Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - November 22, 2021 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - November 22, 2021
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. November 22, 2021
- Blue Chips Can Be Your Bangers
- GoDaddy discloses recent security breach that exposed 1.2 million accounts
- Any idea why CSPX.LSE returns is higher than the index SP500 it tracks?
- Looking for arguments and experts that lay out a plausible Volcker type scenario that actually sounds like it could work. https://twitter.com/thestalwart/status/1461667863132004358?s=21
- If all cash seeking return ends up in equities because there are no alternatives worth the risk, what happens to bonds if the fed raises interest rates?
- How to 3x the S&P CAGR with less risk | Leverage for the Long Run
- What's More Money Options Or Stock?
- The Kevin O’Leary investing method
- Why SP500 when there is NASDAQ
- The Difference Between 13-week Treasury Bill Rate And 13-week Treasure Yield Rate
- I Bond current value (Treasury Direct)
- When did you know you were stock investor or a stock trader?
- It’s Mostly a Demand Shock, Not a Supply Shock, and It’s Everywhere
- Question regarding investment firm
- Leverage 10X Warrants on US Public Equities
- Is this the potential Black Swan everyone has been worried about?
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - November 22, 2021 Posted: 22 Nov 2021 02:02 AM PST Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. November 22, 2021 Posted: 22 Nov 2021 02:01 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Blue Chips Can Be Your Bangers Posted: 22 Nov 2021 08:18 AM PST Old news for the seasoned investors, but there are always new folks here. Just wanted to use a real life example of how you can make steady gains without needing to chase new stocks. On a one year time horizon, I'm currently up around 25% in AAPL, and close to 400% in NET. However, my dollar gains in both stocks are less than 10% apart. While I may not have exploded on AAPL, DCA'ing in over a year has allowed to me to net the same dollar gains as a bet on growth stock. Just something to consider for newer investors. [link] [comments] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GoDaddy discloses recent security breach that exposed 1.2 million accounts Posted: 22 Nov 2021 08:23 AM PST According to the latest SEC filing, this is what they say about the breach:
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| Any idea why CSPX.LSE returns is higher than the index SP500 it tracks? Posted: 22 Nov 2021 07:14 AM PST As can be seen for your year between period 2016-2017, 2017-2018, ..., 2019-2020 the annual returns of CSPX is higher than the index SP500 it tracks. For example, the annual return of CSPX in 2016-2017 is 18.18%, whereas that of the benchmark ie SP500 is 17.88%. This is pretty strange since I thought it would be lower due to expense ratio. I was thinking it cannot be currency fluctuations since CSPX.LSE is traded in USD. any ideas? [link] [comments] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 22 Nov 2021 05:11 AM PST I've heard excellent arguments for the Fed wanting inflation and getting it(Luke Gromen, Ray Dalio), for the Fed continuing to print, but seeing inflation chill out(Cathie and her velocity of money, Jeff Booth and his deflationary tech argument). But I haven't seen anyone make an intelligent case (that doesn't end in collapse or worse printing than we started with) for a Volcker style tightening and recession that a lot of people seem to call for. I'd like to see an steel man argument for that that takes into account national, corporate, and personal debt. Anyone seen one? [link] [comments] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 22 Nov 2021 08:28 AM PST I wanted to validate that I'm not totally wrong in thinking: right now, nobody wants bonds. not thousandires, not millionaires, not billionaires with tons of cash to park who just want to earn a few bucks (hedge against inflation) and forget about it. the yields are too low and unattractive. real estate also has its own issues, crypto, etc. equities are currently the answer on where to park cash for the time being. with that said:
the 20 year bond is sitting around 2% if the federal reserve changes the base lending interest rate from 0-0.25% (which is what it is at now) to 0.25-0.50% (which is the most likely occurence we're going to see monetary policy wise) within the next 12-18 months, what does that do to the 20 year treasury bond for example? does it go up 0.25bps? [link] [comments] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| How to 3x the S&P CAGR with less risk | Leverage for the Long Run Posted: 21 Nov 2021 09:48 AM PST https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2741701 For those of your wondering what the hell to do now, I introduce you to a new unsung hero Michael Gayed. Michael has found a way to systemically outperform the S&P 500 by over 3x while taking on less risk and it's an extremely simple investment strategy. Everyone says that triple leveraged ETFs have volatility decay and are not meant for long-term holding. Well guess what, those people are idiots. Let's look at the data: If you invested in UPRO using this guy's simple strategy, backtested all the way back to 1928, you would have returned 27% CAGR while the S&P did 9% and by taking