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    Tuesday, May 4, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Technicals Tuesday - May 04, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Technicals Tuesday - May 04, 2021


    r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Technicals Tuesday - May 04, 2021

    Posted: 04 May 2021 02:30 AM PDT

    This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on technical analysis (TA), but if TA is not your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against TA here and not in the current post.

    Some helpful day to day links, including news:


    Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions.

    The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as "priced in"): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.

    TA can be useful on any timeframe, both short and long term.

    Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks

    If you have questions, please see the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

    Indicator - Trade Signals - Lagging Indicator - Leading Indicator - Oversold - Overbought - Divergence - Whipsaw - Resistance - Support - Breakout/Breakdown - Alerts - Trend line - Market Participants - Moving average - RSI - VWAP - MACD - ATR - Bollinger Bands - Ichimoku clouds - Methods - Trend Following - Fading - Channels - Patterns - Pivots

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Corsair Gaming (CRSR) reports record first quarter 2021, crushes sales and earnings estimates

    Posted: 04 May 2021 04:49 AM PDT

    Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/corsair-gaming-reports-record-first-110000957.html

    First Quarter 2021 Highlights

    • Net revenue was $529.4 million, an increase of 71.6% year-over-year. Gamer and creator peripherals segment net revenue was $175.9 million, an increase of 131.9% year-over-year. Gaming components and systems segment net revenue was $353.5 million, an increase of 51.9% year-over-year.
    • Gross profit was $160.3 million, an increase of 103.9% year-over-year, with gross margin of 30.3%, an improvement of 480 basis points year-over-year. Gamer and creator peripherals segment gross profit was $68.9 million, an increase of 211.1% year-over-year. Gaming components and systems segment gross profit was $91.5 million, an increase of 61.9% year-over-year.
    • Operating income was $67.3 million, an increase of 404.5% year-over-year.
    • Adjusted operating income was $80.4 million, an increase of 221.4% year-over-year.
    • Net income was $46.7 million, or $0.47 per diluted share, compared to net income of $1.2 million in the same period last year, or $0.01 per diluted share.
    • Adjusted net income was $58.2 million, or $0.58 per diluted share, an increase of 420.4% year-over-year compared to adjusted net income of $11.2 million in the same period last year, or $0.13 per diluted share.
    • Adjusted EBITDA was $80.4 million, an increase of 196.6% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.2%, an improvement of 640 basis points year-over-year.
    • As of March 31, 2021, we had cash and restricted cash of $125.6 million, $48.1 million capacity under our revolving credit facility and total long-term debt of $294.3 million.
    • Cash flows from operations was $27.8 million, which increased from $2.0 million in the same period last year.

    The Company is updating guidance for the full-year 2021:

    • Raising net revenue to be in the range of $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion from $1.8 billion to $1.95 billion.

    • Raising adjusted operating income to be in the range of $235 million to $255 million from $205 million to $220 million.

    • Raising adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $245 million to $265 million from $215 million to $230 million.

    submitted by /u/HappyBengal
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    Why is the market down so much today?

    Posted: 04 May 2021 08:27 AM PDT

    Holy shit. The nsadaq is down a whole 2.5% right now. SP500 is almost 1.5 and the Dow is down a little under 1%. Whats going on? I know the market is overvalued right now, but I didn't think it would drop this fast or this soon. Is there another reason so many people sold today?

    submitted by /u/ilikelucy1
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    General Electric shareholders reject CEO pay

    Posted: 04 May 2021 10:03 AM PDT

    Sane vote imo. "A majority of shareholders at the General Electric Co annual general meeting rejected the pay packages for named executive officers, including CEO Larry Culp, whose compensation for 2020 tallied $73.2 million." How much money do these CEOs really need?

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/general-electric-shareholders-reject-ceo-151741458.html

    submitted by /u/badgebruce
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    Every time the FED talks...

