Stock Market - [X-Post] Trevor Milton is likely a sociopath. You heard it here first, DD inside. |
- [X-Post] Trevor Milton is likely a sociopath. You heard it here first, DD inside.
- Costco Had a Great Quarter. Here’s What Wall Street Is Saying.
- Swaggy's weekend summary of unusual option activity, trending tickers, and some setups for next week.
- I computed real life Volatility examples
- How do I get started?
- Facebook (FB) Stores affect on their stock price
- Please give your opinion on my (First version) DCF Analysis.
- Diegro and other online brokers
- A question about dividend payout and the ex-dividend day.
- Why eBay is a buy
- Putting more $ in to the stock market?
- How much is worth it
| [X-Post] Trevor Milton is likely a sociopath. You heard it here first, DD inside. Posted: 27 Sep 2020 03:43 PM PDT |
| Costco Had a Great Quarter. Here’s What Wall Street Is Saying. Posted: 27 Sep 2020 08:28 AM PDT Still, analysts were quick to applaud the retailer's results, and several raised their price targets. BMO Capital Markets' Kelly Bania reiterated an Outperform rating and raised his target to $385 from $340, writing that she expects "continued momentum for its unique business model, supported by incredible consistency in renewal rates, continued rising executive penetration, and long-term benefits from the current environment." Morgan Stanley's Simeon Gutman reiterated an Overweight rating and raised his target to $360 from $330, writing that this is a rare "buy the dip," as Costco will be able to "steadily grind higher regardless of macro/virus outcomes." Raymond James's Bobby Griffin reiterated an Outperform rating and raised his target to $365 from $355. He notes the shares might not look cheap, but they are on the cusp of a multiyear e-commerce and international expansion, and "the value and services Costco offers its members creates a very resilient business model and a compound earnings growth story, justifying the higher valuation." RBC Capital Markets' Scot Ciccarelli reiterated an Oupterform rating and raised his target to $412 from $400. "We remain bullish on Costco given its ultralow markup process, massive buying scale, growing e-commerce business and 'value' positioning in what will likely be a more difficult economic environment." Stifel's Mark Astrachan reiterated a Buy rating and raised his target to $380 from $375. He says the stock's "premium multiple [is] justified by strong comp growth, share gains, and a durable and cash-generative business model." Telsey Advisory Group's Joseph Feldman reiterated an Outperform rating and raised his target to $390 from $385. "Broadly, we expect Costco to be one of the winners in the 2020 holiday season." Source:Barron's [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 27 Sep 2020 03:34 PM PDT What's up people of r/StockMarket, some of you may have seen my unusual options activity posts in other option's trading sub-reddits. I've decided to put together a little summary for the week that details some trending tickers, option activity, and some setups for next week ( + reasoning for the setup). Mods if this isn't allowed, I won't post again. Here we go: Upcoming EarningsMicron (MU) Earnings are coming up this week. The semi-conductor company has been consistently beating earnings and has seen some growth throughout the pandemic as more companies become increasingly tech-focused with work-from-home orders. Here's a snapshot of their most recent earnings and performance moves day-after the report. What to look for By proxy, companies that will see some related movements to MU's earnings are: AMD, INTC, and NVDA. A good showing from MU will also mean good things for other semi-conductor companies. Here's a look at MU's average options' Implied Volatility (IV) over the last month. We can see that typical IV is in the 40-45% range. When the stock price dropped early September during the crash, we saw IV get up to the 60's. IV has begun to dip back into the 40's meaning there is not a huge move expected off the earnings report. (Stock price is gold vs IV blue line). Economic CalendarWe have some important economic data coming out this week. Here's the outlook: Tuesday 10am: Consumer Confidence Wednesday 8:30am: GDP Q2, Pending Home Sales Thursday 8:30am: Jobless claims Friday 8:30am: Unemployment Rate Full Calendar of Important Events w/ Forecasts (via Bloomberg): Trending StocksMost Mentioned Tickers + Sentiment from Friday This week's trend gainers and losers Losing Hype: TSLA, VALE, NKLA, MSFT, WMT, AAPL* Gaining Hype: BA, VXX, ZM, AAL, UPS, PTON, MU *AAPL was losing hype on the weekly trend, but up on the daily trend Thursday & Friday from a good performance. Consolidating TickersThese tickers are ones that have once been a "meme", but have since settled down, and perhaps a good entry point if your technicals are right, it aligns with your strategy, and want to avoid FOMO-ing into hot stocks. The classic tale of doing the inverse of WSBToday we'll take a look at VALE, a stock that was almost never mentioned a single time in the last month on r/WallStreetBets until September 18th. At that point, the stock had risen 10% in the week before and VALE was then seen all over the comment section of the sub. Comment volume for VALE jumped to 10% of total comment volume on the sub-reddit at which point many WSB members initiated positions. Within the next several trading days the stock tanked 15% leaving WSB holding the bag (yet again). For more details on this, please read "How not to FOMO into trades". Swaggy DD (due diligence) released this week - GME (Gamestop)I. INTRODUCTION When I look at the sentiment surrounding GameStop, it doesn't take very long to see comments like these, yet here we are. What's going on? Are people that stupid? Just jumping on the new console cycle? Idiots not pulling their gains and going to zero? When even r/wallstreetbets thinks the stock is a dud, it must be right? Nearly 120% short interest, yet the