Stocks - Jeremy Grantham in 2010: "Have cash, wait for stocks to fall". "The S&P 500 is dangerously overpriced, should go down -25%". |
- Jeremy Grantham in 2010: "Have cash, wait for stocks to fall". "The S&P 500 is dangerously overpriced, should go down -25%".
- Listening to market expert analyses feels completely useless and empty of actionable information
- Jeremy Grantham calling for a 50% crash of the "super bubble"
- I just found out that nobody knows anything
- What stocks to sell to buy property
- Sony's Spiderman tops U.S box office in it's 7th weekend
- Any Stocks Simulators or Games about Stock trading?
- People who work in service industries, have you noticed a drop in spending?
- Watchlist growing like a weed
- Spotify could be undervalued ($SPOT)
- Moderna’s HIV Vaccine Has Officially Begun Human Trials
- GOOG VS AMZN
- Owning TSLA, APPL, MSFT. What are some must-have tech stocks?
- A warning about Robinhood Stock
- Question about the way people shorted the housing crisis
- How to Calualte annual dividend yield on a portfolio.
- What're the risks of selling below bvps on high volatility stocks?
- Nuclear Fusion scientists hit a key milestone in pollution-free technology.
- Was Google or Apple or Tesla ever part of the Russell 2000?
- What are your thoughts about SalesForce (CRM)
- When does a growth stock become a value stock?
- Long term investing with ISA or without (UK)
- I would love to hear thoughts on cybersecurity stocks, mainly S(SentinelOne) and CRWD(Crowdstrike)
- Stocks/Options Tax Help
- Why is Lending Tree’s stock price not correlated with the housing market?
| Posted: 30 Jan 2022 06:56 PM PST STOP listening to this bear, these are not bears, they're clowns, seriously this joke that bears have predicted 17 of the last 2 crashes is not even a joke anymore, this dude is the living embodiment of that statement. Last year during the march-may selloff in 2021, this dude said in an interview that the crash has started, and then the S&P 500 went on to close +26.89% for the year. If you followed this guys advice and held cash in 2010, waiting for his prediction to come true, you'd have waited for about 8-10 years on the sidelines until the market had a selloff in late 2018, or when Covid19 crashed the stock market in 2020. By then you'd have lost much more money on the sidelines, than if you'd just let your money grow in the market throughout all those years. Even if you had just listened to his advice last year during the march selloff and sold, then you'd lose out on being up +26.89% if you'd have invested in the indexes instead of listening to him. Again stop giving these clowns attention, if the market doesn't crash this year and it starts recovering and people get their confidence back in the market, and we have another rally, this dude will say that the market will crash next year, and if that doesn't happen, he'll say it will crash in 2024, and so on and on and on. Let's rememeber somethings everybody gets taught the moment they start investing: You can't time the market, you can't predict what the market will do, time in the market beats timing the market. [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Listening to market expert analyses feels completely useless and empty of actionable information Posted: 30 Jan 2022 09:43 AM PST I am not sure if I am the only one but recently I came to the conclusion that reading any type of market news, expert analyses and opinions is completely useless and does not and can not inform decisions in any meaningful way. Here is a distilled outline of pretty much every expert analysis I have read in the past month:
Now the problem with the prediction part and why I put it in quotes is that when you parse all the jargon and verbiage - this is more difficult with the "better" experts - they can talk a lot and talk well. But what you get once you distill it all is this:
where the condition is something you cannot predict. So in principle, their "prediction" comes down to "if prices go up then they go up". One example for all:
However, since there is no way to predict whether the invasion will happen, this prediction is totally empty of any useful information. It is equivalent to saying "in case prices drop they drop", because of course once the information is out that the invasion happened, the market will react much faster than we can act on it. Do you also have similar experience with reading expert analyses/predictions/opinions? Do you even feel like it makes sense to listen to them? How do you use them? [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Jeremy Grantham calling for a 50% crash of the "super bubble" Posted: 30 Jan 2022 03:40 PM PST I've been watching a lot of contrarian interviews lately and I decided to fire up Jeremy Grantham from his latest Bloomberg interview. I found him extremely intelligent and dare I say a permabear? Anyways I'm not sure if he's right this time, but I tend to lean to him maybe being mostly right now. I'm 30% cash just in case. Tonight though I was watching