Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Barclays says the end of the city is an urban myth
- ICLN prints money daily
- Kevin Rudd on China after the US election
- What are the sources to learn about trading/stock investing?
- Honest opinion on NIO?
- Vedanta (VEDL) ADR / ADS Delisting?
- Can JKHY still be bullish?
- Need to decide if I should switch from Options to RSU
- Hearing on Twitter shareholder lawsuit on privacy delayed until Nov 10
- Clarification on valuation
- Today's Top News
- Advice to a young "invester"?
- Opinions on the upcoming AirBnB IPO
- Buy&Hold vs Trend Following in Crypto
- Buy T-Bonds Instead Of "Keeping Cash On The Sidelines"
- AMCX Shorts - Whats your play?
- My intro to investing
- Thinking of buying PRU and ABBV for growth dividend stocks.
- active investmemts
- Why I believe Lemonade (LMND) has a clear path towards a 10X+ valuation.
- What are some COVID safe sectors
- Long on oil Companies and what you can learn from my mistakes
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 05 Oct 2020 05:17 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Barclays says the end of the city is an urban myth Posted: 05 Oct 2020 08:23 AM PDT "Property prices have risen across the US during the pandemic and, contrary to popular perception, they have risen in each of rural, suburban, AND urban areas. Despite widely reported speculation about a collapse in demand for urban living (likely spurred by the outsized attention given to New York City and San Francisco), our data suggests that people left urban areas, but at a more modest pace than media reports might suggest." "COVID-19 has not caused people's housing preferences to permanently shift away from the amenities of urban living. Density aversion is leading to some declines in the biggest cities. But price changes during COVID-19 suggest that people are still willing to pay for urban amenities, placing value on access to restaurants, bars, and cultural institutions found in denser cities – they will just need to find places where they are less impaired by social distancing rules." "We do see more risk of cities underperforming suburbs, a contrast to many years when home price increases in urban areas significantly outpaced those in suburban or rural areas. While prices are likely to rise all over, urban areas are at risk of losing their long stretch of outperformance over suburbs. More working from home (WFH) in the future, risks around COVID-related closures of urban amenities, and potentially lingering aversion to density are likely to give the suburbs a relative edge in the future, even as both places rise in absolute terms. This could create an incremental demand bump of up to 500,000 new housing units in the US if up to 2% of people permanently relocate out of urban areas." "Of the biggest cities in the US, only New York and San Francisco have seen average price declines during the pandemic. Most urban areas in the US have benefitted from the same pent-up demand and increase in affordability that has lifted suburbs. And while we would not dismiss the tail risk of a self-reinforcing cycle of falling home prices for New York City or San Francisco, it remains a tail." "We expect the trend of rising home prices in both cities and suburbs to persist even after the pandemic ends, because affordability has improved and should remain elevated for some time. The collapse in long-term interest rates made mortgages more affordable at the same time that household savings soared as a result of lockdowns and government largesse. Moreover, millennials have reached their peak marriage years, so are entering their peak years for home buying. These should provide a tailwind for both suburban and urban properties." "Multifamily rentals are the most challenged corner of the residential market, with rents at risk due to a potentially "K-shaped" recovery (where higher income workers experience a rebound, but lower income worker remain strained). If lower-wage jobs take a long time to reappear, or don't reappear at all in the places they were before, rents could take a material hit." "In contrast, Single-Family Rental (SFR) appears poised to benefit from the same economic recovery. SFR customers have similar wealth to home buyers, so they are less likely to face the pressures of multi-family assets. And because their assets gain in value as home prices rise, they should perform well in a general regime of rising prices." "In the UK, trends have been similar to the US, but with perhaps a relatively bigger shift of interest to the suburbs. The risks are slightly different, however, as housing assets are more exposed to government policy shifts." "In China, there is a growing desire for better housing and better living conditions after COVID-19. Flexible work arrangement and hygiene awareness have caused local residents to look for better housing, more bedrooms, and second homes." "Student enrollment is falling in the US, creating a risk for security-backed student housing. However, initial trends are promising and moves to reduce density could offset any reductions in enrollment. In the UK, enrollment trends are the opposite – rising as is typical of recessions." [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 05 Oct 2020 05:24 PM PDT ICLN is a clean energy ETF. It stays flat during the day, but during after hours it shoots up 2%. During pre market, it shoots up 2% again. Every. Single. day. Its literally free money. I am 100% invested into ICLN shares. Positions: 2800 shares of ICLN [link] [comments]  |
