Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Jan 21, 2022 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Jan 21, 2022
- Disney is now trading at same price as before pandemic ($137)
- ‘Good luck! We’ll all need it’: U.S. market approaches end of ‘superbubble,’ says Jeremy Grantham
- We are seeing the effects of tapering
- Pelosi says she's open to stock trading ban for Congress
- Next week will be insane!
- I need a drink
- Devastated and depressed, any advice?
- So how much are you down after this week?
- "All $ARKK buyers since July 2020 are under water."
- Markets can correct through price or through time.
- Intel to Invest at Least $20 Billion in New Chip Factories in Ohio
- Current Dip!
- Buy a house in today's environment or invest and wait until the housing market cools off?
- Here is a Market Recap for today Friday, January 21, 2022.
- Big names hit earnings next week!
- Dip in AMZN, NFLX, AAPL, EFX.
- Discussion: the ‘market crash’ has already happend|Is happening right now
- $COIN Stock: What am I missing?
- Stocks Youve been waiting for to be this low? Golden opportunities?
- Fed rate hikes are coming. The question is how much.
- Pelosi says U.S. House will soon introduce competitiveness bill (USICA/Chips Act)
- Is Home Depot (NYSE: HD) the stock with the single largest percent increase in stock price over time?
- which blue chips/best of breed are looking most attractive right now?
- IMF warning to FED on raising interest rates
- S&P500 Before and After Fed's Interest Rate Changes since 2015
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Jan 21, 2022 Posted: 21 Jan 2022 02:30 AM PST This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on fundamentals, but if fundamentals aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against fundamentals here and not in the current post. Some helpful day to day links, including news:
Most fundamentals are updated every 3 months due to the fact that corporations release earnings reports every quarter, so traders are always speculating at what those earnings will say, and investors may change the size of their holdings based on those reports. Expect a lot of volatility around earnings, but it usually doesn't matter if you're holding long term, but keep in mind the importance of earnings reports because a trend of declining earnings or a decline in some other fundamental will drive the stock down over the long term as well. See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki: If you have a basic question, for example "what is EBITDA," then google "investopedia EBITDA" and click the Investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. Useful links:
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments] |
| Disney is now trading at same price as before pandemic ($137) Posted: 21 Jan 2022 11:36 AM PST This really blows my mind. Pros for Disney:
Possible cons:
I already hold some Disney (bagholding at $170) so I don't think I'm going to buy more for now. But have sold a 30 day expiration put for $120 strike price. [link] [comments] |
| ‘Good luck! We’ll all need it’: U.S. market approaches end of ‘superbubble,’ says Jeremy Grantham Posted: 21 Jan 2022 10:34 AM PST The U.S. is approaching the end of a "superbubble" spanning across stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities following massive stimulus during the COVID pandemic, potentially leading to the largest markdown of wealth in its history once pessimism returns to rule markets, according to legendary investor Jeremy Grantham. "For the first time in the U.S. we have simultaneous bubbles across all major asset classes," said Grantham, co-founder of investment firm GMO, in a paper Thursday. He estimated wealth losses could total $35 trillion in the U.S. should valuations across major asset classes return two-thirds of the way to historical norms. "One of the main reasons I deplore superbubbles — and resent the Fed and other financial authorities for allowing and facilitating them — is the underrecognized damage that bubbles cause as they deflate," said Grantham. The Federal Reserve doesn't seem to "get" asset bubbles, said Grantham, pointing to the "ineffably massive stimulus for COVID" (some of which he said was necessary) that followed stimulus to recover from the bust of the 2006 housing bubble. "The only 'lesson' that the economic establishment appears to have learned from the rubble of 2009 is that we didn't address it with enough stimulus," he said. Equity bubbles tend to begin to deflate from the riskiest parts of the market first — as the one that Grantham is warning about has been doing since February 2021, according to his paper. "So, good luck!" he wrote. "We'll all need it." [link] [comments] |
| We are seeing the effects of tapering Posted: 21 Jan 2022 06:03 PM PST The market is red, it's down. People are panicking, saying their portfolio is down 50%. I believe the main reason is tapering. We just had a year of fake gains. A lot of fake money was pumped into the system, it pumped up overvalued companies even more. So when someone asks you why the entire market is down for no reason, remember, tapering is happening, and it's happening quicker than before. Traders are probably panicking when they see volumes of trade decrease. They exit their positions, stressing out the people around them. It's a chain reaction, and I think it's just the beginning. There is more tapering waiting for us, and then, the interest hikes will begin. Let me know what y'all think. [link] [comments] |