    Posted: 04 May 2021 09:02 AM PDT

    The market commits suicide. This will happen every first week of every new month until the market corrects itself to pre pandemic valuations. By Oct. the market will look like it crashed as compared to the start of this new year.

    Fear not the color red. I'm prepared to look at -99% unrealized losses because the market isn't going anywhere. Buy dips, average down and hold.

    submitted by /u/Defiant_Statement_81
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    Is The GEO Group Inc (GEO) Stock a Smart Investment?

    Posted: 04 May 2021 01:17 PM PDT

    Over the past year the S&P 500 is higher by 48.80% while GEO is lower by -53.25%. GEO earned $0.94 a per share in the over the last 12 months, giving it a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.17.
    However, the GEO Group Inc (GEO) stock is lower by -53.25% over the last 12 months, and the average rating from Wall Street analysts is a Strong Buy. InvestorsObserver's proprietary ranking system, gives GEO stock a score of 30 out of a possible 100.

    That rank is chiefly influenced by a long-term technical score of 0. GEO's rank also includes a short-term technical score of 1. The fundamental score for GEO is 89. In addition to the average rating from Wall Street analysts, GEO stock has a mean target price of 15. This means analysts expect the stock to rise 157.29% over the next 12 months.

    submitted by /u/bentebenteuno2021
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    Why should we even bother investing in growth/tech at this moment in time?

    Posted: 04 May 2021 06:24 AM PDT

    Let's assume the fed is right and we don't raise interest rates until ~2023, it's my understanding that raising rates is going to send growth/tech stocks down because money isn't as cheap as it used to be. Under that assumption, shouldn't that mean it would be smarter to sit these next few years out until they end up raising rates and then open long positions? I recently purchased 10 LEAPs on various growth/tech companies and plan to exercise them in the future. Would it have been smarter to just wait for the rate hikes later on or how much of that is already being priced in the market today? I plan to be these positions 5-10+ years so I'm just curious.

    submitted by /u/Psalm20_7-9
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    Does anyone else feel "played" when the market moves so quickly and then trades sideways for a long time after?

    Posted: 04 May 2021 12:36 PM PDT

    I realize it is completely legal and there is nothing anyone can do about it but you can "feel/see" when the big players are moving money around. They drive the market down really quickly and then sit until all the "small players" throw their money in. The 2 to 3 percent moves over 20 minutes followed by .1 percent moves every 20 minutes following. I don't think it's really all these "paper hands" selling as much as big money pushing the market around so they can make money. When things trade sideways they don't make money.

    If you could move the market you would want to push prices down (short sell) along with some small "bad news" event to spark fear. Wait for the buyers to scoop up shares until things recover 25 percent and then drive the price back down again.

    At the end of the day a lot of people are on edge so there is more money to be made pushing the market lower then there is pushing it higher. At least in the next couple of week.

    I just recognize how insignificant retail investors are to the market yet how important they are to hedge funds and the like.

    submitted by /u/GMEgotmehere
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    Is Wall Street a bit dated with stuff?

    Posted: 04 May 2021 12:08 PM PDT

    "Consumer 'staples'" apparently still include cigarettes (which was a staple in the 1920's through 1960's), and "tech" stocks are apparently still "growth" companies?

    Has Wall Street forgotten what year it is?

    This, and some other stuff, seems antiquated/outdated and seems to lack much logic.

    submitted by /u/peachezandsteam
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    Here is a Market Recap for today Tuesday, May 4, 2021

    Posted: 04 May 2021 01:10 PM PDT

    PsychoMarket Recap - Tuesday, May 4, 2021

    Stocks fell on Thursday following a mixed session yesterday, as the selloff in technology stocks accelerated following remarks from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Market participants wait for the next set of corporate earnings reports and economic data, particularly the April Jobs report due to be released May 7.

