Breaking: Dow Jones Down Over 900 Points On Rising Interest Rates Investing |
- Breaking: Dow Jones Down Over 900 Points On Rising Interest Rates
- NVIDIA Reports Q4 Adj. EPS $1.72 vs $1.16 Est., Sales $2.9B vs $2.68B Est.
- U.S. Government Shutdown Begins as Congress Lets Funding Lapse...the hits just keep on coming
- $XIV Volpocalypse – A Sea of Disinformation and Misunderstanding
- Twitters Earnings: $0.19 EPS vs. $0.14 EPS expected. Up 20% pre-market.
- There's $2+ trillion in short volatility trade in this market.
- am I the only one who thinks everyone is overreacting?
- “Investors are pulling out”
- Commodities futures etf
- What’s apps are best for keeping up with the market as you go about your day? Like news apps that send you notifications when something significant happens in the markets
- Warning about trading on Schwab
- Far From Unprecedented: Nine Selloffs Like This, and Nine Rebounds
- GOOS down 15% right now after their earnings report which seemed good to me. But why is it down 15%?
- What happens to all of the funds that were in XIV.
- Correction: How Deep and How Long?
- Something or someone very large is liquidating. Usual correlations are not in play right now. This is indiscriminate selling across the board of everything.
- Long Term Investment
- Have Bonds Backed The US Stock Market Into a Corner?
- With all the speculation regarding the stock market dropping as a result of rising interest rates, I would like to attempt to back that theory up with some content.
- Short Seller Spruce Point Capital recommends strong sell for Realty Income Corporation (NYSE: O)
- Options Question
- Battered names that might be nice to pick up here?
- Are investors being greedy or fearful
- Why the market is falling?
| Breaking: Dow Jones Down Over 900 Points On Rising Interest Rates Posted: 08 Feb 2018 12:58 PM PST EDIT: Now down over 1000, the second worst drop ever No I'm not some doomesdayer and I realize interest rates are only partly why the drop happened. Most likely another correction relax [link] [comments]  |
| NVIDIA Reports Q4 Adj. EPS $1.72 vs $1.16 Est., Sales $2.9B vs $2.68B Est. Posted: 08 Feb 2018 01:27 PM PST |
| U.S. Government Shutdown Begins as Congress Lets Funding Lapse...the hits just keep on coming Posted: 08 Feb 2018 10:42 PM PST
[link] [comments]  |
| $XIV Volpocalypse – A Sea of Disinformation and Misunderstanding Posted: 08 Feb 2018 07:24 AM PST Terrific explanation of what happened to the XIV. http://kiddynamitesworld.com/xiv-volpocalypse-sea-disinformation-ignorance/ [link] [comments]  |
| Twitters Earnings: $0.19 EPS vs. $0.14 EPS expected. Up 20% pre-market. Posted: 08 Feb 2018 04:52 AM PST Estimated revenue: $732 million vs. $686.1 million estimated, according to a Thomson Reuters consensus estimate. EBITDA: $308 million vs. $241 million estimated, per FactSet and StreetAccount Monthly active users (MAUs): 330 million vs. 332.5 million estimated, per FactSet and StreetAccount. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/02/08/twitter-q4-2017-earnings-revenue.html [link] [comments]  |
| There's $2+ trillion in short volatility trade in this market. Posted: 08 Feb 2018 03:06 PM PST There's $2 trillion of short volatility derivatives that are being exposed right now. XIV's evaporation is going to have cascading effects. This in the middle of a rate hike and QE unwind. In the big picture, we have a bunch of complacent buyers who've been lulled to sleep by cheap capital and near zero interest rates. When there's no moral hazard in a system, inefficiencies build up. Anyone else appreciate what's coming on the horizon here? Short vol is the next subprime. [link] [comments]  |
| am I the only one who thinks everyone is overreacting? Posted: 08 Feb 2018 07:03 PM PST I'm loving the firesale right now. EDIT: "Everyone" meaning the MSM [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Feb 2018 08:37 AM PST I am hearing this phrase over and over again the past few days. As a passive investor I'm confused as to the strategy behind pulling out of the market. I'm in a target date 401k and lazy couch portfolio Roth IRA. This means I'm in it for the long haul. Can someone give me some perspective on the game plan for pulling out as an active investor? What are these investors doing with their money when they pull it out? Are they just waiting to buy the dip or are they putting their money elsewhere? Do these people just sit on the money when it is withdrawn? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 09 Feb 2018 01:43 AM PST What are the dangers of this product? The only problem i can see is that if commodities prices totally collapse for some reason, then the futures contracts held by the etf will be worthless and the etf would presumably close, and investors lose all their money. Is that it? So long as you're not borrowing to buy in, your only risk is to your invested capital in the case of something so catastrophic that the etf has to shut down because it can't recover it's losses? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Feb 2018 08:50 AM PST |