on half as much risk (0.6 Sharpe ratio for this strategy vs. 0.3 for buy & hold. The rules are simple, if the underlying index closes below the 200 day moving average, you sell. Once it crosses back above the 200 MA, then reenter. That is it. Investing $10k in 1928 with this strategy would have returned $28 TRILLION (with a T) while the S&P would have returned $39 million. The reason this works is because of the lack of volatility above the 200 MA, and higher volatility below the 200 MA. Enjoy the sweet taste of compounding returns my friends because this is a ticket to an early retirement. TLDR: Read the damn paper. [link] [comments] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What's More Money Options Or Stock? Posted: 22 Nov 2021 09:16 AM PST So I understand the concept of both; however, I was speaking with someone the other day and they told me that there is more money in options than stock due to the underlying risk and I wanted to know if I buy a singular options contract at $200 and let's say my breakeven is$250 and the stock goes up to 285; versus, buying 100 stocks at 200 and seeing it hit 285. Will the options bring back more money? [link] [comments] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Kevin O’Leary investing method Posted: 21 Nov 2021 08:11 PM PST What's everyone's thoughts on Kevin O'Leary's strategy? He only invests in stocks and ETFs that offer dividends (With exceptions like TSLA) He then uses the dividend payments and purchases more of said stocks or ETFs. Thus compounding the dividend payout to create more shares and earn more dividends sums. I am looking to do this at a smaller scale obviously and am wondering if anyone has ever tried this. I am 22 and am happy to invest over the next 25-30 years into a long term growth portfolio to have more financial freedom when I'm 50+. The short term gains are hardly noticeably but around year 18-20 the gains are life changing. A quick YouTube search of Kevin O'Leary's portfolio strategy returns great content. [link] [comments] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Why SP500 when there is NASDAQ Posted: 21 Nov 2021 05:36 AM PST Hello there, it has been 3-4 years since I'm investing in the market. I just DCA like most of you. I don't know much tbh. At first, I bought WORLD Tracker, then I realized most of the % comes from the US (I live in Europe btw), so I switched to S&P500 and now I realize most of the % comes from NASDAQ100. (Yeah I'm not a quick learner). Well, why wouldn't I want to put everything in NASDAQ100? I know the drawdown is higher but the profit is as well. And inflation is just starting imo... [link] [comments] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Difference Between 13-week Treasury Bill Rate And 13-week Treasure Yield Rate Posted: 21 Nov 2021 03:33 PM PST Treasury has 2 separate rates for 13-week notes: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2021: - Treasury Bill Rate - Treasure Yield Rate They are sometimes close to each other's values (i.e January 2021) or further apart from each other (November, 2021). What are the key differences between the two? My understanding is that the yield curve takes into account the inflation while the nominal rate does not. [link] [comments] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| I Bond current value (Treasury Direct) Posted: 21 Nov 2021 12:27 PM PST I bought a $10,000 I bond on treasurydirect.gov on June 1, 2021 with interest rate at that time of 3.54%. When I look today, the "Current Value" of that bond is $10,060.00. My best guess is that "current value" Am I correct? If not, how does the Treasury compute "current value"? [link] [comments] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| When did you know you were stock investor or a stock trader? Posted: 21 Nov 2021 06:32 AM PST I've been reading a bunch of random posts online about different companies I'm currently interested in, and I realize I'm happy that I'm an investor and I always will be. I don't understand how people can exist with a trader mindset. It's seems like you need to study alot of quasi science, be on social media constantly, do alot of cocaine, and it really just seems stressful. The neat thing about reddit is I can look and see when people post their "analysis" of a stock. Which for 99% of reddit, is just a trader saying voodoo witch craft nonsense about enter and exit points, resistance this and that, cutting losses, and special orders. Then you ask for their portfolio and they have none or its top secret or something. It's not illegal to share your portfolio you great traders. I'm an average Joe, and I'm not that smart. so I feel really good when I read posts from people who buy a stock like MU, three years ago, at 40-43 a share, and sell it saying they see no future in it. It's trading at like $83 now. I love it when I read people saying they bought Uber near ipo at 40 and sold at 32 and say it's doomed to fail. But Uber is still around, in fact it hit a height of $60 last spring and now it's $44. You haven't even given it a chance to grow or become something yet. Like the company is a verb, give it a few years. I think traders are like fake friends in high school. They're only around you if you're cool. Once you're not cool anymore they abandon you. But traders are onlu a small portion of money for a company a company makes stuff