Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Barclays says 15-17% of US malls may need to be redeveloped into other uses
- [Meta Thread] Re: "can the mods stop locking threads"
- Volkswagen in Norway is doing very well
- Seems like day trading is not worth it.
- Why is green energy rallying all of the sudden
- Historical option prices on S&P500
- LendingClub closing its core notes platform
- Talk to me about Big Lots ($BIG)
- SPACs (2020) vs Reverse Mergers (2010-2012) - Any frauds concerns?
- Anti trust probe against AMZN, APPL, GOOG, FB
- $AAPL - Needham says House Report on Antitrust should not impact Apple
- 1 Bloomberg: How ‘Animal Crossing’ Is Preparing Players to Trade Stocks
- How much did it crash the house market in 2008?
- What do you think about the Sterling Trader Pro Platform?
- Wait till INRG (ICLN) drops a bit or just dump back in?
- Something change with French companies' names? "Total S.A." is now "Total SE".
- Have we seen anything like Tesla stock before, and if so how did it end?
- Europe sources of battery materials
- Is solar the next safe harbor?
- Better to invest in successful cloud companies or cloud ETFs?
- Risk of Business Insolvency during Coronavirus Crisis
- Advanced ETF Strategy
- Is Zack’s good advice?
- Stan Weinstein Sequel?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 07 Oct 2020 05:12 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Barclays says 15-17% of US malls may need to be redeveloped into other uses Posted: 07 Oct 2020 08:50 AM PDT Barclays: "The COVID-19 pandemic has likely accelerated a long-expected rationalization of retail capacity in the US. Our modeling suggests that 15-17% of US malls may no longer be viable as shopping centers and need to be redeveloped into other uses. While that is a big number, it is lower than the share of loans that are currently in default in the sector (about one third are delinquent, based on CMBS data). With e-commerce having taken a large chunk of market share, and social distancing reducing foot traffic, 2020 has seen a record number of store closures. Street-front retail will also suffer high vacancies and corresponding rent cuts, but should be a better-performing asset because it does not have the same tipping-point risk that malls bear once a certain volume of stores are vacant." "For failing malls, many of the most likely redevelopment options – conversion to residential or warehouses – could result in valuations falling 60-90% compared to preCOVID appraisals. While the land that has housed malls may offer better recovery values if used for mixed-use developments, historically that has only happened for about 15% of former malls (and those at a time when a very small number of malls required redevelopment at any moment)." "In Europe, the situation is less dire due to a relatively small per-capita retail footprint. So, while we expect some re-rating of rents, a large jump in malls that require redevelopment seems unlikely." "The bright spot is warehouses, where Amazon might need to triple its end-2019 footprint just to efficiently operate its current business. And of course, Amazon is only one of a multitude of e-commerce players. However, such growth is unlikely to provide a backstop for malls, due to issues around zoning and building suitability, a limited need for new warehouses compared to the amount of mall space that may need to be retired, and the lower average rents for warehouses compared to performing retail." "Stadiums have suffered revenue pressure due to the lack of sports, but should return (mostly) to normal after COVID. Some long-term changes may be necessary, but they should not change the general operating performance trends for the sector." [link] [comments]  |
| [Meta Thread] Re: "can the mods stop locking threads" Posted: 07 Oct 2020 09:04 AM PDT Okay, I've been out of pocket the last few days and got to this one late, since there wasn't a lot of actual mod opinion/representation in that thread I've removed it and I'm starting one where we can actually express our views/stance. The thread is here should you wish to access it. There's just no need for two meta threads in the same day, and the answer to the complaint is "no" anyway. I'm lifting this mostly from a comment I made there, but here's our general stance:
