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    Thursday, December 31, 2020

    Stock Market - Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning January 4th, 2021 (Happy New Year r/StockMarket!)

    Stock Market - Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning January 4th, 2021 (Happy New Year r/StockMarket!)


    Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning January 4th, 2021 (Happy New Year r/StockMarket!)

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 02:05 PM PST

    Good Thursday evening to all of you here on r/StockMarket. Happy New Year's Eve! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week, month and year ahead.

    Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning January 4th, 2021.

    Politics will be front and center as a catalyst in the first week of the new year - (Source)


    Stocks exit 2020 with strong gains and are riding a tailwind, but already in the dawn of the new year, the market could face its first big challenge.


    The final outcome of the 2020 election plays out Tuesday, when voters in Georgia will pick their senators and decide which party controls the U.S. Senate.


    With President-elect Joe Biden heading to the White House and a Democratic-controlled House of Representatives, Wall Street has been comfortable with the view that Biden and the Democrats could not succeed with tax hikes and more progressive policy changes while Republicans hold the Senate.


    The runoff election for the two Senate seats Tuesday is widely expected to result in one or both of the incumbent Republican senators retaining their seats. But Democrats are close in the polls and should they win, each party would have 50 seats with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris the tie breaker.


    "Georgia is the most important thing to the Biden presidency for the next two years," said Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James. "It's going to determine what is the legislative agenda and who can get confirmed by the United States Senate."


    Sen. David Perdue is being challenged by Democrat Jon Ossoff, while GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler is running against Democrat Raphael Warnock. None of the candidates had more than 50% of the vote in the Nov. 3 election, so Georgia law requires a runoff election between the two leading candidates for each seat.


    "It's a binary event," said Mills, adding it's of growing interest to markets. "The general sense for the market is that Republicans are well positioned to maintain their majority in the Senate. But I think the 2020 election as well as the 2016 election and to some extent, the 2018 election has humbled us … The Senate outcomes, in particular, seem to be less predictable than almost any other elections."


    Mills said the results may take several days to determine, adding to the uncertainty the event could hold for markets. According to an RBC investor survey, 88% expect Republicans to maintain control, and most say that is a positive for the stock market.


    "The market tends to shoot first and ask questions later. There will certainly be a reaction if Democrats win both those seats," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. Strategists say there could be a relief rally if Republican incumbents see a clear victory.


    "That totally dominates [trading] because it's about do we have status quo or do we have Democrats controlling all parts of Washington and what that means for spending and taxes," Boockvar said. "I think you could see the worries about taxes overwhelming any thoughts on the benefits of more spending" by Democrats.


    By the numbers

    A year of extreme volatility ended with a big win for stocks, as the pandemic steered the course for markets. The S&P 500 was up 16.3% for the year, ending at 3,756. That gain comes after a 34% decline early in the year, followed by a powerful more-than 65% rebound. Technology was the big winner for the year, and the Nasdaq was up 43.6% at 12,888.


    Besides the runoff vote, the market will be watching a stream of data in the coming week, including the important December jobs report Friday. That could show fewer than 100,000 jobs were added as the spreading virus impacted hiring and layoffs. There were 245,000 jobs created in November.


    There is also ISM manufacturing data Tuesday, and a number of Fed speakers, including Vice Chairman Richard Clarida on Friday.


    The virus itself could also be a factor for stocks.


    Conventional wisdom for the coming year has been that vaccines will be widely distributed, and by the second half things will start to get back to normal and the economy will pick up. But the initial distribution has been slow, and far short of the 20 million targeted for December by President Donald Trump's task force.


    In that recent RBC survey, three quarters of investors were optimistic about vaccine distribution with 80% expecting a majority to be vaccinated by the end of 2021. "We suspect that the positive outlook for the stock market and the economy would deteriorate if expectations for a smooth vaccine rollout are not met," RBC strategists wrote.


    They also noted that nearly 60% of the investors surveyed believe high stock market valuations are problematic.


    "This suggests to us that any threat to the economic and earnings recovery story could spark profit-taking. On this point, it is worth noting that the vaccine was the No. 1 issue keeping investors up at night, closely followed by monetary policy and excessive optimism on the recovery," the strategists noted.


    Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, said investors will also be watching the formal acceptance of the Electoral College vote Wednesday. Strategists expect the vote count to confirm Biden's presidency.


    However, Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley says he will challenge the certification, and several House Republicans have already vowed to contest the election at that time. If one House member and a senator jointly object to a state's slate of electors, the two houses of Congress must separately debate and vote on the objection.


    Strategists see little chance of any impact on the election outcome, but there could be fireworks. Trump has been claiming since the election that there was fraud but multiple courts failed to find any truth to the claims.


    Rupkey said investors are not taking into account enough potential for political risk from the deep animosity between the two political parties.


    "I think the additional stimulus and hopes for additional stimulus, and infrastructure spending in 2021, I don't know that that is such a slam dunk, because of the issue of political instability," he said.


    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Indices for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Futures Markets as of Thursday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF THURSDAY!)

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

    Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Thursday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

    Major Indices Rally Levels as of Thursday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!]())

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Thursday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Why A Year-End Rally Bodes Well For 2021

    Welcome to the last day of 2020! It has been a devastating year in so many ways, yet for investors it has been quite rewarding. Much of the gains in 2020 have taken place the final two months, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 14% in November and December so far, the best end to a year since WWII.

