• Breaking News

    Friday, November 2, 2018

    Long awaited Apple Q4 Earnings: $2.91 vs $2.78 EPS expected. $793 Average Selling Price (ASP) vs $750 expected. Revenue $62.9B vs $61.57B expected. iPhone sales until Sep 30 46.89M vs 47.5M Investing

    Long awaited Apple Q4 Earnings: $2.91 vs $2.78 EPS expected. $793 Average Selling Price (ASP) vs $750 expected. Revenue $62.9B vs $61.57B expected. iPhone sales until Sep 30 46.89M vs 47.5M Investing


    Long awaited Apple Q4 Earnings: $2.91 vs $2.78 EPS expected. $793 Average Selling Price (ASP) vs $750 expected. Revenue $62.9B vs $61.57B expected. iPhone sales until Sep 30 46.89M vs 47.5M

    Posted: 01 Nov 2018 01:38 PM PDT

    Netfix, Amazon would have tripled your money in 3 years. Which blue chip stock do you think has the potential to triple within the next 5 years?

    Posted: 02 Nov 2018 02:01 AM PDT

    Assuming you will never sell for 5 years (even if it falls 50%) and will buy more at each dip. What do you think?

    I know. I know. No free lunch and nobody knows what a stock will do and everyone wants free money.

    submitted by /u/bekommen
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    I Read The News So You Don't Have To - Market News (Nov. 02, 2018)

    Posted: 02 Nov 2018 04:37 AM PDT

    UNITED STATES

    • The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for October shows activity to be slowing slightly
      • New orders and export orders both slowed
        • A strong dollar is making our exports more expensive
    • Auto sales improved a smidge but rising interest rates may be a drag on future sales
    • Productivity growth remains below 2% but is slowly rising
    • Gains in wage growth are being offset by rising inflation
      • However, oil prices are moving lower - dragging inflation expectations down with them
    • Stock futures leaped at the potential for a new trade deal with China, signaling a strong start for Friday
    • The Federal Reserve Banks total assets are down $316bn since last year

    OTHER

    • Slowing iPhone sales sparked a selloff in Apple, dragging the stock down more than 6% and dragging the index lower with it
    • Semiconductor and Homebuilder shares made big moves up after being hammered in October
    • Gold is up big after the US dollar dipped slightly
    • UK factory activity is slowing
    • Canada's monthly GDP growth was slightly higher than expected (Actual 2.5% | Expected 2.4%)
      • However, manufacturing growth is slowing
    • Iran will lose billions with the stroke of a pen on Sunday - The US will reimpose sanctions on their oil industry on November 4th.
      • The rial is already down 72% on the year

    CHINA

    • The yuan is SOARING on hopes of a trade deal with the US
    • Fujian Jinhua, a Chinese state-owned company, was charged by the US Department of Justice with the theft of secrets from Micron.
    submitted by /u/ogordained
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    IRS announces increased contribution limits for retirement accounts in 2019.

    Posted: 01 Nov 2018 08:20 AM PDT

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ira-contribution-limit-lifted-for-the-first-time-in-six-years-2018-11-01

    IRA limit will increase to $6,000; limit for 401(k)s and similar plans will increase to $19,000. Plan accordingly.

    submitted by /u/YesThisIsBare
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    Apple's Giant "Success Problem"

    Posted: 02 Nov 2018 02:35 AM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/01/apple-earnings-q4-2018.html

    Apple earnings showing continued saturation of top-line iPhone units sold. Counter-measure of increasing iPhone average sales price (ASP) can only go so far (already the highest-end offering in its segment). All other products are lower-ASP and/or not as mass-market. That's one big "success problem"!

    submitted by /u/jedi_reddit
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    Which companies should you NOT invest in?

    Posted: 01 Nov 2018 11:57 PM PDT

    We frequently discuss attractive companies to invest it. Let's change it up and do the opposite. Which companies are on your list right now to absolutely stay away from?

    submitted by /u/mastermascovich
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    Tesla 10Q is out

    Posted: 02 Nov 2018 04:17 AM PDT

    Interesting analysis going on in Twitter for everyone following the miracle quarter saga.

    http://ir.tesla.com/sec-filings

    I expect some speculation about the fact that more than 10% of their AR is one entity.

    submitted by /u/monstimal
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    Why do other countries invest so much in americas debt ?

    Posted: 01 Nov 2018 04:59 PM PDT

    Kinda goes back to the Petro dollar being a powerhouse of the world , goes right along with the world bank . If someone doesn't want to use the Petro dollar as a backing they get assassinated

    submitted by /u/commandercody95
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    Is it smart to invest the cannabis industry?