This probably won't be a popular opinion but this is both true and a new thing. I've made no secret that I don't like what Reddit has become. They have vastly expanded their cross sub algorithms, and Reddit as a whole has grown, given recent events this sub has seen an almost doubling in size over the last two years. I'm going to be direct because I'm not particularly worried about being popular here: the vast majority of the new subscribers are not investors, have very little interest in investing, and don't have any background in investing. This is painfully obvious in that joke threads, off topic comments, etc are constantly the top voted comments in any given large thread. So because they have no real interest in investing their comments tend to basically be the same as if they were in any given general news/politics/whatever subreddit. Think about how much of the discussion in /r/economics or /r/technology has to do with economics or technology. Is there a disconnect between the mod team and those users? sure. That's fine by me. If you want an investment community where the top comment on AAPL earnings thread is someone's comment about how they like their iphone because of imessage then yes, there is going to be a disconnect between this sub's moderation team and you. That isn't an /r/investing mod team problem, that is a subscriber issue. There seems to be this growing attitude on Reddit that subreddits are some democratic entity where users can override moderation if there's enough popularity. That is not an accurate representation of how a sub is run, and should that be the case it would just quickly turn in to "vaguely economic/public company related general discussion" and not "discussion on investing in capital markets and securities". This may be tough for some people to hear but as far as Reddit is structurally concerned a subreddit is an independent forum owned and controlled by it's moderators. So just to be clear: the policies in place, and the actions we take, are purposefully crafted to discourage people like the above from posting here. I'm a blunt person as many of you know, I won't beat around the bush here; one regular contributor that actually discusses investing is more important to us than 1,000 subscribers who don't like our policies. We are not catering to people who want to discuss anything they desire, and if they're upset by this then I apologize but there are other subreddits. This is a place dedicated to investment discussion, you don't need to be a professional, expert, whatever to post here. But you do need to discuss investing. This is an extremely low bar, but in many cases hat bar is not being met. Thread Locks: if an entire thread is just political bickering, or off topic discussion it's getting locked. We're not interested in micromanaging discussion, we are interested in just locking threads when people can't stay on topic. I personally think it's a bit ridiculous that people expect mods to babysit a thread rather than just lock it when people can't stay on topic. If people can't stay on topic that really tells us the thread probably isn't super relevant anyway. And simply removing comments on a 500+ comment thread on the front page, where we average 300,000 pageviews per day and 100,000 unique pageviews per day, is trying to plug the hoover dam with Spez's dick. It's an effort in futility. Politics: We used to discuss politics all the time, the choice to ban that was directly due to user behavior. At some point after 2018 commenting here shifted from investment relevant opinions to something that can only be described as a debate between the lead editors for Bretbart and Vox, but dumber. Compare these threads four years ago to this thread last year, both on the same exact subject. As you can plainly tell the older one is far more topic centric than the newer one. Point is this forum is for investment discussion. Politics and capital markets are certainly intertwined, but inevitably the new posters here are unable to discuss capital markets and just start talking about any given political opinion they have; then we get a thread indistinguishable from /r/politics. If an entire thread is discussing the market ramifications of political regimes/policy then it's welcome here, that hasn't been the case in almost any thread over the last two years. The 60 day bans for this sort of off topic behavior are deliberate in their length to encourage those people to find another subreddit to participate in. "I think Trump's proposal is bad for markets because of XYZ" is totally relevant, "I think Trump is a fat bad old man who hates minorities" is totally a non relevant comment. You may think it's true or false depending on which politics team you're on, but if you can't understand that it's irrelevant to investing then you shouldn't comment here. Our goal is fostering good investment discussion. The goal is not to be a platform for political soapboxing, airing out grievances about corporations, have broad general discussion, or whatever else people want to do here. That is not to say politics, corporate grievances, etc aren't important. They're not part of this subreddit's purpose. Our goals also have nothing to do with activity, subscribers, or views/whatever. The only thing we want is discussion that actually has to do with investing, and not whatever other subject people wish to try and relate back to investing. If that means a bunch of people not here to discuss investing get mad and unsubscribe then that's a win. To be frank many of our most knowledgeable regulars have stopped coming here because of the degradation in quality over the last two years. This is not a condition we are happy with nor one we'd want to support.