    Stocks fell after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggested she thought interest rates in the US might need to rise in the near term in order to prevent an economic overheating as recovery continues. Rising rates would weigh on the valuations of growth companies and could slow down the recent rally to fresh highs. Janet Yellen said, "It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn't overheat, even though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy. It could cause some very modest increases in interest rates to get that reallocation, but these are investments our economy needs to be competitive and to be productive. I think our economy will grow faster because of them." This somewhat contradicts recent commentary from members of the Federal Reserve, will have to see how this story unfolds.

    Earnings season continues to exceed even the most optimistic expectations, with more than 85% of the companies that have reported exceeding expectations by an average of 22.1%, according to data from FactSet. These strong earnings beat, however, many companies did not see their stocks pop up. Analysts largely chalk this up to the already elevated expectation Wall Street had coming into this earnings season. Hilary Kramer (no relation) said, "The numbers were good but Wall Street's response was neutral at best. When the best earnings growth since 2010 spawns a yawn it's pretty clear that perfection is priced in. While there's no seasonal sell signal flashing, there's no immediate reason to buy either. This is a great opportunity to review your positions, make any adjustments, and then retreat to the sidelines for the next few months."

    The Labor Department will release its April jobs report on Friday, which is expected to show a staggering nearly 1 million payrolls came back last month, accelerating March's gain. As a reminder, in March, the Department of Labor reported nonfarm payrolls increased by 916,000 for the month while the unemployment rate fell to 6% (unemployment rate was 14.6% in April 2020). Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 675,000 and an unemployment rate of 6%.

    Highlights

    • Mega-caps were down sharply today, dragging the broader market down.
    • Big bank stocks outperformed the broader market.
    • Factory orders rose 1.1% in March over February after a 0.5% drop the month prior, according to the Department of Commerce. This was still slightly short of 1.3% estimates.
    • The trade deficit rose to $74.4 billion in March, after coming in at a deficit of $70.5 billion in February, the Department of Commerce said.
    • Shares of SmileDirectClub (SDC) sold off sharply after the company said it was affected by a cybersecurity incident on April 14 that will affect this quarter's revenue. The company reports on May 10
    • Twitter (TWTR) said Tuesday it had bought news technology company Scroll, which it will use as part of an upcoming subscription offering. The company allows users to subscribe to news publishers and read articles without ads.
    • Tesla (TSLA) is facing scrutiny in China over customer service complaints and safety. The company said it was boosting its engagement with regulators and the government in order to assure compliance.
    • **Please note that current stock price was written premarket and does not reflect intraday movement*\*
    • AMD with two target raises. Stock currently around $78.50
      • Mizuho from $105 to $107 at Buy
      • Raymond James from $100 to $110 at Outperform
    • Ameriprise Financial (AMP) target raised by Royal Bank of Canada from $270 to $295 at Outperform. Stock currently around $258
    • Boyd Gaming (BYD) target raised by Morgan Stanley (MS) from $66 to $78 at Overweight. Stock currently around $67
    • Comcast (CMCSA) target raised by Deutsche Bank from $60 to $65 at Buy. Stock currently around $56.50
    • Equifax (EFX) target raised by Barclays from $210 to $270 at Overweight. Stock currently around $234
    • EverQuote (EVER) target raised by Oppenheimer from $55 to $70 at Outperform. Stock currently around $34
    • F5 Networks (FFIV) target raised by Needham & Co from $245 to $255 at Buy. Stock currently around $184
    • Floor & Decor (FND) target raised by Wells Fargo from $120 to $130 at Overweight. Stock currently around $112.5
    • Alphabet (GOOG, $GOOGL) with a host of target raises. Consensus price target $2800 at Buy. Stock currently around $2343
    • Hasbro (HAS) with two target raises. Stock currently around $99
      • Jefferies Financial from $113 to $115 at Buy
      • DA Davidson from $115 to $120 at Buy
    • McDonald's (MCD) target raised by Telsey Advisory Group from $250 to $260 at Outperform
    • Microsoft (MSFT) with a host of target raises. Consesus price target $295 at Buy. Stock currently aroound $252
    • NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) with four price target raises. Stock currently around $191
      • Raymond James from $220 to $230
      • KeyCorp from $225 to $235
      • Jefferies from $208 to $235
      • Mizuho from $192 to $225
    • Raytheon Technology (RTX) target raised by Morgan Stanley (MS) from $89 to $97 at Overweight. Stock currently around $84
    • Shopify (SHOP) target raised by Piper Sandler from $1500 to $1600 at Overweight. Stock currently around $1122
    • Shutterstock (SSTK) target raised by JMP Securities from $100 to $110 at Outperform. Stock currently aorund $88
    • Visa (V) with a host of target raises. Consensus price target $275 at Outperform. Stock currently around $233
    • YETI target raised by Jefferies Financial Group from $100 to $115 at Buy. Stock currently around $87

