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    Tuesday, February 8, 2022

    Stocks - If i were too invest 250k into s&p 500 and withdraw 5-10% annually…

    Stocks - If i were too invest 250k into s&p 500 and withdraw 5-10% annually…


    If i were too invest 250k into s&p 500 and withdraw 5-10% annually…

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 05:20 PM PST

    Given the avg ror is 10%. I feel like even if I withdraw 7% a year the 250k would grow over 20-40 years. Sure would be some negative years. Balance may read 125k one year. But would it not end up in the green long term? So long as our entire world doesnt crumble. I can live off 15k a year. So thinking of doing this.

    submitted by /u/Kyosinth
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    I think Peloton is going to tank hard after earnings tomorrow. Here's why...

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 07:18 PM PST

    Everything going on with Peloton recently is suspicious. They released preliminary quarterly results on January 20th on their investor relation page which only gave us a peek into their coming up short on expectations. The stock tanked 25% subsequently.

    Then we conviently get rumors about a possible acquisition after their preliminary report and the stock reclaimed the initial 25% drop.

    What this tells me is that their earnings are going to be horrible and they wanted to mitigate the blow the full earnings report will have on their stock price by having the price hit come in two waves with a pump in-between based on nothing but a maybe. We're witnessing some serious grasping and manipulation from a dying company trying to stay afloat.

    I predict we're going to see Peloton tank hard tomorrow on earnings after market close from not only a huge miss on EPS/revenue and declining subscriptions, but also from no further concrete acquisition news considering no savy suitors would buy an unprofitable company at their current overbloated valuation.

    What are your thoughts?

    Link to their preliminary report: https://investor.onepeloton.com/news-releases/news-release-details/peloton-interactive-inc-reports-preliminary-second-quarter/

    submitted by /u/tothemooon86
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    CEO of paypal bought share after drop first time in more than year he bought share. Looks like a positive signal

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 07:37 PM PST

    Paypal CEO Dan Schulman bought share of paypal on feb 3rd. He bought in first time in almost 2 years. He been seen selling his shares in the past. Does that sounds like a good move? It's always good to see insider buying. Maybe he know something or maybe he is predicting worst is over. What you guys think. Look at sec 4 form

    Edit: Sorry for my grammar https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391722000029/xslF345X03/edgardoc.xml

    submitted by /u/roubzzzz
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    I've heard from multiple sources that new home construction is going to be hit hard this year, what are some ways this can be played?

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 07:54 PM PST

    Hey everyone!

    Due to previous jobs I've held, I have a few friends who own residential construction companies here in the SE US. They've all been facing price increases and shortages, but from conversations I've had with them recently, it's starting to hit a drastic turning point.

    Last year it was mainly lumber shortages and price increases across the board for raw materials. This year though, they've all seen prices stabilize and settle down a bit, but the shortages are increasing rapidly and across a wide range of industries in construction. Here's just a few things they've told me are backlogged:

    • Sand
    • Corner beading
    • Conduit
    • Vinyl Siding
    • Cinder blocks
    • Drywall

    Mid-last year the backlog for a lot of these items was around 1-2 months, and they were usually able to secure some needed supplied from HD or Lowes. Right now though, it's more like 6-8 months and almost every big box store is sold out or drastically limited.

    In their own words: "Something will have to change soon, a collapse or a dip in the industry, otherwise these new developments that are cropping up will come to a grinding halt by the middle of the year, because we just can't get supplies out." Alarmist? Maybe, but I'd like to see if I can play this position at all.

    I imagine taking some long puts in a few residential construction companies or materials stocks? $MTH, $TPH, $LEN, $KBH, $EXP were my first thoughts. I'd love to hear any ideas or opinions!

    submitted by /u/ProfTables
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    SoftBank’s $66bn sale of chip group Arm to Nvidia collapses

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 04:40 PM PST

    SoftBank's $66bn sale of UK-based chip business Arm to Nvidia collapsed on Monday after regulators in the US, UK and EU raised serious concerns about its effects on competition in the global semiconductor industry, according to three people with direct knowledge of the transaction.

    The deal, the largest ever in the chip sector, would have given California-based Nvidia control of a company that makes technology at the heart of most of the world's mobile devices. A handful of big tech companies that rely on Arm's chip designs, including Qualcomm and Microsoft, had objected to the purchase.

