A hedge fund in CO made $17.5 million on a $200,000 bet on volatility rising Investing |
- A hedge fund in CO made $17.5 million on a $200,000 bet on volatility rising
- Amazon reportedly launching a delivery service for businesses; FedEx, UPS shares slide
- Don't worry, I've lost $10,000+ in unrealized gains.
- [Tinfoil ?] Current Market Drama: Could this be results from a hack? Read before making assumptions.
- Stocks tracking for worst week since 2008, and it may get worse
- Why does Cramer keep saying this sell off is VIX related?
- What are some other black swan events that have occurred in the past such as with XIV blowing up.
- $LOW vs $HD?
- Averaging down on margin
- No stocks, bonds or cryptocurrencies (too generic/too easy). I have $40k sitting in my checking account and wanted to know what I could do to earn a couple extra bucks on it... receptive to anything, even the most unconventional ideas so long as they are investing my timeline is open.
- Should you be investing in any manner when you have debt?
- [AMA Request] A prop trader (questions inside)
- Gold falls, Dollar falls, Dow falls, S&P falls. So where is all the cash piling up?
- $1 trillion treasury tsunami... a vicious cycle
- We are at the 200 MDA!
- Silver as a currency/inflation hedge?
- End-of-week Discussion (February 5 - 9)
- $160B defense budget increase thoughts?
- Is it time to buy?
- What's your correction short list? Who are you watching?
- Thinking about buying soon
- Should I be freaking out
- "Jerome Powell" correction?
- Should we expect an increase in Roth IRA contributions limits soon?
| A hedge fund in CO made $17.5 million on a $200,000 bet on volatility rising Posted: 09 Feb 2018 02:01 PM PST |
| Amazon reportedly launching a delivery service for businesses; FedEx, UPS shares slide Posted: 09 Feb 2018 04:48 AM PST [link] [comments]  |
| Don't worry, I've lost $10,000+ in unrealized gains. Posted: 09 Feb 2018 11:35 AM PST I just wanted to make this post to help out those among you that've seen your portfolios drop in the last few weeks to feel better about yourselves. I started investing heavily in early 2015 and while I'm still in the black, over the past two weeks I've encroached $10,000 in losses from those unrealized gains. This is in a portfolio that's well diversified and with miniscule fees, so trust me, if you're quite negative you are not alone. I am right there with you and we will pull through this stronger on the other side. The surprising thing to me is that I didn't freak out at all. This is the first real correction I've experienced and despite checking prices fairly frequently, it just hasn't registered emotionally with me. I look at the declines and feel pretty numb to it, which was reassuring to me that my emotions are not in control. It probably helps that I never invested any amount that I couldn't afford to lose and I have a long time horizon, and I acknowledge that's a luxury some of you are not afforded. For those that have invested money they will need shortly, I sympathize with you greatly but know with enough time those gains are highly likely to recuperate. I'm not a prideful man. I've lost upwards of $10,000 of value in these last few days and admit it before this sub that has helped me out so much. If you're experiencing losses you're not alone, we are all there with you. I implore everyone to stay disciplined and resolved and we will all come out on the other side of this. I love you guys. [link] [comments]  |
| [Tinfoil ?] Current Market Drama: Could this be results from a hack? Read before making assumptions. Posted: 10 Feb 2018 02:15 AM PST Quick Introductory Short StorySo I enjoy playing a game called EVE Online: A Super Serious Spaceship Game. It's cool and fun but that's neither here nor there. It does, however, have an advanced in-game economy like none other and mimics the fundamentals of supply vs. demand similar to real world markets. Much like every other video game there is botting and I wanted to use the notorious EVE market bot as an example for a precursor (for the record botting is against the rules and will get you banned). I have never personally used any botting software but from what I understand and observed is the bot simply updates buy and sell orders once it realizes it's been outbid or undersold, keeping a profitable spread. With that being said some people have managed to pinpoint certain assets where multiple bots are active. They then manipulated the buy and sell orders with their own just enough that it resulted in a hilarious bid war between said bots that ultimately inflated price of said asset until one shut down.
Are Big Fund Market Algorithms Vulnerable?I would normally assume that investment firms, hedgefunds, etc. all have the best security and IT money can buy but the hacking of Equifax sorta took that hypothesis out back and shot it. It is probably safe to assume these algorithms used for position hedging are extremely complex and secure, however, could they be influenced by external factors? Much like the primitive EVE market bot I referenced earlier - I'm curious to how market algos would play out in a situation where they went unchecked with an active "offensive" market algo in play. This "offensive" market algo would be designed to throttle prices upward by influencing our market's algo tools into a bid war... in layman's terms. I understand the complexity and would prefer to not spend hours rabbling on how they work. One could hypothesize this would not be incredibly hard a task (for a group with relevant skills) if information was collected on said algos inner-workings... leads me to my next point.
