board. He had acquired the stocks while he was on the board, but I actually have no idea how much he had previously purchased them for because he is sick and cannot remember information nor communicate information anymore very well. Also, my income bracket is at the lowest - I only mention this should it have an effect on how much taxes I'd owe on the stocks I'd sold. It's also worth mentioning that my parents transferred all of their stocks to my name, and I sold all of them under my name, for the purpose of them not incurring the taxes; only I would incur the taxes.

    In total, I had sold the stocks for a little over $40,000. Ultimately, I'd like to know - 1) how can I go about declaring the taxes I'd owe (considering that I don't know how much my father had originally acquired them for), and 2) would you be able to guess-timate - based on your experiences in buying and selling stocks and paying their respective taxes - how much my taxes may come out to be (considering that I am at the lowest income bracket)?

    Any advice will be helpful, as I am obviously completely new to all of this. Thanks a bunch ahead of time.

    TL;DR : I sold stocks for over 40,000. I'm in the very lowest income bracket. How much in taxes do I owe?

    submitted by /u/dotsky8
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