| Pelosi says she's open to stock trading ban for Congress Posted: 20 Jan 2022 11:38 PM PST Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Thursday appeared to suggest she is open to a ban on stock trading by members of Congress. Asked about the issue during her weekly press conference, Pelosi said she trusts lawmakers but would be willing to back a ban if it had the support of her caucus. Later in her response, however, she added, "To give a blanket attitude of we can't do this and we can't do that because we can't be trusted, I just don't buy into that. But if members want to do that, I'm OK with that." Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/590665-pelosi-says-shes-open-to-stock-trading-ban-for-congress [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 21 Jan 2022 04:50 PM PST Next week, some of reddit's most mentioned companies will have earnings. And the earnings of Tesla, Microsoft and Apple are really going to determine how things will look for the next few months. Next week earnings include:
Full list of companies with earnings: [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 21 Jan 2022 01:58 PM PST Guys/gals, I think it's fair to say that we'll all need some drinks (except the guy who turns 36k into 880k buying NFLX puts). For the longest time, my position was always "unrealized loss is a real loss" and I always chucked a little when someone else said otherwise. After a few drinks, I think I begin to see their positions. Maybe drinks open my mind to newer concepts or I just look for a way to sleep better. You see, I never realized anything on my 401k and I never worry about the down days in 2008, 2018, the covid crash, etc. So why, all of a sudden, I worry so much about the unrealized loss in taxable accounts. Either way, may all your options print next week and all your bags get less heavy. I may need to sacrifice a goat to the market god. Have a good weekend. [link] [comments] |
| Devastated and depressed, any advice? Posted: 21 Jan 2022 11:20 PM PST So my portfolio is down from 1.2m to 350k this year. I was devastated and have been depressed for quite some time now. I make a humble income and this portfolio is most of my networth, so this has been incredibly difficult for me. That being said, I would like some advice from here. Some may think I trade high-risk options with that kind of money. Actually not really, my holdings include Nio, Tesla, Eyes, Joby, Sofi, Aht, Btx, Mp, Cpe, Arkg, Arkk, Spce, Dkng, Fubo, Amc, Clov, Rlx, etc. I used 10-20% margin at some point that looked like buying opportunities which I shouldn't have of course. Most of the time I just buy and hold (I didn't even buy at the highest price). When stocks keep going down, I buy more. I don't know how it happened but many of these stocks have gone down 70%+?? I don't have any cash now and my portfolio is down 70%. I even sold some covered calls to hedge. What's incredibly scary is that many experts keep saying a crash/recession coming soon. I don't know what I'm supposed to think or do. Cutting losses now??? My stocks have crashed so hard already except Tesla, Mp, Cpe. I really don't know what a crash means for those ultra growth stocks which have gone down 80% already?..and it's been very difficult for me to cut losses at this deep (and I don't know if there's still a point in doing so) Luckily I'm no longer on margin and I didn't invest all my savings. So I'm not desperately in need of the 350k right now and can wait maybe 3-5 years. But what to do now? should I sell everything or keep my holdings or revise my portfolio? I can't really afford to lose the money in the long run. And all this in the past year has been hurting my mental health. Anyone has any advice? [link] [comments] |
| So how much are you down after this week? Posted: 21 Jan 2022 08:10 PM PST I thought it might be cathartic for people to share their losses after this brutal week. I'm down about 40k from my ATH. Luckily I'm 40% cash now but it definitely sucks seeing so many months of unrealized gains disappear in a week. So many stocks I was up 50-100+% that I'm now just about breaking even or even losing money. And of course my losers are just getting absolutely destroyed like my ARK shares. So how are you all doing? [link] [comments] |
| "All $ARKK buyers since July 2020 are under water." Posted: 21 Jan 2022 02:22 PM PST Sven Henrich posted a chart on his Twitter feed showing ARKK has dropped to July 2020 levels. My condolences to any bagholders. https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1484536558648762368?cxt=HHwWgIC5pc-IkZopAAAA read the replies. some funny stuff in there [link] [comments] |