    Posted: 02 Nov 2018 12:23 AM PDT

    After hours trading

    Posted: 02 Nov 2018 01:43 AM PDT

    Is after hours trading available to everyone? If not, why not? Isn't it a little unfair if some people can trade and others can't?

    submitted by /u/UntheatricalCurl
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    AAPL Advice

    Posted: 01 Nov 2018 09:51 PM PDT

    Hello, this is my first post on this board, looking for some advice. AAPL went down ~6.5% in afterhours, and ive been wanting to buy it in the opening. Am i looking at something good? Should i trade it? Feel free to AMA

    submitted by /u/FelixJH4444
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    My best and worst trades - Week ending October 2 2018

    Posted: 02 Nov 2018 02:39 AM PDT

    Hey guys, I am going to start making these posts as a way to keep track of my trades, as well as to hopefully get some insight from the industry professionals here. I am a college student that is mainly trading options based off of my earnings forecasts, as well as some on credit ETFs and country specific ETFs.

    Best performing trades this week

    SBUX

    • I was anticipating higher earnings growth for their stores in China
    • I had a foretasted EPS of .64 cents a share, mainly contingent on the increased growth in their China stores, but also because of the decreased price of coffee commodities
    • I bought the 62 / 62.5 debit call spread for .07 ($7) per spread expiring Friday at midday yesterday
    • They beat average earnings estimate at .62 cents per share announced post market yesterday
    • Provided they open today at their postmarket price yesterday or higher of I will make 0.5 ($50) per spread
    • Approximate profit : 714%

    RHT

    • Legged into a trade based on pricing disparity in the weeklies following the IBM Acquisition announcement
    • Bought the 180 call for 0.25
    • Sold the 182.5 call for 0.30 15 minutes later
    • Approximate profit: 20%

    TLT / FLRN / GSY

    • This is more of a practice in portfolio ideation and management, I have a separate account from my options trading for managing this
    • Long bond ETFs decay uniquely during a rising rate environment due to the high portfolio turnover created by the Creation / Redemption unit process that is used to track the underlying. Turnover is often in excess of 100% per month.
    • Short sold TLT (20+ year treasury ETF), used cash to purchase FLRN (Float rate corporate ETF)
    • Created a synthetic bond spread, as equity markets rally / interest rates rise the spread widens
    • Because my net effect on cash was 0 I bought GSY to yield on the remaining cash. I am maintaining cash in the account for re-balancing weekly
    • October 2018 returns: 1.65%

    Worst performing trades this week

    EWA

    • I have been anticipating significant financial turmoil in the Australian housing market
    • Majority of households are over-levered on adjustable rate debt
    • Their housing situation is like 2008 on steroids, negative gearing and bad lending practices have led to a housing bubble
    • The question remains as to derivatives exposure of the Australian Financials
    • Bought the April 2019 18 put for 0.25 at the beginning of October
    • Last week sold the April 2019 16 put for 0.25
    • Cost of the trade is now 0.00, but Australian central bankers seem determined that they can sustain lower rates indefinitely so I do not anticipate a short term profit
    • I anticipate having to roll the trade at beginning of Q1 next year when new options series begin trading

    EWI

    • I have been bearish on Italy for months, their credit situation is a night mare, looking like a repeat of the cypress fiasco potentially
    • Moody's rating of BBB for the country's credit is absurd, but well timed on their part amid demands from the Bundesbank
    • Italy needs to devalue their currency and cannot due to being on the Euro
    • I am the 20/19 debit put spread but am anticipating closing the trade at a loss
    submitted by /u/the_life_is_good
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    Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here

    Posted: 02 Nov 2018 05:04 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or anything similar. There is no single answer to this question, but we will also need A LOT MORE information if we are to give some sort of answer

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive girlfriend? (not really an asset)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Newell Brands (NWL) released Q3 earnings

    Posted: 02 Nov 2018 05:02 AM PDT

    http://s1.q4cdn.com/122517005/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2018/q3/Q3-2018-Earnings-Release-and-Financials.pdf

    The rundown(2018/2017):

    -Net sales: $2.3B/$2.5B

    -Core sales from continuing operations: Decreased 4%

    -Goodwill: $8.1B non-cash impairment charge due to the declining market cap of the company and the reduced value of trade names, also buying Jarden really fucked them up.

    -Operating margin: 13.0%/12.9%

    -Diluted earnings per share: $0.81/$0.86

    -Operating cash flow:$572M/$183M due to working capital initiatives

    -Reduced debt by $890M to $9.6B, dedicated $511M to buybacks and $107M to dividends

    -Gross margin: 35.9%/35.1%

    Segments

    -Food and Appliances: $722M/$815M

    -Home and Outdoor Living: $727M/$780M

    -Learning and Development: $829M/863M

    I'm a shareholder and I'm so unsurprised at these numbers quite honestly except for their debt payments being progressive. They've paid down a big chunk of their debt, I'd like to see them dedicate less money to their share buybacks and focus on paying down their debt. Their goodwill write off is disappointing because they overpaid something fierce for Jarden and they're trying to right it by selling off portions (they're nearing a deal with selling Jostens for $1.3B, which will apparently go to paying off their debt). Some of their financial moments come from the new revenue recognition standards, losing distributors for Coleman and losing Toys R Us, which accounted for $55M of their sales last year. Yankee Candle is struggling in Europe and they're losing money in foreign currency. Their operating cash flow has increased substantially, which I like to see, and that management is confident enough to spend that much money in buying back shares, to me, is a sign of confident, albeit inept, leadership. In any event, as a shareholder, the $8.1B impairment hurts something fierce. This is the first time I'm sitting down and trying to process all of this stuff. What do you think of these results?