one from 2010 when the sp500 was 1200 and he said something like "all indications point to a drop to 900"! Well I'm not sure if that happened following 2010, but if you zoom out the market had one of the greatest runs over the following years! Just shows you that just Because it seems like someone makes sense and is very intelligent doesnt mean they're always right about everything. So I'm not sure about the 50% crash now lol! [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| I just found out that nobody knows anything Posted: 30 Jan 2022 01:56 PM PST I lied, i actually already knew this. Its obvious that nobody knows for certain whats going to happen, thats like a brain-dead fact. you don't gotta be a genius to figure that one out. edit: sorry I'm just ranting lol. tired of all the, "Nobody knows anything" posts. just had to say it [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| What stocks to sell to buy property Posted: 30 Jan 2022 04:55 PM PST I hope my stock question fits here. I bought some stocks over a year ago and now I need to sell some or all for a down payment on a property. NVDA +57% , TSLA+26%, GOOG +141%, AAPL +28% , JPM +61% = $7200 total gain- BABA - 49%, BIDU-52%, SPCE -80%, ARKK -76%, POTX -73%, ZSAN -76% -$5800 total loss Should I Cut my loses on the bad stock and convert it into real estate investment? Cash in the good stock, and let the loosing stock long term hope for an improvement? Sell equal percentage from both? [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Sony's Spiderman tops U.S box office in it's 7th weekend Posted: 30 Jan 2022 06:48 PM PST Spider-Man: No Way Home took the top ranking in the U.S. box office chart for the sixth time in seven weeks, with $10.4 million in ticket sales from 3,675 screens. While "Spider-Man: No Way Out" did not have any new major films to swat away at the box office, it had to deal with Saturday's snowstorm that closed many theaters in the Northeast. No Way Home made 1.7billion worldwide so far. Sony release has accumulated $735.2 million from the U.S. box office, putting it within range of surpassing the all-time champion "Avatar" with $760.5 million. [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Any Stocks Simulators or Games about Stock trading? Posted: 30 Jan 2022 10:38 PM PST I'd love to start trading but I would not be able to learn it while using real money. Too big of a risk right now. But it got me thinking. Surely like there are video games for mechanics, or some that teach you languages, surely there's got to be a game out there which teaches you stock trading really well. I figured here was as good a place to ask as any so, does anyone know of a game that teaches you the in's and out's of stock trading in a realistic way so you can learn the system before putting actual money into it? [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| People who work in service industries, have you noticed a drop in spending? Posted: 30 Jan 2022 01:59 AM PST I ask this from a thread regarding Uber drivers and these quotes stood out to me: "I'm a bartender at a restaurant and I've talked to other friends in restaurants and we're all slower than ever. I just think with such a high percentage of people having omicron or being in contact with someone people aren't going out much." " I am posting this for investors in Uber and Lyft because this month my earnings driving rideshare have fallen off a cliff. I'm talking about dropping from 2K a week down to $300-$600 a week. I see this sentiment repeated by other rideshare drivers in the relevant subs and it seems to be happening around the U.S. in all regions." I am anecdotally VERY concerned about consumer spending numbers for quarter 1. January is typically a slow month, but everything looks absolutely deserted on weekends compared to what I've seen for the last 3-4 months. I've seen some restaurants crowded, but in general bars/clothing stores/etc are way less crowded than usual imo especially on weekends. What are your experiences? [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 30 Jan 2022 11:24 PM PST Does anybody else have a watchlist that grows daily? That's filled with dozens of companies that you feel strongly will succeed and grow? So many that you don't even know where to start investing? I read about a company and feel the conviction of their product and see the potential and click that cute little ➕ to add to my watchlist,hell almost daily. I go back and check the list and get lost in this vicious cycle looking at them, refamiliarizing myself with them, only to not know how to pick my next move. I'd love to hear how you guys manage to sort through the pile. Maybe even how to further segregate it in tiers or something. I've been investing about 8 months and fall victim to the overwhelming volume of info out there. [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Spotify could be undervalued ($SPOT) Posted: 30 Jan 2022 11:42 AM PST Spotify had huge volatility in the share price in the last 1.5 years, so I decided to take a look at the business, understand how they make money, analyze their historical performance, and lay down some assumptions to assess its intrinsic value. Below are the outcomes: Spotify adds value to the users by providing content in the form of music/podcasts and it is definitely a disruptive platform. Fundamentally, they have two types of users:
The revenue growth in 2017 was close to 40%, then in 2018 and 2019 it was close to 30%, now it is close to 20%. Even though the company is growing the total revenue, these are declining growth rates. The # of premium users has increased from 71m in 2017 to 172m reported in the last quarter (Q3-2021). However, the average monthly revenue per user has been declining from €5.32 to €4.25 in the same period. Is it worrying? It depends. I see two reasons that can justify this decline in the average revenue per user:
So, we have two types of users that bring revenue to the company and a gross margin that's at around 27%. Once they cover the cost of the content, they need to cover the SG&A, R&D, and Sales/marketing expenses. Currently, they're at a point where they're covering that and they have an operating margin of close to 0%. So, looking into the future, as the economy of scale kicks in, I expect them to have a positive operating margin. How high? My assumption is 13% and here's why: I can see them improve the gross margin and get it as high as 30% and over time, the Sales/marketing expenses and SG&A should be lower as % of the revenue. For the R&D, it could be that they remain to pour funds into that for a longer period. Of course, if you disagree with me on this assumption, at the end of this post I have a table that shows the valuation based on different scenarios (revenue growth / operating margin) From a balance sheet point of view, there's nothing worrying. About 60% of the balance sheet (amounting to €4.3bn) is cash/cash-equivalents, short-term investments, and long-term investments. They have only €1.2bn in long-term debt and about €600m in capital leases. If you are confused about why I am using Euros, Spotify is a company based in Sweden and it reports all the financial numbers in Euros. So, I'll be valuing the company in the same currency and once I have the value, I'll convert that to USD to compare it with the market price. So, here are my assumptions about the future: Revenue growth - 20% in the next year, then 17% for the following 4 years and then slowly declining to the euros risk-free rate. Operating margin - 0% for the next year, then improving overtime to get to the 13% in the next 6 years Reinvestment ratio - 4 (Sales to capital) - Mainly in acquisitions as they have a lot of cash that they need to put in use and possible opening a few more offices around the world Tax rate - 25% - although as they have €2.2bn in tax credits, they won't be paying any for quite some years. WACC - 9.5% Based on these assumptions, with a DCF model, the outcome is €174.26 or in USD - $193.43 I personally didn't see any fundamental change in what they've been doing or how they were growing over time that justifies the share price increase in the last 1.5 years so the decline was pretty much expected from a fundamental point of view. Below is an overview of the value of the company based on different assumptions related to revenue growth (in 10 years) and operating margin:
I'd like to get your thoughts on the company and see if there's anything significant that I'm missing from my assumptions. [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Moderna’s HIV Vaccine Has Officially Begun Human Trials Posted: 29 Jan 2022 06:40 AM PST Few people have been hit harder during the COVID-19 pandemic than those who are immunocompromised — including people whose immune systems have been ravaged by HIV/AIDS. But that dark chapter of medical history may soon be drawing to a close. That's the hope in Washington, D.C., at least, where scientists with the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative and Moderna have announced that human trials for the company's experimental HIV vaccine have officially begun. "We are tremendously excited to be advancing this new direction in HIV vaccine design with Moderna's mRNA platform," said IAVI president and CEO Mark Feinberg in the announcement. "The search for an HIV vaccine has been long and challenging, and having new tools in terms of immunogens and platforms could be the key to making rapid progress toward an urgently needed, effective HIV vaccine." Human candidates, recruited for clinical trials last August, received the study's first shots on Thursday at George Washington University's School of Medicine and Health Sciences. The vaccine builds on technology developed by Moderna during their COVID-19 vaccine production, with the goal of using mRNA to boost HIV immunogens and prevent the virus from disabling B cells, which are essential to fighting disease. Although medicines like PrEP and antiretroviral therapy (ART) have proved somewhat effective in slowing the