| Markets can correct through price or through time. Posted: 21 Jan 2022 12:07 PM PST I see a lot of posts about 30% or greater crash ahead but not a lot about a "third option" which would be a correction based on time: meaning that we trade sideways for weeks-months until we have the longer and stronger support EMA's or MA's catch up to our current position. Be prepared for volatility and whipsaw movements that ultimately go nowhere and tire out both bulls and bears before the next clear market direction. Many people waiting on a full blown crash to get out of their cash positions may be waiting on something that may never actually happen. Gl to everyone just wanted to throw out another possible route for markets to take. [link] [comments] |
| Intel to Invest at Least $20 Billion in New Chip Factories in Ohio Posted: 21 Jan 2022 04:19 AM PST https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/21/technology/intel-chip-factories-ohio.html Intel has selected Ohio for a new chip manufacturing complex that would cost at least $20 billion, ramping up an effort to increase U.S. production of computer chips as users grapple with a lingering shortage of the vital components. Intel said Friday that the new site near Columbus would initially have two chip factories and would directly employ 3,000 people, while creating additional jobs in construction and at nearby businesses. Patrick Gelsinger, who became Intel's chief executive last year, has rapidly increased the company's investments in manufacturing to help reduce U.S. reliance on foreign chip makers while lobbying Congress to pass incentives aimed at increasing domestic chip production. He has said that Intel might invest as much as $100 billion over a decade in its next U.S. manufacturing campus, linking the scope and speed of that expansion to expected federal grants if Congress approves a spending package known as the CHIPS Act. "We will go bigger and broader if it gets funded," Mr. Gelsinger, 60, said in a recent interview. "But our recovery plans don't rely on the CHIPS act." President Biden will meet with Mr. Gelsinger at the White House on Friday to discuss the project, Intel said. Administration officials have aggressively pushed the CHIPS Act. Intel's move has geopolitical implications, as well as significance for supply chains. Chips, which act as the brains of computers and many other devices, are largely manufactured in Taiwan, which China has expressed territorial claims toward. During the pandemic, they have also been in short supply because of overwhelming demand and Covid-related disruptions to manufacturing and labor supply, raising questions about how to ensure a consistent chip pipeline. The move is Intel's first to a new state for manufacturing in more than 40 years. The company, based in Silicon Valley, has U.S. factories in Oregon, New Mexico and Arizona. Last March, Mr. Gelsinger chose an existing complex near Phoenix for a $20 billion expansion, which is now underway. [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 21 Jan 2022 12:27 PM PST For those who are feeling the heat, the current dip (for QQQ) is 50% of what we had during the Covid in 2020. If you think a stock and it's PE ratio, growth are reasonable, just buy the dip (50% of your ammo) and keep DCAing for the rest. Edit: added QQQ [link] [comments] |
| Buy a house in today's environment or invest and wait until the housing market cools off? Posted: 21 Jan 2022 03:13 PM PST Let's say you have finally saved a lot of cash and can purchase a house (200k in cash with a stable monthly income working in accounting). The setting is Southern California where like the rest of the world, housing prices are insane and have gone up 20% in a year. Other factors are no debt, married, no kids. Would you buy a house now(down payment would be about 150k) or invest the 200k into the market and wait until the housing market cools off? I understand rates are rising and housing inventory is awful but I don't want to get priced out. While I understand most people will say consult a financial advisor instead of Reddit, I'm curious what other people would do. [link] [comments] |
| Here is a Market Recap for today Friday, January 21, 2022. Posted: 21 Jan 2022 01:09 PM PST PsychoMarket Recap - Friday, January 21, 2022 The stock market sank lower today to close out the worst week in the market since March 2020, as technology and growth stocks continued their sell-off amid elevated inflation, a hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve, and the start of earnings season. Markets Today
So-called stay-at-home stocks, which greatly outperformed the market during the depth of the pandemic, have cratered back to Earth, with many trading at or around pre-pandemic levels. Shares of Netflix (NFLX) fell roughly 23% lower after the company posted a disappointing subscriber growth numbers, with the company projecting 2.5 million new users for the first quarter of 2022 versus the 6.3 million anticipated, according to Bloomberg data. Shares of Disney (DIS) and Roku (ROKU) fell in sympathy. Meanwhile, Peloton (PTON) stock has fallen below its IPO price after the company after the company announced it was cutting production of its product, citing waning demand. Mark Luschini, Chief Investment Strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, said "It is hese infamous stay-at-home plays ... that had been bid up to valuations that get to the point where they're priced for perfection. Anything that is released about the companies' investment results or prospects that doesn't meet or exceed very elevated expectations leads to gigantic disappointment in the form of a share price decline." Recent market volatility can be attributed to the multidecade jump in consumer and producer prices reported last week, which served as a reminder that inflation remains the key driver of risk and uncertainty in the year ahead. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 7% in December compared to a year ago, the fastest pace of increase since 1982 and the eighth straight month in which inflation exceeded 5%. Excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, core CPI rose 5.5%, the most since 1991. Like last year, inflation in the prices of goods played a large part in the jump. For example, prices of used cars and trucks soared 37%, and furniture prices rose 14% from a year ago. While pandemic-related supply-and-demand imbalances continue to drive prices for durable goods higher, services inflation is also strengthening but to a lesser extent, rising 3.7% in December. On the other hand, the producer price index (PPI) showed a 9.7% year-over-year increase in prices paid by producers, the biggest jump since 2010. Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, came in at 8.3%. The extent to the rise in prices caused the Fed to pivot to a more hawkish stance, with policy suggesting the Central Bank stance is shifting from supporting the economy and the labor market to combating ongoing inflation. With higher prices persisting at a higher level than originally expected, members of the Fed are now calling for three to four interest rate hikes next year, with the earliest projected for March 2022. Jeffrey Kleintop, Chief Global Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, said "I think there is a rotation going on towards those areas of the market that have been neglected for a long time — not just months, but years. Areas like financials and energy. Even health care, which is an area that had done a bit better during the pandemic really isn't seeing any kind of multiples as it did in the past. I think those areas of the market have more durability here as we look at an environment where earnings growth is slowing so valuations matter more," he added. "And many of these companies can look to generate earnings growth in this environment of rising interest rates and commodity prices, whereas tech is a bit more challenged as goods demand begins to slow." A gauge of future U.S. economic activity increased solidly in December, suggesting the expansion would continue despite challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic and anticipated interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve to tame high inflation. The Conference Board's closely watched Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.8% in December, matching consensus estimates, according to Bloomberg data. This picked up from November's 0.7% clip, which was downwardly revised from the 1.1% gain previously reported. Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at the Conference Board, said "The U.S. LEI ended 2021 on a rising trajectory, suggesting the economy will continue to expand well into the spring. For the first quarter, headwinds from the Omicron variant, labor shortages, and inflationary pressures—as well as the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate hikes—may moderate economic growth. The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth for Q1 2022 to slow to a relatively healthy 2.2 percent (annualized). Still, for all of 2022, we forecast the US economy will expand by a robust 3.5 percent—well above the pre-pandemic trend growth." "A gem cannot be polished without friction, nor a person perfected without trials." - Seneca [link] [comments] |
| Big names hit earnings next week! Posted: 21 Jan 2022 05:44 PM PST As the title says, we have some big name companies such as McDonald's, Tesla, and Apple dropping earnings reports next week. I'm interested to see what people think is gonna happen. Who is going up, who is going down and why do you think it will happen? [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 21 Jan 2022 07:28 PM PST AMZN - 12% drop this week NFLX - 24% drop this week AAPL - 6% drop this week EFX - 9% drop this week Many big names are doing a dip this week to levels most of them haven't seen in many months or even years. AMZN especially just dropped 6% today alone, normally I would think buy buy buy. Should I be wary of this and wait a bit or put in buy orders ASAP? [link] [comments] |
| Discussion: the ‘market crash’ has already happend|Is happening right now Posted: 22 Jan 2022 01:45 AM PST All this talk about claiming a stock market crash is bound to happen, I'm here to tell you it's happening while you're waiting for it. In the past all we've seen were 'unexpected sudden' crashes (for the avg joe that is). So how do market makers crash the market learning from the past and make money whilst it happens ? (Great depression '08, COVID etc) The market has been in a steady but 'slow' decline over the last couple week (months). Whilst everyone is waiting for a 50% decline, it's happening 5-10% at a time, while everyone has been Galkin about and waiting for it. Alot of new investors and experienced ones even have begun to worry. In conclusion; the 'crash' has been 'completed' for 70% at this point. Not financial advice. [link] [comments] |