    submitted by /u/howtoreadspaghetti
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    Watchlist opinions

    Posted: 02 Nov 2018 04:22 AM PDT

    Hi Guys, this is my current watch list (US Stocks). If anyone is watching the same stocks or has a general opinion let me know why they attract your interest

    • Bank of Ozark (OZK)
    • Micron Technology (MU)
    • Eastman Chemical Co. (EMN)
    • Thor Industries Inc. (THO)
    • Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)
    • ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN)
    • Mohawk Industries Inc. (MHK)
    • Valero Energy Corp. (VLO)
    • Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. (DKS)
    submitted by /u/tristanwaine
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    BackDoor roth conversion 401k when FEIE in a low income year.

    Posted: 02 Nov 2018 03:26 AM PDT

    I have large chunk of money in 401k that i'd like to convert to back door roth. Anyone have insights on how this works as expat subject to FEIE when taking a break (aka low income) between jobs?

    submitted by /u/papiavagina
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    Companies currently involved in SEC investigations or lawsuits

    Posted: 01 Nov 2018 08:32 PM PDT

    Are there any databases out there where I can find companies that are currently being investigated by the SEC or that have lawsuits open against them? Or do I simply need to sift through a bunch of filings?

    submitted by /u/V3yhron
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    "Falling knives" trading stats

    Posted: 01 Nov 2018 01:40 PM PDT

    Among the few others in this forum who both trade actively and play "catch a falling knife", what stats do you use to measure the quality of your decisions and how do those look at the moment?

    The "decision quality" stats I like most are to look at the performance (up to today) after I sold of every lot I sold (even though post sale performance doesn't affect my balance) and compare that to performance of every lot I bought (independent of whether I still own it).

    As of end of Oct, those stats looked rotten for the sum of Sep and Oct. I sold a bit more than I bought in Sep and the things I sold in Sep were on average down a bit more than the things I bought were down (so Sep was retroactively OK but not exciting). The few things I sold in Oct were down far more than the many things I bought. But overall, the fact that I bought so much more in Oct than I sold brought the whole trading quality stat to negative.

    But I keep those stats for any month always changing because they are performance ever since (one end in the month being measured and the other end permanently open), and the "falling knives" I bought in Oct did great today.

    The stuff I bought in Sep ended today down 7.1% from purchase date, while the slightly larger amount I sold in Sep ended today down 10% from sale date (so correct on selling more than I bought and correct on buying stocks that didn't do as badly as those I sold).

    The mere 4 lots I sold in Oct are now down 4.4% from when I sold. But the big flip is that the 26 lots (5.4 times the dollar total that I sold) are now up 1.3% from purchase. So (viewed just from this moment in time) great decision quality because what I sold went on to do so much worse than what I bought.

    Obviously, these stats change every market day forever. So just as today flipped those stats from rotten to good, tomorrow could flip them the other way. But longer term, my choices of what to trade seem to be good.

    submitted by /u/jsf67
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    Trump Asks Cabinet to Draft Possible Trade Deal With China

    Posted: 01 Nov 2018 10:16 PM PDT

    Buy AAPL at open tomorrow?

    Posted: 01 Nov 2018 08:00 PM PDT

    What do you guys think will happen tomorrow with AAPL? Will it still go down after open? I feel like it got beaten down too much after earnings, should I wait till Monday to see what happens, or jump in as soon as possible?

    submitted by /u/etienneclerc1997
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    Easy way to compare share price and NAV across multiple ETFs?

    Posted: 01 Nov 2018 09:54 PM PDT

    I have been trying to find a screener that can search ETF share price and its NAV. Not looking for % change in either, just the ratio of the two. Yahoo lists both for any ETF, but doesn't seem to have an easy way to do it across multiple ETFs or all ETFs. Thanks.

    submitted by /u/psychemagic
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    Swing Trading Question, Any Help Appreciated

    Posted: 01 Nov 2018 09:28 PM PDT

    I've been looking into swing trading and I really like the active trading aspect of it.

    For those who do swing trade, I was wondering do you stick with a handful of stocks that you watch carefully to enter and exit or do you use a screener to find the stocks that are ripe for swing trading? Also generally how long do you swing traders find yourselves holding for before your strategy tells you to exit?

    The way I understand it is that you want to be watching a few stocks for the perfect moment to enter based your strategy. Please correct me if I am wrong, and any advice would be greatly appreciated!

    submitted by /u/K_fC
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