Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Friday - Aug 31, 2018 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion Friday - Aug 31, 2018
- Just bought $500,000 worth of EA. Here's why.
- Asian stocks closed lower following comments by President Trump that he will increase pressure on China
- Selling at +100%
- Five under-the-radar U.S. tech giants padding investors' portfolios
- Best Websites to track Stock Upgrades/Downgrades, Price Targets, etc?
- As Tesla shares fall, Amazon takes over as most shorted U.S. stock
- Investing in Marijuana
- I want to invest in LI (LITIUM) because of electric cars
- Up 1,030% on 100 shares of TSLA. Thinking of selling 40 shares and letting the rest ride. Thoughts?
- Roth IRA or individual brokerage?
- Visa shares maturing?
- Does AMAT have a catalyst?
- We’re shorting Square (SQ) and you should too
- RAD Rite Aid
- Lyft in talks of possible IPO in 2019
- Best current trackers/apps to monitor stock portfolio
- Is MDXG a buy?
- Coca Cola acquires Costa thoughts?
- LULU overvalued?
- Attu stock
- Sell now buy later at higher price?
- Whats your favorite, AAPL or DIS?
- Is the run for AAXN over?
- Time to buy Dollar Tree (DLTR)?
- Global Stocks in the red heading into Labor Day weekend holiday
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion Friday - Aug 31, 2018 Posted: 31 Aug 2018 04:08 AM PDT These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday and Friday's will stay up till Monday. Some helpful links:
If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky. or see past portfolio discussions with this link. See past daily discussions here. And use this link to see past stock options discussions here. [link] [comments]  |
| Just bought $500,000 worth of EA. Here's why. Posted: 31 Aug 2018 11:05 AM PDT I just bought $500,000 shares worth of EA, after this recent dip. Why? EA has consistently been profitable these past quarters, and only has room to grow. Nobody is going to stop playing video games, or mobile games for that matter. Like Facebook, the backlash EA is suffering from the recent drama is temporary. People are addicted to video games, and EA will keep making money. As a result, this has been a perfect buying opportunity. Personally, I think EA is going to $100b market cap, or worth $300 a share. Proof: https://imgur.com/a/A0PjLD0 Edit: THANKs for the gold!! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2018 05:46 AM PDT Japanese Market
Chinese Market
Australian Market
Indian Market
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| Posted: 31 Aug 2018 09:57 AM PDT I'm new to investing so go easy on me, just wondering if this is a wise move. I invested $5k in a bundle of stocks about 4 months ago and they have appreciated 100% since then. My plan is to continue to build wealth because I only transfer $800/month into my brokerage account. So should I sell my current positions and then reinvest $10k in a few different stocks? Or, sell half and then diversify? [link] [comments]  |
| Five under-the-radar U.S. tech giants padding investors' portfolios Posted: 31 Aug 2018 08:55 AM PDT Five under-the-radar U.S. tech giants padding investors' portfolios Spoiler: TEAM, ANET, SQ, WDAY, NTAP Not sure if SQ can be considered under the radar though. [link] [comments]  |
| Best Websites to track Stock Upgrades/Downgrades, Price Targets, etc? Posted: 31 Aug 2018 08:53 AM PDT Hey all, I'm looking for a good free website where I can plug in stocks I'm looking to buy and seeing how each of them are rated either upgraded or downgraded, strong buy, buy, sell, strong sell, etc. A website that tracks how JP Morgan and other places grade the stocks and provide price targets. King of an all in one shopping. Any suggestions would be great. Thank you. (New to investing) [link] [comments]  |
| As Tesla shares fall, Amazon takes over as most shorted U.S. stock Posted: 30 Aug 2018 04:20 PM PDT Fair comparison? Or is it misleading to compare the absolute value of all short positions rather than the percentage of the stock float that is sold short? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2018 10:07 AM PDT What do people think about the other players in the marijuana industry. Specifically Aurora Cannabis (ACBFF) and Coronos Group Inc. (CRON). Is it worth investing in then or better to put my money in Canopy Growth Corp (CBC)? [link] [comments]  |
| I want to invest in LI (LITIUM) because of electric cars Posted: 31 Aug 2018 09:37 AM PDT I want to invest in Litium (mining stocks, ETFs) but I don't know if it is a good idea as seen that some other materials may came and to be better than Litium in EVERYTHING ( electric storage, conductivity, semi-conductivity, and so on..) Will be the Litium the only material used for eletric veicles, so we can speculate on it, or other materials will replace it? comment [link] [comments]  |
| Up 1,030% on 100 shares of TSLA. Thinking of selling 40 shares and letting the rest ride. Thoughts? Posted: 31 Aug 2018 11:48 AM PDT Basically the title. Bought in years ago at $26, now thinking it's time to lock in gains while maintaining exposure in case anything fun happens. The fundamentals just aren't there and I don't want to kick myself in the future for knowing that and not selling high. What am I leaving out? [link] [comments]  |
