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    Monday, October 29, 2018

    Everyone asks about 2008, but what was it like being an investor on 9/11 and the time until markets re-opened? Investing

    Everyone asks about 2008, but what was it like being an investor on 9/11 and the time until markets re-opened? Investing


    Everyone asks about 2008, but what was it like being an investor on 9/11 and the time until markets re-opened?

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 08:59 AM PDT

    IBM nears deal to acquire Raleigh NC based software maker Red Hat. Red Hat Inc. has $20.5B market valuation

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 11:09 AM PDT

    Are you 90% convinced the Stock Market will come back to even and beyond after a bear market (stock market crash)?

    Posted: 29 Oct 2018 12:38 AM PDT

    The stock market always comes back to even and then moves up from there, after a bear market.

    I have read a version of this statement over and over on financial message boards and articles about investing.

    Yes, in the past the stock market always came back but are you at least 90% convinced that this will happen after the next bear market (stock market crash)? Maybe it will just sit there for years and years at the low number. Or it will continue to fall. Just because the market came back in the past does not mean it will in the future.

    Maybe that 3.5% CD I saw advertised may be a good idea after all!

    A continued bad stock market was a overwhelming fear by early 2009. By February 2009, the stock market had dropped 56% and there was really no sign it would ever go up again. This was after a really bad period from September 2008-to February 2009 when the stock market dropped 45% in just 5 months. If you asked most people in February 2009 if the stock market would come back, like it always did, they would have said no.

    What will people think about the stock market going back up after the crash of late 2019 when the market drops 60% due to a global recession and trade war? Your thoughts?

    submitted by /u/KillingTime56
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    IBM announces it will acquire Red Hat

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 11:50 AM PDT

    Where would I be able to access Stock Buyback Announcement Historic Dates?

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 11:26 PM PDT

    I'm doing a research paper and kind of having an issue with data collection. So I'm looking for a list of historic dates where companies announce stock buyback programs. I know there are some websites that exist but they only go back til the start of this year. Would appreciate any help on where to look. I scoured WSJ, Thomas Reuters and Bloomberg with no help.

    submitted by /u/biglegproblem
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    China tariff effects started showing up in shipping data months ago

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 01:41 PM PDT

    China's latest report on economic growth fell short of expectations, but for those who monitor traffic on the global water highways, the news was not a surprise.

    In fact, freight and shipping data over the last several months have been pointing to such a slowdown.

    An investor can get an idea of a country's economic health based on the types of products and the number of containers being shipped to and from its ports at any given time. About 90 percent of the world's trade in goods is transported in containers on ships across oceans, making maritime activity a key economic indicator. It is also an important indicator for companies like Walmart, the giant retailer that depends on shipping the products it sells from overseas.

    A previous economic slowdown in China started showing up in the shipping data six months before other people noticed, said Gerry Wang, the co-founder and former CEO of Seaspan (SSW), the world's largest container shipowner. In a 2012 interview, he said his business had a unique window on global economic activity. "We are involved in everything from commodity trades, manufacturing and consumption," he said then. "Our volume is 200 times more than parcel carriers FedEx, DHL or UPS. Ninety-nine percent of all the goods you see at Walmart are shipped via container ship." The Trump administration's tariffs on $34 billion in Chinese goods went into effect in July. For weeks before that, there was a huge push to import products ahead of the tariffs. Container trade between China and the U.S. from April through June grew 10 percent year over year based on Accenture's analysis of the Department of Commerce import and export data.

    This was the container trade in the commodities on the list of tariffs that went live in July.

    According to the Seabury Global Ocean Trade Database, import volumes dropped significantly after additional tariffs were imposed. U.S. imports of Chinese steel and aluminum dropped 53 percent after tariffs on those products went into effect in March compared to March 2017, and imports on the $34 billion of Chinese goods dropped 21 percent since the July tariffs went into effect compared to the prior year.

    Data are still pending on imports of the $16 billion in Chinese goods subject to tariffs as of August and another $200 billion of goods as of September.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/26/china-tariff-effects-started-showing-up-in-shipping-data-months-ago.html

    submitted by /u/NineteenEighty9
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    The U.S. Secretly Halted JPMorgan’s Growth for Years

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 08:28 PM PDT

    Places/sites where we can find investor for esports idea

    Posted: 29 Oct 2018 03:45 AM PDT

    Hi.

    Where can we find (international) investor for our esports AI idea? We made business plan, prototype will be soon made.

    I found two Slovenian websites for investors, but we still want to find other places, because our team is international. Two of us are from Slovenia and one guy is from Thailand.