| $COIN Stock: What am I missing? Posted: 21 Jan 2022 06:01 PM PST $COIN is trading at a P/E of 14 currently. I am expecting this sector to grow a lot in the next 5 years. Every analyst I have heard discuss the subject is calling the sector a "one way street." I know there are a lot of Boomers and Gen-Xers who think the sector is fundamentally worthless or overvalued, and it may or may not be, but Coinbase is the way in. The negatives for the stock that I see are that it trades like its value is pegged to the value of the sector's market cap, so it's a lot more volatile than a growth stock with a 14 P/E should be. There's regulation risk (somehow the whole sector could collapse) but I don't think that's likely at all. It also seems to be lumped in with 2021 SPACs and IPOs as a group which have really underperformed. But the lowest analyst target for the stock is $220 and it closed at $191 today. The market seems to hate this stock. But growth at 14:1 is CHEAP. Apart from negative sentiment about the underlying goods, and the fact that it trades like a proxy for the underlying for some reason right now, why isn't this stock a long term buy and hold at its current price? I have a couple leaps at the $200 strike dated 2024. FYI. [link] [comments] |
| Stocks Youve been waiting for to be this low? Golden opportunities? Posted: 21 Jan 2022 11:07 AM PST When the market is low is when you get the opportunity to buy really good companies for cheap. I'm talking stocks that never dip and go up like almost a 1 every week on average lets say. Something like TMO. Visa is an example- usually hella green but at a 20% discount rn roughly. My question is - which sexci daddy stocks finally went down that you have been waiting for? [link] [comments] |
| Fed rate hikes are coming. The question is how much. Posted: 21 Jan 2022 06:33 PM PST Part of the reason the market is diving is that Fed rate hikes are widely expected to happen very soon. That is a known. What is unknown is what the rate increases will be and how frequently they will occur. It is a possibility that the Fed announces a minimal 1/4% rate increase at a moderate frequency and the market begins a rebound. Thoughts? [link] [comments] |
| Pelosi says U.S. House will soon introduce competitiveness bill (USICA/Chips Act) Posted: 21 Jan 2022 06:31 AM PST WASHINGTON, Jan 21 (Reuters) - U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Friday the House of Representatives would soon introduce its bill on competitiveness, which would help bolster semiconductor investment. "The House legislation will supercharge our investment in chips, strengthen our supply chain and transform our research capacity, plus many other key provisions," Pelosi said in a letter to Democratic colleagues. More info behind paywall: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-20/pelosi-says-house-close-on-china-competition-chips-aid-bill [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 21 Jan 2022 03:25 PM PST I'm seeing a percent increase of 872,650% in Home Depot's stock price from the day it first went public, and it got me thinking. Does it get any bigger than this? Is Home Depot the dream stock our parent's should've thrown all their cash into in the 80's? For reference, here are some other stocks for comparison (% increase of stock price since the stock went public, using google finances): Amazon = 164,805% Tsla = 24,480% Apple = 180,355% Microsoft = 295,930% AMD = 4,039% Intel = 86,633% Lowes = 93,658% Berkshire Hathaway = 6,360% Updated: 163,700%** Adobe: 227,131% Walmart: 45,122% Nothing comes even close to those Home Depot gains though. Can anyone think of one? [link] [comments] |
| which blue chips/best of breed are looking most attractive right now? Posted: 21 Jan 2022 07:34 AM PST I just bought a share of TGT and put in a buy order for JPM. Thinking of amazon, msft...costco, sbux....curious what blue chips you guys think look best today for long holds.... please stick specifically to blue chips or those near blue chip territory (understanding definitions may differ for each of us). thanks. Thanks [link] [comments] |
| IMF warning to FED on raising interest rates Posted: 21 Jan 2022 11:22 AM PST "…biggest concern is for low income countries with high levels of this debt, highlighting that two-thirds were now either in "debt distress" or in danger of falling into it — that's twice as many as in 2015." I posted an article the other day where XI was saying a similar thing and rather predictably it got a lot of comments by people throwing insults at China without much thought of the topic. Will the fed use this as an excuse to backtrack on aggressive policy.. now they have given the markets a little shakedown? [link] [comments] |
| S&P500 Before and After Fed's Interest Rate Changes since 2015 Posted: 21 Jan 2022 02:26 PM PST Numerical table showing how the S&P500 behaved before and after federal interest rate changes. Table: https://imgur.com/a/PQPMehk
Edit: added inflation data to the original table [link] [comments] |
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