| Warning about trading on Schwab Posted: 09 Feb 2018 01:10 AM PST Throw away because this has some personal information in it. Don't trust them to cancel orders via the mobile client. I had one order say it was canceled and ended up going through which cost me a lot of money today. I can't do anything about it and the money is now gone. Service was disappointing, but they wont expose themselves to that much risk when they can just blame you saying they never received the cancel order. Mutual fund, traded after hours. Not the sort of thing that would get filled right away. I'm angry, but all I can think of is to warn others and spread some bad general PR in hopes they fix this before others get caught in the same situation with bigger accounts. I want to warn people here about how unreliable they can be sometimes since really that's all I can do to an institution as big as they are. [link] [comments]  |
| Far From Unprecedented: Nine Selloffs Like This, and Nine Rebounds Posted: 08 Feb 2018 03:55 PM PST |
| GOOS down 15% right now after their earnings report which seemed good to me. But why is it down 15%? Posted: 08 Feb 2018 10:43 AM PST |
| What happens to all of the funds that were in XIV. Posted: 08 Feb 2018 06:06 PM PST Billions of dollars worth of individuals' funds sitting in XIV vanished in the span of a couple of hours. What happens to that cash? Where does it go? Does it end up in someone else's hands? [link] [comments]  |
| Correction: How Deep and How Long? Posted: 08 Feb 2018 06:44 PM PST Now that we are in correction territory the questions become how deep will the correction be and how long will it last, aside from minor fluctuations? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Feb 2018 12:53 PM PST |
| Posted: 09 Feb 2018 02:56 AM PST 'Now is the winter of our discontent made glorious bummer.' -W.ShakesBEARe Anyway, I see a lot of people talking about 'long term' investments. I just wonder what exactly is it you all mean: years, decades, Halley's Comet periods? Seems to be a very relative, subjective term. Thanks. [link] [comments]  |
| Have Bonds Backed The US Stock Market Into a Corner? Posted: 08 Feb 2018 10:00 AM PST I am wondering if we are starting to see the effect of bond rates slowly starting to rise. With near 0 interest rates for the past many years, tons of money was thrown to the stock market, as the only way to make a return (albeit a great one). Now, my question is have bonds backed the market into a corner? As their rates grow, money comes out of the stock market, deflating it as a whole. Am I paranoid in thinking that this means very bad things for the road ahead? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Feb 2018 05:20 PM PST So you all are probably shitting your pants right about now. On Friday February 2, the S&P dropped by 1%. On Monday February 5, the S&P dropped 3% and the S&P futures continued dropping another 100 points in the after hours. Today, we experienced another 100-point drop in the S&P nearing 4%. What the hell is going on?? I have a theory. And it's only a theory. So take this with a grain of salt. But before I introduce my theory, I'd like to introduce you all to the Fed Model. The Fed Model The Fed Model (which has nothing to do with the Fed btw, it was called the "Fed" model by Prudential Analyst, Edward Yardeni) basically says this: -If the S&P earnings yield is greater than the 10-year treasury yield, then the market is undervalued. Therefore the rational investor should invest in the market. -If the S&P earnings yield is less than the 10-year treasury yield, then the market is overvalued. Therefore the rational investor should invest in treasury bonds. Makes intuitive sense right? Invest wherever there's a higher rate of return. Nothing too difficult there. So let's compare the S&P Earnings Yield to Treasury Yields. Btw, what is the Earnings Yield? The Earnings Yield is the inverse of the P/E ratio. So the E/P ratio if you want to call it that (Please don't call it that) S&P Earnings Yield vs 10-Year Treasury Yield Using data from Quandl, we can see the S&P earnings yield has been steadily declining. From 3.99% at the beginning of the year to 3.8% at the beginning of February. The Treasury yields, on the other hand, have been slowly creeping up this year. Historical data for our 10-year Treasury yields show that yields have increased from around 2.41% in the beginning of the year to nearly 3% now. You can see the gap between the yields have narrowed from 1.58% down to 0.80% now, nearly half the distance it was at before. The average difference between the S&P Earnings Yield and the 10-Year Treasury Yield from January 1979 to December 2008 was 0.70%. As this gap reverts towards its mean in such an aggressive manner, this might explain a shift from equities to safer instruments such as treasuries or cash. However, there