Cyber Warfare and Recent HacksThere has been a drove of hacking lately with many U.S. entities falling victim, even as recent as this week. Some of these victims are very involved with the stock market such as investment platform Scottrade (2015), investment banking giant JP Morgan Chase & Co. (2014), and as previously mentioned Equifax. They mainly point towards "the data breaches" however I feel it's completely plausible malicious software could have been left behind to collect information on algorithmic tools utilized by said entities. It would also be possible for said hackers to pool small funds taken from each affected individual into a large fund. The large fund would later be used in offensive algo manipulation campaign. There has been a significant amount of news on various hackings but I feel it's probable that these stories are all smoke screens for something far more sinister. Anyway, what I'm getting at is the hypothetical possibility market algos could fall victim to external manipulating factors that would result in hyper inflated bubbles. These massive bubbles would expand from algos running wild against one another at which point the price is propped up only by the underlying botting battle.
Why Am I Pondering This?First off I know that a large portion of trading is done by real people. With that being said we can't neglect the exponentially increasing involvement of market algo tools processing massive orders every .001 second. I mean 9:30 to 10:30 am EA is essentially an episode of robot wars every day. A constant battle back and forth of hedging .005 cent trades to direct an underlying equity down or up into it's desired PT for the day. Put and option contracts are bought and sold as powerful computers process hedging software to calculate positions that minimize exposure long term. I'm rambling, sorry, anyway - algo vs. algo: what made me think about this besides a game about spaceships? Look at the volume. Seriously. Look at that explicit REE'ing Spoiler. The " Trump Bumpanddump " can only explain for so much before you realize "wait... there is a lot more going on there...". What the hell happened last year? Let me illustrate what I'm talking about.
NOTE I'm using Fidelity's Active Trader Pro platform w/ additional indicators specified below:
Take a look at the DOW Jones Industrial chart I MS Painted on: https://i.imgur.com/7EHCJrP.png Is it me or is that volume surge rediculous? Trading volume quadrupled+ and look at those over-bought indications complimenting the price rise.
Now take a look at the S&P 500 chart I also MS Painted on: https://i.imgur.com/qOQbb1L.png Same deal as the DOW... where is all that volume surge coming from?
I'm Tired Of Typing: My 2 CentsAs stated initially I am more curious about the potential than I am pointing fingers while holding the tin-foil cone firmly atop my head. The volume surge, over bought indicators, lack of correction, and exponential rise in pricing clearly indicates what could be interpreted as market algorithms battling one another. I am entertaining the idea that one or more hedge calculating tools were corrupted and/or altered to remove restrictions. This corruption or unrestricted state could thus be influenced upward outside of buy and sell order norms by offensive market algos. It's just a thought, interested in your feedback.
TL;DR: The DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P have another -10% move down to go as stocks become overheated. I'm also entertaining one of what could be a million reasons why the market is falling. [link] [comments]  |
| Stocks tracking for worst week since 2008, and it may get worse Posted: 09 Feb 2018 08:40 AM PST
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/09/stocks-tracking-for-worst-week-since-2008-and-it-may-get-worse.html [link] [comments]  |
| Why does Cramer keep saying this sell off is VIX related? Posted: 10 Feb 2018 01:31 AM PST |
| What are some other black swan events that have occurred in the past such as with XIV blowing up. Posted: 09 Feb 2018 08:22 PM PST Preferrable events that happened in a day timespan that caused a huge crash/upswing in stocks. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 10 Feb 2018 03:50 AM PST Would appreciate your thoughts in favor of one or the other. $HD is number one in home improvement, and has the better dividend payout/yield, but $LOW added three board members that sounds promising. Thanks for any thoughts. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 09 Feb 2018 07:05 PM PST I'm all in on VOO at $250 per share. I have no cash on hand. I have about 100k in buying power / margin. Is it worthwhile to use this opportunity to buy on margin while prices are low. Thanks in advance. New to investing. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 09 Feb 2018 08:07 PM PST One of my friends suggested opening a new savings account to take advantage of the free sign-up cash they give you so that got me wondering if the hive mind of Reddit could think of anything better. [link] [comments]  |
| Should you be investing in any manner when you have debt? Posted: 10 Feb 2018 02:50 AM PST This includes retirement. Or would it be better to focus on paying the debts off first? [link] [comments]  |
| [AMA Request] A prop trader (questions inside) Posted: 09 Feb 2018 08:46 PM PST
[link] [comments]  |
| Gold falls, Dollar falls, Dow falls, S&P falls. So where is all the cash piling up? Posted: 09 Feb 2018 08:49 AM PST Are quants and institutional investors just parking everything as cash? Because everything is falling, and nothing is rising. I understand why they wanted to take profits away from all the gamblers playing with options and derivatives, take their money, teach them a lesson. The time was ripe for that. But now they're sitting still on trillions of cash trapped inside a computer screen, like Warren Buffett and his 106 billion in cash reserves... ..... [link] [comments]  |