    SoftBank will receive a break-up fee of up to $1.25bn and is seeking to unload Arm through an initial public offering before the end of the year, according to one of the people.

    The failure is set to result in a management upheaval at Arm, with chief executive Simon Segars being replaced by Rene Haas, head of the company's intellectual property unit, the person added.

    The collapse of the deal robs SoftBank of a big windfall it would have earned thanks to a boom in Nvidia's stock price.

    The cash-and-stock transaction was worth up to $38.5bn when it was announced in September 2020. But the value soared as Nvidia's shares took off, reaching a peak value of $87bn last November before the tech stock reversal.

    This is a developing story. More to follow.

    https://www.ft.com/content/59c0d5f9-ed6a-4de6-a997-f25faed58833

    submitted by /u/rockinoutwith2
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    Facebook/Meta Bulls what am I missing?

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 06:58 PM PST

    I am bearish on Facebook/Meta and to me, it seems like the beginning of the end of FB. Bulls what am I missing?

    Here's why I'm bearish:

    • FB misses earnings yet again blaming lack of ad revenue from Apple's privacy update. FB needs Apple, Google, and other websites to allow tracking of cookies for effective ads. If ads aren't effective, companies will quit paying and we are seeing that now.
    • Meta has put in a TON of money into the Metaverse and for the metaverse to be successful people need to come back form work/office and put on an oculus headset essentially until they go to bed. After lockdowns, I feel people need more face to face connection and would seek that rather than metaverse connection. I also feel ads would need to be successful inside of the metaverse and that is a big bet.
    • Peter Theil is now leaving Facebook after years at the company.
    submitted by /u/Fit_Rooster2702
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    Oil giant BP swings to huge profit as soaring commodity prices drive up earnings

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 11:31 PM PST

    The British energy major posted full-year underlying replacement cost profit, used as a proxy for net profit, of $12.8 billion. That compared with a net loss of $5.7 billion the previous year.

    Analysts polled by Refinitiv had expected full-year net profit of $12.5 billion.

    BP also posted fourth-quarter net profit of $4.1 billion, beating analyst expectations of $3.9 billion.

    Shares of BP are up over 23% year-to-date.

    A surge in global gas markets through the final months of 2021, coupled with an oil price rally to seven-year highs, has seen the world's largest fossil fuel giants rake in bumper revenues.

    Shell CEO Ben van Beurden described 2021 as a "momentous" year. As a result, the company outlined plans to buy back $8.5 billion in shares in the first half of the year and said it expects to increase its dividend by 4% to $0.25 per share in the first quarter.

    Stateside, oil giants Chevron and Exxon Mobil reported net profits of $15.6 billion and $23 billion, respectively, a huge upswing compared to the year prior when the coronavirus pandemic hit oil demand.

    Oil demand

    Global oil demand roared back in 2021, with gasoline and diesel use surging as consumers resumed travel and business activity recovered amid the coronavirus pandemic. Indeed, the International Energy Agency has noted mobility indicators remain robust even as Covid-19 is once again causing record infections.

    It marks a dramatic shift from 2020 when the oil and gas industry endured a dreadful 12 months by virtually every measure.

    Energy majors are seeking to reassure investors they have gained a more stable footing two years after Covid-19 first shook markets, and as shareholders and activists pile pressure on the firm's executives to take meaningful climate action.

    The world's largest oil and gas companies have all sought to strengthen their climate targets in recent years, but so far none have given investors confidence their business model is fully aligned to Paris Agreement targets.

    To be sure, it is the burning of fossil fuels such as oil and gas that is the chief driver of the climate emergency.

    submitted by /u/Crazyleggggs
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    Why do analysts recommend stocks that have are gaining revenue but losing earnings?

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 02:54 PM PST

    Relative noob to investing and valuation here. I notice a lot of professionals (and people on here) really high on companies, especially newer companies, that have rising revenue but falling earnings.

    Why are people favoring these companies? Isn't this a bad sign? SNOW would be a company that comes to mind.

