Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 05, 2021 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 05, 2021
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Questions about my Roth IRA options, reposted from /r/personalfinance.
- Corsair Gaming Q1: EPS beats by $0.25, beats on revenue; raises full-year outlook
- Commodities - Futures or Producers?
- In your opinion is crypto-currency a sound investment?
- Investment options for the money saved for down payment of the house
- Persistent high inflation won't happen
- Checking my understanding of why the market portfolio is the tangency portfolio, and why market-cap-weighting is correct under MPT / CAPM
- Has any possession 'become' an investment over time due to appreciation?
- Sernova (TSXV: SVA/ OTC: SEOVF) has made big changes to it board of directors in preparations for NASDAQ listing
- What I missed with morning star ratios?
- Has the market topped (for now)?
- What does it mean to sell Futures against your spot holding position and how to do that?
- New Found Gold Intercepts 124.4 g/t Au Over 17.7m and 131.1 g/t Au over 4.65m at Keats
- Selling stocks suggestion
- Why You Should Short The Intel Fab Play
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 05, 2021 Posted: 05 May 2021 02:01 AM PDT Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 05 May 2021 02:00 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Questions about my Roth IRA options, reposted from /r/personalfinance. Posted: 04 May 2021 05:11 PM PDT The AutoMod decided this was a bad post for /r/personalfinance so I am here now. Hello /r/investing I was wondering what I should do in regards to my Roth IRA, basically I am focused growth, with plans to retire at age 55-62 depending on how everything goes (IE I hit whatever number I feel is appropriate I am done). Currently I have about 9K in my Roth IRA, and 11K in my 401k, with plans to move much of that 401k money into my Roth so it can be maxed out. My main questions are what exactly should I read to have more confidence in what I am doing, what should I be investing in, and should I use their roboinvestor (Even with the fees). My understanding of my options are:
Basically my concerns are the level of risk I am taking, and the amount that I will pay for expert advice on my little bit of money. Thanks. [link] [comments]  |
| Corsair Gaming Q1: EPS beats by $0.25, beats on revenue; raises full-year outlook Posted: 04 May 2021 04:38 AM PDT Corsair Gaming (NASDAQ:CRSR): • Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.58 beats by $0.25; GAAP EPS of $0.47 beats by $0.18. • Revenue of $529.4M (+72% Y/Y) beats by $76.13M. • Gaming and creator peripherals sales increased 132% to $175.9M. Gaming components and systems revenue was up 52% to $353.5M. • Gross margin was up 480 bps on the year to 30.3%. • Adjusted EBITDA was up 197% to $80.4M. • The company reduced debt by $28M in the quarter with the outstanding principal now at $299M and net debt at $177.3M. • Outlook: Raising net revenue to be in the range of $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion from $1.8 billion to $1.95 billion (consensus: $1.91B); Raising adjusted operating income to be in the range of $235 million to $255 million from $205 million to $220 million; Raising adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $245 million to $265 million from $215 million to $230 million.
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| Commodities - Futures or Producers? Posted: 04 May 2021 07:37 PM PDT Hey folks. With talks of looming inflation, and the rotation into value, inflation-protected, and "reopening" oriented stocks, I figure more than a few people are looking to adjust their portfolios a bit, and may have some similar questions. Something I had not heavily considered before now are the advantages of futures compared to equity in the producers of a commodity. Say ETNs / ETVs like JJC or CPER vs. an ETF like COPX. I'm curious what advantages there are behind going either route, or for some insight behind why one might pick one over the other in the current economic landscape. [link] [comments]  |
| In your opinion is crypto-currency a sound investment? Posted: 05 May 2021 12:21 AM PDT I've got a good friend who has been told that a certain crypto-currency is going to rise substantially (I know I know... I'm cynical as well). The thing that makes me ponder whether this is genuine or not is that the advice she has received is from a very trusted source to her - i.e. someone with a lot of money who wouldn't deliberately steer her wrong. I've always thought of crypto-currency as just a big gamble - a bit like AIM penny shares - but I'm not an "investor" as such and don't know a lot about investing. I wondered whether, in your opinion, there's any future in cc and which currencies (if any) you would see as a 'good' investment? [link] [comments]  |
| Investment options for the money saved for down payment of the house Posted: 04 May 2021 04:18 PM PDT From 2016-2019, I was saving for a down payment + closing costs. And I used to put that money in the online savings account. Around that time I used to get around 3% APY which was good considering I had access to the money and didn't want to loose the principal. In 2020, with Covid and uncertainty around job, I didn't pursue my house search. And even for the next 2 years at least I am not going to buy the house for some reason. Now for the next two years, I want to invest that principal so that it does not lose its value because of the inflation. At the same time, I don't want to lose that principal because I had worked so hard for it. TLDR: Can you guys suggest me some investment options so that it satisfies the following goals: 1. Higher rate of return than online savings account 2. Low risk investment that is inflation protected and don't loose on the initial principal [link] [comments]  |