    A big end of year rally could have bulls smiling in 2021. "Turns out a 10% or more gain the final two months of the year has equaled a higher S&P 500 the following year every single time since World War II," explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "In fact, January was also higher every single time as well, so maybe this strong rally to end the year is a clue for higher prices into next year."

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 gained an average of more than 18% the year following a 10% or more surge during the final two months of the year. Meanwhile, January was up 5 for 5 as well, rising an impressive 3% on average.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here's what the average year looks like after the prior year gains 10% or more the final two months compared to a typical year. Once again, strong returns are the playbook historically.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    We wish everyone a happy and safe New Years Eve and we'll see you in 2021!


    Fifty to Zero in 283 Days

    In a year with some pretty crazy charts, the one below is right up there with some of the best. After all the markets have been through this year, bot the S&P 500 and Long-Term Treasuries have seen nearly identical returns on a total return basis. That's right, with just a few hours left in the trading year, the S&P 500's total return in 2020 has been a gain of 17.6%, while Long Term US Treasuries, as measured by the B of A Merrill Lynch Long-Term Treasury Index has rallied 17.3%. What makes this nearly identical performance all the more incredible is that on March 23rd, the performance gap between the two was more than 50 percentage points.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The fact that stocks and bonds have essentially seen identical returns this year isn't typical. The chart below shows the annual performance spread between the S&P 500 and long-term US Treasuries going back to 1978. During that time, the S&P 500 has historically outperformed long-term US Treasuries by an average of 3.9 percentage points per year, but the average gap in performance between the two has been over 15 percentage points. In the 43 years since 1978, there have only been seven other years where the performance spread between the two asset classes was less than five percentage points and just two years (1985 and 1992) where the performance spread was less than a percentage point.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Back-to-Back Big Years for Technology

    With just two trading days (including today) left in 2020, the S&P 500 Technology sector is on pace for its second year in a row of rallying more than 40%. Going back to 1990, the only time the Technology sector experienced back-to-back returns of more than 40% was in 1998 and 1999. Back then, not only was the Technology sector up 40%+ in back-to-back years, but it was also up over 75% in both of those years. If you think markets are pretty crazy these days, they still have nothing on the last two years of the 1990s!

    In terms of cumulative returns, the Technology sector is up 210% since the last trading day of 2018, whereas in 1999 it was up 317% in a two-year span. What's also interesting to note about the last 31 years of returns for the Technology sector is how it has only experienced five down years, while the S&P 500 has been down in ten different years during that span. Furthermore, since 2009 there has only been one down year and the decline was a paltry 1.6%. Not a bad 12-year run!

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Given that the sector has more than doubled in the last two years, there have been some big individual winners. Topping the list with a gain of just under 400% is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). On the last day of 2018, AMD traded hands for under $20 per share. Today's it's over $90. AMD has a lead of more than 100 percentage points over the next closest stock - NVIDIA (NVDA) - which is up 288%. Interestingly, there aren't a lot of major outliers to the upside compared to the sector's 210% gain, but that's because Apple (AAPL), the sector's largest stock, has paced the sector's gains by rallying more than 240%.

    On the downside, just four stocks in the Technology sector have declined in the last two years. The worst of these has been DXC Technology (DXC) which has lost more than half of its value, while Juniper (JNPR) and HP Enterprise (HPE) are down between 10% and 20%. Lastly, FLIR Systems (FLIR) has declined less than 2%, so depending on how it acts in the next two days, it could move into positive territory just as Intel (INTC) did yesterday after Third Point bailed it out and moved the stock barely into positive territory for the last two years.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Growth Dragging on Small Caps

    In the past couple of weeks, we have frequently been keeping tabs on small-cap equities which have been particularly strong performers of late resulting in very overbought readings as well as extended valuations. More specifically, taking a look at growth-oriented small-caps, with only a couple days left in the year small-cap growth stocks—proxied by the Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO)—are on pace to have outperformed large-cap equivalents in 2020. On December 10th, IWO surpassed the S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) in terms of YTD performance, and even after pulling back in the past week, IWO is still in the lead.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    As a result of recent moves, there has been a sharp reversal on a relative basis between the two ETFs in the past week. In the chart below, we show the ratio of the Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO) versus the S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW). This ratio took off beginning in the early fall meaning small-cap growth drastically outperformed large-cap growth. But the former's weakness in the past several days has put a halt to that move.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    As to just how sharp of a reversal this was, in the five days through yesterday's close, the decline in the ratio of IWO to IVW was the largest since June. Before that, April and March saw declines that were even larger. Not only was this one of the biggest drops in the relative performance of small-cap growth to large-cap growth in the past few months, but that also stands in the bottom 0.5% of all readings going back to 2000 when the ETF first began trading. Outside of this past spring, the only other periods that have also experienced this type of underperformance of small-cap growth relative to large-cap growth was at various points in 2011, 2008, and a handful of times in the early 2000s.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Small-cap underperformance has not necessarily been broad though. For value stocks, small caps (IWN) have generally outperformed large caps (IVE) for the entirety of the new bull market. While there was a bit of a turn lower in recent days, it has been nowhere close to as dramatic of a move as growth stocks.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    In the charts below, we show average performance over the past week of Russell 2000 stocks broken into deciles based on their price to sales and price to book ratios. As shown, the most aggressively valued deciles have averaged the worst performance in the past week. Stocks with low P/S and P/B ratios have not been immune from the weakness, but they have held up significantly better.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending December 31st, 2020

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1.3.21

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)


    Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-


    • (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:


    Monday 1.4.21 Before Market Open:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)

    Monday 1.4.21 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())

    (NONE.)