Mods make a sub. I think we're pretty open that we don't want a bunch of mods that want to make a sub that's just some lightly moderated general discussion outlet. We want mods to come from our pool of regular quality contributors, not someone who's interested in being a mod for mod's sake, and not someone who mods a dozen other places. The point is to have people in charge of something where they have vested interest in the quality of the sub. I would absolutely love to add another 30 mods tomorrow, I can't think of anyone who wants the job and is also a good candidate but feel free to shoot us a modmail if you think you fit the bill. I'd say this, if at least one of our existing mods doesn't recognize your username then it's probably gonna be a no. Here's the thing, if people don't like the rules then there are hundreds of other subreddits. There's dozens of subreddits for politics, you can go over to /r/economics to see what a sub looks like when the mods aren't worried about removing low effort political discussion, and if that's appealing to you then you can comment there. You can go to /r/latestagecapitalism or dozens of other subreddits if you just want to complain about public companies. You can go to your political subreddit of choice for political discussion. So again all of the new subscribers complaining about our efforts to remove those things don't really sway us, because we're not here for you and you have other outlets. So we're not preventing anyone from having any sort of discussion they want to have, we're saying this isn't the sub for it. And finally if you would like to go to a subreddit for general discussion of investing your money in to capital markets and securities then you can hang here. If ya want to talk shit about your least favorite corporation or politician then I think I speak for the entire mod team in saying we would prefer you went elsewhere. So TLDR: we have zero interest in creating a sub that allows for general off topic discussion, general political discussion, low effort political banter, or any of the other low effort joke/pun/anecdotes/whatever that you see across the majority of large subs. This sub doesn't need to be all things to all people, and we have no interest in allowing more off topic conversation just because new users want it. And if that means a sizeable portion of the subscribers, especially the more recent ones, are upset then that is a condition we are fine with. The bar for discussion here is not high, it's literally just "actually talk about investing", so any degree of blowback concerning anyone on our team's moderation is really met by a high degree of cynicism from me given how broad that guideline is. [link] [comments]  |
| Volkswagen in Norway is doing very well Posted: 07 Oct 2020 10:48 PM PDT Although I own a M3 and I'm not interested in the ID3, the business of Volkswagen is quite interesting, because Volkswagen has a good access to capital and has a huge dealership network. Norway is someone special, since citizens don't pay taxes on EV, which are quite substantial. Tesla's position in the market was unique, since there wasn't any serious competition for long range EV. Using a Nissan Leaf on a travel from Oslo to Trondheim (500km) meant to make enforced pauses for at least 2 hours, while a M3 LR needs one charge for max 20min. Btw. the price of the Leaf is in Norway on the level of a M3. The new ID.3 is changing the markets. The car is cheaper than a M3 and has similar capabilities. The sales statistics (look for the table) for September are promising. Volkswagen sold 2000 ID3, while Tesla sold 1100 even when the charger network for CCS2 is not that good, while Tesla owners have almost never to wait for a charger. The exception was Oslo at the start of the vacation time. The numbers are telling something about the strong position Volkswagen has in Europe. The ID.3 has a size which reminds people on the Golf, which was the most popular car format since the 1970s. With the coming ID.4 even the segment for larger cars is better covered. This is a good outlook for Volkswagen at least in Europe and gives the company the technological foundation for the future. My guess is, the markets for EV in the US and Europe will be quite different again, like in the past for combustion vehicles. Tesla is losing it's monopoly on long range (European version) and is enforced to adapt or vanish like Toyota from European markets. I like the M3 quite much, but the format of the car is not that popular and the Model S, has a pricing of the luxury segment. [link] [comments]  |
| Seems like day trading is not worth it. Posted: 07 Oct 2020 10:16 PM PDT In all the back tests I've done, it seems even if you find a strategy that works most of time with a high win rate it doesn't matter. There's too much variance just between months. Some months can generate a 40% draw down even if the average monthly gain is 10%. Furthermore, to even reach the rates of 10-20% returns on paper a month, requires hundreds of trades a month, and the commission, slippage, bid ask spread will eat away an otherwise profitable method. [link] [comments]  |
| Why is green energy rallying all of the sudden Posted: 07 Oct 2020 12:19 PM PDT Ive been keeping track of renewable energy stocks to invest soon but what has happened this past 2 weeks? All of the sudden there is a spark and some have grown upwards to 50% in half a month. I know this has been going for pretty much all year after the crash but what is make it grow this much so quixkly? Havent heard any news recently that would make people extra bullish on green energy. [link] [comments]  |