| Persistent high inflation won't happen Posted: 04 May 2021 04:33 AM PDT The Fed can raise interest rates to infinity in lock step with rising prices to tame inflation when they want. This Fed power is far more effective than money printing. Right now, they want asset inflation, which through a wealth effect, stimulates aggregate demand. Powell doesn't want or need to spook markets. Markets obey him. The lessons from the 18/19 market tantrums, Europe after the 08 crisis, and Japan's lost decade were that stagflation (moderate inflation, rolling recessions) has a gravitational pull. It is better to risk moderately higher average inflation in the short to medium term to reach escape velocity. Current sources of inflation are tied to asset inflation (housing inputs) and only seem dramatic in the the short to medium term. The Fed is comfortable with this because they want the wealth effect from asset inflation. This will make people feel rich so they spend freely as COVID goes away. Also, the Fed has orders of magnitude more data and gets it at speeds that were unimaginable four decades ago. Why four decades? That's how long it's been since we had an inflation problem! The Fed will coast or feather the brake pedal to slow down, instead of stomping down on repurchases. They've learned how to do so from the 2018/2019 market tantrum. The Fed is correct to be much more concerned about escaping stagflation. ELI5: Basically all the stocks that have crashed because the companies don't generate free cash flow will go up again. Market is about to do a headfake. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 04 May 2021 01:03 PM PDT (And the strong version of EMH) Assumptions:
Then, the market portfolio is the best mean/variance portfolio: if a higher Sharpe ratio portfolio existed, then everyone would recognize this and use it, changing the prices in the market, making the portfolio worse than or equivalent to the market portfolio. And if I wanted to invest in the market portfolio, I would buy a fractional share of the market, the components of which would then be weighted by their value in the market (their market capitalization) Is that all accurate? Are there points that should be changed? [link] [comments]  |
| Has any possession 'become' an investment over time due to appreciation? Posted: 05 May 2021 01:38 AM PDT I'm wondering if anyone else has experience with items becoming investments over time due to massive appreciation in value. Last year, I bought a couple of vaunted Magic cards from its early history, such as a Black Lotus, figuring that it was the only chance to own one after a 500% increase in the past few years. I had no expectation of it doubling again in price, which makes me second guess holding a 5 figure piece of cardboard. I bought an apartment for an eyewatering amount of money a few years ago in a HCOL city and I never consider housing to be an investment. Every day, I'm wondering if I'm sitting on a ticking time bomb in that the bubble might burst, or that I should hold onto dear life, since owning property is the best hedge against further property appreciation. Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 05 May 2021 04:10 AM PDT Sernova has appointed a high caliber executive to its board of directors. Source: https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/mustgrow-investor-webcast-today-tuesday-may-4th-at [link] [comments]  |
| What I missed with morning star ratios? Posted: 04 May 2021 01:22 PM PDT Hi folks, I'm currently trying to check EV/EBITDA ratios on morning star. However, if I look at their results and I do the same calculation with their data on the Entreprise Value and the EBITDA, I'm obtaining a different result. Let's take an example with WFG (because you like Timber right? ;) ) : https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/wfg/valuation If I look the ratio EV/EBITDA on 2018, I read 3.15 . Ok, now let's take a look of their numbers in this page and the performance page : https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/wfg/performance EV 2018 : 3.73 Bn EBITDA 2018 : 1.36 Bn So, 3.73/1.36 = 2.74 ...... Did I do something wrong? Because it's the case for all stocks that I tried to calculate the EV/EBITDA.... I would be very pleased if you can show me the explanation of theses differences. [link] [comments]  |
| Has the market topped (for now)? Posted: 04 May 2021 06:23 AM PDT I've read a number of articles over the last few days, not so much the 'sell in May and go away' stuff, but articles such as this one, all of whose theme is along the same lines:
What do you guys think? Are we at/near a top, are we going to drift sideways/go through a kangaroo market, are we set for a draw-down and restart a la 2018? Or do you think it is still generally positive? [link] [comments]  |
| What does it mean to sell Futures against your spot holding position and how to do that? Posted: 04 May 2021 07:47 AM PDT I found this quote and like to know what it means and how you can do this strategy in practice?