spread of HIV and reducing its mortality, the virus is still a threat to global health nearly forty years after it was first identified. Scientists hope to conclude human trials next year in 2023, coinciding with HIV's grim 40th anniversary. "We believe advancing this HIV vaccine program in partnership with IAVI and Scripps Research is an important step in our mission to deliver on the potential for mRNA to improve human health," said Moderna president Stephen Hoge. Only time will tell whether this vaccine will succeed where others have failed — but we'll be praying, crossing our digits, and wishing on every star that by next year, LGBTQ+ communities around the globe will have a new reason to celebrate. https://www.them.us/story/hiv-aids-vaccine-human-trials-modern [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 30 Jan 2022 09:27 PM PST I have $6000 to spend which I won't need until a year later. I'm also a relatively new investor, so here's my thinking… Amazon closed at $2879.56 on Friday, and it's at a discounted price. In fact it hasn't dipped this low since 2020. It's a pretty volatile stock, but that also puts potential for high reward! Google on the other hand is commonly known to be a long- term investment. Which one to go with? [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Owning TSLA, APPL, MSFT. What are some must-have tech stocks? Posted: 30 Jan 2022 10:47 PM PST Alright, sorry, I know one of them doesn't belong, but hear me out. I started investing in the second half of 2021 because I really wanted to have some money in TSLA. I just like the company and wanted this to be my little hobby. At some point I realized that for a hobby it feels too much like gambling to have all of my portfolio rise and fall 15% on a daily basis and I started putting my eggs in other baskets. After some time I retained the satisfaction of having some money in TSLA, but managed to get rid of the frustration. Currently, my portfolio is TSLA 60%, MSFT 30%, APPL 10%. Now I'm looking at getting more APPL, then thinking about GOOG. I can invest about $600 every month. I would love to hear what tech stocks are absolute must-haves! [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| A warning about Robinhood Stock Posted: 29 Jan 2022 01:56 PM PST I've been scoping out growth stocks that have been demolished recently to try to find hidden gems, so I decided to look into Robinhood. As bad as their earnings report was recently, there's an even worse badness hiding in their numbers. Even though their revenue for the year was 1.8 billion. Their share-based compensation was almost 1.6 billion. Based on their current market cap, that's about a 14% dilution. Also they're projecting this upcoming year to have a share-based comp of between 0.93B and 1B. This is palantir level dilution with a shaky business model. If you're buying this right now, you should hope they get bought by a larger brokerage firm. Buyer beware. Edit: For those interested in the source, go to page 4 of their earnings release for their 2022 projections. "Additionally, we expect share-based compensation to decline 35-40% year-over-year. " That decline is coming from a share comp of 1.6B. [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Question about the way people shorted the housing crisis Posted: 30 Jan 2022 10:12 AM PST Why did the shorters of 2008 buy CDS instead of cheap long term puts on stocks exposed to the housing crisis? I am asking this because my understanding is that the collateral they had to post was very expensive and risky. Also the options would be very cheap at that time [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| How to Calualte annual dividend yield on a portfolio. Posted: 31 Jan 2022 12:48 AM PST Hi all, I am wondering if there is a way to calculate my dividend yield on a portfolio that grows each month. I have 8k invested in January by December I am expecting to have around 10.5k. Is there a way to get an annualized dividend yield if the pot is always increasing? Would it be best to figure it out monthly then add them together and divide by 12 for an average? [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| What're the risks of selling below bvps on high volatility stocks? Posted: 30 Jan 2022 07:49 PM PST $Wish has a bvps of 1.306 I got puts filled at .50 for .01 or 2% a month what does it take to make a company go that far below it's bvps? If they filed for chapter 7 bankruptcy a bvps of 1.3 would mean shareholders would get back 1.3$ per share right? [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Nuclear Fusion scientists hit a key milestone in pollution-free technology. Posted: 29 Jan 2022 05:07 PM PST A couple of days ago, scientists at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory were able to spark a fusion reaction that briefly sustained itself for the very first time. This is a big fucking deal. The goal of Nuclear Fusion technology is to generate power the same way that the sun generates heat, by smooshing hydrogen atoms together