    "The true investor welcomes volatility ... a wildly fluctuating market means that irrationally low prices will periodically be attached to solid businesses" - Warren Buffet.

    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
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    A Modest Defense of Overreactions

    Posted: 04 May 2021 01:22 PM PDT

    Ok. I (and everyone here by now) knows that these are relatively small drops and understandable after such a historic bull market. But a lot of us just started investing in February after meme stocks got us interested. And a lot of people here and elsewhere said "time in the market beats timing the market." So we, not knowing what we were doing, invested at the top. And now, when the market is going down, we're going red. Because, unlike many of you, we didn't get all the massive gains. So you're going from +50% to +40% and we're going -10% to -20%.

    I'm not trying to say we're blameless- I definitely put in too much money to start off with when I didn't know what I was doing [not even on memes, just bought high valuations]. Not trying to absolve responsibility here. But also, I do think the smug attitudes and "wHaT ArE YoU GUyS InVEStEd In?!" is a bit much. We get it. We made some mistakes. I, at least, even appreciate the warnings about planning how we'd feel if it drops a lot more and what we'll do. But I also think it's ok to feel scared and sad about losing money without getting so much attitude.

    submitted by /u/HonestlyDontKnow24
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    What about Horizon’s INFL inflation beneficiaries ETF?

    Posted: 04 May 2021 11:00 AM PDT

    Listened to a good podcast yesterday where they were talking to one of the fund managers for the INFL ETF. Obviously he has a lot better understanding of the details and strategies here than I ever could. Everyone seems to be thinking about inflationary risk and how to position themselves, and it sounded like this ETF is a good way to do that without having to try and pick individual stocks myself. What do you guys think?

    His strategy seemed to be targeting resource companies that make money not directly from extraction, but through from some complicated financing of their operations that I didn't really understand. The other large group of companies were financial exchanges like Chicago Mercantile and some data companies than benefit from volume and have relative freedom to adjust to price changes. These justifications seemed sound to me, but again I'm very aware of my ignorance.

    Curious what you guys think about this or other options to hedge against inflation. Do ppl like this positioning and believe the underlying reasoning is correct? If not, what is your strategy?

    submitted by /u/hicestdraconis
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    AMD Big Moves Coming

    Posted: 04 May 2021 12:56 PM PDT

    Considering the current situation with AMD. There is a possibility to make some money, since they are oversold currently.
    I would suggest buying stock for those with low risk tolerance and options for those with high risk tolerance.

    As always, Stay Frosty

    CHART:
    https://imgur.com/a/Pi4jQd3

    submitted by /u/RssnGopnik
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    Why is NVDA worth so much more than AMD?

    Posted: 03 May 2021 07:38 PM PDT

    I'm newer to the game so maybe someone can help me with this. I am sure I am missing something basic but, looking at their revenue, NVDA is not much more than AMD. NVDA shows $5 billion for quarterly revenue January 21 and AMD is showing $3.44 billion for the same time period. So roughly, 1.5 times as much revenue.

    NVDA is shown being valued at $370 billion and AMD at $97 billion. That means NVDA is worth almost 4 times as much with only 1.5 times the revenue. Why is this?