| Roth IRA or individual brokerage? Posted: 31 Aug 2018 12:27 PM PDT I am new to investing and currently have an individual brokerage account but want to set up an IRA. Is Roth the best way to go about this? And if so, can I not touch this money till I am 62? Any help is greatly appreciated! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2018 01:01 PM PDT Just got a message that my Visa shares matured yesterday and that my account will be credited Monday. What does that meeeean tho? Am I getting cashed out? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2018 12:58 PM PDT So...lets just say I have some heavy heavy bags that are expiring 1/18/19. Trying to work out a little bit of DD, I know the correlation coefficient for AMAT and MU is pretty good, but so far I have not seen AMAT get any of the juice MU has enjoyed this week. Not so sure that if MU runs up into ER that AMAT will follow. Another potential scenario is MU gives a rosey outlook for semi AND beats ER/great guidence...but we know that won't happen. Anyway, I'm wondering if there are any potential catalysts I am missing. Investor conferences, acts of god, acts of extreme autism, etc. Someone plz hold me and tell me it will all be OK [link] [comments]  |
| We’re shorting Square (SQ) and you should too Posted: 31 Aug 2018 12:56 PM PDT Description Square (SQ) is a payment processor which caters to small businesses. At $88.00 we think SQ has 65% downside to fair value of $36.00. The basic premise of the short thesis is: FDC is the industry giant with close to 40% market share, over the past 18 months they have put a ton of resources behind their Clover product which is aimed directly at SQ, it is currently growing 50% and is on pace to be a larger business than SQ by 2020. Additionally, they have finally gotten their act together with digital customer onboarding (SQ's primary early competitive edge) and will launch the capabilities through their massive distribution channel starting in the 2H 2018. Odds are slim that this will not impact SQ competitively and slow their growth rate. SQ's core payment processing business growth has in fact already slowed and accelerating top line growth is being driven by more cyclical and risky businesses such as short term working capital loans (Instant Deposit) and lending origination (Square Capital). As a point of reference, Square does not control underwriting for their Square Capital product, if banks decided to stop lending to their micro merchants and originations dried up it would take EBIT down by about 35%. SQ's customers are by far the most exposed to any kind of economic downturn, close to 60% do less than $125k in volume every year and close to 85% do less than $500k. Given the above points SQ's valuation is absurd. It trades at close to 20x sales and 68x EBITDA. This is even more disgusting given that of the $245M of EBITDA the street is expecting this year about $215M will be stock comp which everyone is happy to back out (the share count was 360m in 2016 and it will end this year at 480m). Our fair value target is 30x our 2020 eps estimate of $1.20. Our estimates assume continued strong growth in both processing and services with steady economic growth, should a recession occur there would be significant downside to our estimates/target. First Data As mentioned above, FDC is the 800lb gorilla in the industry. We think SQ has been a benefactor of the issues FDC has been having in their bank JV channel for the past 18 months or so stemming mostly from WFC's branch commission scandal. The JV channel was always a crown jewel for FDC because anyone who walked into a major bank to apply for a small business loan would have the processing relationship jammed in their face upon closing the deal. Starting in Q4 of 2017 the leads generated from this channel flattened out after declining by roughly 20% and it feels like the bottom has been reached, as the banks start generating more leads its reasonable to assume some portion would be at SQ's expense. SQ's early competitive edge was digital onboarding. It takes 10 minutes and can be done without assistance. Expenses are lower and the customer doesn't have to deal with greasy salespeople. Until now FDC had been way behind the curve but starting in the 2H of this year they will roll it out across all channels. This is particularly important in the JV channel given their bank partners have a combined 6m small business accounts. At current run rate SQ will do about $80B in GPV for 2018 its growth rate will be around 30%. Over the same time period FDC's Clover will do $60B in GPV and growth 50% or so. Clover is a direct competitor to SQ and industry chatter on the platform is increasingly positive. We think that if nothing else this shows that SQ does not have a "moat" and the payments processing industry is mature and quite competitive. SQ's valuation suggests it's business model is unique and difficult to replicate, Clover's success and growth indicates the opposite. Square Capital and Instant Deposit Another reason SQ gets such a fancy multiple is because investors are excited about the accelerating revenue growth rate driven by the "Subscription and Services-Based" segment. This accounts for 33% of the total business and grew 98% y/y in Q1. About 65% of this segment is Square Capital and Instant Deposit and the remaining 35% other odds and ends with the largest chunk being their restaurant delivery service Caviar. While the growth is both real and impressive we don't think investors are baking in the cyclical risks of the lending businesses. The risks to Square Capital are pretty obvious. Banks originate the loans and SQ takes 