    Tuesday 1.5.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 1.5.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 1.6.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 1.6.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 1.7.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 1.7.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 1.8.21 Before Market Open:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)


    Friday 1.8.21 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)


    (TB.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    (TB.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (TB.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    DISCUSS!

    What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?


    I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading year ahead r/StockMarket.

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
    [link] [comments]

    Daily Market Recap - Thursday, December 31, 2020

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 01:18 PM PST

    PsychoMarket Recap - Thursday, December 31, 2020

    Stocks traded even before spiking in the last few hours of the session on the last trading day of 2020. The S&P 500 (SPY) finished the day 0.61% up, the Nasdaq (QQQ) finished the day 0.25%, and the Dow Jones (DIA) finished 0.52% up.

    The new $900 billion stimulus package - which includes the $600 stimulus payments, replenished funding for loans through the Paycheck Protection Program, enhanced unemployment benefits, and funds for vaccine distribution, among other measures – was signed into law late Sunday. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin announced that the $600 stimulus checks have started going out this week.

    While the latest stimulus package will offer some support to businesses and families impacted by the pandemic, many view the $600 as insufficient and have called for further relief. Early in the week, the Democratically-controlled House of Representatives voted to pass a bill increasing the amount in the stimulus checks from $600 to $2000, the same amount President Trump demanded last week when he threatened to not sign the new $900 billion stimulus package. However, when the bill was due to reach the Senate floor, Mitch McConnell blocked considerations for the bill

    Heading into 2021, the pace of the vaccine rollout is expected to greatly increase, with President-Elect Biden promising 100 million inoculations in his first 100 days of office and the $900 billion stimulus package will be unleashed into the economy, offering at least some support to families and businesses. Overall, despite the economic strain induced by the coronavirus pandemic, stocks are set to close the year with very strong returns.

    However, the broader economy has not recovered as quickly. US economic output remains far below pre-pandemic levels and 9.8 million people remain unemployed in America. Moving into next year, it is crucial for governments across the world to implement effective and efficient plans to widely distribute the coronavirus vaccine. As Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors said, "Moving into next year, it's going to be how these things play out. Will the vaccine be distributed efficiently, effectively? Will consumer confidence rise to the point where we could get some of this deferred consumption in 2021, which is what the market wants to see? And will consumers be healthy enough, will these stimulus checks keep them above water long enough to have some kind of return to normalcy? The market seems to be priced for these things to work out relatively well."

    Hey Psychos, on a personal note we want to sincerely thank you all for following us this year! Despite the challenges we have faced as a general population, it is refreshing to see that we can turn on each other for support. We offer sincere gratitude toward all of you who have followed us on the journey so far, this is just the beginning! We look forward to growing with you, and wish you a happy and prosperous New Year!!

    See you in 2021!!

    Thank you for everything,

    • The Team at PsychoTrader

    "He who fears he will suffer already suffers because he fears." - Michael de Montaigne

    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
    [link] [comments]

    Stock Market News for Today | LMT, AAPL, ACB, TLRY, FUBO, ARKK & other stock market news

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 05:57 AM PST

    Are investors too bullish right now? What are the latest market movements in the auto industry? Pot get legalized in Mexico while FuboTv Plunges yet again. Let's talk about this and other stock market news

    ~Very Long Post~

    Hello everyone and Good Morning!

    First of all, I wanted to wish everyone a happy new year and hopefully things get better in 2021, and this also brings us at least the great returns that we had in 2020 in the stock market!

    So, let's start with the recap of yesterday, as we saw all 3 big indexes finish the last full trading day of the year in the green, with the Dow Jones leading the way, up .24% and closing at a new record high, while both the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite and the broad market SP500 were up just over .1% for the day.

    We also saw the VIX barely drop yesterday closing just below 23, and with the Georgia runoff election just days away, we can see this going higher if the Democrats win both seats.

    We saw almost 70% of the companies advancing yesterday with most of them trading way below average volume as 7 of the 11 SECTORS finished in the green, with Energy & Materials closing the day up more than 1.3% while the biggest loser was the Communications sector, falling almost 0.7%, as we saw the small-cap stocks regain some momentum, leading the way after they had 2 very bad days to start the week, while the only group that was losing ground yesterday was the large-cap growth sector.

    Here is the HEAT MAP from yesterday that pretty much sums up the other charts as we can see most big tech companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft and even Apple losing ground for the day, while the biggest gainers were companies like Tesla & TSM alongside the industrial sector and companies like Disney and Mastercard.

    Yesterday we also got the investor sentiment SURVEY, which for me personally came in pretty mixed, as I use this as a contrarian indicator. This last week we saw 2.5% more investors moving to the bull's camp, while we also saw almost a 5% increase in bears, as investors become more divided. I think the market is still a little to over bullish and I would avoid to add more money right now, but I wouldn't get of the stock market either. I think this is a good moment to stay put and wait for more developments overall, but there might still be some good opportunities around in the market and I wouldn't avoid getting into those.

