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    Friday, September 10, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Sep 10, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Sep 10, 2021


    r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Sep 10, 2021

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 02:30 AM PDT

    This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on fundamentals, but if fundamentals aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against fundamentals here and not in the current post.

    Some helpful day to day links, including news:


    Most fundamentals are updated every 3 months due to the fact that corporations release earnings reports every quarter, so traders are always speculating at what those earnings will say, and investors may change the size of their holdings based on those reports. Expect a lot of volatility around earnings, but it usually doesn't matter if you're holding long term, but keep in mind the importance of earnings reports because a trend of declining earnings or a decline in some other fundamental will drive the stock down over the long term as well.

    See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

    Market Cap - Shares Outstanding - Volume - Dividend - EPS - P/E Ratio - EPS Q/Q - PEG - Sales Q/Q - Return on Assets (ROA) - Return on Equity (ROE) - BETA - SMA - quarterly earnings

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EBITDA," then google "investopedia EBITDA" and click the Investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Useful links:

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    The $1 trillion that has flowed to global stocks in 2021 is bigger than the last 20 years combined. Wow…

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 04:54 AM PDT

    Money has gushed toward stocks this year, as global central banks have kept monetary policy accommodative to fight the coronavirus pandemic.

    Bank of America has put those flows into perspective with the following chart that shows annualized inflows to global stocks in 2021, topping $1 trillion. That's bigger than the cumulative inflow of the last 20 years — $800 billion between 2001 and 2020, noted Michael Hartnett, global investment strategist and his team.

    Yet there were signs some investors could be steering a bit more money out of stocks, as Bank of America's Flow Show reported that $15.2 billion was allocated to cash in the latest week, the biggest influx in five weeks. The week saw $12.7 billion allocated to equities, $12.6 billion to bonds, but $200 million out of gold , which is traditionally viewed as a haven for investors worried about an economic slowdown.

    The S&P 500  has gained nearly 20% so far this year, which is ahead of a 16% return in 2020, though below a 28% return in 2019. On a continous basis, gold has dropped 5% this year, versus a 24% rise in 2020.

    https://on.mktw.net/3A4uyXo

    submitted by /u/sparttann
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    Democrats Propose 2% Tax On Stock Buybacks To Offset Their $3.5 Trillion Budget Plan

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 12:28 PM PDT

    The proposal, called the Stock Buyback Accountability Act, would levy a 2% excise tax on the amount corporations spend to buy back their own stock—a common practice that returns funds to shareholders without generally requiring taxes.

    In recent decades, cash-rich companies have used buybacks to reward stockholders and share-incented employees. Apple (ticker: APPL) spent over $400 billion on buybacks in the last 10 years, while Microsoft (MSFT) spent nearly $130 billion. Since 2017, annual spending on buybacks by companies in the S&P 500 index totaled $650 billion each year, on average, according to an Aug. 6 report by J.P. Morgan quant analyst Dubravko Lakos-Bujas. Some 20% to 30% of those buybacks were funded with debt—the rest with corporate cash.

    Brown and Wyden said the 2% excise tax would make corporations think twice about allocating capital to buybacks, instead of hiring or capital investment. Spending by the S&P 500 companies on buybacks rose 11% from this year's March to June quarters, said J.P. Morgan's Lakos-Bujas. Capital expenditures rose 6%. Spending on dividends slipped 3%.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/09/10/a-2-tax-on-stock-buybacks-is-being-proposed-by-democratic-senators-to-offset-their-35-trillion-budget-plan/?sh=289dd3c07270

    submitted by /u/BurnerBurnerBurns20
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    Apple’s App Store Dealt Blow by Judge in Epic Antitrust Case

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 08:50 AM PDT

    DoorDash, Grubhub and Uber sue NYC over bill that limits how much they can charge restaurants

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 08:37 AM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/10/doordash-grubhub-and-uber-sue-nyc-over-delivery-fee-limits.html

    DoorDash, Grubhub and Uber Eats are suing the city of New York over a bill that would make emergency delivery fee caps permanent.

    The lawsuit follows a similar legal action from DoorDash and Grubhub against San Francisco.

    The companies claim the measure will ultimately harm restaurants.