    I'm a relative simpleton when it comes to this stuff, so please help educate me.

    submitted by /u/zeninthesmoke
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    Alternatives to $QYLD

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 02:06 PM PST

    I've seen a lot of posts about Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ET ($QYLD) and its outsized dividends, currently at 11.23%. I thought I would share some other options, and invite your opinions:

    • Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF ($RYLD) 11.89%
    • Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF ($XYLD) 8.39%
    • Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Glbl Buy-Write Oppty Fund ($ETW) 8.34%
    • Delaware Covered Call Strategy Fund; Institutional ($FRCDX) 0.50%
    • Madison Covered Call & Equity Strategy Fund ($MCN) 9.30%
    • Madison Covered Call & Equity Income Fund;Y ($MENYX) 4.32%
    • Covered Bridge Fund;I ($TCBIX) 1.28%
    • Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund; L ($UBVLX) 0.97%
    • First Trust BuyWrite Income ETF ($FTHI) 4.33%
    • Invesco S&P 500 BuyWrite ETF ($PBP) 0.87%
    • Gateway Equity Call Premium Fund; Y ($GCPYX) 0.61%

    I am sure this list is not comprehensive, so feel free to share what you know.

    Disclosure: I own QYLD, RYLD, XYLD, ETW, and MENYX

    submitted by /u/TheBarnacle63
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    Is there any good freeware to track my portfolio

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 07:35 PM PST

    Do you kids even say freeware or shareware any more? It would be out of sight if I could have all my stocks on one screen and track their activity during the day without all the mouse clicking and dragging. I know, I know, when its free I'm the product. Maybe I just need you to talk me out of being so lazy.

    submitted by /u/IWasSwimmingInIt
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    Is basing risk reward ratio off of ADR and intrinsic value a good idea for swing trading?

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 06:43 PM PST

    I am curious. I don't think it should be static across all stocks. Like, if a company has a 5% ADR I would place a higher ratio than a huge market cap company with low ADR I would also look into it's intrinsic value too like how "Investing with Tom" does on YouTube. I would also look at ADR over the last 3 months and likely intrinsic value over the last year as I swing trade.

    submitted by /u/AnonCuriosities
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    The Best Real Estate Stocks

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 05:48 PM PST

    I am recently getting into REITs and want to add to my portfolio with 1 or 2 new REITs. Does anyone have some of their favorite companies that have good revenue, consistent and strong tenets, and strong leadership? Thank you in advance.

    submitted by /u/jtrichjr
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    Anyone looking at LNG with the Russia situation going on?

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 10:00 PM PST

    I'm sensing a major shift in geopolitics going on with Russia starting to get more aggressive militarily. If they invade Ukraine it is going to have a major paradigm shift for the rest of the European countries. They will suddenly start to realize they'll need to diversify away from Russian gas. So demand for LNG on the global market is going to soar.

    I'm sensing this could spark a new bull market in LNG and anyone who has export terminals in countries with low gas prices is going to make a killing by owning the LNG export terminals.

    To make the proposition even more appealing, many of these oil and gas companies are trading at stupid cheap valuations.

    Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/Massive-Lychee-4518
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    Quest Sells - Perhaps early proof of demand for the Metaverse?

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 02:35 PM PST

    https://www.pcgamesn.com/steam/hardware-survey-january-2022

    Disclaimer: I hold FB

    Meta has a lot of issues. One of the commonly cited ones is lack of demand for the Metaverse. Does the stunning uptake of the Quest 2 prove that demand exists? The Quest 2 is being sold at cost currently. But the technology seems to be getting better and cheaper rapidly. Probably not quickly enough for the Quest 3, but on a premium product like Project Cambria, we could be seeing profit. And even at the low end, perhaps on the Quest 4...

    What do you guys make of it?

    submitted by /u/The-Curious-Koala
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    Advice - $Ford

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 04:59 PM PST

    I invested (gambled?) March 18 Ford 20C. Right before the earnings, not much about 1600$ was invested. My theory was the recent drop, their RIVN non accounting and the hope they will beat, except for EPS everything was as per my expectation. I don't know if I should hold or cut my losses, how are you guys managing your ford positions? Any thoughts or advice or general discussion

    submitted by /u/hemi2hell
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    ? - Old traders. Did you always think we were at the top?

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 04:56 PM PST

    Common benchmark is S&P500 gains 7-10% annually.

    Those who were heavy into trading since decades ago, could you imagine the markets being where they are today?

    It's hard for me to invest thinking we could see a 10K S&P500 in the future. What's realistic? Is it going to be good for younger generations as it has for past?

    submitted by /u/Rj_LM
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