    We also got a lot of economic data yesterday, with a survey for business uncertainty for December showing increasing uncertainty for sales growth but a with a small decline in employment growth expectations.

    Meanwhile another number that confirms the investor sentiment survey is the Investor Confidence Index which rose by more than 13 points in November, as investors increased the risk appetite for their portfolios.

    Alongside this we also saw the November pending home SALES decrease by more than 2.5% month over month, but are still up more than 16% since a year ago, with this monthly decrease mostly coming due to the shortage of inventory.

    The Chicago PMI also came in way better than expected and 59.5 vs 57 expected and up from the 58.2 in the previous month with the biggest movement coming from the employment indicator as it rose to a one year high but is still in contraction territory since 2019.

    We also saw the wholesale inventories decrease in November's advance read while the retail inventories saw an increase of .7%, pretty much in-line with expectations while the trade balance also saw a surprise decline in the deficit to more than of $84B, $4B worse than the last revision.

    Today we get initial and continuing jobless claims numbers, alongside the money supply and the FED Balance sheet to end us off for the year.

    In some other stock market news, we saw Fubo sink more than 14% again yesterday after another investing firm announced they have shorted the stock, pointing to the insane valuations of more than $13.000/subscriber.

    We also saw a research that indicated some changes in the market share of car companies with Hyundai/Kia having the biggest gains alongside GM, while Nissan saw the biggest decline in market share, mostly due to selling larger & pricier SUVs with cars continuing to see a decline in sales, while the larger vehicles have started to rebound slightly, as all car makers are bringing more & more SUVs and Trucks to the market.

    Lockheed Martin also was awarded a new Navy contract worth more than $900M as this might help the company start to get back on track while Mexico will become the world largest legal cannabis market as the Mexican Senate passed a bill in November which is expected to receive approval in the lower house by February. This is great news for companies in the sector like ACB, Canopy Growth and the future merged company Tilray & Aphria.

    Also, one of the biggest active ETFs with over $15B in assets, the ARK Innovation ETF saw it's first daily withdrawal since November, as this hasn't experienced weekly outflows since early in 2020, this might have been driven by profit taking as this ETF has surged more than 140% this year and also just the ex-dividend date on the 29th, as people expect for the ETF to have a hard time in duplicating the results of this year, which saw it rise on the back of Tesla and Roku with both of them seeing massive increases, with Tesla having more than 7x-ing this year, as that is the biggest holding in the ETF, but who knows we have to wait and see as TESLA may hit 500K deliveries this year.

    And one last piece of news is that Apple did a big purge in their App Store, removing almost 40K game apps as this was the deadline for the developers to submit a government issued license number that enabled users to make in-app purchases. I don't really think this will have a major impact for the revenues but we will soon find out.

    Let's hope for a good day in the market as US FUTURES seem to be pointing at a mixed open, with the Nasdaq and the SP500 pointing at a good open while the Dow is slightly down, and with no connection to this, in the UK, the BREXIT chapter is finally about to close.

    Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market!

    Have a great day and see you next time!

    submitted by /u/0toHeroInvesting
    [link] [comments]

    Alibaba: Fully detailed Stock Analysis

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 02:38 PM PST

    Alibaba looks like a great opportunity to look into right now. It presents growth at a value price which is ideal in my opinion. I came up with a DCF valuation of $328 at 15% future growth rate. Check out the complete analysis here. Let me know your thoughts on BABA
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-tyC5dLdd0&t=759s&ab_channel=InvestingUntangled

    submitted by /u/value_investor4ever
    [link] [comments]

    2021 Market Outlook

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 12:36 PM PST

    Hello investors, hope you all had great holidays!

    It's been awhile since I last posted one due to a project at my full-time job. I've made it my new year's resolution to continue improving this forum to be more informative and helpful for everyone so please feel free to leave any feedbacks!

    As we enter the new year, I believe it is important to keep things in a broader perspective. That means we need to keep a bigger picture of where we are now and where we are heading, per the Mosaic theory as I mentioned previously in #2 of this post.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/Midasinvestors/comments/ju7zbi/investing_philosophy_plz_read_this/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

    As Howard Marks states in his book "Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side", if we can understand where we are in the broader market cycle, we can position ourselves in better odds to win.

    After all, our goal is to invest for the best risk/reward scenarios, whether it means buying stocks, purchase a house, shorting treasuries, or doing a combination of different things. As long as we take care of the downside, the upside will take care of itself.

    That is why it is critical to understand what's going on around us right now.

    Below are some headlines and graphs that will put things into perspective.

    (Images are not allowed here so please check the original post if you're interested in the graphs)

    https://www.reddit.com/r/Midasinvestors/comments/knxgex/market_commentary_2021_outlook_12312020/

    📷

    Corporate profits improving

    📷

    Negative correlation between debt amounts and corporate yield, either corporate yield has to go up (which means corporate spread widening, or a correction/recession) or the amount of debt has to come down. I believe that it is more likely that the corporate spread will go up as it is much likely for companies to face distress than for them to reduce the amount of leverage in a short period of time.