that they combine into helium; creating more energy than we would ever need. With the science out the way, let us talk money. There are currently no publicly traded nuclear fusion companies, and none have announced going public anytime soon. The largest funded of these companies is TAE technologies. Even though these companies don't have ticker symbols, these companies do need fuel; suppliers that do have ticker symbols. Nuclear Fusion requires lithium to fuel the reactors. The biggest lithium supplier is NYSE: LTHM Livent. That would be the best way for non-accredited investors to get exposure to the fusion market as of right now. With all that being said, I'm gonna be monitoring any and all upcoming IPO start-ups in these companies. Keep in mind, this is only a gut feeling I have. I can't be for certain this will be profitable, I'm only making an educated guess. What are your thoughts? [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Was Google or Apple or Tesla ever part of the Russell 2000? Posted: 30 Jan 2022 07:19 AM PST I am still new to the stock market. Maybe two years of actively trading. I was going over the Russell 2000 and reading about Macy's and all these other small cap companies. I'm thinking of investing in them now with this correction. I am wondering were any of the largest companies ever a part of the Russell? I'm assuming so because they had to because to get into the s&p you had to become large enough right? Anyways thank you in advance! [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| What are your thoughts about SalesForce (CRM) Posted: 29 Jan 2022 09:13 PM PST I recently read that SalesForce acquired Slack, one of their competitors. On top of that. I did a bit of reading about the industry they are in and what's happening around the globe in regards to that. I have a good feeling about long-term investment into it. I would just like to know some more thoughts about it [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| When does a growth stock become a value stock? Posted: 29 Jan 2022 09:17 PM PST Still a beginner investor here wanting to learn more, I've been parking my money in giant growth companies for years and don't plan on taking it out for many years. A good example of a company that lead to my question is Apple. It is no question they have been growing very rapidly for many years, however I thought they now have a consistent product line that has been generating consistent revenue, with a lot of cash. Is Apple still considered a growth company because of their continuously growing revenue, and an unopened future with apple health, cars, and possibly more? To wrap up my post, when does a growth company become a value company? [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Long term investing with ISA or without (UK) Posted: 30 Jan 2022 09:56 AM PST Hi guys, Currently looking to invest some money, dont need to use it for a long time so just wanna let it grow (hopefully) in an account. I know i want to invest in Index funds mostly with maybe a bit in some individual businesses, however im confused/undecided on weather i should just open an account with something like free trade and buy index funds like that or if i would benefit from a stocks and shares ISA with Vanguard ( im also aware i can buy these funds through other platforms). Im also confused on how easy it is to withdraw the money from an ISA when i do eventually want it. any help would be great, Matt [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| I would love to hear thoughts on cybersecurity stocks, mainly S(SentinelOne) and CRWD(Crowdstrike) Posted: 30 Jan 2022 12:27 AM PST Currently holding at -20% on both stocks, and wondering if these stocks will ever regain their peak prices. I would also love some analysis on prospects of these companies, as these were recommendations from a colleague of mine and I have no idea how strong a hold these companies have on on the market. [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 30 Jan 2022 09:00 AM PST Hey y'all, I'm 20yo and filed independently for the first time last year. The problem is I haven't done any of my taxes for any of my investments over the last couple years: I use Fidelity, Acorns and Robinhood. Over these two years, I have probably only netted $3,000 +/- $500. How should I go about paying the required taxes? If I file online, can I put in these past gains/losses too? Any and all advice is welcome. [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Why is Lending Tree’s stock price not correlated with the housing market? Posted: 30 Jan 2022 09:38 AM PST Why is lending tree's stock $TREE price similar to what it was back in 2017? I figured the stock price would correlate with the housing market, and be at an all time high. Something is not adding up. The price went up to around $400 a share and now it is around $110. What gives? Or, maybe the current price is already corrected before a crash happens? [link] [comments] |
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