It's moronic Monday, your chance to ask any of those lingering questions without fear of harassment. Investing |
- It's moronic Monday, your chance to ask any of those lingering questions without fear of harassment.
- What does it mean that Elon Musk bought $10,000,000 worth of Tesla stock today?
- Warner Music Group Sells 75% of Its Spotify Shares
- Why is inflation so low?
- U.S. Crude Oil rises 1.5% on Supply Concerns, Settles at $70.73 per Barrel. First Close above $70 Since 2014
- What does it mean when P/E sky high, but Forward P/E is reasonable?
- Looking for thoughts on a momentum-based trading strategy.
- TSLA true auto sales down 2% QoQ in spite of model 3 ramp
- How to evaluate an index fund/ETF?
- $ISRG - Intuitive Surgical selling for 17 times revenue
- Bond term premiums according to Kim and Wright model
- Can a fund buy put options in anticipation of dumping their shares in a company to take further advantage of the price drop?
- What's a good tool/calculator for finding % return while accounting for deposits and withdrawals?
- Today's Consumer Credit Report Revealed a Really Bearish Signal, Haven't Seen This Discussed Much
- AngelList investing
- Alibaba Buys Online Retailer Daraz in Pakistan Push
- Investing as a community college student
- Which company is biggest beneficiary of tax reform in 1Q 2018?
- Why do country-specific ETF's have such high expense ratios?
- AT&T and Verizon buy in point?
- Which company is best leader in AI industry?
- When you do limit orders, do you always do whole numbers? (Eg. $35.00). And if most people are doing this, would that result in prices hovering just above whole numbers?
- How to shield dividend $ from taxes; earned via ESPP
- Comparing Stanley Druckenmiller’s Investing success with other famous Investors
- How do you think about the result after walt disney earnings call?
| It's moronic Monday, your chance to ask any of those lingering questions without fear of harassment. Posted: 07 May 2018 05:05 AM PDT We encourage all our visitors to ask those investing related questions they were always too afraid to ask. The members of /r/investing are here to answer and educate! NOTE If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or anything similar. There is no single answer to this question, but we will also need A LOT MORE information if we are to give some sort of answer
Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| What does it mean that Elon Musk bought $10,000,000 worth of Tesla stock today? Posted: 07 May 2018 05:25 PM PDT It's awesome that he's putting his money where his mouth is. Could he actually buy a significant amount of TSLA, i.e. "corner the market" and cause a short squeeze on his own? [link] [comments]  |
| Warner Music Group Sells 75% of Its Spotify Shares Posted: 07 May 2018 06:14 AM PDT |
| Posted: 07 May 2018 11:25 PM PDT Hi guys, I'm doing a report on 70's and 80's and how inflation ran up leading to interest rates being raised. Then to support the economy we lowered rates and this caused inflation worries again. My question is, with things looking so touchy in the 70's and 80's with inflation and interest rates, how are rates low while simultaneously inflation is low? Is this a bad sign? Here's a link: https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/first-quarter-2018/why-inflation-so-low [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 May 2018 11:43 AM PDT |
| What does it mean when P/E sky high, but Forward P/E is reasonable? Posted: 07 May 2018 05:19 PM PDT I'm reading about $CASA, and an article says, "The price/earnings ratio (P/E) is 87.50 and the forward P/E ratio stands at 16.36." [link] [comments]  |
| Looking for thoughts on a momentum-based trading strategy. Posted: 07 May 2018 08:24 PM PDT After learning a lot about momentum in one of my finance classes, I decided to give this strategy a shot: I have a list of ~150 tickers, which are decently-sized companies that most of you would recognize. Everyday at close, I run a Google Sheets macro that takes the daily percent change for each of these stocks, and adds them into a column on another sheet. 30 days from now, I'll have 30 days worth of daily returns. I'll feed these into Python, in which I've written some code that will a) look at how many days SPY was green and what its cumulative return is over the past 30 days and b) which of my tickers were green on more days than SPY and had a larger cumulative return than SPY. Of these remaining tickers, the code draws histograms of the returns for each ticker so I can take a quick glance at how these stocks have been doing (e.g. if a stock popped 20% on one day and then has been going up ~.01% for all other days, I wouldn't consider that a momentum trade, but if a stock is steadily climbing .5%, I'll consider it). I then take the top 5 from this list and initiate positions. The portfolio will be refreshed every week by the same process. Does anybody see any immediate pitfalls with the process? How do I know if 30 days is the optimal amount of data to look back at? Is this going to be weak because I can't short the worst performers (apparently, traditional momentum strategies both long top performers AND short bottom performers)? Would this hold up in a bear market? [link] [comments]  |