| Kevin Rudd on China after the US election Posted: 05 Oct 2020 04:20 PM PDT This is interesting and could effect trading decisions after the Nov US Elections. Background: Kevin Rudd was PM in Australia a number of years back, he is today the President of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York. He is also fluent in Mandarin, which is important for anyone interpreting events in China esp since as PM he dealt with them first hand. He was recently interviewed (by ZHedge but dont hold that against this post). If he is right, this will be impacting on trade decisions, esp tech, after the US election. Some relevant quotes below from Mr Rudd... "Had Hillary Clinton won in 2016, her response would have been very robust. Trump has for the most part been superficially robust, principally on trade and technology. He was only triggered into more comprehensive robustness by the Covid-19 crisis threatening his reelection. If the next President of the U.S. is a Democrat, my judgement would be that the new Administration will be equally but more systematically hard-line in their reaction to China." "The current conflict between the U.S. and China on the other hand is characterised by two things: One, an economic decoupling in areas such as trade, supply chains, foreign direct investment, capital markets, technology, and talent. At the same time, it is also an increasingly sharp ideological war on values. The Chinese authoritarian capitalist model has asserted itself beyond China and challenges America." "Whoever wins the election, America will resolve in decoupling in a number of defined areas. - First and foremost in those global supply chains where the products are of too crucial importance to the U.S. to depend on Chinese supply. Think medical supplies or pharmaceuticals. - The second area is in defined critical technologies. The Splinternet is not just a term, it's becoming a reality. - Thirdly, you will see a partial decoupling on the global supply of semiconductors to China. Not just those relevant to 5G and Artificial Intelligence, but semiconductors in general. The centrality of microchips to computing power for all purposes, and the spectrum of application in the civilian and military economy is huge. - Fourth, I think foreign direct investment in both directions will shrink to zero. - The fifth area of decoupling is happening in talent markets. The hostility towards Chinese students in the U.S. is reaching ridiculous proportions." "Despite their acts to buy, borrow or steal intellectual property, they constantly remain three to seven years behind the U.S., Taiwan and South Korea, i.e. behind the likes of Intel, TSMC and Samsung. It's obviously hard to reverse engineer semiconductors" "There is an argument that 50% of the profits of the US semiconductor industry come from their clients in China. That money funds their R&D in order to keep three to seven years ahead of China. The U.S. Department of Defense knows that, what's why the Pentagon doesn't necessarily side with the anti China hawks on this issue." "Financial market collaboration between the Chinese and American financial systems in terms of investment flows for Treasuries, bonds and equities is a $5 trillion per year business. This is not small. I presume the reason we have only seen two rather small warning shots so far is that the Administration is deeply sensitive to Wall Street interests, led by Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin. Make no mistake: Given the serious Dollars at stake in financial markets, an escalation there will make the trade war look like child's play." " There are three things that China still fears about America. The US military, its semiconductor industry, and the Dollar." "American political elites, Republicans and Democrats, have concluded that Xi Jinping's China is not a status quo power, but that it wishes to replace the U.S. in its position of global leadership." Q: Do you really see the danger of a hot war? "I don't mean to be alarmist, not at all. But I was talking to too many people both in Washington and Beijing that were engaged in scenario planning, to believe that this was any longer just theoretical. My simple thesis is this: These things can happen pretty easily once you have whipped up nationalist narratives on both sides and then have a major incident that goes wrong. A conflict is easy to start, but history tells us they are bloody hard to stop." (I would also encourage anyone interested in the dynamics to watch the John Pilger "A Coming War On China" video which is long and a bit bloated but reveals the pressure China us under from the US Military with nukes surrounding their country and gunships in their waters ready to block off trade on a whim). EDIT: Not sure if I can post ZHedge links so if you want the full interview search the title of the article on ZH - "China Still Fears Three Things About America. The Dollar Is One Of Them" [link] [comments]  |