stock is up nearly 40% this week. Its no secret GameStop has been hurting. The secular shift to digital has been pressuring them for some time with their highest margin category - used video software – under significant distress. Each year their gross margins contract with net income in the red these past few quarters. Everybody has written them off as the easiest short in the world, however I'm going to try to explain whats going on and tell you that buying GameStop may not be as bad as you think. II. CONSOLES Just to start things off, you have to remember we're in the beginnings of the new console cycle. But what does that even mean? Well the advent of new consoles means new trade-ins, new product, new customers, and a fresh spike in GameStop's popularity. Sales have stagnated the years prior, and they are all but certain to go up and remain elevated for the next 1-2 years. Note that against all counts, the company was actually profitable during the 2019 holiday season, with new consoles you can bet that they will annihilate all expectations and proceed into 4-8 more positive quarters off the cyclic shift. This is pretty unanimous, and everyone accepts that they will start reporting positive going forward. In fact, new console cycles are where GME has historically spiked. Click here to continue reading the DD Swaggy Play & Trade Idea - JPMWhat's up everyone, market has been choppy as FK and almost un-tradeable the last several weeks. Still, not much has changed fundamentally over the last 3-4 weeks and here we are with a 10-20% haircut on stocks depending which tickers you follow. I've been sitting on my hands for a while, but entered a trade today. Keep in mind this is not advice on what or how to trade, simply posting my trade here and if you want to discuss some opinions, lets do it. Why JPM? It has been in a fairly tight channel over the last 3-4 months, staying in the range of $90-100. I entered this exact play back in July when the stock dropped to similar levels to where it is currently at right now, and closed at max profit back then. Check out the full play details (reasoning + risks) Unusual Option ActivitySome big volume in option flow was spotted this week in some names: AAPL, ADBE, C, CLDR, ORCL, PBR, and WRTC. ADBE – Adobe ADBE saw a massive call block come through on Friday. 5,000 January 2021 CALLs at the $420 strike (10% ITM). Total position size was $40 million. ADBE was about 10-15% off the recent highs and has bounced multiple times off the $470 level. IF this sell-off is truly over, we might see a good bounce in tech and some of these block purchases seem to be positioning for it. What's on the watchlist this weekStill looking for a bounce in tech. Here are some stocks I either like and have a position or I'm looking for entry points on (stock price + Implied Volatility charts) AAPL - Apple AAPL is currently near a short-term low. Does it have room to go down more? Sure, but I think when you dig below the current levels you will be finding more buyers as we get closer to $100. IMO a good entry point for a long-term hold. IV is also moderately high for options. They are set to report earnings by end of October and also have catalyst of rumored 5g iPhone release. AMD - Advanced Micro Devices AMD has shown some strength at the $78 level of support through these last few weeks of downside pressure. AMD also reports towards the end of October, but will have some volatility into MU (Micron Technology) earnings next week. IV is pretty high right now for AMD to buy calls. A more efficient play might be to sell CSP (cash-secured put), credit PUT spreads, or purchase shares. DOCU - Docusign A second-wave covid-play I'm looking at is DOCU. DOCU just reported earnings that weren't accepted well by Wall Street. The stock has dropped nearly 30% since it's peak of $290 not long ago. You can also see the IV has dropped significantly after earnings. Average IV was as high as 140% pre-earnings and is now sitting around 55%. IMO this is a fundamentally strong company with solid branding. If you've ever needed to sign important documents online, chances are you've used Docusign before and it is quickly becoming a household name. I like this play for a long-term hold and also as we get into the fall months as a covid play. [link] [comments]  |
| I computed real life Volatility examples Posted: 27 Sep 2020 05:42 AM PDT What is volatility? How is it computed? -> Real life examples Volatility is a key factor to take into account when building a portfolio in order to qualify if an asset is more or less risky. Volatility appears in Modern Portfolio Theory and has gained a wide acceptance across the financial industry. What is volatility? Volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty related to the size of changes in price. It is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time, in particular an asset is called volatile when there are big swings in price in either directions. Volatility is relevant because: The wider the swings in an investment's price, the harder emotionally it is to not worry It can define position sizing in a portfolio Price volatility presents opportunities to buy assets cheaply and sell when overpriced MATHEMATICAL DEFINITION (see figure attached) The volatility is just the standard deviation of the returns. The standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation of a quantity, the returns. It reflects the average amount a stock's price has differed from the mean over a period of time. Volatility is without a unit and is expressed as a percentage. While variance captures the dispersion of returns around the mean of an asset in general, volatility is a measure of that variance bounded by a specific period of time. We can report daily volatility, weekly, monthly, or annualized volatility VOLATILITY IN REAL LIFE I computed the annualized volatility of different U.S. stocks using data from Yahoo Finance (see figure attached) The annualized volatility