| Historical option prices on S&P500 Posted: 08 Oct 2020 02:41 AM PDT Does anybody know a ticker or place to find historical calls/puts that can be exported into excel? I am currently using yahoo finance to dump daily price data but not too sure what the ticker is for SPY calls? The reason I ask is for fun I like to backtest different strategy's against the SPY and finally found a strategy I want to try live. It's crossed my mind that if the strategy works that it is likely better to execute with calls rather than outright purchase stock since my holding period is like 1-3 days. Thanks for your help in advance. [link] [comments]  |
| LendingClub closing its core notes platform Posted: 07 Oct 2020 07:55 AM PDT This is a dramatic change in LendingClub's business. It is no longer going to be involved in peer-to-peer lending. It also eliminates another source of positive returns for investors. The company claims it will offer current investors on the platform preferential access to a new high-yield savings account, but the rate is unspecified and is unlikely to be anywhere near the 5-7% return offered through peer-to-peer lending. [link] [comments]  |
| Talk to me about Big Lots ($BIG) Posted: 07 Oct 2020 02:55 PM PDT A few interesting things I'm seeing in their financial statements: -Gross margins are strong and have little variation between then for the years 2011-2020. The company can make money in their sleep because what they do is profitable (closeout retail). Revenue growth is profitable and they have a large store foot print of 1,400+ stores. Usually in lower income areas and you can see this by the growth of shrink (inventory theft) as the company expands their store footprint. -SGA has grown faster than EBIT margins. EBIT margins have never been higher than SGA growth. So it's not a business issue but may be a corporate issue? -They've bought back an aggressive amount of stock over the past ten years. When you look at how fast the company has bought back stock and decided to pay a dividend as well it does give the first impression that management is very shareholder friendly. We do love buybacks and dividends. But they've reduced their shares outstanding at the expense of increasing their debt levels. Total liabilities have grown over 14% over the last ten years. Buybacks lower the cost of equity to a degree but now the company seems to be slowly growing more dependent on debt. -They've had some annoying accounting moments such as discontinued operations when KB Toys went bankrupt years ago. They also sold off a distribution center in CA last year and relocated it to Apple Valley, CA. That gain on sale was 53% of their 2020 EBIT. Pull that out and EBIT crashed hard in 2020. And even if you do leave that gain on sale in you have to ask yourself how they're going make that sale happen again. You can't sell the same building twice. -Management links executive performance bonuses to ROIC improvements. I get worried quickly when I see companies talk about ROIC because ROIC, like EBITDA, is a non-GAAP metric. When I read Southwest Airlines' 10-K (pre-2020) they included a calculation for ROIC there that the company uses. At best I just ignore it and see it as pandering to shareholders because we care about ROIC growth. At worst I think it's the company trying to tie themselves to more non-GAAP metrics for compensation. Non-GAAP metrics that can stuffed. -Adjust for buybacks (I did this by looking through the footnotes to find the amount of shares they bought back and added it back to their outstanding share count for the year in question, and adding back the cash spent on buybacks to shareholders equity). And the capital base has grown faster than EPS and FCF. FCF also has to be adjusted a bit because of how their CFFI section handled acquisitions in the past and PPE sales as well. So what I ended up doing was CFFO-capex+PPE sales-acquisitions. Then I calculated just CFFO-capex-acquisitions. Pick either FCF calculation and the capital base has still grown faster than that. -DSI (calculated as ending inventory divided by cost of goods sold multiplied by 365 days as I was using the 10-K documents for all of this) has grown from 51 days in 2011 to 63 days in 2020. It was at 67 days in 2019. Now this may be justifiable because they make a lot of their money from furniture and home decor sales and there's only so many buyers that go to Big Lots that can afford furniture on a predictable basis. But this growth has me worried that they don't know how to manage inventories properly. 2020 isn't going to help that either because their buying base more than likely lacks cash to decorate their homes. So what can they do if their debt load continues to grow in light of potential closures occurring again? Debt will grow (leases and accrued expenses especially) but smaller revenues so will they do consignment sales to get inventory down? Will they cut prices at their stores? Will they do a capital raise and dilute shareholders even more? I don't know and that's what makes this difficult. -Management: Bruce Thorn, the former CEO of Tailored Brands, left TB to go to Big Lots. Now I'm not going to act as though Tailored Brands going into bankruptcy was all on him. That's not fair of anyone to say since nobody could predict COVID or Amazon having taken over almost all of the retail world. But I do have to take note that he probably saw a lot of the issues Tailored Brands have and was unable to stop them, leading to their ultimate bankruptcy. I can't just ignore that. Those are my thoughts. What are yours? [link] [comments]  |
| SPACs (2020) vs Reverse Mergers (2010-2012) - Any frauds concerns? Posted: 07 Oct 2020 06:39 PM PDT What's the difference between the current SPAC craze and all of the reverse mergers from the early part of the decade? Is there even a difference?