| What are the sources to learn about trading/stock investing? Posted: 05 Oct 2020 10:53 PM PDT Hello everyone, I have been trying to learn and gather some knowledge on trading/investing through the internet but there is no definitive resource where I can learn from. Is there any resource or a crash course that gives much deeper insights on how to invest money? I happen to get this suggestion a lot from peers that I should read "The intelligent investor". But it seems like a pretty difficult reading for amateurs like me. Need help! Thank you. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 05 Oct 2020 12:41 PM PDT Hi all, Considering buying a few hundred shares of nio - Purely speculative based off the fact tesla seems like It wont last very long in china... Does anyone have any solid reason they think its a good/bad buy? reasons please? Im under the assumption that we are currently in an EV boom, already have a lot in TESLA but would like to diversify a tad thanks [link] [comments]  |
| Vedanta (VEDL) ADR / ADS Delisting? Posted: 05 Oct 2020 07:59 PM PDT Hello Investing gurus, Over the years, I had invested in VEDL, which is an ADR (American Depository) listed in NYSE. The company is an Indian company (Vedanta, listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange) that is in the process of getting delisted and they have started the Reverse Book Building process today. I'm trying to understand the implications of the delisting for VEDL listed on NYSE and the options I have. I'm based in US and don't have a trading / Demat account in India. Information for Vedanta ADS/ADS delisting process is scanty, though, while doing some digging, I did find section 20-21.13 in their SEC filing. Honestly, the parlance isn't the easiest to understand, and I'm wondering if someone who speaks that SEC dialect or has interest in VEDL has an ELI5 version. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 05 Oct 2020 08:29 PM PDT Should I hold 4-5 shares of JKHY for a couple years? I have a small portfolio and I am not looking for aggressive growth. Also let me know on what you think about their stock. JKHY has had a huge run the past 30 years. But can it last a few more at the same momentum? Will there be huge sell off soon? I have no clue and Im trying to get my sanity back from Wall Street Bets. [link] [comments]  |
| Need to decide if I should switch from Options to RSU Posted: 06 Oct 2020 03:28 AM PDT The fintech I have options at is giving the chance doe a one time switch to RSU with some conditions: Loose 45% by switching from stock to RSU however will need to wait for 2 years to avoid paying extra taxes. I can switch part of each grant if I want or stay with the all as options or s The current evaluation is $11-$12 an option (seems like it was ~8$ 3 years ago) Grant1: 7000 option fully vested with the exercise price of 2.8$ (Issue date 4.5 years ago) Grant2: 2000 option 50% vested at 3.31$ (Issue date 4.5 years ago) I do not plan on leaving the company any time soon however there are no directly visible plans for an IPO any time soon. What is the best course of action here considering I believe in the company but if I have to purchase the option in 2 years that will be a big chunk of my savings? [link] [comments]  |
| Hearing on Twitter shareholder lawsuit on privacy delayed until Nov 10 Posted: 06 Oct 2020 01:26 AM PDT https://apps.cand.uscourts.gov/CEO/cfd.aspx?7145 Looks like the hearing for motion to dismiss on privacy in "4:19-cv-07149-YGR - IN RE TWITTER, INC. SECURITIES LITIGATION" has been delayed until Nov 10. https://courtlistener.com/docket/16398789/in-re-twitter-inc-securities-litigation/ Anyone has the " Opposition/Response to Motion" or "Reply to Opposition/Response"? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 Oct 2020 01:10 AM PDT I read that one method in valuing a company is to find the sum total of all its future profits discounted back to the present day. Does this mean that if hypothetically we knew the exact revenue a particular company will ever make, its present day price should steadily decline, as we approach its death? Do we assume that the present day price is the market's valuation of all its future profits, and accounting for risk? Therefore, are rises in an index the result of us believing businesses are becoming more profitable, rather than the actual present day values of those companies changing? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 05 Oct 2020 07:38 AM PDT GOOG - Alphabet, Inc.