to sell to people and that's what really draws in revenue to grow. I see alot of people talk about the "opportunity cost" or "oppurtuniy lost, " something like that when you're not trading. Like if I buy something that isn't moving fast, or something is in the red, it's better to "cut my losses." But that's like... Buying high and selling low. That sounds like the exact opposite of what you're supposed to do. Honestly, I'd rather sink with my ship if you're telling me to always sell the moment my stock goes red. if I was so foolish as to pick a bad company, I'd rather just take the full loss, rather then death by a thousand cuts. But I pick companies that make more revenue every year, have increasing dividends, and are medium to large size growth companies. I'm boring. I just look at the best performing companies, read their 10k and just invest. My first two companies I bought were Apple and Starbucks, I then bought Nvidia and Realty Income. I bought Pennymac and Weyerhaeuser afterward. I just sorta sit on them. I just hold them and buy more. If I somehow become broke instantly from these decisions then damn. I'm investing in known companies with easy business models. I like safety and simplicity. I don't believe I'm gonna become a multi millionaire with several cars and boats. I just want to make enough money to be the first millionaire in my family, and have my children live of my dividends so they don't have to work so hard. It just seems like people don't have patience on the internet. And when you take the time to read people who argue about a particular stock, and then for those same people to be proven wrong by time. It feels good. [link] [comments] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| It’s Mostly a Demand Shock, Not a Supply Shock, and It’s Everywhere Posted: 21 Nov 2021 10:33 AM PST https://www.bridgewater.com/its-mostly-a-demand-shock-not-a-supply-shock-and-its-everywhere Thoughts ? TL;DR This is not, by and large, a pandemic-related supply problem: as we'll show, supply of almost everything is at all-time highs. Rather, this is mostly an Monetary Policy 3-driven upward demand shock. The Monetary Policy 3 response we saw in response to the pandemic more than made up for the incomes lost to widespread shutdowns without making up for the supply that those incomes had been producing. There are not enough raw materials, energy, productive capacity, inventories, housing, or workers. [link] [comments] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Question regarding investment firm Posted: 21 Nov 2021 11:29 PM PST Hi good evening (atleast for me aha) I have a question I'm hoping I can have answered or atleast steered in the right direction, or an opinion would be nice too So I want to open an investment firm like a hedge fund but instead of having the ultra wealthy invest, I'd want to mainly focus on my community, where a neighbor with 5k can come in and invest and I can keep him updated on his quarterly returns and we can have an agreement on when he can take his money out. I have control of the portfolio and invest however I'd think is best (of course with help when needed), basically like a hedge fund but I saw that only those with 1 million in assets or 200k in income can invest in hedge funds, and mutual funds in general are big enough to only charge 1-2% a year and they only have a 30% allowable leverage, I'm wondering if there's a middle ground where I can receive investments from the average person, use their money and leverage it like a hedge fund, and trade stocks more aggressively to aim for a higher return Thanks for hearing me out! [link] [comments] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Leverage 10X Warrants on US Public Equities Posted: 21 Nov 2021 06:57 PM PST Folks, Need some advice, I am looking at a 10x leverage certificate for Nvidia available in France (Euronext Paris) exchange. I want to understand:
https://live.euronext.com/en/product/structured-products/DE000SD3H5M4-XMLI/market-information I dont want to buy Options / LEAPs / Margin to get the same amount of leverage. I understand the risks and I am willing and take to that. Edit: its 5x Leverage, not 10 as mentiomed in heading [link] [comments] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Is this the potential Black Swan everyone has been worried about? Posted: 21 Nov 2021 07:46 PM PST Russia has more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine's borders and is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine's defense intelligence agency told Military Times. Such an attack would likely involve airstrikes, artillery and armor attacks followed by airborne assaults in the east, amphibious assaults in Odessa and Mariupul and a smaller incursion through neighboring Belarus, Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told Military Times Saturday morning in an exclusive interview. "They want to make the situation inside the country more and more dangerous and hard and make a situation where we have to change the government," said Budanov. "If they can't do that, than military troops will do their job." Budanov said U.S. and Ukraine intelligence assessments about the timing of a Russian attack are very similar. "Our evaluations are almost the same as our American colleagues," he said. [link] [comments] |
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