Stock Market - Retail Breaks Out to New Highs |
- Retail Breaks Out to New Highs
- Significant Insider Trading Activity (Last 7 Days)
- what do you all think about cummins?
- samsung is looking like it's about to take a hit
- Corporate buybacks are the only thing keeping the stock market afloat
- Morning Global Highlights
- What free resources are available for a complete newb to trading ?
- Is time for MSC Industrial Direct to recover?
- Significant Activist Hedge Fund Activity (Last 7 Days)
- Can I start to learn the market if I can't react during the day?
- Resources
- Tips
- Help
| Retail Breaks Out to New Highs Posted: 02 Jul 2018 12:39 PM PDT Key Points
Consumer Sentiment Near Expansion HighsInvestor sentiment around the retail sector has been low in recent years, as many investors feared that Amazon and other internet companies are hurting big names like JC Penny's and Sears. While these two company stocks look dismal, to say the least, the retail sector, as told by XRT, has recently broken out to new highs. In this blog we analyze the retail sector of the stock market/economy using technical and economic analysis. The XRT ETF has made new highs and broken out of a range that initially peaked in 2015. Is there a revival in the retail sector? Economic Boosts for ConsumersRetail revolves around the consumer. The tax cuts this year should help retail companies in two ways. First, they can help their balance sheet, as less costs will make these companies stronger. More importantly, it should also help increase discretionary spending by consumers, because they should have more cash in their wallets. Also, the lowering unemployment rate means there are more people able to consume. Rising employment tells us two things. One, employers are busy enough to need more employees, and two there is more money circulating in the economic system. Both are important to the retail sector. These economic boosts have led to high consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment indicator is a monthly survey designed to measure how consumers are feeling about present and future economic conditions. When sentiment is high, consumers are more likely to spend discretionary money. Discretionary money is the extra cash consumers have after paying for their more necessary items. Tax cuts and jobs have increased the amount of discretionary within the economy, and it has pushed up overall sentiment. People are more likely to spend discretionary cash when sentiment is high because they feel that the economy is strong, and their jobs safe; they do not need to worry as much about the future. Therefore, they do not need/want to save as much, and they can spend some extra money on new shoes, a new dress, or that fancy watch they have had their eye on. A Broader Sector: Consumer DiscretionaryBefore looking directly at the retail sector, we look at the broader consumer discretionary sector. XLY – the Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF – is one of three main sector ETFs to make new highs after January. The only other sectors are energy and technology. With the market struggling the way they are, consumer discretionary stocks are some of the bright spots. Like the retail sector, discretionary stocks have seen some benefits from the current economic environment, and they make them a prime target for investors. Breaking Down the ETFWhile XRT holds stocks like JC Penny's (JCP), which is down more than -33% year-to-date (YTD), there are some surprises from stocks like Macy's (M), which is up more than 48%. YTD. Something that has helped the sector is high short interest in retail stocks. Investors have dubbed a "retail apocalypse." The internet has not been kind to retailers and their stores. Now that consumers can find products with ease, and it is shipped directly to their homes, they no longer shop at actual brick and mortar stores. This has led many investors to short sell retail stocks. So, when earnings surprises happen, and there is high short interest, short sellers buy back shares and quickly push prices higher. Surprises from stocks like Kohl's and Macy's have helped the ETF to breakout to new highs. However, the ETF also holds a couple technology/retail stocks that have really supported the sector. Amazon (AMZN, +40% YTD) and Netflix (NFLX, +90% YTD) are two FAANG stocks contained within the index. These stocks have performed phenomenally over the last few years, but I have my doubts about their sustainability. Risks to the SectorThe biggest risk to the sector is a trade war. Many retail items are imported from other countries where labor is much cheaper. Tariffs and trade wars will ultimately hurt the sector as costs are raised on their items. This will hurt margins, and their balance sheets will weaken. Additionally, tariffs and trade wars will also hurt consumers and consumer sentiment. When prices are rising, and jobs are moving overseas, or people are being laid off because of trade disputes, it will ultimately hurt the economy and the likelihood of extra spending at the store. Consumers won't want to spend the extra money to buy something they don't really need if they are concerned or uncertain about the future of the economy. ConclusionOverall, this breakout is doubtful. The stocks contained within the ETF are all over the spectrum of returns. JCP is down more than 30%, but stocks like M and AMZN are up more than 40%. From an economic standpoint it is hard to see retail and the economy getting much better from here. We are in the later end of the expansion cycle, and the current trade rhetoric can have lasting damage on the economy, especially if we move into a full blown trade war. Lastly, Nike (NKE) reported earnings on June 28, and the stock closed the next day up over 11.5%. Executives from this apparel company offered a great outlook and surprising Q4 numbers, propelling the Dow Jones Industrial Stock higher. One reason the company has performed so well is because they are bypassing retail stores, and going direct to consumer. This is a trend that has been shifting the retail sector for many years, and one of the reasons for the so called apocalypse. More and more companies are launching their own retail channels and websites where they can deal directly to consumers, and skip the middle man. This is not a good trend for retailers. The Trade SetupFor the trade, you will want to look for the signs of a strong breakout in the ETF. You will want to look to enter the stock around $50.50, which is a 3% buffer above the resistance line. This will help determine that the breakout is real, and not just part of normal volatility. Your stop should be placed just below the resistance line. That way, you are prepared to sell if the breakout fails. Read the full blog with charts here: https://www.brtechnicals.com/retail-sector-breaks-out-to-new-highs/ [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Significant Insider Trading Activity (Last 7 Days) Posted: 02 Jul 2018 12:17 AM PDT This is a list of the top 20 companies that experienced the largest change in insider shares in the last seven (7) days. The SEC defines an insider as any officer, director or 10% shareholder. It is not illegal for these people to buy or sell their own shares. In fact, since most of them get paid in stock options, it is expected. However, it is illegal for them to trade on inside information that has not been made public. So for example if there are drug trial results that are bad and not public, insiders cannot dump shares. That said, many people have observed that insiders - in general - seem to have a good track record at timing their purchases. All trades that are marked as part of a 10b5 plan are excluded from this report. Largest Insider Buying (Last 7 Days)Largest Insider Selling (Last 7 Days)