of these stocks is in the range of 20-40% with an outlier: Netflix (NFLX) at 52%. Also, UPS and IBM have the lowest volatility of the group. If we plot the prices of NFLX and IBM as a function of time we see a lot more variations on NFLX than on IBM (see figure attached) The overall performance of Netflix is very good, so volatility is not a bad thing. However holding this stock would have been quite emotional, especially in the past 2-3 years. Volatility is not only useful to characterize stocks, it is also used for everything that has a price. Let's look at the annualized volatility of different assets (see figure attached) To summarize: - Volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty related to the size of changes in price - Volatility is often associated with risk: the higher the volatility, the riskier the asset - The higher the volatility the harder emotionally it is to not worry Full article: https://thenextwave.blog/volatility/ [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 27 Sep 2020 11:44 AM PDT I'm 20yrs old and I know absolutely nothing about the stock market. It's completely foreign to me but I want to learn. What are some tips or important things I should learn before diving in? Any good reading material? My overall goal is to start earning so I can eventually buy a house, increase my savings, and just have some extra money for my future. [link] [comments]  |
| Facebook (FB) Stores affect on their stock price Posted: 27 Sep 2020 03:37 PM PDT fellow redditors, what are your thoughts on facebook stores? apparently its a huge catalyst for the company and gives them an avenue to compete with the likes of Shopify. Your Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Please give your opinion on my (First version) DCF Analysis. Posted: 27 Sep 2020 12:31 PM PDT COMPANY BEING USED: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LII/chart?p=LII I got all the numbers from other sheets so I added the reference numbers underneath the DCF analysis. If you have any questions let me know! I've used a projected method for this one, which might be the reason for the low Intrinsic value. Instead of an analysis prediction method. I will add the analyst later on, those results might be more realistic. But for now I just wanna know if I'm doing the right thing. - I added a 1,5% Safety margin because I'd rather have a too low than a too high price. - Perpetual growth is 1% less than global economy. - Beta and RFR are from yahoo finance. - Expected Market Return is average S7P 500 return. What stands out the most is that the current stock price is $263 and my intrinsic value is $95. Lennox their financials haven't been to good for the past 3 years (Incl. TTM). But idk... seems a bit unrealistic, i'd need a second opinion on that. I really really need feedback on this because no one in my friendgroup knows about this stuff :) [link] [comments]  |
| Diegro and other online brokers Posted: 27 Sep 2020 03:36 AM PDT So i want to start trading, at first for experience and knowledge so I've decided to go with low fee online brokerage firms. I've searched a lot and found out about few brokers like ibkr and diegro(Im european btw). Ibkr sounded good but the account requirements were too much, another choice was diegro.I im curious about your opinions of diegro or if you guys know any other "begginer friendly" brockerage platforms [link] [comments]  |
| A question about dividend payout and the ex-dividend day. Posted: 27 Sep 2020 10:13 AM PDT If I owned 50 shares of a stock before the ex-dividend day and then added another 50 shares afterwards, does that mean that only the first 50 shares qualify for the dividend or all 100 ultimately qualify? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 26 Sep 2020 11:23 PM PDT Why eBay is a buy? Recently a very known company has caught my attention, and after learning it unique stock style, I decided to share with you the potential of eBay. For my opinion eBay has reached it's bottom and now, the closer we'll get to it's earning date the higher the stock will get. I have no doubt that eBay gonna get higher eps and revenue than the forecasts, like almost every time. Recently eBay started a small downtrend like all nasdaq at the beginning of September, from almost 62$ per share it went down to 50$ per share, and the reason for that? Because of nothing, it went down just because of nasdaq, but we all know eBay has sold so much because of the Corona, and even now more because all the corona cases got higher and made the citizens continue buying online. As you can see in the chart, in the last couple of days when nasdaq had it's roughest days, eBay closed around the 0%, that's impressive because all other stocks lost much more in September. When eBay was 62$ per share (before September), analysts still defined eBay a buy. The only problem that can hurt eBay stock is the Nasdaq fall... (although I think that we are getting out of this downtrend soon, at least until the elections...) (This post is only an opinion and made for learning) —————————————————————————- I have added eBay's chart with my analysis in my telegram channel: https://t.me/StockMarketAnaIysis [link] [comments]  |
| Putting more $ in to the stock market? Posted: 27 Sep 2020 08:11 AM PDT In March I should've dumped money in, but I did not know what to buy, so I didn't.... I am afraid it is "too high" to do now, and so I am sort of waiting for a big drop. Thoughts? Why am I being down-voted? mean [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 27 Sep 2020 03:35 AM PDT So I just opened my first bank account at the age of 18, and decided to try and get into investing right away. Around how much money would I have to invest with for profits to be "worth it" [link] [comments]  |
| You are subscribed to email updates from r/StockMarket - Reddit's front page of the stock market, financial news. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
No comments:
Post a Comment