    Please note this post about how I argued it's more likely for the corporate spread to widen than to narrow.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/Midasinvestors/comments/k53sd5/market_commentary_headed_for_another_december/

    📷

    Large volumes of IG corporate bond issuance

    📷

    Large volumes of HY corporate bond issuance

    📷

    Relatively tight IG spreads

    📷

    Relatively tight HY spreads

    📷

    Low corporate yield

    📷

    Rising amount of companies with covenant-lite loans. Higher amount of CLOs (collateralized loan obligations), which are similar to the collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) seen in 2008. For now, it seems to me that they're bundling a bunch of cov-lite and distressed loans into tranches and selling them to raise money. Don't focus on this too much if you are not familiar with the security but keep this in mind for later.

    📷

    Not surprisingly, energy, cyclicals, and transportations are all struggling compared to the strengths in the tech sector.

    Higher leverage globally and in US

    Investors using record amount of margins to invest.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-double-down-on-stocks-pushing-margin-debt-to-record-11609077600?mod=itp_wsj&mod=djemITP_h

    Stocks close record high

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

    Based on the preceding information, it is pretty clear to see that we have the following list of observations.

    1. More debt, including both IG and HY, are being issued across all sectors, all countries, and all types of institutions, even at the individual levels.
    2. Corporate spreads are compressed, for that matter all rates including munis, ABS, CLOs, loans, and short-term rates (don't get hung up on any unfamiliar names or security types, as the point is that we are seeing both record amounts of leverage when the yields are at the lowest point. Normally, they go the opposite directions).
    3. Risk assets (stocks, real estate, loans, bitcoin?) are trending up.
    4. Economic conditions are improving as indicated by rising corporate profits.

    This is all happening when COVID cases and deaths are surging to record highs and a lot of the countries have imposed restrictions.

    If you were asked in April when the US was just going into a lockdown phase where we would be in late 2020, would you have guessed all of it? Specifically the point about surging COVID cases and deaths in conjunction with a record-high stock market and tight corporate spreads? Personally, I am amazed at all of these as they mostly defy the traditional econ 101 or finance 101 schools of thought. Remember all those PhD economists, market forecasters, and investors arguing for the worst stock market, crazy levels of inflation, and rising bond yields? They all got it wrong. How?

    This leads me to the topic for today's post.

    While the markets have surprised everyone, the list of observations isn't actually all that surprising considering the magnitude of the monetary and fiscal policies.

    We have seen an unprecedented (probably the most used word in 2020) amount of actions from both the Fed and the gov't.

    Source: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-11/56746-MBR.pdf

    Just these two graphs show the extent of the stimulus provided to the country.

    Most of you are probably familiar with the story up until this point, as they have been mentioned numerous times in news articles.

    The next part is where I think it will get a bit interesting.

    My personal opinion on stocks is that we will see a broader market rally for the long term (2-5 years) with a few corrections in between.

    It is the Fed that usually causes a recession or a depression even.

    📷

    If you look closely, most, if not all, recessions were just after when the Fed raised rates. Obviously controlling the rates is not the only maneuver that the Fed pulled over the years but it does indicate the Fed's willingness to turn hawkish (raising rates and tightening monetary policy).

    Remember 2018 Christmas market meltdown? That was also caused by the Fed being too hawkish than the market could handle. JPowell immediately changed his stance based on the market reaction and turned dovish instead.

    But why would Fed try to kill the economy with tighter monetary policy? It's because of the fear of inflation. Inflation can get out of hand in no time and their role is to prevent that from happening.

    The point I'm trying to make is that all we need to focus on at the moment is the Fed action and the government policy in order to see where the market is heading for the next 2-5 years. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that their policies are so significant and so powerful that they are almost single-handedly driving the economic recovery and the markets.

    We don't need to worry about the Fed turning hawkish as the Fed has explicitly promised us we won't get any balance sheet contraction or rate hikes for the next 2-3 years until we have beaten the inflation target on average.

    We also don't need to worry about the government reducing its deficit as they have also promised to spend for the country, and worry about the deficits later.

    To summarize, we've got a few forces in action.

    1. Favorable Fed and government policies -> Positive to the risk-assets
    2. Signs of excess: EV bubble, bitcoin, risk assets rally, margin investing record highs, market sentiment at the highest, put to call volume ratio at the lowest, and so on. -> Negative to the risk-assets
    3. Vaccine coming up -> Positive to the risk-assets

    My personal feeling is that we will certainly see a few quick, out-of-nowhere corrections in the risk markets (stock markets) in the short-term due to the signs of excess I have observed. But the monetary and fiscal policies are too powerful to fight against.

    Therefore, I have positioned myself for shares in stocks, as opposed to call options or bull spreads (as they are too short-term), short treasuries, long gold, long cleantech, and a good amount of cash (20-30% cash). I will be observing the markets from the sidelines for a bit and decide when to pounce.

    As always, please feel free to share your ideas or opinions.

    I hope everyone has a great New Year's Eve and look forward to a great 2021!

    Thanks for reading and see you next year :)

    submitted by /u/gohackthat
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    Should I put money into my mutual fund or my savings?

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 11:34 AM PST

    I have a mutual fund with about 11k in it and a savings with a little under $600.

    Due to surprisingly fortunate events, my checking now has just under 14k.