The context was that you prefer to hold onto your spot and not give it away too soon. Can someone give one practical example without using real names of assets? What are involved steps to sell Futures against your spot holding? [link] [comments]  |
| New Found Gold Intercepts 124.4 g/t Au Over 17.7m and 131.1 g/t Au over 4.65m at Keats Posted: 04 May 2021 05:07 AM PDT
Greg Matheson, P.Geo., Chief Operating Officer of New Found, stated: "The outstanding intervals of 131.1 g/t Au over 4.65m plus 124.4 g/t over 17.7m in Hole NFGC-20-59 yield the highest width x grade of any hole to date at Keats (cumulative +2800 m*g/t). These intervals provide further drill confirmation of the substantial zone of near surface high-grade gold mineralization at the north end of Keats. We continue our infill and step-out drilling at Keats and look forward to reporting further results in the near future." [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 04 May 2021 10:49 AM PDT So I have $cciv that I wish that I haven't bought. One of my close friends told me to get this stock and for a span of 2 days it dropped 200%. I haven't done research and doing this time I was investing for under a month. It's not that I don't like the stock, I'm just trying to arrange my portfolio to my liking. I don't plan to invest in this stock long term because I have a holding of another EV company in which I strongly believe in. I have researched more into another EV company rather than $cciv. My question is should I lower my share average to a optimal price so I can sell the stock or should I just wait till the stock goes up 200% to sell the stock? *I didn't know anything about stop loss during this time (which I should've put) [link] [comments]  |
| Why You Should Short The Intel Fab Play Posted: 04 May 2021 09:57 AM PDT Intel has risen on news that it will spend $20B on establishing chip manufacturing factories in Arizona, but this news is more bearish than bullish to me. Investing in Intel now, is nonsensical once you consider the full situation. I reiterate my bearish position on Intel and recommend a diagonal put play. I've more-or-less officially been an Intel bear for a few months now. As of late, many have asked me whether I am changing my stance on Intel due to its $20B manufacturing facility (FAB) production project. As much as I would love to reverse directions and proclaim myself a born-again Intel bull, I must objectively call Intel's announcement as another bearish catalyst. In light of this news, I am happy to double down. Today, I will explain my viewpoint. The Fab Ahab: Ahab was the seventh king of Israel. He inherited a powerful kingdom but was eventually brought down due to his own vices and not upholding his responsibilities. Many consider Ahab to be Israel's worst king. Intel shares many similarities with Ahab. The company easily dominated the chip kingdom with its x86 IP, but this made Intel a bit too complacent: Easy money from x86 led the company to focus more on maintaining the status quo than moving the foundry market forward. In its comfort, Intel has lost its partnership with Apple (AAPL), who has successfully developed M1, a chip much more efficient than the previously used Intel x86 chips; failed to keep up with the shrinking node trends, currently struggling to produce 10nm chips while others are working on 3nm; and has even been overtaken by AMD, which long sat in Intel's giant shadow. Intel's story – to me – looks like a downfall story in the making. Intel finally sees the need to fight back, and the two fabs in Arizona, due 2024, at the cost of $20B is the latest strategy. However, it is a risky strategy. Adding fabs to the business is not just a one-time cost of the $20B but requires consistent upkeep and upgrade costs, something more like $20B per year, which, over the coming decade, would be more than Intel's total current equity. Intel is thus further adding operational costs to its business during a time when the company is expected to see shrinking revenue and earnings. Typically, the responsible reaction to such earnings decay is to cut down on costs. Intel would seemingly rather throw Hail Marys. Hail Mary: I call the fab announcement a Hail Mary not because adding fabs is inherently a bad idea but because Intel seems to have little time remaining on the clock to benefit from this action before it finds itself well behind its competitors. Intel should have built fabs years ago when it was still the market leader and still growing earnings. Intel could have become the go-to chip manufacturer in the US, but now it faces an uphill battle in light of how strong Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM) and Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) have grown over the past decade. At roughly the same time as Intel's announcement to build fabs in Arizona, TSMC (henceforth TSM) announced its own fab construction in Arizona. Clearly, there is a rush to build fabs in the US, and the reason, too, is clear: China. The US reliance on Taiwanese fabs combined with increasing concerns over a Chinese invasion of Taiwan means that the US would love a modern fab stateside. That is, Intel's decision to create fabs at this time was not decided in a vacuum; instead of the decision being a business-focused decision, it is a situation-focused decision – a decision of convenience rather than one for the sake of shareholders. Intel's Fab Focus In Question: Intel could be attempting to cozy up to the US government with its new fabs. The Department of Defense certainly wants some fabs stateside as China's shadow grows over Taiwan. Intel might be playing the Tesla (TSLA) game by looking for taxpayers to help subsidize its business, gaining a novel edge over AMD. In any case, I don't see the news fabs to be transformative for Intel in the positive sense. If Intel is really going all-in on fabs, we will need many years before we see a significant payoff. Investing in INTC now, during a time of nose-bleed tech valuations and during earnings contractions is not a smart investment decision. And if Intel is looking for government subsidies by being the main US chip manufacturer, this is essentially a white flag; Intel cannot compete in the game of technological advancements and needs a handicap. This is not Tesla being subsidized as it forays into a fledgling industry but an old, stubborn company attempting to stay afloat via means outside its own merits. You would be better off investing in AMD or TSMC if you want exposure in US chip design or manufacturing. Overall, I reiterate my bearish outlook on Intel relative to the rest of the chip industry. The upward momentum in Intel and its current price are not sustainable by the news: The fabs and other aspects I've mentioned in previous articles are perceived as bullish while they are in fact bearish. [link] [comments]  |
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