    I like AMD and have been invested since March of last year and plan to keep buying more, but I just wonder why they are worth so much less. Again, I am sure I am missing something very fundamental here so any input is greatly appreciated.

    submitted by /u/thenudedentist
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    Post covid play, HVAC companies for long

    Posted: 04 May 2021 08:32 AM PDT

    I work in medicine and routinely diagnose covid patients. We have a better understanding of how covid is spread - almost exclusively by respiratory droplets. Very little surface transmission or even via clothes. Is there a play here for long HVAC companies such as CARR? I forecast covid in some capacity is here to stay, indoor air quality needs an overhaul.

    submitted by /u/Bulkypalo
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    Sell ICLN and QCLN?

    Posted: 04 May 2021 09:02 AM PDT

    Sell ICLN and QCLN?

    I bought QCLN @79.22 and ICLN @29.60 and honestly, it's just been months of headaches. The two just keep sinking and sinking and honestly, I'm thinking about taking a big loss and put it towards something that will make up for that loss. Personally, I don't want to wait 2 years for it them both to reach the price i bought them for. Though if i do sell them, It'll be at a 26% and 24% loss. So any thoughts?

    submitted by /u/DavidNguyen2354
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    Israeli Health Officials Expect Biannual Vaccinations

    Posted: 04 May 2021 01:24 PM PDT

    2022 and 2023 Vaccine Purchases Delayed as Israeli Health Officials Expect Biannual Vaccinations

    [Sauze]

    Sources involved in the purchase of additional vaccines on Wednesday morning responded to the claim that Israel may be stuck with excess vaccine doses and told Israel Hayom that it will be necessary to vaccinate the entire population every six months. As to the criticism of the high cost of the vaccines, which several Israeli news outlets put at NIS 3.5 billion ($1.05 billion), those same sources said the real cost is lower.

    But they supported the position that the purchase of 36 million new vaccines is needed, because the vaccine may be given every six months, in two doses each time, with the expectation that in the near future young people under 16 will also be vaccinated.

    Holy shit!

    And they are already ordering for 2024!

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/ottawa-inks-deal-with-pfizer-for-millions-of-covid-19-booster-shots-through-2024-1.5399696

    And pfizer vaccine storable in standard freezer!

    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-04-pfizer-ceo-vaccine-easier-ship.html

    And israelis use pfizer 100% just like europe!

    https://m.dw.com/en/eu-puts-faith-in-pfizer-jab-with-plan-for-18-billion-doses/a-57201551

    submitted by /u/BareAuthority
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    Stop panicking. Come up with a plan.

    Posted: 03 May 2021 05:09 PM PDT

    I know some of you are tired of these "it's ok everything will be ok" posts, but the daily thread is a mess. Browsing it would make some of you think that the market is down 10%.

    If you're looking at your portfolio and it's really doing a number on your stomach, you need to reevaluate your positions.

    Maybe you took more risk than you wanted to. Maybe you put too much in a risky position. Maybe you bought into the hype. Maybe you thought with your heart and said "[insert company] will never go away so it must go up!"

    Well, you're here now. What's your plan?

    COME UP WITH A PLAN

    Good investors come up with plans. They don't sell on red days or green days. They sell when something happens that changes their initial reasons for buying.

    Are you going to hold forever? Are you selling before earnings? Are you selling if it gets to whatever price? Are you going to keep buying?

    You must have a plan. Once you have this plan...

    STICK TO THE PLAN

    Do not deviate. Don't say "maybe it will come back up" or "maybe it will come back down". Sticking to your plan is crucial. This is how you can manage your risk. It doesn't matter what happens in the next day or week or year. You did what you thought was the best action to take in the moment because you stuck to your plan. In time, you will tweak your plan to maximize your potential and minimize your downside. Don't look back at a position and feel great or bad. Just evaluate whether you made the right decision based on the information you were working with at the time.

