Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 01, 2021 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 01, 2021
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- This Barron's article might explain Tesla's sudden surge today: Tesla Stock Turns Higher Because Sales and Deliveries May Blow Away Estimates
- Not a single one of you are able to argue why “growth will collapse”
- Inflation and yield expectation
- Ryan Melsert speaks!! (ABML CTO)
- Ford Needs to Rethink Their Strategy
- $NAPA - Valued at a discount
- Advice on vaxart call options
- TXMD’s Chief Commercial Officer is an all time star ⭐️⭐️⭐️! Was running a 300-person team at Pfizer’s Women Health Division before joining TXMD! Sure she can drive sales of Annovera and grow TXMD's 300+ employee company... That's another reason for which I will buy on monday 18,235 shares of TXMD...
- USA India Travel ban and covid play $IMNM
- HE1/HLOGF: Helium One Global: Couple Notes
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 01, 2021 Posted: 01 May 2021 02:01 AM PDT Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 01 May 2021 02:00 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 30 Apr 2021 10:45 AM PDT A wave of pessimism that has hurt Tesla stock in recent days may be starting to recede. Stock in the electric-vehicle pioneer was on its way to a fourth consecutive daily decline when the shares turned around in midday trading Friday. Two factors—both related to 2021 performance—may be making investors more upbeat heading into May. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock started out the week at about $729 and closed Monday at $738.20, ahead of the company's first-quarter earnings report that afternoon. Earnings were higher than Wall Street expected, but questions about the quality of the reported earnings—the degree to which trading in Bitcoin and sales of regulatory credits for producing zero-emission cars lifted the number–sent the stock lower. Lingering concern over a recent crash of a Tesla vehicle in Texas dragged on the price too. The stock opened Friday at about $668, $71 lower than Monday's close, and down 1.4% from Thursday's final level. By early afternoon, though, shares were up about $43, or 6.5%, from the daily low, at $709.55. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, for comparison, were each down about 0.6%. The stock-price bounce might just be a relief rally marking the end of the post-earnings selling spree. But two bits of news, both communicated via Twitter (TWTR), appear to be at work as well. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu tweeted out Thursday that STMicroelectronics (STM) believes its revenues from sales of silicon carbide will hit $550 million in 2021. The company said as much on its April 29 earnings conference call. It matters because according to Ferragu, STMicro is Tesla's sole supplier of silicon carbide,. He says Tesla accounts for 80% of the company's silicon-carbide sales, and that sales of $550 million imply Tesla would produce as many as 1 million vehicles. Wall Street is looking for 800,000 Tesla deliveries in 2021. A million vehicles would be an enormous surprise. Gary Black, an influential market watcher, also tweeted out something he uncovered in Tesla's recent 10-Q quarterly filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In the filing, Black noted, Tesla's board of directors said it is "probable" that Tesla's annualized sales will hit $55 billion, a milestone that would trigger the grant of stock options to CEO Elon Musk. Wall Street analysts believe Tesla's 2021 sales will be less than $50 billion, so a figure of $55 billion would be a second enormous surprise for investors. Black is a former Wall Street analyst and money manager who has amassed almost 74,000 followers tweeting about stocks, including Tesla. Ferragu, for his part, rates Tesla share at Buy and has a $900 price target for the stock. [link] [comments]  |
| Not a single one of you are able to argue why “growth will collapse” Posted: 01 May 2021 02:59 AM PDT Reading through this sub you get the feeling that everyone "knows" it but no one is exactly giving a single reason for why, other than "it should because of high valuations". It reads as a lot of wishful thinking and arrogance. Where the hell do you place Apple, the largest company in the world growing 50%? Growth has outperformed value for 20 years, and the winners of the dot com crash , like Apple, Microsoft and Amazon, have outperformed everything by a huge margin in the last 30 years. Either the valuation methods were good to use and it's just that the type of company that wins the future has so much higher margins and network effects that the definition of key value metrics has to change, OR (like many here seem to suggest), somehow this will all "regress to the mean" and somehow Sysco, public enterprise group, and Cincinnati Financial (great companies I also own) will eventually outperform the other ones I mention? It has nothing to do with finance and everything to do with business model. If you can't understand how business has changed finance, then you will continue to underperform by relying on outdated financial discipline viewpoints. [link] [comments]  |