    I dont know how to best build on my money. This is the most I've ever had and I'd like to keep it safe while growing it as well.

    Literally any advice is welcome.

    Im sorry this isn't super stock related, but I figured y'all would have a better understanding how safe/dangerous investing more in the mutual fund would be vs just throwing it in savings.

    Cheers in advance and happy new year!

    submitted by /u/DannyDidNothinWrong
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    Stock Market - Education Videos

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 02:41 PM PST

    Hello All,

    I am very new stock market. Right now I have invested only in ETF and Index funds.

    I do not want to get into stock market without understanding analysis behind its valuation.

    Can anyone suggest a good online course for learning about stock market?

    Regards,

    submitted by /u/friend_4_life
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    Rate my portfolio

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 08:04 PM PST

    I have $1500 combined in two separate accounts of Robinhood and TD Ameritrade.

    APPL- 1 share

    ARKF- 5 shares

    ARKG- 5.509 shares

    ARKK- 2 shares

    ARKW- 1 share

    Bitcoin- 50 bucks (joke)

    How am doing? What would you change?

    Thanks in advance.

    submitted by /u/Jake_Anastasi
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    Teladoc Health. Buy for 2021?

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 06:57 PM PST

    Hi all, Happy New Years to you all! I hope we all have a better year in 2021.

    I wanted to post about Teladoc Health. Let me know if any of this information is incorrect, but I am just posting what I've found online. I think this is an extremely interesting and unique investment. They are the global leader in telemedicine, and I believe this is the way the future is moving. A study showed that 76% of consumers are interested in virtual care after COVID, as opposed to only 11% of people showing interest before COVID. I think COVID has made a permanent, ever lasting change in the way people view health and virtual appointments. 33% of people said they would leave their current physician to access virtual care as an alternative, and 66% of patients want their current physician to partner with a telehealth provider so that they can access care virtually.

    The generalized bull care for virtual health is; 1. Saves doctors and patients time travelling to and from the place of appointment, 2. Patients are more comfortable to do appointments from the comfort of their home, 3. Insurers will almost guaranteed charge less for virtual appointments. The generalized bear case would show that virtual care cannot provide sufficient details as a physical appointment would, and you cannot check normal vitals such as blood pressure, etc. Most of the time the doctor will send you for bloodwork anyways, so accessing that prescription online is completely fine.

    Basing most of these financials off of their latest release (3Q2020). YoY Q3 revenues increased 109% to 289M. Total visits increased 206% to 2.8 million for the quarter. For the first 3 quarters, their revenue grew 79% to 711M and total visits increased 163% to 7.6 million. For the FULL fiscal year 2020, their revenue is expected to grow 96% to 1.09B. Assuming the 4th quarter visits are the same, they should have around 10 million visits for the full year, which would be ~140% visitation growth YoY (in financial statements they actually say around 10.5 million visits is expected, so a little more than 140%). It is clear visits are skyrocketing and revenues are growing very quick as well. Net loss per share in 2019 was 1.38, as opposed to the expected net loss per share in 2020 to be 1.28, just a 7% increase. This would put Teladoc at a 27 P/S ratio, pretty high; and earnings are still heavily negative. They are going to burn over 100M in losses this year, and with only 1.19B in cash and 1B in debt; the fundamentals don't look all that fantastic.

    Looking forward, the EPS for 2021 are expected to be a loss of 54 (per share), a 58% increase YoY, up from the expected 7% for 2020. Revenues are expected to climb aggressively again to 1.95B, an 80% increase YoY. According to 22 analysts Teladoc's first profitable year will be 2023, where they will make 163M. So based off 2 more years of losses, this means if they continue business as is they will burn less than 200M of their 1B cash, and perhaps can use that remaining cash to worry about short term debt (which they have a lot). I could also see them doing another offering of shares to raise capital one last time for continued aggressive expansion.

    Teladoc has had a 67% CAGR in revenue from 2015-2020, so this basically demolishes the idea that it is a "COVID stock" or "stay-at-home stock". It has had consistent growth since 2015, but this isn't to say that COVID hasn't helped them. COVID has forced/gave people the choice to move their healthcare virtually, and Teladoc claims they have a 90% client retention rate. Meaning most people who try Teladoc once, continue to use it, a great sign. Just looking back into 2018 until now, they have provided free telehealth visits for those affected by Hurricane Florence, Lane, Laura and Sally - as well as California/Western Wildfires. With a 90% retention rate a lot of the individuals who take advantage of these visits probably stay on as permanent Teladoc patients; a fantastic business move while giving positive press regarding the company. In 2019 Teladoc also partnered with Johnston Group - in which 30,000 small to medium sized businesses with the Chambers of Commerce Group Insurance Plan would be able to use their platform.

    Intel recently donated to the World Telehealth Initiative (WTI), a non-profit organization who will leverage Teladoc's telemedicine platform to expand access to care in less developed countries. Teladoc Health has received an endorsement from the National Labor Alliance of Health Care Coalitions (NLA) [the largest alliance of labor unions and labor management coalitions] and 2 accreditations though ClearHealth Quality Institute Telemedicine Accreditation Program (TAP). Nationally recognized agencies are giving Teladoc public compliments. Just added publicity is good.