With hindsight, we now know there was quite a lot of shady stuff happening with many of those reverse mergers, and I wonder if this is just the cycle repeating.
I did lose money in some of those reverse mergers years old, so if this helps even one person avoid an unnecessary loss on a fraudulent SPAC, I'll be glad I posted this noob question. [link] [comments]  |
| Anti trust probe against AMZN, APPL, GOOG, FB Posted: 07 Oct 2020 04:29 PM PDT I haven't seen much discussion here around the ongoing anti trust probe against these top tech companies. I'm sure many of us are heavily invested in these companies. Do you feel they will be broken up anytime soon? Don't see MSFT on this list so could it be a safe bet right now? TIA. [link] [comments]  |
| $AAPL - Needham says House Report on Antitrust should not impact Apple Posted: 07 Oct 2020 08:35 AM PDT Needham: "Yesterday, the House subcommittee on Antitrust released a 450-page report outlining anticompetitive threats posed by AAPL, AMZN, FB and GOOGL. Our key take-aways from the 45 AAPL pages include: a) dozens of complaints about AAPL (out of the 20mm app developers and 1.8mm apps in AAPL's App Store), with zero positives about AAPL's value to consumers or lifeimproving innovations; b) underscores AAPL's strong shareholder value proposition and finds fault with widely used business practices such as bundling; and c) most complaints about AAPL are biz judgments (they charge too much, they pre-load their apps, etc), and not easily fixable through regulation. Finally, because AAPL's core asset is access to nearly 1B of the wealthiest consumers, we do not expect this report to materially impact valuation." "Relating to key issues raised by the House report about AAPL, regulatory experts at Technology Policy Institute (TPI) believe:
"In the next section of this report, we include the full "Apple" section (excluding footnotes) from pages 331 to 377 of the House report. The bold and underlined emphasis below is ours." [link] [comments]  |
| 1 Bloomberg: How ‘Animal Crossing’ Is Preparing Players to Trade Stocks Posted: 07 Oct 2020 01:26 PM PDT The sentiment goes from naive to terrifying "Now I'm like, 'I'm going to drop a thousand dollars on this random stock,'" she said. "It doesn't feel like it's real money. I'm not emotionally attached to my money because I started off from a video game." This is why you need healthy corrections, otherwise people learn bad lessons until the rug is pulled under them on leverage [link] [comments]  |
| How much did it crash the house market in 2008? Posted: 08 Oct 2020 03:13 AM PDT How much did it crash the house market in 2008? https://i.ibb.co/5r28cYN/goldhouse.png As you can see here I have uploaded the image of the Gold / house ratio and it shows that gold is undervalued if compared to house market But the question is another one: how (in %) did the house market crash during the 2008 crash? I can't see no graphs on line [link] [comments]  |
| What do you think about the Sterling Trader Pro Platform? Posted: 08 Oct 2020 02:33 AM PDT Hi guys, I have practiced for a while in the WT (can't spell it out in here, but I guess most of you know what who I am talking about here) Sterling Trader Pro Simulator and am planning to make the move to a real broker soon. Influenced by WT's suggestions I first got a demo for the Lightspeed Trader and then DAS Trader. I just cannot get used to these platforms. It might just be because I have been using Sterling Trader every day for 3 months now, but it feels a lot more intuitive to me, the graphs are a lot cleaner and it just doesn't have a lot of the stuff that, especially Lightspeed Trader, distracts me with (and which I would never use). So now I am thinking about actually getting started with a Broker like Lightspeed, Cobra Trading, ... and get access to the Sterling Trader Pro Platform. I know that the software fee is comparably high, but what are 200$ if you can be a lot more successful on this platform, right? I just wanted to hear some opinions about the platform from people that have been trading via Sterling Trader Pro in the real market. How do you like it? How is the execution like? How is the support? Did you ever encounter any serious problems with the platform? Thanks a lot in advance guys! [link] [comments]  |
| Wait till INRG (ICLN) drops a bit or just dump back in? Posted: 07 Oct 2020 03:56 PM PDT Bought INRG a couple months ago along with my individual stocks but because of the recent events and especially this month I've just been seeing more and more volatility which made me want to minimise my losses as much as I can (basically trying to time the market). But I've decided this is too much stress and wasn't my original plan anyway. I currently have my INRG in cash & now that I've finally done some more basic DD & narrowed down what individual stocks I truly see growth in I was about to just dump it back in and delete the app but now its just going off the rails and hasn't come down in a while. Do I wait for a correction or just put it back? For context, INRG is about 30% of my portfolo &I plan to be a long term investor (10+ years) so should I just not care about the current price ? [link] [comments]  |
