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    Is /r/politics creeping onto /r/investing? Investing

    March 06, 2018

    Is /r/politics creeping onto /r/investing? Investing

    Is /r/politics creeping onto /r/investing?

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 10:38 PM PST

    It seems like everyday now there's a new post about someone selling all their stocks because of something President Trump says, or new posts full of concern trolling with little to no investing content. I get it, he's plainly unconventional and isn't a herald of stability. If that comes as a shock to you, frankly if anything he says or does comes as a shock to you, you haven't been paying attention during the last 2 years. His platform hasn't magically changed overnight, and tariffs did not just spontaneously fly out of left field.

    Politics is an awful, awful, awful determinant in investment decisions. Warren Buffett has time and time again repeated that sentiment, and if you think you have a better investment dogma than Warren Buffett then hats off to you, but I'll take his word over anyone else's.

    No one knows where this market is going. If they claim they do then they are lying to you. All you can do is stick to your investment philosophy and risk tolerance and go from there, but I implore you to take the advice of Warren Buffett and leave politics out of your investment decisions. Good, profitable businesses will continue to do well despite those circumstances.

    submitted by /u/Mr_Find_Value
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    CNBC: Amazon reportedly looks to offer checking accounts for customers via JP Morgan, other banks

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 07:03 PM PST

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/05/amazon-in-talks-with-jp-morgan-other-banks-about-branded-checking-account-wsj.html

    Amazon is considering partnering with Wall Street's top banks in an effort to build a "checking-account-like" product for customers, according to a report.

    The e-commerce giant is in early talks with financial institutions including J.P. Morgan Chase to help launch the accounts, aimed at younger customers and those without banking accounts, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday.

    While people familiar with the situation tell the Journal the discussions are in early stages, such a venture would add yet another entity to Amazon's expanding portfolio, which now includes grocery stores and its digital assistant, Alexa.

    "The underlying goal is to further grow its Prime membership through cross-selling into existing J.P. Morgan customers and this could lead to more initiatives down the road," Dan Ives, chief strategy officer and head of technology research at GBH Insights, told CNBC in an email. "Ultimately, Amazon is in fifth gear, trying to double down on the consumer and the finance vertical looks like the next step (through partnerships) of adding to the Amazon flywheel."

    With Amazon's host of customers and impressive market value, some have wondered whether the e-commerce giant would eventually seek to disrupt the banking system. According to a LendEDU survey released Wednesday, roughly 45 percent of respondents were open to using Amazon as their primary banking account, while 49.6 percent would use a savings account created by the company.

    submitted by /u/GloBoy54
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    Long $NVDA, involvement in AI will bring success for them long term

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 11:28 AM PST

    $NVDA is a gaming company. It has been since its inception. Most recently, Nvidia has been big into Artificial intelligence. Most headlines reference something to do with AI. I think this transition from gaming to AI is important for Nvidia's growth in the next decade. My price target for them is a 40% upside, $329. Is that even possible given how much it's grown this past year? I think so.

    Here is the google drive with the model, paper, and open position proof, updated whenever I update them

    I'm just going to go over some catalysts and some risks:

    Catalysts

    • New GeForce series using the new Volta architecture, Series 20. Announcement will be big, should be in March 2018. The already released GPUs with Volta have been successful, I expect that trend to continue.

    • Cryptocurrency becoming more popular. Crypto isn't going away, so I'd assume it to be a catalyst. I don't like to pay attention to it.

    • Two years until we are seeing some of Nvidia's big autonmous vehicles come to life. Both the driving platform they are developing in china with ZF and Baidu, and the Volkswagen VW AI-infused Bus are expected to be actualized in 2020. If we see some success in the execution of these projects, I'd consider it a catalyst. I'm confident their execution will be successful given the success they've already demonstrated in AI with their datacenter revenue.

    • Gaming industry big news (PC). Every year there is more gamers, every year gamers get better jobs, every year there are more games. GPUs are an integral part to gaming, so these revenues will grow with the gaming market.

    Risks:

    • Semiconductor industry decline. The semiconductor industry is interesting because a decline in one can cause they others to underperform. This is an entire topic on its own.

    • AMD/new GPU designer taking market share from Nvidia. Unlikely, but Nvidia's dominance in the GPU market is why I am so bullish. I want to invest in the leader of AI deep learning training hardware and graphics processing, not the second best.

    • Jensen Huang, the CEO, losing his ability to lead the company. Nvidia has has successfully positioned themselves to be a part of the future of AI, which I think is accredited to Huang's execution. This is a positive, he's invested in the company. The downside to this is that he is very important and anything that hurts his ability to lead would hurt Nvidia.

    • New GeForce 20 series being not much of an upgrade from series 10, possibility but I think unlikely. Unlikely because their Titan V uses 12nm technology.

    Price Target:

    • I used a DCF model to arrive at the price target of $329, using a 7% discount rate and 1% perpetual growth rate. In the model I assume 39% revenue growth in Nvidia's 2019 fiscal year, 32% in 2020, and 28% in 2021. I based this off their plans in autonomous driving, and their new GeForce series to be released with Volta architecture.