    I would be really glad if you could link some websites or just give me suggestions where to find investors.

    Thank you in advance!

    submitted by /u/Pandora_aa
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    What's the best way of monitoring maritime/trucking/trade activity outside a company's quarterly reports?

    Posted: 29 Oct 2018 03:41 AM PDT

    inspired by this post.

    Preferably free but if it's only available paid-for let us know.

    submitted by /u/GreyscaleSunset
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    "A Total Rethinking of Tencent's Strategy"

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 03:33 PM PDT

    On Twitter, I came across this recent essay on 'Tencent + AI Strategy' that's viral in China.

    Excerpt: "Tencent is now fighting major wars on two fronts: one is with Alibaba (of course, the war with Alibaba is far from just this front) in the new retail field, and another is with Douyin in the content field. I read a lot of analysis articles and felt that they all didn't discuss the most important points: the essence of these two wars is the battle of data and algorithms! Alibaba is relying on the retail industry's entire industry chain of data and corresponding algorithms and Toutiao is relying on the content industry's data and corresponding algorithms to fight hand-to-hand with the middle-aged penguin who has put on weight. Tencent's data strength is very strong, but unfortunately it is not used well, and its algorithms have not made breakthroughs to this point. As an ironclad fan of Pony, taking it all in, I am anxious in my mind and heart."

    As a Westerner with an 'outside' perspective, I've been watching Tencent closely for near a decade (I remember in 2010 when they were offering 1TB of cloud storage for free, a massive amount at the time), but I'm aware that as a Westerner it's hard for me to fully understand the company, its context, its goals, and the Chinese business environment (just as I'm sure harder for native Chinese to understand the American business landscape). I found this essay extremely informative on multiple levels and thought I'd share.

    All credit to the original tweet by which I discovered this essay.

    submitted by /u/TipasaNuptials
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    Most important metrics?

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 01:57 PM PDT

    What are the most important metrics to look at when analyzing a security?

    submitted by /u/dyskreete
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    Is 80/20 SPY/TLT a good medium term investment portfolio?

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 04:39 PM PDT

    Would this suffer in a rising interest rate environment?

    submitted by /u/BallActTx
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    Will you expect IBM stock to increase today during opening?

    Posted: 29 Oct 2018 02:01 AM PDT

    Or will it continue to go down? Thinking of buying

    Also is there some website where I can check daily which lets us know the chances of an increase for each company stock?

    submitted by /u/Frinkonium
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    “The investor’s chief problem—and even his worst enemy—is likely to be himself.” – #Graham

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 02:04 PM PDT

    Do you believe in behavioral finance ?

    submitted by /u/ikramallah
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    How do you think the market will react to midterm results?

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 11:40 AM PDT

    The consensus I was able to see around the net seems to be that the market either doesn't care too much about elections, or that as the results become known, uncertainty reduces and so the markets become a little more optimistic.

    What do you think? Is the above picture really true? What a specific result - Dem/Republican - give a specific outcome?

    Lastly, what is your strategy around election day - keep on the same, or do you see an opportunity?

    submitted by /u/boosoft
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    Can someone help me understand EPS and why it is so important?

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 07:09 PM PDT

    Title, I recently took part in a stock trading competition and I couldn't understand EPS meant when it is so detrimental

    submitted by /u/Dhrufi
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    Similar Vanguard Funds to VPCCX or VDIGX

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 02:13 PM PDT

    Two popular funds that I like. Unfortunately, they are both closed due to their popularity. I don't have any shares for either one. Is there any other Vanguard fund that is similar to these? Thanks.

    submitted by /u/Eudreamality
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    Why add international mix into portfolio?

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 11:33 AM PDT

    Hi all, I'm planning to start the portfolio that's 80% S&P 500 20% intermediate-term corporate bonds. This is all related to ETFs. Why should I consider mixing in international stocks and international bonds, and what percentage? Doing the back test reveals that domestic Focus was higher return

    submitted by /u/BallActTx
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    Evaluating Total Return of S&P 500 vs S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 03:01 PM PDT

    Heya Investors of Reddit, I could use a little help.

    I've found a few articles making the statement that the S&P 500 is consistently outperformed by the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats once reinvestment of dividends is taken into account (i.e. total returns instead of market price).

    I'm having trouble corroborating the data though. Firstly, I'm having a really hard time finding total return charts: I've had to use morningstar for funds and a 7 day demo account at ycharts for indicies (and apparently data only goes back 5 years?). Second, when I do graph total returns I'm getting much different results than what's portrayed in those articles.

    https://ibb.co/mE8KgV

    I've spent a couple evenings digging at this without much progress so I'm wondering if anyone here has some insights to help me along.