8-15% off the top. No originations = no revenue and its basically pure profit. We believe this will be $70m in revs/EBIT this year. Instant Deposit has been the major growth engine for the past 12 months. In 2016 it didn't exist and this year it will likely be a $180M business. Merchants get charged a 1% for instant settlement of funds versus the standard T+3. First of all this is very expensive, PYPL does it for a $0.25 flat fee and larger banks do it for free. So why does SQ get this? Our guess would be that nobody else wants to extend credit to these merchants. SQ claims the risk is minimal because payments are taken directly out of the merchant's gross receipts, however, there is nothing to stop them from abandoning their terminal if business gets tough. The company has always said a lot of their customers didn't take cards before signing up, so there isn't a lot stopping them from going back to cash. This will be about $190m of revs this year with high contribution margins. Valuation On a day to day basis SQ seems to want to trade with the FANG complex and it wears a valuation to match that characterization trading at close to 20x sales. Our issue is that there is nothing recurring about the business model, attrition is close to 20% annually, and their customers will be the first to fold in a downturn. We think its true comps are FDC/WP/GPN which trade at between 12-19x forward earnings. SQ deserves a premium due to its growth rate so we think 30x 2020 eps is reasonable. I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy. I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities. Catalyst core revenue growth continues to slow investors catch on to the nature of Instant Deposit/Square Capital's cyclicality the FANG complex comes back down to earth [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2018 10:26 AM PDT Glanced at it during lunch and wanted to dive into it this weekend. Anyone done any DD? Quick glance it's trading well below book value but has a terrible CEO and a reasonable amount of debt. [link] [comments]  |
| Lyft in talks of possible IPO in 2019 Posted: 30 Aug 2018 11:18 PM PDT What are your thoughts? How does this effect Uber's plans? And what current stocks do you see being most impacted? [link] [comments]  |
| Best current trackers/apps to monitor stock portfolio Posted: 31 Aug 2018 10:36 AM PDT Ideally if it covers stocks as well as ETF's What are people's best recommendations. Clean UI, nice charts [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2018 01:39 PM PDT Speaking in terms of a long term investment. It's down 68% in the past year but only 16% in the past 5. Opinions on its ability to get near its price at the start of 2018? [link] [comments]  |
| Coca Cola acquires Costa thoughts? Posted: 31 Aug 2018 01:34 PM PDT |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2018 09:30 AM PDT Is it really worth it 160 when it was below 50 lats year? PS of 6 , P/E of 50 and they sell yoga pants ? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2018 06:21 AM PDT What is your opinion on the stock guys? It's increased a lot over the past year but it's looking good and I think it has a lot more room to grow [link] [comments]  |
| Sell now buy later at higher price? Posted: 31 Aug 2018 07:10 AM PDT Hi everyone. I'm looking for post-hoc justification for my decisions lol (not really, I do want to ask about this) My question is this. When you invested a stock when it was sold at a very cheap price.... Do you sell it, take profits, then rebuy again even if it is at a higher price? I feel sometimes if I don't sell and rebuy, what happens is the stock will fall back close to the amount I originally bought it at. Pretty much I was hoping some bad news would drive a particular stock down further: CRON. I was hoping it would go down further because ir slid down drastically the other day. I was hoping others would follow the panic and drive ir further down. I noticed that there was an article today that basically dismissed all the points about the negative article published prior. Basically it was a temporary dip. So today its back up again. I originally bought it at an avg of 10 dollars, sold it at 11.67 and rebought at 12.45. Dumbest move I have ever done. Pretty much I wish I just held onto this particular stock longer. In the past this has worked for me, but today I bought it at a higher price. Ugh.... [link] [comments]  |
| Whats your favorite, AAPL or DIS? Posted: 31 Aug 2018 10:36 AM PDT Like an idiot i sold some shares of AAPL around $185 and am regretting it right now. I got DIS recently because of the Fox merger and am wondering if I should dump them to get back in with AAPL. Whats your opinion? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2018 09:56 AM PDT How do you feel about this stock for the next 1-3 years? Our local municipality is investing more in their products, specifically body cams. Is it worth investing after their near 300% gain in 2018? [link] [comments]  |
| Time to buy Dollar Tree (DLTR)? Posted: 30 Aug 2018 10:30 PM PDT Dropped 15% today, interesting in buying since I think it was oversold for missing a cent on eps. Curious to hear what others think [link] [comments]  |
| Global Stocks in the red heading into Labor Day weekend holiday Posted: 31 Aug 2018 05:31 AM PDT US Stocks
Stocks Trending in the NewsClick name for Q-Factor score and financial data.
European Stocks
Asian Stocks
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