    TAKE YOUR EMOTIONS OUT OF THE EQUATION

    Do you think Warren Buffett panics every time there's a red day? Absolutely not. Then why should you? If you let your emotions get the best of you, you WILL do something stupid. The stock market does not care, so why should you?

    There are going to be many red days ahead. Are you ready for them?

    See you tomorrow!

    Edit: a word

    submitted by /u/Zarten
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    Is dividend yield or amount chosen first?

    Posted: 04 May 2021 01:17 PM PDT

    When companies decide to begin paying a dividend, do they decide the amount, and base the yield on the share price, or do they decide a yield, and pay the amount based on yield compared to the stock price? Hope this makes sense!

    submitted by /u/Carmelo7c3
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    Please explain how margin calls are executed. Do they liquidate the entire portfolio?

    Posted: 04 May 2021 11:54 AM PDT

    Wondering how brokerages execute margin calls, specifically TDA. Is there a percentage limit before tDA steps in to sell positions off or is it a specific number like -$10k? Do they sell your positions entirely or most recent?

    Having a super red day (like most of us) and I do not want to let go of anything right now.

    submitted by /u/ZenoofElia
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    CLOUDERA stock

    Posted: 04 May 2021 10:29 AM PDT

    What do you guys think about this stock? It has gotten some very good news recently and I think the stock has tremendous promise. It is much more reasonably priced at the moment compared to stocks that are similar to it. It has beaten its EPS for numerous quarters. What are your opinions on this stock? Would you invest in it it? Why or why not?

    submitted by /u/Confident_Glass_6381
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    If I made a profit why do I feel like a loser?

    Posted: 04 May 2021 09:16 AM PDT

    So I started with 3 grand, I lost about a grand due to bad investment. This morning I was up 5200 dollars, and now I'm at 4.9k, my question is why do I feel like a loser if I made nearly 2 grand in the past week?

    I genuinely do not know why I feel like I have lost everything.

    submitted by /u/icweiners69
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    Don't be me, stay strong

    Posted: 04 May 2021 01:44 PM PDT

    I think I am just writing to vent.

    The past 4 months have been a learning lesson for me.

    I finally started to understand that this is not as easy as some people make it out to be.

    Started in Dec. Was sure solar (TAN), Lithium great buys got into tech etc (ARKK).

    Mid Feb was up 20%, cloud-9

    Then the crash in March, starting selling buying other things. Decided to do the wheel w/ CSP / CC (thinking it is safer).

    Slowly started to buy more value ETFs and dumping my specific stocks.

    Kept telling myself that I need to be patient, at the same time checking the stock app 10 times an hour.

    Today I think was the last of it. I had FSLY CSP for 63.5 (did my DD, love the company) but today that CSP was negative 200$ (but, would end up getting assigned, got scared, sold the CSP took the loss, and bought VTI).

    I still have some speculative stuff, one being TAN but think I will end up holding it,

    Overall, up 2% since I started.... (down 18% from the top).....

    Just had to vent.

    submitted by /u/alexshim
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    Any money-related reason for Bill and Melinda Gates divorcing ?

    Posted: 04 May 2021 01:31 PM PDT

    Ok I don't want to get into conspiracy theory shit but I'm just curious: is there any possible reason economically/financially that the Gates are filing for divorce ? Are there any benefits financially for them by doing this given the current or possible economic tailwinds ? their assets? taxes ? anything ? If Bill Gates was diagnosed with cancer, could he save money from inheritance/estate tax if Melinda Gates took half from divorce ?

    submitted by /u/stevejobswasmurdered
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    ODFL Old Dominion Freight Lines. 30% yoy return since 2000?

    Posted: 04 May 2021 01:40 AM PDT

    Does anyone know anything about Old Dominion? I looked on portfolio visualizer and it's averaged a 30% cagr since 2000. From 2011 to 2021 wad also around 30% cagr and from 2016 to now was 42% cagr.

    Seems like a good long term play?

    Maybe I'll throw $1000 in.

    submitted by /u/apooroldinvestor
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