AAPL - Apple, Inc.
MSFT - Microsoft Corp.
UBER - Uber Technologies, Inc.
INFY - Infosys Ltd.
MYOK - MyoKardia, Inc.
TSLA - Tesla, Inc.
BMY - Bristol Myers Squibb Co.
CAT - Caterpillar, Inc.
BABA - Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
IBM - International Business Machines Corp.
RMG - RMG Acquisition Corp.
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| Posted: 05 Oct 2020 10:40 PM PDT hi all, as you may tell from recent posts of mine, i'm kinda young to be investing, but i'm trying my hand at picking some that i think will be long term winners. i have close to 2k invested at 16 years of age, mostly in renewables such as ENPH . i would go for the more expensive yet reliable stocks( like AAPL or MSFT , but dont really have the money to build up a position. my biggest holding is ICLN, with 100 shares bought (at 16 a share) , and its done well so far. probably want to buy more, but its at 19 now and might dip again. given the fact that renewable energy is the future and its looking like biden will win the election, isn't it almost a certainty that ICLN will do well the next few years? what are the risks of just parking your money there? again, i'm 16 and stupid, so do give me any advice you think will be useful. while looking at how your positions doing is addicting, (at least its not a hentai addiction) i want to make it clear i am just trying to learn about the stock market and get in relatively early, not swing trading or day trading or crap like that, cause i am still a kid, and have school, and a bit of a social life and regular interests. APOLOGIES I AM RAMBLING general advice about either ICLN or long term investing would be appreciated greatly!! should i keep buying more every few months or diversify a bit into other sectors? [link] [comments]  |
| Opinions on the upcoming AirBnB IPO Posted: 05 Oct 2020 03:08 PM PDT Obviously, it's a lot of speculation right now since we won't see a lot of their financials till November or later, but curious what others think about this company. I know there's been talking about other's experiences with Airbnb, but would like input on how others perceive them compared to other businesses and if their business model is sustainable long-term. With the travel industry as a whole taking a big hit, it'd seem like many companies with low margins won't be able to maintain growth, at least in the foreseeable future. With Airbnb now favoring rental properties without long-term contracts and a balanced alternative to hotels/hostels, does this have a good shot at being a winning stock for early investors? [link] [comments]  |
| Buy&Hold vs Trend Following in Crypto Posted: 05 Oct 2020 09:29 AM PDT There's a huge amount of people in Crypto who think that Buy&Hold is the best strategy. That might be true (especially when effort vs results are considered) for more mature markets, but I felt that in Crypto, simple Trend Following should be able to catch the bulk of the big moves and avoid most of the bear markets, so I ran some tests. StrategiesI picked some of the most basic Trend Following strategies with reasonable/round parameters:
Testing setup
Coins and date ranges usedI will use 25 of the ~TOP50 coins and 3 different date ranges. Specific coins for each date range depend on data availability. Some will use partial range data (starting later), specified in parentheses. Jan 2017 — July 2020 Jan 2018 — July 2020 Jan 2019 — July 2020 ResultsHere are the results, AVG profits over all tested assets. Conclusion
[link] [comments]  |
| Buy T-Bonds Instead Of "Keeping Cash On The Sidelines" Posted: 05 Oct 2020 09:43 PM PDT Having an emergency fund is always vital. Being able to cover short term emergencies without force selling assets is a must especially in a market downturn. But given that you have an emergency fund in place, why do people hoard cash? Say for example you have 100k portfolio invested into equities and we are in a raging bull market. (Let's pretend this is 2015-2019). If you begin to fear an upcoming recession, you can starting selling some of your equities and buying treasury bonds. BUT here's the key to my question....those who do own treasuries and equities in a portfolio, why would you keep any cash at all? Long term treasury bonds have basically ALWAYS gone up in price in recessions due to high demand and falling interest rates. (This includes the great depression, the great recession, as well as in 2020) They are seen as a safe haven investment and rise dramatically in market downfalls. So I hear people say things like "I have 50k invested but I also have 20k in cash waiting on the sidelines". What's the point of this? Why not wait and sell for massive gains when the market crashes and get paid interest while you wait? TLDR: TLT, EDV, and VGLT or some long term treasury ETFs that I like. So in normal conditions when interest rates and above 0% and we are in a normal bull market, why would anyone ever hold cash? Hold the bonds and sell for gains when the market crashes and then buy back into equities at rock bottom prices. Am I missing something??? "Cash is trash" [link] [comments]  |