| TSLA true auto sales down 2% QoQ in spite of model 3 ramp Posted: 07 May 2018 08:07 AM PDT After backing out the $299mm they picked up from new lease accounting standards, and adjusting for ZEV and GHG credit sales, TSLA Q1 2018 auto revenue is down 2% QoQ, and up 8% YoY. Also of note: the Fremont factory is now pledged as collateral with no increase to the borrowing base, hmmmmmm.. What are some of your major takeaways from the 10Q? [link] [comments]  |
| How to evaluate an index fund/ETF? Posted: 07 May 2018 01:39 PM PDT I'm 24 years old, and I am thinking of starting to invest in index funds or ETF. I don't really have experience investing, but I've read a few books and articles, and I understand the basic principle of investing is to evaluate the worth/value of a company first by looking at its balance sheets/financial statements or reports, then buy low and sell high. But how does one go about it for an index fund or ETF? How would you know if its current price is overvalued or undervalued, if it's possible to know? Thanks for all the advice. [link] [comments]  |
| $ISRG - Intuitive Surgical selling for 17 times revenue Posted: 07 May 2018 03:39 PM PDT How can a company (that is not an internet/software only company), growing at 20% an year and profit margin before taxes of 30%, sell for 17 times revenue ever going to deliver a return? Am I missing something? [link] [comments]  |
| Bond term premiums according to Kim and Wright model Posted: 07 May 2018 01:13 PM PDT Mentioned in the bond section in 'Expected Asset Returns on Major Asset Classes' by Ilmanen were two models from 2005 that try to predict term premiums for bonds - that's the expected additional return you get for investing in treasury bonds over cash/tbills. We could further split this up into an inflation term premium plus a real term premium by looking at TIPS. Currently bond yields are higher than cash yields but that's because the Fed is expected to continue hikes. So how much is cash expected to rise, and how much are medium term yields expected to rise and what's left over for long bonds? I don't have a real-time chart for the Cochrane and Piazzesi model based on a tent shaped weighting of the first several maturities (please link if you do), though I did find and skim a thesis paper challenging the model, so I'll focus on the Kim and Wright model. That model uses features of the yield curve and also incorporates analyst targets and is published on Fred. Both models show similar trends. I still don't have a firm grasp on how to think about the results, and I invite discussion. Right now my view is to see this as similar to CAPE for bonds instead of stocks. Movements in the term premium will usually be a short term reflection of bond prices and medium term movements in cash rate expectations and will itself have medium predictive strength for future returns. Actual returns on bonds (absolute or with respect to cash) will not necessarily be predicted by the term premium because cash yields can move by large amounts unexpectedly when the economy changes. But it'll work well when cash follows an expected path. Yields are what will forecast actual nominal returns (of course). The term premium is almost more of a forecast of cash rates than it is of bond returns. But we can pick out some trading information and general valuation. For instance, if you see a large downward swing in yields accompanied by a fall in term premium, you might bet on a short term reversion. If the swing in yields isn't accompanied by a fall in term premium, then there's probably a lowered expectation for cash, and you won't be able to profit from then selling bonds. When we look at the chart and see falling term premiums for bonds over cash, it means that bonds are becoming less and less valuable as a diversifier. Following CAPM, and assuming a negative beta to stocks (bonds are expected to hedge against some stock losses), treasury bonds really have no theoretical reason to have a positive term premium. The premium they did have in the 90s and naughts was probably because of lingering fear of huge losses from the stagflation era and a positive beta. I think returns in the early tens were higher than predicted because the Fed kept holding off on hikes. But returns starting in the teens