    They have expanded to give access to virtual healthcare, nutrition services with access to actual nutritionists, mental health care services with access to psychiatrists/psychologists. Teladoc has presence in 175+ countries, and 60 of the top 100 hospitals use Teladoc and Livongo solutions to run their operations. With the acquisition of Livongo, Teladoc has added another exceptional dimension to its business. Livongo provides managed care for chronic illness patients; it collects data and leans on artificial intelligence to come up with solutions and tips those patients to live healthier lives. On their own, Livongo are a positive earning company and have only captured 1% of their addressable market in the U.S. Primarily they deal with diabetic patients and have near-doubled their diabetic patient count in each of the last 4 years. Paired with Teladoc, Livongo believes they can offer its services to over 50,000 members with diabetes; and their solutions can be applied to many more chronic illnesses.

    Teladoc also acquired MedecinDirect - the market leading telemedicine provider in France. In September 2018 they announced Teladoc Global Care Services - 24/7 worldwide service. Looking at the global growth we can see from 2017 to 2019; revenue from outside-of-the-U.S sources was 19M, 75M, 108M in 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively. Just for reference; revenue from inside-the-U.S sources was 215M, 343M, and 445M in 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively. We can see that the proportion of revenue from outside of the U.S is growing on a % basis - a very good sign for Teladoc; meaning their goal of diversifying and expanding their network is working. In 2020 over 20% of their revenue will come from outside the U.S.

    The average rating from 27 analysts is $242.78, a 20% upside from current price, with a high of $305, over 50% upside from current price. Yahoo rates Teladoc a 2.1 between a Hold (3) and a Buy (2) - closer to a Buy. On SeekingAlpha it is rated at just above a 4, which implies Bullish. Walletinvestor expects a 1-Year Forecast of $340 (71% upside), and a 5-Year Forecast of $873 (335% upside). Govcapital gives a 1-Year Forecast of $345 (73% upside), and a 5-Year Forecast of $1335 (565% upside).

    Some of these values are slightly rounded, taken as of December 31, 2020. ARKK's 5th largest holding is TDOC at 4.31% (3,882,585 shares at a value of $790,377,828). ARKW's 5th largest holding is TDOC at 3.53% (933,334 shares at a value of $189,998,802). ARKG's 3rd largest holding is TDOC at 5.75% (2,249,762 shares at a value of $457,984,050). ARKF's 36th largest holding is TDOC at 1.05% (103,554 shares at a value of $21,080,488). Together this means that 4 of the 5 ARK funds hold this company. The 4 funds that do have Teladoc shares have 7,169,235 shares at a value of $1,459,441,168, or an average share price of $203.57/share (a 1.8% downside off of December 31, 2020 closing price). In the past few weeks/months ARK funds have been buying into this company heavily. Do we really think they would invest 1.5 billion USD into it if they didn't believe it would be a good company, with good growth, near and long term?

    In total there is 61% institutional holding. There is also 6% insider holding, meaning they have a lot of money in the company. In the past 12 months insiders have sold 822,242 shares and bought 104,618 shares. That means a net of 717, 624 share sold, which makes sense because it had a huge growth year.

    Teladoc has a very high volatility it seems, with over 10% of shares shorted as of December 15, 2020. This is down from November in which 15% of shares were shorted. So if you are currently, or looking to invest into the Teladoc Health company, expect a high level of volatility.

    Disclaimer: I do NOT hold a position in Teladoc but am heavily eyeing it. I think it shows great signs of a growth company. Another really large benefit is they are a medical stock; they do nothing but good for the people. They provide healthcare virtually in regions where doctors give insufficient care or where there is no care at all. Who doesn't want to invest in something that helps people while also getting good returns? I personally think that it seems like a sound company for a small position.

    Any discussion would be awesome! As always, do your own due diligence, I highly encourage it. Into the New Year I wish everyone well wishes, and good luck!

    What does everyone think about Teladoc Health? Do they believe it is just a "stay-at-home stock"? Are you buying into it?

    submitted by /u/redmitchM
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    NPA thoughts?

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 06:42 PM PST

    Hey I was wondering if you have thoughts on the NPA. It's a Space Mobile stock but has anyone done any research on it. I bought in @$14 but I'm debating on if I should exit out of it cuz it has been red this entire week. Thanks in advance

    submitted by /u/esaung
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    Looking for opinions for a good ETF investment

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 01:03 PM PST

    Hey everyone. I've been messing around in RH for a couple months now, but I'm looking for a good long term investment. I heard ETFs are one of the safer routes to go. Does anyone have suggestions on a cheaper ETF that has some really positive upside in the future?

    submitted by /u/No-Possibility-1235
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    DOGECOIN

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 08:05 PM PST

    I keep hearing dogecoin is getting loaded up at midnight? What's the story on that?

    I keep hearing dogecoin is getting loaded up at midnight? What's the story on that?

    I keep hearing dogecoin is getting loaded up at midnight? What's the story on that?

    I keep hearing dogecoin is getting loaded up at midnight? What's the story on that?

    submitted by /u/th0nzkie41
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    Anybody investing with Merrill Edge?