| AMCX Shorts - Whats your play? Posted: 05 Oct 2020 04:40 PM PDT I'm long on AMCX, in at ~$23. I think they have a strong brand and good growth in direct streaming services to offset cable subscriber losses. In any case, the stock is heavily shorted (around 9M shares of 40.5M outstanding). AMCX recently announced a Dutch Auction tender offer to buy back $250M in shares. The market cap, as of closing today was $960M. So they are buying back around 20-25% of the stock (depending on auction price and assuming people tender enough shares). Since AMCX announced the tender offer the short interest has actually increased to over 10M shares. Putting aside rumors of going private and acquisitions, the company has $880M in cash and TTM EPS of $3.46. If they successfully buy back, call it 10M shares for simplicity's sake, and the stock just sits at the current levels we are talking about a company that now has an EPS of $4.60 and a PE of just over 5. Barring a complete collapse of the company how does anyone feel comfortable holding a short position right now? I don't see the short play here. Are shorts hoping they won't find $250M worth of shares to buy back? That doesn't seem like a winning play and will just force them to buy back on the open market, which won't bode well for shorts. Any shorts out there that are willing to share thoughts on this? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 05 Oct 2020 11:24 PM PDT I'm new to this and could use some advice. I have a 401k through my work which I put 14% of my check into but I have to play some stocks/ETFs/mutual funds if I really want to retire with anything. This led me to my new e trade account which I'm starting off with $1000. I know it's not exactly wise to throw all your eggs into one basket, but it's only $1000 so the risk is worth the reward to me and I've considered starting off my portfolio with just one company. With that being said, are there any companies you guys would favor? I'm currently considering Sunrun (RUN), Plug Power (PLUG), Vale (VALE), Apple (AAPL), Abbott (ABT), Chewy (CHWY), Sony (SNE), and Walmart (WMT), just to name a few. I'd like to have a diversified portfolio of about 5 or so companies but just want to start off with one right now so I can amass some shares and when I'm ready branch out. The cannabis market is really intriguing to me as well since we've barely tapped into it. I should note that I'm also creating a Roth which I'm going to set up with a blue chip fund (TRBCX) along with a couple other mutual funds. My goal is to create revenue off the stocks on e trade so I can invest into my Roth. However I'm also unsure whether I should throw a clean energy ETF such as (PBW) or tech ETF such as (VEGN) in my Roth or e trade. It would nice to be growing dividends as well but I'm not sure whether it's best to do that in e trade or my Roth. If anyone has some input on this it would be great. Even if it's just books to read anything would be appreciated. I'm trying to plan for my future and I'm hoping to make 35K by the end of next year or at least as close to it as possible. Thanks for taking the time to read this and best of luck to everyone. [link] [comments]  |
| Thinking of buying PRU and ABBV for growth dividend stocks. Posted: 05 Oct 2020 11:54 AM PDT I'm 21 and have some cash to put into more stocks. I think both of these choices are very undervalued with potential massive growth. Sure interest rates are low right now, but PRU has an amazing financial statement, 7% annual growth and great dividend growth. ABBV has a huge potential with revenue growth over the next few years with their purchase of Allergan and a bunch of new products coming out in 2021. Any other suggestions would be great I'm already invested in PENN, DIS, INSG, and KTOS which have all shown growth since investment pre-covid other than DIS. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 05 Oct 2020 06:59 PM PDT I know this is a taboo subject, but does anyone own active mutual funds and if so what funds are you in and why? I was thinking about allocating some assets in active funds in my roth IRA. Specifically, I was looking at the fidelity blue chip growth fund. [link] [comments]  |
| Why I believe Lemonade (LMND) has a clear path towards a 10X+ valuation. Posted: 05 Oct 2020 04:24 PM PDT Core Advantages. Why their product is superior.