| Inflation and yield expectation Posted: 30 Apr 2021 07:09 PM PDT Nothing has changed over the past week. The Fed remains dovish, and in spite of its transitory speak about inflation, prices continue to soar. Biden calls for even more stimulus, but it's doubtful all of it will make it through the Senate. Meanwhile, the parameters for Gold and silver remain the same. Resistance is at 1800 and support is at 1740-50. 25,60 silver Yields are rising again Real yields are flat to lower recently, supporting Gold's move off its lows. While Powell says rising inflation is temporary, all evidence is to the contrary. While yields cannot be allowed to get out of hand and risk the collapse of everything, inflation will continue to rise as the printing presses remain plugged in and supply chains break down. This is the foundation for the coming surge in precious metals. I don't see the 30-Year T-Bond going beyond the 2.75-3.00% resistance zone. I wish I had more to say , but who wants to hear a running post on how paint dries. We have our levels to watch, and given the long slow grind lower following the slingshot to 2100 in Goldand 40 silver , I'm sure that when they break we're going to get some rapid moves to the upside, imho. [link] [comments]  |
| Ryan Melsert speaks!! (ABML CTO) Posted: 01 May 2021 04:07 AM PDT Outstanding interview on the Market Rebellion podcast with Jon Najarian. Ryan Melsert is ex-Tesla, and currently $ABML's chief technology officer. Watch for the DD, stay for the investment opportunity. ABML's closed-loop recycling process is a game changer, featuring new approaches to battery de-manufacturing and rare earth recovery that will fundamentally change domestic supply chains. Low environmental impact, incredibly fast throughout, and huge profit margins. Melsert developed must of this technology during his years at Tesla developing the gigafactory. ABML will partner with battery developers (think: Panasonic, Samsung) and EV developers (think, Ford, GM, Tesla) to create a circular economy that substantially lowers battery costs. There is huge money in this growing industry - were barely top of the iceberg. ABML has funding from the DoE. Ryan Melsert participates on the Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) board. ABML is actively helping federal regulators define future policy. Bottom line, they are already partnering with the government to accelerate how the U.S. builds a domestic battery supply chain for lithium and other rare earth metals. ABML's recycling plant will begin construction in May/June and the company will uplist in 2021. Enjoy the interview (link above)! [link] [comments]  |
| Ford Needs to Rethink Their Strategy Posted: 30 Apr 2021 11:11 AM PDT This is just a short commentary on the potential Ford has and how they are wasting it. Yesterday, Ford released their Q1 results, forward guidance, and plans for the future. Due mostly to the lacklustre guidance, the stock dipped >10%. Investment strategy aside, I believe the single biggest takeaway from Ford's report was their plan for the future. While I'm a big fan of CEO Jim Farley, and his plan to make Ford a more focused (pun not intended) and lean company, I feel like he is focusing more on paths to a higher temporary stock price rather than proper long term investment. To Ford and its management's credit, I do think they are attempting long-term investments, I just believe they are the wrong ones; Ford is investing heavily in electrification and autonomous driving, however, neither of those are sufficiently monetizable and are extremely capital intensive. Additionally, they are investing over a billion dollars for a factory in Cologne, Germany and streamlining the factory process. Expanding on my aforementioned comments, investing in autonomous technologies will not yield Ford any significant reward- they are too behind competitors, it's complex and capital intensive, and it would be just as simple for Ford to partner with, say, Waymo. On the same wavelength, I believe Ford should increase their equity stake in Rivian and use their electric innovations rather than attempting to spend billions on developing their own. On the topic of electrification, Ford should not be attempting to electrify their core lineup of pickups and Mustang's first. It undermines the fundamental principles of both for the time being. Instead, electrification is best suited to the luxury segment of the automotive market- Lincoln for Ford. Electrifying the Lincoln brand could kill multiple birds with one stone, testing EV technology, revitalizing the Lincoln brand, helping increase margins, spending less on analog technology to do things like quiet the vehicles, and so forth. Additionally, handing over control of their software to Google is a big mistake- it eliminates the prospect of extracting monetization from their vehicle, which will be a large aspect of vehicles and will allow competitors to undercut Ford by selling at a loss to extract later value, contrary to what Ford will be able to do. A large issue for Ford when attempting to streamline their lineup and manufacturing process is potentially breaching union contracts by cutting staff- opening a factory in one of the most union-friendly countries in the world isn't helping that. The additional tariffs and whatnot for manufacturing less in the EU would be more than compensated with a more nimble organization. In fact, I'm a proponent of completely pulling the Ford brand out of Europe, which would aid in stressing the 'Americanness' of the brand, where Ford gets much of its appeal in the States. Additionally, once debt is paid down (more on that later), Ford should be working to slowly exit Detroit and expand its manufacturing clout in more business-friendly, union-hostile environments, such as Texas or the Midwest. Not only would this increase Ford's bottom line and transform them into a more agile corporation, but this will also enable greater employment in more states, meaning more lobbying power. Above all else, though, Ford should be focusing on paying down or buying back their debts- it's too much of a drag on long-term growth and investment ability. To do so, they should cut their dividend alongside other cost-saving strategies I've outlined. After the debt is better managed, some key investments Ford should go for are investments in monetizable software, a reintroduction into the sports car foray (Thunderbird, anyone?), new factories in anti-union states, vertical integration of the manufacturing process (and focus on selling parts B2B), expanding their niche commercial operations (such as with police cars currently, they could expand into delivery and so forth), expansion of the high margin Ford Credit, lobbying to be allowed to cut out dealerships as Tesla has, and so forth. Essentially:
Ford is in a position to do great things, while Farley & Co. have improved the company, there is so much more to do that they are ignoring. Obviously, there are subjects I am not aware of, however, from what I've read through their presentation, Q1 report, and 10-Q, these are some things that should be done. Obligatory disclaimer: I don't own Ford, not a fan of the sector as an investment. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 30 Apr 2021 06:27 AM PDT I came across this stock via a low PE screener and realized that I am already familiar with many of their products. They're in the alcoholic beverages industry, own vineyards, and produce a wide portfolio of wine brands sold in 50 countries. I'm a big fan of Decoy for producing cheaply priced but great tasting reds. They had their IPO last month and their price seems to be stabilizing after yoyoing between $16-20. Facts:
This seems like an absolute steal. Competitors in the beverages industry have an average PE of 32.5 and PEG of 0.05 (per TD Ameritrade analytics, anyway). Its a profitable company that has great margins. The primary downside is their tiny market share in a competitive industry. In 2020, their total revenue was $270mil, versus the industry total of $326bil (0.08%). What else am I missing? Why is $NAPA valued at such a discount? EditBad data. Thanks for the replies, everyone. I actually checked the PE data on three different sources but they all said the same thing. I should've known. "When it sounds too good to be true, it usually is..." [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 30 Apr 2021 06:11 PM PDT I bought call options on vaxart with a $9.50 strike expiring may 7. Its in the money now but i was thinking of waiting till after their big press conference on monday to decide do i buy the shares or sell the option. Does anyone have any advice as to which one should be more valuable? I really think if they can provide covid vaccine in a pill form their value is going to sky rocket.....as such i was leaning to just purchasing the shares for a long position. What do you think? Thanks for any advice [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 May 2021 04:37 AM PDT TXMD's Chief Commercial Officer is an all time star ⭐️⭐️⭐️! Was running a 300-person team at Pfizer's Women Health Division before joining TXMD! Sure she can drive sales of Annovera and grow TXMD's 300+ employee company... That's another reason for which I will buy on monday 18,235 shares of TXMD... About TherapeuticsMD: TherapeuticsMD, Inc. operates as a pharmaceutical company. It focuses on the development and commercialization of products for women. The firm's technology, SYMBODA, develops advanced hormone therapy pharmaceutical products to enable delivery of bio-identical hormones through a variety of dosage forms and administration routes. It also manufactures and distributes branded and generic prescription prenatal vitamins, as well as over-the-counter vitamins under the BIJUVA, IMVEXXY, vitaMedMD and BocaGreenMD brands. The company was founded by Robert G. Finizio and Brian A. Bernick in 1907 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, FL. [link] [comments]  |
| USA India Travel ban and covid play $IMNM Posted: 30 Apr 2021 11:54 AM PDT Biden announced that he will ban travel from India for most non USA citizens due to pandemic situation there. There is a company Immunome Inc funded by department of defense that will submit IND for its anti covid drug that is capable in models neutralize Indian mutation. IND is expected in Q2. They just had private investment 27000000 at $27 per share price. Right now it is sitting under $27. TLDR: Low float covid drug that can neutralize Indian variant $IMNM price under private placement at $27. This is government funded (by DoD) covid play. IND q2/q3 [link] [comments]  |
| HE1/HLOGF: Helium One Global: Couple Notes Posted: 30 Apr 2021 12:08 PM PDT Helium is the 2nd most abundant gas in the universe. It's commercial uses include Cloud computing, Data Centres, Semiconductors, MRI scans, space, satellites, military rockets and quantum computing. It has the lowest boiling point of of any element and can therefore be used to keep freeze things at sub zero temperatures like vaccines. Helium One Globals: Project Rukwa drilling is due to start in May, this is the largest known primary helium resource in the world. It is a pure or carbon neutral helium field, promising a green, clean, carbon neutral form of gas. Their site is 138 BILLION cubic feet ( or put another way enough for 20 years global supply). The is already a pent up demand due to its multiple uses, and the price of helium has recently increased from $118 mcf in 2018 to $280 mcf in 2020 The current way helium is gained is as a by- product of oil and hydrocarbon refining and It is currently the only listed company in the UK that offers exposure to primary source helium exploration, whilst the US nears the end of a 25 year privatisation program. Abundant, Valuable, Multi purpose, with a pent up demand, limited supply, ESG credentials and drilling to start in May. GLTA!! [link] [comments]  |
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