| Something change with French companies' names? "Total S.A." is now "Total SE". Posted: 07 Oct 2020 03:43 PM PDT I've held shares of TOT for decades, and their name was always listed as "Total S.A.", where the abbreviation stands for "Société Anonyme" -- roughly equivalent to Inc or LLC. Recently, Y! displays the stock name as TOTAL SE -- no periods, either. Anybody know, "What's Up With That"?? Is it all French companies? I don't know another one to check against. [link] [comments]  |
| Have we seen anything like Tesla stock before, and if so how did it end? Posted: 07 Oct 2020 12:38 PM PDT Well, the question is fairly simple. I'm not planning on buying any Tesla stock but I do own a bit of NIO and XPEV which their prices are very strongly correlated to Tesla's. So at this point, I'm just wondering if we will see something similar to what happened to bitcoin. Are there any other stocks that had this kind of growth and didn't end up bursting? EDIT: Okay maybe I shouldn't have compared it to Bitcoin since they are very different things, it's just that the hype feels similar, especially when looking at Tesla's financials and ratios. Maybe there were a few stocks that went through something similar in the dot com bubble? [link] [comments]  |
| Europe sources of battery materials Posted: 07 Oct 2020 09:49 PM PDT I want to long some European resources of lithium, nickel, and iron, from mines to refineries. What would be some tickers to look at? I've found a bit of difficulty figuring this out, as the first couple of sources I've found are listed aren't listed on the US exchanges that I can access. [link] [comments]  |
| Is solar the next safe harbor? Posted: 07 Oct 2020 10:42 AM PDT The future looks bright for Solar. SUNW is up 44% today after a killer earnings call. SOL, SPWR, FSLR, ENPH, SEDG, BEEM, SPI, VSLR, RUN, SWKS all post gains and outperform major indices. But not just today. The 1m charts for all of these stocks are unbelievable. Too good to be true perhaps. Is solar the next safe harbor? Solar is benefiting from technical advances. Both residential and business adoption rates are up. Still the gains seem too good. I think solar is the next Cinderella sector benefiting from retail investor popularity. [link] [comments]  |
| Better to invest in successful cloud companies or cloud ETFs? Posted: 07 Oct 2020 01:50 PM PDT Having an internal debate in my head about what direction to take my portfolio. Investopedia talks about how picking sector ETFs with a low dispersion from the mean (I.e. Consumer Staples) is a wiser move, rather than investing in sector ETFs with potentially only a few big winners and thus a higher dispersion from the mean. What do you all prefer? Investing in companies like Datadog, Twilio, Wix or investing in ETFs like WCLD (which holds a % of cloud computing companies)? If you're a long term investor and you believe cloud computing is the future, would you prefer to do DD and pick a couple winners, or do you think it's smarter to invest in a cloud ETF? [link] [comments]  |
| Risk of Business Insolvency during Coronavirus Crisis Posted: 07 Oct 2020 03:53 PM PDT Currently, 95% of total outstanding corporate debt has been incurred by firms with less than 30% probability of insolvency, despite the historically high levels of nonfinancial business leverage. This suggests that the vast majority of corporate debt does not appear to be at risk of default in the near term. Nevertheless, the right tail of a default probability distribution—that is, those companies with the highest probabilities of becoming insolvent—looks different compared with that of 2008. Figure 3 shows the amount of total liabilities, grouped by probability of insolvency buckets that are greater than 30%. Total liabilities with greater than 70% probability of insolvency currently stand at $40.5 billion, valued in 2008 dollars. This is a substantial increase over the past, more than two times the 2008 level. Based on our distance-to-default analysis, the COVID-19 shock has significantly increased the insolvency risk for nonfinancial businesses, despite the massive fiscal stimulus and a number of Federal Reserve credit facilities. While the insolvency risk looks broadly similar to the peak of the global financial crisis, businesses entered the pandemic already having very high leverage, and they have since further increased those debt levels. Currently, the vast majority of outstanding corporate debts are incurred by firms with a low probability of insolvency, despite the historically high business leverage. Nevertheless, those firms with elevated risk of insolvency account for a sizable amount of outstanding liabilities totaling $40.5 billion in 2008 dollars, which is more than two times higher than at the peak of the global financial crisis. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Oct 2020 11:19 AM PDT So I am a Canadian but we all know the growth is in American Markets. I have heard almost from every conservative investing source that you are suppose to do around 70% in VTI and 30% in VXUS. That way you have exposure to the broad US market, low management expense ratio - exposure to the international market players incase the US is ever stagnant like Japan, decent management expense ratio. I personally also like the idea of maybe 5% in SLV and 5% in GLD when they go to lows and then waiting for highs. However I know a lot of you know incredibly detail on the various ETFs and strategies and I am wondering how you all look at it and why. Additionally as a side question and one I have never been able to understand.. Why in the world is SPY the most traded S&P 500 tracking ETF. I don't understand why it is so big for options and day trading compared to VOO or IVV or something. Anyone actually know about this? Someone said it was the first one to come around and historically has built the largest following for being first out of the gate but I am not sure that stands up to modern reasoning. I look forward to hearing all your opinions :) [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Oct 2020 04:59 PM PDT I personally don't really care about their opinions seeing as I don't follow it and have made a huge return on my portfolio. I want to know other people's opinion on them, and also have heard people saying MF is terrible so thought I'd ask about the next most common investing website I see. Thanks everyone, I'm looking forward to chatting!:) [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Oct 2020 09:08 AM PDT (hope this doesnt violate rule 2) Hi all, Recently got in to trading in May and have had excellent success once I embraced technical analysis (fundamentalists need not comment) I correctly predicted PTON's sky rocket early in my research and have ridden it to a nearly 200% return. Could have been 300% if I didn't get wrapped up in the Apple split, again fundamentals never fail to fail me. Needless to say, I have been very interested in trading since my breakout into this study. I have read books on the topic faster than any other field I've researched. It's not much, but as of yesterday with the dummy's guide to options, I have finished, annotated, and took notes on 6 books since april, which for me, a guy who reads maybe a book a year, is legendary. I am consuming and digesting everything I can on this topic and I do not want to kill my momentum. I keep going back to the first book I read on the topic though, Stan Weinstein's Secrets for profiting in Bull and Bear Markets. I have read it cover to cover twice, and probably a third between rereading chapters, annotating, etc. I find his insight the perfect balance of simple yet valuable, shining light on tactics and techniques useful to all kinds of investors in all kinds of markets and time scales. It was Stan who taught me to resist my urge to look at earning reports and news articles. It was SPBnBM chapter 5 "uncovering exceptional winners" that helped me find PTON and multiple other gems I think will turn out splendid. The big problem is that SPBnBM is fucking old. Really old. 1988 old. If I read the words Mansfield chart or "make sure to call your broker" one more time I might end it all. The book is from a time where the great bear market of '86 was the boogie man and a closing price of 160 was real high roller. While it is relatively easy to sift through all the outdated bologna and get some real value out of it, times have seriously changed. My ideal book would be Stan Weinstein's SPBnBM II: Electric Boogaloo published in October 2020, updated with new graphs, indicators, techniques and tactics for the versatile trader. But I don't think that book exists. I'm left with various trading gurus trying to shill their private programs and portfolios looking to capitalize on sheep looking for a hearder. Stan's book taught me to use and trust the technical tools he gave me, but still emphasized the role of the individual trader in applying these tools. I have yet to find an author like that. Tldr: Secrets for profiting in Bull and Bear Markets 2? Does something like that exist? Any other Weinstein fans who have found an author like him? Anything at all? Bonus questions: Thanks yall, hope to hear from you soon. [link] [comments]  |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Lose money with friends!. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
No comments:
Post a Comment