    I think nyc is doing the right decision. These delivery apps are charging a very high fee already so there should be a limit. For investors who invests into these companies, please realize they have to burn a lot of money before they maybe finally able to make a profit.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    Fed presidents Kaplan, Rosengren to sell individual stock holdings to address ethics concerns

    Posted: 09 Sep 2021 03:13 PM PDT

    Reported today, I think it's a strange coincidence that they all of a sudden care about ethics, especially with the talk of tapering.

    Personally extremely cautious about this. Is the market finally at the top?

    Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/09/feds-rosengren-to-sell-individual-stock-portfolio-to-address-ethics-concerns.html

    submitted by /u/TheNathanNS
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    What should a bearish long-term investor do?

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 05:25 AM PDT

    I'm a beginner investor that's a bit bearish on the current market. Also, the prospect of losing 100%+ scares me, so I'd rather not try to short anything, but I would like to make money, or at least not lose a ton of money, during the impending downturn. What should I do?

    submitted by /u/Existing_Alfalfa9336
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    Was Redditt a place to talk stocks and economics before the 2008 financial crisis? Or has it gained momentum more recently, last 5 years?

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 07:11 AM PDT

    So Reddit started in 2005, were there any chatter back then of the now known financial crisis. Were some talking about over valued stocks. Or was redditt still too new to attract much stock or economic discussions?

    submitted by /u/Paul_Ostert
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    Here is a Market Recap for today Friday, Sept 10, 2021. Have a great weekend everyone!!

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 02:19 PM PDT

    PsychoMarket Recap - Friday, September 10, 2021

    Stocks extended their streak of underperformance, with the three major indexes falling once again for the fifth consecutive day of losses, one of the worst weeks for equities all year. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed the day 0.78% down, closing out the week 1.57% down. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) also closed the day 0.78% down, closing the week out 1.3%. The Dow Jones (DIA), which primarily weights financial, industrial, and energy stocks, closed the day 0.75%, closing the week 1.91% lower. The Russell 2000 (IWM), which tracks the performance of small-caps, continued its roughly year-long streak of underperformance, falling 0.97% and closing the week 2.53% lower. All year, IWM has been trading between a range of $210 and $235, unable to break out, compared to the more than 15% year-to-date gain by the SPY. Market participants remain concerned with the surge in the coronavirus Delta variant and the potential negative impact it could cause the economy.

    First off, in geopolitical news, President Biden spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping for the first time in months. Afterward, Bloomberg reported that the Biden administration was considering investigating Chinese subsidies and their effect on the US economy. Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said "The Sino-America relationship is in disrepair and today's call does not seem to change this. The US appears to list actions it wants China to take, while China's demands seem minimalist, quit demonizing it and respect its red lines. Yet its red lines strike at the very heart of international order, such as its claims on most of the South China Sea and its aggressive provocative actions in the region." This also comes amid extremely intense regulatory pressures by the CCP on Chinese tech stocks, many of which have an American listing.

    In other news, new economic data showed that prices paid by producers for materials once again rose last month, once again highlighting the strain that stills exists as supply-side pressures and labor market shortages once again push inflationary readings higher. This report shows that, despite the pandemic surging once again, demand by consumers remains red-hot and continues to outstrip manufacturing capacity, causing shortages, which, as basic economics shows, pushes prices higher. The producer price index for final demand rose 0.7% last month after two straight monthly increases of 1.0%, the Labor Department said. The gain was led by a 0.7% advance in services following a 1.1% jump in July. A 1.5% increase in trade services, which measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers, accounted for two-thirds of the broad rise in services. Goods prices jumped 1.0% after climbing 0.6% in July, with food rebounding 2.9%. In the 12 months through August, the PPI accelerated 8.3%, the biggest year-on-year advance since November 2010, though one has to take into account this number is inflated due to easy comparisons to last year, given the absolute collapse of prices during the height of the pandemic before the vaccine existed. Economists had forecast a rise of 0.6% on a monthly basis and 8.2% on a yearly basis, basically in line with reality.

    Mike Loewengart, Managing Director at E-Trade Financial, said of the PPI, "Anyone who has bought pretty much everything recently knows that supply chain issues are widespread and inflation is real, so this won't be too much of a surprise for the market. Keep in mind we're still in the transitory period where the Fed is not inclined to budge of easy money policies."