    What I think:

    I think Nvidia successfully integrating its hardware into so many big company's is a huge success for their long term goals. Nvidia hardware is being utilized in Tesla's electic car's autopilot 2.0, and used by Google and Amazon Web Services datacenters. Nvidia is so dominant that no one can take these positions unless the company wants to build their own chips, which would be billions of dollars in R&D. Nvidia is supplying hardware for these big companies and there is no one to compete.

    TLDR: NVIDIA is investing into AI. Nvidia's Drive PX 2 operates Tesla's autopilot 2.0 system, Nvidia's new Tesla GPUs have grown datacenter revenue by 133% this last year, and their focus on the narrow AI to bring autonomous vehicles on the road is proving to be worth it. $329, long equity.

    Why am I doing this?

    Well I don't think I am perfect and I think I missed A LOT, so I want some critisism to get as close to perfection as I can. Read the paper and look at the model.

    submitted by /u/Noqt
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    EU Proposes Retaliatory Tariffs of 25% Against U.S. Steel, T-Shirts, Jeans

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 11:57 PM PST

    Reuters: Fidelity puts 6 million savers on risky path to retirement

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 12:35 PM PST

    BOSTON (Reuters) - For three years, the mutual funds in Fidelity's flagship retirement franchise have outperformed at least 85 percent of their competitors, reversing a decade-long trend of subpar performance.

    And yet client money has continued to flow out of the firm's Freedom Funds as retirement plan sponsors shift workers' savings to rivals in the target-date fund business.

    While deposits in the trillion-dollar sector have surged, Fidelity has seen nearly $16 billion in net withdrawals over the past four years, according to research firm Morningstar Inc.

    The exodus stems in part from unease with the way Boston-based Fidelity has boosted performance - by ramping up risk.

    Since a strategy overhaul that took full effect in 2014, Fidelity has substantially increased exposure to stocks, including those from volatile emerging markets. The firm also scrapped a long-held belief of sticking to pre-set allocations of stocks, bonds and other assets in target-date funds. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/special-report-fidelity-puts-6-120852578.html

    submitted by /u/bobbyw24
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    Dow opens more than 100 points lower as trade war fears rattle investors

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 07:33 AM PST

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/05/us-stock-futures-dow-data-trump-and-politics-on-the-agenda.html

    How long do we think these trade war market rattles will go on? I wonder if the market will stay rattled for months even if the tariffs get rescinded.

    submitted by /u/ThisIsTheWater
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    Advice for international exposure? An index with a low fee?

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 09:00 PM PST

    What do you think? Morninstars' data on active v. Passive in the international arena

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 07:19 PM PST

    I was reading an article from Fidelity claiming that international passive funds underperformed active ones and I was thought well, they typically push active funds, that is their niche. However, they cited this data from Morningstar. https://m.imgur.com/a/Rmun2 I do not know what to think of this. How could an active fund say in the German stock market outperform a passive index when the same rules that make passive indexes win year after year in the US apply? Do active funds typically persue a currency hedging strategy of some sort? I prefer my passive index but this data gives me pause. I could understand active outperforming passive in the emerging marlet space but not for other developed nations.

    submitted by /u/BigOneEyedPurpleEmu
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    Why are nasdaq indexes so expensive? Is QQQ the cheapest at .20%? (Compare this to S&P 500 which are .03%)

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 08:15 AM PST

    edit:

    Correct my if I'm wrong but let's compare QQQ (.20%) to SWTSX (.03%). Let's say I invest $10,000 and let it compound for 40 years.

    That's 17 dollars more for QQQ per year taken from my account. Let's say it would have been compounded at 8% per year. I'm in my 20s now so let's say I take it out when I'm 60, so 40 years.

    That's $5,125 in EXTRA fees for choosing QQQ over SWTSX

    submitted by /u/explore__
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    $PYPL Files Crypto Patent.

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 04:11 PM PST

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/paypal-files-patent-for-cryptocurrency-system-2018-03-05?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

    Any ideas what they might do and how it might affect their business and market value? Seems very interesting.

    submitted by /u/walmartsale
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    Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 04:05 AM PST

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or anything similar. There is no single answer to this question, but we will also need A LOT MORE information if we are to give some sort of answer

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive girlfriend? (not really an asset)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    M/V Portfolio Optimisation and Dividends

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 04:04 AM PST

    Whilst I understand m/v portfolio optimisation when it comes to non-dividend paying stocks. How does one go about determining the data to use when constructing a portfolio with dividend paying stocks.

    For example, do you use the adjusted close (including splits and dividends) or adjusted close (only splits)

    As all examples at Uni where non-dividend performing stocks and the textbooks never did either. Furthermore, this is compounded by the fact that I know that dividends are part of the holding period return for a stock.