have been close to zero as predicted. One thing I'm unsure about is whether the model includes a measure of mean reversion to the average levels in the sample data, like stock return returns regressed against CAPE do, or whether they're more passive, like a Gordon Growth-style model (which could also be based on CAPE). Research Affiliates expected returns tool allows you to choose between both types of models and even mix them together. I'm also not sure what kinds of events are averaged or priced into the expectations, like periodic tightening and loosening cycles. Taken at face value, these term premiums are saying that we can no longer expect treasury bonds to outperform cash on average. Is that an accurate interpretation? If so, does it mean diversifying a stock portfolio with levered bonds won't significantly improve it any more - smoother in times of crisis but rougher in times of inflation and calmly falling discount rates, no added return long term? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 May 2018 11:20 PM PDT |
| What's a good tool/calculator for finding % return while accounting for deposits and withdrawals? Posted: 07 May 2018 02:31 PM PDT It's obviously hard to compare the annual performance of my portfolio to something like the SP500 because over that time I've made multiple deposits (and potentially withdrawals). Deposits will weaken the overall % return as they are made, so how I can account for that? [link] [comments]  |
| Today's Consumer Credit Report Revealed a Really Bearish Signal, Haven't Seen This Discussed Much Posted: 07 May 2018 04:55 PM PDT See FRED Revolving Credit Data Here As some probably know by now, I've been following along closely to a lot of consumer credit data in the USA and also around the world. Today's credit release had a really interesting and bearish item pop up.... a decrease in revolving credit, IE credit card debt. This is interesting because at the outset, many would assume that a drop in credit card debt would be a good sign for the economy, but it turns out it has other potential implications for how people are viewing forward economic environment. Also, a drop in credit card debt means consumers are spending less, which leads to companies making less in revenue. In short, deleveraging tends to be more bearish than anything else, and this is a leverage indicator that rarely decreases. Explaining the Chart If you look in the FRED chart here linked at the top, I think it should be extremely self-explanatory. In short, revolving credit tends to only decrease during times of financial stress. This can be seen by the flattening or going negative of revolving credit. The last 4 times this happened all occurred during recessions (the 2015 event was a data reset). It happened early in 2008, in 2001, in 1990, and in 1987.
Things may be different? Even though I've been notably un-optimistic about the future of the economy (6 months - 2 years out), this indicator is... a bit odd. The thing is, during other bear markets, it dropped below zero AFTER a recession already hit. Given, it dropped down a good bit before the big drops of 2008, but in the previous recessions, it hit zero pretty late on during the recession. At least to a degree, this seems to be more of a lagging indicator than a leading indicator. So why is revolving credit dropping so much, and is that a bad thing? This may be a sign that this isn't a super reliable signal right now... or we could be in a similar situation to early 2008 for all we know. Hard to say anything definitive of course. My biased 2 cents Obviously, form your own judgements here and don't use this in isolation to make any decisions. I think this is generally not a great sign. As I mentioned, a lot of consumer spending comes from revolving credit. If revolving credit is drawing down, then consumer spending is decreasing. It's good to know that consumers are trying to reign in credit excesses, but the fact that there is a need to do so (if that's the case) probably isn't a great sign, especially given our rising rates. In the 2008 example, when this crossed 0, we were about 15% off from all time highs. Currently, we are about 6% off all time highs. With that said, we should be aware that the environments are much different. We recently passed a stimulative package which made the current environment much different than 2008, so it's natural that we aren't down as much. We also are coming off an era of enormous liquidity and stimulus worldwide unlike 2008, so perhaps if it weren't for these elements, we would be down more than we currently are when this indicator went negative. Who knows, it's probably a moot point to compare eras like this, but I figured it's at least worth exploring the one example where the indicator may have been more of a leading indicator than anything else. Regardless, discuss. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 May 2018 01:47 AM PDT Does somebody have experience with https://angel.co/invest/start? It looks really interesting but it doesn't seem to be accessible for someone who would like to invest 10k over time or is there another way to come into the fund like AngelList Access Fund? Thank you all [link] [comments]  |