    Now, this is absolutely massive news and will have huge consequences in the market moving forward, especially for companies who derive a large percentage of their revenue through the Apple Store. Today, a judge in California sided with Epic Games and issued Apple a permanent injunction against their App Store policies. This move opens the door for developers to offer customers third-party payment options that do not force developers to pay Apple's 15-30% commission. Stocks like Roblox (RBLX), Bumble (BMBL), Zynga (ZNGA), and Spotify (SPOT) sharply gapped up after the announcement. I cannot stress how big this is, in 2020 Apple made $73 billion in revenue from the commission on App purchases.

    Unfortunately, a summer that began with plunging coronavirus cases nationwide and real hope that the worst of the pandemic was behind us as the effective vaccination drive began is instead drawing to a close with the US firmly in throes of the pandemic once again, due to the highly contagious Delta variant.

    This weekend, hospitalizations were roughly 300% higher than Labor Day weekend in 2020, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The surge in patients comes as the highly contagious Delta variant continues to spread across the US, and coincided with a weekend that saw a spike in travel. According to the Transportation Security Administration, more than 3.5 million people traveled across the country on Friday and Saturday for the Labor Day holiday, despite the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's recommendation for unvaccinated people to refrain from traveling.

    Highlights

    • Peloton (PTON) shares gapped up after the company announced it was launching an apparel brand. It's probably gonna be the same sort of clothes that are sold in Lululemon (LULU).
    • The crackdown in China continues… This time, regulators of video game companies execs to focus less on profits and implement controls to prevent video game addiction. Companies were "urged to break from the solitary focus of pursuing profit or attracting players and fans.
    • Russian Cybersecurity firm Yandex (YNDX) said it successfully repelled the biggest distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack in history. This comes just after American company Cloudflare (NET) repelled the previously largest DDoS attack on Aug 19. The Yandex attack was 22 million requests per second, while Cloudflare's was 17.2 million requests per second. Cybersecurity is becoming ever more important as attacks become more complex and powerful.
    • The Italian Data Authority asks Facebook (FB) to provide clarifications on the use and function of the smart glasses to gauge whether the product is compliant with privacy laws. Like I said yesterday, I think the glasses are a bad product, don't see any use for them apart from very niche uses, like live-streaming. Not even to mention FB's absolutely appalling record when it comes to data privacy (remember Cambridge Analytica?)
    • Sales of cars in China fell for the fourth straight month amid the global shortage in semiconductors that have forced automakers across the globe to slash production.
    • Elon Musk sent an email to Tesla employees asking them to "go super hardcore" to make up for production challenges to "ensure a decent Q3 delivery number." The CEO also said, "This is the biggest wave in Tesla history, but we got to get it done." I hope they get it done, still waiting on my Model 3 :(
    • **Please note that current stock price was written during the session and may not reflect closing prices*\*
    • Accenture (ACN) with two target raises. Stock currently around $341
      • Morgan Stanley from $330 to $380 at Overweight
      • Bank of America from $324 to $379 at Buy
    • Shares of Affirm (AFRM) gapped up 34% after the company absolutely demolished earnings and raises guidance. Also received a host of target upgrades, with average price target being $140 at Buy.
    • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) target raised by Cowen from $120 to $125 at Outperform. Stock currently around $104
    • Danaher (DHR) target raised by Bank of America from $340 to $360 at Buy. Stock currently around $330
    • Lululemon (LULU) target raised by Argus from $416 to $500 at Buy. Stock currently around $425
    • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) with two target raises. Stock currently around $470
      • Royal Bank of Canada from $475 to $525 at Outperform
      • BMO Capital Markets from $480 to $525 at Outperform
    • QuantaServices (PWR) target raised by Cowen from $110 to $130 at Outperform. Stock currently around $115
    • Zscaler (ZS) with a host of target raises after beating earnings. Average price target $320 at Buy. Stock currently around $270.

    "To Bear Trials with a Calm Mind Robs Misfortune of its Strength & Burden" - Seneca

    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
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    Will the Bull market continue if Biden's "Build Back Better Plan" gets signed into law?

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 06:00 AM PDT

    Every week I see headlines of how the stock market is overvalued and we're heading for a crash. But if Biden's plan passes, we're talking about trillions of dollars of federal spending here and supposedly millions of jobs created. Wouldn't that continue the market rally? Or would it only affect certain sectors? (industrials, materials, utilities)

    submitted by /u/MisunderstoodHaploid
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    Is it okay to buy $MSFT (Microsoft) now when it's below $300?