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 05:49 AM PST

    Im new to investing and my uncle advised me to open a brokerage account with Merrill edge at bank of america. I haven't done any shopping around but they are charging .85% annually idk know if thats high or pretty standard. I thought it was a good idea to go with them since I have no clue what to do as far as picking my own stocks so I figured it would be wise to let a professional manage my account for me. Has anyone had any bad experiences with Merrill edge or is there anything in particular I should watch out for?

    submitted by /u/new_account54321
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    A Good Video on Tesla

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 03:04 PM PST

    I know many here are knowledgeable enough to already know about the p/e ratio of Tesla and much of the other financial information related to this equity.

    I do think though that sometimes a video is able to "bring life" to the numbers or help convey a point.

    I stumbled upon this in another discussion and I thought I would share for the community:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nz7hsHC2ORE&feature=youtu.be

    submitted by /u/Cutsbothwaysx
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    Which are some of your favourite ETFs/Stocks of 2020?

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 10:35 AM PST

    Planning to invest 3k before 3:30 PM EDT on the last day of 2020. Where are you investing in the last few hours of 2020? Should I even bother investing or should I just wait for 2021 for a potential crash and buy it all at low prices?

    submitted by /u/vivi9696
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    What's the verdict on oil?

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 07:46 AM PST

    Energy stocks seemed to be on a bull run until Dec 10, and they've been down or flat ever since.

    Take a look at ERX, or pretty much any oil stock in the last 6 months.
    Anyone know what's going on? I suppose there are three competing stories:
    - very short term: bear, because of COVID
    - medium term: bull, because of vaccine and recovery in demand
    - long term: bear, because of a Biden administration and mounting political pressure

    What's your opinion? Buy oil stocks, or TSLA at 1400 PE?

    submitted by /u/ajfa
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    Index Fund vs Covered Call Index

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 12:56 PM PST

    I have been doing research and found covered call ETFs. I am having trouble determining which path is better. Investing in an index fund like QQQ or VOO or investing in a covered call index fund like QYLD or XYLD. Is one better than the other?

    submitted by /u/Sundev1ls92
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    Anywhere I can look up NYSE stocks in order by current price?

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 05:12 AM PST

    I'm playing this silly game using the additional funds in my Roth not enough to purchase the ETF I like. I bought one share of a stock at 30.00, and want to see how long it takes to build that one share to a 200.00 share with swing trades. It's just a fun exercise to find new stocks, not really worried about how effective a strategy this is compared to going long with one good share. Is there anywhere I can see a list of current prices say from 44.00-45.00 a share in numeric order? I'm only finding lists organized by percentage change, or alphabetically.

    submitted by /u/gcastrato
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    Opening range breakout scan

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 02:39 AM PST

    Hello there,

    I really like the idea of trading opening range breakouts combined with a gap. I think it has a lot of potential because you can be early in an intraday trend. My problem is that I dont know how to scan for these "runner" stocks. I always sit there at the end of the day and look at these high profit opening range breakouts and wonder how to find stocks that will do such an move. I mean finding the breakout is easy because you can just use an scanner that gives you an alert. But what are criterias around the alert that need to be checked to find the stock on a intraday-run? Has anyone of you experience with this kind of setup and if yes can you share the settings of you screener?

    Thank you so much! Stay safe in these times :)

    submitted by /u/Berger1012
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    Building my own stock scanner - Questions

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 06:09 AM PST

    Hey there, I want to build my own stock scanner and have a question regarding this topic. I can do a little bit of C# and Matlab programming. Do you think that it is possible to build a scanner with these programming languages and if yes which language is better for this project?

    Here is my screening process:
    I want to download intraday stock data and run some calculations on it. This has to be done with about 7000 Stocks. Then I need to compare the calculated values to all of these 7000 stocks at the first minutes of the market open to see if the values are correct for the day.

    Also another question is where do I get the historical 1 minute stock data from? It should have a lenght of a quarter year.

    The last question is how do I get the current price changes at the open in my screener? I need some live data in 1 minute canldes. Is this possible?

    Thank you so much for your help!

    submitted by /u/Berger1012
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    How does the stock market work? Why do we have it? Can people actually make money from it?

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 11:40 AM PST

    Sorry if I sound dumb, I asked my dad about it yesterday and he said it was super easy to understand but I don't get it at all and he won't answer my questions and this seemed like the best place to ask.

    Also, how do you buy stock and know when is the best time to buy or sell? thanks :))

    submitted by /u/strawyogurt223
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    Legendary Investor Jeremy Grantham on Emerging Markets

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 07:47 AM PST

    Watchlist: 12/31 New Year's Eve

    Posted: 31 Dec 2020 03:58 AM PST

    Market Notes:

    Futures are flat this morning as the final day of the year is likely to be a non-event.

    The market is still bullish as stimulus payments are rolling out and vaccines are slowly being distributed.

    I'll be trading my normal setups today. Though this week my strategies have not been working very well.

    Have a Happy New Year!

    Watchlist:

    *Low Float

    *FGF watching for a setup above $5

    *ANTE has support at $1.80

    *CPSH has resistance at $3.40

    *SLDB has resistance at $8

    *RLH watching for a setup above $3

    *WBIA has support at $7

    *HNRG has support at $1.30

    *AIKI has resistance at $1.30

    SREV has resistance at $1.80

    VTGN has support at $1.55

    HIMX has support at $7.50

    AMRS has support at $6

    MTNB has support at $1.25

    submitted by /u/tradingforkeeps
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