Business Model (how they make money) Lemonade currently sells Home & Renters insurance policies as well as pet insurance. They collect 25% of premiums as profit. The remaining 75% are set aside for customers and any unclaimed profit goes to a charity of the customer's choice. At first I thought the social good aspect of the company was a negative point, but after hearing the CEO's reasoning of their business model this brilliantly serves the business-customer relationship in two ways:
Current growth rate They've had a 120% yoy growth rate in revenue since 2018. Their gross loss ratio has decreased by 18% YoY. Currently they have plans to expand operations to Europe and they just launched a new insurance policy for pet owners. Current market cap vs future potential market cap Lemonade currently has a market cap of 3 billion compared to current well known insurance companies such as All State (30 billion) and progressive (60 billion). The current market value of the insurance industry is 4.1 trillion dollars with no one insurance company making up more than 4% of the entire market. Thus they can potentially 10-20x+ in value if they succeed, and especially if they expand to selling other types of insurance products, given that their operating expenses per customer are a fraction of other insurance companies. Is their ceo exceptional? Daniel Schreiber graduated from Kings College which is a top 10 college in the UK. He has 20+ years of entrepreneurial experience leading tech companies albeit little with the insurance industry. He has said he built Lemonade from "first principles", building the company from the ground up, which has resulted in an insurance company that is different from traditional insurance companies. Lastly I've watched several interviews of the CEO. And his level of clarity and simplicity in explaining his business model, and his long term vision for the company, in my opinion is on a similar level to Jeff Bezos and Satya Nadella. A comparison with competition.
To give an example, in the 90s Walmart believed that they could simply replicate a website like Amazon if the internet ever takes off. But as people who work in software know, websites such as Amazon.com deceptively hides how tremendously complex it is to maintain the infrastructure and software behind it. The work culture and the way Amazon is structured as an organization is so profoundly different from traditional retail companies that it has taken Walmart 30+ years to finally launch Walmart+ and it's still not of the same quality as Amazon's website. Conclusion (TLDR)
Overall I believe this company has a decent chance of reaching a 10x valuation in 5-10 year period. There is a risk that they'll fail or another company will disrupt the insurance industry in their stead. But I believe this is a good asymmetric risk/reward opportunity. [link] [comments]  |
| What are some COVID safe sectors Posted: 05 Oct 2020 03:24 PM PDT I know that stocks like Zoom (ZM) have exploded since the pandemic https://trend-scanner.com/2020/09/30/winning-4-sectors-and-stocks-covid-19/ But are there stocks that seem not to have been affected by the COVID-19? I have a longtime favorite stock that I thought would be untouchable (SCI) but they went DOWN! And they do funeral services and products. They're practically a monopoly and they were affect. I'm wondering if any stock (sectors) remained completely untouched (positive or negative) [link] [comments]  |
| Long on oil Companies and what you can learn from my mistakes Posted: 05 Oct 2020 06:27 AM PDT I recently bought into companies that handle oil. Like BP, Shell, Euronav etc. My reasoning for this investment was that the energy sector is enormously beaten down, that oil consumptions will not disappear during/quite some time after the crises, that these companies make the shift towards renewables, that oil prices will recover eventually and that all these factors will make my investment skyrocket. Now I made some mistakes: At the time I was looking into this particular sector, Berkshire Hathaway bought into some oil-trading companies, Oil prices increased within a short period of time and all these mentioned companies did too. So I fomo'ed into the industry without completing my thorough analysis. E.g. I calculated the intrinsic value of nearly all those companies, the expected % change I could expect etc. But I left out a thorough analysis of the impact of regulations imposed on the industry during the pandemic. So what did I learn?
I may get burned in this investment, this is mainly due to the mentioned fomo-pressure. So far I'm down 16%,which is painful to watch (I could've bought even cheaper) , but I'm confident that the energy sector will finally recover and I'll turn out a profit Have you any thoughts on the industry? Are you invested too? Let me know [link] [comments]  |
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