    Is my data bad? Is there a solid source of total return data for indicies? Is there another way I should be evaluating this investment strategy?

    submitted by /u/pm_bitcoin_please
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    What's a good news source for investing? I'm new but can pick up very fast.

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 12:58 PM PDT

    Does getting a loan from the bank and putting it into an index fund, make financial sense?

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 08:04 PM PDT

    If someone takes out a loan of X amount of money from the bank at 6% interest rate and puts it into an index fund such as the Vanguard S&P 500 that has an average of 11.7% return since 1976, then technically, barring a financial disaster (stock market crash, but is highly unlikely) you could essentially make money and not do anything. In theory this makes sense, so why don't all people do this?

    submitted by /u/ghostzfh
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    Anyone have any experience with Swap based ETF's? Do the risks make it not worth it?

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 10:11 AM PDT

    So I'm a US citizen who is based in the UK for work and am likely to be here for quite some time (10 years or more). Aside from my UK retirement accounts, I add to a brokerage account each month in the US and strongly prefer to keep the bulk of my wealth in the US as that is where I expect to end up long term. My taxable portfolio is currently quite small at roughly $40k and presently sits in VTI, VXUS, BND, and BNDX.

    Here is where it gets messy. I have been advised of my UK tax obligations which go a lot further than I thought they do. Essentially, so long as I live here Her Majesty expects that I will pay UK taxes on any dividends or other income I receive in the US, regardless of whether that is brought into the UK. I expected to continue to add to this portfolio while here and that means that I will now need to pay UK tax on my ETF's dividend payments. Because the UK dividend tax rate is over 30%, my US tax payments will not cover it and I will need to cut a separate check to the UK tax authorities for another 15% and my portfolio will take a beating. This is above and beyond the 45% I already pay in UK taxes for my ordinary income.

    This has led me to try and find ETF's where there is no dividend income and I came across "Swap based ETF's", which attempt to mimic the returns of an index without paying dividends. They rely on arrangements with financial institutions (usually banks) to pay a specific return and so there is risk that those institutions default, but I am curious if anyone here has experience with them. Have you used swap based ETF's? Are there other instruments that can help avoid the taxable event of dividends while keeping me well diversified? Many thanks,

    submitted by /u/PM_ME_UR_LADY_ANUS
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    Many calling for a bounce next week, but we have a major problem - We haven't give a name for this correction yet

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 06:22 PM PDT

    There are so many traders/experts calling for a bounce next week or the correction ending in Nov. However, there is a major issue here, we don't know whats really behind this selloff. For the past 10 years since 2008, we had breixt selloff, China 2015 Aug meltdown fresh crash, Feb 2018 Vol explosion.... etc. We knew the cause of the selloff almost at the first week when it started. I monitor more than a donze of indicators, even more than half are trending down, but just not enough to trigger selloff like this. Yes we knew Fed's language change, its huge. but the capital is actually pretty confusing. The junk bonds are doing bad, but not too bad. Credit market is awful, Bond market overall is not so bad either. Midterm election/buyback share blackout period? They both start to end or ended in first week in Nov. Why ppl are dumping shares so bad when they knew the market is coming back up right afterward. It doesnt make sense. I don't want to talk about the data or TA here to debate with you guys. None of MSM or experts are clear define why this is happening. This is bad news. The correction have started a few weeks we know nothing yet. Fed and election are not major catalyst for this correction, what is it? I understand there are many bearish data out there, but they are not bad enough to trigger a sellout like hundreds points a day. They are selling on every bounce and rallies.

    I believe until we know whats the real reason behind this correction, it will continue regardless of any short term relief.

    For all the past correction, we knew when it is about to stop, for example, the expert who trades Vol, they knew when the excessives will sort out and game back to normal. I found nothing in the media or from the experts, even the bearish, doom experts dont have anything can convince me, they just repeat what they have saying.

    Hope to hear some good and serious insights from you guys.

    submitted by /u/alexmark002
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    Invest right now or wait for early next year?

    Posted: 28 Oct 2018 02:33 PM PDT

    There seems to be a lot of uncertainty right now, especially with the elections, and the rapid market swings of the past few week. If you had a relatively large amount of cash to commit long-term, would you wait for the uncertainty to resolve itself?

    From all I'm reading, things should stabilize after the election, and there's a typical stock rally at the beginning of the year. So waiting for January seems sensible.

    What do you think?

    submitted by /u/CautiousInvestor
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