Count column is number of transactions. Source: Fintel.io/insiders [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| what do you all think about cummins? Posted: 02 Jul 2018 07:29 AM PDT its not doing so well right now. i bought at 145, thinking it was at the bottom of its dip. im fine with holding for a year or so, if it will recover, but this is really the first stock where im tempted to get out now, and take the loss. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| samsung is looking like it's about to take a hit Posted: 02 Jul 2018 05:17 PM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Corporate buybacks are the only thing keeping the stock market afloat Posted: 02 Jul 2018 01:45 PM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 02 Jul 2018 04:15 AM PDT Asia Europe stocks are lower before midday with Euro Stocks 50 -0.87%, the FTSE 100 -0.92%, the CAC 40 -1.09% and the DAX -0.49% US bonds are moderately higher as global markets are in a risk off mood. The US 10-Year is lower to 2.833% while US stocks futures are all lower by over 0.60% Dell to Return to Public Markets With Tracking Stock Buyout https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-02/dell-to-return-to-public-markets-with-tracking-stock-buyout DELL is the world's largest private tech company and will be entering a new stage of its multi-year turnaround plan VMW +14% premkt [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What free resources are available for a complete newb to trading ? Posted: 02 Jul 2018 01:42 AM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Is time for MSC Industrial Direct to recover? Posted: 02 Jul 2018 12:55 AM PDT The share price of MSC Industrial has lagged that of peers such as Grainger (GWW) and Fastenal (FAST), and also that of suppliers such as Kennametal (KMT). The market is wondering whether MSC Industrial's issues are predominantly driven by cyclical factors or increased online competition from Amazon (AMZN), which is expanding into industrial distribution and is altering price transparency and competitive balance. MSC Industrial saw some long-awaited price leverage, but the organic growth rate seems light compared to its multiyear highs. How do you think MSM? https://www.finstead.com/bite/MSC-Industrial-Direct-MSM-earnings-estimates-june-30-2018 [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Significant Activist Hedge Fund Activity (Last 7 Days) Posted: 02 Jul 2018 12:18 AM PDT These are the latest Schedule 13D forms filed by activist investors in the last 7 days. Activist investors are investors that make an investment with the intention of influencing management in some way. There is evidence that following activist investors into investments can generate excess returns. Schedule 13G forms, in contrast, are filed by significant investors with no intention of influencing management (such as Index funds). There is always a lot of interest in insider trades, but what a lot of people probably don't realize is that hedge fund activity is probably more predictive of future returns than insider activity. The reason is that hedge funds (a) have large research budgets, and (b) have a choice where to put their money. In contract, insiders have no choice where to put their money, but only when to time their transactions. New FilingsThis table lists new 13D filings in the last week. A new filing does not necessarily indicate a new position, as investors frequently accumulate in advance before reaching the filing threshold. Amended FilingsThis table lists amended filings in the last week, and is useful for monitoring changes in existing investments or when a fund closes a position. I have eliminated all filings with less than a 5% change in ownership. Source: Fintel.io/activists [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Can I start to learn the market if I can't react during the day? Posted: 01 Jul 2018 11:53 PM PDT I've tried to mess around a little with stock trading before, but I've always stopped because it is difficult for me to do anything during the day. I know I could do this if I used a long strategic but I'm looking for something more day to day. Anyone else in my position and have some advice? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 01 Jul 2018 10:57 PM PDT Hello, I'm 15 years old and have a few questions about finding resources. Firstly, is there a place to find all the definitions and meanings that are commonplace in the investment world? (index funds, ETF's, etc) Secondly, are there some good beginner books that introduce you to the Stock Market as a whole, I find Investopedia references too many things that I don't yet understand and it can be overwhelming. Finally, where do you look to find the information needed to buy a stock. For instance, if I wanted to buy SBUX, where could I find their profits, recent news, sales, acquisitions, etc. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 02 Jul 2018 04:45 AM PDT Hey guys, currently I am 17yrs old and was wondering if there are any useful resources which I could use that would help me get a good understanding of what to do and what not to do when investing in the future. Any tips would be appreciated :) [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 01 Jul 2018 09:00 PM PDT Im a third year in college and starting to make money. Im trying to figure out where to put it, I understand that my student loans have interest. But, I figure once I get out of college and start making more than a minimum wage job it will be easier to pay them off. So I should I take the couple grand I earn now and start investing? Or just put it straight into my loans? Or something else? Taking any suggestions. [link] [comments]  |
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