    Posted: 09 Sep 2021 08:20 PM PDT

    Microsoft is definitely a company that will most likely continue to do well and generate good profits especially from Office, XBox, Azure, Windows & etc.

    I am looking to buy some shares of good companies and hold for the long term (>5 years) and have been looking closely at MSFT.

    Now that it had a small dip from ATH, is it okay to buy in now while it's below $300 and wait for a bigger pullback? Most people here entered MSFT years ago and before it had a nice run-up since June while I am thinking about buying it now.

    submitted by /u/guyastronomer
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    Worth averaging down on Abbvie, or do they have further to go?

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 10:52 AM PDT

    Just looking for some opinions, as I think about averaging down. My average right now is relatively high, at 114. Maybe overly bullish, but I think they could get close to 200 over the next five years. And if not, they do pay a good dividend.

    Here's the thing I'm a little embarrassed to say, given some of the posts I see: The two shares I have right now, are a little over 7% of my portfolio. Adding even a couple more would take them into double digits (currently only $MRNA, $AAPL and $O are there) and be kind of a significant shift for me. I can afford a drop back down to where they were this time last year, because I'm not relying on what I have for anything but obviously I'd hate to buy now and watch them continue to trickle down for the next few months.

    submitted by /u/MeInMass
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    California Water Service Group

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 12:38 PM PDT

    I noticed that San-Francisco recently changed their zoning to allow 4 houses on one lot, which was a huge milestone for dealing with NIMBY's controlling zoning. Given 80% is zoned for single family houses.

    As housing becomes more expensive, with Covid spending and interest rates, I could see an even larger push for more density to combat housing prices. Many companies are already fleeing to places like Texas to avoid California's high real estate prices. Homeless are already a large issue, rents are still going up above wages, companies like Blackrock are buying up real estate as 30 year treasuries pay 2%.

    One of the biggest issue with increasing density in these large cities will be utilities, such as water and electricity. This is where I think something like California Water Service group could be a great stock to hold, as much of the existing infrastructure will have to be redone to allow dense housing to be build.

    Anyways, thoughts? Any better way to profit off the densification of cities from single family house?

    submitted by /u/meowman3000
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    What’s wrong with leveraged funds?

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 11:29 AM PDT

    I understand they're risky, but if you're in for a long term investment (20+ years), why would you not throw 1k in here and see where you end up? The charts speak for themselves. I get the sharper crash upon a bear market or correction, but if it's tracking the S&P 500 or NASDAQ it's more than likely to rebound within that timeframe. Why is it so frowned upon to invest in leveraged funds such as TQQQ, UPRO, or SOXL?

    submitted by /u/roberthughes08
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    Options question for ATM exp

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 01:33 PM PDT

    I sold some puts for a stock that expired ATM today. Am relatively new to options, but not able to find much useful information here. I have been mostly selling covered calls and flipping options for past 6 months or so, and have been doing very good there with volatile stocks, just recently started selling covered puts. In this case selling puts with a $21 strike, and they ended today at $21.00. Premium was $165, and the rest was cash for each contract. Do they expire worthless, and lose all my $$, or does the premium put up return to me plus the price of contract? Sorry for noobish question, but I learn best by doing things.

    submitted by /u/freelovew1
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    Can Someone explain why $SYK price movement seems so strange?

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 01:30 PM PDT

    Hi all, Stryker is a medical device company with a good record of growth. During the day it seems to move at a "normal" pace but as soon as it hits after hours it goes wildly volitile. For instance, it ended down $3.06 today but the latest after hours figure shows +$19.24. It also doesnt seem to update regularly after hours. I have seen it fluctuate like this a lot pre and post trading hours so I'm curious if anyone knows why it's like this. Disclosure: $SYK March '22 $290 Call

    submitted by /u/mewhead3
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    10 safest companies to invest in if I'm not allowed to touch my account for two years?

    Posted: 09 Sep 2021 03:08 PM PDT

    Hey folks, I'm fairly new to investing and I have a unique situation for you.