    Any help, or suggestions of a more appropriate to ask this question would be appreciated, thanks.

    submitted by /u/Zero_static
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    Question about shorting

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 03:43 AM PST

    I'd like to short and hold long on the same security, call it xyz. 500 shares will be held long, and 500 will be shorted. Each share cost 10 dollars, and I initiate both positions on June 1, 2018. The stock then rises 1000% by December 1, 2018 and I made nor lost 0 dollars. BUT do I have to pay capital gains tax on the long position now for a huge loss since I am shorting against the box? What if I Held 500 shares of Svxy and shorted 500 shares of XIV both 10$ (pretend it still exists). Does short against box rule go away since the securities are different? Is my net cash 0 or hugely negative in each scenario?

    submitted by /u/Dt_Easy
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    Help: I am trying to evaluate companies from the angle of Cloud Computing. Can anyone from within the industry tell me which one out of AWS, Azure and GCP has a more promising future.

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 01:16 PM PST

    Thanks for your time in advance.

    From what I read, it seems like a lot of companies are moving their network to the cloud. Apparently AWS has a huge leg up in the game, which is kind of surprising for me as I thought the IT companies should have begun doing this way before Amazon. And AWS is so important to Amazon that a lot of people here say that it's the number one reason to justify the utterly rich valuation of Amazon.

    Apparently Microsoft and Google are playing catch-up hard. And it seems like Azure is closing in the distance from AWS. Is there any chance for Azure or GCP to challenge its dominance in the clouding market? I don't know about cloud enough to know if AWS has any immovable technological or pricing advantages. So if any of you who work with cloud can share some thoughts or information, I am all ears.

    And if a company already set up their cloud network with one of these companies, is it easy for them to transfer to another company?

    What bothers me is that I couldn't seem to find the exact revenue and earnings number of AWS and GCP on the 10K reports of Amazon and Google. Is it because they didn't specify it on their 10-K or am I just not looking hard enough? If the former one, where can I find their cloud revenue numbers?

    Thanks guys.

    submitted by /u/lebronkahn
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    What's going on with gun stocks?

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 07:52 AM PST

    They report poor results and low guidance for a year but they skyrocket.

    submitted by /u/Swatieson
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    Investment advice for a teenager

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 01:14 PM PST

    I have been following the sub for a while now and have quickly gained interest in investing. I am a teenager with around $400 available to invest, do not currently have a job (not in a financially extreme situation), and have an account in Vanguard. The internet is full of advice similar to my situation but all differ from buying individual stocks, index funds, and ETFs. It would also be important to say that I believe in a long term investment plan of holding on to assets and selling them at retirement than just selling at highs. I just wanted to see the opinion of this subreddit on what I should do with my money whether it be buy individual stocks/dividend stocks (reinvest with dividend payments), research and buy ETFs, or create a diverse portfolio using mostly Vanguard mutual funds. Any input would be greatly appreciated.

    submitted by /u/williamdb19
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    Everyone tell you when to buy and how well they did after buying at a certain price.

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 09:06 PM PST

    I see all these emails and read all this and that about people buying at XX price and telling investors that a stock is a buy, buy now, etc but I seldom if ever see stocks that people are advised to sell. I mean there are 20 emails a day listing what to buy but zero are damn near to it listing what to sell. Advisors touting when they told us to buy NVDA at $14,00 or buy AMZN at $270.00 but they never (in my experience) proclaim their greatness about when they told you to sell? I struggle selling, how can I figure out when to sell?

    submitted by /u/dirtysoutherngent
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    Non-stock market REIT investment in Europe

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 07:08 AM PST

    I am exceedingly interested in REITs but I would like to put some stock in something that is not on the stock market. I believe that this will have less correlation with the actual stock market and that is my goal too.

    Do many of these exist in Europe? Any recommendations/places to start? Thanks

    submitted by /u/aelaos1
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    Investing in an etf vs just buying the etf’s holdings manually?

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 12:02 AM PST

    If i'm looking to hold something long term, say 30 years, it doesn't seem to make a ton of sense to buy an ETF like BOTZ, which charges ~.6 expense ratio which adds up to tens of thousands in lost $ over time.

    What are the disadvantages to simply buying and balancing all the stocks in BOTZ manually so that it resembles BOTZ?

    submitted by /u/HappyLuckBox
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    EU said to Mull Tariffs Against U.S. Steel, T-shirts, Jeans

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 11:45 PM PST

    VEA ETF question

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 03:14 PM PST

    Is VEA to international markets what VOO is to US markets?

    submitted by /u/j2324
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    thought on CPST?

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 06:50 PM PST

    thought on CPST?

    submitted by /u/lotsofquestions1223
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    Next big thing?

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 05:14 PM PST

    What is the Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Google, Bitocin of today. In other words what are some stocks that you speculate will blow up in about 10 years. I know this is literally the million dollar question that no one can really forecast but I'm just curious as to your educated guesses.

    submitted by /u/RangerEsquire
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    What is the average that investors are down since Black Friday #2 at the end of January?

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 08:56 PM PST

    If I'm down 1.67% now am I still ahead of most?

    submitted by /u/Shadowban89
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