| Alibaba Buys Online Retailer Daraz in Pakistan Push Posted: 08 May 2018 01:40 AM PDT |
| Investing as a community college student Posted: 07 May 2018 07:41 PM PDT When I'm out of school I want to digest as much information I can on how to make calculated risky trades and investments with a few thousand dollars. The past two weeks I've basically been gambling and not actually investing with a real strategy. I haven't been able to find a book targeted towards young people with extremely minimal expenses. Most sites recommend the intelligent investor and a few others but I'm uncertain if that is the direction/strategy I want to go with because I'm okay with losing money and will devote a lot of time towards research. I want to be an extremely active investor. Unfortunately my econ professors weren't really able to send me in any direction so I'm hoping one of you will. Maybe I have the wrong attitude and should begin reading the classic books? Maybe I'm extremely ignorant and do not realize what the markets are like? Any advice would be appreciated sorry if youre sick of these threads. [link] [comments]  |
| Which company is biggest beneficiary of tax reform in 1Q 2018? Posted: 08 May 2018 01:38 AM PDT Is a company with a large portion of overseas sales more good? As I know apple is large portion of overseas. So apple able to hold cash due to tax reform. Is it right? And do you know other cases? [link] [comments]  |
| Why do country-specific ETF's have such high expense ratios? Posted: 07 May 2018 07:01 PM PDT I can't seem to find any sort of country-specific ETF's other than in the U.S. for <.3% expense ratio. For example, I was trying to find an etf that tracks the chinese (shanghai) index. [link] [comments]  |
| AT&T and Verizon buy in point? Posted: 07 May 2018 12:59 PM PDT Both dropped due to the Sprint T-Mobile deal. Thinking of calls on both around 3 months out. Any opinions on this? I don't pay much attention to telecommunication companies so any insight would be great. [link] [comments]  |
| Which company is best leader in AI industry? Posted: 07 May 2018 08:48 AM PDT I am not friendly AI industry. I just know that IBM, MSFT, GOOGL are probably dealing with AI tech. But I think there are exist a lot of another company. So... could you let me know which company is best leader in AI industry? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 May 2018 10:48 AM PDT If the large majority of people are buying limit orders of whole numbers, wouldn't that make the price behave unevenly sourounding the price of whole numbers? [link] [comments]  |
| How to shield dividend $ from taxes; earned via ESPP Posted: 07 May 2018 07:34 PM PDT I'm looking for some advice from those of you who invest into the company they work for via ESPP. the dividends in ny company are reinvested right away. I am building a significant position in my company and starting to feel it on my tax bill. I was wondering if there is a way to shield the dividend money so that I won't have to pay ordinary income tax rate on the dividend. It's a bit annoying that I don't physically see the money because it's reinvested automatically, yet I have to come up with $$ to pay income tax on that money. [link] [comments]  |
| Comparing Stanley Druckenmiller’s Investing success with other famous Investors Posted: 07 May 2018 10:15 PM PDT $1,000 invested 30 years ago in S&P - S&P's compounded about 11%, your $1,000 would be $27,000 before taxes today. 25 up years, 5 down years. Probably the poster child of investors, Warren Buffett in the last 30 years has compounded just under 20 percent. $1,000 30 years ago would be $177,000 today, 24 up years and 6 down years. The pundit that you see on TV all the time, the egotistical Bill Gross who you would think is the greatest investor there's ever been, he compounded the last 30 years at 7.8 percent, and $1,000 would be $10,000. With Stanley Druckenmiller, if you invested $1,000 30 years ago, today it would be $2.6 million. Thirty years, no losses. [link] [comments]  |
| How do you think about the result after walt disney earnings call? Posted: 07 May 2018 09:52 PM PDT Of cause there are code cutting issues. But black panther and avengers are big hit. How do you think about the result after walt disney earnings call? [link] [comments]  |
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