are some drawbacks to using the Fed Model: The Fed model compares the 10-Year Treasury Yield, which anatomically has expected inflation priced into itself to the S&P Earnings Yield, which doesn't. The S&P Earnings Yield is a real rate that does not include any effects of inflation. So we are metaphorically comparing apples to oranges. It also ignores any earnings growth potential available to shareholders beyond anything after next year. Since earnings yield is just the inverse of the P/E ratio and the P/E ratio used in this model only projects forward one year. As with all models, these are not 100% accurate. Right before the financial crisis, the S&P Earnings Yield was projecting 6-7% while 10-Year Treasury yields were forecasting 2-3%. Of course the yield curve was also inverted during this time so short-term rates were much higher than long-term rates, but that's a different story. In spite of these two weaknesses, the Fed model can still provide some useful insight. It does suggest an inverse relationship between equities and bonds and if money is going out of equities, it may very well be rotated into bonds assuming they're providing a higher yield. And even then, the more risk-averse investors have to ask themselves: "Am I really being compensated for staying in equities even if there's only a marginal advantage in yields?" [link] [comments]  |
| Short Seller Spruce Point Capital recommends strong sell for Realty Income Corporation (NYSE: O) Posted: 08 Feb 2018 09:30 PM PST http://www.sprucepointcap.com/realty-income-corp/
Spruce Point Capital also criticized the executive management team of consisting of entirely ex-investment bankers, and the ethics board being lackluster. EDIT: They have also posted on Twitter with data backing their criticism of O: https://twitter.com/sprucepointcap EDIT2: Thanks to u/ron_leflore for pointing out O's recent situation. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Feb 2018 09:56 AM PST I am a total noob to options trading. So I bought VIX $30 put that expired in the money and I thought I made money,(I bought at 3 and it expired at 2.70 however it was marked as itm). When it exercised it sold 100 VIX at 0$. Basically i flushed 300$ down the drain. What did I do wrong? Please explain as you would to a small child. [link] [comments]  |
| Battered names that might be nice to pick up here? Posted: 09 Feb 2018 12:40 AM PST I couldn't help but notice that a few red-hot tickers have come down a bit given the recent trading sessions, and I was wondering what you guys thought about them. TXN - near-monopoly on the high-end calculator space, has come down quite a bit. Bound to be good long term given increasingly competitive education and the popularity of statistics/data science fields? O - nice dividend payer with tenants that are (relatively) Amazon-proof. We're in a rising rate environment so maybe I'd like to see this fall a bit more. JNJ - self-explanatory. WM - was on a huge tear, now down a little over 10%. Pretty stable business with no disruption in sight; if anything, people produce more trash as economies improve in the long run. AWK - was getting run down even before February, so it's down quite considerably. Bargain? Feel free to add your own tickers of solid companies you think are nice to open a position in. I just wanted to get a feel about whether people thought these were good picks and what else might be worth investigating. [link] [comments]  |
| Are investors being greedy or fearful Posted: 08 Feb 2018 11:43 PM PST As the saying goes - be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful Are people greedy now with their short interest or have they been greedy with their long index fund investments? Interested to hear others feedback. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Feb 2018 02:56 PM PST Ok. So the market is falling due to the economic policies due to quantitative easing ending. People are in panic selling their shares and putting them into bonds, cash, or wherever. Now in theory this makes sense since the risk free rate known as the 10 year treasury note has been going up. However, there is something I believe is missing from some people`s thought process. If you look at this link :https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US10Y If you click all it shows that since 1978 the rate has been falling. I havent actually done the math but Im willing to bet that over that same time period if you took 1 share of any blue chip stock say microsoft and reinvested its divided and accounted for splits you would be far better off than bonds. Yes, you can lose more with stocks however to me it seems stupid to say you should prefer bonds due to lower risk since to me it would suck to lose on a security with low risk than one with higher risk since when you have lower risk you expect to at least keep what you put in originally (cost basis). [link] [comments]  |
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