| $1 trillion treasury tsunami... a vicious cycle Posted: 09 Feb 2018 04:55 AM PST Could we be in a vicious cycle where the US has to sell over $1 trillion in treasuries this year, causing the supply of bonds to rise, driving up interest rates, which results in the US needing to issue more bonds to service the higher debt payments, which drives up rates more, which slows down the economy, requiring the govt to issue more debt because revenues decline, which causes interest rates to rise, so on and so forth.... [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 09 Feb 2018 10:52 AM PST I don't pay a ton to technical indicators, but this is one I think a lot of people will be looking at - a level that we have not fallen under since "Brexit" was announced and the "China Scare" (whatever that was). Extended chart to include context of what happened last time we hit 200 MDA Note that the last time we hit the 200MDA was the beginning of this massive bull run. [link] [comments]  |
| Silver as a currency/inflation hedge? Posted: 09 Feb 2018 04:37 PM PST So does it make reasonable sense to allocate around 5% of a portfolio to physical silver right now? With the challenges facing America's largest trading partners (China and Canada), as well as the USA itself, it seems to me like it is a reasonable position for smaller investors. And if all goes well, you should at least keep up with inflation, and if it is correct that "silver mines will be depleted in 15 years" (which seems hard to believe) silver should appreciate fairly well given its large industrial demand. I understand this is more of an allocation question than an "investment" question and that income bearing assets are investments and metals are rocks. To preemptively start any discussion on TIPS:
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| End-of-week Discussion (February 5 - 9) Posted: 09 Feb 2018 01:04 PM PST 5-day running totals (YTD) DOW Jones: -4.11% (-2.12%) S&P 500: -5.17% (-2.02%) NASDAQ: -5.15% (-0.42%) S&P/TSX (Canada): -3.50% (-7.09%) I suppose it could have been much worse, but a green ending to the week at least! [link] [comments]  |
| $160B defense budget increase thoughts? Posted: 09 Feb 2018 06:51 AM PST Thoughts on how this will effect Defense and Aerospace ETFs? Like ITA and others. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 09 Feb 2018 07:58 AM PST I have been placing about 5% of my portfolio in cash for some time with the idea that if things went south I would still have that 5%. I noticed that some robo-advisors (schwab) keep something like 12% in cash and they claim it is for when an opportunity comes along they can act on it. Would it make sense to take that 5% and buy a little every other day now that we are in a dip? [link] [comments]  |
| What's your correction short list? Who are you watching? Posted: 09 Feb 2018 09:35 AM PST I'm sure these posts are annoying, but it'd be a nice change from the news. Here's mine: V BA COST UPS (Down 20%!) BRKB [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 09 Feb 2018 09:39 AM PST I have a decent sum of money that I was hesitant at putting to work into the market in January. Many on reddit advised to buy anyway and not to try to time the market, but all my instincts were screaming danger when I saw the SPX going up in a straight line. I realize that part of this was due to chance, but I am glad to see a correction to more reasonable levels and most importantly a chance to put my money to work. My question is - what should my strategy be for buying this dip? The SPX 200 day moving average is at 2530 so we're really close to that. As far as I know this is supposed to be a strong area of support (buyers come in). However, looking back historically, it seems that it's quite common for the SPX to break under 200ma by 1-3%ish for a couple sessions before going back up. Should I buy when the SPX closes around 200ma, or wait for the breakthrough (I believe the latter would be called a "failed failure" trade) and at what level (eg 2470 etc). The money will all go into VTSAX/VTIAX btw. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 09 Feb 2018 04:23 PM PST I recently opened my Roth IRA, maxed out both 2017 and 2018, and then opened a betterment account, put in $2500 and set up an auto pay. This was all 6 months before this crash. I was feeling really good about all my decisions until now. And I'm not sure how I'm supposed to feel. I'm brand new to investing, this is all money that is outside of my emergency fund, and that I don't need immediate access to. I've heard all about "time in the market matters more than market timing" but with all my investments now in the negative value, I can't help but feel like I've made a mistake. Should I have not maxed out my IRA as soon as it turned 2018? Next year should I make gradual investments over the course of 12 months? Again, it's not money I'm planning to touch for years, but I still feel sick to my stomach. Is this part of the investing experience? Or did I just lose my nest egg by investing at a ridiculously lucrative time of the market. Help :( [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 09 Feb 2018 12:35 PM PST Stupid question, but I just noticed that the current correction started 3 days after the new Fed chair was appointed (at least that was the market high, after that it was downhill). Is it then safe to say that we're now in the "Jerome Powell" correction? Can somebody tell me if I'm just stupid or how this works. [link] [comments]  |
| Should we expect an increase in Roth IRA contributions limits soon? Posted: 09 Feb 2018 02:31 PM PST If wages are increasing and inflation follows, what's the likelihood that Congress would increase the annual contribution limits? [link] [comments]  |
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