    I'm leaving for a mission trip in a couple weeks and I'm going to invest a good portion of my savings in order to generate a little income while I'm gone. Just take my word for it, I won't have access to my investing apps while I'm away. I'm thinking about throwing in $300 between 10 different companies for a total of $3,000.

    Which do you think would be best for longevity? Is the market projected to suffer in the next couple years? Hoping to create a discussion about the general state of the market.

    Thanks:)

    submitted by /u/LiteUpSketchers
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    Invest my rollover IRA amount into ETFs now or wait

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 12:08 PM PDT

    Hello everyone,

    I want to invest $6000 from my rollover IRA account. I want to divide that amount among different ETS. But I keep hearing that there will be market correction soon. Should I wait to make the investment or just invest in ETFs right now. I am concerned about when to invest because I want to invest a portion of the money into leveraged ETFs like TQQQ.

    Aslo, What are your favourite ETFs and why ?

    Thanks in advance

    submitted by /u/Niknightwing
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    Do you ever feel like your LMT order moves the market? ( algos targeting us)

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 09:06 AM PDT

    I've been day trading low float, high relative volume stocks for a little over a year now. Basically, stocks that have a lot of eyes on them and the potential to make big moves.

    I often create bracket orders to buy when the price gets to my predetermined level.

    Sometimes I notice:

    • the second I transmit my order the price jumps immediately.
    • If a stock price is going down and I lower my bracket Sell order closer to the current price it causes the price to drop drastically in that exact second.

    I believe the Algos are seeing when a new buyer or seller enters in a new order and act in a way that makes you chase the stock for entry or exit.

    How can I overcome this issue?

    I see a lot of traders who trade like me (most notably ross from YT) don't use bracket orders at all and they just use the hotkeys to enter and exit and watch the tape for the price they looking for before hitting the hotkey. Is that the best way to trade these types of stocks so that the algos cant formulate a strategy in a split second to make me lose?

    submitted by /u/murkr
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    Margin impact with a position of 100% max loss

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 05:45 AM PDT

    So i have this position :-

    Long vxx 17 sept 23 calls Short vxx 17 sept 30 calls

    I'm so confused as to why such a position would require margin, given the max loss is no more than 100%. Any explanations? Thanks!.

    submitted by /u/sheraawwrr
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    Potentially promising company trading near all-time-low - anyone else have eyes on DOMA?

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 02:27 PM PDT

    Seems like a smart investment (fintech company aiming to overhaul the underwriting/title insurance/title transfer process using artificial intelligence-based patented technology - already has Chase and Wells Fargo as clients) and is trading near its all-time-low right now but also seems strange that no one is talking about it, literally anywhere. I've been keeping an eye on it since they went public at the end of July, and the stock was trading at a relatively low volume (~average of 850,000 shares/day) until this week, when it hit an all-time high of >4M shares yesterday, but closed today at $7.05/share, close to the all-time low, which seems like a good price point to get in.

    I love the potential promise of the company (which feels highly speculative because it's still very early) but have been feeling conflicted about the fact that investors redeemed and dumped their shares right away when they went public in July - https://www.housingwire.com/articles/doma-goes-public-but-investors-cash-out-early/ - and otherwise can't find much about the company anywhere.. I've also been trying to interpret the short interest information that's publicly available/free and unsure of how relevant this is - seems like a high borrow rate (78%, down from 88% earlier this week) and ~moderately high short volume ratio (45.16 for 9/9, but as high as 81.95 last week) - https://fintel.io/ss/us/doma.

    Anyone else out there have an opinion or any insights on this one?

    submitted by /u/TaqoBelle
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    Capital IQ's latest updates suggest that $VSCO has 164% short interest

    Posted: 09 Sep 2021 10:53 PM PDT

    https://imgur.com/a/ZuFBytD

    Capital IQ states that the free float of $VSCO is 2.5M https://imgur.com/a/jFYv1r7

    and Finra Markets reports Short Interest at 4.18M https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=126:0P0001MYB4

    For those of you getting your short interest information from Fintel, Fintel sources their data from Capital IQ and says they update twice a month, which happens to be tmr for the next update. Im willing to bet Fintel will report this high SI tmr night.

    Also, on yahoo finance, the Shares short is being reported as 4.18 and the Free float is being reported as 2.45 as well.

    submitted by /u/ExistingCalendar5
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